Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-21-2010 (Seattle 4, Baltimore 1)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
BALKevin Millwood -3.1070.000-3.1070.0000.000
BALMatt Wieters -0.0200.1170.000-0.1370.000
BALGarrett Atkins 1.0260.1290.0000.8970.000
BALJustin Turner -2.411-0.6570.000-1.7540.000
BALTy Wigginton -2.134-1.3550.000-0.128-0.651
BALCesar Izturis 0.2490.1040.0000.1450.000
BALLou Montanez 3.101-0.0470.0003.1480.000
BALAdam Jones 0.777-0.8410.0001.6180.000
BALNick Markakis -0.3620.4170.000-0.7790.000
BALLuke Scott -1.085-1.0850.0000.0000.000
BALBAL Luckbox0.5410.5410.0000.0000.000
BALDave Trembley-0.1300.000-0.1300.0000.000
BALNolan Reimold -0.217-0.2170.0000.0000.000

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
SEAFelix Hernandez -0.4070.000-0.4830.0760.000
SEARob Johnson 0.7931.0960.000-0.4400.137
SEACasey Kotchman 0.7120.1460.0000.5660.000
SEAChone Figgins -0.888-0.4640.000-0.4240.000
SEAJose Lopez 0.585-0.4490.0001.0340.000
SEAJack Wilson 2.1692.7470.000-0.5780.000
SEAMatt Tuiasosopo 1.167-0.3650.0001.5320.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 0.567-0.9490.0001.5160.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki -0.248-0.9940.0000.7460.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.7850.7850.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAMike Sweeney-1.463-1.2460.0000.000-0.217

Expected ERAs based on today's performances:

Kevin Millwood: 7.45

Felix Hernandez: 4.66

Player of the Game: Jack Wilson (2.169 NRuns: 2.747 hitting, -0.578 fielding)
... wait, run that by me again?: Jack Wilson (2.169 NRuns: 2.747 hitting, -0.578 fielding)
... you sure those aren't backwards? (Yes, I'm sure)

Felix: (-0.407 NRuns: -0.483 pitching, 0.076 fielding)
Mariners defensive NRuns: 4.028

Orioles Player of the Game in Defeat: Lou Montanez (3.101 NRuns: -0.047 hitting, 3.148 fielding)

Goat: Kevin Millwood (-3.107 NRuns, all pitching)

They were pretty bad too:
Justin Turner (-2.411 NRuns: -0.657 hitting, -1.754 fielding)
Ty Wigginton (-2.134 NRuns: -1.355 hitting, -0.128 fielding, -0.651 running)

Both team's DHs, Mike Sweeney and Luke Scott: -2.548 NRuns


The collective MVP of the Mariners in April, much like in 2009, has to be the defense, as Felix extended an okay outing to the wire with the help of excellent fielding. Jose Lopez, Matt Tuiasosopo (making a spot start in LF) and Franklin Gutierrez each saved more than a run in the field, while Ichiro and Casey Kotchman also made significant contributions.

One caveat: Three of Felix's six liners came during his 4th trip through the Baltimore Orioles' lineup, and most pitchers tend to get hit hard after three times through the lineup as 1) they fatigue and 2) hitters have seen them three times and have enough sense memory to catch up to their stuff during a 4th plate appearance.

Felix's third trip through the Orioles ended in coincidence with the end of the 7th inning, as Cesar Izturis flew out to center. Had his night ended there, his Expected ERA would have been a lot better at 3.72. Still not dominant, but then again Felix had only 4 of his 6 K's at that point and had given up three line drives. That's still a good outing given the average Expected ERA in Safeco Field is 4.21. Remember: Expected ERA assumes a league average defense and is based on an average run value for every ball in play. Given Felix was facing a crappy Baltimore lineup and had a great Mariners defense behind him, that he allowed only one run makes sense.

Though the game still ended in a Mariners victory and a CG for Felix, his last two frames are an example of why it's best to pull a starting pitcher after he's faced the full lineup three times. He allowed three line drives and a flyball to two groundballs and two K's in those final two frames. The Expected ERA from those two frames? 9.16. Good thing the Orioles were out of gas and the M's defense is still very good. Even though he had the game in control, Felix became a bit more beatable once the hitters got to see him a 4th time. I don't think fatigue was much of a factor until the 9th inning, but the Orioles seeing him a 4th time was probably a big factor.

(One note: 2009 and 2010 data shows that the 3rd and 4th times through the order produce similar numbers. But note that many lesser pitchers don't frequently see the lineup three full times, let alone a 4th time. They usually get part way through the 3rd trip before getting the hook. It's usually the hosses, the top pitchers in a staff, that get to see a lineup a 4th time. That the average numbers of these strong pitchers, on average, are on par with the 3rd trip through the order for every starter in the league, indicates what the combination of wear and in-game observation does to diminish the ace's chances in turn #4. Look at the pitch count stats to see how the wear affects pitchers.)

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