Monday, March 1, 2010

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big South

Part 2 of this series stops at the Big South. Again, I'll use Sagarin Predictor ratings for each team in a Markov Chain of prediction formulas to determine the odds that each team can win the conference tournament.

The good news for Big South participants is that this tourney follows a straightforward 8 team, three round format: The first round is played March 2, the Semis on March 4 and the Final on March 6. All games are played at the higher seed's home court. Win three games and you get a seat in the NCAA Tournament and a likely beating from a #1, #2 or #3 seed.

The bad news is that, like in the Horizon League with Butler, the Big South has a big dog playing the prohibitive favorite. Coastal Carolina (22-5) is the easy favorite to win it all, and as the #1 seed they have home court throughout the tournament, which improves their chances even more. Like Butler, they are an odds on favorite to win the Big South's slot in the NCAA's.

That said, the odds are not as long for the lower Big South teams. The 10 team Big South actually eliminates their lowest teams from tournament play: Gardner-Webb and Presbyterian were left out. Since the worst teams aren't included, those remaining are going to have a slightly better shot than the 1000+ to 1 shots we saw in the Horizon League. The simpler tourney format, which gives no byes, also helps.

But the odds remain long for the remaining teams. #2 seed Radford is still nearly a 5 to 1 shot, meaning they've got about a 17% chance of winning. #3 Winthrop is the only other team with anything resembling a realistic shot. Coastal Carolina is just that much better than everyone, and they're at home no matter what to boot.

Here are the Big South Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Coastal Carolina: 73.4%
2. Radford: 4.8 to 1
3. Winthrop: 15.2 to 1
4. UNC Asheville: 89.0 to 1
5. High Point: 89.9 to 1
6. Liberty: 173.9 to 1
7. Charleston Southern: 238.6 to 1
8. VMI: 954.5 to 1

Next: The Ohio Valley Tournament

1 comment:

  1. Well, way to take a dive, Coastal. Congratulations to Winthrop for pulling the big upset in the final to earn the NCAA bid.