2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Mountain West

Part 23 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

UNLV gets to host the Mountain West Tournament a little too often, having hosted eight of the last eleven Mountain West tourneys. Notice how UNLV frequently tends to win the Mountain West Tournament when they're hosting: All three of their Mountain West titles in the last 10 years (2000, 2007, 2008) came at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas, and two other times (2002, 2003) they reached the final only to lose the Championship and automatic NCAA Tournament bid in a tight game. UNLV did not win the Mountain West during the three non-Vegas tournaments in Denver, and only reached the final in 2004.

So the Runnin' Rebels have to be happy while the rest of the Mountain West has to be grating their teeth at yet another installment of the Mountain West Tournament at the Thomas and Mack. #3 UNLV is among the favorites to win it all at 3 to 1 (25.9%), but they're not the favorite.

That favorite, however, is not media darling New Mexico, the regular season Mountain West champ who has gotten a series of mainstream media mouthjobs from their 28-3 regular season, with talk that the Lobos might deserve a three seed. The Sagarin ratings disagree, rating them 22nd, which is around 5 seed territory. They can inch their way to a 4 seed with a run to the finals, but they are in fact a big underdog to two potential Final opponents.

One is UNLV, and the other is a familiar face among mid-major powers and the favorite to win: #2 BYU. Yes, they took a late season loss to the Lobos, but Sagarin still rates them 9th overall in the nation despite it, and the Mormon Cougars are a 3 to 2 favorite to win the Mountain West (42.3%). If BYU and the Lobos played ten more times on a neutral floor, BYU would probably win seven of those matchups.

The only other legitimate shot to win is Steve Fisher's #4 San Diego State Aztecs at 7 to 1. Don't consider that a ringing endorsement: They probably win their opening game against #5 Colorado State and then face the underdog life against #1 New Mexico (45.7%), let alone underdog odds against likely Final opponents BYU (26.5%) and UNLV (32.8%). If the Lobos send the Aztecs home, SDSU needs to cross their fingers that they looked good enough (and other teams looked bad enough) to sneak into the NCAA Tournament. Right now the 20-8 Aztecs are on the wrong end of the bubble and could really use a big (and do-able) upset against the Lobos.

But then again, SDSU made the final of last year's tournament and missed the dance despite a stronger rating than they have this year (though they parlayed that denial into a trip to the NIT Final Four at MSG). However, upsets in othe conference tourneys and a decent at-large field sunk the Aztecs' at-large hopes in 2009, while a consensus weak field of at-large teams overall and a relative lack of upsets by outsiders could play to their benefit in 2010... if SDSU can repeat last year's run and pull a big upset. Of course, the Aztecs could also just win the tournament, but that's a hardway bet at best.

Here are the Mountain West odds for every team involved:

1. New Mexico: 4.3 to 1 (18.8%)
2. BYU: 3 to 2 (42.3%)
3. UNLV: 2.9 to 1 (25.9%)
4. San Diego State: 7.3 to 1
5. Colorado State: 314.7 to 1
6. Utah: 232.2 to 1
7. TCU: 1118 to 1
8. Wyoming: 3570.5 to 1
9. Air Force: 16753.8 to 1

Next: The Pac-10

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Conference USA

Part 22 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

UTEP has completed one of their best regular seasons in years with a 24-5 record that has them ranked 34th in the Sagarin ratings, planted on the front end of the NCAA Tournament bubble. That's the good news.

The bad news is that it's not only going to be hard for UTEP to win the Conference USA tournament even though they're a 5 to 2 favorite (27.3%), but there's no way they can take a loss without doing damage to their ratings, as they are technically favored in every single possible matchup the tournament could give them. However, several of those matchups are in doubt: #2 seed Memphis (3 to 1), on the decline following coach John Calipari's departure, has a 48.6% chance to beat the Miners if they meet in the final. #3 UAB (11 to 2), reborn under reborn head coach Mike Davis (he who crashed and burned under pressure with Indiana a few years ago), would have a 40.4% chance vs UTEP in the final.

UTEP could run into trouble before the final. #5 Tulsa (9 to 2) is hosting the tournament and could meet UTEP in the semis with a 49% chance to win. Even if #4 Marshall holds serve, the Thundering Herd are a 37.8% shot to knock off UTEP.

The Miners are (appropriately?) facing a minefield after the quarters, and a loss to any of the possible danger teams could jeopardize their at-large tournament hopes. There isn't a scenario where UTEP can get knocked off and safely get in at-large that doesn't involve several bubble teams in other conferences falling apart while top seeds all hold serve to win their respective conference tournaments.

And of course none of the aforementioned teams are seriously in the hunt for at-large bids. All are easy NIT picks, though. The closest of the bunch to the bubble, Memphis, is favored in any matchup before the final and only a slight dog versus a couple of possible Final opponents. There is not a realistic scenario where the Tigers can lose and sneak in at-large. To get in, they have to win out. But at 3 to 1, they have a good shot to do so, much better than UTEP at 5 to 2 may want to admit. With UAB and Tulsa right behind them, there are several likely suspects contending for the Conference USA title, and no one really stands out.

Here are the Conference USA odds for every team involved:

1. UTEP: 2.7 to 1 (27.3%)
2. Memphis: 3 to 1 (25.0%)
3. UAB: 5.6 to 1
4. Marshall: 10.6 to 1
5. Tulsa: 4.6 to 1
6. Southern Miss: 44.7 to 1
7. Houston: 33 to 1
8. SMU: 144.8 to 1
9. Central Florida: 647.5 to 1
10. East Carolina: 6510.4 to 1
11. Tulane: 2744.5 to 1
12. Rice: 16241.7 to 1

Next: The Mountain West

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big West

Part 21 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

The Big West, like the Big East, took a page from the West Coast Conference and gave their top seeds a double bye (no complaints from UC Santa Barbara's coach as of yet). #1 UC Santa Barbara and #2 Pacific won't have to play until the semifinals of the Big West tourney in Anaheim, while #3 Long Beach State and #4 UC Davis get a free ride into the quarters as the remaining #5 to #8 seeds get to duke it out in the opening round. As expected, the double bye makes the top two seeds an easy favorite, Pacific ahead at 6 to 5 (47.5%) with the Gauchos behind them at 14 to 5 (26.2%).

From there, only #3 Long Beach State has a decent shot at 5 to 1. Everyone else is facing longshot odds to get over, and that's fine. Pacific representing the Big West in the NCAA's yet again is good for the Big West, especially if they can spike an upset and sneak out of the dance with a win. The conference's participation in the Bracket Buster weekend was a big step forward despite a down year for most of the conference (only UCSB and Pacific had winning records overall), and sending a strong representative would be yet another step forward.

Here are the Big West odds for everyone involved.

1. UC Santa Barbara: 2.8 to 1 (26.2%)
2. Pacific: 6 to 5 (47.5%)
3. Long Beach State: 4.9 to 1
4. UC Davis: 34 to 1
5. CS Fullerton: 14.9 to 1
6. Cal Poly SLO: 157.8 to 1
7. UC Irvine: 182.3 to 1
8. CS Northridge: 119 to 1

Next: Conference USA

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big 12 Conference

Part 20 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

With six legit top 20 teams (whether they poll that way or not) and probably seven legit at-large teams, the Big 12 is one of college basketball's best power conferences this fractured season, and you'd expect their 12 team tournament to be a beat-down titanic barnburner of a dogfight once we get to the semis.

Except the Kansas Jayhawks are probably at this point the #1 team in the country (sorry, Syracuse) and are easily the best team in a loaded Big 12, which makes them an even shot (51.2%) to win the Big 12 tournament. If not for them, the above paragraph might be true, but as it stands they're probably playing for 2nd place and hopefully a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can't topple the Jayhawks. Top dark horses include #2 Kansas State (5 to 1), amidst one of their best seasons in a while, and #6 Texas (9 to 1), still one of the best teams in the country but suffered a bit of the dumps in Big 12 Conference play and landed themselves a relatively crappy 6 seed. The funny thing for the Longhorns is that if they can thread the needle through a winnable tournament stretch and make the finals, they can probably notch a 3 seed in the NCAAs... yes, despite being a 6 seed in the Big 12 Tourney.

Everyone else falls back in the pack. #4 Baylor's probably the 3rd best team in the conference but is an 11 to 1 shot to win it. A semifinal loss to superior K-State is likely, and not exactly a scarlet letter on Baylor's resume. They too could warrant a 3 seed in the NCAAs if Texas doesn't. Texas A&M has an argument for the same, but chances that they take a quarterfinal or semifinal loss is fairly likely, and probably drops them back even though the loss would likely come to a superior team (Missouri and Kansas are the suspects). It'd be hard for the committee to give A&M a 3 seed if they take a quarterfinal conference tourney loss, even to a higher seed in A&M. A 4 or 5 is more realistic unless the Aggies thread the needle and at least reach the semis. They are 19 to 1 to win it all so don't hope too hard.

#5 Missouri is a likely 5 seed in the NCAAs as well, and will be hard pressed to down a pesky #12 in Nebraska AND win a tough matchup with Baylor in the quarters. The Tigers are 12 to 1 to win the tourney so don't hold your breath there.

#7 Oklahoma State is on the good side of the bubble, and running a 21-9 record in this tough conference certainly helps. What would also help is holding serve with a 1st round win over #10 Oklahoma and then putting forth an admirable effort in quarterfinal defeat against K-State. One Big 12 Tourney win should be enough for the Cowboys, and scoring the upset to reach the semis certainly will, let alone the 64 to 1 shot that they win the thing. Take comfort, bubble mongers, that Oklahoma State probably isn't ruining anyone's season by winning the Big 12 tourney because they're probably in otherwise anyway.

Here are the Big 12 odds for every team involved:

1. Kansas: Even (51.2%)
2. Kansas State: 5.3 to 1
3. Baylor: 11.2 to 1
4. Texas A&M: 19 to 1
5. Missouri: 12.4 to 1
6. Texas: 9 to 1
7. Oklahoma State: 63.9 to 1
8. Colorado: 612.4 to 1
9. Texas Tech: 593.6 to 1
10. Oklahoma: 1289.6 to 1
11. Iowa State: 580.5 to 1
12. Nebraska: 2001.1 to 1

Next: The Big West

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big East

Part 19 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Our first power conference tournament is the biggest we've seen yet at 16 teams, with five Top 25 ranked teams and as many as 8-9 teams with a real case for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. Not only is it the biggest and best tournament to date, but it's also arguably the most competitive, and even the favorites will be hard pressed to come out of it alive.

Instead of a conventional 16 team format, the Big East takes a page from the WCC and stepladders their tournament format, giving the top four seeds byes into the quarterfinals while making the 9-16 seeds play each other for the right to face the 5-8 seeds in another qualifying round before the quarters. This protects the top seeds and makes the lower seeds work harder to win the tournament. Take a look at the bracket format here.

Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim complains about receiving a double bye, though that double bye helps make the #1 seeded Orange the favorite at 12 to 5 (29.8%). Right on their heels is #3 West Virginia at around 5 to 2 (26.9%), and a ways back is dark horse #4 Villanova at 6 to 1. Longer shots with the best odds from there are #2 Pittsburgh (11 to 1), #8 Georgetown (14 to 1) and #5 Marquette (18 to 1).

The two teams on the bubble with a real shot of getting in are #7 Notre Dame and #10 Seton Hall. The Irish will have a challenging 2nd round game with either #15 Providence or... Seton Hall. If the Pirates get past Providence, their matchup with Notre Dame could be an elimination game in more ways than one. Obviously, if either team does not get to the quarters, it's probably game over for their at-large tournament chances.

From there, the winner of that early series is definitely an underdog to #2 Pittsburgh in the quarters and wouldn't hurt their chances with a competitive loss... but both have significant chances to win (Notre Dame at 41.1% and Seton Hall at 38.5%), and a win would boost that team's profile enough that as long as their eventual exit isn't embarrassing, said team should have enough pump to their resume to sneak in if they pull a quarterfinal upset. Without it, they could have enough but it depends on how the other bubble teams shake out.

UConn, amidst one of their worst seasons in a couple decades, is 50th in the Sagarin ratings and technically close, but at 17-14 and stumbling down the stretch it's unlikely they can coax at at-large bid from a couple of tourney wins. Rated 58, Cincinnati's been down for a while, and a 16-14 record's probably keeping them out.

The long shots are, as you'd expect, the longest shots we've seen to date, having to pull five upsets against some of the best teams in the country to get a tournament bid. #14 Rutgers faces the impossible at 53922 to 1, but they're not even the longest shot in the tournament. #16 DePaul is 86934 to 1 to win the tournament. To illustrate, let's enlist Funny2.com's help:

Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065
Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524
Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1
Odds of having your identity stolen: 200 to 1
Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1
Odds of being killed sometime in the next year in any sort of transportation accident: 77 to 1
Chance that DePaul's entire roster avoids death via transport in 2010: 83.4%
Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1
Odds of bowling a 300 game: 11,500 to 1
Odds of DePaul winning the 2010 Big East Men's Basketball Tournament: 86,934 to 1

Sad that DePaul's starting point guard has a better chance of having his identity swiped, bowling a 300 game, getting possessed by Satan, dying in a terrible accident or getting burned up with a bottle rocket than he does of winning the Big East Tournament.

Here are the Big East odds for every team involved:

1. Syracuse: 2.4 to 1 (29.8%)
2. Pittsburgh: 10.9 to 1
3. West Virginia: 2.7 to 1 (26.9%)
4. Villanova: 6.1 to 1
5. Marquette: 17.7 to 1
6. Louisville: 22.5 to 1
7. Notre Dame: 48.6 to 1
8. Georgetown: 14.3 to 1
9. South Florida: 513.7 to 1
10. Seton Hall: 118.8 to 1
11. Cincinnati: 186.8 to 1
12. Connecticut: 108.9 to 1
13. St John's: 1113.6 to 1
14. Rutgers: 53921.8 to 1
15. Providence: 753.5 to 1
16. DePaul: 86394 to 1

Next: The Big 12... and a lot more, as Championship Week picks up steam.

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Atlantic 10 (A-10)

Part 18 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

In what's allegedly a down year for top teams in NCAA Division I, the A-10, on the cusp between mid-major and major status, has three teams (Xavier, Temple and Richmond) with legitimate claims for at-large NCAA Tournament bids, while three more (Dayton, Rhode Island, Charlotte) have claims for NIT spots. Most of the rest of the conference can at least put up a good fight against top teams, and the hands-down worst team in the conference, Fordham, did not qualify for the A-10's 12 team conference tournament at fabled Madison Square Garden in NYC.

This is a challenging tournament field, and the top teams, even with first round byes, won't have an easy road to the A-10 title. There is no distinct favorite, simply a multi-tiered horse race in terms of odds.

Top seeds Temple and Xavier are each 11 to 5 shots to win: Temple at 30.8% and Xavier at 31.0%.

Behind then are 6 to 1 shot Richmond at the #3 seed, with #7 Dayton (10 to 1) and #5 Rhode Island (12 to 1) not too far behind. From there, everyone else is a longshot to win, from 28 to 1 #4 Saint Louis all the way to 2700 to 1 #11 UMass.

Even the quarterfinal round is going to prove a tough challenge for the top seeds. #2 Xavier is only a 63.7% favorite to win their opening game should they face #7 Dayton (typically a top seed's first matchup gives them around a 75-85% chance to win), and a likely semifinal matchup with #3 Richmond leaves them with a 65.9% chance to win. However, the Musketeers would be favorites in any possible finals matchup, and if the opponent isn't Temple then they are likely big favorites, no less than 73% to win (and that's if they face Rhode Island). If they can bypass two 2 to 1 shots of losing to reach the final, the A-10 Title and an automatic NCAA Tournament spot (along with possibly a 3 seed) is within easy reach.

Temple has the same odds to win the A-10 as Xavier, but for different reasons. They are easy favorites in their first two rounds, but the potential matchups in the final would cause them trouble. The Owls would actually be underdogs to Xavier (42.3%), while only slight favorites against Richmond (58.6%) or Dayton (56.2%). Even #5 Charlotte has a 3 to 1 shot (24.2%) to steal the title from Temple if the 49ers reach the final.

Richmond is on the high end of the NCAA Tournament bubble, and though some highly ranked teams have clinched automatic bids, which opens up at-large bids at the bottom and improves their chances, they need to be careful not to let their 35-40ish rank drop with a bad tourney loss. Aside from winning the A-10 tourney outright, their best bet is to win their quarterfinal game and at the least take a close loss in the semis... unless in the unlikely event that #10 George Washington is their semifinal opponent in which case the Spiders had better win. Making the final would boost Richmond's rating and profile, but ironically making the final and then losing would similarly damage their at-large chances and likely undo the boost of their semifinal upset because they would be favored over most of their possible opponents. The exception comes if they get to face #1 Temple and can lose that game without getting blown out.

Dayton's a bit too far from the bubble to have a real shot (Sagarin ranks them at 53, and the bubble usually bursts around the low 40's). Upsetting #2 Xavier in the quarters and then winning their semifinal game to reach the final could get them in at-large if they run into #1 Temple in the final and take a competitive loss. But otherwise, their only other hope of the NCAAs is to hit their 10 to 1 ticket and win the A-10 tourney outright.

Here are the A-10 odds for every team involved.

1. Temple: 11 to 5 (30.8%)
2. Xavier: 11 to 5 (31.0%)
3. Richmond: 6 to 1
4. Saint Louis: 27.6 to 1
5. Rhode Island: 11.8 to 1
6. Charlotte: 50.4 to 1
7. Dayton: 9.6 to 1
8. St Bonaventure: 162.1 to 1
9. Duquesne: 298 to 1
10. George Washington: 455 to 1
11. Massachusetts: 2706.4 to 1
12. St Joseph's: 2060.8 to 1

Who would I put money on? Nobody. Given posted future odds (via The Spread) and the odds of winning I posted above, the expected value of every possible pick is negative.

Next: Our first major conference tournament of 2010... The Big East!

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Mid Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

Part 17 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Morgan State has been the best team in a weak MEAC for quite some time and things are no different as this 11 team tournament kicks off. Morgan State is a 6 to 5 favorite (44.6%) to win, and no one's individually more than a dark horse to catch them.

If anyone's going to knock off Morgan State, the likeliest suspects are #5 Hampton (11 to 2), #3 South Carolina State (13 to 2) and #2 Delaware State (over 8 to 1). North Carolina A&T gets a boost from the tournament's Winston-Salem base being close to Greensboro, but is still almost a 15 to 1 shot as the #9 seed. Everyone else is basically a long shot.

Here are the MEAC odds for every team involved:

1. Morgan State: 6 to 5 (44.6%)
2. Delaware State: 8.4 to 1
3. SC State: 6.4 to 1
4. Norfolk State: 23.7 to 1
5. Hampton: 5.6 to 1
6. UMES: 146.8 to 1
7. Bethune Cookman: 23.3 to 1
8. Howard: 1414.4 to 1
9. NC A&T: 14.6 to 1
10. Florida A&M: 542.8 to 1
11. Coppin State: 164 to 1

Next: We start getting into the big mid-majors and power conferences, as we take a look at The Atlantic 10.

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Mid American Conference (MAC)

Part 16 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

The MAC, once a mid-major hotbed for college basketball, fell on hard times this season and their best team in 2010, Kent State, might make the low rungs of the NIT at-large. The conference as a whole is average in strength compared to all 32 conferences, and their worst teams (Northern Illinois, Toledo) could get beat by many of the weakest conferences' average teams.

That said, Kent State is a mild favorite (34.7%) in a ho-hum but somewhat competitive 12 team MAC tournament field. Central Michigan, probably the 7th best team in the conference, snuck their way to a #2 seed plus a 1st round bye and is still a 19 to 1 shot. #3 Akron (21.6%) is probably the next best shot to win this thing. Don't be terribly shocked if Kent or Akron doesn't win it, though. It's sort of a toss-up as to who would usurp them both, but in this field it's entirely possible one or both teams go down. Likely suspects include #4 Miami-Ohio, #7 Western Michigan and #9 Ohio U.

Toledo has a better chance of finding God in a strip club and convincing him to deliver world peace to mankind than they do of winning this tournament. Getting out of the opening round versus Buffalo (13.5 to 1) would require a bit of divine intervention as well.

Here are the MAC odds for every team involved.

1. Kent State: 1.9 to 1 (34.7%)
2. Central Michigan: 19.1 to 1
3. Akron: 7 to 2 (21.6%)
4. Miami-Ohio: 9 to 1
5. Buffalo: 15.6 to 1
6. Eastern Michigan: 31 to 1
7. Western Michigan: 9.1 to 1
8. Ball State: 228.2 to 1
9. Ohio University: 10.9 to 1
10. Bowling Green: 152.2 to 1
11. Northern Illinois: 440.8 to 1
12. Toledo: 23368.3 to 1

Next: The Mid Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Sun Belt

Part 15 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Here, folks, is a truly wide open tournament. It's not the sizable 14 team field that makes the Sun Belt Tournament competitive, or being located at truly neutral Hot Springs, Arkansas, but the conference's relative parity combined with the two best teams not receiving one of the tournament's three first round byes makes this a wide open tournament.

The favorite, Western Kentucky, is a 13 to 5 shot (27.6% actually), so relatively dim because as the #4 seed they need to beat bottom seeded New Orleans in the opening round to get to the quarters, and while WKU is assured of being favored in any possible game, they are not locks, with every opponent having at least a 15-25% shot of knocking them off. Since WKU has to win four games to take the Sun Belt, that's a lot of opportunities for an upset by conference foes that can put up a fight.

The best shot out of the other side of the bracket is actually #7 Louisiana-Lafayette at around 4 to 1 (19.6%), not so much because they're favored in their side of the bracket, but they would be favored in almost any possible matchup in the final. Even against Western Kentucky they're not much of an underdog: At 48.6% to win it's basically a coin flip anyway.

The top three seeds that all received byes are, believe it or not, relative dark horses at best to win. While they had strong conference records, they're not quite the strongest teams in the conference and would be underdogs in far too many matchups. Top seeded Troy is, at 8 to 1, the longest shot to win of any top seed we've seen to date. #2 North Texas is similarly dim at 9 to 1. #3 Middle Tennessee has a better shot at a little over 5 to 1. But these first round byes defy the notion that the bye makes you a favorite, simply because the conference records belie the actual strength of the teams holding them.

Here are the Sun Belt odds for every team involved:

1. Troy: 8.3 to 1
2. North Texas: 9.0 to 1
3. Middle Tennessee: 5.2 to 1
4. Western Kentucky: 13 to 5 (27.6%)
5. Arkansas State: 22.4 to 1
6. Denver: 17.3 to 1
7. LA Lafayette: 4.1 to 1 (19.6%)
8. Florida Atlantic: 22.5 to 1
9. South Alabama: 102.6 to 1
10. LA Monroe: 673.5 to 1
11. Florida International: 1046.6 to 1
12. Ark Little Rock: 295.7 to 1
13. New Orleans: 1400.6 to 1

Next: The Mid American Conference (MAC)

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Summit League

Part 14 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Ron Hunter has been IUPUI's coach for 14 seasons and led the Jaguars to their only NCAA Tournament appearance in 2003. He has a strong chance of leading IUPUI to their 2nd: His Jaguars are the favorite in the Summit League's straight-forward eight team tourney at 36.4%.

IUPUI's got company up front, though, so they're no lock. Top seed Oakland obviously has a decent shot (22.9%) while #3 Oral Roberts (20.3%) is in the hunt despite a down year. #4 South Dakota State is hosting and they're a dark horse at around 11 to 2. The rest of the field is a longshot, but if the high seeds hold serve, it's going to be an entertaining dogfight from the Semis on.

Here are the Summit League odds for every team involved:

1. Oakland: 3.4 to 1 (22.9%)
2. IUPUI: 9 to 5 (36.4%)
3. Oral Roberts: 3.9 to 1 (20.3%)
4. South Dakota State: 5.4 to 1
5. IPFW: 42.5 to 1
6. North Dakota State: 65.7 to 1
7. Western Illinois: 168.9 to 1
8. UMKC: 202.4 to 1

Next: The Sun Belt Conference

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big Sky

Part 13 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

The Big Sky wisely culls their tournament field to a relatively paltry six teams, eliminating three conference also-rans (Eastern Washington, Idaho State and Sacramento State) and cutting the crap while quickly determining their tournament champion.

However, while their method of re-seeding the teams before the semis is competitively sound, it seriously complicates my efforts to project a winner. Composing a Markov chain of possible tournament matchups is one thing in a static bracket, but when the bracket fluctuates based on which combination of teams wins the opening round games, it requires Markov chains on top of Markov chains and convolutes the process.

Fortunately for Weber State, their tournament scenario isn't convoluted at all. They not only are easily the best team in this field and the top seed, earning a bye to the semis along with #2 Northern Colorado, but the tournament's also being held right in their backyard in Ogden, giving them an even greater advantage. That makes them an odds-on favorite to win. Plus, even with the pared down field, the relatively elite group still isn't all that tough a challenge, with only much improved Northern Colorado and Montana having a remote possibility to win this tournament.

Montana State or Portland State could thread the needle with a lot of luck, but Northern Arizona hasn't much more than a shot in hell of taking this. This is Weber State's tournament to lose.

Here are the Big Sky odds for every team involved:

1. Weber State: 52.9%
2. Northern Colorado: 7 to 2 (21.6%)
3. Montana State: 20 to 1
4. Montana: 5.2 to 1
5. Northern Arizona: 272.7 to 1
6. Portland State: 48.8 to 1

Next: The Summit League

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: West Coast Conference

Part 12 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

As you see above, the West Coast Conference tournament has a weird and wonky four round, 8-team tourney format that actually seems a lot more fair than the conventional single-elimination formats when you think about it.

It's formatted like a stepladder: The 5-8 seeds have to win four games to win the tournament, whereas the 3-4 seeds only have to win three and the top two seeds only have to win two. In round one, 5 plays 8 and 6 plays 7. The 5-8 winner get #4 and the 6-7 winner gets #3 in the next round. The winner of #4's game gets #1 in the Semis while the winner of #3's game gets #2, and then the tourney proceeds as usual from there. You can look at the format here.

This format rewards teams that earned the best records in the conference while forcing lesser teams to do more to win, instead of giving everyone a level playing field and giving the worst team in the conference a chance to win their way in with roughly as many games as the #1 team. The WCC format places a premium on regular season in-conference performance, something many feel has an increasingly diminishing significance in the tournament era.

This format also allows a conference to stretch an 8 team tournament out over four days, with three consecutive days of doubleheaders before a title game, compared to cramming in four quarterfinal games in the first day, or staggering the quarterfinal games over two days and then giving someone an extra day of rest that could prove an advantage in the semis or finals.

I actually think more conferences should utilize the WCC's sort of format. It was clearly designed in part to give their best team (Gonzaga) an easy road to the NCAA's and bolster the Zags' potential NCAA Tourney seeding by minimizing the chances of an upset to a weaker WCC team. But it may be a worthwhile format for smaller conferences looking to send their best teams to the NCAA's and/or better reward those with the best conference records, while allowing the conference to run a full four day slate of games that can sell additional tickets and net additional media coverage.

Now, I can see why some major and mid-major conferences would not want to give their top seeds this advantage or their lower seeds this disadvantage. In the case of every major conference and some mid-majors, it's to their advantage for a lesser team to pull an upset and win the conference tournament, as it typically gives the conference an extra NCAA Tournament bid.

See, several teams in these conferences are rated highly enough to get in at-large, and don't need to win the tournament. But these conferences also have several teams out of contention that certainly won't get in at-large, and to get any of those teams in through winning the conference tournament is a bonus to the conference, leading to extra exposure and undoubtedly extra money for the conference and schools.

I won't go as far as to say that conferences will have their leading teams take a dive or have officials dive qualified teams with biased officiating to Grand-Chawhee an extra team in. But I attest that it's to their long-term advantage to get as many of their teams into the NCAAs as possible, and thus it's to their advantage to give the lesser teams the best chance possible to win out and earn the automatic bid. So while the WCC format is better for rewarding top conference teams and maiximizing their NCAA Tourney hopes, it's unlikely we'll see major and mid-major conferences adopt it for the reasons stated. The predominant format's straight-forwardness best allows for upsets.

Now... the 2010 tournament. For the second straight year, the modest Orleans Arena in Las Vegas hosts the tourney, making the court totally neutral. You would think Gonzaga is the favorite as the #1 seed has a bye into the Semis, but the combo of possible matchups actually suits #2 St Mary's-CA better (49.6%). Despite the loss of 2009 star Paddy Mills, #2 seed St Mary's-CA not only hasn't missed a beat but may have gotten better. However, it's probably best to say they need to win the whole thing if they want into the NCAAs: They can't lose in a likely final to Gonzaga without taking a ratings hit that likely leaves them on the wrong end of the bubble.

Beyond that, everyone else is as expected a longshot. The closest shot is #4 Portland at 9 to 1. Also, Gonzaga can retain their at-large chances with a finals loss to St Mary's, but don't believe the Bracketology hype about them netting a 4 or 5 seed. Their ratings currently project them in the 8-ish seed range.

1. Gonzaga: 8 to 5 (37.8%)
2. St Mary's-CA: Even (49.6%)
3. San Francisco: 131.4 to 1
4. Portland: 9.1 to 1
5. Loyola Marymount: 159.4 to 1
6. San Diego: 208.6 to 1
7. Santa Clara: 2135.1 to 1
8. Pepperdine: 21581.8 to 1

Just for fun, I ran the odds in a hypothetical scenario where the WCC plays a conventional 8 team bracket (1 vs 8, 4 vs 5, 3 vs 6, 2 vs 7), with four quarterfinal games, the winners meeting in the Semis and then a Final. Here's how the odds would have changed:

1. Gonzaga: 8 to 5 (38.8%)
2. St Mary's-CA: 6 to 5 (46.8%)
3. San Francisco: 104.2 to 1
4. Portland: 7.9 to 1
5. Loyola Marymount: 110.5 to 1
6. San Diego: 94.6 to 1
7. Santa Clara: 415.7 to 1
8. Pepperdine: 2118.8 to 1

Notice St Mary's odds go down and Gonzaga's stays flat while everyone else's goes up. Instead of the top two needing two wins to take the title and the bottom four needing four wins, everyone simply needs to win three, which changes the scope completely. That's an illustration of the advantage the byes of the current format give the #1 and #2 seeds.

Next: The Big Sky

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Southern Conference

Part 11 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Last year, Davidson had a huge advantage with talented Stephen Curry. With Curry gone, they faltered to a 14-14 record, but enter the Southern Conference tournament with a new advantage: The tourney is taking place in Charlotte, just about 10-15 miles down the road from Davidson, giving the middling 2010 Wildcats home court advantage. This takes them from 2nd tier longshots onto a relatively crowded list of serious competitors for the Southern Conference's NCAA Tournament bid.

The Southern Conference is the first conference we see that divides their conference into two divisions. As a result, participating teams are seeded separately by conference:

North Division seeds:

1. Appalachian State
2. Western Carolina
3. Chattanooga
4. NC Greensboro
5. Samford
6. Elon

South Division seeds:

1. Wofford
2. College of Charleston
3. Davidson
4. The Citadel
5. Furman
6. Georgia Southern

The top two seeds from each division get byes from the opening round, while each division's #3 seed plays the #4 of the other, and each division's #5 plays the other division's #6. The winner of those games face the aforementioned top seeds, and everyone plays down as usual to a champion. Here are the brackets to help you make sense of it if needed.

Wofford, the best team in the Southern Conference, is the #1 South seed and the favorite to win at 9 to 5 (36.1%). Five teams have a realistic shot at winning this tournament, and as you'd expect four of them are 1st round bye recipients: Wofford, #1-N Appalachian State (15.8%), #2-S College of Charleston (12.4%) and #2-N Western Carolina (9.8%). The 5th, go figure, are the kids from down the street at #3-S Davidson (16.8%). This tournament could well become a dogfight to the finish between roughly equal teams once it gets down to the Semis and play moves from the smaller Bojangles Coliseum, down the street to the larger Time Warner Arena.

Here are the Southern Tournament Odds for every team involved:

Southern seeds:

1. Wofford: 9 to 5 (36.1%)
2. College of Charleston: 7.1 to 1
3. Davidson: 4.9 to 1
4. The Citadel: 28.7 to 1
5. Furman: 149.4 to 1
6. Georgia Southern: 2078 to 1

Northern seeds:

1. Appalachian State: 5.3 to 1
2. Western Carolina: 9.2 to 1
3. Chattanooga: 256.1 to 1
4. NC Greensboro: 265.4 to 1
5. Samford: 130.1 to 1
6. Elon: 1892.9 to 1

Next: The West Coast Conference

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Part 9 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Bad news for anyone in the Metro Atlantic who isn't Siena: The Conference tournament is being held in Albany, NY, just a short drive down the road from Siena's Loudonville home base. This gives the top seed, who already had a sizable advantage over the 10 team field, an even bigger advantage and turns this tournament into a likely walkover.

Siena, 24-6 and rated 55th in current Sagarin ratings, is probably not an at-large NCAA Tournament team and is probably a 12-13 seed should they win out. But they shouldn't have to worry about winning this thing: Their toughest potential opponent is #6 Iona, and Siena's still a 79.8% favorite in that game. They are at least a 90% favorite vs all but three other teams. They have a massive 74.8% chance of winning this tournament, and only a colossal choke job on their part would cost them a destined NCAA Tournament seat.

Here are the Metro Atlantic Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Siena: 74.8%
2. Fairfield: 9.0 to 1
3. Niagara: 18.3 to 1
4. St Peter's: 24.5 to 1
5. Rider: 58.8 to 1
6. Iona: 9.3 to 1
7. Canisius: 76.8 to 1
8. Loyola-MD: 152.5 to 1
9. Manhattan: 184.5 to 1
10. Marist: 42764.4 to 1

At nearly 43000 to 1, Marist (1-28) is the longest shot we've seen to date. That's roughly the odds of a golfer making a hole in one where the cup's within reach of his/her tee shot (those odds BTW are 42952 to 1).

Next: The Southern Conference

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Colonial Athletic Association

Part 9 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

The conference that produced George Mason's famous 2005-2006 NCAA Tournament run may produce a new mid-major powerhouse.

The Colonial Athletic Association's new darling isn't Mason, however. Jim Larranaga is still the coach but this year's 17-13 Mason squad is a far cry from the squad that snuck into the Final Four four years ago, and is in fact the longest shot to make the CAA 2010 finals of the top seven seeds, despite being the #4 seed and receiving a 1st round bye.

The CAA's new power team is a team that once was a basketball power... women's basketball, that is. Old Dominion's men's team has historically been a far cry from the dominant ODU women's squads of the past 20 years, but this year's Sagarin rating has the ODU men rated 43rd in the midst of a strong 23-8 season. 43rd could warrant an at-large slot in a weak Division I field if ODU doesn't slip and suffer an upset to a lesser foe. However, being the conference's best means there aren't any teams ODU can afford to lose to in the CAA Tournament without hurting their rankings... except for one.

Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) is probably the 2nd strongest team in the CAA despite landing the #5 seed in conference play. But they come into the tournament with the home court bonus, as the CAA Tourney's being held in their hometown of Richmond, VA. By being able to take a quick ride up the street instead of a bus ride from a hotel, they'll have the freshness and comfort advantage. ODU can get in at-large provided their loss is a close loss in a semifinal matchup with VCU, the only possible game in which they wouldn't be favored to win. Lose in any other game, and ODU is NIT bound.

Still, ODU is a strong 2 to 1 shot to win, but thanks to VCU's home court advantage they are not the favorite: VCU at 3 to 2 is the favorite to win, and would be favored in any possible game they could play.

Now, beyond that interplay of favorites, only two other CAA teams are anything other than an extreme longshot to win this thing: #2 Northeastern is a dim 11 to 2 (15.4%) while one of William & Mary's better squads in recent decades (19-9 and the #3 seed) is still around 15 to 1 (6.4%) to win.

Nobody else is closer than #7 Hofstra's 51 to 1. That once proud George Mason team? The Krptonite's half life has expired and their #4 seeded squad is actually a 120 to 1 shot: They're more of a middle of the pack CAA team this year, and with VCU probably waiting for them in the quarters as well as ODU in the semis, it's game over unless they relive some of that 2006 magic.

For fun, here is #12 seed and 13200 to 1 shot Delaware's chances of...

... winning their 1st round game with VCU: 23 to 1
... and beating Mason in the semis: 95 to 1
... and reaching the CAA Finals, most likely by having to beat #1 ODU: 1784 to 1

And just for fun, should they make the finals, their chances of winning the final: 13 to 2

Here are the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Old Dominion: 2.1 to 1 (32.4%)
2. Northeastern: 11 to 2 (15.5%)
3. William & Mary: 14.7 to 1
4. George Mason: 120.0 to 1
5. Virginia Commonwealth: 1.5 to 1 (39.6%)
6. Drexel: 60.6 to 1
7. Hofstra: 51.3 to 1
8. Towson: 7427.9 to 1
9. NC Wilmington: 591.6 to 1
10. Georgia State: 688.9 to 1
11. James Madison: 2883.5 to 1
12. Delaware: 13198.2 to 1

Next: The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Northeast Conference

Part 8 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

After a couple of different conference tournament situations, the Northeast Conference and its home-court campus format gets us back to the usual formula: A favorite (#1 seed Quinnipiac at 51.8%) lording over an eight team field that features a couple of dark horses (#2 Robert Morris and #3 Mount St Mary's, each with chances around 20-22%) and a field of longshots.

There's not much else to say here. As a small time conference, the tournament winner will likely get fed to a top 3 seed in the NCAAs. The home court format means the high seeds will get the advantage, meaning that even though #3 Mt. St. Mary's is very close in strength to top seed Quinnipiac, having to go on the road to beat the #1 or #2 puts them at a disadvantage. #8 Monmouth is stronger than the three seeds above them but it doesn't make much of a difference where they're seeded as they like the others are a huge longshot (149 to 1).

Here are the Missouri Valley Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Quinnipiac: Even (51.8%)
2. Robert Morris: 7 to 2 (21.7%)
3. Mt. St. Mary's: 4 to 1 (20.1%)
4. Long Island: 28.9 to 1
5. Fairleigh Dickinson: 365.2 to 1
6. St. Francis-PA: 486.5 to 1
7. Central Connecticut State: 403.7 to 1
8. Monmouth: 149.0 to 1

Next: Colonial Athletic Association

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Missouri Valley

Part 7 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

A 10 team college basketball tournament field that includes solid mid-majors like Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Missouri State and Creighton at a truly neutral site in St. Louis? You'd expect a wide open semifinal with many possibilities for a tight, competitive final in this tournament, right?

Well, actually... despite four rounds, a truly neutral site for everyone and as many as four teams that aren't quite at-large tournament teams but can make a serious case for the NIT, the Missouri Vakkey Conference Tournament is yet another straightforward tournament situation. But the favorite isn't a huge favorite, and there isn't a clear cut 2nd team with more than a slight chance of winning. On the flip side, there are only two massive longshots, with everyone else falling into that also-ran longshot category reserved for perennial 8th place horses in a stakes race.

It's possible that MVC favorite Northern Iowa gets beat: They only have a 38.2% chance of winning it all. It's just not clear who exactly is likely to beat them. The closest shot is #2 seed Wichita State, but at 9 to 2 (18.2%) to take it all you can't exactly call them a favorite.

The next most likely team is the #3 seed, and one of the MVC's more unfamiliar strong teams: Illinois State, at 17 to 2 (10.4%). The conference's familiar faces are actually longshots: #4 Creighton is 13 to 1. Perennial bubble visitor Missouri State is at 11 to 1 thanks to an uncharacteristically bad conference performance landing them in the #7 seed and being one of the four dreaded opening round teams, playing for the right to plunge into the gaping maw of a top seed in the quarters. Joining them in the play-in games is #9 Southern Illinois (30 to 1), in what has to be one of their worst seasons in years.

Just for fun, here are 1570 to 1 Evansville's odds of....

... winning their opening round game with Missouri State: 5 to 1
... plus beating Wichita State to get to the MVC Semis: 46 to 1
... then getting to the MVC Championship: 250 to 1

Here are the Missouri Valley Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Northern Iowa: 3 to 2 (38.2%)
2. Wichita State: 9 to 2
3. Illinois State: 17 to 2
4. Creighton: 13 to 1
5. Indiana State: 27.8 to 1
6. Bradley: 24.1 to 1
7. Missouri State: 10.9 to 1
8. Drake: 210.3 to 1
9. Southern Illinois: 30.3 to 1
10. Evansville: 1570 to 1

Next: The Northeast Conference

Bonus: The Spread has posted betting odds for the Missouri Valley Tournament.

Northern Iowa 5/4
Wichita State 5/2
Illinois State 7/2
Creighton 5/1
Missouri State 7/1
Bradley 8/1
Indiana State 11/1
Field 15/1

Given the calculated odds and the payouts for the odds listed above, here are the expected values of each particular prop if $10 is wagered on each prop. In other words, if you were able to hypothetically make this exact wager an infinite number of times, this is average amount you'd win or lose per wager.

Northern Iowa: -$1.41
Wichita State: -$3.64
Illinois State: -$5.31
Creighton: -$5.73
Missouri State: -$3.27
Bradley: -$6.41
Indiana State: -$5.83
Field: -$4.78

Recommendation to avoid at those odds.

Of course, the odds will vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, which will change the expected value each time. But using the odds I posted, one can generally determine the profitability of running with a particular number by figuring:

EV = (chance of winning x net money you'd win*) - (chance of losing x net money you'd lose)

* - Net money won is not the total paid to you, but the total gained over your bet. For example, if you're paid 2 to 1 on a $10 bet you get $30, but your actual net gain is $20 over the $10 you initially bet.

Anyway, if the EV number for a given bet is positive, it's a bet worth making.

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: America East

Part 6 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.



The America East Conference usually stages a 9 team basketball tournament, where the bottom two teams square off in a preliminary play-in to determine who faces the #1 seed in a regular three-round eliminator between the remaining eight. But Binghamton, the scheduled #5 seed, shocked the conference by dropping out of the tournament due to concerns about serious problems with its program.

This rippled the layout of the conference tournament, despite Binghamton being projected as one of the tourney's weaker participants. The play-in game was eliminated and both Albany and Maryland-Baltimore County (UMBC) now get quarterfinal games (albeit as longshots vs the #1 and #2 seeds). Boston U now gets Hartford, who would be an easier opponent on a neutral court... except most of the tournament is being played in Hartford (the final is played at the higher seed's home court), giving the Hawks a slight home court bonus (Boston remains a 76% favorite vs the 8-21 Hawks).

Aside from that, three teams stand at least a decent chance of winning. #2 seed Vermont has the best chance of taking the tourney at 36.9%. Their toughest potential opponent in terms of probability would be against #4 seed Boston, the 2nd best team. The Terriers would only be a 51.4% favorite in that game, but overall they have a 28.8% chance of winning the tourney and would be favored in any game they could potentially play, but face a tougher slate as the #4 seed.

The dark horse is actually #1 seed Stony Brook at around 19.6%, another case of the best conference team not finishing with the best conference record. Stony Brook landed a 13-2 conference record (over Maine and Vermont's 11-4) to get an easy 1st round game. However, they will meet their match in the likely event that Boston wins the 4-5 matchup, as Boston is the 2nd best team in the conference.

Beyond that, #3 Maine has a hardway shot at roughly 8 to 1 to win it all, and everyone else is a distant longshot. Tourney host Hartford is a distant longshot, their home court advantage only improving their odds to around 52 to 1. Albany and UMBC benefited the most from the seeding shift thanks to bypassing the play in game... not that they'll notice. Albany went from a 573 to 1 shot to a better but still distant 81 to 1, and UMBC went from 10557 to 1 to a still seemingly impossible 406 to 1.

Here are the America East Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Stony Brook: 4.1 to 1
2. Vermont: 7 to 4 (38.8%)
3. Maine: 7.8 to 1
4. Boston U: 5 to 2 (28.6%)
5. Hartford: 52.4 to 1
6. New Hampshire: 34.9 to 1
7. UMBC: 405.6 to 1
8. Albany: 81.4 to 1

Next: The Missouri Valley Conference

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Patriot League

Part 5 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

By no means competitive in Division I's big picture (the winner is likely 1st round fodder for a top 3 seed), Patriot League mens basketball is fairly competitive amongst themselves, every team roughly equal in strength from top to bottom. The worst team (Navy) could hang in on their home court with the best team (Lehigh).

The competitive parity, both on paper and in conference play, led to a scrambled pecking order in the tournament seeding. Lehigh is of course the #1 seed, but the League's 2nd best to 5th best teams are fairly equal, with the bottom three not too far behind. In fact, the 2nd best team, Holy Cross, earned the #7 seed! And #8 seed Army is actually a middle of the pack team that didn't fare too well in conference play. Meanwhile, the bottom three, American, Navy and Colgate, are seeded 4, 5 and 6, respectively.

The Patriot League plays a home-court tournament, with all games on the higher seed's home floor. As expected, this gives the top seed a huge edge, but the League's parity means Lehigh is still only a 45% shot to win the NCAA Tournament bid. Since #8 seed Army is more middle-of-the-pack, Lehigh is only a 73.7% shot to make it out of the first round (most 1-8 matchups give the top seed at least an 80-95% shot), which reduces their chances of winning it all as subsequent games get generally tougher: Lehigh will never be more than an 83.1% favorite in any potential game (if Navy beats American to meet Lehigh in the Semis). Still, the Mountain Hawks are by proxy the favorite.

Beyond that, we revert to the usual small conference tournament formula of a favorite, 1-2 dark horses and a bunch of long shots. Only #2 Lafayette (18.2%) and #3 Bucknell (14.9%) have a remotely realistic shot at winning. No one else is closer than 16 to 1. As close as the teams are in ability and talent, the home court format just sinks the lower seeds' chances, while the middle seeds don't have the relative strength to back up their seeding.

Here are the Patriot League Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Lehigh: 1.2 to 1
2. Lafayette: 4.5 to 1
3. Bucknell: 5.7 to 1
4. American: 15.9 to 1
5. Navy: 34.9 to 1
6. Colgate: 32.8 to 1
7. Holy Cross: 16.6 to 1
8. Army: 21.3 to 1

Navy will never hear the end of it from Army over being the tournament longshot despite being the #5 seed... unless of course they somehow sneak into the final.

Next: The America East Conference

Bonus: The Patriot League's official website offers a thorough preview of the quarterfinal matchups.

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Atlantic Sun

Part 4 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

We've seen three fairly straightforward conference tournament situations, featuring a dominant favorite and varying degrees of underdogs vying for the upset. But now we see a conference tourney where the field is wide open: The lowly Atlantic Sun Conference.

- A four way tie for 1st in the conference triggered a tiebreaker and left the conference's best team, Belmont, with the #3 seed. #5 seed East Tennessee State, per Sagarin Predictor the 2nd best team in the conference, finished only one game behind.

- In fact, Sagarin Predictor ratings indicate the difference between the 1 and 5 seeds is fairly small. And while the #6 seed is a bit behind in terms of strength, they reach the peloton with an edge from....

- ... the entire tournament being held in Macon, GA (the first tournament we'll see played entirely at a neutral site), giving hometown school Mercer (the #6 seed) the home court advantage. Everyone else is facing a neutral court situation (the next closest team is #8 seed Kennesaw State, based 85 miles from Macon), making many potential matchups fairly close.

This is the first tourney where there is no odds-on favorite (a team with greater than 50% chance of winning), and the first where the top seed is not the favorite. #3 Belmont, at 3.8 to 1 (20.8%), has the best shot and that's not saying much. Only bottom seeds North Florida and Kennesaw State are facing truly long odds of winning. Beyond those, this field is fairly wide open. Some teams have better bracket situations than others and ultimately everyone's a longshot, but all of the six remaining seeds have realistic shots at winning the Atlantic Sun's NCAA Tournament bid.

Here are the Atlantic Sun Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Lipscomb: 5.3 to 1
2. Jacksonville: 4.3 to 1
3. Belmont: 3.8 to 1
4. Campbell: 7.1 to 1
5. East Tennessee State: 4.8 to 1
6. Mercer: 7.2 to 1
7. North Florida: 96.3 to 1
8. Kennesaw State: 122.3 to 1

Next: The Patriot League

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Ohio Valley

Part 3 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Ranked 21st of the 32 Conferences by Sagarin's ratings, the Ohio Valley Conference isn't close to mid-major status but has enough halfway decent teams to warrant at least a booking at Nashville's Sommet Center for the Semis and Finals.

Like the Big South, the Ohio Valley plays a straight 8 team, three round tournament, excluding their two worst teams (SE Missouri State and Tennessee-Martin). The big difference is that, while the opening round games are played at the higher seeds' home courts, the semis and finals are played at a "neutral" site.

However, as with many conferences, the "neutral" site is actually close to a few schools, giving them a de facto home court advantage. Sure, the smaller conference schools don't tend to travel as well as major power schools' students and alumni do, but whether or not their fans come out, they still have the advantage of being close to home. #3 seed Austin Peay is about 45 miles away from Nashville. #6 seed Tennessee Tech is about 70 miles east. The biggest edge, however, ironically goes to the bottom #8 seed Tennessee State, whose campus is located right in Nashville. They pretty much will have the biggest home court advantage... if they can get there.

See, as with the preceding conferences, the Ohio Valley's roost is ruled by a single leader. Murray State is rated 62nd by the Sagarin ratings, and will probably make the NIT in the not-as-likely event that they don't win the OVC Tournament outright and take down the NCAA Tournament bid. But Murray State is an odds on favorite, with a 60.9% chance of winning out.

That's the lowest probability of any #1 seed we've seen thus far, and it's part of one of the more interesting tournament situations we've seen so far. Morehead State and Austin Peay are hardway bets to upset the Racers and win out. On the flip side, #5 seed Eastern Kentucky is probably the 3rd best team in the conference, but a three way tie for 3rd and the short end of a tiebreaker left them with the 5 seed and having to win a road game with Eastern Illinois to get to Nashville. This kind of screws what would otherwise be a decent dark horse: EKU is a 23 to 1 shot.

Tennessee State's lucky home court advantage is pretty much done in by the fact that they would have to upset Murray State to be able to use it. Don't hold your breath: The Racers are a 95.5% favorite to take care of State. State's got a chance at being the favorite in a few potential matchups if they hit the 22 to 1 longshot, which in all makes them a 115 to 1 shot, even better than #7 Jacksonville State at 265 to 1.

Here are the Ohio Valley Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Murray State: 60.4%
2. Morehead State: 4.3 to 1
3. Austin Peay: 7.7 to 1
4. Eastern Illinois: 49.9 to 1
5. Eastern Kentucky: 22.9 to 1
6. Tennessee Tech: 80.3 to 1
7. Jacksonville State: 264.9 to 1
8. Tennessee State: 115.3 to 1

Next: The Atlantic Sun Tournament

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big South

Part 2 of this series stops at the Big South. Again, I'll use Sagarin Predictor ratings for each team in a Markov Chain of prediction formulas to determine the odds that each team can win the conference tournament.

The good news for Big South participants is that this tourney follows a straightforward 8 team, three round format: The first round is played March 2, the Semis on March 4 and the Final on March 6. All games are played at the higher seed's home court. Win three games and you get a seat in the NCAA Tournament and a likely beating from a #1, #2 or #3 seed.

The bad news is that, like in the Horizon League with Butler, the Big South has a big dog playing the prohibitive favorite. Coastal Carolina (22-5) is the easy favorite to win it all, and as the #1 seed they have home court throughout the tournament, which improves their chances even more. Like Butler, they are an odds on favorite to win the Big South's slot in the NCAA's.

That said, the odds are not as long for the lower Big South teams. The 10 team Big South actually eliminates their lowest teams from tournament play: Gardner-Webb and Presbyterian were left out. Since the worst teams aren't included, those remaining are going to have a slightly better shot than the 1000+ to 1 shots we saw in the Horizon League. The simpler tourney format, which gives no byes, also helps.

But the odds remain long for the remaining teams. #2 seed Radford is still nearly a 5 to 1 shot, meaning they've got about a 17% chance of winning. #3 Winthrop is the only other team with anything resembling a realistic shot. Coastal Carolina is just that much better than everyone, and they're at home no matter what to boot.

Here are the Big South Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Coastal Carolina: 73.4%
2. Radford: 4.8 to 1
3. Winthrop: 15.2 to 1
4. UNC Asheville: 89.0 to 1
5. High Point: 89.9 to 1
6. Liberty: 173.9 to 1
7. Charleston Southern: 238.6 to 1
8. VMI: 954.5 to 1

Next: The Ohio Valley Tournament

On the idea behind my past and present research on batted ball rates

I started late last year with tracking batted ball rates for Mariners minor leaguers, then comparing them against MLB league average batted ball AVG/OBP/SLG rates to get a composite average, or how each player would have hit if his respective batted balls produced in line with league averages. I kept walks, strikeouts and other non-in-play outcomes constant. I devised the same composite AVG/OBP/SLG numbers for hitters and pitchers, since I was measuring the same rate stats. By MLE-adjusting the numbers, I could get a general sense of the progress a player made as he advanced through the system.

The idea was to get away from counting stats (singles, doubles, triples) in analyzing and projecting players, and look more towards stats that trended towards certain outcomes. Groundballs go for hits at a better rate than flyballs (.242 composite AVG over 2005-2009) but come with no power (.262 SLG). Flyballs go for hits the least (.223) but lead to the most isolated power (.594) and of course home runs... though that data includes home runs, which can't be fielded, and pop flies, which are almost always outs (.020 AVG). Line drives go for hits an amazing 73-74% of the time (.736), though they come with less isolated power than flyballs (1.004 SLG).

Dan Fox had some old batted ball data in 2007 that I used at the time, as it was the most reliable data I could get my hands on. I got as far as napkin adjusted numbers for several Mariners farm teams, but never much beyond that. Ultimately, I realized that, since Fox's data was outdated by several years, it wouldn't do me much good to continue until I had some present-day data.

Since the saber-community focuses their data on spitting out a single raw number centered around runs, and many of their formulas are built around the counting stats, not a whole lot of data was available on batted ball-in-play averages and slugging. According to Baseball Prospectus annual data from net run expectancy (which I pulled from their past three annual publications), MLB run averages per batted ball are typically 0.19 runs per flyball, 0.39 runs per line drive and 0.04 runs per groundball. But there's no data as to the breakdown by average and slugging, thus extrapolating an expected slash from that data is a fool's errand until you can find averages for each.

That is, until Baseball Reference began including GB/FB/LD splits in their recent year to year MLB league split data (here is the AL's 2009 breakdown). This allowed me to finally take a recent five year split of data and create a composite AVG/SLG for each batted ball based on actual MLB data... which is how I got the numbers parenthetically referenced above. As with the composite run expectancy matrix, the numbers are taken into account like so:

2009: 50%
2008: 30%
2007: 10%
2006: 6%
2005: 4%

I used the past five years to ensure a sufficiently sizable sample and minimize variance, while properly giving greater weight to recent data and lesser weight to data from the more distant past. This was especially important in light of the recent rollout of some new ballparks (Citi Field, Nationals Park) plus a slight but noticeable decline in offensive numbers over the last 2-3 years. That said, numbers consistently correlated across seasons and I'm sure the league average batted ball data is reliably consistent.

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Horizon League

Today I'll begin a new series, using current Sagarin ratings and a Markov Chain to determine the probability of each team's chances of winning for all 30 forthcoming NCAA Men's Division I College Basketball conference tournaments.

I'll start today with the Horizon League, where Top 25 powerhouse Butler pretty much has this conference in the palm of their hands, and could likely make the tournament at-large even if eliminated. The rest of the conference isn't so lucky. Wright State is the only other decent team in this conference, and along with needing to win out to earn a tournament bid, their chances are a somewhat remote 4 to 1 even with two byes.



The Horizon League tournament follows a strange 10 team format. The top two seeds, Butler and Wright State, can skip the 1st round and quarterfinals and don't have to play a single game until the semis. Seeds 3 through 10 open the tournament on March 2 with four single elimination games played at the higher seed's home court.

9-Illinois Chicago at 4-UW Milwaukee
8 Loyola Chicago at 5-Cleveland State
10 Youngstown State at 3-UW Green Bay
7-Detroit at 6-Valparaiso

After the first round, the tournament shifts to Butler's home court, as Butler is the #1 seed, for the quarters on March 5 as the winners of the preceding games all play each other. The next day, Butler plays the winner of the Milwaukee-UIC-Cleveland-Loyola mess, while Wright State gets the winner of the other mess, all again at Butler's home court. After that, the final is played on March 9 at the home court of the highest remaining seed, whether that's Butler or whoever else if Butler is knocked off.

All that given, here are the Horizon League Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Butler: 74.6% (1 to 3)
2. Wright State: 4 to 1
3. Wisconsin-Green Bay: 65 to 1
4. Wisconsin-Milwaukee: 73 to 1
5. Cleveland State: 134 to 1
6. Valparaiso: 217 to 1
7. Detroit: 96 to 1
8. Loyola-Chicago: 2010 to 1
9. Illinois-Chicago: 10819 to 1
10. Youngstown State: 2829 to 1

Aside from Butler's overwhelming likeliness that (short of taking a dive to get a fellow conference team into the dance) they will win this tournament... two items jump out that you should get used to seeing as more of these projections roll out.

One: Many teams face astronomical odds of winning. This makes sense due to the two top teams being far better than everyone else in the conference and both of those teams getting byes to the semis while everyone else has to duke it out in the two early rounds for the right to try and win two games as a significant underdog.

Two: Some teams have better odds than teams seeded above them. The team with the longest odds isn't the lowest seed, Youngstown State, but the team above them, Illinois-Chicago. UIC is the weakest team by rating in the conference and doesn't have as well a chance of winning all hypothetically possible opponents as Youngstown State does. You'll notice that Detroit's got much better odds than the teams around them (though at 96 to 1 that's not saying much). Since seeding is done by conference ranking and many teams are separated by 1-2 conference wins, the seeding often isn't indicative of the true rank among those teams. So expect to see this phenomenon regularly.

All that said, this should be one of the more foregone conclusions of the 30 tournaments. You won't see many #1 seeds with as great a chance of winning as Butler has in this tournament. Others should be a bit more competitive.