Part 17 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
Morgan State has been the best team in a weak MEAC for quite some time and things are no different as this 11 team tournament kicks off. Morgan State is a 6 to 5 favorite (44.6%) to win, and no one's individually more than a dark horse to catch them.
If anyone's going to knock off Morgan State, the likeliest suspects are #5 Hampton (11 to 2), #3 South Carolina State (13 to 2) and #2 Delaware State (over 8 to 1). North Carolina A&T gets a boost from the tournament's Winston-Salem base being close to Greensboro, but is still almost a 15 to 1 shot as the #9 seed. Everyone else is basically a long shot.
Here are the MEAC odds for every team involved:
1. Morgan State: 6 to 5 (44.6%)
2. Delaware State: 8.4 to 1
3. SC State: 6.4 to 1
4. Norfolk State: 23.7 to 1
5. Hampton: 5.6 to 1
6. UMES: 146.8 to 1
7. Bethune Cookman: 23.3 to 1
8. Howard: 1414.4 to 1
9. NC A&T: 14.6 to 1
10. Florida A&M: 542.8 to 1
11. Coppin State: 164 to 1
Next: We start getting into the big mid-majors and power conferences, as we take a look at The Atlantic 10.
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