Saturday, July 10, 2010

Can't take the Heat? Get out of the kitchen

Go figure that LeBron James takes a bunch of Heat, then takes the Miami Heat's offer... but not before aligning with the mainstream media to turn his free agency process into a top-story news saga that did more to embarrass the sports media than it did to elevate/desecrate LeBron's image or report on any actual news.

Here's the thing with reporting on trades and free agency in pro sports: There is only one type of news that actually matters, and that's when a deal is actually made. All the rumors, all the hearsay, all the insider info... they come and go and rarely is any of it ultimately right or even valid: Often it brews from a throwaway comment in conversation blown very far out of proportion, speculation passed along as fact. No reporting in sports media is more consistently worthless that the reporting of trade or free agency rumors.

Couple that with LeBron's insistence on formally prolonging his decision and then aligning with ESPN to conduct a one hour special where he announced his decision (a decision he by all accounts made two weeks ago), and all you've got is equal parts three ring circus and pied piper, pulling the gullible masses along, of which includes the mainstream media itself, thirst for something to report on in the doldrums of baseball season with the World Cup winding down, the NBA and Stanley Cup Finals having long since concluded and NFL football season still more than a month away.

Thus I give very, very little credence to criticisms of LeBron James' character. He made no secret that he was unhappy with the Cleveland Cavaliers and that he would test the market. Given the obvious widespread interest in the superstar's services, LeBron was virtually assured of signing elsewhere. For LeBron to leave a perpetually underachieving Cleveland Cavs team is not an act of treason, but simply a desire to play for a better team. He owes the Cleveland Cavaliers nothing except his services over the life of his contract with the team, which expired after this season. Any moral arguments to the contrary are, like those trade and free agency rumors, all hot air in a media world that's already full of it.

Nobody told Michael Rosenberg.

Michael Jordan announced on national television he's leaving Chicago to join the Detroit Pistons. Jordan said it was tough to bolt Chicago, where he was the most popular athlete in many years, because he thinks he has a better chance to win a championship if he plays with Pistons star Isiah Thomas. Jordan said by playing together, he and Thomas "won't have the pressure of going out and scoring 30 every night."

That would have sounded absurd, right? Well, it is no more absurd than what LeBron James is doing. Jordan was 27 years old in 1990, slightly older than James is now. He had never been to the NBA Finals. He had been beaten up by the Celtics and Pistons for years. He doubted his supporting cast was good enough.

First of all, Michael Jordan was part of a carefully assembled, vastly improved team with strong role players (a young Scottie Pippen and BJ Armstrong, Horace Grant, John Paxson), and an innovative and effective coach in Phil Jackson. His team was loaded with young and improving talent, plus effective veterans (Grant, Bill Cartwright, Paxson, etc) with a lot of mileage left.

LeBron was on a hastily thrown together team of okay-ish players (Mo Williams, Delonte West) declining veterans (Shaq, Anthony Parker, Zydrunas Ilgauskas) and maybe one other young talent that might be an effective counterpart over the long haul (JJ Hickson). Their coach, the recently fired Mike Brown, was a terrible strategist and had barely the first idea of how to manage his personnel. With no head coach as of yet, no assurance the Cavs would hire a good coach, and no young supporting cast, not to mention a constantly transitioning roster with no identity let alone no style.

Save for improving to a winning record the last few seasons, the Cavs were nothing, NOTHING, like the Bulls team that Jordan elected to stay with. The situation MJ had in Chicago was vastly superior to the situation he would have found somewhere else. In Chicago, Jordan could be the leader of a young, stable, improving unit under a great strategic coach who also ran the team with a calm, balanced and yet suitably authoritative demeanor. No other team could have provided all of that, and a group he was familiar with to boot.

As for LeBron, he walked away from a rag-tag group that definitely would have to be rebuilt over the next season or three, and could well spend the rest of LeBron's youthful years rebuilding. They didn't even have a coach, nor much of an idea who they wanted to coach.

Contrast that with a fractured but reloaded Miami Heat team that just re-signed Dwyane Wade and just acquired star post man Chris Bosh. They have an incumbent and effective coach in Erik Spoelstra working under legendary Pat Riley. Yes, Miami has to reload that roster, but they also now have three very strong players in James, Wade and Bosh to build that team around. Compare this to the fractured and perpetually directionless situation in Cleveland, and it's no wonder James would choose Miami over that.

Oh wait, Rosenberg's not done yet.

the self-proclaimed King said everything you need to know about him.

1. "You have to do what's best for you, and what's going to make you happy."

This is what's going to make him happy? Sharing a stage with two other stars? Really?

Well... yes!

First of all, Michael Rosenberg, who are you to decide what should and shouldn't make a star player happy? If LeBron James decides tag teaming with two star players instead of being the star leader on another team is what makes him happy, then who are you to tell him that's wrong? It's none of your business to decide what LeBron James does and doesn't want.

I guess that's all LeBron is: A complementary player with superstar talent. We should have figured this out before: He got that giant CHOSEN 1 tattoo on his back and calls himself King James because he is desperate for reassurance.

Actually, the MEDIA and his cohorts dubbed him King James. He ran it because well why the hell not.

And Rosenberg plays sports psychologist again, telling us with certainty that James got those tattoos because he was desperate for constant reassurance. Maybe LeBron just thought they were cool nicknames synonymous with his reputation. People get tattoos for a variety of reasons, some of which make more rational sense than others.

So far, we've got an article heading forward with a full head of steam on the basis of three very hastily assembled and poorly thought out presuppositions concocted purely in the author's imaginative mind. I have a bad feeling about the rest of this piece.

2. "We don't have the pressure of going out and scoring 30 every night or shooting a high percentage."

Whoa. Hold on there. Scoring 30 a night is too much pressure for one of the five most talented players ever?

Well, when defenses are tighter than ever and every team you play is focused intently on stopping you... yes, Michael, yes it is. I don't care if you're Jesus Christ and have blessed yourself with a 68 inch vertical leap, and the refs are giving you every call ever.

LeBron would rather be on a team where other stars provide a sthreat and, if he ahs a down night, others will be able to pick up the slack... than be a 30 point guy on a team where if he doesn't throw down 30 his team's probably losing because everyone else sucks. LeBron isn't perfect and can't play 82 spectacular games a year, plus 15-25 spectacular games in the playoffs, if his body can hold up to that kind of pressure. Strange, I know. There are very few players that could play consistently great all the way down the stretch in those conditions, and the list consists of Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson and... uh....

Find me another all-time NBA great who would utter those words. Jordan would rather do an adidas commercial than say that. Bryant must have laughed as he heard the so-called "King" say that. Larry Bird? The next time he complains about pressure will be the first. Magic was the greatest team player of the last 40 years, but he was also so competitive that he wanted to play Jordan one-on-one in a promotional event -- and this was when Magic had won titles and Jordan had not, so Magic had more to lose.

Now would be a good time to note that Jordan had Scottie Pippen and, later, Dennis Rodman. Bryant had Shaq during his first title run and Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Ron Artest during his 2nd. Bird had Kevin McHale and Robert Parrish. And Magic had James Worthy and some dude named Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on his team, who BTW I hear is only the NBA's all time leading scorer. Yeah, none of those had or needed any help whatsoever. None.

3. "I know how loyal I am."

The man just dumped his hometown(s) on national television.

LeBron, like the rest of us, is loyal to an employer as long as he is technically employed by them. And like the rest of us, he is as loyal to his hometown as long as living there serves him well. He owes Cleveland nothing. Do we serious think Michael Rosenberg would stay loyal to SI if they treated him badly and another media outlet offered him three times the money to write for them?

This is pretty sad to read, because Rosenberg generally is a fairly decent sports writer. But this just reeks of Rosenberg being pressured by his employer and peers to craft up false moral indignance over a decision that honestly makes sense for all parties.

LeBron James just jumped into an elevator and wants us to think he can fly. Sorry, but we know better. We know that he did something Michael, Magic, Bird and Bill Russell never would have done. We know he ditched Cleveland for an All-Star team.

Right, because if Michael Jordan were the leading scorer for a rag-tag Cleveland Cavs team instead of the young, improving Bulls team he was a part of upon free agency, he totally would have stayed. If Bill Russell were the only good player on the Clippers, he totally would have stayed. Magic would have eschewed good money to be the man on a team of nobodies with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Oh wait, all of those players were great players on great teams with great teammates and great coaches, and LeBron walked away from a fractured team with the revolving-door roster and no coach.

I've already given this terrible piece more attention than it probably warrants, so I'll just say that while LeBron's media whoring was amusingly annoying, it made sense and his ultimate decision made sense.

Media hot air, however, will never make sense. Aside from drawing attention to said outlets, it rarely if ever provides any real sociocultural value.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Why would teams try to win in a lost season?

Check this out.

The Mariners are over 10 games out of 1st place in the AL West, and well below .500. Why would they trade two fringey prospects (Ezequiel Carrera, Juan Diaz) to get back Russell Branyan in a lost season? There are two simple reasons, one being much bigger to the Mariners than the other.

Even if the team and many fans (such as many reading here, myself included) have given up on the season, many local/regional fans still might have an interest in attending Mariner games, so long as the team can make a significant effort to win, i.e. not make the cost and time invested to see a game a complete waste of their time. A team that scores 3 runs a game and is clearly/obviously punting the season isn’t going to draw most casual fans.

But believe it or not, the ticket sales side of the equation is the small part. Ticket sales, while valuable, make up a minority of the team's revenue. The biggest reason why Jack would want to buff up 2010’s team in a lost season is that the team's in-season performance from here on out does matter to the team’s relationship with FSNW and ESPN Radio, given the networks are paying the Mariners a lucrative sum for their media contracts.

A better team that competes despite the record equals more game-to-game interest which means more ratings. More interest in the team in 2010 means more viewers in 2010 which means higher average ratings during 2010 as well as over the life of the current contract, which means more ad dollars down the line.

If ratings for Mariners broadcasts tank, a) FSNW loses money in the long run as advertisers can cite lowered average ratings as justifiable leverage to lower the price on ad spots with the network and b) the Mariners may lose out on money from a new radio or TV contract down the line, as the network side will cite low ratings from this period as justification for low-balling the M’s when it comes time to negotiate a renewal. Sure, the Mariners have a 10 year, $300 million deal with FSN through 2020, but let's say the team wanted to buy out and jump to a more lucrative deal, or let's say FSN wanted to nix the deal. Don't forget the radio deal with KIRO ($5.5 million per year) only lasts through 2011. There is still plenty of leverage, as well as money, that can be gained and lost by what team they elect to field for the rest of 2010.

Even if the team's playoff chances in a vacuum make upgrading the 2010 roster seem like a waste of time, doing so could have an impact that reaches way beyond the field, and way beyond 2010.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Net Runs shelved indefinitely

For various personal reasons, I have decided to shelve Net Runs until further notice. My eventual goal with the system is to program a method where I can calculate it quickly and automatically. I gather Net Runs will return once that is possible. But for now....

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-19-2010 (Seattle 5, Cincinnati 1)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
CINSam LeCure -1.1400.000-1.3920.2520.0006.1518
CINRamon Hernandez -0.683-0.5760.000-0.1070.0000.000
CINJoey Votto 2.1440.6970.0001.3400.1070.000
CINBrandon Phillips -0.947-0.8830.000-0.0640.0000.000
CINScott Rolen -1.768-1.1830.000-0.368-0.2170.000
CINOrlando Cabrera -0.297-0.9090.0000.6120.0000.000
CINLaynce Nix -0.160-0.5740.0000.4140.0000.000
CINDrew Stubbs 0.8230.0690.0000.6470.1070.000
CINJay Bruce 0.370-0.4840.0000.8540.0000.000
CINJonny Gomes 0.1620.1620.0000.0000.0000.000
CINJordan Smith 0.2650.0000.2650.0000.0003.116
CINCIN Luckbox0.1390.1390.0000.0000.0000.000
CINDusty Baker-0.3580.0000.000-0.3580.0000.000

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAFelix Hernandez 1.3400.0001.3350.0050.0002.9827
SEARob Johnson -1.149-1.0100.000-0.1390.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman -0.367-0.4430.0000.0760.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins 1.1770.7770.0000.2930.1070.000
SEAJose Lopez -0.468-0.4600.0000.209-0.2170.000
SEAJosh Wilson -0.737-0.2430.000-0.4940.0000.000
SEAMichael Saunders 2.4802.2100.0000.2700.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 1.9680.1970.0001.5860.1850.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 1.1870.7830.0000.4040.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley -1.284-1.2840.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.3580.3580.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Safeco Field3.0550.0000.000-3.0550.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.505

Player of the Game: Michael Saunders (2.480 NRuns: 2.210 hitting, 0.270 fielding)
Mariners over 1.000 NRuns: 5 (Hernandez, Figgins, Saunders, Gutierrez, Ichiro)

Goat: Scott Rolen (-1.768 NRuns: -1.183 hitting, -0.368 fielding, -0.217 running)

Felix Hernandez's pitching: 1.335 NRuns... 2.98 EXERA
Mariners defense: 2.210 NRuns

Friday, June 18, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-18-2010 (Seattle 1, Cincinnati 0)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
CINJohnny Cueto 1.2400.0001.0950.1450.0002.6017
CINCorky Miller -0.345-0.5760.0000.2310.0000.000
CINJoey Votto 0.0480.0430.0000.0050.0000.000
CINBrandon Phillips -0.284-0.5050.0000.2210.0000.000
CINScott Rolen 0.190-0.3550.0000.5450.0000.000
CINOrlando Cabrera -1.285-0.3860.000-0.8990.0000.000
CINJonny Gomes -1.728-1.3100.000-0.4180.0000.000
CINChris Heisey 0.136-0.5050.0000.6410.0000.000
CINJay Bruce -0.484-0.4840.0000.0000.0000.000
CINMiguel Cairo -0.574-0.5740.0000.0000.0000.000
CINDanny Herrera 0.8670.0000.8670.0000.000-1.214
CINDrew Stubbs 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
CINArthur Rhodes 0.6070.0000.6070.0000.000-0.853
CINCIN Luckbox0.1070.1070.0000.0000.0000.000
CINDusty Baker0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEACliff Lee -0.1960.000-0.1960.0000.0004.3927
SEARob Johnson -0.255-0.1480.000-0.1070.0000.000
SEAMike Carp -0.842-0.8420.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins -0.814-0.8140.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAJose Lopez 1.1880.6830.0000.5050.0000.000
SEAJosh Wilson 1.3891.5560.000-0.2740.1070.000
SEAMichael Saunders -0.077-1.1200.0001.0430.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 1.034-0.6680.0001.7020.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 0.978-0.6720.0001.6500.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley -0.534-0.5340.0000.0000.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman 0.2220.0000.0000.2220.0000.000
SEAMike Sweeney -0.588-0.5880.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Safeco Field0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.505

Player of the Game: Josh Wilson (1.389 NRuns: 1.556 hitting, -0.274 fielding)

Cliff Lee: -0.196 NRuns, 4.39 EXERA
Mariners outfield defense: 4.395 NRuns

Reds pitching: 2.569 NRuns
Reds defense: 0.471 NRuns
Reds lineup: -4.652 NRuns

Goat: Jonny Gomes (-1.728 NRuns: -1.310 hitting, -0.418 fielding)

Seattle Mariners minor league EMERA for June 2010

Sorry for the delay in Net Runs posts: The preceding games will get caught up later tonight, along with posts for a couple of other special items.

Following up on the Seattle Mariners minor league system's pitching, here is the Mariners minor league EMERA for all eligible pitchers* based on season pitching totals current as of yesterday. Pitchers are broken down by tiers: Ignoring all other developmental concerns, you could hypothetically slot the 1st tier in AAA, the 2nd tier in AA, the 3rd tier in High A and the 4th tier in Low A. On a more relevant scale, you want AAA pitchers in the 1st tier, not the 2nd tier or below... and you expect single A pitchers in the 3rd or 4th tier, so they're doing well if slotted higher.

And of course, EMERA is designed to estimate a pitcher's potential MLB ERA, so if his EMERA looks like a decent MLB ERA, that pitcher theoretically could pitch in the bigs right now.

(Ryan Feierabend is currently pitching in AAA and has enough innings to qualify, but I included his High A totals in parentheses as a point of comparative reference, as he has enough innings at that level to qualify as well.)

* - Minimum of 10 IP

Player - 1st TierLvlEMERA
Brian SweeneyAAA3.74
Robert RohrbaughAA4.43
Garrett OlsonAAA4.80
Edward ParedesAA4.96
Anthony VasquezA+5.14
Anthony VarvaroAA5.23
Michael PinedaAA5.42
Stephen PenneyA+5.45
Mauricio RoblesAA5.50
Anthony VasquezA5.51
Steve BrayAA5.59
Ryan FeierabendAAA5.61

Player - 2nd TierLvlEMERA
Steve PalazzoloAAA5.66
Steven HensleyAA5.78
Aaron JensenAA5.94
Maikel CletoA+5.95
Josh FieldsAA5.98
(Ryan Feierabend)A+6.06
Chad CorderoAAA6.10
Chris KirklandA6.39
Brian MoranA6.71
Dan CortesAA6.71
Luis MuñozAA6.75
Andrew CarrawayA+6.85
Taylor StantonA6.90

Player - 3rd TierLvlEMERA
Mumba RiveraAA6.91
David PauleyAAA6.99
Steven RichardA+7.16
Chris SeddonAAA7.19
Levale SpeignerAAA7.21
Luke FrenchAAA7.24
Andy BaldwinAAA7.31
Jake WildA+7.34
Steven ShellAAA7.38
Erasmo RamirezA7.57
Cheyne HannA+7.67
Jon HeskethA7.73

Player - 4th TierLvlEMERA
Mike KoploveAAA7.76
Jose JimenezA8.08
Bobby LaFromboiseA+8.28
Blake NationA+8.31
John HouseyA8.41
Yusmeiro PetitAAA8.55
Kenn KasparekA+8.65
Nick CzyzA+9.66
Brandon JosselynA9.85
Marwin VegaA+9.96
James GillheeneyA10.49
Daniel CooperA11.74
Taylor LewisA12.25
Tyler BlandfordA14.51
Ryan MoorerA+14.92

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-16-2010 (Seattle 2, St Louis 1)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAJason Vargas -0.282-0.4970.2150.0000.0003.8323
SEAEliezer Alfonzo -1.631-1.1740.000-0.248-0.2090.000
SEARyan Langerhans -0.476-0.2550.000-0.2210.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins 0.6260.5160.0000.0000.1100.000
SEAJose Lopez 0.2480.1080.0000.1400.0000.000
SEAJosh Wilson -0.465-0.4860.0000.0210.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley -0.1820.0080.000-0.1900.0000.000
SEAMichael Saunders 2.323-0.0750.0002.3980.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 0.6090.7160.0000.698-0.8050.000
SEABrandon League 0.3510.0000.3510.0000.000-4.721
SEARob Johnson 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAMatt Tuiasosopo -0.319-0.5090.0000.1900.0000.000
SEADavid Aardsma -0.1260.000-0.1260.0000.0005.113
SEASEA Luckbox0.3240.1690.0000.1550.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
STLJaime Garcia -0.911-0.394-0.5170.0000.0004.6821
STLYadier Molina -0.948-0.6490.000-0.2990.0000.000
STLAlbert Pujols 0.127-0.0150.0000.1420.0000.000
STLFelipe Lopez -1.319-1.1100.000-0.2090.0000.000
STLDavid Freese 0.7490.2970.0000.4520.0000.000
STLBrendan Ryan -0.800-0.2560.000-0.5440.0000.000
STLMatt Holliday 0.780-0.9080.0001.6880.0000.000
STLColby Rasmus -1.217-1.1420.000-0.0750.0000.000
STLRyan Ludwick 0.7060.1270.0000.5790.0000.000
STLRandy Winn 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
STLTrever Miller 0.0090.0000.0090.0000.0003.993
STLJason Motte 1.1980.0001.1980.0000.000-5.933
STLDennys Reyes -0.0410.000-0.0410.0000.0000
STLNick Stavinoha 0.5740.4120.0000.0000.1620.000
STLSTL Luckbox0.2480.2480.0000.0000.0000.000
STLTony LaRussa-0.155-0.1550.0000.0000.0000.000
 Busch Stadium0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.487

Player of the Game: Michael Saunders (2.323 NRuns: -0.075 hitting, 2.398 fielding)

Goat? Eliezer Aflonzo (-1.631 NRuns: -1.174 hitting, -0.248 fielding, -0.209 running)

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-15-2010 (St Louis 4, Seattle 2)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEARyan Rowland-Smith -2.909-0.548-2.3610.0000.0008.9912
SEARob Johnson 0.1710.1240.0000.0470.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman -1.069-0.7180.000-0.3510.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins -1.338-1.1010.000-0.2370.0000.000
SEAJose Lopez 1.5930.2320.0001.3610.0000.000
SEAJosh Wilson -1.676-1.9360.0000.2600.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley 2.2471.3650.0000.8820.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 0.724-0.5490.0001.2730.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 2.110-0.5100.0002.4780.1420.000
SEAGarrett Olson -1.0640.000-1.0640.0000.0008.506
SEABrandon League 0.2060.0000.2060.0000.0002.343
SEAShawn Kelley 0.1240.0000.331-0.2070.0001.303
SEARyan Langerhans 1.0001.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAMike Carp 0.1160.1160.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.1550.0000.0000.1550.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
STLJeff Suppan 0.1390.0170.1220.0000.0003.8112
STLYadier Molina -1.074-0.9320.000-0.1420.0000.000
STLAlbert Pujols 0.1390.4940.0000.280-0.6350.000
STLSkip Schumaker -0.7100.2030.000-0.9130.0000.000
STLDavid Freese 0.2300.0900.0000.1400.0000.000
STLBrendan Ryan 2.9191.1110.0001.6460.1620.000
STLMatt Holliday 0.406-0.6370.0001.0430.0000.000
STLColby Rasmus 1.5701.2980.0000.2720.0000.000
STLRyan Ludwick -0.493-1.0960.0000.6030.0000.000
STLKyle McClellan 0.5540.0000.3230.2310.0002.726
STLRandy Winn -0.163-0.1630.0000.0000.0000.000
STLRyan Franklin -0.3740.000-0.3740.0000.0007.183
STLBlake Hawksworth 0.6310.0000.6310.0000.0000.905
STLTrever Miller -0.0410.000-0.0410.0000.0005.091
STLFelipe Lopez 0.0610.0550.0000.0060.0000.000
STLNick Stavinoha 0.2600.2600.0000.0000.0000.000
STLSTL Luckbox0.0320.0320.0000.0000.0000.000
STLTony LaRussa-0.155-0.1550.0000.0000.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.487

Player of the Game: Brendan Ryan (2.919 NRuns: 1.111 hitting, 1.646 fielding, 0.162 running)

Goat: Ryan Rowland-Smith (-2.909 NRuns: -0.548 hitting, -2.361 pitching, 8.99 EXERA)

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-14-2010 (St Louis 9, Seattle 3)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEALuke French -3.667-0.093-3.5740.0000.00011.5212
SEARob Johnson -0.696-0.6960.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAMike Carp -0.253-0.3710.0000.1180.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins 1.8781.0870.0000.5430.2480.000
SEAJose Lopez -3.420-0.9400.000-1.845-0.6350.000
SEAJosh Wilson 0.189-0.8760.0001.0650.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley -0.020-0.6650.0000.5350.1100.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 0.321-1.4860.0001.8070.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 3.4401.6800.0001.7600.0000.000
SEAIan Snell -0.7640.000-0.7640.0000.0007.256
SEAChad Cordero -0.8360.000-0.8360.0000.00011.043
SEASean White -1.4040.000-1.4040.0000.00015.783
SEAMichael Saunders 0.9620.4120.0000.5500.0000.000
SEARyan Langerhans -0.163-0.1630.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox1.0051.0050.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
STLAdam Wainwright -0.7800.192-0.7630.000-0.2094.9721
STLYadier Molina -1.076-1.0760.0000.0000.0000.000
STLAlbert Pujols 1.9102.9510.000-0.207-0.8340.000
STLFelipe Lopez -1.990-1.3510.000-0.6390.0000.000
STLDavid Freese -0.078-0.6980.0000.6200.0000.000
STLBrendan Ryan -0.077-0.1180.0000.0410.0000.000
STLMatt Holliday 0.9630.4340.0000.5290.0000.000
STLColby Rasmus 3.6381.5360.0002.1020.0000.000
STLRyan Ludwick 3.2662.6770.0000.5890.0000.000
STLAaron Miles 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
STLJason Motte 0.4010.0000.4010.0000.0000.723
STLMitchell Boggs -0.3310.000-0.3310.0000.0006.823
STLSTL Luckbox1.6001.6000.0000.0000.0000.000
STLTony LaRussa0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Busch Stadium4.0180.0000.000-4.0180.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.487

Co-Players of the Game:

Colby Rasmus (3.638 NRuns: 1.536 hitting, 2.102 fielding)
Ryan Ludwick (3.266 NRuns: 2.677 hitting, 0.589 fielding)

Cardinals luckbox: 1.600 NRuns

Mariners luckbox: 1.005 NRuns

Mariners Player of the Game: Ichiro (3.440 NRuns: 1.680 hitting, 1.760 fielding)


Luke French (-3.667 NRuns: -0.093 hitting, -3.574 pitching, 11.52 EXERA)
Jose Lopez (-3.420 NRuns: -0.940 hitting, -1.845 fielding, -0.635 running)
Mariners bullpen (-3.004 NRuns, 11.14 EXERA)


I will only add that never have I seen three such good performances in a game with two such bad performances. This even ignores Sean White's awful 8th inning (-1.404 NRuns, 15.78 EXERA), not to mention the garbage effort by the rest of the bullpen (though Ian Snell's striking out of the side was a fine way to go out: He was DFA'd today).

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-13-2010 (Seattle 4, San Diego 2)

Quick and dirty... but nice job by Felix today:

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAFelix Hernandez 1.642-0.1251.5560.2110.0001.6726
SEARob Johnson 0.5250.6220.0000.000-0.0970.000
SEAMike Carp -1.421-1.4090.000-0.0120.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins -0.356-0.0370.0000.028-0.3470.000
SEAJose Lopez -0.2380.4300.0000.085-0.7530.000
SEAJosh Wilson -0.029-0.3120.0000.2830.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley 2.0512.0410.0000.0100.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez -0.6950.1100.000-0.8050.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 0.8520.8520.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADavid Aardsma -0.1300.000-0.1300.0000.0006.421
SEACasey Kotchman 0.1940.0000.0000.1940.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.1020.1020.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu-0.497-0.4970.0000.0000.0000.000

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SDPClayton Richard 0.006-0.2550.2610.0000.0002.8621
SDPNick Hundley -0.730-0.7300.0000.0000.0000.000
SDPAdrian Gonzalez 0.0880.4360.000-0.3480.0000.000
SDPDavid Eckstein 0.736-0.5620.0001.2980.0000.000
SDPChase Headley -0.314-0.5050.0000.1910.0000.000
SDPJerry Hairston 0.1100.0440.0000.0660.0000.000
SDPScott Hairston -1.319-0.2620.000-1.1540.0970.000
SDPTony Gwynn 2.0101.1710.0000.8390.0000.000
SDPWill Venable -0.891-0.8910.0000.0000.0000.000
SDPRyan Webb 0.3810.0000.3810.0000.000-1.602
SDPJoe Thatcher -0.7480.000-0.7480.0000.00021.891
SDPLuke Gregerson 0.1100.0000.1100.0000.0002.253
SDPOscar Salazar -0.125-0.1250.0000.0000.0000.000
SDPSDP Luckbox0.6590.1620.0000.4970.0000.000
SDPBud Black-0.1020.0000.000-0.1020.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.380

Player of the Game: Milton Bradley (2.051 NRuns: 2.041 hitting, 0.010 fielding)

Mariners defense: -0.006 NRuns
Felix Hernandez: 1.556 pitching NRuns, 1.67 EXERA

Goat? Mike Carp (-1.421 NRuns: -1.409 hitting, -0.012 fielding)

Net Runs Special, 6-8-2010: Stephen Strasburg's Major League Debut (Washington 5, Pittsburgh 2)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
PITJeff Karstens -0.671-0.274-0.3970.0000.0004.9515
PITJason Jaramillo -0.804-0.8030.000-0.0010.0000.000
PITGarrett Jones -1.788-0.9390.000-0.009-0.8400.000
PITNeil Walker 0.807-0.1640.0000.9710.0000.000
PITAndy LaRoche -0.030-0.0820.0000.0520.0000.000
PITRonny Cedeno 1.180-0.0440.0001.1180.1060.000
PITLastings Milledge 2.3350.2480.0002.0870.0000.000
PITAndrew McCutchen -0.694-0.9120.0000.2180.0000.000
PITDelwyn Young 0.5431.3970.000-0.8540.0000.000
PITJavier Lopez -1.2370.000-1.2370.0000.00014.613
PITEvan Meek 0.6060.0000.6060.0000.0001.766
PITRyan Church -0.319-0.3190.0000.0000.0000.000
PITPIT Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
PITJohn Russell0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
WASStephen Strasburg 0.017-0.4120.4290.0000.0003.7821
WASIvan Rodriguez -0.3550.4540.000-0.106-0.7030.000
WASAdam Dunn 2.6602.5220.0000.1380.0000.000
WASCristian Guzman 0.484-0.4620.0000.8400.1060.000
WASRyan Zimmerman 1.6151.6160.000-0.0010.0000.000
WASIan Desmond 0.381-0.7030.0001.0840.0000.000
WASJosh Willingham 1.1321.2450.0000.376-0.4890.000
WASNyjer Morgan -0.482-0.4820.0000.0000.0000.000
WASRoger Bernadina -1.066-1.5640.0000.4980.0000.000
WASTyler Clippard 0.1430.0000.1430.0000.0003.103
WASMatt Capps 0.4460.0000.4460.0000.0000.573
WASAdam Kennedy -0.0010.0000.000-0.0010.0000.000
WASWillie Harris -0.240-0.2400.0000.0000.0000.000
WASWAS Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
WASJim Riggleman0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Nationals Park4.6620.0000.000-4.6620.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.514

How Net Runs works.

More on Strasburg's debut in this piece.

Player of the Game: ... Adam Dunn?! (2.660 NRuns: 2.522 hitting, 0.138 fielding)

What about our hero, Stephen Strasburg? (0.017 NRuns: -0.412 hitting, 0.429 pitching... 3.78 EXERA)

Nationals defense: 2.828 NRuns
Nationals hitting: 1.974 NRuns

Goat: Garrett Jones (-1.788 NRuns: -0.939 hitting, -0.009 fielding, -0.840 running)


I don't process Net Runs with any personal bias. At most, I make judgment calls on which fielder was responsible for some plays, and whether a wild pitch was truly a wild pitch or a pitch the catcher should have blocked and didn't. But otherwise, I just put in the play by play data, my spreadsheet auto-scores it accordingly and what you get is the end result.

For any misgivings I have offered about the possibilities of Stephen Strasburg's greatness, I fully expected him to be the Player of the Game for this contest and for his pitching stats to bear out a dominant performance against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.

Instead, Net Runs indicates that he had simply a good game, an effort where you should expect him to allow 3 runs over 7 innings. He allowed two runs on a home run by Delwyn Young in the 4th, but I figured that would be a blip on a radar of strikeouts and groundballs that would roll up positive Net Runs like a Katamari ball.

Instead, it turns out that inning also featured three of the five line drives Strasburg allowed, each of which cost him 0.521 NRuns. Strasburg's 14 strikeouts averaged 0.180 NRuns per K, a total of 2.520 NRuns in pitching production. And the line drives cost him about 2.605 NRuns, offseting all of that and more. You can say that Strasburg had a bad lineup so far off balance that it shouldn't matter, and contextually speaking you're probably right. But on five occasions, Pirates hitters were able to square a Strasburg pitch up and drive it, and appropriately four of those line drives produced base hits, one of which was Delwyn Young's two run homer.

Strasburg still finished in the black thanks to four groundballs at 0.102 NRuns a pop, and a pop up (which it turns out ended the two run inning) for 0.102 NRuns. But a combination of the Pirates' own futility and a bit of fortune during the two run inning (a double play turned against Garrett Jones actually saved a run: Young's homer came in the next plate appearance) did just as much to cement Strasburg's dominance as Strasburg did himself.