Net Runs Special, 4-17-2010: The Game You Thought Would Never End (NY Mets 2, St Louis 1, 20 innings)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
NYM	Johan Santana	1.621	-0.163	1.784	0.000	0.000
NYM	Rod Barajas	-0.768	-0.532	0.000	-0.236	0.000
NYM	Fernando Tatis	-0.512	-0.512	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Luis Castillo	0.682	-0.944	0.000	1.626	0.000
NYM	David Wright	-0.121	-0.453	0.000	0.431	-0.099
NYM	Jose Reyes	-0.836	-1.407	0.000	0.571	0.000
NYM	Jason Bay	0.140	-1.201	0.000	1.341	0.000
NYM	Angel Pagan	2.459	1.009	0.000	1.659	-0.209
NYM	Jeff Francoeur	-1.624	-1.776	0.000	0.152	0.000
NYM	NYM Luckbox	0.622	0.622	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Jerry Manuel	-0.912	-0.723	-0.189	0.000	0.000
NYM	Fernando Nieve	1.310	0.000	1.310	0.000	0.000
NYM	Henry Blanco	0.295	-0.557	0.000	0.852	0.000
NYM	John Maine	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Hisanori Takahashi	1.021	0.000	1.715	-0.694	0.000
NYM	Jonathon Niese	-0.093	-0.093	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Jenrry Mejia	0.146	0.000	0.146	0.000	0.000
NYM	Raul Valdes	-1.996	-0.511	-1.062	0.000	-0.423
NYM	Francisco Rodriguez	-1.142	0.000	-1.142	0.000	0.000
NYM	Mike Pelfrey	-0.004	0.000	-0.004	0.000	0.000
NYM	Frank Catalanotto	-0.093	-0.093	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Ryota Igarashi	0.234	0.000	0.234	0.000	0.000
NYM	Pedro Feliciano	0.248	0.000	0.248	0.000	0.000
NYM	Alex Cora	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Gary Matthews Jr	-0.307	-0.307	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYM	Mike Jacobs	0.401	0.401	0.000	0.000	0.000

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
STL	Jaime Garcia	0.727	-0.608	1.193	0.142	0.000
STL	Yadier Molina	0.243	0.144	0.000	0.099	0.000
STL	Albert Pujols	2.122	0.807	0.000	1.315	0.000
STL	Skip Schumaker	-0.757	-0.571	0.000	0.023	-0.209
STL	David Freese	0.167	-0.047	0.000	0.214	0.000
STL	Felipe Lopez	-0.785	-1.025	0.165	0.284	-0.209
STL	Matt Holliday	-1.113	-1.859	0.000	0.746	0.000
STL	Colby Rasmus	-1.050	-1.059	0.000	0.009	0.000
STL	Ryan Ludwick	-1.197	-0.951	0.000	0.870	-1.116
STL	STL Luckbox	0.425	0.425	0.000	0.000	0.000
STL	Tony LaRussa	-0.855	-0.070	-0.622	-0.163	0.000
STL	Trever Miller	0.231	0.000	-0.515	0.746	0.000
STL	Jason Motte	-0.518	-0.771	0.484	-0.231	0.000
STL	Dennys Reyes	0.281	0.000	0.281	0.000	0.000
STL	Blake Hawksworth	-0.615	-0.771	0.156	0.000	0.000
STL	Bryan Anderson	-0.481	-0.481	0.000	0.000	0.000
STL	Ryan Franklin	0.357	0.000	0.357	0.000	0.000
STL	Kyle Lohse	0.301	-0.307	0.000	0.608	0.000
STL	Kyle McClellan	0.690	0.000	0.690	0.000	0.000
STL	Nick Stavinoha	0.260	0.260	0.000	0.000	0.000
STL	Mitchell Boggs	0.114	0.000	0.114	0.000	0.000
STL	Allen Craig	-0.095	-0.438	0.000	0.552	-0.209
STL	Joe Mather	-0.993	-0.018	-1.369	0.394	0.000
STL	Brendan Ryan	-0.695	-0.654	0.000	-0.204	0.163

Expected ERAs for today's pitching performances:

Johan Santana: 1.94
Fernando Nieve: 0.00
Hisanori Takahashi: 0.00
Jenrry Mejia: 3.45
Raul Valdes: 8.49
Francisco Rodriguez: 13.59
Mike Pelfrey: 4.10
Ryota Igarashi: 2.60
Pedro Feliciano: 2.51

Jaime Garcia: 2.64
Trever Miller: 8.36
Jason Motte: 1.03
Dennys Reyes: 1.72
Blake Hawksworth: 3.51
Ryan Franklin: 1.08
Kyle McClellan: 1.18
Mitchell Boggs: 3.35
---
Felipe Lopez: 2.69
Joe Mather: 9.77

NYM Player of the Game: CF Angel Pagan (2.459 NRuns: 1.009 hitting, 1.659 fielding, -0.209 running)

STL Player of the Game: 1B Albert Pujols (2.122 NRuns: 0.807 hitting, 1.315 fielding)

NYM Goat: RP Raul Valdes (-1.996 NRuns: -0.511 hitting, -1.062 pitching, -0.423 running)

STL Goat: OF Ryan Ludwick (-1.197 NRuns: -0.951 hitting, 0.870 fielding, -1.116 running)

The Net Runs surprise from a game this long is that no player cost his team more than a run and change, while no player contributed more than 2 runs and change. This was also a rare game in that Busch Stadium itself had no impact on the run expectancy: No ball went over the fence, and only Albert Pujols' 19th inning double came close to the wall. Every bit of run expectancy was impacted between the lines and in full control of the participating teams.

... except when the managers meddled. Mets manager Jerry Manuel and Cards manager Tony LaRussa combined to leak away 1.767 runs through sacrifice bunts and intentional walks. Granted, in the end game some of the intentional walks were somewhat smart, done so to get to one of the many relief pitchers who were forced to bat with two outs for an easy out. But many of the sacrifices and free passes came with no or one out, and while things could have gone badly for either manager as a result, they did not until the 19th and 20th innings.

Oddly enough, Jerry Manuel held K-Rod until his team finally took the lead in the top 19th, only to watch K-Rod pitch atrociously and blow the save in the bottom 19th before escaping. The key to victory for the Mets, however, was the Cardinals bullpen running out of gas, and Tony LaRussa being forced to enlist position players Felipe Lopez and Joe Mather to pitch (which matched just fine with pitcher Kyle Lohse being forced into duty in left field... Lohse BTW actually did a decent job fielding in left).

Felipe Lopez actually pitched fairly well, but only threw a single inning, and Mather, left out there for two frames, pitched much, much more like a player who never pitches. Two free passes, a line drive and two sac flies later, the Mets had a lead they would not relinquish, and it was coincidentally another out of place player, #2 starter Mike Pelfrey, who came on and pitched a decent 20th for an oddball save he likely will never forget.

An educated guess about the NL East for 2009

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals

The NL East is easily the best NL division, with three playoff contenders ahead of two also-rans.

The Phillies are well on their way to repeating. Despite his subpar defense in LF, Raul Ibañez adds an impact bat to the lineup that improves even on the departed Pat Burrell’s. This is the best lineup in the NL, with Ibañez, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shave Victorino, and plenty of productive help around them. The pitching staff has an okay rotation and a solid bullpen, but the real strength is the defense, easily the best in the majors in terms of run prevention. Jayson Werth by himself is one of the best outfielders in baseball. Utley and Rollins are one of baseball’s best double play tandems, Pedro Feliz is an excellent defensive 3B and Raul is the only real weak spot. The Phillies are what the Red Sox are in the AL: a seemingly unbeatable force that’s arguably the best at scoring and preventing runs.

No team should match the Rays’ surprise run (whether or not the saberheads were really surprised), but one team that should rebound strong from a down year is the Atlanta Braves. Picking up Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez quickly makes the Braves rotation the best in the NL, placing them ahead of the emerging Jair Jurjjens, strike throwing Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami and whichever MLB-ready rookie they elect to throw in the #5 spot. Their offense should also score a lot of runs, as the Braves have quietly assembled a consistently productive lineup built around veteran Chipper Jones and top-shelf catcher Brian McCann. Nearly all of these hitters can hit for some power, and much of the lineup consistently gets on base. The defense is merely average, but the Braves should quietly take the Wildcard in a 90-95 win season the old fashioned way: With solid pitching and solid hitting.

Sadly, the big money NY Mets just don’t have what it takes to crack the playoffs this year. Save for the huge JJ Putz trade and signing K-Rod this offseason, they didn’t really add any talent. The lineup, while one of the league’s better lineups, is essentially the same lineup they had last season. K-Rod and JJ vastly upgrade an okay bullpen to an okay bullpen fronted by two great relievers. The next best arm is one of those other players acquired in the JJ trade, Sean Green. Overall, the pitching is among the best in the NL thanks to the bullpen pickups, but the defense is simply decent, the bottom of the lineup gets a bit thin and the Mets simply don’t have enough top-shelf oomph to oust the Phillies or outlast the soon-to-emerge Braves.

The Marlins manage to stay somewhat competitive despite no budget, no fanbase and a sadistic owner, but this season they simply won’t be in the hunt. This is a 65-70 win team that, despite some young stars and a talented, developing rotation, are hampered by a weak bullpen, a subpar offense and a subpar defense. Cameron Maybin is still a year or two away from becoming a star in the Hanley Ramirez mold. Both he and Ramirez are subpar defenders who will get away with it due to their bats. New 3B Emilio Bonifacio is still a couple years away, if he will indeed meet his potential. Jeremy Hermida and Cody Ross hit for power but only give you so much in the lineup, while Jorge Cantu is the most reliable bat outside of Ramirez. Godspeed, new stadium.

The Washington Nationals will definitely hang with the Marlins for 4th in the NL East, but no one’s wrong about the Nationals being bad. They actually have an average lineup between Ryan Zimmerman, a healthy Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young, newly acquired Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes, with help from Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard. They’ll score some runs. The defense is also average, rather than bad as many may think. But the big problem with the Nationals is what has to be far and away the worst pitching staff in the majors. John Lannan fronts a rag-tag bunch of kids and tomato cans, many whom would struggle to hold down the middle of most AAA staffs. Daniel Cabrera is finished, rookie Jordan Zimmerman’s going to get initiated and Scott Olsen has a gopherball problem. The Nationals should allow the most runs in the NL, and it’ll be mainly because of poor pitching.