Net Runs Special, 4-17-2010: The Game You Thought Would Never End (NY Mets 2, St Louis 1, 20 innings)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
NYM	Johan Santana	1.621	-0.163	1.784	0.000	0.000
NYM	Rod Barajas	-0.768	-0.532	0.000	-0.236	0.000
NYM	Fernando Tatis	-0.512	-0.512	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Luis Castillo	0.682	-0.944	0.000	1.626	0.000
NYM	David Wright	-0.121	-0.453	0.000	0.431	-0.099
NYM	Jose Reyes	-0.836	-1.407	0.000	0.571	0.000
NYM	Jason Bay	0.140	-1.201	0.000	1.341	0.000
NYM	Angel Pagan	2.459	1.009	0.000	1.659	-0.209
NYM	Jeff Francoeur	-1.624	-1.776	0.000	0.152	0.000
NYM	NYM Luckbox	0.622	0.622	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Jerry Manuel	-0.912	-0.723	-0.189	0.000	0.000
NYM	Fernando Nieve	1.310	0.000	1.310	0.000	0.000
NYM	Henry Blanco	0.295	-0.557	0.000	0.852	0.000
NYM	John Maine	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Hisanori Takahashi	1.021	0.000	1.715	-0.694	0.000
NYM	Jonathon Niese	-0.093	-0.093	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Jenrry Mejia	0.146	0.000	0.146	0.000	0.000
NYM	Raul Valdes	-1.996	-0.511	-1.062	0.000	-0.423
NYM	Francisco Rodriguez	-1.142	0.000	-1.142	0.000	0.000
NYM	Mike Pelfrey	-0.004	0.000	-0.004	0.000	0.000
NYM	Frank Catalanotto	-0.093	-0.093	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Ryota Igarashi	0.234	0.000	0.234	0.000	0.000
NYM	Pedro Feliciano	0.248	0.000	0.248	0.000	0.000
NYM	Alex Cora	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Gary Matthews Jr	-0.307	-0.307	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Mike Jacobs	0.401	0.401	0.000	0.000	0.000

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
STL	Jaime Garcia	0.727	-0.608	1.193	0.142	0.000
STL	Yadier Molina	0.243	0.144	0.000	0.099	0.000
STL	Albert Pujols	2.122	0.807	0.000	1.315	0.000
STL	Skip Schumaker	-0.757	-0.571	0.000	0.023	-0.209
STL	David Freese	0.167	-0.047	0.000	0.214	0.000
STL	Felipe Lopez	-0.785	-1.025	0.165	0.284	-0.209
STL	Matt Holliday	-1.113	-1.859	0.000	0.746	0.000
STL	Colby Rasmus	-1.050	-1.059	0.000	0.009	0.000
STL	Ryan Ludwick	-1.197	-0.951	0.000	0.870	-1.116
STL	STL Luckbox	0.425	0.425	0.000	0.000	0.000
STL	Tony LaRussa	-0.855	-0.070	-0.622	-0.163	0.000
STL	Trever Miller	0.231	0.000	-0.515	0.746	0.000
STL	Jason Motte	-0.518	-0.771	0.484	-0.231	0.000
STL	Dennys Reyes	0.281	0.000	0.281	0.000	0.000
STL	Blake Hawksworth	-0.615	-0.771	0.156	0.000	0.000
STL	Bryan Anderson	-0.481	-0.481	0.000	0.000	0.000
STL	Ryan Franklin	0.357	0.000	0.357	0.000	0.000
STL	Kyle Lohse	0.301	-0.307	0.000	0.608	0.000
STL	Kyle McClellan	0.690	0.000	0.690	0.000	0.000
STL	Nick Stavinoha	0.260	0.260	0.000	0.000	0.000
STL	Mitchell Boggs	0.114	0.000	0.114	0.000	0.000
STL	Allen Craig	-0.095	-0.438	0.000	0.552	-0.209
STL	Joe Mather	-0.993	-0.018	-1.369	0.394	0.000
STL	Brendan Ryan	-0.695	-0.654	0.000	-0.204	0.163

Expected ERAs for today's pitching performances:

Johan Santana: 1.94
Fernando Nieve: 0.00
Hisanori Takahashi: 0.00
Jenrry Mejia: 3.45
Raul Valdes: 8.49
Francisco Rodriguez: 13.59
Mike Pelfrey: 4.10
Ryota Igarashi: 2.60
Pedro Feliciano: 2.51

Jaime Garcia: 2.64
Trever Miller: 8.36
Jason Motte: 1.03
Dennys Reyes: 1.72
Blake Hawksworth: 3.51
Ryan Franklin: 1.08
Kyle McClellan: 1.18
Mitchell Boggs: 3.35
---
Felipe Lopez: 2.69
Joe Mather: 9.77

NYM Player of the Game: CF Angel Pagan (2.459 NRuns: 1.009 hitting, 1.659 fielding, -0.209 running)

STL Player of the Game: 1B Albert Pujols (2.122 NRuns: 0.807 hitting, 1.315 fielding)

NYM Goat: RP Raul Valdes (-1.996 NRuns: -0.511 hitting, -1.062 pitching, -0.423 running)

STL Goat: OF Ryan Ludwick (-1.197 NRuns: -0.951 hitting, 0.870 fielding, -1.116 running)

The Net Runs surprise from a game this long is that no player cost his team more than a run and change, while no player contributed more than 2 runs and change. This was also a rare game in that Busch Stadium itself had no impact on the run expectancy: No ball went over the fence, and only Albert Pujols' 19th inning double came close to the wall. Every bit of run expectancy was impacted between the lines and in full control of the participating teams.

... except when the managers meddled. Mets manager Jerry Manuel and Cards manager Tony LaRussa combined to leak away 1.767 runs through sacrifice bunts and intentional walks. Granted, in the end game some of the intentional walks were somewhat smart, done so to get to one of the many relief pitchers who were forced to bat with two outs for an easy out. But many of the sacrifices and free passes came with no or one out, and while things could have gone badly for either manager as a result, they did not until the 19th and 20th innings.

Oddly enough, Jerry Manuel held K-Rod until his team finally took the lead in the top 19th, only to watch K-Rod pitch atrociously and blow the save in the bottom 19th before escaping. The key to victory for the Mets, however, was the Cardinals bullpen running out of gas, and Tony LaRussa being forced to enlist position players Felipe Lopez and Joe Mather to pitch (which matched just fine with pitcher Kyle Lohse being forced into duty in left field... Lohse BTW actually did a decent job fielding in left).

Felipe Lopez actually pitched fairly well, but only threw a single inning, and Mather, left out there for two frames, pitched much, much more like a player who never pitches. Two free passes, a line drive and two sac flies later, the Mets had a lead they would not relinquish, and it was coincidentally another out of place player, #2 starter Mike Pelfrey, who came on and pitched a decent 20th for an oddball save he likely will never forget.