Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-11-2010 (Seattle 5, Baltimore 1)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	-0.361	0.000	-0.396	0.035	0.000	5.60	22
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.889	0.889	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.453	0.304	0.000	0.149	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.252	0.757	0.000	0.495	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-1.600	-2.004	0.000	0.957	-0.553	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	2.196	0.766	0.000	1.430	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.758	0.068	0.000	0.954	-0.264	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.351	-1.449	0.000	1.098	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.287	0.250	0.000	-0.537	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.834	-0.834	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Brandon League	0.368	0.000	0.368	0.000	0.000	3.31	5
SEA	SEA Luckbox	1.517	1.517	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
BAL	David Hernandez	-1.180	0.000	-1.657	0.477	0.000	7.59	17
BAL	Matt Wieters	-0.198	-0.462	0.000	0.264	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Garrett Atkins	0.520	0.274	0.000	0.246	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Julio Lugo	-0.829	-0.979	0.000	0.150	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Miguel Tejada	-0.752	-0.300	0.000	0.101	-0.553	0.00	0
BAL	Cesar Izturis	-1.117	-1.127	0.000	0.274	-0.264	0.00	0
BAL	Nolan Reimold	-0.369	-0.690	0.000	0.321	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Adam Jones	2.053	-0.397	0.000	2.450	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Nick Markakis	0.918	0.516	0.000	0.402	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Ty Wigginton	-0.835	-0.835	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Jason Berken	-0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000	0.000	5.94	6
BAL	Cla Meredith	-1.162	0.000	-1.162	0.000	0.000	14.84	3
BAL	BAL Luckbox	0.264	0.264	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Dave Trembley	-0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Camden Yards	0.918	0.000	0.000	-0.918	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Josh Wilson (2.196 NRuns: 0.766 hitting, 1.430 fielding)
Seattle Luckbox: 1.517 NRuns
Seattle fielding: 4.581 NRuns
The Three MuskRainiers (Langerhans, Wilson, Saunders): 3.407 NRuns

Adam Jones (2.053 NRuns: -0.397 hitting, 2.450 fielding)
Nick Markakis: 0.918 NRuns
Rest of Orioles lineup: -3.580 NRuns
Number of Orioles with negative defensive NRuns: 0
Baltimore pitching: -3.009 NRuns

******

The average pitching staff should give up about 5.5 runs per game in Camden Yards with an average defense, so add in some craptastic pitching by the Orioles today, and there's no way even the Mariners could screw this up. Even given some overacheiving defense by a mediocre Orioles defense, the Orioles had no chance with a Mariners-like performance at the plate: Only Garrett Atkins and Nick Markakis posted positive hitting contributions.

After a subpar outing his last time out, Brandon League ran a 3.31 EXERA in snuffing out an 8th inning O's rally and pitching a scoreless 9th. It may not be a matter of if, but when he supplants David Aardsma as the Mariners closer, and "when" will probably come at some point this season regardless of how the team is doing. If Aardsma doesn't implode, look for the M's to sell high on their incumbent closer. They've got a superior replacement waiting in the wings.

There wasn't a bad enough performance to justify tabbing anyone a goat, but Jose Lopez laid an egg at the plate in his -1.600 NRun performance, with a 0.957 performance in the field offsetting a -2.004 NRun failboat at the plate plus (or in this case minus) -0.553 NRuns for running out the back end of a GIDP.

Josh Wilson's hot bat has created a question of what to do with him when Jack Wilson returns in the next few days... and KIRO AM talking head Mike Salk has humbly suggested giving Lopez a game or two off per week with his bat ice cold, and perhaps shifting Figgins to 3B so Josh Wilson can play 2B and stay in the lineup. Clearly, Josh is going to cool off at some point, but cooled off Josh Wilson could still be an effective contact and gap bat in this lineup, and rotating days off among the infield to get him playing time in a Jeff Keppinger or Ronnie Belliard sort of way may be a useful approach as long as he's helping the M's at the plate.

As for Michael Saunders, his emergence as a hitter could finally be for real this time, and Milton Bradley's forthcoming return produces a question with an easier, and sadder, answer: One of Ken Griffey Jr or Mike Sweeney has to go so Bradley can man the primary DH role and save his troubled legs. Even after Sleepygate, the easy choice to keep between the two old men is Junior, if you don't DL him if he continues to slump... at the plate, not in his barca-lounger.

Again, the average pitcher in Camden Yards gives up more runs than average, so don't be too discouraged with Cliff Lee's EXERA. Though some line drives and flyballs inflated his number, his performance wasn't too far from average today. He did get a lot of defensive help today, however.

An idea for MLB realignment, Part Two: How to Realign the Revised Major Leagues

Part One looked at two likely candidates for expansion if/when MLB decides to expand within the next ten years. This next part will look at how the two new teams and the resulting realignment will help MLB's scheduling logistics.

Right now the two Major Leagues, American League and National League, are fractured into an uneven arrangement. The AL has 14 teams frayed into three uneven divisions of five, five and four teams while the NL has 16 teams frayed into divisions of five, six and five. This arrangement was made necessary after the addition of teams in Tampa Bay and Arizona back in 1997 in order to assure that every team had a league opponent. Had they been divided evenly into two leagues of 15 teams, each league would have had an odd number of teams, meaning there would always be at least one team without an league opponent, which would have necessitated constant interleague play, taking away the unique draw of interleague play.

Adding two teams would now give us two leagues with 16 teams, which would allow more even division distributions and give every team a mathematically equal chance of winning their division. As the NFL did when they expanded to 32, MLB would have to expand to 8 divisions, each holding four teams. This would make the playoff system simpler and eliminate the need for the wildcard: Every four-team division's champion makes the playoffs, and that's it.

However, if we were to put both expansion teams in the 14 team AL, that would create a relative competitive imbalance in the short term, possibly the long term. Both teams would be relatively non-competitive their first few years, giving the other AL teams an easier schedule. However, awarding one expansion team to each league keeps the leagues uneven.

Therefore, as was done with Milwaukee's move to the NL during the 1994 expansion, you would need to move an NL team to the AL. You could make a case for a number of potential teams to make the move, but my pick to shift to the AL is the San Diego Padres.

- Geographically, there's a cluster of eight teams on or west of the Rockies, which makes forming the new AL and NL West divisions easy. However, among them are 5 NL teams and 3 AL teams, making an NL West team the best suited to make the move.

- The Padres don't have as much rivalry history with other NL teams and, sad to say, wouldn't be missed by NL West teams. The Giants and Dodgers have significant NL history, and the Diamondbacks are also one of the NL's World Series champions, plus their relative proximity to the Dodgers and Rockies makes it more sensible to keep them in the NL West

So the Padres would move to the AL, and each league would get one of the expansion teams. As I mentioned, teams would be clustered geographically in attempting to form the new divisions, to help reduce travel time between divisional cities. For example, right now the Texas Rangers are in the AL West, requiring a long flight to play one of their divisional foes. By moving them to a division with other southern AL teams, this would reduce their travel burden significantly. And vice versa: Seattle, Anaheim and Oakland would not have to fly to the central US as much, replacing those flights with flights to closer San Diego.

It turns out that all teams fit for the most part neatly into clusters of eight. Here is a map outlining all 32 teams in this scenario, with color coding to indicate how the divisions would be aligned. The only team that still gets shafted in terms of geography is Colorado, which is closer to the central and northern cluster of teams, but is the odd team out among those clusters, while helping the western cluster fill out their need for eight teams. Here in text is the new alignment:

AL West: Seattle, Anaheim, Oakland, San Diego

This division remains mostly intact, and would likely see a boost in pitching stats as the Rangers and their launchpad ballpark are ditched for San Diego's cavernous Petco Park. With all four teams boasting pitchers' parks, offensive numbers will take a tumble.

AL North: Minnesota, Chicago White Sox, Detroit, Cleveland

The AL Central stays mostly intact, losing only the perpetually non-competitive Kansas City Royals. This could become the most competitive four team division in the revised MLB.

AL South: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Texas, Charlotte

This new division is a hodge-podge of castoffs plus the expansion team in Charlotte. It would be the anti-AL West, with all four teams boasting hitters parks (Charlotte would likely begin play in Knights Stadium, which is one of the International League's hitter friendliest parks). Tampa's probably got the most pitcher friendliest park, and only because it's generally neutral or slightly hitter friendly.

AL East: New York Yankees, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore

This division remains mostly intact, losing only the Tampa Bay Rays (much to the relief of the Yankees and Red Sox). Not to the relief of the Red Sox or Yankees, the new playoff format means no wildcard, and the division winner takes all.

NL West: San Francisco, Colorado, Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona

The NL West stays intact save for San Diego's defection. Losing the cavern in San Diego should provide a slight increase in ERAs and batting numbers for the division.

NL North: Milwaukee, Chicago Cubs, Omaha, Cincinnati

The NL Central gets exploded, with the largest fragment making up the NL North, joined by the expansion team from Omaha. Like the AL South, this should be a hitters division: the Cubs and Reds play in hitters parks, and while Milwaukee's park trends slightly towards pitching, Omaha's TD Ameritrade Park was modeled closely after old Rosenblatt Stadium, which was a friendly park for hitters.

NL South: St Louis, Houston, Atlanta, Florida

Two Central teams land in the new NL South with two NL East defectors. The Marlins will have a new stadium by this point and jury's out on how it will play, though the humidity has trended friendly towards hitters. However, Atlanta and St Louis have pitching friendly parks, which along with Houston's weirdo park should at least make things interesting.

NL East: Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New York Mets, Washington

Pittsburgh gets deposited with the remaining NL East teams in a revised NL East. Philly's launchpad provides a fine juxtaposition to the pitching-neutral parks of the other three teams.

Obviously, there's no way to know how these teams will play in 5-10 years (though it's likely that the Royals under their present penny-pinching ownership will not be competitive), so there's no way to know if these divisions will be fiercely competitive or a walkover for given teams. But the new alignment's geographical clustering will reduce travel time for every team, and will reduce costs as air travel's costs continue to rise.

Net Runs Special, 5-9-2010: Dallas Braden's Perfect Game (Oakland 4, Tampa Bay 0)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TBR	James Shields	-2.135	0.000	-1.359	-0.776	0.000	5.82	18
TBR	Dioner Navarro	-0.468	-0.468	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Carlos Pena	-0.344	-0.468	0.000	0.124	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Ben Zobrist	-1.427	-0.282	0.000	-1.145	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Evan Longoria	-2.088	-0.663	0.000	-1.425	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Jason Bartlett	-0.552	-0.663	0.000	0.111	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Carl Crawford	-0.155	-0.468	0.000	0.313	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	BJ Upton	1.558	-0.282	0.000	1.840	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Gabe Kapler	1.370	-0.282	0.000	1.652	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Willy Aybar	-0.663	-0.663	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Andy Sonnanstine	-0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000	0.000	4.25	3
TBR	Dan Wheeler	0.471	0.000	0.471	0.000	0.000	0.00	3
TBR	TBR Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Joe Maddon	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
OAK	Dallas Braden	-0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000	0.000	4.46	27
OAK	Landon Powell	1.026	1.026	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
OAK	Daric Barton	1.046	0.125	0.000	0.817	0.104	0.00	0
OAK	Adam Rosales	-0.108	-0.167	0.000	0.059	0.000	0.00	0
OAK	Kevin Kouzmanoff	2.017	1.197	0.000	0.820	0.000	0.00	0
OAK	Cliff Pennington	-1.041	-1.035	0.000	-0.006	0.000	0.00	0
OAK	Eric Patterson	-0.082	-1.755	0.000	1.673	0.000	0.00	0
OAK	Rajai Davis	0.325	-0.980	0.000	1.305	0.000	0.00	0
OAK	Ryan Sweeney	1.129	0.990	0.000	0.139	0.000	0.00	0
OAK	Eric Chavez	-0.049	-0.049	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
OAK	OAK Luckbox	0.776	0.776	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
OAK	Bob Geren	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Oakland Coliseum	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

How Net Runs works

Dallas Braden: -0.568 NRuns... 4.46 EXERA
Oakland defense: 4.807 NRuns

Tampa Bay Rays: -4.471 NRuns
Rays hitters: -4.239 NRuns

******

Working in Braden's favor, aside from an impressive all-around effort by his defense, was a 20 mph wind in from RF. Nobody was taking anyone deep in this game, and any hitter would have been hard pressed to hit it over the outfielders. Only two players did hit it more than halfway between the infield dirt and the fence: Adam Rosales in the 5th and Landon Powell in the 8th. The A's outfielders did not have to move back for a single flyball or line drive in this game. Add in the A's getting some balls to drop in front of the defense, plus some help from bad Rays defense, and the A's had this game in the bag.

Hidden behind the perfecto was a great and strange play for the A's. With Cliff Pennington on 1st and two outs in the 4th, Daric Barton lined a single off pitcher James Shields. Pennington, running on contact, took 3rd base. As Pennington beat the throw from CF B.J. Upton, Barton made a wide turn for 2nd to draw 3B Evan Longoria off the bag in what initially appeared to be a rundown.

It appeared to be some bad baserunning by Barton, but was actually a smart play on his part: Nobody else backed up the bag at 3rd and Longoria could not come after Barton without leaving Pennington free to do exactly what he did as Longoria came well off the bag after Barton: Pennington took off for home, drawing a hurried throw from Longoria to the catcher Dioner Navarro.

Pennington turned back and dove for 3rd. James Shields got to the bag in time for a close play but Navarro hurried a throw wide of the bag and Shields, himself rushed, muffed the throw from Navarro as the ball tumbled past him into foul ground. Pennington got up and scored easily as Barton, who took 2nd easily once Longo threw home, scooted to 3rd on the bad throw before Shields could retrieve the ball. It was a smart play by Barton to seize the extra bag given the circumstances, as the Rays could not come after him without risking Pennington going home and scoring. Turns out Longoria couldn't resist, and the chain of events led to an even worse conclusion.

Back to Braden: He was lucky that his five line drives (two in the final frame of his perfecto) all found fielders. But he got a good share of pop outs and strikeouts, and again their flyballs didn't have much of a chance with the wind pushing them back. Nonetheless, as the A's found out at the plate, the strong wind also improves the chances of bloop hits finding the grass for base hits.

Congratulations not just to Dallas Braden but to the Oakland A's defense for making sure not a single Ray reached base.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-9-2010 (Seattle 8, Anaheim 1)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Ervin Santana	-2.978	0.000	-2.978	0.000	0.000	7.94	20
ANA	Mike Napoli	-0.266	-0.711	0.000	0.308	0.137	0.00	0
ANA	Kendry Morales	-0.593	-0.521	0.000	0.145	-0.217	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	-0.033	-1.219	0.000	1.186	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Brandon Wood	-0.507	-0.507	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	-0.758	-0.758	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	2.261	0.052	0.000	2.209	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Reggie Willits	2.509	0.096	0.000	2.413	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	-1.210	-0.407	0.000	-0.803	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Robb Quinlan	-0.866	-0.866	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Michael Ryan	-0.324	-0.324	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Brian Stokes	-1.805	0.000	-1.805	0.000	0.000	15.51	4
ANA	ANA Luckbox	1.908	1.908	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	-0.208	-0.208	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	-1.269	0.000	-1.269	0.000	0.000	5.66	22
SEA	Adam Moore	0.495	0.495	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.056	-0.081	0.000	0.000	0.137	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-1.137	-1.026	0.000	-0.111	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-1.776	-0.308	0.000	-0.358	-1.110	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	4.074	4.460	0.000	0.432	-0.818	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	2.795	1.664	0.000	1.131	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.999	1.794	0.000	1.178	-0.973	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	2.434	-0.176	0.000	2.237	0.373	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.855	-0.855	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Brandon League	-0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000	0.000	5.94	2
SEA	Shawn Kelley	0.235	0.000	0.235	0.000	0.000	2.25	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.592	0.384	0.000	0.208	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	4.635	0.000	0.000	-4.635	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Josh Wilson (4.074 NRuns: 4.460 hitting, 0.432 fielding, -0.818 running)
Josh Wilson, Michael Saunders and Franklin Gutierrez: 7.918 batting NRuns
Mariners with negative batting NRuns: 5
Mariners outfield: 4.546 fielding NRuns
Mariners baserunning: -2.391 NRuns

Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits: 4.770 NRuns
Rest of Anaheim Angels: -9.340 NRuns
Anaheim Luckbox: 1.908 NRuns

Goat: Ervin Santana (-2.978 pitching NRuns)

******

FINALLY, we see production against a non-crappy pitcher and the Mariners score a huge slump-busting 8-1 win, hours after hitting coach Alan Cockrell was deposed and replaced with AAA hitting coach Alonzo Powell. While Wilson and Saunders did show progress in Tacoma working with Powell, it'd be premature and rash to credit the offensive outburst to Powell. Most of the lineup still came up empty, especially the still-slumping Chone Figgins, who turned in the weakest hitting performance for the M's today (-1.026 batting NRuns).

Jason Vargas got a LOT of help from the outfield in another narrowly passable performance (5.66 EXERA). Like Doug Fister, he is not nearly as good as his numbers indicate, but Vargas need only throw strikes face his ~27 batters and get the team deep enough into the game to minimize the load on the bullpen.

Aside from most of the bats still not producing, one overlooked weakness that remains after today's win is bad baserunning. Mild rumors passed by me that 3B coach Mike Brumley appears to be making some poor decisions with runners approaching the hot corner that may or may not have cost the M's a few runs. Twice today runners got thrown out at home, and Josh Wilson's triple off the wall got wiped out by inattention on a pickoff by an otherwise abused Mike Napoli (4 SB allowed today), though much of the alleged criticism is with Brumley holding runners on base hits when they could easily score. I'm not sure how much to make of that, but baserunning decisions that involve passing through Brumley's signals should be watched a bit more closely as the season progresses.

Overall, this is a great win that the M's really needed, but more needs to be seen out of key bats in the lineup, and the baserunning continues to remain an issue to watch, as the M's head into a day off and a road trip.

An idea for MLB realignment, Part One: Two Expansion Teams

This will run in two parts: Part One will look at two suitable, if not likely sites for MLB to expand, while Part Two will cover how the divisions and leagues would be best re-aligned.

I've talked about the idea of expansion before, and as things stand there's really not a market for MLB expanding domestically. However, time, an economic revival and rich men's ambition (including the rise of a new commissioner following Bud Selig's retirement) could lead to an opportunity for MLB to add two new teams in the next decade or so.

I don't foresee any potential expansion happening overseas or in Mexico. Every major US sports league has explored the idea of going to Europe, Mexico or Pacific Asia, but the reason you haven't seen it is simple: Travel logistics would simply make basing 1-2 teams overseas infeasible (domestic jet travel, let alone international jet travel, is expensive, and not getting any cheaper or easier), and Mexico's political and crime issues, not to mention the nation's relative poverty, make basing a team in Mexico City, Monterrey or similar cities too difficult to make it worth a league's while.

But while the recession has hit America hard, and while (as I mentioned before) many of MLB's potential markets aren't attractive fits right now, there could be development in two markets that would provide the opportunity to expand to 32 teams, even out the leagues and finally re-align the leagues and divisions in a way that makes competitive and geographical sense. This probably doesn't happen anytime in the next few years, but as the economy settles and evolves, and as Bud Selig hands the MLB keys to a new Commissioner, the league could look to finally fix their fractured league alignment, expand their revenue streams and give two new domestic markets an expansion team.

Here are the two markets that would be best equipped to take on an MLB franchise. One is fairly obvious. The other is such a psychological outlier than your first reaction may be "No way" but in light of the shortcomings in other markets and what this 2nd market has to offer, this market is probably the best fit for Expansion Franchise #2.

#1. Charlotte, NC: Yes, earlier I said that pro sports hadn't taken well to the area despite being a hotbed for college and minor league baseball. But continued economic growth despite the recession (even in banking, which was the hardest hit sector) and consistent or growing attendance figures in the NFL, NBA (as the Bobcats have finally began winning) and even with the AAA (not quite) Charlotte Knights indicates that interest in pro sports in the area is growing instead of waning, and that the economy not only hasn't swayed fans from buying tickets, but sees Charlotte fans patronizing major pro sports even more than ever before. The market Nate Silver once called the "one place that would clearly be viable for the 31st major league franchise" has tried in the past to lure an MLB team (Expos, Marlins), but their best bet for a team is likely as one of MLB's expansion markets should they expand to 32.

Charlotte's biggest challenge would be funding and building a baseball stadium. With no model in place to throw one up in the foreseeable future, the hard sell would be convincing an owner to eat a loss playing in MLB-capable Knights Stadium (which even with hasty expansion probably wouldn't seat more than 20K-25K) way out in Fort Mill, SC until a new stadium could be built in Downtown Charlotte. The AAA Knights have been repeatedly stymied in getting funding for a new stadium: Could it be civic interests are holding out for an MLB team, not wanting to spend money on a AAA facility with AAA capacity if they can get an MLB team later... and then have to build them a 35K seat facility?

Charlotte would serve at this point as a fine addition that few would argue with in the event of expansion. The 2nd best addition, however, will lead a lot of people to recoil.

#2. Omaha, NE: Now how in the hell could the 59th largest US metropolitan area have the inside track on an MLB expansion franchise over other major metropolitan areas like Portland, San Antonio, Indianapolis and Las Vegas? Well, there's one very big reason.


TD Ameritrade Park is scheduled to be completed by 2011, and will open with 24,000 seats, with the capability to expand to 35,000 "if need be".

Now... with the AAA Omaha Royals moving to a smaller, suburban ballpark, why would the city of Omaha spend $128 million in public money to build such a large facility if its only tenants are the College World Series, an expansion UFL Football team and the Creighton University baseball team?

The likely, unspoken answer is that Omaha, a city of 430,000 that has seen steady population and economic growth with little recession over the last few decades, would like to net themselves an MLB team someday, and a big baseball stadium with a host of amenities gives them a big edge over other potential markets much bigger than the 830K Omaha-Council Bluffs metro area.

- Portland has a liberal civic government facing several civic projects and as a result they're very reluctant to earmark significant public money for a stadium to replace ancient and undersized PGE Park, which BTW is woefully insufficient to support an MLB team.

- Las Vegas' tourist economy collapsed with the recession (they have some of the nation's highest foreclosure and unemployment rates), like Portland they have a AAA park in Cashman Field unsuitable for MLB, and the population largely consists of expatriates who bring their allegiances of their hometown teams with them. As a Vegas native I can attest there is not a lot of civic pride among the locals, and they're not going to fill the seats in a new baseball stadium, especially for a struggling expansion team.

- San Antonio has a huge population but the average wage is very low for a large city, meaning very limited disposable income that won't fill the coffers for an MLB team, plus AA ballpark Nelson Wolff Stadium is like the others unsuitable for MLB.

- Indianpolis is a relatively sizable and centralized market, but like the other cities they lack the stadium needed to support a team in the short term, plus it's doubtful they can procure the funding for a new stadium given the region just invested heavily in building Lucas Oil Stadium. Plus much of their economy rests in manufacturing, which is highly prone to business and job losses that can debilitate the local economy (as we've seen with cities like Detroit and Cleveland).

Other similar markets like Oklahoma City, Memphis, Nashville, Louisville and Albuquerque don't have the economic stability, the regional centralization and hub-status and, of course, the stadium facilities to support an MLB team. Omaha provides a huge advantage that not only can they provide a ready-made facility to use at once, but a prospective team won't have to worry about procuring a new stadium, since the stadium they would need is already in place. The capacity at TD Ameritrade Stadium can be quickly and permanently expanded to 35,000 seats at minimal additional cost.

Alongside that, Omaha has a steady economy buoyed by a mix of a growing tech industry, banking, health administration, food production and the U.S. Military, which discounts the corporate and affiliated presence of several major corps. And plus, the locals are very much into sports: The College World Series routinely packs Rosenblatt Stadium (soon to be demolished). The AAA Omaha Royals have seen a spike in attendance over the last couple years despite fielding weak, non-competitive PCL teams. The newly created UFL, fresh off their first season, had the pick of the U.S. litter for expansion, yet decided to award an expansion team to Omaha. The city even created an Omaha Sports Commission to oversee the development of rec, amateur and pro sports in Omaha due to their consistent and growing popularity.

Omaha may not be the biggest market for MLB by numbers, but they'll bring the enthusiasm and ticket sales... and they've already got the stadium they need to host a new MLB team. All they need is an ambitious ownership group and an opportunistic MLB front office.

Economic concerns aside, the biggest logistical concerns would be the weather, namely Omaha's presence in the middle of Tornado Alley, and the College World Series. An expansion team could easily work around the latter by scheduling a long road trip during the CWS, and playing a larger slate of home games earlier in the season. You play them earlier instead of later for three reasons: 1) Keep the late-season schedule open in case games need to be made up. 2) The heavier early season schedule helps the team sidestep the spate of postponements that could result during the late summer tornado season. And 3) Since the early seasons of an expansion team will likely be rough, they're better off playing more home games early in the year while the season is fresh and fans still carry hope and enthusiasm... with fewer games towards the end as the team plays out the string.

Part Two covers how MLB would (or at least should) realign to even out the American and National League, while augmenting and improving the existing league structure. Of course, I'll cover which divisions the expansion teams would play in, as well as what teams get moved where.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-8-2010 (Anaheim 4, Seattle 3, 10 innings)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Joe Saunders	-2.031	0.000	-2.283	0.252	0.000	7.57	17
ANA	Mike Napoli	-0.790	-0.576	0.000	-0.214	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kendry Morales	0.332	0.112	0.000	0.220	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	-0.105	-1.028	0.000	0.923	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kevin Frandsen	0.703	-0.099	0.000	0.802	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	0.047	-0.479	0.000	0.419	0.107	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	-1.400	-0.165	0.000	-1.018	-0.217	0.00	0
ANA	Torii Hunter	1.681	0.713	0.000	0.968	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	0.015	-0.256	0.000	0.112	0.159	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	0.760	0.760	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Reggie Willits	-0.652	-0.518	0.000	0.000	-0.134	0.00	0
ANA	Michael Ryan	0.521	0.521	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Ryan Budde	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Jason Bulger	1.089	0.000	1.089	0.000	0.000	-2.60	4
ANA	Kevin Jepsen	0.824	0.000	0.824	0.000	0.000	-2.66	3
ANA	Fernando Rodney	-0.657	0.000	-0.657	0.000	0.000	9.69	3
ANA	Brian Fuentes	0.360	0.000	0.360	0.000	0.000	1.21	3
ANA	Brandon Wood	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	ANA Luckbox	0.556	0.303	0.000	0.253	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	-0.253	-0.253	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Doug Fister	-2.027	0.000	-2.172	0.145	0.000	6.80	21
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.998	-0.998	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.974	-0.762	0.000	-0.212	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.535	-0.719	0.000	0.835	-0.651	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.113	-0.272	0.000	0.602	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.257	-0.373	0.000	0.009	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.707	-0.028	0.000	0.735	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	2.108	-0.064	0.000	2.065	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	2.597	2.066	0.000	0.531	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-0.534	-0.534	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Brandon League	0.214	0.000	0.214	0.000	0.000	2.43	3
SEA	David Aardsma	-1.170	0.000	-1.170	0.000	0.000	11.53	4
SEA	Shawn Kelley	0.004	0.000	0.004	0.000	0.000	4.16	2
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.794	0.541	0.000	0.253	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.556	-0.253	0.000	-0.303	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.486	0.000	0.000	-0.486	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Ichiro (2.597 NRuns: 2.066 hitting, 0.531 fielding)
Pretty close: Franklin Gutierrez (2.108 NRuns: -0.028 hitting, 2.065 fielding, 0.107 running)

Angels Player of the Game: Torii Hunter (1.681 NRuns: 0.713 hitting, 0.968 fielding, many birthdays ruined)
Jason Bulger and Kevin Jepsen: 1.903 NRuns pitching
Fernando Rodney: -0.657 pitching NRuns

Goat: Starting Pitching
Joe Saunders (-2.031 NRuns: -2.283 pitching, 0.252 fielding)
Doug Fister (-2.027 NRuns: -2.172 pitching, 0.145 fielding)

Number of Mariners with more than -1.000 hitting NRuns: 0
Number of Mariners with positive hitting NRuns: 1 (Ichiro)
Mariners defense: 4.710 NRuns
David Aardsma: -1.170 NRuns

******

Unlike several of the other Mariners' losses in this 8 game skid, this one at least had some interesting details.

- This was easily Doug Fister's worst start of the season by EXERA, and still he only allowed three runs. I'd be hard pressed to find a pitcher whose defense has helped him more than Doug Fister's.

- If the Mariners were going to bust out again anyone in the foreseeable future, it was going to be the painfully hittable lefthander Joe Saunders... and yet the M's could only manage three runs off a couple of rallies. The average team would have scored five runs off of Saunders' 5.2 fitful innings today. Did his defense have his back? Well, somewhat... the infield had most of the positive defensive value for the Angels today (2.364 NRuns). Groundouts and double plays saved Saunders from trouble time and again.

- The two Angels relievers with negative EXERAs earned those by coming in with men on base and striking guys out to escape the jam. A negative EXERA means the reliever's performance not only was worth a 0.00 ERA, but saved the potential runs that the preceding pitcher left on base.

- The potential meltdown of David Aardsma's role as closer may not be a matter of if, but when: Even when he gets the job done he gives up enough line drives and walks to indicate his days may be numbered as Seattle's closer. However, if/when that happens the Mariners won't need to go far to find a suitable replacement: Brandon League has run solid EXERAs most of his times out thanks to a healthy diet of groundballs and strikeouts and a lack of liners. Hitters pose a consistently weak threat to score with League on the hill.

- No one hitter kept sinking the Mariners' critical rallies. Rob Johnson did come up empty with two outs twice, but the team's chances of scoring on that 2nd and final K were slim. His -0.998 hitting NRuns were the low mark at the plate. Most of the roster (save for Ichiro's terrific day at the plate) contributed negatively but, while several hitters meekly killed a few key rallies, none of the hitters were a complete black hole for the team. The Mariners scored three runs, but they still didn't hit well. However, their hitting wasn't as bad as the playing-dead outings of the last few days.

But one more however: This "improvement" came against Joe Saunders, arguably one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB (if not for a depleted Angels farm system he'd have been replaced). If three runs and a bunch of dead rallies are all they have to show against Saunders, it still doesn't bode well for their chances in coming games. They need to score 3-4 runs against better pitchers for the death-slump to be officially over.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-7-2010 (Anaheim 8, Seattle 0)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Jered Weaver	1.300	0.000	1.155	0.145	0.000	2.90	22
ANA	Ryan Budde	0.457	0.564	0.000	-0.107	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kendry Morales	1.267	1.210	0.000	0.057	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	1.083	0.566	0.000	0.517	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Brandon Wood	-0.510	-0.883	0.000	0.373	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	0.882	0.465	0.000	0.417	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	1.525	1.379	0.000	0.146	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Torii Hunter	0.994	0.708	0.000	0.286	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	-0.006	-0.314	0.000	0.308	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	-0.560	-0.560	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Reggie Willits	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Michael Ryan	-0.098	-0.098	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Scot Shields	1.248	0.000	1.248	0.000	0.000	-2.03	5
ANA	ANA Luckbox	0.418	0.418	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	-2.557	0.000	-2.557	0.000	0.000	10.61	10
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.866	-0.866	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.624	-0.960	0.000	0.336	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.374	-0.778	0.000	0.297	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.431	-0.555	0.000	0.124	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.029	0.221	0.000	-0.192	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-0.272	0.891	0.000	-1.163	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.593	-0.326	0.000	1.919	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-1.489	-1.390	0.000	-0.099	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.889	-0.672	0.000	0.000	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	Jesus Colome	0.050	0.000	0.050	0.000	0.000	4.06	8
SEA	Brandon League	0.381	0.000	0.236	0.145	0.000	2.24	3
SEA	Kanekoa Texeira	0.422	0.000	0.422	0.000	0.000	2.45	6
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	2.973	0.000	0.000	-2.973	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (1.593 NRuns: -0.326 hitting, 1.919 fielding)

Angels with more than 1.000 NRuns: 5
Angels with negative NRuns: 4

Mariners with positive NRuns: 5
Non-pitchers with positive NRuns: 2
Mariners batting NRuns: -4.435

Goat: Felix Hernandez (-2.557 pitching)

******

The best that can be said for today is that Michael Saunders looked much better at the plate today than he did last year, the defense was solid (1.367 NRuns) and the bullpen (0.708 pitching NRuns) did a fine job in relief. But after that... the only other positive offensive contribution came from Josh Wilson. And most of his positive NRuns came on a walk.

I don't know what was wrong with Felix, but he assured the M's of yet another loss fairly quickly. Meanwhile, we wait for the other shoe to drop, whether that shoe is regression to the mean or personnel changes. This team remains unwatchable.

Milton Bradley: A Reflection of Mariner Fans

Despite the misgivings of damn near every outside observer about his checkered past and temper, Milton Bradley (a wheel and deal acquisition in miraculous return for the overpriced mistake Carlos Silva) came in with expectations of big things for this season. He quickly disappointed, and as the pressure mounted to produce in light of a sputtering start he began to wind up and get angrier with himself, which only made the problem worse. He had flashes of the brilliance everyone expected, but he couldn't even string it together over more than a few games, sometimes not even through an entire game. The frustration led him to rock bottom and he eventually got fed up and gave up but, realizing his hope and respect for what the team is about, he reneged and asked for help to try and salvage things instead of break them down all over again.

Despite the misgivings of damn near every outside observer about their offense, Mariners fans came in with expectations of big things for the 2010 season after Jack Zduriencik's miraculous wheeling and dealing produced several quality acquisitions (Cliff Lee, Casey Kotchman, Bradley, Brandon League). The Mariners quickly disappointed, and as the pressure mounted to produce in light of a slumping start the hitters began to press and try too hard, which only made the problem worse. Sometimes the team showed flashes of the potential everyone saw in them, but they couldn't string together more than a handful of good games... sometimes they couldn't even manage a single good game. The frustrated offense eventually hit rock bottom and the fans got fed up and stopped paying attention. But, realizing their hope and respect for what the team had rebuilt themselves into, they reneged and resorted to begging the GM to try and find a bat or two to salvage things... instead of throwing their hands up and resigning themselves to another lost season.

Of all the things said and written about the Milton Bradley situation, what struck me the most was how it reflected the Mariners in themselves, and how fans react to Milton kind of reflects how fans perceive the Mariners. Some "knew" the guy was going to fail, and now that he's finally melted down they want him gone ASAP even though losing him would cost the Mariners one of their best power bats. Likewise, some fans, remembering the crappy teams of the last few years, believe the team just wasn't cut out to compete, and now that they're losing they've given up on the team since it's likely they're going to spend May caving in and falling out of contention just like those past seasons.

But some realize that Milton's actions following the outburst were far different and more positive, and are willing to show him support believing that this time is going to be different. Likewise, some fans realize that this new GM is different from past regimes, and his smarter approach to team building has given the team real upside and hope that past teams didn't have... and are willing to maintain their support despite an 11-17 start believing that, with 134 games to go and only a 3.5 game deficit for the lead in a weak AL West... this time things are going to be different, that this team isn't going to cave in and fall out of contention in May like past teams but hang in there and get back into the hunt.

As one can say with many media controversies... the situation itself is a microcosm of the world from which it spawned. And how you react to Milton Bradley says a lot more about you than it does about Milton Bradley.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-6-2010 (Tampa Bay 8, Seattle 0)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TBR	Jeff Niemann	0.031	0.000	-0.114	0.145	0.000	4.35	21
TBR	John Jaso	-1.153	-1.153	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Carlos Pena	0.425	0.425	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Ben Zobrist	1.800	0.528	0.000	1.272	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Evan Longoria	0.605	0.605	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Jason Bartlett	0.053	-0.470	0.000	0.523	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Carl Crawford	3.406	2.383	0.000	1.023	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	BJ Upton	0.355	-0.149	0.000	1.240	-0.736	0.00	0
TBR	Gabe Kapler	1.136	0.537	0.000	0.492	0.107	0.00	0
TBR	Willy Aybar	1.163	1.163	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Reid Brignac	-0.628	-0.628	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Joaquin Benoit	0.288	0.000	0.288	0.000	0.000	1.81	3
TBR	Andy Sonnanstine	-0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000	0.000	6.92	3
TBR	TBR Luckbox	0.843	0.843	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Joe Maddon	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-2.000	0.000	-1.217	-0.783	0.000	6.56	13
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.560	-1.189	0.000	0.629	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-1.520	-0.889	0.000	-0.631	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.377	-0.219	0.000	0.489	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.479	-0.509	0.000	1.422	-0.434	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.255	-0.008	0.000	0.263	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	-0.878	-0.030	0.000	-0.848	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.527	-0.900	0.000	0.373	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.986	-0.526	0.000	1.512	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	0.052	0.052	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ian Snell	-2.714	0.000	-2.714	0.000	0.000	11.01	10
SEA	Shawn Kelley	-0.117	0.000	-0.117	0.000	0.000	4.95	4
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	1.833	0.000	0.000	-1.833	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Carl Crawford (3.406 NRuns: 2.383 hitting, 1.023 fielding)

TBR players with NRun totals greater than 1.000: 4
Negative TBR contributors: 3
Tampa Bay luck: 0.843 NRuns

SEA players with NRun totals greater than 0.100: 4
Negative SEA contributors: 7

Positive SEA hitting contributions: 1 (Ken Griffey Jr: 0.052 NRuns)
Negative hitting contributions: 8

SEA hitting: -4.218 NRuns
SEA pitching: -4.048 NRuns
SEA fielding: 2.426 NRuns

He upgrades the defense: Ryan Langerhans (-0.878 NRuns: -0.030 hitting, -0.848 fielding)

Goat Twin Powers Unite:
Ryan Rowland-Smith (-2.000 NRuns: -1.217 pitching, -0.783 fielding)
Ian Snell (-2.714 NRuns pitching)

******

If I had to make a choice between Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell for the next turn in this rotation spot, I'd pick Garrett Olson.

If I had to make a choice between Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Sweeney for the DH spot, I'd pick Mike Carp.

If I had to make a choice between Rob Johnson and Adam Moore at starting catcher, I'd pick Guillermo Quiroz and then call Toronto and try to deal for Jose Molina.

If I had to make a choice between watching this team and listening to their games on the radio, I'd go do something else.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-5-2010 (Tampa Bay 8, Seattle 3)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TBR	Matt Garza	0.089	0.000	0.209	-0.120	0.000	4.00	24
TBR	Dioner Navarro	0.433	0.296	0.000	0.000	0.137	0.00	0
TBR	Carlos Pena	-2.020	-1.502	0.000	-0.518	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Ben Zobrist	-0.371	-0.901	0.000	0.312	0.218	0.00	0
TBR	Evan Longoria	0.570	0.334	0.000	0.236	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Jason Bartlett	2.235	1.613	0.000	0.157	0.465	0.00	0
TBR	Carl Crawford	1.121	-0.063	0.000	1.184	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	BJ Upton	1.405	0.496	0.000	0.909	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Gabe Kapler	1.142	0.527	0.000	0.615	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Pat Burrell	-0.574	-0.574	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Reid Brignac	1.159	1.159	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Grant Balfour	-0.001	0.000	-0.001	0.000	0.000	4.22	3
TBR	TBR Luckbox	1.250	1.250	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Joe Maddon	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	0.195	0.000	0.190	0.005	0.000	4.02	24
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.990	-0.615	0.000	-0.375	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.385	-0.082	0.000	0.467	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.752	-0.960	0.000	0.208	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-1.851	-1.155	0.000	-0.696	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jack Wilson	-0.159	0.265	0.000	-0.424	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	-1.376	0.238	0.000	-1.614	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.530	1.679	0.000	-0.149	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.175	-0.395	0.000	0.220	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.395	-0.395	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.881	-0.766	0.000	-0.115	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-0.481	-0.481	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Sean White	-1.482	0.000	-1.482	0.000	0.000	41.31	1
SEA	Kanekoa Texeira	0.310	0.000	0.310	0.000	0.000	0.33	2
SEA	SEA Luckbox	1.122	1.122	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	1.438	0.000	0.000	-1.438	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Jason Bartlett (2.235 NRuns: 1.613 hitting, 0.157 fielding, 0.465 running)

Rays hitting: 1.385 NRuns
Rays defense: 2.775 NRuns
Rays pitching: 0.208 NRuns

Tampa Bay's luck aka Mariners mistakes: 1.250 NRuns

Top Mariner: Franklin Gutierrez (1.530 NRuns: 1.679 hitting, -0.149 fielding)

Mariners good luck aka Rays mistakes: 1.122 NRuns

Mariners hitting: -2.667 NRuns
Mariners defense: -2.473 NRuns
Sean White: -1.482 NRuns

Goat: Jose Lopez (-1.851 NRuns: -1.155 hitting, -0.696 fielding)

******

The more the losses pile up, the less there is to say about where the Mariners are at... and yet the details seem telling as to why the losses keep mounting. Milton Bradley admitted to personal issues causing him significant stress and he is now out indefinitely. Ryan Langerhans, a typically solid defender, had a horrid game in left as key ball after key ball landed around him instead of in his glove. Sean White lost control and had a horrid game in relief, allowing what was already a likely forthcoming loss to become a rout. Jose Lopez coupled a bad day at the plate with a weak performance in the field. Griffey nearly cleared the wall with a double but still had another mediocre day at the plate. Chone Figgins had another bad day at the plate and now it's starting to look like he's got some issues to work out with the bat. And of course Jack Wilson pulled a hammy while batting in the 3rd and had to leave the game: Replacement Josh Wilson did not do much of a job in relief. The hits just keep on coming metaphorically, even if they're still not coming literally.

Cliff Lee didn't pitch five runs bad, but he was simply decent rather than great against the Rays, and nine times out of ten the M's would still need to give him more run support than they did today.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-4-2010 (Tampa Bay 5, Seattle 2)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TBR	James Shields	1.676	0.000	1.676	0.000	0.000	2.47	24
TBR	Dioner Navarro	0.067	0.067	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Carlos Pena	-1.679	-1.684	0.000	0.005	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Sean Rodriguez	-0.664	-1.032	0.000	0.368	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Evan Longoria	0.599	1.148	0.000	-0.549	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Reid Brignac	-0.456	0.399	0.000	-0.855	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Carl Crawford	-0.777	-0.764	0.000	-0.013	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Ben Zobrist	-0.252	-0.199	0.000	-0.053	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Gabe Kapler	0.630	-0.574	0.000	1.204	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Pat Burrell	-0.365	-0.365	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Willy Aybar	1.027	1.027	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	BJ Upton	-0.315	-0.315	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Rafael Soriano	0.762	0.000	0.762	0.000	0.000	-2.14	3
TBR	TBR Luckbox	2.747	2.747	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Joe Maddon	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

"Player" of the Game: Tampa Bay's own good luck aka Mariners screw-ups (2.747 NRuns)

Actual player of the game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.669 NRuns: 1.151 hitting, 1.518 fielding)

Three errors are bad but not as bad as you think: Jack Wilson (-1.181 NRuns: -0.304 hitting, -1.036 fielding, 0.159 running)

Goat: Milton Bradley (-1.951 NRuns: -1.358 hitting, -0.593 fielding)

******

Jack Wilson's going to get bullseyed for his three errors, but Don Wakamatsu pulled the game's real goat after said goat's strikeout ended the 6th. Milton Bradley had one of his lesser games in the field, but thrust into higher leverage plate appearances as the cleanup hitter, Bradley came up empty and was so upset with himself after his 2nd strikeout ended the 6th that he blew his top in the dugout and Wak immediately pulled him for Ryan Langerhans. Yes, Bradley at his best is one of the M's better players, but his emotions tend to get the best of him when things don't go well, and Wak made the relevant decision to get Milton out of there with his head space in the wrong place.

Even after tiring and getting hit a bit in the end, Rays ace James Shields pitched a great game, and chances weren't likely that the M's were going to score more than 2-3 runs off him. The busy 6th inning for the M's was a big product of luck, though Bradley's final strikeout and the worn-out Ken Griffey Jr's strikeout immediately killed any hope of getting more than the single run they got. So good luck in, bad fortune out, and it all balanced out in the end (unfortunately).

Meanwhile, the team still isn't hitting, film at 11. Add in some relatively poor infield defense, and the M's were doomed.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-2-2010 (Texas 3, Seattle 1, 11 innings)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	CJ Wilson	0.049	0.000	-0.297	0.346	0.000	4.57	21
TEX	Max Ramirez	0.154	0.096	0.000	0.058	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-0.357	-0.357	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	-0.362	-0.159	0.000	-0.203	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	-2.303	-1.562	0.000	-0.741	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	1.623	0.407	0.000	1.057	0.159	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	0.946	-0.408	0.000	1.354	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	1.537	-0.477	0.000	2.014	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	0.968	0.525	0.000	0.877	-0.434	0.00	0
TEX	Ryan Garko	1.025	-0.819	0.000	1.844	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Matt Treanor	-0.313	-0.313	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	0.264	0.264	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.356	-0.356	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Chris Ray	-0.922	0.000	-0.922	0.000	0.000	11.91	3
TEX	Darren Oliver	-0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000	0.000	7.49	3
TEX	Dustin Nippert	-0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000	0.000	8.48	3
TEX	Neftali Feliz	0.073	0.000	0.073	0.000	0.000	3.60	3
TEX	TEX Luckbox	1.132	1.132	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	-0.253	-0.253	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Doug Fister	0.222	0.000	0.141	0.081	0.000	4.07	24
SEA	Rob Johnson	-1.511	-0.784	0.000	-0.727	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.609	-0.510	0.000	1.119	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.271	0.686	0.000	0.181	-0.596	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.056	-0.441	0.000	0.497	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jack Wilson	-0.196	-0.127	0.000	-0.069	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Eric Byrnes	-0.344	-1.548	0.000	1.204	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	2.004	1.568	0.000	0.436	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.075	-1.338	0.000	1.697	-0.434	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-1.248	-1.031	0.000	0.000	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000	0.000	8.94	3
SEA	Brandon League	-0.328	0.000	-0.328	0.000	0.000	6.95	3
SEA	Mark Lowe	-1.233	0.000	-0.550	-0.683	0.000	8.80	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.470	0.217	0.000	0.253	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.004 NRuns: 1.568 hitting, 0.436 fielding)

Banner Bank Building to the Future (With the Crumbling Foundation of the Present):
Mark Lowe (-1.233 NRuns: -0.550 pitching, -0.683 fielding)

We dumped him in part because his defense was awful: Ryan Garko (1.025 NRuns: -0.819 hitting, 1.844 fielding)

Elvis has thankfully left the building: Elvis Andrus (1.623 NRuns: 0.407 hitting, 1.057 fielding, 0.159 running)

TEX Luckbox: 1.132 NRuns
Mariners baserunning: -1.247 NRuns

Mariners Goat: Rob Johnson (-1.511 NRuns: -0.784 hitting, -0.727 fielding)

Texas sized goat: Michael Young (-2.303 NRuns: -1.562 hitting, -0.741 fielding)

Goodbye, team goat: Eric Byrnes (-0.344 NRuns: -1.548 hitting, 1.204 fielding)

******

Of Doug Fister's incredible 2010 starts, this one was the best, as while the other ones were smoke and mirrors, this was a legitimately strong, above average start. He kept the line drives and flyballs to a minimum, so go figure it took the Texas Rangers six innings to hit him.

Other than that, there's not much more to say. The offense didn't produce again. The bullpen had no margin for error and cost the team the lead once the Rangers scored, and with the Mariners running on empty at the plate, it was only a matter of time before the Rangers struck. And that was without designated outs Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Sweeney in the lineup, so save for Eric Byrnes (who was let go after today's game), who you saw is essentially the present and future for the Mariners as of right now, barring any subsequent moves. It's doubtful Ryan Langerhans will be more than a part time player, and as of right now there's no plans to upgrade at catcher.

That's all.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-1-2010 (Texas 6, Seattle 3)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Matt Harrison	-1.236	0.000	-1.236	0.000	0.000	5.93	18
TEX	Matt Treanor	-0.713	-0.713	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-0.542	0.227	0.000	-0.552	-0.217	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	0.274	0.980	0.000	-0.706	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	-0.517	0.142	0.000	-0.659	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	2.860	1.527	0.000	1.333	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	0.903	0.542	0.000	0.361	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	2.127	-0.147	0.000	2.274	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	1.478	0.289	0.000	1.189	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	-1.203	-0.769	0.000	0.000	-0.434	0.00	0
TEX	Chris Ray	-0.676	0.000	-0.676	0.000	0.000	9.85	3
TEX	Frank Francisco	0.003	0.000	0.003	0.000	0.000	4.19	3
TEX	Darren O'Day	0.214	0.000	0.138	0.076	0.000	3.06	3
TEX	TEX Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	-0.511	0.000	-1.263	0.752	0.000	6.64	13
SEA	Rob Johnson	-1.420	-1.108	0.000	0.169	-0.481	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.118	-0.108	0.000	0.226	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.360	0.717	0.000	-0.357	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.849	0.733	0.000	0.116	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jack Wilson	1.175	0.004	0.000	1.171	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	0.727	0.201	0.000	0.526	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-2.673	-0.735	0.000	-1.721	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.173	-0.508	0.000	0.681	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-0.750	-0.750	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jesus Colome	-0.327	0.000	-0.327	0.000	0.000	5.58	6
SEA	Kanekoa Texeira	-0.665	0.000	-0.873	0.208	0.000	7.85	6
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.324	-0.324	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	0.217	0.000	0.000	0.217	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	1.031	1.031	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.952	0.000	0.000	-0.952	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Elvis Andrus (2.860 NRuns: 1.527 hitting, 1.333 fielding)
Fairly close: Julio Borbon (2.127 NRuns: -0.147 hitting, 2.274 fielding)

Felix Hernandez: -1.263 NRuns
Mariners bullpen: -1.200 NRuns

Leading Mariner: Jack Wilson (1.175 NRuns: 0.004 hitting, 1.171 fielding)
SEA Luckbox: 1.031 NRuns
Rest of Mariners: -4.226 NRuns

Goat: Franklin Gutierrez (-2.673 NRuns: -0.735 hitting, -1.721 fielding, -0.217 running)

******

I didn't bother with this one until the next morning because I didn't want to think about it, and I'm sure most of you didn't either. Felix Hernandez had a stiff back. Franklin Gutierrez is in a slump, the old men still aren't hitting, and the Mariners lost again. NEXXXXXXT

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-30-2010 (Texas 2, Seattle 0, 12 innings)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Colby Lewis	3.248	0.000	3.248	0.000	0.000	1.20	27
TEX	Matt Treanor	-0.457	-0.457	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-1.580	-0.960	0.000	-0.620	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	0.122	-0.364	0.000	0.703	-0.217	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	0.094	0.335	0.000	-0.241	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	-0.658	-0.178	0.000	-0.480	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	-0.586	-0.749	0.000	0.163	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	-0.445	-0.591	0.000	0.146	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	0.225	-0.862	0.000	1.087	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ryan Garko	-1.148	-1.148	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	TEX Luckbox	2.555	1.324	0.000	1.231	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	-0.358	0.000	-0.358	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	0.588	-0.095	0.000	0.683	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	-0.098	-0.098	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Darren Oliver	0.174	0.000	0.174	0.000	0.000	0.00	1
TEX	Darren O'Day	0.093	0.000	0.093	0.000	0.000	3.05	2
TEX	Frank Francisco	0.409	0.000	0.409	0.000	0.000	0.80	3
TEX	Neftali Feliz	-0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000	0.000	5.70	3

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	0.240	0.000	0.240	0.000	0.000	3.93	21
SEA	Adam Moore	-0.337	-0.337	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-1.130	-1.275	0.000	0.145	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.033	-0.631	0.000	1.664	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.085	0.083	0.000	0.002	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jack Wilson	-0.518	-0.792	0.000	0.274	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	1.802	0.689	0.000	1.113	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.574	-1.543	0.000	0.969	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	1.618	1.055	0.000	0.563	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.297	-0.297	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.358	0.358	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Eric Byrnes	-1.685	-1.685	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-1.685	-1.204	0.000	0.000	-0.481	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-0.481	0.000	0.000	-0.481	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mark Lowe	0.002	0.000	0.002	0.000	0.000	4.20	3
SEA	David Aardsma	0.360	0.000	0.360	0.000	0.000	1.21	3
SEA	Brandon League	-0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000	0.000	6.51	7
SEA	Sean White	0.276	0.000	0.276	0.000	0.000	0.76	2
	Safeco Field	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Colby Lewis (3.248 pitching NRuns)
Gifts from Mariners mistakes: 2.555 NRuns

Putting the 'suicide' in suicide squeeze: -1.685 NRuns

Welcome to the Sweendawghouse: Mike Sweeney (-1.685 NRuns)

Mariners hitting: -5.579 NRuns

Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Ichiro and Milton Bradley: 4.693 NRuns
All other Mariners: -6.693 NRuns

******

This game was everything about the 2010 Seattle Mariners in a 12 inning nutshell. They got great pitching and wasted a fine starting pitching performance. They made fine defensive plays. They couldn't score any runs. They made an ordinary starting pitcher look incredible. Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Sweeney made easy outs and showed they have next to nothing left as hitters. Eric Byrnes made people angry. Don Wakamatsu overmanaged and made bad decisions as a result. A reliever took a loss he didn't necessarily deserve. Their opponents did everything to give the game away and the Mariners did them tenfold better to give it right back. We saw Sean White. They kept a winnable game close, but blew every chance they got to take it, and instead found a way to lose it.

Don Wakamatsu only received Net Runs credit for the intentional walk he had Brandon League issue, but if you wanted to give him credit for the bad suicide squeeze call (and given it blew up in part because of bad communication, you could make a case for that), then Wak cost the Mariners 2.109 NRuns, easily the most a manager has cost his team in a single game. As it stands, his total is fairly close to the biggest negative contribution by a manager in a game.

I almost decided to go to this game at Safeco Field tonight. Now I'm glad I didn't.