Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-14-2010 (Seattle 4, Oakland 2)

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, April 14, 2010
Seattle 4, Oakland 2
Park: Safeco Field
Run Expectancy: 0.505 runs per half inning

SEATTLE MARINERS

Pos	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Running
9	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.076	-0.222	0.000	0.146	0.000
4	Chone Figgins	-0.148	0.205	0.000	-0.353	0.000
8	Franklin Gutierrez	2.793	1.662	0.000	1.131	0.000
5	Jose Lopez	1.039	0.636	0.000	0.540	-0.137
DH	Milton Bradley	-0.393	0.389	0.000	0.000	-0.782
7	Eric Byrnes	1.427	0.215	0.000	1.212	0.000
3	Matt Tuiasosopo	-1.205	-1.205	0.000	0.000	0.000
2	Adam Moore	0.383	0.166	0.000	0.217	0.000
6	Jack Wilson	-0.714	-0.714	0.000	0.000	0.000
SP	Jason Vargas	0.667	0.000	0.921	-0.254	0.000
0	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Mgr	Don Wakamatsu	-0.253	-0.253	0.000	0.000	0.000
RP	Brandon League	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.612	0.000
RP	David Aardsma	0.214	0.000	0.214	0.000	0.000

Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.793 NRuns: 1.662 batting runs, 1.131 fielding runs)
Dishonorable Mention: Matt Tuiasosopo (-1.205 NRuns, all batting runs)

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Pos	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
8	Rajai Davis	0.428	-0.820	0.000	1.248	0.000
3	Daric Barton	-0.505	-0.288	0.000	0.000	-0.217
2	Kurt Suzuki	-0.663	-0.305	0.000	-0.358	0.000
5	Kevin Kouzmanoff	-0.240	-0.240	0.000	0.000	0.000
DH	Jake Fox	0.932	0.932	0.000	0.000	0.000
4	Adam Rosales	0.579	-0.170	0.000	0.749	0.000
9	Gabe Gross	-0.888	-0.721	0.000	-0.167	0.000
7	Eric Patterson	-0.597	-0.574	0.000	-0.023	0.000
6	Cliff Pennington	-0.066	-0.142	0.000	0.076	0.000
SP	Gio Gonzalez	-0.911	0.000	-1.491	0.580	0.000
0	OAK Luckbox	0.491	0.000	0.491	0.000	0.000
Mgr	Bob Geren	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
RP	Chad Gaudin	-0.392	0.000	-0.392	0.000	0.000
RP	Edwar Ramirez	-0.673	0.000	-0.673	0.000	0.000

Player of the Game: Jake Fox (0.932 NRuns, all batting since obviously he's the DH)
Dishonorable Mention: Gio Gonzalez (-0.911 NRuns on -1.491 pitching runs but 0.580 fielding runs)

This table explained:

- The above numbers indicate the net run expectancy added by each player as a hitter, pitcher, fielder or baserunner. Total Net Runs are listed in the first column.

The run expectancy on which these numbers are based is derived from a composite MLB average of 2005-2009, recent years weighed more heavily, and park adjusted to the home field.

Average is 0.000. Any positive number indicates runs above average, and any negative number indicates runs below average.

- You can estimate a pitcher's expected ERA for an outing by taking the run expectancy for the park and multiplying it by his innings pitched, then subtracting the pitcher's pitching Net Runs to get the number of runs that pitcher was expected to allow with his performance. Figure his Runs/9 accordingly and then multiply that by 0.927 to get his Expected ERA.

Jason Vargas' expected ERA, for example, is 2.93.

0.505 x 6 IP = 3.030 - 0.921 pitching NR prevented = 2.109 expected runs

2.109 ExpR in 6 IP = 3.164 ExpR/9 ----> 2.93 ExpERA

Vargas did allow two runs in the actual game, very close to his 2.109 Expected Runs. The defense picked up the tab on that additional 0.109 ExpR.

Expected ERAs for today's pitching:

Gio Gonzalez: 6.88
Chad Gaudin: 6.67
Edwar Ramirez: 7.02

Jason Vargas: 2.93
Brandon League: 5.49
David Aardsma: 2.43

- The Luckbox column indicate events beyond the team's control that benefited the team, such as errors and wild pitches.

- The managers are included for decisions such as sacrifice bunts and intentional walks, which in most cases take matters out of his players' hands but also influence the team's run expectancy.