Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Jose Bautista's Gambit: The Game Theory behind the failed takeout slide
Over two weeks after Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista became one of the first victims of MLB's new takeout slide rule, I can't get over the fact that Joey Bats actually made what was a smart decision.
The slide itself seemed borderline. This wasn't the traditional spikes-up M.Bison from Street Fighter Slide Kick Into the 2nd Baseman takeout slide that Chase Utley used to injure Ruben Tejada in the 2015 playoffs. Bautista's slide was in line with the bag. His hand made contact with Logan Forsythe's leg as Forsythe tried to turn the potential game ending double play. The booth umpire decided that Bautista had reached for Forsythe's leg on the slide, and called the batter out due to runner interference. Game over, Rays win.
Bautista's no dummy. He knows as well as anyone that interference with the middle infielder on slides into 2nd is now illegal. And I don't believe for a second that his outstretched left hand was circumstantial. Every player knows to keep his upper body compact to maximize speed when sliding into a base. The only reason Bautista happened to extend the hand on the same side as the 2nd baseman was to interfere with his throw.
While that seems rather dumb, to knowingly interfere when it's not legal... Bautista's play was a great game theory move, and the best play for his situation.
------------
See, if Bautista slides normally, Forsythe, a competent 2B, turns the easy double play to throw out the not so fleet footed Jays batter Edwin Encarnacion at 1B to end the game. Of course, if Bautista blatantly slides into Forsythe, it's not only obvious interference and the game is over... but he could also be suspended.
However, when Bautista slides normally into the bag and subtlely extends his hand, there is a chance that the umpires overlook his interference, with the more substantial chance that Forsythe doesn't complete his play (which is what happened: Forsythe in fact made a throwing error due to interference from the outstretched hand), tying the game (Josh Donaldson would score from 3B) and keeping the game alive with two outs in the top 9th. Having a runner on 1st with two outs, obviously, gives you a better chance of winning than the game being over.
Yes, Bautista is often cited for interference and the game is over anyway. But it took an astute challenge from Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash and a conclusive booth review for that ruling to occur. Bautista's interference was subtle, and there appeared such a substantial chance that he could get away with it that many argued (incorrectly) that Bautista hadn't intended to interfere at all! The umpires on the field in fact had not ruled he done so.
Of course, the opposing manager and the booth were a little sharper than that, and Bautista's gambit did not pay off. It also sent a message that this subtle hand-checking-like attempt at interference will get called, so it's unlikely players will attempt it in the future.
But before we knew all that, Bautista made the game theory optimal decision that it was worth a try. It wasn't clean, and he got caught, but it was a very smart move on his part... smarter than playing it clean and taking the certain defeat. There was greater expected value for him and the Jays in attempting to get away with interference, than there was in sliding normally... even with the high odds that his gambit would not succeed.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-16-2010 (Tampa Bay 2, Seattle 1)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Cliff Lee | 1.602 | 0.000 | 1.968 | -0.366 | 0.000 | 2.25 | 24 |
| SEA | Josh Bard | 0.466 | 0.871 | 0.000 | -0.405 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | 0.186 | 0.114 | 0.000 | 0.072 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -1.724 | -1.240 | 0.000 | 0.003 | -0.487 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | 0.246 | -0.450 | 0.000 | 0.696 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 0.953 | -0.243 | 0.000 | 1.196 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | 0.414 | 0.509 | 0.000 | -0.095 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 0.104 | 0.126 | 0.000 | 0.438 | -0.460 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | -2.744 | -1.365 | 0.000 | -1.379 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ken Griffey Jr | -1.126 | -1.126 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ryan Langerhans | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.107 | 0.107 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | Matt Garza | -2.265 | 0.000 | -2.495 | 0.230 | 0.000 | 7.77 | 18 |
| TBR | Dioner Navarro | -0.707 | -1.060 | 0.000 | 0.353 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Hank Blalock | -0.656 | -0.656 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Sean Rodriguez | 1.357 | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.928 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Evan Longoria | -0.229 | -0.229 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Jason Bartlett | -0.953 | -0.986 | 0.000 | 0.033 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carl Crawford | 3.100 | 0.563 | 0.000 | 2.400 | 0.137 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | BJ Upton | 1.644 | 0.246 | 0.000 | 1.398 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Gabe Kapler | -0.990 | -0.672 | 0.000 | -0.318 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Willy Aybar | -0.608 | -0.608 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carlos Pena | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Lance Cormier | -0.214 | 0.000 | -0.214 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.98 | 2 |
| TBR | Randy Choate | 0.464 | 0.000 | 0.319 | 0.145 | 0.000 | 0.31 | 2 |
| TBR | Dan Wheeler | 0.273 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.89 | 2 |
| TBR | Rafael Soriano | 0.592 | 0.000 | 0.592 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.63 | 3 |
| TBR | TBR Luckbox | 0.708 | 0.708 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Joe Maddon | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Tropicana Field | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Carl Crawford (3.100 NRuns: 0.563 hitting, 2.400 fielding, 0.137 running)
Rays total contributed team NRuns: 0.808 NRuns
Tampa Bay Luckbox: 0.708 NRuns
Mariners Player of the Game: Cliff Lee (1.602 NRuns: 1.968 pitching, -0.366 fielding)
Goat: Ichiro (-2.744 NRuns: -1.365 hitting, -1.379 fielding)
Ichiro, Chone Figgins and Ken Griffey Jr: -5.594 NRuns
Rest of Mariners: 3.971 NRuns
******
You can pin this loss on three veteran players. Cliff Lee pitched a great game. A young lineup did what they could to help the Mariners win. Three guys did what they could to kill rallies and absolve Matt Garza from a bad pitching performance. The Rays eventually got that 2nd run and locked this up.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-15-2010 (Tampa Bay 3, Seattle 2)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Jason Vargas | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.021 | 0.219 | 0.000 | 4.28 | 21 |
| SEA | Adam Moore | 0.080 | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.074 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Matt Tuiasosopo | -1.159 | -1.159 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -1.294 | -0.731 | 0.000 | -0.076 | -0.487 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -0.768 | -1.333 | 0.000 | 0.565 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | -0.441 | -0.445 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | 0.390 | -0.669 | 0.000 | 1.059 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | -0.197 | -0.635 | 0.000 | 0.502 | -0.064 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.668 | 0.520 | 0.000 | 0.148 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | 0.926 | 0.926 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | -0.157 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.157 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Brandon League | -0.510 | 0.000 | -0.510 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 17.07 | 1 |
| SEA | Sean White | 0.413 | 0.000 | 0.413 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.86 | 2 |
| SEA | Jesus Colome | -0.047 | 0.000 | -0.047 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ∞ | 0 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 1.655 | 1.427 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | -0.362 | 0.000 | -0.362 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | James Shields | -0.205 | 0.000 | 0.041 | -0.246 | 0.000 | 4.26 | 24 |
| TBR | Dioner Navarro | 0.143 | 0.935 | 0.000 | -0.792 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carlos Pena | 0.636 | -0.202 | 0.000 | 0.838 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Ben Zobrist | 0.635 | -0.684 | 0.000 | 1.319 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Evan Longoria | -0.133 | -0.454 | 0.000 | 0.321 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Jason Bartlett | 0.675 | -0.806 | 0.000 | 1.481 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carl Crawford | -0.131 | -0.565 | 0.000 | 0.434 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | BJ Upton | 0.888 | -0.043 | 0.000 | 0.774 | 0.157 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Gabe Kapler | -0.430 | -0.497 | 0.000 | 0.067 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Willy Aybar | 0.112 | 0.552 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.440 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Sean Rodriguez | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | John Jaso | -0.157 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.157 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Reid Brignac | 0.785 | 0.785 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Rafael Soriano | -0.483 | 0.000 | -0.483 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 8.33 | 3 |
| TBR | TBR Luckbox | 0.362 | 0.362 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Joe Maddon | -0.228 | -0.228 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Tropicana Field | 1.906 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -1.906 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Seattle Luckbox: 1.655 NRuns
Player of the Game: Mike Sweeney (0.926 hitting NRuns)
Rest of Mariners lineup: -4.446 hitting NRuns
Rays pitching: -0.442 NRuns
Rays defense: 4.039 NRuns
Rays with positive hitting NRuns: 3 (Navarro, Aybar and Brignac)
Top Rays contribution: BJ Upton (0.888 NRuns: -0.043 hitting, 0.774 fielding, 0.157 running)
Mariners defense: 2.338 NRuns
Goat: Chone Figgins (-1.294 NRuns: -0.731 hitting, -0.076 fielding, -0.487 running)
******
There's a lot of scapegoating going on after this game towards Wak for his bullpen usage, and it's only partially right.
True, the team could have hit better. But they also faced Rays ace James Shields, who wasn't spectacular but did his job despite a few mistakes. His defense definitely did a fine job of picking him up, and the M's got unlucky on a few line drives. One notable case of bad luck is Tui's 8th inning ending liner right to 1B Carlos Peña. Ten feet to the right and it's a harmless strike one foul. Ten feet to the left and it's down for a base hit, scoring Franklin Gutierrez and the M's take a 3-2 lead in time to send David Aardsma out for another save.
Instead, the inning ending and, with his bullpen exhausted, Wak was compelled to send out erratic fireballer Jesus Colome to try and preserve a 2-2 tie in the bottom 9th. It didn't help that a) Colome is not very good and relies on blowing his heater past people, b) said heater was missing a tick or two and c) a first pitch strike above the knees was called a ball. Despite that, Colome managed to battle back and get Aybar in trouble at 2-2. But Aybar stayed with it, fouling off pitches until he got a ball in the dirt for 3-2, leading Colome to throw the fatal fastball right down the pike. Ballgame.
However, the reason they got to 2-2 in the top 9th in the first place was because they managed to blow a 2-0 lead in the bottom 8th. Wak pulled Jason Vargas after 90 pitches and back to back groundball singles, neither of which were his fault. Vargas had faced 26 batters and, even if you're concerned about familiarity and letting a tiring starter face a lineup for a 4th time, Vargas could have still faced Gabe Kapler. At 90 pitches he wasn't exactly hitting his limit. The pitch counts of his last four starts, most recent first: 97, 108, 95 and 105. He pitched into the 8th inning of his last outing vs the Angels on May 9. He faced no fewer than 27 batters in each of those last four starts, facing part of the lineup a 4th time in two of them.
Vargas gave no indication he was tired: His fastball was still sitting around 86 just as it did in the 1st inning, and he was still hitting the outside lower corner of the zone with consistency. He could have at least faced Kapler (who has a .754 OPS and hasn't exactly destroyed LHPs... in fact he was 0 for 2 coming into the frame). If anything, Vargas could have finished the 8th: Rays leadoff man Jason Bartlett was struggling and Carl Crawford came into today with an ordinary .730 OPS vs lefthanded pitching, plus he was 0 for 3 today. There was just, in terms of Vargas' fatigue and performance, no reason to pull him. Wak's decision had to be results based, and based out of an unfounded fear that Vargas was destined to give up the tying and go-ahead runs.
At that point, with runners on the corners and no outs, you're resigned to allowing at least one run, but Vargas certainly had enough in the tank to get another grounder or two, probably get a double play and get out of there with a 2-1 lead. Even a deep flyout's only going to cost you that same run. Vargas could have easily gotten out of a jam that wasn't at all his fault, and the M's could have sent Aardsma out to finish up in the 9th.
Instead, Wak took the ball and went to a tired Brandon League, who to his credit still had his 95-96 mph gas but didn't have the location that Vargas' had, and once he finally got his sinker to sink, Brignac timed it well enough to line it into center for an RBI single with still no outs. Joe Maddon made the stupid decision to have Jason Bartlett bunt the runners over for one out, and after League intentionally passed Carl Crawford, Sean White gave up a sac fly that tied the game. Two relievers burned, one of which is badly overworked already, and the game is tied anyway.
Of all his second-guess-worthy decisions, this has to be one of Wak's poorest decisions of the season. With a worn down bullpen, he elected to pull a productive starting pitcher while he still had gas in the tank because of two hits that weren't really his fault. That set the table for the bullpen to blow the game. Lament the bullpen all you want, but Wak blew the game when he pulled Jason Vargas about 2-3 batters too early. He did so out of fear that Vargas would give up the game, when ironically his decision to go the pen ended up giving up the game.
As for Colome... eh. It was a flyball. Aybar just got enough of the ball to clear the fence. That he was in there to begin with, again, was a product of the previous bad decision-making. Sean White's flyball and pop up weren't bad either, but he's long since shed the groundballing repertoire Wak still thinks he allegedly has. He's been mostly line drives and flyballs lately: Sean White's 42% groundball rate after today is a tick below the league average. You're not a groundballer if your GB rate is a tick below average. And, of course, League shouldn't have even been in there in the first place. The guy should have had the day off.
******
Wak also made one other bad decision before the game that might have made a difference as well: Benching Casey Kotchman for Matt Tuiasosopo at 1B. Yes, Casey appears to be struggling, but it's all bad luck. He's only struck out 11.7% of the time. He actually has a 25% line drive rate, but the batting average on those line drives? .391
The league average on line drives: Around .730
And unlike flyballs, line drive averages have very little variance between players. No matter if you're Albert Pujols or Reggie Willits, every player has anywhere from a .680 to .750 batting average on their line drives. That's their benefit: They usually drop for hits too quickly for the defense to react. That Casey's have been caught twice as often is just bad luck. He's not doing anything wrong, and he doesn't need a mental health day. If he keeps going out and stinging the ball, they're going to start falling and his average is going to go up.
So what if Kotchman was facing James Shields? He had a much better chance of hitting James Shields than Tui did. Tui is below serviceable as a backup, and can barely hit anyone. He came into today with 11 strikeouts, only 4 fewer than Kotchman despite 102 fewer plate appearances. If Wak wanted to play someone other than Kotch at 1B, then why not Ryan Langerhans? Langerhans had the platoon advantage as a lefty, can hit a little bit and has enough discipline to work the count and maybe draw a walk or two.
Had either Kotchman or Langerhans played, who knows? Maybe the M's could have scored another run or two and that hectic 8th inning surprise is likely little more than an annoyance, rather than a pressure situation that led Wak to a bad pitching change or three.
I'm not ready to call for Wak's head. But he's quickly gone from a manager I trust to one whose decisions regularly call for question.
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-14-2010 (Seattle 4, Tampa Bay 3)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Doug Fister | -1.624 | 0.000 | -1.769 | 0.145 | 0.000 | 7.26 | 15 |
| SEA | Adam Moore | 0.941 | 0.941 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | -2.213 | -1.281 | 0.000 | -0.445 | -0.487 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | 0.285 | -0.598 | 0.000 | 0.777 | 0.106 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -0.164 | 0.057 | 0.000 | -0.221 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | -0.404 | -1.151 | 0.000 | 0.747 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | -0.320 | -1.008 | 0.000 | 0.688 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 1.286 | 0.677 | 0.000 | 0.609 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 2.216 | 0.466 | 0.000 | 1.750 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | 0.987 | 0.771 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Kanekoa Texeira | 0.545 | 0.000 | 0.545 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.03 | 6 |
| SEA | Shawn Kelley | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.99 | 3 |
| SEA | David Aardsma | 0.226 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.42 | 3 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.647 | 0.647 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | Wade Davis | 0.865 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.615 | 0.000 | 3.96 | 18 |
| TBR | John Jaso | -1.221 | -0.759 | 0.000 | -0.462 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carlos Pena | -1.532 | -1.168 | 0.000 | -0.364 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Reid Brignac | 1.127 | 0.407 | 0.000 | 0.583 | 0.137 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Evan Longoria | 2.772 | 1.896 | 0.000 | 0.876 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Jason Bartlett | -0.091 | -0.370 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carl Crawford | 1.665 | 0.451 | 0.000 | 1.214 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | BJ Upton | -1.446 | -0.871 | 0.000 | -0.088 | -0.487 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Ben Zobrist | -0.961 | -0.645 | 0.000 | -0.316 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Pat Burrell | -0.830 | -0.830 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Lance Cormier | 0.248 | 0.000 | 0.466 | -0.218 | 0.000 | -1.53 | 2 |
| TBR | Dan Wheeler | 0.036 | 0.000 | 0.036 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.40 | 1 |
| TBR | Joaquin Benoit | -0.237 | 0.000 | -0.237 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.28 | 3 |
| TBR | Randy Choate | 0.554 | 0.000 | 0.554 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.63 | 2 |
| TBR | Grant Balfour | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -3.90 | 1 |
| TBR | TBR Luckbox | 0.595 | 0.595 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Joe Maddon | -0.127 | 0.000 | -0.127 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Tropicana Field | 4.430 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -4.430 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Ichiro (2.216 NRuns: 0.466 hitting, 1.750 fielding)
Adam Moore and Mike Sweeney: 1.928 offensive NRuns
Josh Wilson and Michael Saunders: -2.259 hitting NRuns
Mariners bullpen: 1.048 pitching NRuns
Mariners defense: 4.050 NRuns
Rays Player of the Game: Evan Longoria (2.772 NRuns: 1.896 hitting, 0.876 fielding)
Rays pitching: 1.397 NRuns
Goat: Casey Kotchman (-2.213 NRuns: -1.281 hitting, -0.445 fielding, -0.487 running)
******
I reference Adam Moore and Mike Sweeney as a single item because both are nominal backups but were inserted in the lineup as a challenge, and both responded with good games at the plate. Now, it doesn't cancel out all the negative performances this season, and it's going to take more than one good game in Tampa Bay to show that both men are solid contributors, but if Wak's trying to jump start his anemic offense, he can do worse than to seriously test drive Adam Moore at catcher and Mike Sweeney at DH, especially in the case of Moore given Rob Johnson's continued problems on defense.
Likewise, I coupled Michael Saunders and Josh Wilson as they were inserted into the lineup to try and spark the offense and had shown hot bats... but looked cooled off today. Wilson's flatlined as his hot start has quickly given way to a parade of outs over the last four games, the latter extreme being closer to what he gives you as a hitter.
Saunders is more likely for real, but a badly popped out bunt (one telltale sign last year that he wasn't ready was a continued tendency to try and bunt himself on) brought back painful, face-palming memories. I know the Rays had the shift on against him and maybe he was trying to take advantage of the shift. But he's not Juan Pierre (and thank heavens for that), so he should quit trying to hit like him. Just hit it over the infield, Mike, as you've been doing over these last few games.
To a lesser extent, trying to bunt the first pitch is not a good idea: Most teams are privy to when a player may try to bunt, and will pitch around you to induce a strike on a bad bunt. At least get a good count where you can expect a fastball... and if you're getting a fastball in a good count, just swing away anyway. A player as good as Saunders bunting in the first place is just a waste. That's something Josh Wilson should be doing.
Doug Fister's first three innings were solid. His last two innings were terrible. If ever there was a game that would send Doug Fister's stratospheric 2010 resume hurtling back to Earth, this was going to be it. Except that it didn't: The defense (especially Ichiro with one of his best games in the field in a 2010 season where he has struggled some) picked Fister up, and Fister showed some mettle in getting out of trouble with a big out in his 5th and final inning.
Fister ultimately only allowed a single run. His outing was still bad, but remember what I said previously about one of the three facets of the Mariners game needing to come up big to win. Today, the defense saved about four runs and change, and saved Doug Fister's outing from looking as bad as it actually was.
And then the much maligned bullpen stepped up and gave a solid 4 inning performance in relief, especially Kanekoa Texeira with what was easily his finest performance of the year, striking out the side in the 6th and pitching a solid 7th. This is where Kanekoa can help the team the most: Pitching multiple innings in middle relief and stringing together big outs with minimal assistance from the defense.
Even Shawn Kelley's inning, which featured a two run bomb from Evan Longoria, was mostly solid otherwise (Longo just saw the first pitch fastball right down the pipe coming and killed it because he's good). And David Aardsma got a bit of help with a bogus called strike two on John Jaso, but got both his strikeout victims to chase bad pitches up and away. Pumping "here it is hit it" heat at the zone with the occasional splitter and change is Aardsma's game. As long as he hits the edges of the zone he is tough to beat (whether or not the home plate ump gives him a pitch or two).
We're more than six weeks into the season and Casey Kotchman, even with a mental health day or two, still isn't getting much done at the plate aside from making killer outs with men on base. Using Langerhans at 1B wasn't a bad idea during the previous couple days, as Langerhans continues to show a demonstrated ability to draw walks whether or not he can hit (which is what's kept a poor hitting Chone Figgins from looking outright terrible).
The Mariners are still a dim 13 to 1 shot as of this morning to make the playoffs even after that win. They need a lot to go right and very, very little to go wrong for them to have a serious shot at the postseason. But wins like today indicate that matters for this team are much more encouraging than the eight game skid and the weekend series loss to Baltimore indicates... provided the right guys are on the field and Wak doesn't place too much more trust in the liabilities. The only belief system Don Wakamatsu should have at this point is in his productive players.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Net Runs Special, 5-9-2010: Dallas Braden's Perfect Game (Oakland 4, Tampa Bay 0)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | James Shields | -2.135 | 0.000 | -1.359 | -0.776 | 0.000 | 5.82 | 18 |
| TBR | Dioner Navarro | -0.468 | -0.468 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carlos Pena | -0.344 | -0.468 | 0.000 | 0.124 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Ben Zobrist | -1.427 | -0.282 | 0.000 | -1.145 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Evan Longoria | -2.088 | -0.663 | 0.000 | -1.425 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Jason Bartlett | -0.552 | -0.663 | 0.000 | 0.111 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carl Crawford | -0.155 | -0.468 | 0.000 | 0.313 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | BJ Upton | 1.558 | -0.282 | 0.000 | 1.840 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Gabe Kapler | 1.370 | -0.282 | 0.000 | 1.652 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Willy Aybar | -0.663 | -0.663 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Andy Sonnanstine | -0.038 | 0.000 | -0.038 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.25 | 3 |
| TBR | Dan Wheeler | 0.471 | 0.000 | 0.471 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 3 |
| TBR | TBR Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Joe Maddon | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | Dallas Braden | -0.568 | 0.000 | -0.568 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.46 | 27 |
| OAK | Landon Powell | 1.026 | 1.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| OAK | Daric Barton | 1.046 | 0.125 | 0.000 | 0.817 | 0.104 | 0.00 | 0 |
| OAK | Adam Rosales | -0.108 | -0.167 | 0.000 | 0.059 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| OAK | Kevin Kouzmanoff | 2.017 | 1.197 | 0.000 | 0.820 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| OAK | Cliff Pennington | -1.041 | -1.035 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| OAK | Eric Patterson | -0.082 | -1.755 | 0.000 | 1.673 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| OAK | Rajai Davis | 0.325 | -0.980 | 0.000 | 1.305 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| OAK | Ryan Sweeney | 1.129 | 0.990 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| OAK | Eric Chavez | -0.049 | -0.049 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| OAK | OAK Luckbox | 0.776 | 0.776 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| OAK | Bob Geren | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Oakland Coliseum | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
How Net Runs works
Dallas Braden: -0.568 NRuns... 4.46 EXERA
Oakland defense: 4.807 NRuns
Tampa Bay Rays: -4.471 NRuns
Rays hitters: -4.239 NRuns
******
Working in Braden's favor, aside from an impressive all-around effort by his defense, was a 20 mph wind in from RF. Nobody was taking anyone deep in this game, and any hitter would have been hard pressed to hit it over the outfielders. Only two players did hit it more than halfway between the infield dirt and the fence: Adam Rosales in the 5th and Landon Powell in the 8th. The A's outfielders did not have to move back for a single flyball or line drive in this game. Add in the A's getting some balls to drop in front of the defense, plus some help from bad Rays defense, and the A's had this game in the bag.
Hidden behind the perfecto was a great and strange play for the A's. With Cliff Pennington on 1st and two outs in the 4th, Daric Barton lined a single off pitcher James Shields. Pennington, running on contact, took 3rd base. As Pennington beat the throw from CF B.J. Upton, Barton made a wide turn for 2nd to draw 3B Evan Longoria off the bag in what initially appeared to be a rundown.
It appeared to be some bad baserunning by Barton, but was actually a smart play on his part: Nobody else backed up the bag at 3rd and Longoria could not come after Barton without leaving Pennington free to do exactly what he did as Longoria came well off the bag after Barton: Pennington took off for home, drawing a hurried throw from Longoria to the catcher Dioner Navarro.
Pennington turned back and dove for 3rd. James Shields got to the bag in time for a close play but Navarro hurried a throw wide of the bag and Shields, himself rushed, muffed the throw from Navarro as the ball tumbled past him into foul ground. Pennington got up and scored easily as Barton, who took 2nd easily once Longo threw home, scooted to 3rd on the bad throw before Shields could retrieve the ball. It was a smart play by Barton to seize the extra bag given the circumstances, as the Rays could not come after him without risking Pennington going home and scoring. Turns out Longoria couldn't resist, and the chain of events led to an even worse conclusion.
Back to Braden: He was lucky that his five line drives (two in the final frame of his perfecto) all found fielders. But he got a good share of pop outs and strikeouts, and again their flyballs didn't have much of a chance with the wind pushing them back. Nonetheless, as the A's found out at the plate, the strong wind also improves the chances of bloop hits finding the grass for base hits.
Congratulations not just to Dallas Braden but to the Oakland A's defense for making sure not a single Ray reached base.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-6-2010 (Tampa Bay 8, Seattle 0)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | Jeff Niemann | 0.031 | 0.000 | -0.114 | 0.145 | 0.000 | 4.35 | 21 |
| TBR | John Jaso | -1.153 | -1.153 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carlos Pena | 0.425 | 0.425 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Ben Zobrist | 1.800 | 0.528 | 0.000 | 1.272 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Evan Longoria | 0.605 | 0.605 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Jason Bartlett | 0.053 | -0.470 | 0.000 | 0.523 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carl Crawford | 3.406 | 2.383 | 0.000 | 1.023 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | BJ Upton | 0.355 | -0.149 | 0.000 | 1.240 | -0.736 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Gabe Kapler | 1.136 | 0.537 | 0.000 | 0.492 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Willy Aybar | 1.163 | 1.163 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Reid Brignac | -0.628 | -0.628 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Joaquin Benoit | 0.288 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.81 | 3 |
| TBR | Andy Sonnanstine | -0.324 | 0.000 | -0.324 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.92 | 3 |
| TBR | TBR Luckbox | 0.843 | 0.843 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Joe Maddon | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Ryan Rowland-Smith | -2.000 | 0.000 | -1.217 | -0.783 | 0.000 | 6.56 | 13 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | -0.560 | -1.189 | 0.000 | 0.629 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | -1.520 | -0.889 | 0.000 | -0.631 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | 0.377 | -0.219 | 0.000 | 0.489 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | 0.479 | -0.509 | 0.000 | 1.422 | -0.434 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 0.255 | -0.008 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ryan Langerhans | -0.878 | -0.030 | 0.000 | -0.848 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | -0.527 | -0.900 | 0.000 | 0.373 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.986 | -0.526 | 0.000 | 1.512 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ken Griffey Jr | 0.052 | 0.052 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ian Snell | -2.714 | 0.000 | -2.714 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 11.01 | 10 |
| SEA | Shawn Kelley | -0.117 | 0.000 | -0.117 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.95 | 4 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 1.833 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -1.833 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Carl Crawford (3.406 NRuns: 2.383 hitting, 1.023 fielding)
TBR players with NRun totals greater than 1.000: 4
Negative TBR contributors: 3
Tampa Bay luck: 0.843 NRuns
SEA players with NRun totals greater than 0.100: 4
Negative SEA contributors: 7
Positive SEA hitting contributions: 1 (Ken Griffey Jr: 0.052 NRuns)
Negative hitting contributions: 8
SEA hitting: -4.218 NRuns
SEA pitching: -4.048 NRuns
SEA fielding: 2.426 NRuns
He upgrades the defense: Ryan Langerhans (-0.878 NRuns: -0.030 hitting, -0.848 fielding)
Goat Twin Powers Unite:
Ryan Rowland-Smith (-2.000 NRuns: -1.217 pitching, -0.783 fielding)
Ian Snell (-2.714 NRuns pitching)
******
If I had to make a choice between Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell for the next turn in this rotation spot, I'd pick Garrett Olson.
If I had to make a choice between Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Sweeney for the DH spot, I'd pick Mike Carp.
If I had to make a choice between Rob Johnson and Adam Moore at starting catcher, I'd pick Guillermo Quiroz and then call Toronto and try to deal for Jose Molina.
If I had to make a choice between watching this team and listening to their games on the radio, I'd go do something else.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-5-2010 (Tampa Bay 8, Seattle 3)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | Matt Garza | 0.089 | 0.000 | 0.209 | -0.120 | 0.000 | 4.00 | 24 |
| TBR | Dioner Navarro | 0.433 | 0.296 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.137 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carlos Pena | -2.020 | -1.502 | 0.000 | -0.518 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Ben Zobrist | -0.371 | -0.901 | 0.000 | 0.312 | 0.218 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Evan Longoria | 0.570 | 0.334 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Jason Bartlett | 2.235 | 1.613 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 0.465 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carl Crawford | 1.121 | -0.063 | 0.000 | 1.184 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | BJ Upton | 1.405 | 0.496 | 0.000 | 0.909 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Gabe Kapler | 1.142 | 0.527 | 0.000 | 0.615 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Pat Burrell | -0.574 | -0.574 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Reid Brignac | 1.159 | 1.159 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Grant Balfour | -0.001 | 0.000 | -0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.22 | 3 |
| TBR | TBR Luckbox | 1.250 | 1.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Joe Maddon | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Cliff Lee | 0.195 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 4.02 | 24 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | -0.990 | -0.615 | 0.000 | -0.375 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | 0.385 | -0.082 | 0.000 | 0.467 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -0.752 | -0.960 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -1.851 | -1.155 | 0.000 | -0.696 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jack Wilson | -0.159 | 0.265 | 0.000 | -0.424 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ryan Langerhans | -1.376 | 0.238 | 0.000 | -1.614 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 1.530 | 1.679 | 0.000 | -0.149 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | -0.175 | -0.395 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ken Griffey Jr | -0.395 | -0.395 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | -0.881 | -0.766 | 0.000 | -0.115 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | -0.481 | -0.481 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Sean White | -1.482 | 0.000 | -1.482 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 41.31 | 1 |
| SEA | Kanekoa Texeira | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.33 | 2 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 1.122 | 1.122 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 1.438 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -1.438 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Jason Bartlett (2.235 NRuns: 1.613 hitting, 0.157 fielding, 0.465 running)
Rays hitting: 1.385 NRuns
Rays defense: 2.775 NRuns
Rays pitching: 0.208 NRuns
Tampa Bay's luck aka Mariners mistakes: 1.250 NRuns
Top Mariner: Franklin Gutierrez (1.530 NRuns: 1.679 hitting, -0.149 fielding)
Mariners good luck aka Rays mistakes: 1.122 NRuns
Mariners hitting: -2.667 NRuns
Mariners defense: -2.473 NRuns
Sean White: -1.482 NRuns
Goat: Jose Lopez (-1.851 NRuns: -1.155 hitting, -0.696 fielding)
******
The more the losses pile up, the less there is to say about where the Mariners are at... and yet the details seem telling as to why the losses keep mounting. Milton Bradley admitted to personal issues causing him significant stress and he is now out indefinitely. Ryan Langerhans, a typically solid defender, had a horrid game in left as key ball after key ball landed around him instead of in his glove. Sean White lost control and had a horrid game in relief, allowing what was already a likely forthcoming loss to become a rout. Jose Lopez coupled a bad day at the plate with a weak performance in the field. Griffey nearly cleared the wall with a double but still had another mediocre day at the plate. Chone Figgins had another bad day at the plate and now it's starting to look like he's got some issues to work out with the bat. And of course Jack Wilson pulled a hammy while batting in the 3rd and had to leave the game: Replacement Josh Wilson did not do much of a job in relief. The hits just keep on coming metaphorically, even if they're still not coming literally.
Cliff Lee didn't pitch five runs bad, but he was simply decent rather than great against the Rays, and nine times out of ten the M's would still need to give him more run support than they did today.
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-4-2010 (Tampa Bay 5, Seattle 2)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | James Shields | 1.676 | 0.000 | 1.676 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.47 | 24 |
| TBR | Dioner Navarro | 0.067 | 0.067 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carlos Pena | -1.679 | -1.684 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Sean Rodriguez | -0.664 | -1.032 | 0.000 | 0.368 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Evan Longoria | 0.599 | 1.148 | 0.000 | -0.549 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Reid Brignac | -0.456 | 0.399 | 0.000 | -0.855 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Carl Crawford | -0.777 | -0.764 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Ben Zobrist | -0.252 | -0.199 | 0.000 | -0.053 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Gabe Kapler | 0.630 | -0.574 | 0.000 | 1.204 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Pat Burrell | -0.365 | -0.365 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Willy Aybar | 1.027 | 1.027 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | BJ Upton | -0.315 | -0.315 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Rafael Soriano | 0.762 | 0.000 | 0.762 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.14 | 3 |
| TBR | TBR Luckbox | 2.747 | 2.747 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TBR | Joe Maddon | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
"Player" of the Game: Tampa Bay's own good luck aka Mariners screw-ups (2.747 NRuns)
Actual player of the game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.669 NRuns: 1.151 hitting, 1.518 fielding)
Three errors are bad but not as bad as you think: Jack Wilson (-1.181 NRuns: -0.304 hitting, -1.036 fielding, 0.159 running)
Goat: Milton Bradley (-1.951 NRuns: -1.358 hitting, -0.593 fielding)
******
Jack Wilson's going to get bullseyed for his three errors, but Don Wakamatsu pulled the game's real goat after said goat's strikeout ended the 6th. Milton Bradley had one of his lesser games in the field, but thrust into higher leverage plate appearances as the cleanup hitter, Bradley came up empty and was so upset with himself after his 2nd strikeout ended the 6th that he blew his top in the dugout and Wak immediately pulled him for Ryan Langerhans. Yes, Bradley at his best is one of the M's better players, but his emotions tend to get the best of him when things don't go well, and Wak made the relevant decision to get Milton out of there with his head space in the wrong place.
Even after tiring and getting hit a bit in the end, Rays ace James Shields pitched a great game, and chances weren't likely that the M's were going to score more than 2-3 runs off him. The busy 6th inning for the M's was a big product of luck, though Bradley's final strikeout and the worn-out Ken Griffey Jr's strikeout immediately killed any hope of getting more than the single run they got. So good luck in, bad fortune out, and it all balanced out in the end (unfortunately).
Meanwhile, the team still isn't hitting, film at 11. Add in some relatively poor infield defense, and the M's were doomed.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
An updated look at the AL East
Toronto - Like the Angels, the Blue Jays have a litany of pitcher injuries, leading to scores of replacement level innings that drag down their chances at .500 baseball, not that they had much of a chance in the loaded AL East to begin with. Backup catcher Michael Barrett is also on the DL for a couple weeks with a minor injury sustained while fielding a wild pitch. 75-80 wins in a sub-.500 campaign is more likely now.
Tampa Bay - Ben Zobrist and Gabe Kapler may see more time, but otherwise, this is the same 94-96 win squad that may just miss the wildcard by a game or two. They've stayed healthy.
NY Yankees - With Chien Ming Wang going down, the Yankees appeared in trouble until news broke that Alex Rodriguez would begin rehab assignments this week with a targeted return in early May. Having A-Rod for most of the season boost the Yanks in light of the loss of Wang and Xavier Nady. In fact, the drastic improvement of Nick Swisher defensively in RF over Nady more than offsets any recent personnel losses. The Rays gained some ground, but not enough to stop the Yankees from a 95-98 win campaign and the wildcard.
Boston - Losing Daisuke Matsuzaka for a spell is only a slip: at this stage it's expected he'll make one or two DL trips per year. Jonathan Van Every takes over as the backup outfielder, and there are a few strange faces in the bullpen. But otherwise, this team remains on track for 100 wins and the AL East title, as the big guns remain in place.
Baltimore - Lou Montanez is a solid addition to the bench in lieu of the injured Ryan Freel, and Brian Bergesen is the best of the Orioles' options for a blank rotation spot: He should do fine. Still, this is a 90-95 loss team.
Tampa Bay - Ben Zobrist and Gabe Kapler may see more time, but otherwise, this is the same 94-96 win squad that may just miss the wildcard by a game or two. They've stayed healthy.
NY Yankees - With Chien Ming Wang going down, the Yankees appeared in trouble until news broke that Alex Rodriguez would begin rehab assignments this week with a targeted return in early May. Having A-Rod for most of the season boost the Yanks in light of the loss of Wang and Xavier Nady. In fact, the drastic improvement of Nick Swisher defensively in RF over Nady more than offsets any recent personnel losses. The Rays gained some ground, but not enough to stop the Yankees from a 95-98 win campaign and the wildcard.
Boston - Losing Daisuke Matsuzaka for a spell is only a slip: at this stage it's expected he'll make one or two DL trips per year. Jonathan Van Every takes over as the backup outfielder, and there are a few strange faces in the bullpen. But otherwise, this team remains on track for 100 wins and the AL East title, as the big guns remain in place.
Baltimore - Lou Montanez is a solid addition to the bench in lieu of the injured Ryan Freel, and Brian Bergesen is the best of the Orioles' options for a blank rotation spot: He should do fine. Still, this is a 90-95 loss team.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
An educated guess about the AL East for 2009
AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox have the best lineup, one of the best defenses and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. This division is theirs for the taking unless something catastrophic happens.
The Rays just don’t have the firepower to outhit the Yankees and Red Sox, but they have the talent to outplay any other team in any other division.
What will eventually do in the Yankees’ division title hopes is their subpar defense: Jeter’s liability as a defensive SS is starting to enter public knowledge, A-Rod’s slipped at 3B himself (plus he’s going to miss about half the season, with the questionable Cody Ransom taking his place), and Xavier Nady’s injury actually led the Yankees to upgrade his subpar defense in RF by playing Nick Swisher. That said, they should still outlast the Rays for the Wildcard, as the Yankees have more offense and much better pitching, which can offset the defensive shortcomings.
Toronto’s patchwork pitching staff, led by a very strong Roy Halladay, should work well with a solid defense to get the Blue Jays around .500 despite a subpar offense, not bad for a 4th place team in MLB’s toughest division.
The Orioles have an average lineup and a decent defense, but their pitching situation is horrid, with a lack of depth leading them to run AAA-worthy arms out there. Expect 100 losses.
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox have the best lineup, one of the best defenses and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. This division is theirs for the taking unless something catastrophic happens.
The Rays just don’t have the firepower to outhit the Yankees and Red Sox, but they have the talent to outplay any other team in any other division.
What will eventually do in the Yankees’ division title hopes is their subpar defense: Jeter’s liability as a defensive SS is starting to enter public knowledge, A-Rod’s slipped at 3B himself (plus he’s going to miss about half the season, with the questionable Cody Ransom taking his place), and Xavier Nady’s injury actually led the Yankees to upgrade his subpar defense in RF by playing Nick Swisher. That said, they should still outlast the Rays for the Wildcard, as the Yankees have more offense and much better pitching, which can offset the defensive shortcomings.
Toronto’s patchwork pitching staff, led by a very strong Roy Halladay, should work well with a solid defense to get the Blue Jays around .500 despite a subpar offense, not bad for a 4th place team in MLB’s toughest division.
The Orioles have an average lineup and a decent defense, but their pitching situation is horrid, with a lack of depth leading them to run AAA-worthy arms out there. Expect 100 losses.
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