Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-14-2010 (Seattle 4, Oakland 2)

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, April 14, 2010
Seattle 4, Oakland 2
Park: Safeco Field
Run Expectancy: 0.505 runs per half inning


PosPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefRunning
9Ichiro Suzuki-0.076-0.2220.0000.1460.000
4Chone Figgins-0.1480.2050.000-0.3530.000
8Franklin Gutierrez2.7931.6620.0001.1310.000
5Jose Lopez1.0390.6360.0000.540-0.137
DHMilton Bradley-0.3930.3890.0000.000-0.782
7Eric Byrnes1.4270.2150.0001.2120.000
3Matt Tuiasosopo-1.205-1.2050.0000.0000.000
2Adam Moore0.3830.1660.0000.2170.000
6Jack Wilson-0.714-0.7140.0000.0000.000
SPJason Vargas0.6670.0000.921-0.2540.000
0SEA Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
MgrDon Wakamatsu-0.253-0.2530.0000.0000.000
RPBrandon League0.3060.000-0.3060.6120.000
RPDavid Aardsma0.2140.0000.2140.0000.000

Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.793 NRuns: 1.662 batting runs, 1.131 fielding runs)
Dishonorable Mention: Matt Tuiasosopo (-1.205 NRuns, all batting runs)


PosPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
8Rajai Davis0.428-0.8200.0001.2480.000
3Daric Barton-0.505-0.2880.0000.000-0.217
2Kurt Suzuki-0.663-0.3050.000-0.3580.000
5Kevin Kouzmanoff-0.240-0.2400.0000.0000.000
DHJake Fox0.9320.9320.0000.0000.000
4Adam Rosales0.579-0.1700.0000.7490.000
9Gabe Gross-0.888-0.7210.000-0.1670.000
7Eric Patterson-0.597-0.5740.000-0.0230.000
6Cliff Pennington-0.066-0.1420.0000.0760.000
SPGio Gonzalez-0.9110.000-1.4910.5800.000
0OAK Luckbox0.4910.0000.4910.0000.000
MgrBob Geren0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
RPChad Gaudin-0.3920.000-0.3920.0000.000
RPEdwar Ramirez-0.6730.000-0.6730.0000.000

Player of the Game: Jake Fox (0.932 NRuns, all batting since obviously he's the DH)
Dishonorable Mention: Gio Gonzalez (-0.911 NRuns on -1.491 pitching runs but 0.580 fielding runs)

This table explained:

- The above numbers indicate the net run expectancy added by each player as a hitter, pitcher, fielder or baserunner. Total Net Runs are listed in the first column.

The run expectancy on which these numbers are based is derived from a composite MLB average of 2005-2009, recent years weighed more heavily, and park adjusted to the home field.

Average is 0.000. Any positive number indicates runs above average, and any negative number indicates runs below average.

- You can estimate a pitcher's expected ERA for an outing by taking the run expectancy for the park and multiplying it by his innings pitched, then subtracting the pitcher's pitching Net Runs to get the number of runs that pitcher was expected to allow with his performance. Figure his Runs/9 accordingly and then multiply that by 0.927 to get his Expected ERA.

Jason Vargas' expected ERA, for example, is 2.93.

0.505 x 6 IP = 3.030 - 0.921 pitching NR prevented = 2.109 expected runs

2.109 ExpR in 6 IP = 3.164 ExpR/9 ----> 2.93 ExpERA

Vargas did allow two runs in the actual game, very close to his 2.109 Expected Runs. The defense picked up the tab on that additional 0.109 ExpR.

Expected ERAs for today's pitching:

Gio Gonzalez: 6.88
Chad Gaudin: 6.67
Edwar Ramirez: 7.02

Jason Vargas: 2.93
Brandon League: 5.49
David Aardsma: 2.43

- The Luckbox column indicate events beyond the team's control that benefited the team, such as errors and wild pitches.

- The managers are included for decisions such as sacrifice bunts and intentional walks, which in most cases take matters out of his players' hands but also influence the team's run expectancy.

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