1. Since drafting Joe Mauer 1st overall in 2001 the Minnesota Twins have had 16 1st round selections thanks to Type A and B compensation, and have whiffed on all but two of those: Only Denard Span (2002), Matt Garza (2005) and Glen Perkins (2004) have seen serious time in the Majors. Perkins turned out rather ordinary while Garza didn't hit his stride until he was traded to Tampa Bay and only now is Span paying dividends after a ton of time in the minors.
Even the woebegone Pirates, notorious for whiffing on high picks, managed to get six of their picks in the 2000's to the bigs, and once Brad Lincoln gets an expected callup sometime this year that will make it seven.
2. In back to back years, the Yankees drafted players in the 2nd round who didn't sign and went on to prominent football careers. In 1981 they burned their 2nd rounder on an OF named John Elway, and in 1982 they spent a 2nd round pick on a high school SS named Bo Jackson. The latter of course comes with an obvious caveat: Bo Jackson would become a two sport star at Auburn University and eventually get drafted in the 4th round of the 1986 draft by the Kansas City Royals, going on to a famous dual career with the Royals and football's Los Angeles Raiders.
3. You'd be hard pressed to find a team that drafted more MLB value in the 3rd round than the Texas Rangers, but sadly most of that value paid off for other teams.
Dean Palmer (1986) would go on to a solid career with the Detroit Tigers. Scott Podsednik (1994) would eventually break in with the Mariners, see his first regular action with the Brewers and go on to win a World Series with the White Sox. Ryan Dempster (1995) broke in with the Marlins and has since gone on to a productive career with the Cubs. And their biggest 3rd round prize, Barry Zito (1998), did most of his damage as a star for the rival Oakland Athletics.
The only 3rd rounder the Rangers picked who became a solid player under their watch? Darren Oliver (1988) became a productive pitcher for them during the 1990's, and at age 39 is coincidentally with them today as their top lefthanded reliever.
4. The 4th round is where the percentage of eventual MLBers really drops. But the Angels had the most prolific stretch of 4th rounders prior to 1996, producing 16 players that would eventually reach the bigs out of 30 4th round selections. Key regulars from this stretch included catcher Brian Harper, pitchers Mike Witt and Kirk McCaskill, and LF Garret Anderson. But since 1995, only one of their 4th round picks has reached the bigs, and the one that did got away: Brian Matusz passed on the Angels offer, went to college and eventually got drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in 2008.
Prolifically barren histories include the aforementioned Pirates, who of their 45 selections only produced 8 players who eventually saw MLB time, and of those eight only Jeff Keppinger (2001), Wes Chamberlain (1987) and pitcher Stew Cliburn (1977) would become MLB regulars for any real length of time. The Brewers only produced 7 major leaguers from 43 picks, and none of those picks produced more than 0.5 WAR over their careers. Granted, one of those MLBers was the late Josh Hancock, who died in a car wreck very early in his career with the Cardinals, and the jury's out on 2005 pick Mat Gamel.
The greatest 4th round pick of all time had to come from the Oakland A's in 1976, when they burned the 96th overall pick on a local outfielder from Technical HS named Rickey Henderson.
The Dodgers had the most interesting stretch of 4th rounders. After drafting eventual catcher Steve Yeager in 1967, the Dodgers had 19 consecutive 4th round picks between 1970-1989 that never played a game in the big leagues. Following that, 9 of their next 13 4th round selections would go on to play in the Majors, though none ever became a productive regular. Since 2003 none of their 4th rounders have reached the Majors.
Showing posts with label Anaheim Angels. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Anaheim Angels. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-6-2010 (Anaheim 9, Seattle 4)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | Joel Pineiro | -0.594 | 0.000 | -0.343 | -0.251 | 0.000 | 4.69 | 18 |
| ANA | Mike Napoli | 2.888 | 2.888 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Robb Quinlan | 1.048 | 0.713 | 0.000 | 0.335 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Howie Kendrick | -0.404 | -0.752 | 0.000 | 0.348 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Kevin Frandsen | -0.875 | -0.875 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Erick Aybar | 0.653 | 1.655 | 0.000 | -1.161 | 0.159 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Juan Rivera | 0.903 | 0.109 | 0.000 | 0.794 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Torii Hunter | 0.192 | -0.094 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Bobby Abreu | -1.382 | -1.839 | 0.000 | 0.457 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Hideki Matsui | 0.389 | 0.389 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Fernando Rodney | -0.187 | 0.000 | -0.187 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.77 | 3 |
| ANA | Francisco Rodriguez | 0.771 | 0.000 | 0.474 | 0.297 | 0.000 | 0.26 | 3 |
| ANA | Kevin Jepsen | 0.283 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.85 | 3 |
| ANA | ANA Luckbox | 2.102 | 2.102 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Scoiscia | -0.194 | 0.000 | -0.194 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Jason Vargas | -1.556 | 0.000 | -1.399 | -0.157 | 0.000 | 6.16 | 18 |
| SEA | Eliezer Alfonzo | -0.312 | -0.312 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | -0.576 | -0.741 | 0.000 | 0.165 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -0.347 | 0.408 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.755 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -0.686 | 1.155 | 0.000 | -1.841 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 0.796 | 0.533 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | 0.319 | -0.304 | 0.000 | 0.623 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 1.852 | -0.865 | 0.000 | 2.717 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 3.427 | 1.189 | 0.000 | 2.238 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | -0.358 | -0.358 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Brandon League | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.04 | 3 |
| SEA | Matt Tuiasosopo | -1.660 | -0.689 | 0.000 | -0.971 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | David Aardsma | -1.356 | 0.000 | -1.356 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 21.18 | 2 |
| SEA | Luke French | -0.421 | 0.000 | -0.421 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 14.75 | 1 |
| SEA | Shawn Kelley | -1.935 | 0.000 | -1.935 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 28.43 | 2 |
| SEA | Garrett Olson | -0.708 | 0.000 | -0.708 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 21.93 | 1 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.194 | 0.194 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 2.766 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.766 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.505 |
How Net Runs works
(Note the new number in the lower right corner of the home team table. This is the run expectancy for every half inning in the home park.)
Player of the Game: Ichiro (3.427 NRuns: 1.189 hitting, 2.238 fielding)
Mariners pitching: -5.319 NRuns
Mariners below -1.000 NRuns: 4 (Vargas, Tuiasosopo, Aardsma, Kelley)
Goat: Shawn Kelley (-1.935 pitching NRuns... 28.43 EXERA)
I will not dignify this effort with descriptive or analytical text.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-5-2010 (Anaheim 11, Seattle 2)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | Ervin Santana | 1.040 | 0.000 | -0.498 | 1.538 | 0.000 | 4.91 | 18 |
| ANA | Bobby Wilson | -1.140 | -0.738 | 0.000 | -0.402 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Napoli | -0.091 | -0.343 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.032 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Howie Kendrick | 1.223 | 1.460 | 0.000 | -0.237 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Maicer Izturis | 1.499 | 2.058 | 0.000 | -0.559 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Erick Aybar | 0.186 | -0.341 | 0.000 | 0.527 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Juan Rivera | 1.442 | 0.754 | 0.000 | 0.905 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Torii Hunter | 3.407 | 3.158 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Bobby Abreu | 1.520 | 0.940 | 0.000 | 0.580 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Hideki Matsui | -0.870 | -0.870 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Kevin Frandsen | 0.750 | 0.389 | 0.000 | 0.361 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Robb Quinlan | -0.217 | -0.169 | 0.000 | -0.048 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Reggie Willits | -0.098 | -0.098 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Jason Bulger | 0.497 | 0.000 | 0.497 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.14 | 6 |
| ANA | Scot Shields | -0.808 | 0.000 | -0.808 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 10.95 | 3 |
| ANA | ANA Luckbox | 0.660 | 0.440 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Scoiscia | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Ryan Rowland-Smith | -1.484 | 0.000 | -1.484 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.69 | 15 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | 0.642 | 0.562 | 0.000 | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | 0.260 | -0.607 | 0.000 | 0.867 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | 1.662 | 1.338 | 0.000 | 0.924 | -0.600 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -2.151 | -1.794 | 0.000 | -0.357 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | -2.773 | -0.463 | 0.000 | -2.310 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | 0.796 | -0.908 | 0.000 | 2.059 | -0.355 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | -1.178 | -1.485 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.141 | 1.380 | 0.000 | -1.239 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | -0.160 | -0.297 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.137 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ryan Langerhans | 0.440 | 0.440 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Garrett Olson | -0.150 | 0.000 | -0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.97 | 1 |
| SEA | Shawn Kelley | -3.092 | 0.000 | -3.092 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 81.60 | 1 |
| SEA | Sean White | -1.416 | 0.000 | -1.416 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 13.07 | 4 |
| SEA | Brandon League | -0.376 | 0.000 | -0.376 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.35 | 3 |
| SEA | Chad Cordero | 0.142 | 0.000 | 0.142 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.03 | 3 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | -0.303 | 0.000 | -0.303 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Torii Hunter (3.407 NRuns: 3.158 hitting, 0.249 fielding)
Angels with over 1.000 NRuns: 6 (Santana, Hunter, Kendrick, Izturis, Rivera, Abreu)
Angels hitting: 6.200 NRuns
Mariners worse than -1.000 NRuns: 6
Mariners pitching: -6.376 NRuns
Mariners hitting: -1.834 NRuns
Goat: Shawn Kelley (-3.092 pitching NRuns, 81.60 EXERA)
I'd credit Chone Figgins for Mariners player of the game honors, except go figure he did a lot of his damage in garbage time. Of course.
Ryan Rowland-Smith's first two innings were good. It was the other three that needed some polish. Of course, that's nothing compared to the middle relief, which needs to be amputated.
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-4-2010 (Anaheim 7, Seattle 1)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | Joe Saunders | -1.874 | 0.000 | -1.989 | 0.115 | 0.000 | 6.98 | 18 |
| ANA | Mike Napoli | -1.584 | -1.477 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Ryan | 0.150 | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Howie Kendrick | 1.563 | 0.686 | 0.000 | 0.877 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Maicer Izturis | 1.302 | 0.775 | 0.000 | 0.527 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Erick Aybar | 0.370 | -0.309 | 0.000 | 0.679 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Hideki Matsui | 3.964 | 3.238 | 0.000 | 0.726 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Torii Hunter | 0.017 | -0.376 | 0.000 | 0.393 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Juan Rivera | 1.755 | 0.248 | 0.000 | 1.507 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Bobby Abreu | -0.183 | -0.183 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Trevor Bell | 0.317 | 0.000 | 0.317 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.89 | 6 |
| ANA | Francisco Rodriguez | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.04 | 3 |
| ANA | Reggie Willits | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Robb Quinlan | -0.324 | -0.324 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | ANA Luckbox | 0.027 | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Scoiscia | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Ian Snell | -2.136 | 0.000 | -2.136 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.55 | 16 |
| SEA | Eliezer Alfonzo | -0.382 | -0.462 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Matt Tuiasosopo | -0.771 | 0.150 | 0.000 | -0.921 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -1.544 | -0.893 | 0.000 | 0.217 | -0.868 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -0.341 | -0.460 | 0.000 | 0.119 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | -0.689 | -0.603 | 0.000 | 0.131 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ryan Langerhans | -0.095 | -0.965 | 0.000 | 0.870 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 0.259 | -0.088 | 0.000 | 0.347 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 2.754 | 1.629 | 0.000 | 1.018 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | -1.014 | -1.014 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chad Cordero | -0.172 | 0.000 | -0.172 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.65 | 3 |
| SEA | Garrett Olson | 0.228 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.26 | 6 |
| SEA | Sean White | 0.138 | 0.000 | 0.138 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.49 | 2 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.252 | 0.032 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 2.487 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.487 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Hideki Matsui (3.964 NRuns: 3.238 hitting, 0.726 fielding)
Positive Angels contributions: 9
Negative Angels contributions: 4
Positive Mariners contributions: 4 (2 from the last two relievers once the game was out of reach)
Negative Mariners contributions: 9
Ichiro: 2.754 NRuns (1.629 hitting, 1.018 fielding, 0.107 running)
Rest of Mariners: -6.519 NRuns
Goat: Ian Snell (-2.136 pitching NRuns... 7.55 EXERA)
******
So with yet another game out of reach, Wak emptied the back of the bullpen to test drive new arrivals Chad Cordero and Garrett Olson, plus see if pet reliever Sean White had shown any progress from his brief time in Tacoma. Sure enough, Sean White is still hittable, Chad Cordero is still a hittable flyballer (and many have no idea how well old RFK Stadium masked that weakness when Cordero closed for the Nats years ago, but that's another story), and Garrett Olson allowed two flyballs and a grounder to three batters. You're never going to learn too much in mop-up time as the other side's typically going through the motions, but there you go. The M's needed extra arms for a rough stretch of games, and discovered that the new arrivals aren't particularly good. Are we sure adding Brian Sweeney from Tacoma isn't on the table?
If Ian Snell is the goat (and way to step up in these gift starts, champ), the runner up for goat status has to go to former Angel Chone Figgins, who continues to find ways to stink it up in games against his old team. Wak might not be too far out of line just to bench Chone in games against the Angels, as it seems like he's charitable with gifts to his old team, whether it's a timely miss on a grounder in the field, an inning killing strikeout or a pitcher-bailing double play ball. I'm not going to say Chone's taking a dive to help his old friends out, but we're rapidly approaching the point where, much like you can expect Jose Lopez not to hit during cold weather months, you can expect bad games from Chone Figgins when his old team comes calling.
The M's probably need to go anywhere from 63-45 to 71-37 the rest of the way to have a decent shot at the playoffs. They need to run off a couple of six game winning streaks just to get themselves back into the picture. I'm not seeing it happen with this group, a group that rolled over and played dead against the hittably awful Joe Saunders once Snell let the Angels build a big lead.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-30-2010 (Anaheim 9, Seattle 7)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Ian Snell | -0.738 | 0.000 | -0.749 | 0.011 | 0.000 | 6.05 | 12 |
| SEA | Eliezer Alfonzo | 0.637 | 2.354 | 0.000 | -0.432 | -1.285 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | 0.803 | 0.722 | 0.000 | 0.081 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -0.426 | 0.100 | 0.000 | -0.526 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | 0.930 | 0.930 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 0.420 | 0.816 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.396 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | -0.027 | -1.061 | 0.000 | 0.893 | 0.141 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 0.593 | -0.778 | 0.000 | 1.371 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 1.942 | 1.319 | 0.000 | 0.623 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | -0.839 | -0.839 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jesus Colome | 0.169 | 0.000 | 0.169 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.08 | 3 |
| SEA | Kanekoa Texeira | -1.616 | 0.000 | -1.768 | 0.152 | 0.000 | 26.61 | 2 |
| SEA | Shawn Kelley | 1.587 | 0.000 | 1.478 | 0.109 | 0.000 | -0.80 | 7 |
| SEA | David Aardsma | -0.995 | 0.000 | -1.102 | 0.107 | 0.000 | 32.07 | 1 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.135 | 0.135 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | Joe Saunders | -3.180 | 0.000 | -3.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 10.61 | 13 |
| ANA | Bobby Wilson | -0.646 | -0.646 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Napoli | -0.903 | -1.093 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Howie Kendrick | 5.113 | 2.596 | 0.000 | 2.517 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Maicer Izturis | -1.372 | -1.453 | 0.000 | 0.081 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Erick Aybar | 1.347 | 1.437 | 0.000 | 0.478 | -0.568 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Hideki Matsui | 1.893 | 1.096 | 0.000 | 0.797 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Reggie Willits | 1.322 | 0.569 | 0.000 | 0.538 | 0.215 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Juan Rivera | -1.127 | -0.194 | 0.000 | -0.933 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Bobby Abreu | 0.809 | 1.487 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.678 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Kevin Frandsen | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Trevor Bell | -0.071 | 0.000 | -0.071 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.84 | 5 |
| ANA | Jason Bulger | -0.077 | 0.000 | -0.077 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.97 | 4 |
| ANA | Kevin Jepsen | 0.324 | 0.000 | 0.324 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.43 | 2 |
| ANA | Fernando Rodney | -0.686 | 0.000 | -0.686 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 10.21 | 3 |
| ANA | ANA Luckbox | 1.678 | 1.678 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Scoiscia | -0.135 | 0.000 | -0.135 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Angels Stadium | 6.864 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -6.864 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Howie Kendrick (5.113 NRuns: 2.596 hitting, 2.517 fielding)
Angels with contributions above 1.000 NRuns: 4 (Kendrick, Aybar, Matsui and Willits)
Angels Luckbox: 1.678 NRuns
Great hitting and bad everything else: Eliezer Alfonzo (0.637 NRuns: 2.354 hitting, -0.432 fielding, -1.285 running)
Eliezer's catcher's interference: -1.000 NRuns
Mariners Player of the Game: Ichiro (1.942 NRuns: 1.319 hitting, 0.623 fielding)
Shawn Kelley: 1.478 pitching NRuns
Jesus Colome: 0.169 pitching NRuns
All other Mariners pitching: -3.619 NRuns
Mariners hitting: 3.563 NRuns
Mariners defense: 2.389 NRuns
Mariners baserunning: -1.540 NRuns
Goat: Joe Saunders (-3.180 pitching NRuns... 10.61 EXERA)
Mariners scapegoats: Kanekoa Texeira and David Aardsma (-2.611 NRuns: -2.870 pitching, 0.259 fielding)
******
Ian Snell managed to completely undo a decent 4 innings with two walks to start the 5th. Both walks were worth a total of -1.060 NRuns, and Snell came into the 5th with a total of 0.311 pitching NRuns, good for a 4.14 EXERA and an indicator that he was pitching just fine.
So here's why Jesus Colome wasn't credited with -2.000 NRuns worth of meltdown in that frame. When he entered the game with men on 1st and 2nd and nobody out, the Angels had a run expectancy of 1.598 NRuns. In other words, you expect the average team in that situation to score about 1.6 runs. If the offense comes away empty handed, the pitching/defense somehow saved 1.6 runs.
So here's Colome's line blow by blow. All run expectancy numbers are derived from a composite of 2005-2009 season data and park adjusted to Angels Stadium:
- Maicer Izturis flies out to center. Colome loses 0.059 NRuns for the flyball while Franklin Gutierrez saves 0.644 NRuns in catching it. However, Reggie Willits tags up at 2nd and takes 3rd, adding 0.215 runs to the Angels' expectancy and costing Franklin 0.215 NRuns since he controlled the ball when Willits took his base. With men on 1st and 3rd and one out the run expectancy is now 1.228 runs.
- Colome then walks Bobby Abreu to load the bases, losing 0.498 NRuns in doing so and raising the Angels run expectancy to 1.726 runs.
- Hideki Matsui pops out for the 2nd out. As pop ups are damn near an automatic out, Colome receives full credit for getting Matsui to swing underneath a pitch and produce an easy out, earning Colome 0.918 NRuns. With two outs and the bases loaded the Angels' run expectancy is now 0.808 runs.
- Colome walks Juan Rivera to force in a run. Since the run expectancy remains the same and the play scored a run, Colome gets docked 1.000 NRuns.
- Colome strikes out Mike Napoli to end the inning. Colome gets 0.808 NRuns as the Angels' run expectancy drops, of course, to 0.
Colome's final tally in that frame? 0.169 NRuns, good for a 3.03 EXERA. You saw him walk two guys, one walk forcing in a run, and already disliking him for his reputation as a fringe fireballer you likely gave him all the credit for the damage in that frame.
However, he came in with the run expectancy at nearly two runs thanks to the two Ian Snell walks that started the inning, and the Mariners came away only having allowed only one run. While the two walks did a lot of damage, the pop up and strikeout were just as huge, as the higher the run expectancy gets, the more critical every out becomes. This is the beauty of Net Runs: There's no need to calculate a leverage index, because run expectancy already has it built in. Riskier base/out situations make outs and bases more valuable. Colome's walks were huge. And so were his outs, because they severely limited the Angels' potential damage and did not allow them to advance baserunners.
I'm not writing this as a treatise to defend the guy. I'm in agreement with the saber status quo that Colome should not have been called up back in April and should have had to show in Tacoma that he had the control and secondary stuff to get MLB hitters out. I agree that, of the 11 current Mariner pitchers, he probably helps the team least right now.
But today is not necessarily an example of Jesus Colome's liabilities. He walked into a bad situation in the 5th, and any pitcher giving an average effort in this situation still would have allowed 1-2 runs. Shawn Kelley or Kanekoa Texeira probably don't do much better with two on and nobody out. That Colome allowed only one run was an accomplishment... a minor accomplishment, but one nonetheless.
Now... speaking of Kanekoa, he was awful today. And David Aardsma was awful today as well. Defensive miscues were not the key to their disaster innings... save for Eliezer Alfonzo getting called for catcher's interference in the 6th to produce one of the M's two runs. But Texeira prior to that call walked in a run and helped load the bags to begin with with a line drive, two flyballs and a walk.
David Aardsma led off the 9th with a walk, got a flyout, allowed a liner and then gave up the fatal flyball that carried over the fence for Howie Kendrick. Of the four batters he faced, two of the outcomes were okay (if you consider the flyball that happened to carry over the fence "okay" and/or unlucky) and two were awful.
Going back to Alfonzo, he quickly wiped out the goodwill around his three run bomb (2.060 NRuns... remember the M's run expectancy indicates the M's expect to score some runs with men on there), and to a lesser extent the runner he caught stealing in the 3rd (0.678 NRuns), with some examples of why he wasn't on a big league roster in the first place, running into an out at 3B in the 4th (-0.779 NRuns), hitting into a double play in the 9th (-1.013 NRuns) and the aforementioned catcher's interference in the 6th (-1.000 NRuns) that forced in a run. Rarely will you see a guy pile up such a grab bag of big plays both for and against his team in a single game, let alone his on-field debut with said team.
Howie Kendrick's walkoff bomb capped off what has to be one of the best single game Net Runs performances I've seen from a position player this season. He not only produced over 2 runs at the plate but prevented over 2 runs in the field at 2B.
At 30 losses and counting and 11 games under .500, the M's don't have a lot of room left for error... if you still think they have a shot at the division title in the first place.
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-29-2010 (Anaheim 5, Seattle 1, 10 innings)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Felix Hernandez | -0.318 | 0.000 | -0.895 | 0.577 | 0.000 | 5.42 | 24 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | -0.757 | -0.647 | 0.000 | -0.110 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Matt Tuiasosopo | -0.648 | -0.950 | 0.000 | 0.898 | -0.596 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -1.487 | -0.786 | 0.000 | -0.811 | 0.110 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -0.216 | -0.091 | 0.000 | -0.125 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | -0.320 | -1.084 | 0.000 | 0.764 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | -0.504 | -0.788 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 2.500 | 0.100 | 0.000 | 2.259 | 0.141 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 1.308 | 0.166 | 0.000 | 0.786 | 0.356 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | -1.732 | -1.732 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Brandon League | 0.490 | 0.000 | 0.349 | 0.141 | 0.000 | 2.30 | 4 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 1.682 | 1.421 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | -0.308 | 0.000 | -0.308 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | Jered Weaver | 1.584 | 0.000 | 1.448 | 0.136 | 0.000 | 2.76 | 21 |
| ANA | Bobby Wilson | -0.660 | -0.053 | 0.000 | -0.607 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Kendry Morales | 2.804 | 2.804 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Howie Kendrick | -1.221 | -0.830 | 0.000 | -0.157 | -0.234 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Maicer Izturis | -0.512 | -0.512 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Erick Aybar | -1.623 | -1.187 | 0.000 | -0.436 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Ryan | -1.307 | -0.938 | 0.000 | -0.369 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Torii Hunter | 0.135 | 0.135 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Bobby Abreu | 2.652 | 0.767 | 0.000 | 1.775 | 0.110 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Hideki Matsui | -0.610 | -0.610 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Francisco Rodriguez | 1.005 | 0.000 | 0.576 | 0.429 | 0.000 | 2.09 | 6 |
| ANA | Brian Fuentes | 0.538 | 0.000 | 0.538 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 3 |
| ANA | Reggie Willits | 0.377 | -0.670 | 0.000 | 1.047 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Kevin Frandsen | -0.141 | -0.141 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | ANA Luckbox | 1.528 | 1.528 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Scoiscia | -0.261 | -0.261 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Angels Stadium | 3.978 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -3.978 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Mariners Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.500 NRuns: 0.100 hitting, 2.259 fielding, 0.141 running)
Tui's bad tag-up for 3B in the 4th: -0.596 NRuns
All other Mariners baserunning: 0.607 NRuns
Chone's fatal E-4 in the 10th: -1.220 NRuns
All other Mariners defense: 5.883 NRuns
Brandon League's contribution in that 10th inning: -0.079 NRuns
League's contribution in the 9th: 0.428 NRuns
Positive Mariners contributions: 3 (Gutierrez, Ichiro and Brandon League)
Negative Mariners contributions: 8 (9 if you include manager Don Wakamatsu)
Mariners luckbox: 1.682 NRuns
Mariners hitting: -5.812 NRuns
Goat: Milton Bradley (-1.732 hitting NRuns)
******
Despite no hitting, despite subpar pitching by Felix Hernandez... the Mariners had this game in the bag thanks to one of the Mariners defense's best efforts this season, and that's saying something with one of MLB's best defenses.
The giveaway: Felix hanging one fastball too many and Bobby Abreu dropping it on the tarp past the CF wall, and a concoction of mistakes in the bottom 10th (The Figgins error and Wak's previous decision to intentionally walk Abreu) that set up the Morales bomb.
Even despite their weak hitting against Jered Weaver, the M's had their share of chances to cash in extra runs. Tui's bad baserunning helped kill one of those chances. Milton Bradley and some untimely strikeouts with RISP helped kill two others early in the game. Felix could have easily finished his start protecting a 3-0 lead instead of 1-0.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-28-2010 (Seattle 8, Anaheim 3)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Cliff Lee | -1.140 | 0.000 | 0.224 | -1.364 | 0.000 | 4.25 | 24 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | -0.171 | -0.331 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.160 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | -0.317 | -0.317 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | 1.519 | 1.925 | 0.000 | 0.701 | -1.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | 0.788 | 0.696 | 0.000 | 0.092 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 0.847 | 0.478 | 0.000 | 0.369 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | -0.182 | -0.047 | 0.000 | -0.135 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 3.278 | 1.584 | 0.000 | 0.966 | 0.728 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.970 | 0.525 | 0.000 | 0.445 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | -1.388 | -1.388 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Shawn Kelley | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.90 | 3 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.486 | 0.252 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | Scott Kazmir | -1.930 | 0.000 | -2.093 | 0.163 | 0.000 | 7.76 | 16 |
| ANA | Mike Napoli | -0.897 | -0.897 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Kendry Morales | 0.071 | -0.065 | 0.000 | 0.136 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Howie Kendrick | 0.879 | 0.635 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Kevin Frandsen | 0.241 | 0.534 | 0.000 | -0.293 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Erick Aybar | -0.162 | -1.014 | 0.000 | 0.852 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Juan Rivera | -0.726 | -0.681 | 0.000 | -0.045 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Torii Hunter | -2.109 | -1.049 | 0.000 | -1.060 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Bobby Abreu | -1.545 | -0.149 | 0.000 | -1.396 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Hideki Matsui | -1.019 | -1.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Trevor Bell | 0.809 | 0.000 | 0.809 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.44 | 5 |
| ANA | Francisco Rodriguez | 0.375 | 0.000 | 0.375 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.36 | 3 |
| ANA | Scot Shields | -1.016 | 0.000 | -1.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 12.97 | 3 |
| ANA | ANA Luckbox | 2.970 | 1.863 | 0.000 | 1.107 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Scoiscia | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Angels Stadium | 0.941 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.941 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (3.278 NRuns: 1.584 hitting, 0.966 fielding, 0.728 running)
Cooling Off: Mike Sweeney (-1.388 hitting NRuns)
Chone Figgins' baserunning gaffe: -1.107 NRuns
Chone Figgins otherwise: 2.626 NRuns
Franklin Gutierrez scoring from 1st on a single: 0.728 NRuns
Anaheim's Luckbox: 2.970 NRuns
Goat: Torii Hunter (-2.109 NRuns: -1.049 hitting, -1.060 fielding)
******
Two interesting plays:
1) Franklin Gutierrez scored from 1st base on a single by Milton Bradley. This is exceptionally rare, to the point where 1940's Cardinals slugger Enos Slaughter is famous for having done it. Even the fastest runners, even on a hit and run, don't get past 3rd from 1st on a single. Franklin's feat is even more incredible given he's not known for his speed, though granted he is somewhat fast.
2) Chone Figgins killed the mood on Franklin's bases loaded RBI single in the 9th by getting caught between 2nd and 3rd base, forcing Ichiro to run home to try and bail him out (to no avail: Ichiro was tagged out on Chone's behalf as everyone moved up). Ichiro's futile run did have the benefit of allowing Franklin to take 2nd base, which while not significant made the move a positive play on Ichiro's part.
Aside from that, Mike Sweeney plummeted to Earth with an 0 for 5 game, Cliff Lee had 10 strikeouts over 8 in what was a solid performance and the Mariners won a game with a big day at the plate for a change.
Postscript:
Here's some more info on players who have scored from 1st on a single (BTW, the initial poster in the thread is incorrect: Slaughter did in fact score on a single). Willie Mays, go figure, had a prolific history of scoring from 1st base on singles through the 1950's and 1960's. And the thread has an amazing story of how Ty Cobb used psychology to score from 1st on a teammate's routine groundout.
Cobb was on 1st. Hal Chase is covering 1st for the Highlanders. Batter hits routine grounder to SS. Cobb, having taken a nice lead, got a good jump and was off with the pitch. SS fields the ball cleanly and throws to 1st for the out.
Chase gets the ball and Cobb is around 12 feet off of 2nd on the 3B side. Seeing Chase with the ball, arm cocked & poised to throw, Cobb freezes stock still. Arms out like a tightrope walker, bent low to the ground. Chase fears throwing to 2B, fearing Cobb will bolt towards 3rd.
Cobb, with narrowed eyes slit, like a big panther, forces the action. Using his head like a Cobra, he feints his head back towards 2B, as if to dive back, to draw the throw. Chase instantly slings an underhand bullet to 2B to nail his man. But the instant Chase' arm is committed to his throw, Cobb, who had only moved his head, bolts toward 3B like a big cat, with Chase's curses ringing in his ears like music.
The 2nd baseman who takes the throw is slightly off-balance and out of position to make his throw to 3rd. He snags the throw, adjusts to throw to 3rd but finding Cobb in his line of fire, must take that deadly step towards the pitcher's mound, to throw clear of Cobb's body, and fires a bullet to 3B. The 3rd baseman is expecting Cobb to come in low, hook-sliding to his (Cobb's) right, away from him. He takes a perfect throw, and sweeps his gloved hand backwards, expecting to nail Cobb as he slides back to third.
But Cobb had anticipated the mind of the 3rd basemen. He never slid. He leaned way in towards the pitching mound, as if to hook, but violently pivoting on the bag, and never broke stride. While the 3rd basemen was swiping behind him, Cobb was half way home. The 3rd basemen instantly adjusted and prepared to fire home. But once again, Cobb, by watching the catcher's eyes, sees what side the throw is coming from, and keeps in between the throw and the catcher.
So once again, the 3rd baseman, must take that deadly little step to the side, in order to throw around Cobb.
He should have gotten him too, but Cobb watched the catcher's eyes, and positioned himself between the incoming throw and the catcher. The throw came in online, but Cobb, by watching the catcher's eyes, contorted his slide into the path of the throw, so it bounced harmlessly off of his back.
He scored against flawless play by knowing their habits. Genius, just genius.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-9-2010 (Seattle 8, Anaheim 1)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | Ervin Santana | -2.978 | 0.000 | -2.978 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.94 | 20 |
| ANA | Mike Napoli | -0.266 | -0.711 | 0.000 | 0.308 | 0.137 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Kendry Morales | -0.593 | -0.521 | 0.000 | 0.145 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Howie Kendrick | -0.033 | -1.219 | 0.000 | 1.186 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Brandon Wood | -0.507 | -0.507 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Erick Aybar | -0.758 | -0.758 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Juan Rivera | 2.261 | 0.052 | 0.000 | 2.209 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Reggie Willits | 2.509 | 0.096 | 0.000 | 2.413 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Bobby Abreu | -1.210 | -0.407 | 0.000 | -0.803 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Robb Quinlan | -0.866 | -0.866 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Michael Ryan | -0.324 | -0.324 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Brian Stokes | -1.805 | 0.000 | -1.805 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 15.51 | 4 |
| ANA | ANA Luckbox | 1.908 | 1.908 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Scoiscia | -0.208 | -0.208 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Jason Vargas | -1.269 | 0.000 | -1.269 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.66 | 22 |
| SEA | Adam Moore | 0.495 | 0.495 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ryan Langerhans | 0.056 | -0.081 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.137 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -1.137 | -1.026 | 0.000 | -0.111 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -1.776 | -0.308 | 0.000 | -0.358 | -1.110 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 4.074 | 4.460 | 0.000 | 0.432 | -0.818 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | 2.795 | 1.664 | 0.000 | 1.131 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 1.999 | 1.794 | 0.000 | 1.178 | -0.973 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 2.434 | -0.176 | 0.000 | 2.237 | 0.373 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ken Griffey Jr | -0.855 | -0.855 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Brandon League | -0.138 | 0.000 | -0.138 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.94 | 2 |
| SEA | Shawn Kelley | 0.235 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.25 | 3 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.592 | 0.384 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 4.635 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -4.635 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Josh Wilson (4.074 NRuns: 4.460 hitting, 0.432 fielding, -0.818 running)
Josh Wilson, Michael Saunders and Franklin Gutierrez: 7.918 batting NRuns
Mariners with negative batting NRuns: 5
Mariners outfield: 4.546 fielding NRuns
Mariners baserunning: -2.391 NRuns
Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits: 4.770 NRuns
Rest of Anaheim Angels: -9.340 NRuns
Anaheim Luckbox: 1.908 NRuns
Goat: Ervin Santana (-2.978 pitching NRuns)
******
FINALLY, we see production against a non-crappy pitcher and the Mariners score a huge slump-busting 8-1 win, hours after hitting coach Alan Cockrell was deposed and replaced with AAA hitting coach Alonzo Powell. While Wilson and Saunders did show progress in Tacoma working with Powell, it'd be premature and rash to credit the offensive outburst to Powell. Most of the lineup still came up empty, especially the still-slumping Chone Figgins, who turned in the weakest hitting performance for the M's today (-1.026 batting NRuns).
Jason Vargas got a LOT of help from the outfield in another narrowly passable performance (5.66 EXERA). Like Doug Fister, he is not nearly as good as his numbers indicate, but Vargas need only throw strikes face his ~27 batters and get the team deep enough into the game to minimize the load on the bullpen.
Aside from most of the bats still not producing, one overlooked weakness that remains after today's win is bad baserunning. Mild rumors passed by me that 3B coach Mike Brumley appears to be making some poor decisions with runners approaching the hot corner that may or may not have cost the M's a few runs. Twice today runners got thrown out at home, and Josh Wilson's triple off the wall got wiped out by inattention on a pickoff by an otherwise abused Mike Napoli (4 SB allowed today), though much of the alleged criticism is with Brumley holding runners on base hits when they could easily score. I'm not sure how much to make of that, but baserunning decisions that involve passing through Brumley's signals should be watched a bit more closely as the season progresses.
Overall, this is a great win that the M's really needed, but more needs to be seen out of key bats in the lineup, and the baserunning continues to remain an issue to watch, as the M's head into a day off and a road trip.
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-8-2010 (Anaheim 4, Seattle 3, 10 innings)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | Joe Saunders | -2.031 | 0.000 | -2.283 | 0.252 | 0.000 | 7.57 | 17 |
| ANA | Mike Napoli | -0.790 | -0.576 | 0.000 | -0.214 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Kendry Morales | 0.332 | 0.112 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Howie Kendrick | -0.105 | -1.028 | 0.000 | 0.923 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Kevin Frandsen | 0.703 | -0.099 | 0.000 | 0.802 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Erick Aybar | 0.047 | -0.479 | 0.000 | 0.419 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Juan Rivera | -1.400 | -0.165 | 0.000 | -1.018 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Torii Hunter | 1.681 | 0.713 | 0.000 | 0.968 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Bobby Abreu | 0.015 | -0.256 | 0.000 | 0.112 | 0.159 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Hideki Matsui | 0.760 | 0.760 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Reggie Willits | -0.652 | -0.518 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.134 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Michael Ryan | 0.521 | 0.521 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Ryan Budde | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Jason Bulger | 1.089 | 0.000 | 1.089 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.60 | 4 |
| ANA | Kevin Jepsen | 0.824 | 0.000 | 0.824 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.66 | 3 |
| ANA | Fernando Rodney | -0.657 | 0.000 | -0.657 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 9.69 | 3 |
| ANA | Brian Fuentes | 0.360 | 0.000 | 0.360 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.21 | 3 |
| ANA | Brandon Wood | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | ANA Luckbox | 0.556 | 0.303 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Scoiscia | -0.253 | -0.253 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Doug Fister | -2.027 | 0.000 | -2.172 | 0.145 | 0.000 | 6.80 | 21 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | -0.998 | -0.998 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | -0.974 | -0.762 | 0.000 | -0.212 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -0.535 | -0.719 | 0.000 | 0.835 | -0.651 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | 0.113 | -0.272 | 0.000 | 0.602 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | -0.257 | -0.373 | 0.000 | 0.009 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ryan Langerhans | 0.707 | -0.028 | 0.000 | 0.735 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 2.108 | -0.064 | 0.000 | 2.065 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 2.597 | 2.066 | 0.000 | 0.531 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | -0.534 | -0.534 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Brandon League | 0.214 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.43 | 3 |
| SEA | David Aardsma | -1.170 | 0.000 | -1.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 11.53 | 4 |
| SEA | Shawn Kelley | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.16 | 2 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.794 | 0.541 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | -0.556 | -0.253 | 0.000 | -0.303 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 0.486 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.486 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Ichiro (2.597 NRuns: 2.066 hitting, 0.531 fielding)
Pretty close: Franklin Gutierrez (2.108 NRuns: -0.028 hitting, 2.065 fielding, 0.107 running)
Angels Player of the Game: Torii Hunter (1.681 NRuns: 0.713 hitting, 0.968 fielding, many birthdays ruined)
Jason Bulger and Kevin Jepsen: 1.903 NRuns pitching
Fernando Rodney: -0.657 pitching NRuns
Goat: Starting Pitching
Joe Saunders (-2.031 NRuns: -2.283 pitching, 0.252 fielding)
Doug Fister (-2.027 NRuns: -2.172 pitching, 0.145 fielding)
Number of Mariners with more than -1.000 hitting NRuns: 0
Number of Mariners with positive hitting NRuns: 1 (Ichiro)
Mariners defense: 4.710 NRuns
David Aardsma: -1.170 NRuns
******
Unlike several of the other Mariners' losses in this 8 game skid, this one at least had some interesting details.
- This was easily Doug Fister's worst start of the season by EXERA, and still he only allowed three runs. I'd be hard pressed to find a pitcher whose defense has helped him more than Doug Fister's.
- If the Mariners were going to bust out again anyone in the foreseeable future, it was going to be the painfully hittable lefthander Joe Saunders... and yet the M's could only manage three runs off a couple of rallies. The average team would have scored five runs off of Saunders' 5.2 fitful innings today. Did his defense have his back? Well, somewhat... the infield had most of the positive defensive value for the Angels today (2.364 NRuns). Groundouts and double plays saved Saunders from trouble time and again.
- The two Angels relievers with negative EXERAs earned those by coming in with men on base and striking guys out to escape the jam. A negative EXERA means the reliever's performance not only was worth a 0.00 ERA, but saved the potential runs that the preceding pitcher left on base.
- The potential meltdown of David Aardsma's role as closer may not be a matter of if, but when: Even when he gets the job done he gives up enough line drives and walks to indicate his days may be numbered as Seattle's closer. However, if/when that happens the Mariners won't need to go far to find a suitable replacement: Brandon League has run solid EXERAs most of his times out thanks to a healthy diet of groundballs and strikeouts and a lack of liners. Hitters pose a consistently weak threat to score with League on the hill.
- No one hitter kept sinking the Mariners' critical rallies. Rob Johnson did come up empty with two outs twice, but the team's chances of scoring on that 2nd and final K were slim. His -0.998 hitting NRuns were the low mark at the plate. Most of the roster (save for Ichiro's terrific day at the plate) contributed negatively but, while several hitters meekly killed a few key rallies, none of the hitters were a complete black hole for the team. The Mariners scored three runs, but they still didn't hit well. However, their hitting wasn't as bad as the playing-dead outings of the last few days.
But one more however: This "improvement" came against Joe Saunders, arguably one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB (if not for a depleted Angels farm system he'd have been replaced). If three runs and a bunch of dead rallies are all they have to show against Saunders, it still doesn't bode well for their chances in coming games. They need to score 3-4 runs against better pitchers for the death-slump to be officially over.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-7-2010 (Anaheim 8, Seattle 0)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | Jered Weaver | 1.300 | 0.000 | 1.155 | 0.145 | 0.000 | 2.90 | 22 |
| ANA | Ryan Budde | 0.457 | 0.564 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Kendry Morales | 1.267 | 1.210 | 0.000 | 0.057 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Howie Kendrick | 1.083 | 0.566 | 0.000 | 0.517 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Brandon Wood | -0.510 | -0.883 | 0.000 | 0.373 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Erick Aybar | 0.882 | 0.465 | 0.000 | 0.417 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Juan Rivera | 1.525 | 1.379 | 0.000 | 0.146 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Torii Hunter | 0.994 | 0.708 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Bobby Abreu | -0.006 | -0.314 | 0.000 | 0.308 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Hideki Matsui | -0.560 | -0.560 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Reggie Willits | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Michael Ryan | -0.098 | -0.098 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Scot Shields | 1.248 | 0.000 | 1.248 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.03 | 5 |
| ANA | ANA Luckbox | 0.418 | 0.418 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| ANA | Mike Scoiscia | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Felix Hernandez | -2.557 | 0.000 | -2.557 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 10.61 | 10 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | -0.866 | -0.866 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | -0.624 | -0.960 | 0.000 | 0.336 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -0.374 | -0.778 | 0.000 | 0.297 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -0.431 | -0.555 | 0.000 | 0.124 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 0.029 | 0.221 | 0.000 | -0.192 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | -0.272 | 0.891 | 0.000 | -1.163 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 1.593 | -0.326 | 0.000 | 1.919 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | -1.489 | -1.390 | 0.000 | -0.099 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ken Griffey Jr | -0.889 | -0.672 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jesus Colome | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.06 | 8 |
| SEA | Brandon League | 0.381 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.145 | 0.000 | 2.24 | 3 |
| SEA | Kanekoa Texeira | 0.422 | 0.000 | 0.422 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.45 | 6 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 2.973 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.973 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (1.593 NRuns: -0.326 hitting, 1.919 fielding)
Angels with more than 1.000 NRuns: 5
Angels with negative NRuns: 4
Mariners with positive NRuns: 5
Non-pitchers with positive NRuns: 2
Mariners batting NRuns: -4.435
Goat: Felix Hernandez (-2.557 pitching)
******
The best that can be said for today is that Michael Saunders looked much better at the plate today than he did last year, the defense was solid (1.367 NRuns) and the bullpen (0.708 pitching NRuns) did a fine job in relief. But after that... the only other positive offensive contribution came from Josh Wilson. And most of his positive NRuns came on a walk.
I don't know what was wrong with Felix, but he assured the M's of yet another loss fairly quickly. Meanwhile, we wait for the other shoe to drop, whether that shoe is regression to the mean or personnel changes. This team remains unwatchable.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
John Lackey's big return quickly leads to a big exit
John Lackey's return to the Anaheim Angels after rehabbing an injury lasted two pitches last night.
No, the Angels ace didn't get hurt. He got tossed. Lackey threw inside and plunked Ian Kinsler, and home plate umpire Bob Davidson decided Lackey was headhunting and tossed him. No warnings were issued.
Personally, while I think the ejection was unjustified (Lackey was amped up and I'm sure he had yet to rein himself in) and that Davidson was focused purely on precedent rather than the actual present, it's the division rival Angels and the end result was a 5-3 Angels loss at the hands of replacement Shane Loux, so can't say I'm too perturbed.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
An updated look at the AL West
Texas - Derek Holland and Luis Mendoza upgrade the bullpen a little, while Scott Feldman is a functional upgrade over the terrible Kris Benson. But this is still the worst pitching staff in the majors. However, the pitching upgrades add a few wins to their projected finish: They're still on track for 90-95 losses.
Seattle - Losing Kenji Johjima to injury wasn't a big downgrade since Johjima as a hitter came close to replacement level anyway. Rob Johnson could even be a hitting upgrade at catcher. Ryan Rowland-Smith may take his time coming back from a bum elbow, which allows Chris Jakubauskas, arguably a superior option as the #5 starter, to ring up more starts before returning to the pen. Seattle still has this division right where they want it, and remain on track for about 85 wins.
Oakland - Adding the replacement level Dan Giese may not prove a productive move, nor may going with eleven pitchers to get Jack Hannahan on the team. Hannahan improves the offense a tad, but dumping lefthander Jerry Blevins doesn't improve the pitching staff. It appears Oakland will ride their six relievers until the need arises to add a 7th, which is generally a sound idea, but Giese was a definite downgrade. Oakland remains on pace for 85-90 losses.
Anaheim - The likely imminent return of Ervin Santana and John Lackey is a huge boost for the Angels, but this is still a sub .500 team with a ton of holes in the bullpen and not enough power in the lineup. The likely chance of getting 200-220 replacement level innings over this season still sinks the Angels, a 75-80 win team.
Seattle - Losing Kenji Johjima to injury wasn't a big downgrade since Johjima as a hitter came close to replacement level anyway. Rob Johnson could even be a hitting upgrade at catcher. Ryan Rowland-Smith may take his time coming back from a bum elbow, which allows Chris Jakubauskas, arguably a superior option as the #5 starter, to ring up more starts before returning to the pen. Seattle still has this division right where they want it, and remain on track for about 85 wins.
Oakland - Adding the replacement level Dan Giese may not prove a productive move, nor may going with eleven pitchers to get Jack Hannahan on the team. Hannahan improves the offense a tad, but dumping lefthander Jerry Blevins doesn't improve the pitching staff. It appears Oakland will ride their six relievers until the need arises to add a 7th, which is generally a sound idea, but Giese was a definite downgrade. Oakland remains on pace for 85-90 losses.
Anaheim - The likely imminent return of Ervin Santana and John Lackey is a huge boost for the Angels, but this is still a sub .500 team with a ton of holes in the bullpen and not enough power in the lineup. The likely chance of getting 200-220 replacement level innings over this season still sinks the Angels, a 75-80 win team.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
The Los Angeles Injuries of Anaheim
The tragic death of Nick Adenhart underscored a depth problem with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim roster that could hurt their competitive chances in the long run. The Angels allowed their talent pool to get a little thin, exposed by a list of injuries that continues to grow.
Below, as of April 25, is the current disabled list for the Angels:
| Kevin Jepsen | RP | Apr 19 | 15-day | Lower back spasms |
| Darren Oliver | RP | Apr 19 | 15-day | Strained left triceps |
| Dustin Moseley | SP | Apr 18 | 15-day | Right elbow irritation |
| Vladimir Guerrero | RF | Apr 16 | 15-day | Torn right pectoral muscle - out 4-6 wks |
| Kelvim Escobar | SP | Apr 4 | 60-day | Recovery from right shoulder surgery |
| Ervin Santana | SP | Mar 27 | 15-day | Sprained MCL, right elbow |
| John Lackey | SP | Mar 27 | 15-day | Right elbow inflammation |
Losing Vlad Guerrero's big bat is a loss, but the story here is that all the other names are pitchers. Lackey, Santana and Escobar are three of the Angels' top starting arms, all of which began the 2009 season on the DL. Moseley was a rotation replacement who hit the DL last Saturday. Darren Oliver was the Angels' top lefthanded reliever. Jepsen started the season as borderline bullpen filler, but had become by default one of their top relievers when he hit the DL.
Who's left? The rotation was left with Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders and... uh.... When he got hurt, Moseley had already climbed to #3 on the depth chart due to the injuries. Now #3 belongs to AAAA tomato can Shane Loux, a functional strike thrower who probably belongs in the bullpen and is with the big club this year mainly because he was out of minor league options. As a starter, he's going to get hit around: The punchless Seattle Mariners chased him early in last night's 9-3 loss. The #4 starter is 30 year old career minor leaguer Matt Palmer, who had allowed 10 runs in 7.2 innings at AAA Salt Lake before "earning" the recent callup. The #5 starter is raw 23 year old Anthony Ortega, who himself allowed 16 runs in 13.2 innings at AAA Salt Lake before his callup.
The bottom two names indicate that, with all the injury callups, even the AAA club is tapped. Neither Palmer nor Ortega have any business in the bigs: They even struggled against AAA hitters. But that's how many holes the Angels bullpen has right now with the injuries: They're forced to call up AAA garbage because that's all they have left.
The bullpen's hurting too. The team already struggled out of the gate to replace K-Rod, and Brian Fuentes hasn't impressed. They started the season with the dubious Kevin Jepsen and Jason Bulger in the back of the pen and untested Jose Arredondo expected to eat high leverage innings. Now Bulger's forced into a key role, and the bullpen also has some weak callups filling in blanks. 28 year old lefthanded sidearmer Daniel Davidson (pictured above) had all of 11 career appearances at the AAA level before joining the big club, as did unimpressive righthander Rafael Rodriguez. Rich Thompson at least has 32 appearances over 4 seasons, though he hasn't looked good in AAA since 2007. None of those three have any business in MLB, but here they are expected to get outs in a major league bullpen.
The Angels, once lauded for their organization depth that left AAA Salt Lake stockpiled with MLB-ready ballplayers, have let that slide in the past year or two as they decided to spend big money on key components (Bobby Abreu and Brian Fuentes) while leaning on developing young players (Howie Kendrick, Kendry Morales, Erick Aybar). And now they're paying the price, as a rash of injuries led them to raid a cupboard that's now bare.
Meanwhile, their perennial division title hopes are in deep trouble. Never mind their current 6-10 record. The Seattle Mariners, once perennial also-rans, added players that vastly improve their defense (Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez), added depth to their farm system in case of injury (Mike Carp, Jason Vargas, Prentice Redman, Callix Crabbe), and have prospects not far from contributing in MLB (Jeff Clement, Greg Halman, Michael Saunders). Jose Lopez has emerged as a power bat, Felix Hernandez has become the ace the team hoped he would become, and they're winning games with disciplined play instead of giving them away with mistakes like they did before.
And now it's the Angels who are giving games away, as the lack of experience and talent in their replacement level roster has cost them the solid discipline hat buoyed their perennial title runs when the big bats and power pitching wasn't there for them. Their .669 defensive efficiency is 2nd worst in the AL, as is their 12 errors. Their .714 OPS is 11th out of 14 AL teams. Their starting pitching has only topped 100 pitches 3 times this season, 3rd fewest in the majors, as their starters are getting clobbered out of games.
After winning four of the last five AL West titles (and finishing 2nd to Oakland in that off year), the Angels may not have the Disney magic to overcome the loss of all this talent. Even with Lackey's likely return in May, and prospects of Vlad returning in the foreseeable future, the Angels have far too many holes, many of them self-created by poor talent accumulation. This may be the year those upstart Mariners overtake them for the AL West championship.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
An educated guess about the AL West for 2009
AL West
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers
The AL West is a battle of who wants to lose the least, with two weak .500-ish teams, one bad team, and one not so bad team.
Yes, I predicted the Seattle Mariners would win this division despite projecting them for the worst offense in the AL. No, I’m not making that pick as a Mariners fan and a homer. Their defense should be (despite Yuniesky Betancourt) the best in the AL. Add in an average pitching staff led by Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard, and they can easily steal this division with about 85-90 wins. They will play a lot of low scoring games, they have incorporated that annoying brand of smallball sacrifice and singles baseball that the Angels used to win the last few division titles, and the power arms at the front of their bullpen should lock down most games once they get a lead.
But the real reason they’ll win is because the Angels lost a good deal of talent and did too little to replace it. They don’t play that aforementioned smallball as well as they used to. Even if John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar weren’t injured, the Angels had lost closer Francisco Rodriguez and LF Garret Anderson, replacing them with… Bobby Abreu. Sure, Abreu is a great bat, but his defense is pretty bad in LF and he’s a definite defensive downgrade over the defensively average Anderson. This subtraction by addition helps turn a solid defense into a bad one.
The youngsters stepping up, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales, aren’t all particularly good defenders themselves, downgrading what was once a solid defensive infield. Vlad Guerrero is also getting older and he’s a slug in RF, albeit a slug with a cannon arm. The Angels struggled to reload their once great bullpen, and the injuries to Lackey and Santana (plus Nick Adenhart’s tragic death) have only exacerbated a shaky rotation situation (it was already doubtful we’d ever see Escobar again). After years of assured contention, a .500 season is a distinct possibility, even if Lackey and Santana come back on schedule and pitch well out of the gate all the way to season’s end. They could well hand the Mariners a division title by mid September.
Oakland should hang around 75 wins with a semi-productive lineup (with a lot of holes) and a cavernous home park with a flyball-killing sea breeze to help offset the crappiness of the A’s no name pitching staff. If Justin Duchscherer doesn’t return, Dana Eveland is their ace. Thankfully, while it seems they drew their bullpen’s names out of a hat, it’s a solid unit, and the defense, as always (thanks, Billy Beane) is an overall solid unit. They won’t get embarrassed, but they’re not going to compete.
If and when the Rangers’ up and coming young talent (Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, Elvis Andrus and a few others in the minors) develops and supplants the power-hitting mediocrity in front of them, they may have themselves a competitive team. Until then, they’ll have to settle for average defense, horrid pitching (they gave the withered remains of Kris Benson a job!) and a bandbox home park that makes both of those things worse, along with an offense of fading quality that can’t keep up. 90 losses, ahoy!
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers
The AL West is a battle of who wants to lose the least, with two weak .500-ish teams, one bad team, and one not so bad team.
Yes, I predicted the Seattle Mariners would win this division despite projecting them for the worst offense in the AL. No, I’m not making that pick as a Mariners fan and a homer. Their defense should be (despite Yuniesky Betancourt) the best in the AL. Add in an average pitching staff led by Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard, and they can easily steal this division with about 85-90 wins. They will play a lot of low scoring games, they have incorporated that annoying brand of smallball sacrifice and singles baseball that the Angels used to win the last few division titles, and the power arms at the front of their bullpen should lock down most games once they get a lead.
But the real reason they’ll win is because the Angels lost a good deal of talent and did too little to replace it. They don’t play that aforementioned smallball as well as they used to. Even if John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar weren’t injured, the Angels had lost closer Francisco Rodriguez and LF Garret Anderson, replacing them with… Bobby Abreu. Sure, Abreu is a great bat, but his defense is pretty bad in LF and he’s a definite defensive downgrade over the defensively average Anderson. This subtraction by addition helps turn a solid defense into a bad one.
The youngsters stepping up, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales, aren’t all particularly good defenders themselves, downgrading what was once a solid defensive infield. Vlad Guerrero is also getting older and he’s a slug in RF, albeit a slug with a cannon arm. The Angels struggled to reload their once great bullpen, and the injuries to Lackey and Santana (plus Nick Adenhart’s tragic death) have only exacerbated a shaky rotation situation (it was already doubtful we’d ever see Escobar again). After years of assured contention, a .500 season is a distinct possibility, even if Lackey and Santana come back on schedule and pitch well out of the gate all the way to season’s end. They could well hand the Mariners a division title by mid September.
Oakland should hang around 75 wins with a semi-productive lineup (with a lot of holes) and a cavernous home park with a flyball-killing sea breeze to help offset the crappiness of the A’s no name pitching staff. If Justin Duchscherer doesn’t return, Dana Eveland is their ace. Thankfully, while it seems they drew their bullpen’s names out of a hat, it’s a solid unit, and the defense, as always (thanks, Billy Beane) is an overall solid unit. They won’t get embarrassed, but they’re not going to compete.
If and when the Rangers’ up and coming young talent (Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, Elvis Andrus and a few others in the minors) develops and supplants the power-hitting mediocrity in front of them, they may have themselves a competitive team. Until then, they’ll have to settle for average defense, horrid pitching (they gave the withered remains of Kris Benson a job!) and a bandbox home park that makes both of those things worse, along with an offense of fading quality that can’t keep up. 90 losses, ahoy!
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