Monday, April 19, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-19-2010 (Seattle 8, Baltimore 2)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
BALBrad Bergesen -2.9610.000-2.9610.0000.000
BALMatt Wieters -0.314-0.3140.0000.0000.000
BALLuke Scott 0.5590.4140.0000.1450.000
BALJulio Lugo 0.880-0.4340.0001.3140.000
BALTy Wigginton 0.0161.0690.000-1.0530.000
BALCesar Izturis -1.377-0.6450.000-0.7320.000
BALLou Montanez 0.233-0.6620.0000.8950.000
BALAdam Jones 0.734-0.6740.0001.4080.000
BALNick Markakis -0.856-0.3740.000-0.4820.000
BALNolan Reimold -0.925-0.4910.0000.000-0.434
BALBAL Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
BALDave Trembley0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
BALJason Berken -0.5950.000-0.5950.0000.000
BALKam Mickolio -0.1730.000-0.1730.0000.000

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
SEADoug Fister -0.8590.000-1.1560.2970.000
SEARob Johnson -1.093-1.0930.0000.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman 2.5722.5720.0000.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins 0.825-0.5930.0001.4180.000
SEAJose Lopez -1.358-0.9630.0000.086-0.481
SEAJack Wilson 0.9620.6700.0000.1550.137
SEAMilton Bradley 2.2880.3440.0001.9440.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 2.1372.1370.0000.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 1.2470.4770.0000.7700.000
SEAKen Griffey Jr-0.8740.1290.0000.000-1.003
SEASEA Luckbox1.3901.3900.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAEric Byrnes 0.2370.2370.0000.0000.000
SEABrandon League 0.1380.0000.1380.0000.000
SEAShawn Kelley -0.1550.000-0.1550.0000.000

Expected ERAs based on today's pitching performances:

Brad Bergesen: 13.48
Jason Berken: 5.70
Kam Mickolio: 5.66

Doug Fister: 5.59
Brandon League: 3.06
Shawn Kelley: 5.51

Player of the Game: Casey Kotchman (2.572 NRuns, all hitting)
Key Contributor #2: Milton Bradley (2.288 NRuns, 0.344 hitting, 1.944 fielding)
Key Contributor #3: Franklin Gutierrez (2.137 NRuns, all hitting)
Seattle's good luck: 1.390 NRuns
This guy had a no hitter entering the 7th? Doug Fister (-0.859 NRuns, -1.156 pitching, 0.297 fielding)

This guy sure didn't: Brad Bergesen (-2.961 NRuns, all pitching)

Doug Fister overcame a shaky 1st inning to retire something like 16 consecutive batters to take a no-no into the 7th before Nick Markakis strung a grounder into center to lead off the 7th, and then back to back liners later in the frame killed the shutout. Aside from that poor last inning, Doug's Net Runs total sunk with the help of the bad 1st frame and three line drives during the game. Many of the strikeouts and pop outs Doug collected were with the bases empty and 1 or 2 outs, which minimized their positive RE value and their ability to cancel out the costly line drives. Entering that 7th inning his expected ERA based on his performance in the first six frames was an underwhelming 4.70, and the hits allowed in the 7th didn't help.

While his defense helped him out a lot (Chone Figgins made a couple of impressive plays), surprisingly the team's two best fielders at their respective positions, Franklin Gutierrez in CF and Casey Kotchman at 1B, did not play a part. Franklin did not catch a single ball today, and Kotchman did not field anything other than pop ups, relays and putout throws. The defensive studs that did most of the heavy defensive lifting? Chone Figgins, of course... and Milton Bradley in LF. Granted, Bradley has help from Safeco's infamous seaside air and flyball killing jetstream in from LF. But for a guy who was considered a weakness defensively in LF, Milton Bradley has been a consistently solid fielder in left who has gotten to virtually every ball he can, and it shows in his Net Runs total.

Brad Bergesen's expected ERA looks like the price of a lovely sit-down breakfast.

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