Showing posts with label Adam Dunn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Adam Dunn. Show all posts

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Net Runs Special, 6-8-2010: Stephen Strasburg's Major League Debut (Washington 5, Pittsburgh 2)


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
PITJeff Karstens -0.671-0.274-0.3970.0000.0004.9515
PITJason Jaramillo -0.804-0.8030.000-0.0010.0000.000
PITGarrett Jones -1.788-0.9390.000-0.009-0.8400.000
PITNeil Walker 0.807-0.1640.0000.9710.0000.000
PITAndy LaRoche -0.030-0.0820.0000.0520.0000.000
PITRonny Cedeno 1.180-0.0440.0001.1180.1060.000
PITLastings Milledge 2.3350.2480.0002.0870.0000.000
PITAndrew McCutchen -0.694-0.9120.0000.2180.0000.000
PITDelwyn Young 0.5431.3970.000-0.8540.0000.000
PITJavier Lopez -1.2370.000-1.2370.0000.00014.613
PITEvan Meek 0.6060.0000.6060.0000.0001.766
PITRyan Church -0.319-0.3190.0000.0000.0000.000
PITPIT Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
PITJohn Russell0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
WASStephen Strasburg 0.017-0.4120.4290.0000.0003.7821
WASIvan Rodriguez -0.3550.4540.000-0.106-0.7030.000
WASAdam Dunn 2.6602.5220.0000.1380.0000.000
WASCristian Guzman 0.484-0.4620.0000.8400.1060.000
WASRyan Zimmerman 1.6151.6160.000-0.0010.0000.000
WASIan Desmond 0.381-0.7030.0001.0840.0000.000
WASJosh Willingham 1.1321.2450.0000.376-0.4890.000
WASNyjer Morgan -0.482-0.4820.0000.0000.0000.000
WASRoger Bernadina -1.066-1.5640.0000.4980.0000.000
WASTyler Clippard 0.1430.0000.1430.0000.0003.103
WASMatt Capps 0.4460.0000.4460.0000.0000.573
WASAdam Kennedy -0.0010.0000.000-0.0010.0000.000
WASWillie Harris -0.240-0.2400.0000.0000.0000.000
WASWAS Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
WASJim Riggleman0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Nationals Park4.6620.0000.000-4.6620.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.514


How Net Runs works.

More on Strasburg's debut in this piece.

Player of the Game: ... Adam Dunn?! (2.660 NRuns: 2.522 hitting, 0.138 fielding)

What about our hero, Stephen Strasburg? (0.017 NRuns: -0.412 hitting, 0.429 pitching... 3.78 EXERA)

Nationals defense: 2.828 NRuns
Nationals hitting: 1.974 NRuns

Goat: Garrett Jones (-1.788 NRuns: -0.939 hitting, -0.009 fielding, -0.840 running)

******

I don't process Net Runs with any personal bias. At most, I make judgment calls on which fielder was responsible for some plays, and whether a wild pitch was truly a wild pitch or a pitch the catcher should have blocked and didn't. But otherwise, I just put in the play by play data, my spreadsheet auto-scores it accordingly and what you get is the end result.

For any misgivings I have offered about the possibilities of Stephen Strasburg's greatness, I fully expected him to be the Player of the Game for this contest and for his pitching stats to bear out a dominant performance against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.

Instead, Net Runs indicates that he had simply a good game, an effort where you should expect him to allow 3 runs over 7 innings. He allowed two runs on a home run by Delwyn Young in the 4th, but I figured that would be a blip on a radar of strikeouts and groundballs that would roll up positive Net Runs like a Katamari ball.

Instead, it turns out that inning also featured three of the five line drives Strasburg allowed, each of which cost him 0.521 NRuns. Strasburg's 14 strikeouts averaged 0.180 NRuns per K, a total of 2.520 NRuns in pitching production. And the line drives cost him about 2.605 NRuns, offseting all of that and more. You can say that Strasburg had a bad lineup so far off balance that it shouldn't matter, and contextually speaking you're probably right. But on five occasions, Pirates hitters were able to square a Strasburg pitch up and drive it, and appropriately four of those line drives produced base hits, one of which was Delwyn Young's two run homer.

Strasburg still finished in the black thanks to four groundballs at 0.102 NRuns a pop, and a pop up (which it turns out ended the two run inning) for 0.102 NRuns. But a combination of the Pirates' own futility and a bit of fortune during the two run inning (a double play turned against Garrett Jones actually saved a run: Young's homer came in the next plate appearance) did just as much to cement Strasburg's dominance as Strasburg did himself.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

National Crisis

Between fielding a poor team with thin talent and... well, that's enough of a problem in itself, baseball's Washington Nationals face the following problems going into Spring Training:

- Despite narrowly avoiding arbitration and agreeing to a one year, $3.325 million contract, the Nationals' relations with star 3rd baseman Ryan Zimmerman may be strained and could affect the possibility of retaining the team's best hitter over the long term.

- GM Jim Bowden's being investigated for suspicion of skimming signing bonuses from prospects. Smooth move, Jim.

- Veteran starting pitcher Odalis Perez, the Opening Day starting pitcher from last season and arguably the best pitcher of a crappy bunch, is threatening a contract holdout. If he refuses to report, the Nats' Opening Day starter in 2009 projects to be middling lefthander John Lannan, he of 15 losses and ~3.5 walks plus per 9 innings in 2008, not to mention 23 HR in 182 innings pitching mostly in pitchers parks.

- Investigative journalism has discovered that top prospect Esmailyn "Smiley" Gonzalez is not only four years older than previously thought, but Esmailyn Gonzalez is not his real name: that would be Carlos Alvarez Daniel Lugo, part of the coverup of the Dominican's actual age. Someone may well go to jail as a result of the fradulent transaction spearheaded by agent and former major league pitcher Jose Rijo.

- The Nats' top offseason acquisition: plodding 1B/DH/strikeout machine Adam Dunn. This signing came despite having talented but injury prone 1B Nick Johnson and expensive and troublesome but powerful 1B Dmitri Young on the payroll. Both come with baggage that make trading them difficult, and GM Jim Bowden now faces the difficulty of trying to deal one or both of them instead of letting both pricey, talented sluggers ride the pine or embarrass themselves in the outfield every day.

- Meanwhile, the team's best hope is owning the 1st pick in the draft after compiling MLB's worst regular season record (59-102) in 2008. It's doubtful even Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State ace pitcher projected to be this year's number 1 draft pick, can save this tattered bunch.

Would Montreal be willing to take the Nats back if the Nats ownership asked nicely?