Saturday, April 17, 2010

Net Runs Special, 4-17-2010: Ubaldo Jimenez's No Hitter (Colorado 4, Atlanta 0)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
COLUbaldo Jimenez 1.1120.3710.4970.1380.106
COLMiguel Olivo -1.645-1.5110.0000.352-0.486
COLTodd Helton 1.0850.6450.0000.4400.000
COLClint Barmes -0.498-0.5040.0000.0060.000
COLIan Stewart 0.5710.0830.0000.4880.000
COLTroy Tulowitzki -0.465-0.6860.0000.2210.000
COLCarlos Gonzalez 1.9141.5460.0000.3680.000
COLDexter Fowler 0.450-1.0030.0001.4530.000
COLBrad Hawpe 1.2240.8580.0000.3660.000
COLCOL Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
COLJim Tracy0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
ATLKenshin Kawakami -0.2950.0000.1640.000-0.459
ATLBrian McCann -0.605-0.6050.0000.0000.000
ATLTroy Glaus -0.388-0.5330.0000.1450.000
ATLMartin Prado 0.4390.0280.0000.4110.000
ATLChipper Jones 0.142-0.2380.0000.601-0.221
ATLYunel Escobar -2.394-0.8460.000-1.6550.107
ATLMelky Cabrera 0.244-0.2100.0000.592-0.138
ATLNate McLouth -1.167-0.8770.000-0.2900.000
ATLJason Heyward 0.261-0.0090.0000.2700.000
ATLATL Luckbox0.1590.1590.0000.0000.000
ATLBobby Cox-0.252-0.2520.0000.0000.000
ATLBrooks Conrad -0.317-0.3170.0000.0000.000
ATLJonny Venters0.6170.0000.5410.0760.000
ATLEric Hinske -0.170-0.1700.0000.0000.000
ATLJesse Chavez 0.1410.0000.1410.0000.000

Expected ERAs for today's pitching performances:

Ubaldo Jimenez: 3.79

Kenshin Kawakami: 3.97
Jonny Venters: 2.74
Jesse Chavez: 3.07

Player of the Game: Carlos Gonzalez (1.914 NRuns: 1.546 hitting, 0.368 fielding)

The Man Who Threw the No Hitter: Ubaldo Jimenez (1.112 NRuns: 0.371 hitting, 0.497 pitching, 0.138 fielding, 0.106 baserunning)

Goat: Yunel Escobar (-2.394 NRuns: -0.846 hitting, -1.655 fielding, 0.107 running)

How can a man throw a no-hitter and not be the Player of the Game? Simple: Walk six guys and give up a bunch of flyballs that outfielders pile up Net Runs by catching. Walks, line drives and flyballs negatively impact a pitcher's Net Runs, and you can cruise through a game with a sinking Net Run total if you've got good defense and luck on your side, and Ubaldo had a lot of both on his side today. Ubaldo does deserve credit for positively contributing in all four Net Runs categories (probably the first time I've seen that this season), and as you see he did have a fine game today no matter how you slice it. But he needed about 4 runs worth of defensive help to finish the job today, and to his defense's credit he got all of it he needed.

If nothing else, this is a fine illustration of how much luck and help a pitcher needs to throw a no hitter. Ubaldo struck out seven but walked six and had 11 flyouts to 8 groundouts. Everyone in the field for the Rockies contributed positively, though no one did more defensively than CF Dexter Fowler, who included a running catch of a dicey flyball to right center among his 1.453 fielding NRuns. If not for his atrocious day at the plate (-1.003 NRuns hitting) he'd have had a shot at Player of the Game.

Congratulations to Ubaldo Jimenez and the Colorado Rockies for threading the needle and completing one of the more unlikely no hitters in baseball history.

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