Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-13-2010 (Baltimore 6, Seattle 5)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	2.250	0.000	1.867	0.383	0.000	2.92	21
SEA	Rob Johnson	-1.889	-1.007	0.000	-0.882	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-1.040	-1.091	0.000	0.051	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-1.125	-0.597	0.000	-0.528	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.439	-0.558	0.000	0.624	-0.505	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.890	-0.725	0.000	0.705	-0.870	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	1.668	1.148	0.000	0.520	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	1.411	0.074	0.000	1.105	0.232	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	1.592	2.519	0.000	-0.927	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	0.657	0.657	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	0.471	0.471	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Adam Moore	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Brandon League	-0.641	0.000	-0.641	0.000	0.000	10.50	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.301	-0.301	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
BAL	Kevin Millwood	-1.881	0.000	-1.881	0.000	0.000	7.50	20
BAL	Craig Tatum	0.015	-0.490	0.000	0.505	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Rhyne Hughes	-0.248	-0.283	0.000	0.035	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Ty Wigginton	2.136	1.388	0.000	0.748	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Miguel Tejada	-1.479	-1.476	0.000	-0.003	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Cesar Izturis	1.897	0.172	0.000	1.725	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Corey Patterson	2.213	0.805	0.000	1.517	-0.109	0.00	0
BAL	Adam Jones	-0.344	-0.998	0.000	0.654	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Nick Markakis	0.315	0.231	0.000	0.084	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Luke Scott	2.172	2.172	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Matt Wieters	-0.706	-0.706	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Garrett Atkins	-0.524	-0.524	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Julio Lugo	-0.403	0.000	0.000	-0.403	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Mark Hendrickson	0.345	0.000	0.345	0.000	0.000	2.99	4
BAL	Alfredo Simon	-0.007	0.000	-0.007	0.000	0.000	5.21	3
BAL	BAL Luckbox	1.183	0.882	0.000	0.301	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Dave Trembley	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Camden Yards	6.408	0.000	0.000	-6.408	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Felix Hernandez (2.250 NRuns: 1.867 pitching, 0.383 fielding). 2.92 EXERA

Seattle Outfield (Saunders, Langerhans, Ichiro): 4.671 NRuns

Orioles Player of the Game: Corey Patterson (2.213 NRuns: 0.805 hitting, 1.517 fielding, -0.109 running)
Orioles with more than 2.000 NRuns: 3 (Patterson, Ty Wigginton, Luke Scott)
Orioles Luckbox: 1.183 NRuns

Goat: Rob Johnson (-1.889 NRuns: -1.007 hitting, -0.882 fielding)

******

Felix Hernandez had one of his best starts of the season, the offense picked him up with five runs off a bad performance from Kevin Millwood, and it all went to waste with help from Rob Johnson and Brandon League.

League, usually solid, got some bad luck early in his outing and he made it worse with two cardinal sins in the fatal 8th inning: A line drive that led to a base hit, and a walk that loaded the bases. Short of walking in a run, the worst situation to walk a guy is with two men on, as said walk loads the bases. And sure enough, the walk set up Luke Scott's backbreaking grand slam. That's why you can't allow line drives and bases loading walks, Brandon.

And Rob Johnson... Rob Johnson produced a change in the Net Runs scoring rules regarding wild pitches. Previously, wild pitches were credited to the pitcher as, while some wild pitches hit the dirt and could be stopped, there are also wild pitches that just sail past the catcher. Blaming the catcher for pitches that far off the plate seemed a bit unfair. But after two blockable balls in the dirt got past Johnson, I decided I just couldn't blame Felix for his catcher's failures. So now I have decided to credit the catcher, not the pitcher, for wild pitches from this point forward save for the occasional judgment call on a pitch well off the plate. Congratulations, Rob Johnson. You're a trendsetter. Now please ask your manager to send you to Tacoma.

Camden Yards' dimensions produced over six runs today. The Mariners, meanwhile, may have driven a stake through their season's heart by finding a way to lose this winnable game, and in turn finding a way to lose an easily winnable series against arguably the worst team in the American League this side of the Kansas City Royals or... dare I say it... the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-12-2010 (Baltimore 5, Seattle 2)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-0.315	0.000	-0.315	0.000	0.000	6.02	9
SEA	Adam Moore	-0.568	-0.568	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.568	0.413	0.000	0.155	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.104	0.020	0.000	-0.124	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-0.649	-0.033	0.000	-0.616	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-2.959	-3.124	0.000	0.718	-0.553	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-0.318	-0.995	0.000	0.677	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	1.225	1.119	0.000	-0.007	0.113	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.461	-0.024	0.000	-0.550	0.113	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.310	-0.310	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.045	-0.045	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ian Snell	-0.433	0.000	-0.547	0.114	0.000	6.67	9
SEA	Sean White	0.881	0.000	0.718	0.163	0.000	-0.84	3
SEA	Jesus Colome	0.376	0.000	0.376	0.000	0.000	0.44	2
SEA	Kanekoa Texeira	0.092	0.000	0.092	0.000	0.000	2.84	1
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.883	0.883	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.278	-0.278	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
BAL	Brad Bergesen	1.050	0.000	0.573	0.477	0.000	4.52	23
BAL	Matt Wieters	-0.952	-1.045	0.000	0.093	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Garrett Atkins	0.810	0.547	0.000	0.263	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Ty Wigginton	-0.724	-0.645	0.000	-0.079	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Miguel Tejada	2.706	1.495	0.000	1.764	-0.553	0.00	0
BAL	Cesar Izturis	-0.597	-1.247	0.000	0.650	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Corey Patterson	-0.120	-0.477	0.000	0.357	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Adam Jones	2.296	1.508	0.000	0.788	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Nick Markakis	-1.065	-1.194	0.000	0.129	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Luke Scott	0.867	0.867	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Julio Lugo	-1.175	0.000	0.000	-1.175	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Will Ohman	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Koji Uehara	-0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000	0.000	16.34	1
BAL	Alfredo Simon	0.342	0.000	0.342	0.000	0.000	2.29	3
BAL	BAL Luckbox	0.802	0.524	0.000	0.278	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Dave Trembley	-0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Camden Yards	0.918	0.000	0.000	-0.918	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Miguel Tejada (2.706 NRuns: 1.495 hitting, 1.764 fielding, -0.553 running)
Pretty close: Adam Jones (2.296 NRuns: 1.508 hitting, 0.788 fielding)

Top Mariner: Ryan Langerhans (1.225 NRuns: 1.119 hitting, -0.007 fielding, 0.113 running)

Goat: Josh Wilson (-2.959 NRuns: -3.124 hitting, 0.718 fielding, -0.553 running)

Mariners hitting: -3.547 NRuns

******

Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell weren't horrible today. Granted, they weren't by any means good, but at worst RRS was a bit below average before Wak decided the home run to Luke Scott was enough and abruptly pulled him. Snell once again did not pitch well in relief, and if I have to pick a winner in this tandem of mediocrity I'd give the duke to RRS. The bullpen after Snell, however, did a fine job (1.186 pitching NRuns), though granted in a 5-1 hole they were basically mopping up.

Wak's sudden pull of RRS is eerily similar to a moment during 2007 when Mike Hargrove yanked Jeff Weaver after three innings despite not being especially bad and having a low pitch count. When queried about the decision after the game, Hargrove said with some exasperation, "I just didn't see him getting any better." While RRS had thrown under 60 pitches and to that point hadn't looked especially awful, Wak seemed similarly like he had seen enough after Luke Scott took him deep to lead off the 4th, immediately yanking him.

In 2007, Weaver ran out of rope quickly after that game. Following an embarrassing six run, one out meltdown against the Royals at home, he was DL'd, sent off to work on his pitching, and stayed on the DL until he regained some semblance of form, returning a better pitcher. RRS could head to the same fate if his stuff and his performance don't quickly improve. Let's hope, if he does have to disappear for a while, that he doesn't have to give up six runs in the 1st inning to a bad team at home first.

Typically a strong suit, the Mariners defense was merely around average, which doesn't seem bad except average defense and average pitching should allow about 5.5 runs per game in Camden Yards. Add in mediocre front end pitching by RRS and Snell, plus some weak hitting punctuated by an abysmal day at the plate by Josh Wilson, and the Mariners just had no chance with an average performance.

Granted, they ran the B team out there today (Moore, Tui, Langerhans, Josh Wilson, Saunders) and while they were hot for a bit they decidedly cooled off today against a motivated Brad Bergesen, who wasn't spectacular but solid. But without a particularly strong team performance in any of the three major facets of the game (hitting, pitching, defense), and when players on the other team step up like Miguel Tejada and Adam Jones did, the M's just aren't going to have a chance no matter who the opponent is.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-11-2010 (Seattle 5, Baltimore 1)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	-0.361	0.000	-0.396	0.035	0.000	5.60	22
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.889	0.889	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.453	0.304	0.000	0.149	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.252	0.757	0.000	0.495	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-1.600	-2.004	0.000	0.957	-0.553	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	2.196	0.766	0.000	1.430	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.758	0.068	0.000	0.954	-0.264	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.351	-1.449	0.000	1.098	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.287	0.250	0.000	-0.537	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.834	-0.834	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Brandon League	0.368	0.000	0.368	0.000	0.000	3.31	5
SEA	SEA Luckbox	1.517	1.517	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
BAL	David Hernandez	-1.180	0.000	-1.657	0.477	0.000	7.59	17
BAL	Matt Wieters	-0.198	-0.462	0.000	0.264	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Garrett Atkins	0.520	0.274	0.000	0.246	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Julio Lugo	-0.829	-0.979	0.000	0.150	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Miguel Tejada	-0.752	-0.300	0.000	0.101	-0.553	0.00	0
BAL	Cesar Izturis	-1.117	-1.127	0.000	0.274	-0.264	0.00	0
BAL	Nolan Reimold	-0.369	-0.690	0.000	0.321	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Adam Jones	2.053	-0.397	0.000	2.450	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Nick Markakis	0.918	0.516	0.000	0.402	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Ty Wigginton	-0.835	-0.835	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Jason Berken	-0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000	0.000	5.94	6
BAL	Cla Meredith	-1.162	0.000	-1.162	0.000	0.000	14.84	3
BAL	BAL Luckbox	0.264	0.264	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
BAL	Dave Trembley	-0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Camden Yards	0.918	0.000	0.000	-0.918	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Josh Wilson (2.196 NRuns: 0.766 hitting, 1.430 fielding)
Seattle Luckbox: 1.517 NRuns
Seattle fielding: 4.581 NRuns
The Three MuskRainiers (Langerhans, Wilson, Saunders): 3.407 NRuns

Adam Jones (2.053 NRuns: -0.397 hitting, 2.450 fielding)
Nick Markakis: 0.918 NRuns
Rest of Orioles lineup: -3.580 NRuns
Number of Orioles with negative defensive NRuns: 0
Baltimore pitching: -3.009 NRuns

******

The average pitching staff should give up about 5.5 runs per game in Camden Yards with an average defense, so add in some craptastic pitching by the Orioles today, and there's no way even the Mariners could screw this up. Even given some overacheiving defense by a mediocre Orioles defense, the Orioles had no chance with a Mariners-like performance at the plate: Only Garrett Atkins and Nick Markakis posted positive hitting contributions.

After a subpar outing his last time out, Brandon League ran a 3.31 EXERA in snuffing out an 8th inning O's rally and pitching a scoreless 9th. It may not be a matter of if, but when he supplants David Aardsma as the Mariners closer, and "when" will probably come at some point this season regardless of how the team is doing. If Aardsma doesn't implode, look for the M's to sell high on their incumbent closer. They've got a superior replacement waiting in the wings.

There wasn't a bad enough performance to justify tabbing anyone a goat, but Jose Lopez laid an egg at the plate in his -1.600 NRun performance, with a 0.957 performance in the field offsetting a -2.004 NRun failboat at the plate plus (or in this case minus) -0.553 NRuns for running out the back end of a GIDP.

Josh Wilson's hot bat has created a question of what to do with him when Jack Wilson returns in the next few days... and KIRO AM talking head Mike Salk has humbly suggested giving Lopez a game or two off per week with his bat ice cold, and perhaps shifting Figgins to 3B so Josh Wilson can play 2B and stay in the lineup. Clearly, Josh is going to cool off at some point, but cooled off Josh Wilson could still be an effective contact and gap bat in this lineup, and rotating days off among the infield to get him playing time in a Jeff Keppinger or Ronnie Belliard sort of way may be a useful approach as long as he's helping the M's at the plate.

As for Michael Saunders, his emergence as a hitter could finally be for real this time, and Milton Bradley's forthcoming return produces a question with an easier, and sadder, answer: One of Ken Griffey Jr or Mike Sweeney has to go so Bradley can man the primary DH role and save his troubled legs. Even after Sleepygate, the easy choice to keep between the two old men is Junior, if you don't DL him if he continues to slump... at the plate, not in his barca-lounger.

Again, the average pitcher in Camden Yards gives up more runs than average, so don't be too discouraged with Cliff Lee's EXERA. Though some line drives and flyballs inflated his number, his performance wasn't too far from average today. He did get a lot of defensive help today, however.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-21-2010 (Seattle 4, Baltimore 1)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
BAL	Kevin Millwood	-3.107	0.000	-3.107	0.000	0.000
BAL	Matt Wieters	-0.020	0.117	0.000	-0.137	0.000
BAL	Garrett Atkins	1.026	0.129	0.000	0.897	0.000
BAL	Justin Turner	-2.411	-0.657	0.000	-1.754	0.000
BAL	Ty Wigginton	-2.134	-1.355	0.000	-0.128	-0.651
BAL	Cesar Izturis	0.249	0.104	0.000	0.145	0.000
BAL	Lou Montanez	3.101	-0.047	0.000	3.148	0.000
BAL	Adam Jones	0.777	-0.841	0.000	1.618	0.000
BAL	Nick Markakis	-0.362	0.417	0.000	-0.779	0.000
BAL	Luke Scott	-1.085	-1.085	0.000	0.000	0.000
BAL	BAL Luckbox	0.541	0.541	0.000	0.000	0.000
BAL	Dave Trembley	-0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000	0.000
BAL	Nolan Reimold	-0.217	-0.217	0.000	0.000	0.000

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
SEA	Felix Hernandez	-0.407	0.000	-0.483	0.076	0.000
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.793	1.096	0.000	-0.440	0.137
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.712	0.146	0.000	0.566	0.000
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.888	-0.464	0.000	-0.424	0.000
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.585	-0.449	0.000	1.034	0.000
SEA	Jack Wilson	2.169	2.747	0.000	-0.578	0.000
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	1.167	-0.365	0.000	1.532	0.000
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.567	-0.949	0.000	1.516	0.000
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.248	-0.994	0.000	0.746	0.000
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.785	0.785	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-1.463	-1.246	0.000	0.000	-0.217

Expected ERAs based on today's performances:

Kevin Millwood: 7.45

Felix Hernandez: 4.66

Player of the Game: Jack Wilson (2.169 NRuns: 2.747 hitting, -0.578 fielding)
... wait, run that by me again?: Jack Wilson (2.169 NRuns: 2.747 hitting, -0.578 fielding)
... you sure those aren't backwards? (Yes, I'm sure)

Felix: (-0.407 NRuns: -0.483 pitching, 0.076 fielding)
Mariners defensive NRuns: 4.028

Orioles Player of the Game in Defeat: Lou Montanez (3.101 NRuns: -0.047 hitting, 3.148 fielding)

Goat: Kevin Millwood (-3.107 NRuns, all pitching)

They were pretty bad too:
Justin Turner (-2.411 NRuns: -0.657 hitting, -1.754 fielding)
Ty Wigginton (-2.134 NRuns: -1.355 hitting, -0.128 fielding, -0.651 running)

Both team's DHs, Mike Sweeney and Luke Scott: -2.548 NRuns

******

The collective MVP of the Mariners in April, much like in 2009, has to be the defense, as Felix extended an okay outing to the wire with the help of excellent fielding. Jose Lopez, Matt Tuiasosopo (making a spot start in LF) and Franklin Gutierrez each saved more than a run in the field, while Ichiro and Casey Kotchman also made significant contributions.

One caveat: Three of Felix's six liners came during his 4th trip through the Baltimore Orioles' lineup, and most pitchers tend to get hit hard after three times through the lineup as 1) they fatigue and 2) hitters have seen them three times and have enough sense memory to catch up to their stuff during a 4th plate appearance.

Felix's third trip through the Orioles ended in coincidence with the end of the 7th inning, as Cesar Izturis flew out to center. Had his night ended there, his Expected ERA would have been a lot better at 3.72. Still not dominant, but then again Felix had only 4 of his 6 K's at that point and had given up three line drives. That's still a good outing given the average Expected ERA in Safeco Field is 4.21. Remember: Expected ERA assumes a league average defense and is based on an average run value for every ball in play. Given Felix was facing a crappy Baltimore lineup and had a great Mariners defense behind him, that he allowed only one run makes sense.

Though the game still ended in a Mariners victory and a CG for Felix, his last two frames are an example of why it's best to pull a starting pitcher after he's faced the full lineup three times. He allowed three line drives and a flyball to two groundballs and two K's in those final two frames. The Expected ERA from those two frames? 9.16. Good thing the Orioles were out of gas and the M's defense is still very good. Even though he had the game in control, Felix became a bit more beatable once the hitters got to see him a 4th time. I don't think fatigue was much of a factor until the 9th inning, but the Orioles seeing him a 4th time was probably a big factor.

(One note: 2009 and 2010 data shows that the 3rd and 4th times through the order produce similar numbers. But note that many lesser pitchers don't frequently see the lineup three full times, let alone a 4th time. They usually get part way through the 3rd trip before getting the hook. It's usually the hosses, the top pitchers in a staff, that get to see a lineup a 4th time. That the average numbers of these strong pitchers, on average, are on par with the 3rd trip through the order for every starter in the league, indicates what the combination of wear and in-game observation does to diminish the ace's chances in turn #4. Look at the pitch count stats to see how the wear affects pitchers.)

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-20-2010 (Seattle 3, Baltimore 1)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
BAL	David Hernandez	-4.318	0.000	-4.318	0.000	0.000
BAL	Matt Wieters	0.252	0.359	0.000	-0.107	0.000
BAL	Garrett Atkins	-0.870	-1.015	0.000	0.145	0.000
BAL	Julio Lugo	0.272	-0.464	0.000	0.736	0.000
BAL	Ty Wigginton	2.013	0.503	0.000	1.510	0.000
BAL	Cesar Izturis	0.059	-0.710	0.000	0.769	0.000
BAL	Luke Scott	-1.586	-0.986	0.000	-0.600	0.000
BAL	Adam Jones	-0.146	-0.812	0.000	0.666	0.000
BAL	Nick Markakis	1.218	-0.923	0.000	2.141	0.000
BAL	Nolan Reimold	0.286	0.286	0.000	0.000	0.000
BAL	BAL Luckbox	0.217	0.217	0.000	0.000	0.000
BAL	Dave Trembley	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
BAL	Will Ohman	0.449	0.000	0.449	0.000	0.000
BAL	Matt Albers	0.003	0.000	-0.142	0.145	0.000

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
SEA	Jason Vargas	0.791	0.000	0.791	0.000	0.000
SEA	Adam Moore	-0.074	-0.074	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-1.244	-1.244	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.458	-0.293	0.000	0.469	-0.634
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.738	-0.475	0.000	0.171	-0.434
SEA	Jack Wilson	1.064	0.662	0.000	0.402	0.000
SEA	Milton Bradley	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.723	-0.243	0.000	1.966	0.000
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.497	0.125	0.000	0.265	0.107
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	0.237	0.237	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.829	0.829	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Eric Byrnes	-0.581	-0.603	0.000	0.022	0.000
SEA	Mark Lowe	-0.183	0.000	-0.183	0.000	0.000
SEA	David Aardsma	0.235	0.000	0.235	0.000	0.000

Expected ERAs based on today's performances:

David Hernandez: 9.90
Will Ohman: 0.00
Matt Albers: 5.40

Jason Vargas: 3.27
Mark Lowe: 5.74
David Aardsma: 2.25

Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (1.723 NRuns: -0.243 hitting, 1.966 fielding)
Rest of defense: 1.329 NRuns
Mariners Baserunning: -0.961 NRuns
Sometimes he can hit too: Jack Wilson (1.064 NRuns: 0.662 hitting, 0.402 fielding)
This all came with one swing of the bat: Milton Bradley (1.000 NRuns, all hitting)

Goat: David Hernandez (-4.318 NRuns)
Way better than yesterday: Ty Wigginton (2.013 NRuns: 0.503 hitting, 1.510 fielding)

Not quite a Bonderman, but pretty bad, was David Hernandez's performance. Though he did manage 6 1/3 innings, he had a lot of luck (some of which was the Mariners innovative ability to make outs) and defense to help him overcome a slew of line drives (he had five in the final 2.1 innings alone). David Hernandez has some good stuff. And as of right now, just like last year, he's not a very good pitcher. If he pitched another day like he pitched today, he probably doesn't get out of the 4th inning. It's too bad he has to learn in the bigs on a bad team, but he's got a lot of learning to do if he's going to harness his talent and become a good pitcher.

On the flip side, Jason Vargas is making a strong case to stay in the rotation not just when Cliff Lee returns at the end of the month, but also when Erik Bedard returns in a month or two. While Doug Fister has tiptoed to some fine performances, a look at his BIP stats shows that he's more beatable than meets the eye. The surprising candidate to get the bump to the pen (or Tacoma) is Ian Snell, only surprising because at season's start he wasn't more than a dark horse candidate to get voted off rotation island, but has done some work towards pitching himself off the rotation. Vargas has pitched well, and Fister has managed some nice looking performances. Snell hasn't done much of either, and while he's had some extenuating circumstances around his first few starts (illness and a death in the family), his performance has left a lot to be desired and at this point he's the top candidate to get bumped when Cliff Lee returns.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-19-2010 (Seattle 8, Baltimore 2)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
BAL	Brad Bergesen	-2.961	0.000	-2.961	0.000	0.000
BAL	Matt Wieters	-0.314	-0.314	0.000	0.000	0.000
BAL	Luke Scott	0.559	0.414	0.000	0.145	0.000
BAL	Julio Lugo	0.880	-0.434	0.000	1.314	0.000
BAL	Ty Wigginton	0.016	1.069	0.000	-1.053	0.000
BAL	Cesar Izturis	-1.377	-0.645	0.000	-0.732	0.000
BAL	Lou Montanez	0.233	-0.662	0.000	0.895	0.000
BAL	Adam Jones	0.734	-0.674	0.000	1.408	0.000
BAL	Nick Markakis	-0.856	-0.374	0.000	-0.482	0.000
BAL	Nolan Reimold	-0.925	-0.491	0.000	0.000	-0.434
BAL	BAL Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
BAL	Dave Trembley	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
BAL	Jason Berken	-0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000	0.000
BAL	Kam Mickolio	-0.173	0.000	-0.173	0.000	0.000

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
SEA	Doug Fister	-0.859	0.000	-1.156	0.297	0.000
SEA	Rob Johnson	-1.093	-1.093	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Casey Kotchman	2.572	2.572	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.825	-0.593	0.000	1.418	0.000
SEA	Jose Lopez	-1.358	-0.963	0.000	0.086	-0.481
SEA	Jack Wilson	0.962	0.670	0.000	0.155	0.137
SEA	Milton Bradley	2.288	0.344	0.000	1.944	0.000
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	2.137	2.137	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	1.247	0.477	0.000	0.770	0.000
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.874	0.129	0.000	0.000	-1.003
SEA	SEA Luckbox	1.390	1.390	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Eric Byrnes	0.237	0.237	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Brandon League	0.138	0.000	0.138	0.000	0.000
SEA	Shawn Kelley	-0.155	0.000	-0.155	0.000	0.000

Expected ERAs based on today's pitching performances:

Brad Bergesen: 13.48
Jason Berken: 5.70
Kam Mickolio: 5.66

Doug Fister: 5.59
Brandon League: 3.06
Shawn Kelley: 5.51

Player of the Game: Casey Kotchman (2.572 NRuns, all hitting)
Key Contributor #2: Milton Bradley (2.288 NRuns, 0.344 hitting, 1.944 fielding)
Key Contributor #3: Franklin Gutierrez (2.137 NRuns, all hitting)
Seattle's good luck: 1.390 NRuns
This guy had a no hitter entering the 7th? Doug Fister (-0.859 NRuns, -1.156 pitching, 0.297 fielding)

This guy sure didn't: Brad Bergesen (-2.961 NRuns, all pitching)

Doug Fister overcame a shaky 1st inning to retire something like 16 consecutive batters to take a no-no into the 7th before Nick Markakis strung a grounder into center to lead off the 7th, and then back to back liners later in the frame killed the shutout. Aside from that poor last inning, Doug's Net Runs total sunk with the help of the bad 1st frame and three line drives during the game. Many of the strikeouts and pop outs Doug collected were with the bases empty and 1 or 2 outs, which minimized their positive RE value and their ability to cancel out the costly line drives. Entering that 7th inning his expected ERA based on his performance in the first six frames was an underwhelming 4.70, and the hits allowed in the 7th didn't help.

While his defense helped him out a lot (Chone Figgins made a couple of impressive plays), surprisingly the team's two best fielders at their respective positions, Franklin Gutierrez in CF and Casey Kotchman at 1B, did not play a part. Franklin did not catch a single ball today, and Kotchman did not field anything other than pop ups, relays and putout throws. The defensive studs that did most of the heavy defensive lifting? Chone Figgins, of course... and Milton Bradley in LF. Granted, Bradley has help from Safeco's infamous seaside air and flyball killing jetstream in from LF. But for a guy who was considered a weakness defensively in LF, Milton Bradley has been a consistently solid fielder in left who has gotten to virtually every ball he can, and it shows in his Net Runs total.

Brad Bergesen's expected ERA looks like the price of a lovely sit-down breakfast.

Brad Bergesen is a notable Baltimore Oriole... ?

To me, Brad Bergesen's freak shoulder injury suffered while filming a 2010 Orioles commercial raises not the question of how he could let his conditioning lapse during offseason recovery from another injury, then try to throw at full speed just for effect in a 30 second spot ad.

No, my question is why Brad Bergesen was the subject of an ad in the first place.

Now, Bergesen is a one of Baltimore's many young, reasonably talented hurlers, and at age 24 with a useful 88-91 mph fastball and a decent slider, he's got potential. Though his 3.43 ERA in 2009 was a bit of the product of smoke and mirrors (4.42 FIP) and his minor league numbers in pitcher friendly East Coast leagues were solid but not necessarily inspiring... there's no reason for Orioles fan to be down on their young prospect.

But giving him his own ad? What, was Adam Jones busy? Are they not expecting as much from Chris Tillman? After Jones, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis and Miguel Tejada, were they just fishing for one more guy of substance to round out the set of commercials, and he was just at the top of the list?

Because we're not exactly talking about Baltimore's answer to Tim Lincecum or Felix Hernandez here: Bergesen is a top pitching prospect, sure. But his numbers indicate more of a potentially reliable starter in the rotation, rather than Baltimore's next star hurler. If anything, Tillman and Brian Matusz are bigger possibilities to emerge as the next star pitcher for Baltimore's future.

If nothing else, it indicates how thin the star power pool is in Baltimore, which rivals DC's Nationals not just as a regional sister team, but in their competitive irrelevance and lack of household names.

An updated look at the AL East

Toronto - Like the Angels, the Blue Jays have a litany of pitcher injuries, leading to scores of replacement level innings that drag down their chances at .500 baseball, not that they had much of a chance in the loaded AL East to begin with. Backup catcher Michael Barrett is also on the DL for a couple weeks with a minor injury sustained while fielding a wild pitch. 75-80 wins in a sub-.500 campaign is more likely now.

Tampa Bay - Ben Zobrist and Gabe Kapler may see more time, but otherwise, this is the same 94-96 win squad that may just miss the wildcard by a game or two. They've stayed healthy.

NY Yankees - With Chien Ming Wang going down, the Yankees appeared in trouble until news broke that Alex Rodriguez would begin rehab assignments this week with a targeted return in early May. Having A-Rod for most of the season boost the Yanks in light of the loss of Wang and Xavier Nady. In fact, the drastic improvement of Nick Swisher defensively in RF over Nady more than offsets any recent personnel losses. The Rays gained some ground, but not enough to stop the Yankees from a 95-98 win campaign and the wildcard.

Boston - Losing Daisuke Matsuzaka for a spell is only a slip: at this stage it's expected he'll make one or two DL trips per year. Jonathan Van Every takes over as the backup outfielder, and there are a few strange faces in the bullpen. But otherwise, this team remains on track for 100 wins and the AL East title, as the big guns remain in place.

Baltimore - Lou Montanez is a solid addition to the bench in lieu of the injured Ryan Freel, and Brian Bergesen is the best of the Orioles' options for a blank rotation spot: He should do fine. Still, this is a 90-95 loss team.

An educated guess about the AL East for 2009

AL East:

1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

The Red Sox have the best lineup, one of the best defenses and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. This division is theirs for the taking unless something catastrophic happens.

The Rays just don’t have the firepower to outhit the Yankees and Red Sox, but they have the talent to outplay any other team in any other division.

What will eventually do in the Yankees’ division title hopes is their subpar defense: Jeter’s liability as a defensive SS is starting to enter public knowledge, A-Rod’s slipped at 3B himself (plus he’s going to miss about half the season, with the questionable Cody Ransom taking his place), and Xavier Nady’s injury actually led the Yankees to upgrade his subpar defense in RF by playing Nick Swisher. That said, they should still outlast the Rays for the Wildcard, as the Yankees have more offense and much better pitching, which can offset the defensive shortcomings.

Toronto’s patchwork pitching staff, led by a very strong Roy Halladay, should work well with a solid defense to get the Blue Jays around .500 despite a subpar offense, not bad for a 4th place team in MLB’s toughest division.

The Orioles have an average lineup and a decent defense, but their pitching situation is horrid, with a lack of depth leading them to run AAA-worthy arms out there. Expect 100 losses.