Showing posts with label Franklin Gutierrez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Franklin Gutierrez. Show all posts

Friday, May 28, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-28-2010 (Seattle 8, Anaheim 3)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEACliff Lee-1.1400.0000.224-1.3640.0004.2524
SEARob Johnson-0.171-0.3310.0000.0000.1600.000
SEACasey Kotchman-0.317-0.3170.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins1.5191.9250.0000.701-1.1070.000
SEAJose Lopez0.7880.6960.0000.0920.0000.000
SEAJosh Wilson0.8470.4780.0000.3690.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley-0.182-0.0470.000-0.1350.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez3.2781.5840.0000.9660.7280.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki0.9700.5250.0000.4450.0000.000
SEAMike Sweeney-1.388-1.3880.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAShawn Kelley0.3100.0000.3100.0000.0001.903
SEASEA Luckbox0.4860.2520.0000.2340.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
ANAScott Kazmir-1.9300.000-2.0930.1630.0007.7616
ANAMike Napoli-0.897-0.8970.0000.0000.0000.000
ANAKendry Morales0.071-0.0650.0000.1360.0000.000
ANAHowie Kendrick0.8790.6350.0000.2440.0000.000
ANAKevin Frandsen0.2410.5340.000-0.2930.0000.000
ANAErick Aybar-0.162-1.0140.0000.8520.0000.000
ANAJuan Rivera-0.726-0.6810.000-0.0450.0000.000
ANATorii Hunter-2.109-1.0490.000-1.0600.0000.000
ANABobby Abreu-1.545-0.1490.000-1.3960.0000.000
ANAHideki Matsui-1.019-1.0190.0000.0000.0000.000
ANATrevor Bell0.8090.0000.8090.0000.0000.445
ANAFrancisco Rodriguez0.3750.0000.3750.0000.0001.363
ANAScot Shields-1.0160.000-1.0160.0000.00012.973
ANAANA Luckbox2.9701.8630.0001.1070.0000.000
ANAMike Scoiscia0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Angels Stadium0.9410.0000.000-0.9410.0000.000


Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (3.278 NRuns: 1.584 hitting, 0.966 fielding, 0.728 running)
Cooling Off: Mike Sweeney (-1.388 hitting NRuns)

Chone Figgins' baserunning gaffe: -1.107 NRuns
Chone Figgins otherwise: 2.626 NRuns
Franklin Gutierrez scoring from 1st on a single: 0.728 NRuns

Anaheim's Luckbox: 2.970 NRuns

Goat: Torii Hunter (-2.109 NRuns: -1.049 hitting, -1.060 fielding)

******

Two interesting plays:

1) Franklin Gutierrez scored from 1st base on a single by Milton Bradley. This is exceptionally rare, to the point where 1940's Cardinals slugger Enos Slaughter is famous for having done it. Even the fastest runners, even on a hit and run, don't get past 3rd from 1st on a single. Franklin's feat is even more incredible given he's not known for his speed, though granted he is somewhat fast.

2) Chone Figgins killed the mood on Franklin's bases loaded RBI single in the 9th by getting caught between 2nd and 3rd base, forcing Ichiro to run home to try and bail him out (to no avail: Ichiro was tagged out on Chone's behalf as everyone moved up). Ichiro's futile run did have the benefit of allowing Franklin to take 2nd base, which while not significant made the move a positive play on Ichiro's part.

Aside from that, Mike Sweeney plummeted to Earth with an 0 for 5 game, Cliff Lee had 10 strikeouts over 8 in what was a solid performance and the Mariners won a game with a big day at the plate for a change.

Postscript:

Here's some more info on players who have scored from 1st on a single (BTW, the initial poster in the thread is incorrect: Slaughter did in fact score on a single). Willie Mays, go figure, had a prolific history of scoring from 1st base on singles through the 1950's and 1960's. And the thread has an amazing story of how Ty Cobb used psychology to score from 1st on a teammate's routine groundout.

Cobb was on 1st. Hal Chase is covering 1st for the Highlanders. Batter hits routine grounder to SS. Cobb, having taken a nice lead, got a good jump and was off with the pitch. SS fields the ball cleanly and throws to 1st for the out.

Chase gets the ball and Cobb is around 12 feet off of 2nd on the 3B side. Seeing Chase with the ball, arm cocked & poised to throw, Cobb freezes stock still. Arms out like a tightrope walker, bent low to the ground. Chase fears throwing to 2B, fearing Cobb will bolt towards 3rd.

Cobb, with narrowed eyes slit, like a big panther, forces the action. Using his head like a Cobra, he feints his head back towards 2B, as if to dive back, to draw the throw. Chase instantly slings an underhand bullet to 2B to nail his man. But the instant Chase' arm is committed to his throw, Cobb, who had only moved his head, bolts toward 3B like a big cat, with Chase's curses ringing in his ears like music.

The 2nd baseman who takes the throw is slightly off-balance and out of position to make his throw to 3rd. He snags the throw, adjusts to throw to 3rd but finding Cobb in his line of fire, must take that deadly step towards the pitcher's mound, to throw clear of Cobb's body, and fires a bullet to 3B. The 3rd baseman is expecting Cobb to come in low, hook-sliding to his (Cobb's) right, away from him. He takes a perfect throw, and sweeps his gloved hand backwards, expecting to nail Cobb as he slides back to third.

But Cobb had anticipated the mind of the 3rd basemen. He never slid. He leaned way in towards the pitching mound, as if to hook, but violently pivoting on the bag, and never broke stride. While the 3rd basemen was swiping behind him, Cobb was half way home. The 3rd basemen instantly adjusted and prepared to fire home. But once again, Cobb, by watching the catcher's eyes, sees what side the throw is coming from, and keeps in between the throw and the catcher.

So once again, the 3rd baseman, must take that deadly little step to the side, in order to throw around Cobb.

He should have gotten him too, but Cobb watched the catcher's eyes, and positioned himself between the incoming throw and the catcher. The throw came in online, but Cobb, by watching the catcher's eyes, contorted his slide into the path of the throw, so it bounced harmlessly off of his back.

He scored against flawless play by knowing their habits. Genius, just genius.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-19-2010 (Toronto 3, Seattle 2)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
TORBrett Cecil-1.6960.000-1.603-0.0930.0006.3219
TORJohn Buck1.0591.0890.000-0.1370.1070.000
TORLyle Overbay0.6900.6900.0000.0000.0000.000
TORAaron Hill-0.591-0.9690.0000.3780.0000.000
TOREdwin Encarnacion-1.552-1.6460.0000.0940.0000.000
TORAlex Gonzalez0.5600.3500.0000.2100.0000.000
TORFred Lewis0.692-1.0910.0001.7830.0000.000
TORVernon Wells-1.058-0.8460.000-0.2120.0000.000
TORJose Bautista1.9950.6310.0001.3640.0000.000
TORAdam Lind0.1400.1400.0000.0000.0000.000
TORShawn Camp0.8130.0000.8130.0000.000-5.962
TORScott Downs-0.3760.000-0.3760.0000.0007.353
TORKevin Gregg0.1160.0000.1160.0000.0003.253
TORTOR Luckbox0.2080.0000.0000.2080.0000.000
TORCito Gaston0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEADoug Fister0.1170.0000.1170.0000.0004.0924
SEAJosh Bard-0.248-0.2480.0000.0000.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman0.1070.1020.0000.0050.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins0.6940.6500.000-0.0930.1370.000
SEAJose Lopez0.669-0.8140.0001.4830.0000.000
SEAJosh Wilson0.1121.5410.000-1.4290.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley0.3570.1170.0000.2400.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez-1.186-1.1610.000-0.0250.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki-0.304-0.5900.0000.2860.0000.000
SEAMike Sweeney-1.735-1.7350.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAMatt Tuiasosopo-0.315-0.3150.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAKen Griffey Jr-0.238-0.2380.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADavid Aardsma0.9610.0000.9610.0000.000-3.803
SEASEA Luckbox0.2170.2170.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu-0.208-0.2080.0000.0000.0000.000
 Safeco Field0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


Player of the Game: Jose Bautista (1.995 NRuns: 0.631 hitting, 1.364 fielding)

Players with more than 1.000 hitting NRuns: 2 (Josh Wilson and John Buck)

Toronto's lineup: -1.652 NRuns
Seattle's lineup: -2.691 NRuns

Toronto's defense: 3.387 NRuns

Josh Wilson's defense: -1.429 NRuns
Rest of Seattle's defense: 1.896 NRuns

Goat: Mike Sweeney (-1.735 hitting NRuns)

******

Toronto got three runs during two bad innings by Doug Fister, but to Fister's credit he had such a good game in his other six innings that he got back above average for the night (4.09 EXERA) after he finished the 8th inning. David Aardsma shook off a leadoff double and a runner on 3rd with one out to put down the Jays in the 9th.

Aside from that, Mike Sweeney killed some rallies, Franklin Gutierrez killed some rallies (in one of his worst games of the season), and their most productive hitter tonight, Josh Wilson (1.541 hitting NRuns) got lifted in the 9th for Ken Griffey Jr, who popped out. Many of the M's hits came in low-percentage situations, such as two outs and the bases empty (a single or walk here is worth 0.119 NRuns). They amount to hollow victories and baserunners left behind 9 out of 10 times.

The M's had their moments but couldn't get a real rally going more than 2-3 times. Toronto's outfield defense was great tonight, and when the other team's outfielders are making catches there's usually not much you can do, especially when your team blows.

Not that Jack Zduriencik or Don Wakamatsu deserve to lose their jobs, but I wonder how long ownership puts up with this before they put the heat on. This team is partially their fault (Griffey would have been gone weeks ago if not for Chuck Armstrong), but owners will absolve themselves and blame the GM and field manager when things go south.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-27-2010 (Seattle 3, Kansas City 2)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAIan Snell 0.6380.000-0.4531.0910.0005.7616
SEAAdam Moore -0.998-0.9980.0000.0000.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman -1.776-2.0480.0000.2720.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins -1.379-0.4370.000-0.9420.0000.000
SEAJose Lopez 1.013-0.2910.0000.6880.6160.000
SEAJack Wilson -1.340-1.1500.000-0.1900.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley 3.8611.3630.0002.4980.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 3.1020.9780.0002.1240.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki -2.094-0.0910.000-1.501-0.5020.000
SEAKen Griffey Jr0.1150.1150.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAEric Byrnes 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAShawn Kelley 0.6200.0000.6200.0000.0001.945
SEAMark Lowe -0.1530.000-0.1530.0000.0006.323
SEADavid Aardsma -0.6090.000-0.6090.0000.00010.133


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
KCRZack Greinke 1.3390.0001.3390.0000.0003.4521
KCRJason Kendall -0.622-1.0960.0000.4740.0000.000
KCRBilly Butler 1.5951.1990.0000.3960.0000.000
KCRAlberto Callaspo -1.475-0.2920.000-1.1830.0000.000
KCRAlex Gordon-0.308-0.4910.0000.0260.1570.000
KCRYuniesky Betancourt -2.195-0.9910.000-1.2040.0000.000
KCRScott Podsednik -0.105-0.7050.0000.6000.0000.000
KCRMitch Maier 1.6621.1850.0000.4480.0290.000
KCRDavid DeJesus 0.456-0.6230.0001.447-0.3680.000
KCRJose Guillen -1.606-1.6060.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRKCR Luckbox0.1570.1570.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRTrey Hillman0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRJosh Rupe-0.1020.000-0.1020.0000.0007.601
KCRRob Tejeda -1.1150.000-0.295-0.8200.0000
KCRBruce Chen1.3190.0001.2050.1140.0000.005
 Kauffmann Stadium0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


Players of the Game because picking only one is absurd:

Milton Bradley (3.861 NRuns: 1.363 hitting, 2.498 fielding)
Franklin Gutierrez (3.102 NRuns: 0.978 hitting, 2.124 fielding)

ICHIRO HURTS THIS TEAM WITH NEGATIVE NET RUNS (-2.094 NRuns: -0.091 hitting, -1.501 fielding, -0.502 running)

See what happens, Wak, when you use a reliever for multiple innings?: Shawn Kelley (0.620 pitching NRuns)

That pitcher's pretty good, you should use him more: Zack Greinke (1.339 pitching NRuns)

They used to be Mariners:

Yuniesky Betancourt (-2.195 NRuns: -0.991 hitting, -1.204 fielding... the GOAT)
Jose Guillen (-1.606 hitting NRuns)

******

There was no way Ian Snell was going to pitch himself out of a demotion to the bullpen today, but despite his initial trouble he actually pitched very well in the early innings. Both back to back base hits that led off the game were on groundballs past Chone Figgins, and he got a strikeout and pop out with the bases loaded in that frame before a tapback to the mound got him out of it. Even the leadoff double in the 2nd came on a groundball, and none of his outcomes before the inning ending lineout in the 3rd were negative. Even the leadoff walk and wild pitch to start the 4th were negated by a strikeout, and his flyball that led to a triple was negated by a groundout.

It was only the Royals blasting off in his final 1.1 frames (three line drives and a walk) that brought his EXERA hurtling back to Earth like an armaggeddonic meteor. Though Snell will now work out of the bullpen with Cliff Lee back, he showed a ton of reasons today why the team keeps trying to work him into a better pitcher.

This was still a cheese grater of a win, and it took Milton Bradley and Franklin Gutierrez capitalizing with men on for the Mariners to pull ahead. One other positive is that Wak FINALLY used a reliever for multiple frames after a long stretch of one inning outings, as Shawn Kelley finished up the 6th for Snell, and then worked a 1-2-3 7th. See, Wak, it can work! Also, Kudos for actually using the otherwise disused Kelley. Shawn's velocity was down, but he also wasn't working consistently. Perhaps a rhythm of consistent outings can help him get back to form.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-14-2010 (Seattle 4, Oakland 2)

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, April 14, 2010
Seattle 4, Oakland 2
Park: Safeco Field
Run Expectancy: 0.505 runs per half inning

SEATTLE MARINERS

PosPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefRunning
9Ichiro Suzuki-0.076-0.2220.0000.1460.000
4Chone Figgins-0.1480.2050.000-0.3530.000
8Franklin Gutierrez2.7931.6620.0001.1310.000
5Jose Lopez1.0390.6360.0000.540-0.137
DHMilton Bradley-0.3930.3890.0000.000-0.782
7Eric Byrnes1.4270.2150.0001.2120.000
3Matt Tuiasosopo-1.205-1.2050.0000.0000.000
2Adam Moore0.3830.1660.0000.2170.000
6Jack Wilson-0.714-0.7140.0000.0000.000
SPJason Vargas0.6670.0000.921-0.2540.000
0SEA Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
MgrDon Wakamatsu-0.253-0.2530.0000.0000.000
RPBrandon League0.3060.000-0.3060.6120.000
RPDavid Aardsma0.2140.0000.2140.0000.000


Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.793 NRuns: 1.662 batting runs, 1.131 fielding runs)
Dishonorable Mention: Matt Tuiasosopo (-1.205 NRuns, all batting runs)

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

PosPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
8Rajai Davis0.428-0.8200.0001.2480.000
3Daric Barton-0.505-0.2880.0000.000-0.217
2Kurt Suzuki-0.663-0.3050.000-0.3580.000
5Kevin Kouzmanoff-0.240-0.2400.0000.0000.000
DHJake Fox0.9320.9320.0000.0000.000
4Adam Rosales0.579-0.1700.0000.7490.000
9Gabe Gross-0.888-0.7210.000-0.1670.000
7Eric Patterson-0.597-0.5740.000-0.0230.000
6Cliff Pennington-0.066-0.1420.0000.0760.000
SPGio Gonzalez-0.9110.000-1.4910.5800.000
0OAK Luckbox0.4910.0000.4910.0000.000
MgrBob Geren0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
RPChad Gaudin-0.3920.000-0.3920.0000.000
RPEdwar Ramirez-0.6730.000-0.6730.0000.000


Player of the Game: Jake Fox (0.932 NRuns, all batting since obviously he's the DH)
Dishonorable Mention: Gio Gonzalez (-0.911 NRuns on -1.491 pitching runs but 0.580 fielding runs)

This table explained:

- The above numbers indicate the net run expectancy added by each player as a hitter, pitcher, fielder or baserunner. Total Net Runs are listed in the first column.

The run expectancy on which these numbers are based is derived from a composite MLB average of 2005-2009, recent years weighed more heavily, and park adjusted to the home field.

Average is 0.000. Any positive number indicates runs above average, and any negative number indicates runs below average.

- You can estimate a pitcher's expected ERA for an outing by taking the run expectancy for the park and multiplying it by his innings pitched, then subtracting the pitcher's pitching Net Runs to get the number of runs that pitcher was expected to allow with his performance. Figure his Runs/9 accordingly and then multiply that by 0.927 to get his Expected ERA.

Jason Vargas' expected ERA, for example, is 2.93.

0.505 x 6 IP = 3.030 - 0.921 pitching NR prevented = 2.109 expected runs

2.109 ExpR in 6 IP = 3.164 ExpR/9 ----> 2.93 ExpERA

Vargas did allow two runs in the actual game, very close to his 2.109 Expected Runs. The defense picked up the tab on that additional 0.109 ExpR.

Expected ERAs for today's pitching:

Gio Gonzalez: 6.88
Chad Gaudin: 6.67
Edwar Ramirez: 7.02

Jason Vargas: 2.93
Brandon League: 5.49
David Aardsma: 2.43

- The Luckbox column indicate events beyond the team's control that benefited the team, such as errors and wild pitches.

- The managers are included for decisions such as sacrifice bunts and intentional walks, which in most cases take matters out of his players' hands but also influence the team's run expectancy.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Mariners notes from April 7 (Minnesota 6, Seattle 5)

- Well, the first 8.8 innings went pretty well :P

- Yuniesky Betancourt won't even be the great defender he was when he first came up in 2005. You can thank getting fat and happy off the mainland for that. But the leaping Superman catch he made to rob what looked like a sure base hit indicates he's at least close. Working out and dieting this offseason did him good.

- Don't be fooled by 11 runs in 2 games: the Mariners have had a lot of luck on grounders getting past the infield for hits. You can bet that once they get off the bouncy Metrodome FieldTurf that a lot of those grounders become easy outs, so more of those grounders need to become line drives or the M's are going to look more like last year's team at the plate.

- Franklin Gutierrez makes every play look routine. There were a couple flyballs that looked like extra bases, but after a few quick steps, Gut casually strolled to the spot and made what looked like an easy catch. I give the saberheads grief but they're not kidding about the guy's range: He's probably the best CF the M's have had since Mike Cameron. He can cover all of CF and parts of LF and RF if he wants. Hell, if you stuck him out there by himself, I'm not sure you could get a flyball with any lift by him unless you hit it down the line.

- What sucks for Brandon Morrow is that he put down the first two batters easily. But even then he never had much control of his fastball, and then once he decided to work away from the next batter (a lefty), he kept missing high and outside and it just got away from him. Such is the peril of sending a guy who spent spring training injured out there to close after only four innings of work. Does he lose control of his stuff if not so rusty? Can't say for certain, but chances aren't as likely.

Manager Don Wakamatsu and Rick Adair didn't want Morrow challenging the lefthanders inside, but really, once the control was gone, they should have just said screw the game plan and had him pound fastballs on the inner half. That fastball was around 97 (the FSN gun said 93-94 but others insist that was off) and with how it moves, it's often unhittable even when he throws it down the pike. By focusing on the outside part of the plate, Morrow just landed in the no man's land of zero control and couldn't get out. Throwing it down the middle is generally bad, but when you can't hit your spots and your stuff's generally tough to hit, I think you can make an exception in game-breaking circumstances.

- And enough about Brandon Morrow's diabetes. It had far less to do with the meltdown than being rusty did.

- Even after walking the bases loaded, the Mariners still get out of this with a win and a cheap save for Miguel Batista if Denard Span's bases loaded grounder hadn't take such a high, FieldTurf aided superbounce that left Adrian Beltre with no play. One hung breaking ball from Batista to Alexi Casilla later and that was that.