Thursday, March 4, 2010

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Part 9 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Bad news for anyone in the Metro Atlantic who isn't Siena: The Conference tournament is being held in Albany, NY, just a short drive down the road from Siena's Loudonville home base. This gives the top seed, who already had a sizable advantage over the 10 team field, an even bigger advantage and turns this tournament into a likely walkover.

Siena, 24-6 and rated 55th in current Sagarin ratings, is probably not an at-large NCAA Tournament team and is probably a 12-13 seed should they win out. But they shouldn't have to worry about winning this thing: Their toughest potential opponent is #6 Iona, and Siena's still a 79.8% favorite in that game. They are at least a 90% favorite vs all but three other teams. They have a massive 74.8% chance of winning this tournament, and only a colossal choke job on their part would cost them a destined NCAA Tournament seat.

Here are the Metro Atlantic Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Siena: 74.8%
2. Fairfield: 9.0 to 1
3. Niagara: 18.3 to 1
4. St Peter's: 24.5 to 1
5. Rider: 58.8 to 1
6. Iona: 9.3 to 1
7. Canisius: 76.8 to 1
8. Loyola-MD: 152.5 to 1
9. Manhattan: 184.5 to 1
10. Marist: 42764.4 to 1

At nearly 43000 to 1, Marist (1-28) is the longest shot we've seen to date. That's roughly the odds of a golfer making a hole in one where the cup's within reach of his/her tee shot (those odds BTW are 42952 to 1).

Next: The Southern Conference

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