Saturday, April 17, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-17-2010 (Seattle 4, Detroit 2)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
DETJustin Verlander -0.1410.000-0.7570.6160.000
DETGerald Laird -0.3380.0270.000-0.3650.000
DETMiguel Cabrera -0.565-0.8620.0000.2970.000
DETScott Sizemore -0.0770.4040.0000.000-0.481
DETBrandon Inge 0.037-0.0440.0000.0810.000
DETAdam Everett -0.4310.0500.000-0.4810.000
DETCarlos Guillen 0.457-0.0230.0000.4800.000
DETAustin Jackson 0.854-0.7290.0001.5830.000
DETRyan Raburn -2.334-1.4650.000-0.8690.000
DETMagglio OrdoƱez 0.4270.4270.0000.0000.000
DETDET Luckbox0.1070.1070.0000.0000.000
DETJim Leyland-0.165-0.1650.0000.0000.000
DETAlex Avila -0.238-0.2380.0000.0000.000
DETJohnny Damon 0.6160.6160.0000.0000.000
DETRamon Santiago -0.311-0.1690.000-0.1420.000
DETPhil Coke -0.3240.000-0.3240.0000.000
DETJoel Zumaya -0.0790.000-0.1060.0270.000

TeamPlayerNet RunsHittingPitchingDefenseBase
SEARyan Rowland-Smith -1.4090.000-1.4090.0000.000
SEAAdam Moore -0.683-0.5760.000-0.1070.000
SEACasey Kotchman -0.1500.6640.0000.000-0.814
SEAChone Figgins -0.738-1.5280.0000.6260.164
SEAJose Lopez 0.629-0.1420.0000.7710.000
SEAJack Wilson 0.077-0.1480.0000.442-0.217
SEAMilton Bradley 2.656-0.2330.0002.7300.159
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 1.5111.0720.0000.2210.218
SEAIchiro Suzuki 3.7731.9470.0001.5670.259
SEAKen Griffey Jr-1.262-1.2620.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.5890.4240.1650.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEABrandon League -0.4170.000-0.4170.0000.000
SEAMark Lowe -0.7680.000-0.7680.0000.000
SEADavid Aardsma -0.3240.000-0.3240.0000.000

Expected ERAs for today's pitching performances:

Justin Verlander - 5.12
Phil Coke - 12.32
Joel Zumaya - 5.54

Ryan Rowland-Smith - 6.17
Brandon League - 7.69
Mark Lowe - 10.62
David Aardsma - 6.92

Player of the Game: Ichiro! (3.773 NRuns: 1.947 batting, 1.567 fielding, 0.259 baserunning)

Honorable Mention: Milton Bradley (2.656 NRuns: -0.233 batting, 2.730 fielding, 0.159 baserunning)

Designated What?: Ken Griffey Jr. (-1.262 NRuns, all batting)

Goat: Ryan Raburn (-2.334 NRuns: -1.465 batting, -0.869 fielding)

Verlander looked like he was going to dominate after a 1st inning in which he saved the Tigers a full run. But a few innings and line drives later, he finished his 7th and final inning with a pedestrian -0.141 NRuns. He began that 7th and final inning by allowing a killer leadoff walk (0.417 NRuns). That baserunner, Milton Bradley, eventually came around to score on Casey Kotchman's RBI double.

Run Expectancy and Net Runs have shown me that, like any outcome, not all walks are created equal. There are three rules I've found to be true with walks (aside from obviously never issuing a walk with the bases loaded):

1. Do not walk the leadoff batter. (0.417 NRuns)

2. Do not walk a guy with two men on, regardless of what bases they occupy. (Average damage: 0.600 NRuns)

3. If you must walk a guy, the best time to issue a walk is with two outs and 1st base empty. (Average: 0.120 NRuns)

A crazy day in baseball today and a streamlined scoring process means I've got bonus material for today. Check back!

Issue a walk any other time

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