Showing posts with label Felix Hernandez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Felix Hernandez. Show all posts

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-19-2010 (Seattle 5, Cincinnati 1)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
CINSam LeCure -1.1400.000-1.3920.2520.0006.1518
CINRamon Hernandez -0.683-0.5760.000-0.1070.0000.000
CINJoey Votto 2.1440.6970.0001.3400.1070.000
CINBrandon Phillips -0.947-0.8830.000-0.0640.0000.000
CINScott Rolen -1.768-1.1830.000-0.368-0.2170.000
CINOrlando Cabrera -0.297-0.9090.0000.6120.0000.000
CINLaynce Nix -0.160-0.5740.0000.4140.0000.000
CINDrew Stubbs 0.8230.0690.0000.6470.1070.000
CINJay Bruce 0.370-0.4840.0000.8540.0000.000
CINJonny Gomes 0.1620.1620.0000.0000.0000.000
CINJordan Smith 0.2650.0000.2650.0000.0003.116
CINCIN Luckbox0.1390.1390.0000.0000.0000.000
CINDusty Baker-0.3580.0000.000-0.3580.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAFelix Hernandez 1.3400.0001.3350.0050.0002.9827
SEARob Johnson -1.149-1.0100.000-0.1390.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman -0.367-0.4430.0000.0760.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins 1.1770.7770.0000.2930.1070.000
SEAJose Lopez -0.468-0.4600.0000.209-0.2170.000
SEAJosh Wilson -0.737-0.2430.000-0.4940.0000.000
SEAMichael Saunders 2.4802.2100.0000.2700.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 1.9680.1970.0001.5860.1850.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 1.1870.7830.0000.4040.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley -1.284-1.2840.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.3580.3580.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Safeco Field3.0550.0000.000-3.0550.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.505


Player of the Game: Michael Saunders (2.480 NRuns: 2.210 hitting, 0.270 fielding)
Mariners over 1.000 NRuns: 5 (Hernandez, Figgins, Saunders, Gutierrez, Ichiro)

Goat: Scott Rolen (-1.768 NRuns: -1.183 hitting, -0.368 fielding, -0.217 running)

Felix Hernandez's pitching: 1.335 NRuns... 2.98 EXERA
Mariners defense: 2.210 NRuns

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-13-2010 (Seattle 4, San Diego 2)

Quick and dirty... but nice job by Felix today:

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAFelix Hernandez 1.642-0.1251.5560.2110.0001.6726
SEARob Johnson 0.5250.6220.0000.000-0.0970.000
SEAMike Carp -1.421-1.4090.000-0.0120.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins -0.356-0.0370.0000.028-0.3470.000
SEAJose Lopez -0.2380.4300.0000.085-0.7530.000
SEAJosh Wilson -0.029-0.3120.0000.2830.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley 2.0512.0410.0000.0100.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez -0.6950.1100.000-0.8050.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 0.8520.8520.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADavid Aardsma -0.1300.000-0.1300.0000.0006.421
SEACasey Kotchman 0.1940.0000.0000.1940.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.1020.1020.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu-0.497-0.4970.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SDPClayton Richard 0.006-0.2550.2610.0000.0002.8621
SDPNick Hundley -0.730-0.7300.0000.0000.0000.000
SDPAdrian Gonzalez 0.0880.4360.000-0.3480.0000.000
SDPDavid Eckstein 0.736-0.5620.0001.2980.0000.000
SDPChase Headley -0.314-0.5050.0000.1910.0000.000
SDPJerry Hairston 0.1100.0440.0000.0660.0000.000
SDPScott Hairston -1.319-0.2620.000-1.1540.0970.000
SDPTony Gwynn 2.0101.1710.0000.8390.0000.000
SDPWill Venable -0.891-0.8910.0000.0000.0000.000
SDPRyan Webb 0.3810.0000.3810.0000.000-1.602
SDPJoe Thatcher -0.7480.000-0.7480.0000.00021.891
SDPLuke Gregerson 0.1100.0000.1100.0000.0002.253
SDPOscar Salazar -0.125-0.1250.0000.0000.0000.000
SDPSDP Luckbox0.6590.1620.0000.4970.0000.000
SDPBud Black-0.1020.0000.000-0.1020.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.380


Player of the Game: Milton Bradley (2.051 NRuns: 2.041 hitting, 0.010 fielding)

Mariners defense: -0.006 NRuns
Felix Hernandez: 1.556 pitching NRuns, 1.67 EXERA

Goat? Mike Carp (-1.421 NRuns: -1.409 hitting, -0.012 fielding)

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-8-2010 (Texas 7, Seattle 1)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAFelix Hernandez-0.6210.000-0.6210.0000.0006.0518
SEARob Johnson0.0711.1690.0000.000-1.0980.000
SEAMike Carp-0.658-1.5190.0000.8610.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins-0.732-0.3460.000-0.3860.0000.000
SEAJose Lopez-0.904-0.0710.000-0.8330.0000.000
SEAJosh Wilson-0.435-1.2960.0000.8610.0000.000
SEAMichael Saunders-2.584-0.3320.000-2.3860.1340.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez1.4790.5820.0000.8660.0310.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki-0.321-1.3170.0000.9960.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley-1.280-1.2800.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAGarrett Olson0.2000.0000.2000.0000.0003.523
SEAChad Cordero-0.1120.000-0.1120.0000.0006.123
SEASEA Luckbox0.7450.7450.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
TEXColby Lewis-1.1740.000-1.2000.0260.0006.6221
TEXMax Ramirez0.404-0.5600.0000.9640.0000.000
TEXJustin Smoak2.5901.3900.0001.2000.0000.000
TEXIan Kinsler0.314-0.2430.0000.5570.0000.000
TEXMichael Young-1.210-1.2100.0000.0000.0000.000
TEXElvis Andrus1.5551.8650.000-0.3100.0000.000
TEXJosh Hamilton1.6831.6030.0000.0800.0000.000
TEXJulio Borbon1.270-1.2840.0002.5540.0000.000
TEXDavid Murphy0.5950.3150.0000.2800.0000.000
TEXVladimir Guerrero-0.008-0.0080.0000.0000.0000.000
TEXJoaquin Arias0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
TEXAndres Blanco-0.369-0.3690.0000.0000.0000.000
TEXChris Ray0.1310.0000.1310.0000.0004.103
TEXDarren O'Day0.3160.0000.3160.0000.0002.553
TEXTEX Luckbox0.5250.5250.0000.0000.0000.000
TEXRon Washington0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Rangers Ballpark1.4700.0000.000-1.4700.0000.000.622


Player of the Game: Justin Smoak (2.590 NRuns: 1.390 hitting, 1.200 fielding)
Rangers with over 1.000 NRuns: 4 (Smoak, Andrus, Hamilton, Borbon)
Rangers defense: 5.351 NRuns

Mariners defnese: -0.021 NRuns
Positive Mariners contributions: 3 (Johnson, Gutierrez, Olson)
Negative Mariners contributions: 10

Goat: Michael Saunders (-2.584 NRuns: -0.332 hitting, -2.386 fielding, 0.134 running)

******

This was a "Just in case you thought Cliff Lee's complete game gave the M's any momentum" game.

One note about this game: Felix's first five innings were TERRIFIC. Felix saved about 1.904 NRuns (2.17 EXERA) through five... and then the wheels flew right off in the 6th: A hit batter, a walk and three line drives in a three run inning for the Rangers. Saunders getting played like a piano on that two out two run double by Elvis Andrus sure didn't help, but it's like Felix just flipped a switch before the top 6th and became a tomato can. Usually the M's watch the bullpen blow games... it's not everyday that a top starter like Felix would come out and blow his own game by himself.

Whether or not it worked yesterday, hitting Milton Bradley 2nd sure didn't work today (-1.280 hitting NRuns), but then again nobody for the M's (save for Franklin Gutierrez, and Rob Johnson of all people) was hitting today. Mike Carp (-1.519), Josh Wilson (-1.296) and Ichiro (-1.317) also had notably bad days at the plate.

Friday, June 4, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-3-2010 (Seattle 4, Minnesota 1)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
MINCarl Pavano0.1020.0000.367-0.2650.0003.7821
MINJoe Mauer-1.207-0.4250.000-0.7820.0000.000
MINJustin Morneau0.2900.2900.0000.0000.0000.000
MINMatt Tolbert-0.464-0.8260.0000.3620.0000.000
MINDanny Valencia-0.469-0.2670.000-0.2020.0000.000
MINNick Punto-0.408-0.5530.0000.1450.0000.000
MINDelmon Young0.084-0.6030.0000.904-0.2170.000
MINDenard Span1.300-0.2280.0001.5280.0000.000
MINJason Kubel-0.955-0.3590.000-0.5960.0000.000
MINJim Thome-0.574-0.5740.0000.0000.0000.000
MINJesse Crain0.3550.0000.3550.0000.0001.253
MINMIN Luckbox0.4700.2170.0000.2530.0000.000
MINRon Gardenhire0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAFelix Hernandez0.2840.0000.2840.0000.0003.9224
SEARob Johnson-0.808-0.3740.000-0.217-0.2170.000
SEACasey Kotchman-0.858-0.7220.000-0.1360.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins-0.757-0.9790.0000.2220.0000.000
SEAJose Lopez1.4511.9450.000-0.4940.0000.000
SEAJosh Wilson1.0130.1460.0000.7600.1070.000
SEAMichael Saunders1.6060.7780.0001.023-0.1950.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez0.080-0.4780.0000.5580.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki2.1350.3120.0001.4070.4160.000
SEAMilton Bradley-0.505-0.5050.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADavid Aardsma0.1380.0000.1380.0000.0003.063
SEASEA Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Safeco Field2.0290.0000.000-2.0290.0000.000


Player of the Game: Ichiro (2.135 NRuns: 0.312 hitting, 1.407 fielding, 0.416 running)
Mariners with more than 1.000 NRuns: 4 (Ichiro, Saunders, Lopez, Josh Wilson)

Mariners defense: 3.123 NRuns

Goat: Joe Mauer (-1.207 NRuns: -0.425 hitting, -0.782 fielding)

******

The only reason Felix Hernandez didn't have a great Net Runs today were his 1st and 3rd innings. The one run 1st came about through two line drives, and he led off the 3rd with a walk before allowing a line drive (that thankfully was caught by Ichiro). The rest of his day was excellent, especially those four strikeouts in the 8th inning. Thanks to Rob Johnson for enabling that by failing for block a strike three curveball in the dirt.

No further comment.

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-29-2010 (Anaheim 5, Seattle 1, 10 innings)


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAFelix Hernandez -0.3180.000-0.8950.5770.0005.4224
SEARob Johnson -0.757-0.6470.000-0.1100.0000.000
SEAMatt Tuiasosopo -0.648-0.9500.0000.898-0.5960.000
SEAChone Figgins -1.487-0.7860.000-0.8110.1100.000
SEAJose Lopez -0.216-0.0910.000-0.1250.0000.000
SEAJosh Wilson -0.320-1.0840.0000.7640.0000.000
SEAMichael Saunders -0.504-0.7880.0000.2840.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 2.5000.1000.0002.2590.1410.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 1.3080.1660.0000.7860.3560.000
SEAMilton Bradley -1.732-1.7320.0000.0000.0000.000
SEABrandon League 0.4900.0000.3490.1410.0002.304
SEASEA Luckbox1.6821.4210.0000.2610.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu-0.3080.000-0.3080.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
ANAJered Weaver 1.5840.0001.4480.1360.0002.7621
ANABobby Wilson -0.660-0.0530.000-0.6070.0000.000
ANAKendry Morales 2.8042.8040.0000.0000.0000.000
ANAHowie Kendrick -1.221-0.8300.000-0.157-0.2340.000
ANAMaicer Izturis -0.512-0.5120.0000.0000.0000.000
ANAErick Aybar -1.623-1.1870.000-0.4360.0000.000
ANAMike Ryan -1.307-0.9380.000-0.3690.0000.000
ANATorii Hunter 0.1350.1350.0000.0000.0000.000
ANABobby Abreu 2.6520.7670.0001.7750.1100.000
ANAHideki Matsui -0.610-0.6100.0000.0000.0000.000
ANAFrancisco Rodriguez 1.0050.0000.5760.4290.0002.096
ANABrian Fuentes 0.5380.0000.5380.0000.0000.003
ANAReggie Willits 0.377-0.6700.0001.0470.0000.000
ANAKevin Frandsen -0.141-0.1410.0000.0000.0000.000
ANAANA Luckbox1.5281.5280.0000.0000.0000.000
ANAMike Scoiscia-0.261-0.2610.0000.0000.0000.000
 Angels Stadium3.9780.0000.000-3.9780.0000.000


Injury Player of the Game: Kendry Morales (2.804 hitting NRuns... 2.562 on the walkoff HR)

Mariners Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.500 NRuns: 0.100 hitting, 2.259 fielding, 0.141 running)

Tui's bad tag-up for 3B in the 4th: -0.596 NRuns
All other Mariners baserunning: 0.607 NRuns

Chone's fatal E-4 in the 10th: -1.220 NRuns
All other Mariners defense: 5.883 NRuns
Brandon League's contribution in that 10th inning: -0.079 NRuns
League's contribution in the 9th: 0.428 NRuns

Positive Mariners contributions: 3 (Gutierrez, Ichiro and Brandon League)
Negative Mariners contributions: 8 (9 if you include manager Don Wakamatsu)

Mariners luckbox: 1.682 NRuns
Mariners hitting: -5.812 NRuns

Goat: Milton Bradley (-1.732 hitting NRuns)

******

Despite no hitting, despite subpar pitching by Felix Hernandez... the Mariners had this game in the bag thanks to one of the Mariners defense's best efforts this season, and that's saying something with one of MLB's best defenses.

The giveaway: Felix hanging one fastball too many and Bobby Abreu dropping it on the tarp past the CF wall, and a concoction of mistakes in the bottom 10th (The Figgins error and Wak's previous decision to intentionally walk Abreu) that set up the Morales bomb.

Even despite their weak hitting against Jered Weaver, the M's had their share of chances to cash in extra runs. Tui's bad baserunning helped kill one of those chances. Milton Bradley and some untimely strikeouts with RISP helped kill two others early in the game. Felix could have easily finished his start protecting a 3-0 lead instead of 1-0.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-13-2010 (Baltimore 6, Seattle 5)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAFelix Hernandez2.2500.0001.8670.3830.0002.9221
SEARob Johnson-1.889-1.0070.000-0.8820.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman-1.040-1.0910.0000.0510.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins-1.125-0.5970.000-0.5280.0000.000
SEAJose Lopez-0.439-0.5580.0000.624-0.5050.000
SEAJosh Wilson-0.890-0.7250.0000.705-0.8700.000
SEAMichael Saunders1.6681.1480.0000.5200.0000.000
SEARyan Langerhans1.4110.0740.0001.1050.2320.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki1.5922.5190.000-0.9270.0000.000
SEAMike Sweeney0.6570.6570.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAKen Griffey Jr0.4710.4710.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAAdam Moore0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEABrandon League-0.6410.000-0.6410.0000.00010.503
SEASEA Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu-0.301-0.3010.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
BALKevin Millwood-1.8810.000-1.8810.0000.0007.5020
BALCraig Tatum0.015-0.4900.0000.5050.0000.000
BALRhyne Hughes-0.248-0.2830.0000.0350.0000.000
BALTy Wigginton2.1361.3880.0000.7480.0000.000
BALMiguel Tejada-1.479-1.4760.000-0.0030.0000.000
BALCesar Izturis1.8970.1720.0001.7250.0000.000
BALCorey Patterson2.2130.8050.0001.517-0.1090.000
BALAdam Jones-0.344-0.9980.0000.6540.0000.000
BALNick Markakis0.3150.2310.0000.0840.0000.000
BALLuke Scott2.1722.1720.0000.0000.0000.000
BALMatt Wieters-0.706-0.7060.0000.0000.0000.000
BALGarrett Atkins-0.524-0.5240.0000.0000.0000.000
BALJulio Lugo-0.4030.0000.000-0.4030.0000.000
BALMark Hendrickson0.3450.0000.3450.0000.0002.994
BALAlfredo Simon-0.0070.000-0.0070.0000.0005.213
BALBAL Luckbox1.1830.8820.0000.3010.0000.000
BALDave Trembley0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Camden Yards6.4080.0000.000-6.4080.0000.000


Player of the Game: Felix Hernandez (2.250 NRuns: 1.867 pitching, 0.383 fielding). 2.92 EXERA

Seattle Outfield (Saunders, Langerhans, Ichiro): 4.671 NRuns

Orioles Player of the Game: Corey Patterson (2.213 NRuns: 0.805 hitting, 1.517 fielding, -0.109 running)
Orioles with more than 2.000 NRuns: 3 (Patterson, Ty Wigginton, Luke Scott)
Orioles Luckbox: 1.183 NRuns

Goat: Rob Johnson (-1.889 NRuns: -1.007 hitting, -0.882 fielding)

******

Felix Hernandez had one of his best starts of the season, the offense picked him up with five runs off a bad performance from Kevin Millwood, and it all went to waste with help from Rob Johnson and Brandon League.

League, usually solid, got some bad luck early in his outing and he made it worse with two cardinal sins in the fatal 8th inning: A line drive that led to a base hit, and a walk that loaded the bases. Short of walking in a run, the worst situation to walk a guy is with two men on, as said walk loads the bases. And sure enough, the walk set up Luke Scott's backbreaking grand slam. That's why you can't allow line drives and bases loading walks, Brandon.

And Rob Johnson... Rob Johnson produced a change in the Net Runs scoring rules regarding wild pitches. Previously, wild pitches were credited to the pitcher as, while some wild pitches hit the dirt and could be stopped, there are also wild pitches that just sail past the catcher. Blaming the catcher for pitches that far off the plate seemed a bit unfair. But after two blockable balls in the dirt got past Johnson, I decided I just couldn't blame Felix for his catcher's failures. So now I have decided to credit the catcher, not the pitcher, for wild pitches from this point forward save for the occasional judgment call on a pitch well off the plate. Congratulations, Rob Johnson. You're a trendsetter. Now please ask your manager to send you to Tacoma.

Camden Yards' dimensions produced over six runs today. The Mariners, meanwhile, may have driven a stake through their season's heart by finding a way to lose this winnable game, and in turn finding a way to lose an easily winnable series against arguably the worst team in the American League this side of the Kansas City Royals or... dare I say it... the Seattle Mariners.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-7-2010 (Anaheim 8, Seattle 0)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
ANAJered Weaver1.3000.0001.1550.1450.0002.9022
ANARyan Budde0.4570.5640.000-0.1070.0000.000
ANAKendry Morales1.2671.2100.0000.0570.0000.000
ANAHowie Kendrick1.0830.5660.0000.5170.0000.000
ANABrandon Wood-0.510-0.8830.0000.3730.0000.000
ANAErick Aybar0.8820.4650.0000.4170.0000.000
ANAJuan Rivera1.5251.3790.0000.1460.0000.000
ANATorii Hunter0.9940.7080.0000.2860.0000.000
ANABobby Abreu-0.006-0.3140.0000.3080.0000.000
ANAHideki Matsui-0.560-0.5600.0000.0000.0000.000
ANAReggie Willits0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
ANAMichael Ryan-0.098-0.0980.0000.0000.0000.000
ANAScot Shields1.2480.0001.2480.0000.000-2.035
ANAANA Luckbox0.4180.4180.0000.0000.0000.000
ANAMike Scoiscia0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAFelix Hernandez-2.5570.000-2.5570.0000.00010.6110
SEARob Johnson-0.866-0.8660.0000.0000.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman-0.624-0.9600.0000.3360.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins-0.374-0.7780.0000.2970.1070.000
SEAJose Lopez-0.431-0.5550.0000.1240.0000.000
SEAJosh Wilson0.0290.2210.000-0.1920.0000.000
SEAMichael Saunders-0.2720.8910.000-1.1630.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez1.593-0.3260.0001.9190.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki-1.489-1.3900.000-0.0990.0000.000
SEAKen Griffey Jr-0.889-0.6720.0000.000-0.2170.000
SEAJesus Colome0.0500.0000.0500.0000.0004.068
SEABrandon League0.3810.0000.2360.1450.0002.243
SEAKanekoa Texeira0.4220.0000.4220.0000.0002.456
SEASEA Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Safeco Field2.9730.0000.000-2.9730.0000.000


Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (1.593 NRuns: -0.326 hitting, 1.919 fielding)

Angels with more than 1.000 NRuns: 5
Angels with negative NRuns: 4

Mariners with positive NRuns: 5
Non-pitchers with positive NRuns: 2
Mariners batting NRuns: -4.435

Goat: Felix Hernandez (-2.557 pitching)

******

The best that can be said for today is that Michael Saunders looked much better at the plate today than he did last year, the defense was solid (1.367 NRuns) and the bullpen (0.708 pitching NRuns) did a fine job in relief. But after that... the only other positive offensive contribution came from Josh Wilson. And most of his positive NRuns came on a walk.

I don't know what was wrong with Felix, but he assured the M's of yet another loss fairly quickly. Meanwhile, we wait for the other shoe to drop, whether that shoe is regression to the mean or personnel changes. This team remains unwatchable.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-21-2010 (Seattle 4, Baltimore 1)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
BALKevin Millwood -3.1070.000-3.1070.0000.000
BALMatt Wieters -0.0200.1170.000-0.1370.000
BALGarrett Atkins 1.0260.1290.0000.8970.000
BALJustin Turner -2.411-0.6570.000-1.7540.000
BALTy Wigginton -2.134-1.3550.000-0.128-0.651
BALCesar Izturis 0.2490.1040.0000.1450.000
BALLou Montanez 3.101-0.0470.0003.1480.000
BALAdam Jones 0.777-0.8410.0001.6180.000
BALNick Markakis -0.3620.4170.000-0.7790.000
BALLuke Scott -1.085-1.0850.0000.0000.000
BALBAL Luckbox0.5410.5410.0000.0000.000
BALDave Trembley-0.1300.000-0.1300.0000.000
BALNolan Reimold -0.217-0.2170.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
SEAFelix Hernandez -0.4070.000-0.4830.0760.000
SEARob Johnson 0.7931.0960.000-0.4400.137
SEACasey Kotchman 0.7120.1460.0000.5660.000
SEAChone Figgins -0.888-0.4640.000-0.4240.000
SEAJose Lopez 0.585-0.4490.0001.0340.000
SEAJack Wilson 2.1692.7470.000-0.5780.000
SEAMatt Tuiasosopo 1.167-0.3650.0001.5320.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 0.567-0.9490.0001.5160.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki -0.248-0.9940.0000.7460.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.7850.7850.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAMike Sweeney-1.463-1.2460.0000.000-0.217


Expected ERAs based on today's performances:

Kevin Millwood: 7.45

Felix Hernandez: 4.66

Player of the Game: Jack Wilson (2.169 NRuns: 2.747 hitting, -0.578 fielding)
... wait, run that by me again?: Jack Wilson (2.169 NRuns: 2.747 hitting, -0.578 fielding)
... you sure those aren't backwards? (Yes, I'm sure)

Felix: (-0.407 NRuns: -0.483 pitching, 0.076 fielding)
Mariners defensive NRuns: 4.028

Orioles Player of the Game in Defeat: Lou Montanez (3.101 NRuns: -0.047 hitting, 3.148 fielding)

Goat: Kevin Millwood (-3.107 NRuns, all pitching)

They were pretty bad too:
Justin Turner (-2.411 NRuns: -0.657 hitting, -1.754 fielding)
Ty Wigginton (-2.134 NRuns: -1.355 hitting, -0.128 fielding, -0.651 running)

Both team's DHs, Mike Sweeney and Luke Scott: -2.548 NRuns

******

The collective MVP of the Mariners in April, much like in 2009, has to be the defense, as Felix extended an okay outing to the wire with the help of excellent fielding. Jose Lopez, Matt Tuiasosopo (making a spot start in LF) and Franklin Gutierrez each saved more than a run in the field, while Ichiro and Casey Kotchman also made significant contributions.

One caveat: Three of Felix's six liners came during his 4th trip through the Baltimore Orioles' lineup, and most pitchers tend to get hit hard after three times through the lineup as 1) they fatigue and 2) hitters have seen them three times and have enough sense memory to catch up to their stuff during a 4th plate appearance.

Felix's third trip through the Orioles ended in coincidence with the end of the 7th inning, as Cesar Izturis flew out to center. Had his night ended there, his Expected ERA would have been a lot better at 3.72. Still not dominant, but then again Felix had only 4 of his 6 K's at that point and had given up three line drives. That's still a good outing given the average Expected ERA in Safeco Field is 4.21. Remember: Expected ERA assumes a league average defense and is based on an average run value for every ball in play. Given Felix was facing a crappy Baltimore lineup and had a great Mariners defense behind him, that he allowed only one run makes sense.

Though the game still ended in a Mariners victory and a CG for Felix, his last two frames are an example of why it's best to pull a starting pitcher after he's faced the full lineup three times. He allowed three line drives and a flyball to two groundballs and two K's in those final two frames. The Expected ERA from those two frames? 9.16. Good thing the Orioles were out of gas and the M's defense is still very good. Even though he had the game in control, Felix became a bit more beatable once the hitters got to see him a 4th time. I don't think fatigue was much of a factor until the 9th inning, but the Orioles seeing him a 4th time was probably a big factor.

(One note: 2009 and 2010 data shows that the 3rd and 4th times through the order produce similar numbers. But note that many lesser pitchers don't frequently see the lineup three full times, let alone a 4th time. They usually get part way through the 3rd trip before getting the hook. It's usually the hosses, the top pitchers in a staff, that get to see a lineup a 4th time. That the average numbers of these strong pitchers, on average, are on par with the 3rd trip through the order for every starter in the league, indicates what the combination of wear and in-game observation does to diminish the ace's chances in turn #4. Look at the pitch count stats to see how the wear affects pitchers.)

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Amidst a teary celebration, the Seattle Mariners end 2009 with big questions


The obvious top story from the Seattle Mariners season finale (which ended with a victory, a hugely improved 85-77 record, and an unusually long and touching celebration from the Mariners on the field) is that this game was quite possibly Ken Griffey Jr's last game ever.

He hasn't formally announced his retirement as of yet, carrying the 'weighing my options' line, but watching his slow fade of the last few years manifest in a so-so effort at the plate this season at age 39, and seeing him on the verge of tears as he came out of the game in the 8th inning after a line drive single (coincidentally, his 1st at-bat of 2009 ended with a line drive single), there's enough signs out there that this is probably it.

From a non-emotional perspective, on the heels of winning a surprising 85 of 162 games this season, it's clear that the Mariners will be looking this offseason for easy opportunities to upgrade the roster, and Junior's designated hitter role (the easiest spot to fill with a good hitter since defense isn't required) is a prime spot for improvement. The only way he could come back is if he, Mariner fans and the organization were okay with him coming off the bench as a pinch hitter and spot starter at DH. And given the condition of his knees from carrying 230 pounds of excess weight, Junior would probably have to overhaul his diet/exercise habits (which have never been the best) and shed 20-30 pounds to be in any condition to come back next year. One can hope a slimmer, healthier Junior could hit a little better, but really the team's safest bet is to let him walk and explore other options at DH.

Also, Felix Hernandez: 19 wins and 230+ innings later, he's finally become the ace everyone thought he'd be, but he was bawling similarly as well. Sure, he's an overtly emotional guy, but is it possible he has an inkling of changes as well? There's been occasional talk of the team being skittish about offering him a huge contract, and could explore trading him this offseason. In light of what other top pitchers are making, it would probably take at least 6 years and around $110-120 million to finish a deal... and that's if Felix and his agent were feeling generous. Jack Zduriencik has shown a willing to trade key pieces of the Mariners (JJ Putz, Jarrod Washburn), so the idea of a blockbuster deal centered around Felix in return for 4-5 valuable pieces is not out of the question. Never mind whether Felix will get the Cy Young... will he be back in 2010?

Also, amidst the multiple extended auditions of rookies (Michael Saunders, Mike Carp, Adam Moore, Rob Johnson) and trade acquisitions (Ryan Langerhans, Jack Hannahan, Jack Wilson, Bill Hall, Ian Snell)... the Mariners found few answers for their multiple question marks. Moore might be a useful option at catcher next season (Johnson and Kenji Johjima showed little this season). If Wilson comes back, shortstop is as good as his, and at his worst he's still an upgrade over the lackadaisically treacherous Yuniesky Betancourt.

There are certainly spots where the team has few liability concerns. Ichiro. Franklin Gutierrez in CF. A deep bullpen that, even when the faces change, the productivity remains the same. Jose Lopez, who isn't great but is reasonably productive at 2B. A slew of young pitching (Ryan Rowland-Smith, Luke French, Jason Vargas, Snell, Garrett Olson, Doug Fister) that can fill in at least a couple rotation blanks. There are, however, other issues:

- Adrian Beltre's impending free-agency departure leaves a huge void at 3B that Hannahan and Matt Tuiasosopo showed little evidence they could fill.

- Left field was already a question mark before Endy Chavez got hurt, and a carousel of outfielders (Hall, Saunders, the departed Wladimir Balentien and Langerhans) did not produce a standout candidate. Saunders was the best option out of the farm system, but he struggled this season and jury's out if he can take the next step in 2010.

- Russell Branyan was a star at 1st base this year, but if he wants a big contract off his biggest season ever, he likely won't be back. If so, does Mike Carp step up and seize the spot, or does the team make a move for an established star?

- If the Mariners don't pick up Wilson's $8+ million option, they need to find a shortstop, and there aren't any real options in the farm system.

- Ian Snell showed erratic form in his extended rotation trial, and it's not clear that he can lock down a high-end rotation spot as was hoped when he was acquired from Pittsburgh.

- Carlos Silva is owed several trucks full of money over the next two seasons and he washed himself out with terrible pitching this season. It's not clear if he'll make it back to form, let alone the rotation (even though it's clear the Mariners still have to pay him).

- Despite winning 85 games, the team was actually outscored. Per Pythageorean projections based on their runs scored versus runs allowed, the Mariners should have had a losing record. They overcame this with an exceptional defense, bullpen, and fortune in close games. The Mariners led the league in one run victories this year.

Now granted, Jack Zduriencik didn't just come into 2009 with a ton of questions, but an empty cupboard. And he managed to turn the team's fortunes around with a handful of savvy moves to upgrade the roster and turn the Mariners into a winner. But it's no surprise that a team that had so much fun playing together in 2009 wistfully hugged one another on the verge of tears and stayed on the field long after the game was over, not wanting it to end. None of them know what the future holds, and it may not be as fun as this season was for them.

It's a lot like Christmas in a troubled household: You savor the kids savoring their gifts, the food, music and good times all you can... because once everyone goes home, you clean up and everyone goes to bed... you've got to wake up and deal with reality, the money problems, the overloaded schedules, the obstacles... all over again. And for the Mariners, their reality is that it's going to take a lot of work just to maintain the level of competition they put forth this year... let alone to build on it.