Friday, March 5, 2010

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Summit League

Part 14 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Ron Hunter has been IUPUI's coach for 14 seasons and led the Jaguars to their only NCAA Tournament appearance in 2003. He has a strong chance of leading IUPUI to their 2nd: His Jaguars are the favorite in the Summit League's straight-forward eight team tourney at 36.4%.

IUPUI's got company up front, though, so they're no lock. Top seed Oakland obviously has a decent shot (22.9%) while #3 Oral Roberts (20.3%) is in the hunt despite a down year. #4 South Dakota State is hosting and they're a dark horse at around 11 to 2. The rest of the field is a longshot, but if the high seeds hold serve, it's going to be an entertaining dogfight from the Semis on.

Here are the Summit League odds for every team involved:

1. Oakland: 3.4 to 1 (22.9%)
2. IUPUI: 9 to 5 (36.4%)
3. Oral Roberts: 3.9 to 1 (20.3%)
4. South Dakota State: 5.4 to 1
5. IPFW: 42.5 to 1
6. North Dakota State: 65.7 to 1
7. Western Illinois: 168.9 to 1
8. UMKC: 202.4 to 1

Next: The Sun Belt Conference

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