Last year I composed a series of convoluted posts detailing each team's odds of winning their respective conference tournaments, then composed a full set of probabilities for each NCAA Tournament team to make the Final Four. Despite a little rust on the prob/stat end due to my theatre exploits, I jogged my memory and quickly whipped out a full set of probabilities, adjusting for the new wonky 68 team format.
The new at-large play-in format doesn't adversely affect those teams' already dim chances of making the Sweet 16 or Final Four. We're talking about 11 and 12 seeds here, after all. These teams are already facing long odds of getting to the Final Four. At worst, playing in cuts those chances by 70%, and if so that team's probably not good enough to project getting far anyway. More than likely, a worthy Cinderella candidate only sees their chances drop by 1/3... for example a 12% shot to make the Final Four becomes a 9% shot... not a huge difference.
In the distant past I've gone over the formula for determining each team's odds of winning individual games based on Sagarin ratings, and determining their odds of reaching certain points in the tournament based on Markov formulas. I won't bore you now with the details but rest assured this isn't just a bunch of numbers and ideas I pulled out of my ass.
So now, here are the four regions and odds for each team in the region:
EAST
The only region with two play in games has a lot of wonky stuff going on aside from the bonus action, but this is pretty much Ohio State's region for the taking.
Dark horse: Washington (7). I'd say Kentucky at #4 but they'll run into consensus #1 team Ohio State in the Sweet 16, easily the team to beat this year, and Orange would be a 2 to 1 dog in that matchup: I don't foresee an upset. UW, however, is a deserving but dangerous 7 seed that, for all their ups and downs (and legal trouble) this year, can play with just about anyone in the country. If they faced overseeded #2 UNC in round two I'd actually have the Huskies as the slight favorite, and think #3 Syracuse would give them a tougher but winnable challenge in the Sweet 16. Don't be too shocked if Ohio State ends up facing UW in the regional final. I won't say the Huskies would win... but they could certainly give the Buckeyes a scare at the least, and scoring the upset isn't impossible.
Overseeded: North Carolina (2) and Xavier (6). Reputation's pretty much carrying UNC in a down year: They're more like a 4 this year. Three teams below them (Syracuse, Kentucky, Washington) would be favorites to beat them on a neutral floor. Roy Williams' team would be fortunate to make the 2nd weekend, dad gummit. Xavier is more of a double digit seed, such a bad misseeding by the committee that they may have table-set a 1st round upset (more in a bit).
Underseeded: Clemson (12) and Marquette (11). Clemson did not have the best year but they should not be playing in when they're better than at least 4-5 other at-large teams, if not more. Marquette also got unduly punished, and probably deserved a single digit seed. 1st round opponent Xavier is similarly mismatched, and don't be surprised if Marquette sends Xavier packing.
No chance in hell: Neither 16 seed poses any sort of credible threat. Texas-San Antonio's odds at the Final Four are suitably long at 430,000 to 1, but the odds for Alabama State, easily the weakest team in this 68 team field, are so laughably long they make Powerball look like a better bet: 69,000,000 to 1. That is not an exaggeration. Their odds of getting to the round of 32 alone are 612 to 1 and their odds of making the 2nd weekend are roughly 23,800 to 1.
You have a better chance of... dying in a tsunami (condolences, Japan). In fact, you're more than ten times more likely to die randomly in a tsunami (615,488 to 1). Those odds obviously go up if you live on coastline in a fault zone, but still.
At least their odds are better than the odds of winning Powerball: 195,000,000 to 1.
Odds:
1. Ohio State. Sweet 16: 79.3%. Final Four: 1.4 to 1 (41.5%)
2. North Carolina. Sweet 16: 46.2%. Final Four: 9.5 to 1
3. Syracuse. Sweet 16: 59.4%. Final Four: 7.2 to 1
4. Kentucky. Sweet 16: 59.4%. Final Four: 6.0 to 1
5. West Virginia. Sweet 16: 26.4%. Final Four: 27.3 to 1
6. Xavier. Sweet 16: 14.6%. Final Four: 96.9 to 1
7. Washington. Sweet 16: 45.1%. Final Four: 8.3 to 1
8. George Mason. Sweet 16: 7.8%. Final Four: 96.7 to 1
9. Villanova. Sweet 16: 12.8%. Final Four: 42.4 to 1
10. Georgia. Sweet 16: 6.9%. Final Four: 271 to 1
11. Marquette. Sweet 16: 23.7%. Final Four: 38.9 to 1
12. UAB. Sweet 16: 2.8%. Final Four: 861 to 1
12. Clemson. Sweet 16: 8.8%. Final Four: 131 to 1
13. Princeton. Sweet 16: 2.6%. Final Four: 2488 to 1
14. Indiana State. Sweet 16: 2.3%. Final Four: 4125 to 1
15. Long Island. Sweet 16: 1.8%. Final Four: 4331 to 1
16. Texas San Antonio. Sweet 16: 0.1%. Final Four: 430,000 to 1
16. Alabama State. Sweet 16: LOL. Final Four: 69,000,000 to 1
WEST
A more conventional 16 team region also has a conventional favorite, as Duke like OSU is facing considerable odds (41%) of making the Final Four. Few teams here can pose a serious challenge for them.
Dark Horse: San Diego State (2) and Texas (4). Silly to cite two high seeds as dark horses, but these are pretty much the best teams in the field not named Duke and the only real challengers to the Blue Devils. Texas is only a 60-40 dog to Duke and if they pulled the upset they'd be the favorite against every possible opponent. SDSU would be a 2 to 1 dog vs Duke in the Elite Eight and a 56-44 dog to Texas if the Longhorns pulled the upset but would be the favorite against anyone else. The odds for either aren't terrific, around 9 to 2 or 5 to 1, but they have the most realistic chance of everyone else to pull it off.
Overseeded: Tennessee (9) and Memphis (12). The Volunteers probably deserved a double digit seed, while Memphis' reputational license has long since expired. They won their conference tourney to get in, but they pack little more punch than your run of the mill mid-major these days, and probably belongs in the 13-14 range. Don't count on a 5-12 upset when Memphis meets legit 5 seed Arizona, while Tennessee has a reasonable shot at a round one win but stands little chance against Duke in the 32-round.
Underseeded: Texas (4) and Missouri (11). Texas has the strength of a 2, and if they meet Duke in the Sweet 16 as expected they will likely pose the toughest challenge of the bracket to the Blue Devils. Missouri probably warrants a middle seed more than a bubble seed, and likely no one will notice because Cincinnati at 6 is pretty good and is a slight 54-46 favorite to dispatch the Tigers, who deserved better.
No chance in hell: 16 seed Hampton is already a 50 to 1 dog to beat Duke in round one. Their odds of going all the way to the Final Four? A paltry 100,000 to 1.
You have a better chance of... sinking a hole in one from 150 yards (80,000 to 1). Maybe Hampton should bag the tourney and join the golf team for a relaxing weekend that doesn't involve getting crushed by 30 points against a Duke team running at half speed.
Odds:
1. Duke. Sweet 16: 82.8%. Final Four: 1.4 to 1 (41.2%)
2. San Diego State. Sweet 16: 65.3%. Final Four: 4.8 to 1
3. Connecticut. Sweet 16: 45.4%. Final Four: 12.4 to 1
4. Texas. Sweet 16: 59.9%. Final Four: 4.6 to 1
5. Arizona. Sweet 16: 30.2%. Final Four: 21.9 to 1
6. Cincinnati. Sweet 16: 28.2%. Final Four: 24 to 1
7. Temple. Sweet 16: 18.6%. Final Four: 54.1 to 1
8. Michigan. Sweet 16: 9.7%. Final Four: 90.9 to 1
9. Tennessee. Sweet 16: 7.2%. Final Four: 153 to 1
10. Penn State. Sweet 16: 13.8%. Final Four: 93.7 to 1
11. Missouri. Sweet 16: 22.9%. Final Four: 35.5 to 1
12. Memphis. Sweet 16: 3.5%. Final Four: 1133 to 1
13. Oakland. Sweet 16: 6.4%. Final Four: 315 to 1
14. Bucknell. Sweet 16: 3.4%. Final Four: 1568 to 1
15. Northern Colorado. Sweet 16: 2.4%. Final Four: 2974 to 1
16. Hampton. Sweet 16: 0.3%. Final Four: 100,000 to 1
SOUTHWEST
The odds of someone other than the top seed get a little better here, but not by much,a s top seed Kansas has a 34.6% chance of making the Final Four. However, the challenge is more broad and general, with no specific dark horses posing a threat aside from....
Dark horse: Purdue (3). Purdue might be a touch underseeded but it makes little difference at 3. They are a do-able 62-38 dog against Kansas if they meet in the regional final, and are solid (though typically not dominant) favorites against anyone else in the field, even 2 seed Notre Dame. Their chances of making the Elite Eight are a solid 39.5%, and there's a 47% chance Kansas falls before that point, which would make the Boilermakers a favorite to make the Final Four.
Overseeded: Both 11 seeds in the region's play-in game: USC and VCU. Actually, "shouldn't be in the tournament at all" is a better label. Given the snubs (Colorado, St Mary's, New Mexico), and how low both of these teams rate overall, the fact that either of these teams are playing championship basketball at all is insulting. Neither objectively is close to being a bubble team, and yet here they are. USC is a 69-31 favorite in the game, and a 74-26 dog against a far superior #6 Georgetown team. 12 seed Richmond could wipe the floor with both these play-in jokes.
Underseeded: UNLV (8) and Illinois (9). Both these 1st round opponents should be a couple seeds higher. If not playing each other for the right to get force-fed to Kansas, both would have a very good shot at the 2nd weekend.
No chance in hell: Newcomer St Peter's (14) faces some fairly long odds at 11,000 to 1 thanks to drawing tough Purdue in round one, making them a 13 to 1 dog for the upset. They probably should have been a 15 but debating the low seeds is a quibble. Our 16 in this bracket, Boston U, is facing 53,600 to 1 odds, and 33 to 1 odds of getting past top seeded Kansas. Even given that, the Terriers have the best chances of any 16 seed in the field.
Odds:
1. Kansas. Sweet 16: 72.3%. Final Four: 1.9 to 1 (34.6%)
2. Notre Dame. Sweet 16: 61.8%. Final Four: 6.8 to 1
3. Purdue. Sweet 16: 62.1%. Final Four: 4.1 to 1
4. Louisville. Sweet 16: 56.9%. Final Four: 8.2 to 1
5. Vanderbilt. Sweet 16: 26.0%. Final Four: 33.8 to 1
6. Georgetown. Sweet 16: 23.0%. Final Four: 25.4 to 1
7. Texas A&M. Sweet 16: 18.1%. Final Four: 65.3 to 1
8. UNLV. Sweet 16: 12.9%. Final Four: 37.1 to 1
9. Illinois. Sweet 16: 14.6%. Final Four: 30.1 to 1
10. Florida State. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 65.0 to 1
11. USC. Sweet 16: 7.5%. Final Four: 141 to 1
11. VCU. Sweet 16: 1.1%. Final Four: 2911 to 1
12. Richmond. Sweet 16: 14.3%. Final Four: 105 to 1
13. Morehead State. Sweet 16: 2.8%. Final Four: 2818 to 1
14. St Peter's. Sweet 16: 0.9%. Final Four: 11,000 to 1
15. Akron. Sweet 16: 1.9%. Final Four: 5832 to 1
16. Boston U. Sweet 16: 0.3%. Final Four: 53,600 to 1
SOUTHEAST
The weakest (1) seed in Pittsburgh has a somewhat serious challenger and perhaps a couple of dim challengers to their Final Four throne. This region is rather seed, chock full of mid majors, only some of which pose a serious threat one on one, and many are underseeded, forcing them to climb uphill for the right to try and knock off the Panthers. But that said, Pittsburgh's weak-favorite status means there's a 68% chance someone else will represent the Southeast region in the Final Four, with over half the teams having roulette-like odds at doing so.
Dark Horse: BYU (3). Even without dismissed Brandon Davies, the Mormon Cougars have a solid top ten ballclub, and are no worse than a slight underdog to anyone. A couple of breaks and they could sneak past Pitt into the Final Four. Only a lack of dominant strength makes them a somewhat distant shot at 20.7%. Wisconsin (4) is close in strength but is slated to run into Pittsburgh in the Sweet 16 if they get that far.
Overseeded: Florida (2) and UCLA (7). The weakest two seed in the field should be a 5 or even lower. A very weak sub-bracket (UCLA at 7 and a downish Michigan State at 10, and of course the Gators draw the easily beatable 15 seed UCSB in round one) gives them an even money chance to get to the 2nd weekend, but BYU would be a 2 to 1 favorite if they met in the Sweet 16, and even #6 St John's could give them a serious game.
I had UCLA on the bubble, but they got a 7 seed. Ridiculous. They're a 56-44 underdog to Michigan State in the 1st round.
Underseeded: Utah State (12) and Belmont (13). Look, I know mid majors play weak schedules and you have to bear that in mind when they, say, win 30 games comfortably and only lose to top 50 opponents. But weak scheds never stopped the NCAA in previous years from giving Tark's UNLV teams or old powerhouse Memphis teams high seeds. Hell, Princeton teams in the 90's got single digit seeds a few times, and they rarely played anybody during the regular season.
Oh, but they never go far in the tourney anyway, right? The reason you never see these Utah States and Belmonts go far in the tourney is because you keep giving them 12 and 13 seeds and they're forced to play a tough 4 or 5 seed in the first round instead of some middling power conference team that they could beat. Are the powers that be afraid of getting their conferences exposed as overrated in an NCAA Div-I with better parity? Are they afraid of Utah State pulling a Gonzaga and showing they could go deep and that maybe these perennially successful small schools can play with the big boys and deserve respect?
Anyway, watch out for the 5-12 upset special here, as (5) Kansas State is a slight 47-53 underdog to Utah State. Belmont is not so lucky at 13: (4) Wisconsin is the real deal and a 64-36 favorite.
Speaking of Gonzaga, they're not what they used to be, but they're a slight 52-48 favorite at (11) to topple (6) St John's. Expect many upsets in this region. But not from....
No chance in hell: Arkansas Little Rock is a gift... for Pittsburgh, that is, if they can overcome 2 to 1 favorite UNC Asheville in the play in game. UALR is a 173,000 to 1 shot to thread the needle and make the Final Four.
You have a better chance of: Being killed on the job if you're a teacher or nurse (143,000 to 1). Education majors at UALR can both take comfort and weep at these facts.
Odds:
1. Pittsburgh. Sweet 16: 75.6%. Final Four: 2.1 to 1
2. Florida. Sweet 16: 52.4%. Final Four: 9 to 1
3. BYU. Sweet 16: 58.7%. Final Four: 3.8 to 1
4. Wisconsin. Sweet 16: 41.3%. Final Four: 6.9 to 1
5. Kansas State. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 33.2 to 1
6. St John's. Sweet 16: 18.1%. Final Four: 31.2 to 1
7. UCLA. Sweet 16: 18.3%. Final Four: 58.9 to 1
8. Butler. Sweet 16: 13.5%. Final Four: 61.7 to 1
9. Old Dominion. Sweet 16: 9.9%. Final Four: 108 to 1
10. Michigan State. Sweet 16: 25.8%. Final Four: 30.6 to 1
11. Gonzaga. Sweet 16: 20.1%. Final Four: 25.9 to 1
12. Utah State. Sweet 16: 22.2%. Final Four: 23.5 to 1
13. Belmont. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 29.9 to 1
14. Wofford. Sweet 16: 3.1%. Final Four: 840 to 1
15. UC Santa Barbara. Sweet 16: 3.5%. Final Four: 1649 to 1
16. UNC Asheville. Sweet 16: 0.9%. Final Four: 7729 to 1
16. Ark Little Rock. Sweet 16: 0.1%. Final Four: 173,000 to 1
Showing posts with label statistics and probability. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics and probability. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
2010 NCAA Tournament Preview: West Regional
While lacking the straight-forward predictability of the South and Midwest Regions or the wide open situation of the East, the West Regional has two favorites at the top, with one dark horse and a lot of long shots. It's no surprise Syracuse, despite back to back losses prior to the NCAA's, is a 5 to 2 favorite, with Kansas State right on their tails at around 4 to 1. But the dark horse is a surprise. Yes, I'm going to make you wait to find out.
Overseeded:
Pittsburgh. Pomeroy says 8 seed. Sagarin says 5-6 seed. The Committee says 3 seed. The Committee must love when a team loses four of five to close January, including losses to NIT-worthy Seton Hall and South Florida... and listless 50-45 Big East tourney losses to Notre Dame to close your season. Instead of a deserved mouth-punch game with a serious bubble team or 30-ish rank squad, the Panthers get an undeservedly easy game with #14 Oakland. This team can't force turnovers to save their lives and their defense pretty much hangs on hoping their opponents can't hit shots. Their offense relies on getting second chance points and drawing fouls. If both checks fail, they are beatable fodder. Oakland's probably not beating them but #6 Xavier has a good shot at the "upset" (and yes, Xavier would actually be a 57.2% favorite in a round 2 match with Pittsburgh).
Vanderbilt. Every year, Vanderbilt seems to get a seed way higher than they deserve, implying a close, intimate relationship between Vanderbilt's AD (and possibly more attractive female members of his extended family and/or student body) and the Selection Committee. This year a Commodores team that fits as a #7... gets a #4 seed and an easily winnable 1st round matchup with tough but not tough enough #13 Murray State (63.7%). #5 Butler is a 49-51 shot against Vanderbilt, and #12 UTEP would also have a real shot at knocking them out (47.8%).
Even granted that, Vanderbilt has a stronger than deserved shot at the Sweet 16, not because they're good (their defense is ordinary and their offense relies a lot on getting calls and getting to the line) but because they got an undeservedly high seed that makes their first game easier than a deserved 7-10 matchup would have been.
Florida. The Gators probably shouldn't even be in the tournament. They were easily the most dubious at-large selection (#47 Sagarin), made more so by the omission of Virginia Tech (#34). But on top of that, instead of a more deserved #12 seed they get a #10, bypassing a challenging #5 for a more beatable #7. However, karmic justice prevails (or Holy justice if you ask their opponent), because their opponent....
Got the Shaft:
BYU. Yes, Florida gets fed to a BYU team that Sagarin rated #10 and Pomeroy rated #7, and who did not take a loss this year to anyone outside of the field of 65. I'm not sure if the Committee penalized the Mormon Cougars for their religious refusal to play Sundays or not, but BYU was a better fit for a #3 or #4 than the #7 seed.
You can't even argue that the Mountain West was a weak mid-major conference this year given the MWC sent four teams to the NCAA Tournament this year (BYU themselves, New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego State) and a 5th, Colorado State, was at least good enough to get invited to the CBI.
The irony is that this combination of bad seeding actually table-set a 7-10 upset, as BYU is a 73-27 favorite to up-end the Gators. However, instead of a likely matchup with a beatable #5 or #6 in round two, they will probably have to look up at #2 Kansas State, one of the favorites to win the regional, an injustice to a good program that seems to have taken Gonzaga's title of Official Mid-Major Selection Committee Seeding Screwjob Recipient.
Florida State. The best defense in the nation according to Pomeroy took a few late season lumps, including two losses to NIT-bound NC State, and the committee downgraded them to a #9 seed. But aside from their Wolfpack foil, none of those seven late season losses came to anyone outside of the top 20: Two losses to Maryland, two losses to Clemson and a loss to Duke, plus the Duke loss was the only defeat by a double digit margin. Hardly embarrassing losses, and they held serve against unspectacular but solid ACC competition with nine wins after January 4's win over Texas A&M Corpus Christi. FSU probably should have gotten a #7 instead of a #9, and even if they beat Gonzaga (which they have a 62.1% chance to do) they then have to look Syracuse in the eye and pull a big upset to see the 2nd weekend. They have a 33% chance at such an upset, but still.
UTEP. Yes, dropping a load in the Conference USA final to Houston was embarrassing, but the Miners still had a great season buoyed by a 16 game winning streak to close the season, and even against a weakish schedule that should be worth an #8 seed.
But instead UTEP gets the #12 shaft and is now everyone's darling upset pick against #5 Butler. It'll be close, with UTEP 48.8% to win, and they have a real chance in the 2nd round to make the 2nd weekend. But in an allegedly weak tournament field, the Committee downgraded UTEP far too hard for not winning the Conference USA tournament... even though they allegedly weren't factoring in the conference tournaments in their decisions. Right, Dan Guerrero, and I can hit 50 home runs in the Majors left handed.
Vermont. A bit trifling to debate whether a team deserves a #15 or #16 since both get force fed to a top 8 team in round one, but given no #16's ever won while we've seen at least two #15 upsets, it's a difference in scope of hope. And Vermont (#145 per Sagarin) isn't the sort of dead weight that Lehigh (#204) is. Several teams that had a case for #16 got a #15, like Morgan State (#144), North Texas (#153) and Robert Morris (#191). The Catamounts arguably deserved better, and you could make a case of swapping them out for any of those three #15 seeds at #16.
A team like Vermont, which rallied around key contributor Evan Fjeld after the recent death of his mother, could have used more from the Committee than a force-feeding to Syracuse, in which they're a 15 to 1 underdog. But hey, at least the Orange are the most vulnerable #1 seed in the field, right?
Speaking of underdogs facing the gaping maw of death, a 42 to 1 boxing longshot named Buster Douglas lost his mother three weeks before he knocked out heavyweight champ Mike Tyson in Tokyo, Japan to become the new champion back in 1990. So never say never, Catamounts. Your ability to contest shots and get to the line may give you a chance in hell.
Contrary to Popular Belief:
While the favorite, Syracuse is not a huge favorite to make it out of the East Region. Kansas State can definitely give them a game in an Elite Eight matchup, but they could run into trouble before then: #9 Florida State defends well and could give them a matchup problem in round two, plus they would likely only be a 70-75% favorite in the Sweet 16 (Possible opponents: Vanderbilt, Butler, UTEP), meaning the average opponent would have a 25-30% chance of ending their run. Xavier and BYU would also pose a challenge (40% chance of beating the Orange) if either team made a Cinderella run to the Elite Eight. There is a 70.8% chance someone sends Syracuse home before the Final Four.
Watch out for:
BYU: Yes, I still attest they got shafted, but they're one of the region's best teams, and if they can beat Florida and squeeze past Kansas State to make the Sweet 16, they are a dangerous shot to make the Final Four, as they would only be an underdog to Syracuse (44.1%) and a 60-70% favorite versus anyone else.
Minnesota: I counted them out after a blowout loss to Michigan late this season, a game I said the Gophers at least had to play close. But they blew out Iowa and Penn State, then took Michigan State out in OT in the Big Ten tourney and surprisingly blew out Purdue to worm their way into the bubble hunt even despite their eventual blowout loss to Ohio State.
They totally deserved their low-ish #11 seed, but they're a 50-50 shot in round one against #6 Xavier, and can certainly beat #3 Pittsburgh in round two. They become 35-65 underdogs to most likely opponents once they reach the 2nd weekend, but as they showed down the stretch, the Gophers can play up to and beyond their competition. I could easily see BYU and Minnesota clashing in the Sweet 16... not that that's likely, just that it's possible.
Not a prayer:
They got really lucky in receiving a #15 seed they probably didn't deserve, but North Texas is probably going to get run off the floor just as easily by #2 Kansas State as they would have by any #1. NTU is a 17 to 1 longshot to see the 2nd round, and a 22,789 to 1 shot to make the Final Four.
You have a better chance of... passing a kidney stone as a teenager. I was among the 1 in 20,210 who visited a hospital while passing one in high school. Passing a stone really hurts, and you need a lot of hospital-grade drugs to stand the doubling-over, vomit inducing pain it causes.
Compared to that, getting annihilated by 30 points should seem like a breeze for North Texas.
Odds:
1. Syracuse. Sweet 16: 66.3%. Final Four: 5 to 2
2. Kansas State. Sweet 16: 54.9%. Final Four: 3.8 to 1
3. Pittsburgh. Sweet 16: 35.9%. Final Four: 20.3 to 1
4. Vanderbilt. Sweet 16: 32.8%. Final Four: 20.2 to 1
5. Butler. Sweet 16: 27.7%. Final Four: 25.4 to 1
6. Xavier. Sweet 16: 31.1%. Final Four: 16.5 to 1
7. BYU. Sweet 16: 36.6%. Final Four: 6.7 to 1
8. Gonzaga. Sweet 16: 9 to 1. Final Four: 66.5 to 1
9. Florida State. Sweet 16: 22.7%. Final Four: 16.7 to 1
10. Florida. Sweet 16: 12 to 1. Final Four: 91.7 to 1
11. Minnesota. Sweet 16: 30.9%. Final Four: 16.7 to 1
12. UTEP. Sweet 16: 25.8%. Final Four: 29.0 to 1
13. Murray State. Sweet 16: 6 to 1. Final Four: 105.2 to 1
14. Oakland-PA. Sweet 16: 49 to 1. Final Four: 4612.1 to 1
15. North Texas. Sweet 16: 199 to 1. Final Four: 22789.1 to 1
16. Vermont. Sweet 16: 110 to 1. Final Four: 7881.3 to 1
Overseeded:
Pittsburgh. Pomeroy says 8 seed. Sagarin says 5-6 seed. The Committee says 3 seed. The Committee must love when a team loses four of five to close January, including losses to NIT-worthy Seton Hall and South Florida... and listless 50-45 Big East tourney losses to Notre Dame to close your season. Instead of a deserved mouth-punch game with a serious bubble team or 30-ish rank squad, the Panthers get an undeservedly easy game with #14 Oakland. This team can't force turnovers to save their lives and their defense pretty much hangs on hoping their opponents can't hit shots. Their offense relies on getting second chance points and drawing fouls. If both checks fail, they are beatable fodder. Oakland's probably not beating them but #6 Xavier has a good shot at the "upset" (and yes, Xavier would actually be a 57.2% favorite in a round 2 match with Pittsburgh).
Vanderbilt. Every year, Vanderbilt seems to get a seed way higher than they deserve, implying a close, intimate relationship between Vanderbilt's AD (and possibly more attractive female members of his extended family and/or student body) and the Selection Committee. This year a Commodores team that fits as a #7... gets a #4 seed and an easily winnable 1st round matchup with tough but not tough enough #13 Murray State (63.7%). #5 Butler is a 49-51 shot against Vanderbilt, and #12 UTEP would also have a real shot at knocking them out (47.8%).
Even granted that, Vanderbilt has a stronger than deserved shot at the Sweet 16, not because they're good (their defense is ordinary and their offense relies a lot on getting calls and getting to the line) but because they got an undeservedly high seed that makes their first game easier than a deserved 7-10 matchup would have been.
Florida. The Gators probably shouldn't even be in the tournament. They were easily the most dubious at-large selection (#47 Sagarin), made more so by the omission of Virginia Tech (#34). But on top of that, instead of a more deserved #12 seed they get a #10, bypassing a challenging #5 for a more beatable #7. However, karmic justice prevails (or Holy justice if you ask their opponent), because their opponent....
Got the Shaft:
BYU. Yes, Florida gets fed to a BYU team that Sagarin rated #10 and Pomeroy rated #7, and who did not take a loss this year to anyone outside of the field of 65. I'm not sure if the Committee penalized the Mormon Cougars for their religious refusal to play Sundays or not, but BYU was a better fit for a #3 or #4 than the #7 seed.
You can't even argue that the Mountain West was a weak mid-major conference this year given the MWC sent four teams to the NCAA Tournament this year (BYU themselves, New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego State) and a 5th, Colorado State, was at least good enough to get invited to the CBI.
The irony is that this combination of bad seeding actually table-set a 7-10 upset, as BYU is a 73-27 favorite to up-end the Gators. However, instead of a likely matchup with a beatable #5 or #6 in round two, they will probably have to look up at #2 Kansas State, one of the favorites to win the regional, an injustice to a good program that seems to have taken Gonzaga's title of Official Mid-Major Selection Committee Seeding Screwjob Recipient.
Florida State. The best defense in the nation according to Pomeroy took a few late season lumps, including two losses to NIT-bound NC State, and the committee downgraded them to a #9 seed. But aside from their Wolfpack foil, none of those seven late season losses came to anyone outside of the top 20: Two losses to Maryland, two losses to Clemson and a loss to Duke, plus the Duke loss was the only defeat by a double digit margin. Hardly embarrassing losses, and they held serve against unspectacular but solid ACC competition with nine wins after January 4's win over Texas A&M Corpus Christi. FSU probably should have gotten a #7 instead of a #9, and even if they beat Gonzaga (which they have a 62.1% chance to do) they then have to look Syracuse in the eye and pull a big upset to see the 2nd weekend. They have a 33% chance at such an upset, but still.
UTEP. Yes, dropping a load in the Conference USA final to Houston was embarrassing, but the Miners still had a great season buoyed by a 16 game winning streak to close the season, and even against a weakish schedule that should be worth an #8 seed.
But instead UTEP gets the #12 shaft and is now everyone's darling upset pick against #5 Butler. It'll be close, with UTEP 48.8% to win, and they have a real chance in the 2nd round to make the 2nd weekend. But in an allegedly weak tournament field, the Committee downgraded UTEP far too hard for not winning the Conference USA tournament... even though they allegedly weren't factoring in the conference tournaments in their decisions. Right, Dan Guerrero, and I can hit 50 home runs in the Majors left handed.
Vermont. A bit trifling to debate whether a team deserves a #15 or #16 since both get force fed to a top 8 team in round one, but given no #16's ever won while we've seen at least two #15 upsets, it's a difference in scope of hope. And Vermont (#145 per Sagarin) isn't the sort of dead weight that Lehigh (#204) is. Several teams that had a case for #16 got a #15, like Morgan State (#144), North Texas (#153) and Robert Morris (#191). The Catamounts arguably deserved better, and you could make a case of swapping them out for any of those three #15 seeds at #16.
A team like Vermont, which rallied around key contributor Evan Fjeld after the recent death of his mother, could have used more from the Committee than a force-feeding to Syracuse, in which they're a 15 to 1 underdog. But hey, at least the Orange are the most vulnerable #1 seed in the field, right?
Speaking of underdogs facing the gaping maw of death, a 42 to 1 boxing longshot named Buster Douglas lost his mother three weeks before he knocked out heavyweight champ Mike Tyson in Tokyo, Japan to become the new champion back in 1990. So never say never, Catamounts. Your ability to contest shots and get to the line may give you a chance in hell.
Contrary to Popular Belief:
While the favorite, Syracuse is not a huge favorite to make it out of the East Region. Kansas State can definitely give them a game in an Elite Eight matchup, but they could run into trouble before then: #9 Florida State defends well and could give them a matchup problem in round two, plus they would likely only be a 70-75% favorite in the Sweet 16 (Possible opponents: Vanderbilt, Butler, UTEP), meaning the average opponent would have a 25-30% chance of ending their run. Xavier and BYU would also pose a challenge (40% chance of beating the Orange) if either team made a Cinderella run to the Elite Eight. There is a 70.8% chance someone sends Syracuse home before the Final Four.
Watch out for:
BYU: Yes, I still attest they got shafted, but they're one of the region's best teams, and if they can beat Florida and squeeze past Kansas State to make the Sweet 16, they are a dangerous shot to make the Final Four, as they would only be an underdog to Syracuse (44.1%) and a 60-70% favorite versus anyone else.
Minnesota: I counted them out after a blowout loss to Michigan late this season, a game I said the Gophers at least had to play close. But they blew out Iowa and Penn State, then took Michigan State out in OT in the Big Ten tourney and surprisingly blew out Purdue to worm their way into the bubble hunt even despite their eventual blowout loss to Ohio State.
They totally deserved their low-ish #11 seed, but they're a 50-50 shot in round one against #6 Xavier, and can certainly beat #3 Pittsburgh in round two. They become 35-65 underdogs to most likely opponents once they reach the 2nd weekend, but as they showed down the stretch, the Gophers can play up to and beyond their competition. I could easily see BYU and Minnesota clashing in the Sweet 16... not that that's likely, just that it's possible.
Not a prayer:
They got really lucky in receiving a #15 seed they probably didn't deserve, but North Texas is probably going to get run off the floor just as easily by #2 Kansas State as they would have by any #1. NTU is a 17 to 1 longshot to see the 2nd round, and a 22,789 to 1 shot to make the Final Four.
You have a better chance of... passing a kidney stone as a teenager. I was among the 1 in 20,210 who visited a hospital while passing one in high school. Passing a stone really hurts, and you need a lot of hospital-grade drugs to stand the doubling-over, vomit inducing pain it causes.
Compared to that, getting annihilated by 30 points should seem like a breeze for North Texas.
Odds:
1. Syracuse. Sweet 16: 66.3%. Final Four: 5 to 2
2. Kansas State. Sweet 16: 54.9%. Final Four: 3.8 to 1
3. Pittsburgh. Sweet 16: 35.9%. Final Four: 20.3 to 1
4. Vanderbilt. Sweet 16: 32.8%. Final Four: 20.2 to 1
5. Butler. Sweet 16: 27.7%. Final Four: 25.4 to 1
6. Xavier. Sweet 16: 31.1%. Final Four: 16.5 to 1
7. BYU. Sweet 16: 36.6%. Final Four: 6.7 to 1
8. Gonzaga. Sweet 16: 9 to 1. Final Four: 66.5 to 1
9. Florida State. Sweet 16: 22.7%. Final Four: 16.7 to 1
10. Florida. Sweet 16: 12 to 1. Final Four: 91.7 to 1
11. Minnesota. Sweet 16: 30.9%. Final Four: 16.7 to 1
12. UTEP. Sweet 16: 25.8%. Final Four: 29.0 to 1
13. Murray State. Sweet 16: 6 to 1. Final Four: 105.2 to 1
14. Oakland-PA. Sweet 16: 49 to 1. Final Four: 4612.1 to 1
15. North Texas. Sweet 16: 199 to 1. Final Four: 22789.1 to 1
16. Vermont. Sweet 16: 110 to 1. Final Four: 7881.3 to 1
2010 NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Regional
The ratings indicate Kansas is probably the favorite to win this thing, so you can probably guess that I figure them as a Final Four team. At 48.3% to win the Midwest Region, no one in particular poses a serious challenge to their potential title run. But that doesn't mean we can't go mining for upsets and bad seeds. And wow, there are a lot, as Kansas was handed a fairly easy bracket full of overseeded teams.
Overseeded:
Ohio State: Pomeroy really likes Ohio State, a good shooting offensive team that plays a clean game but struggles for second chance points. Sagarin figures them around 11th in the country, which hangs them around low-3 seed territory. Yet they get seeded at #2, on par with West Virginia and Kansas State. I can understand a tough Big Ten Schedule and winning the Big Ten Tournament bolstering their profile except the Big Ten wasn't actually that tough this year, nor was their non-con. Pomeroy ranked their 28-7 schedule in the 40's and Sagarin pegged it in the 50's. If you wanted a strong team with several top 25 wins (OSU has four), then why not Baylor (who has six, but gets a #3 seed)? I still peg them as a dark horse candidate that has a good chance to face Kansas in the Elite Eight but they're going to find several tough outs along the way, and there's a 61% chance someone gets them before then.
Michigan State: Sounds like I'm being hard on the Big Ten this year, sure, but I had turnover prone MSU scraping into the Top 25, especially given a similar schedule, a quick Big Ten tourney exit to Minnesota and several late season losses and early losses to what turned out to be pretender teams from North Carolina and Florida. The only truly impressive win on their resume was a scrappy effort over Wisconsin. The Committee says they're a #5 but I see them as closer to a #7 than a #6. They can get out of the first round but I don't see them winning a likely 2nd round match with Maryland.
Oklahoma State: A comparitively weak defensive team that struggles to contest shots, the Cowboys battled down an up and down stretch before bowing out of the Big 12 Tourney with a 22-10 record. Big wins over Baylor and Kansas (!) late in the season looked very good, but listless losses to Texas and Texas A&M, as well as a loss to Texas Tech (yikes) looked very not so good. A #7 seed was a bit of a gift for a team that was probably more of a #9, and chances are good that they may not make it out of the 1st round.
UNLV: Yes, I'm not above cutting down my hometown alma mater. Lon Kruger's built himself a good, solid program that controls the ball and plays solid defense. But they had a big of a weak-ish non-con schedule and a big win over BYU came with two losses to lowly Utah and another to a weak USC squad. As usual, they made a tourney run on their home court, but this time fell flat in the final against a San Diego State squad they could have beaten. The Committee calls them an #8 but I never had them higher than #10. Once they closed the season I had them on the bubble, close to #11 or #12. I think they can beat Northern Iowa, but previous squads had a better chance against Kansas than this undersized, unspectacular one.
New Mexico State: Even after upsetting Utah State to win the WAC, I did not peg NMSU any higher than a #13 seed, probably more like #14. #12 is a seed reserved for teams around the at-large bubble, ranked around the 40's and 50's. Sagarin has New Mexico State at #97 and Pomeroy has them at #115. Once you get into double digit seeds, I guess it ultimately doesn't matter where you're seeded since you're an underdog out of the gate. But New Mexico State was way overseeded, and certainly isn't likely to pull the fabled 5-12 upset against Michigan State. They play weak defense and are hopeless on the boards against a competent rebounding team, let alone a good one.
Got the Shaft:
Georgia Tech: Despite a spate of late season losses, I didn't exactly have Georgia Tech on the bubble and neither did the ratings. Pomeroy had them #27 and Sagarin #30, right around #7-8 seed territory. Tech had one of the nation's toughest schedules, and nine of their 11 losses came against top 50 teams (ten if you count Wake Forest, which Pomeroy has at #51). Six came against top 25 teams and two, including Tech's ACC Tourney loss, came against Duke. Along the way, they beat Duke in another matchup, as well as Clemson, Wake and Maryland (in the ACC Tourney) while holding serve against their weaker foes: Only two foes rated below #51 beat them (Georgia and Virginia). Not exactly weaker at-large #10 seed material. The good news for Tech is that they're the favorite anyway in a winnable game with #7 Oklahoma State, and either way they'd be in line for a 2nd rounder with #2 Ohio State. But a #7 may have gotten them a somewhat easier first round matchup.
Contrary to Popular Belief:
Lon Kruger is not on the prowl for another team to jump ship to. UNLV's forthcoming elimination will end his 6th season with the Rebels, his longest tenure with a team since his six years with Florida... and that tenure ended with him getting subtlely run out of town after a 12-16 season. He's reportedly very happy with his situation at UNLV and has been for years, probably the most secure situation he's had in his career. That's not to say he won't ever leave for the right opportunity, but that's nowhere on the horizon and won't be for some time.
Michigan State is notorious for looking ugly in the regular season against a tough schedule and then unloading in the NCAA Tournament against non-battle-hardened foes. However, they're going to need to take care of the ball (their 21.3% turnover rate is 222nd out of 347 D-I teams) and they have to hit their free throws (68.1% as a team, 206th) to do it. This sort of ugliness is atypical of those Tom Izzo Spartanerrela teams.
Not so Contrary to Popular Belief:
Kansas may have arguably the easiest region of any #1 seed in the field. No one in the region has more than a 30% chance (Ohio State) of upending one of the big favorites to cut down the nets in Indy next month.
Not a prayer:
Pretty much anyone in this field not named Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown or Maryland. The last three are somewhat dim dark horses themselves to the Jayhawks. The chance of someone other than those four crashing the Final Four? 16.6%
Lehigh is probably the weakest of the #16 seeds (even though Arkansas Pine Bluff's million to one hopes improved to around 303,000 to 1 with their Play-In victory on Tuesday), and with a 49 to 1 longshot to up-end Kansas, their overall chances of making the Final Four are 94,985 to 1.
You have a better chance of... escaping the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament with a perfect office pool bracket. Yes, whether with strong knowledge of the game or picking the favorites of picking the better mascot, your typical chances of being perfect in round one are 13,039 to 1. My picks based on Sagarin Predictor ratings and probability metrics, assuming the probabilities are dead-on, would be slightly better... about 10,650 to 1.
Watch out for:
Uh... highlights from the next Kansas blowout? There really aren't any big surprises distinctly possible in this bracket. Georgia Tech at #10 is a 57-43 shot to up-end #7 Oklahoma State, and #11 San Diego State has a reasonable 41% chance at upsetting #6 Tennessee. Both also have real shots at 2nd round upsets in the 32-35% range as well. And if Northern Iowa wins their 47-53 matchup with UNLV, their Four-Corners-like tempo could wreak havoc with Kansas and could threaten an epic upset if they thread the needle (George Mason used a similar slow-tempo approach in their 2006 Final Four run).
But in all likelihood, the favorites should otherwise hold serve, making this one of the more ho-hum brackets unless somebody goes crazy.
Odds:
1. Kansas. Sweet 16: 83.6%. Final Four: 6 to 5 (48.3%)
2. Ohio State. Sweet 16: 62.6%. Final Four: 5.4 to 1
3. Georgetown. Sweet 16: 53.6%. Final Four: 9.1 to 1
4. Maryland. Sweet 16: 51.6%. Final Four: 9.5 to 1
5. Michigan State. Sweet 16: 41.3%. Final Four: 17.8 to 1
6. Tennessee. Sweet 16: 27.5%. Final Four: 28.3 to 1
7. Oklahoma State. Sweet 16: 6 to 1. Final Four: 76.8 to 1
8. UNLV. Sweet 16: 10 to 1. Final Four: 79.0 to 1
9. Northern Iowa. Sweet 16: 13 to 1. Final Four: 110.1 to 1
10. Georgia Tech. Sweet 16: 22.5%. Final Four: 32.5 to 1
11. San Diego State. Sweet 16: 5 to 1. Final Four: 79.9 to 1
12. New Mexico State. Sweet 16: 47 to 1. Final Four: 5538.2 to 1
13. Houston. Sweet 16: 19 to 1. Final Four: 843.4 to 1
14. Ohio University. Sweet 16: 32 to 1. Final Four: 2224.2 to 1
15. UC Santa Barbara. Sweet 16: 99 to 1. Final Four: 15400.1 to 1
16. Lehigh. Sweet 16: 499 to 1. Final Four: 94985 to 1
Overseeded:
Ohio State: Pomeroy really likes Ohio State, a good shooting offensive team that plays a clean game but struggles for second chance points. Sagarin figures them around 11th in the country, which hangs them around low-3 seed territory. Yet they get seeded at #2, on par with West Virginia and Kansas State. I can understand a tough Big Ten Schedule and winning the Big Ten Tournament bolstering their profile except the Big Ten wasn't actually that tough this year, nor was their non-con. Pomeroy ranked their 28-7 schedule in the 40's and Sagarin pegged it in the 50's. If you wanted a strong team with several top 25 wins (OSU has four), then why not Baylor (who has six, but gets a #3 seed)? I still peg them as a dark horse candidate that has a good chance to face Kansas in the Elite Eight but they're going to find several tough outs along the way, and there's a 61% chance someone gets them before then.
Michigan State: Sounds like I'm being hard on the Big Ten this year, sure, but I had turnover prone MSU scraping into the Top 25, especially given a similar schedule, a quick Big Ten tourney exit to Minnesota and several late season losses and early losses to what turned out to be pretender teams from North Carolina and Florida. The only truly impressive win on their resume was a scrappy effort over Wisconsin. The Committee says they're a #5 but I see them as closer to a #7 than a #6. They can get out of the first round but I don't see them winning a likely 2nd round match with Maryland.
Oklahoma State: A comparitively weak defensive team that struggles to contest shots, the Cowboys battled down an up and down stretch before bowing out of the Big 12 Tourney with a 22-10 record. Big wins over Baylor and Kansas (!) late in the season looked very good, but listless losses to Texas and Texas A&M, as well as a loss to Texas Tech (yikes) looked very not so good. A #7 seed was a bit of a gift for a team that was probably more of a #9, and chances are good that they may not make it out of the 1st round.
UNLV: Yes, I'm not above cutting down my hometown alma mater. Lon Kruger's built himself a good, solid program that controls the ball and plays solid defense. But they had a big of a weak-ish non-con schedule and a big win over BYU came with two losses to lowly Utah and another to a weak USC squad. As usual, they made a tourney run on their home court, but this time fell flat in the final against a San Diego State squad they could have beaten. The Committee calls them an #8 but I never had them higher than #10. Once they closed the season I had them on the bubble, close to #11 or #12. I think they can beat Northern Iowa, but previous squads had a better chance against Kansas than this undersized, unspectacular one.
New Mexico State: Even after upsetting Utah State to win the WAC, I did not peg NMSU any higher than a #13 seed, probably more like #14. #12 is a seed reserved for teams around the at-large bubble, ranked around the 40's and 50's. Sagarin has New Mexico State at #97 and Pomeroy has them at #115. Once you get into double digit seeds, I guess it ultimately doesn't matter where you're seeded since you're an underdog out of the gate. But New Mexico State was way overseeded, and certainly isn't likely to pull the fabled 5-12 upset against Michigan State. They play weak defense and are hopeless on the boards against a competent rebounding team, let alone a good one.
Got the Shaft:
Georgia Tech: Despite a spate of late season losses, I didn't exactly have Georgia Tech on the bubble and neither did the ratings. Pomeroy had them #27 and Sagarin #30, right around #7-8 seed territory. Tech had one of the nation's toughest schedules, and nine of their 11 losses came against top 50 teams (ten if you count Wake Forest, which Pomeroy has at #51). Six came against top 25 teams and two, including Tech's ACC Tourney loss, came against Duke. Along the way, they beat Duke in another matchup, as well as Clemson, Wake and Maryland (in the ACC Tourney) while holding serve against their weaker foes: Only two foes rated below #51 beat them (Georgia and Virginia). Not exactly weaker at-large #10 seed material. The good news for Tech is that they're the favorite anyway in a winnable game with #7 Oklahoma State, and either way they'd be in line for a 2nd rounder with #2 Ohio State. But a #7 may have gotten them a somewhat easier first round matchup.
Contrary to Popular Belief:
Lon Kruger is not on the prowl for another team to jump ship to. UNLV's forthcoming elimination will end his 6th season with the Rebels, his longest tenure with a team since his six years with Florida... and that tenure ended with him getting subtlely run out of town after a 12-16 season. He's reportedly very happy with his situation at UNLV and has been for years, probably the most secure situation he's had in his career. That's not to say he won't ever leave for the right opportunity, but that's nowhere on the horizon and won't be for some time.
Michigan State is notorious for looking ugly in the regular season against a tough schedule and then unloading in the NCAA Tournament against non-battle-hardened foes. However, they're going to need to take care of the ball (their 21.3% turnover rate is 222nd out of 347 D-I teams) and they have to hit their free throws (68.1% as a team, 206th) to do it. This sort of ugliness is atypical of those Tom Izzo Spartanerrela teams.
Not so Contrary to Popular Belief:
Kansas may have arguably the easiest region of any #1 seed in the field. No one in the region has more than a 30% chance (Ohio State) of upending one of the big favorites to cut down the nets in Indy next month.
Not a prayer:
Pretty much anyone in this field not named Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown or Maryland. The last three are somewhat dim dark horses themselves to the Jayhawks. The chance of someone other than those four crashing the Final Four? 16.6%
Lehigh is probably the weakest of the #16 seeds (even though Arkansas Pine Bluff's million to one hopes improved to around 303,000 to 1 with their Play-In victory on Tuesday), and with a 49 to 1 longshot to up-end Kansas, their overall chances of making the Final Four are 94,985 to 1.
You have a better chance of... escaping the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament with a perfect office pool bracket. Yes, whether with strong knowledge of the game or picking the favorites of picking the better mascot, your typical chances of being perfect in round one are 13,039 to 1. My picks based on Sagarin Predictor ratings and probability metrics, assuming the probabilities are dead-on, would be slightly better... about 10,650 to 1.
Watch out for:
Uh... highlights from the next Kansas blowout? There really aren't any big surprises distinctly possible in this bracket. Georgia Tech at #10 is a 57-43 shot to up-end #7 Oklahoma State, and #11 San Diego State has a reasonable 41% chance at upsetting #6 Tennessee. Both also have real shots at 2nd round upsets in the 32-35% range as well. And if Northern Iowa wins their 47-53 matchup with UNLV, their Four-Corners-like tempo could wreak havoc with Kansas and could threaten an epic upset if they thread the needle (George Mason used a similar slow-tempo approach in their 2006 Final Four run).
But in all likelihood, the favorites should otherwise hold serve, making this one of the more ho-hum brackets unless somebody goes crazy.
Odds:
1. Kansas. Sweet 16: 83.6%. Final Four: 6 to 5 (48.3%)
2. Ohio State. Sweet 16: 62.6%. Final Four: 5.4 to 1
3. Georgetown. Sweet 16: 53.6%. Final Four: 9.1 to 1
4. Maryland. Sweet 16: 51.6%. Final Four: 9.5 to 1
5. Michigan State. Sweet 16: 41.3%. Final Four: 17.8 to 1
6. Tennessee. Sweet 16: 27.5%. Final Four: 28.3 to 1
7. Oklahoma State. Sweet 16: 6 to 1. Final Four: 76.8 to 1
8. UNLV. Sweet 16: 10 to 1. Final Four: 79.0 to 1
9. Northern Iowa. Sweet 16: 13 to 1. Final Four: 110.1 to 1
10. Georgia Tech. Sweet 16: 22.5%. Final Four: 32.5 to 1
11. San Diego State. Sweet 16: 5 to 1. Final Four: 79.9 to 1
12. New Mexico State. Sweet 16: 47 to 1. Final Four: 5538.2 to 1
13. Houston. Sweet 16: 19 to 1. Final Four: 843.4 to 1
14. Ohio University. Sweet 16: 32 to 1. Final Four: 2224.2 to 1
15. UC Santa Barbara. Sweet 16: 99 to 1. Final Four: 15400.1 to 1
16. Lehigh. Sweet 16: 499 to 1. Final Four: 94985 to 1
Monday, March 15, 2010
2010 NCAA Tournament Preview: South Regional
SOUTH REGION:
Duke dominates a top heavy yet mediocre South Regional, with little more than a couple of dark horse challengers en route to a fairly likely trip to the Final Four.
Overseeded:
Notre Dame: The Irish weren't exactly on the bubble (they hung firmly in the 35-40 range for most of the season), but they weren't exactly #6 seed material either, as a gruesome midseason 3-7 Big East conference stretch showed with losses to NIT-worthy Cincinnati, St John's and Seton Hall as well as to lowly Rutgers. Despite the Conference's alleged overlooking of a team's last 12 games, the only real indication of quality was a six game winning streak that bookended Notre Dame's season before falling to West Virginia in the Big East Tournament. Now they get a matchup with a #11 Old Dominion team that could well beat them.
Richmond: This is not to say that the Spiders don't deserve some credit for one of their best seasons in a long time. But the Spiders have only three top 25 wins, can't rebound on the offensive end to save their lives and, aside from their ball control, the only element of their game that can be considered "good" is their ability to contest shots on the defensive end and generate steals. Defense wins championships, sure, but this isn't the A-10, and Richmond is not a #7 seed. They probably should switch seeds with another team that....
Got the Shaft:
St Mary's (CA): Like Richmond, the #10 Gaels had a fine season, in their case despite the loss of star guard Paddy Mills, showing that they were not a one man show and that they had the shooting accuracy and perimeter game to play big time basketball en route to the WCC title. A #10 beating a #7 isn't much of an upset, as like the #8 vs #9 matchup it's considered more of a matchup of equals, but the Gaels are probably the favorite against Richmond, and #2 Villanova is no lock to walk over them en route to the Sweet 16. But the Gaels probably should have been a #7 or #8, not a #10.
Utah State: Okay, jobbing in your conference title game to New Mexico State is never a good move, but the Aggies were one of best outside shooting and ball control teams in the country, and a strong rebounding team as well. That should be worth at least a #10, especially if you were going to reward lucky shot New Mexico State (who may not even be a top 100 team) with a #12 seed. Giving Utah State a #12 and a first round date with #5 Texas A&M only makes sense if you're sowing the seeds for a classic 5-12 upset, as A&M has a problem with hitting free throws, getting stuffed inside and... guess what... defending three point shooting teams. Uh ohs.
And yes, that's one of your two upset picks. The other as mentioned is #11 Old Dominion, who was seeded right but is facing a weak #6 in Notre Dame. ODU has one of the best defenses in the country and is the best offensive rebounding team in the country according to Pomeroy, which can neutralize the Irish's effective offense.
Contrary to Popular Belief:
Villanova belongs at #2 and Baylor's a legit #3. People look at Nova's six late season losses in ten games, hold their nose and insist Nova is #2 in a different sense than the 2nd South Regional seed. But three of those losses came to top 15 powerhouses (Georgetown, Syracuse and West Virginia), a 4th came to top 20 Pittsburgh, and a 5th came to down but still competitive Connecticut. The 6th was a four point loss in their opening Big East Tournament game against top 30 Marquette. And during that stretch, they lost by double digits only twice (Georgetown and Syracuse) and beat West Virginia in another matchup. Finally, keep in mind... with eight legitimate bids, the Big East is probably the best conference in college basketball this year. 4-6 to close the season looks a lot worse in Conference USA than it does in an eight-bid Big East.
As for Baylor, I have no idea other than bias towards historical reputation why people are down on Baylor being a #3. They closed the regular season on a 9-2 run that included two wins against Texas (and they picked up a 3rd win over Texas in their first Big 12 Tournament game), another against a decent Texas A&M squad and another against a top 25 Missouri squad. Their eventual Big 12 tourney exit came against a top 10 Kansas State squad. Perhaps a loss to iffy Oklahoma State and a midseason job to lowly Colorado looked a bit poor, but Baylor's had one of the most consistent performances in a year full of inconsistent seasons. They have one of the top all-around offensive squads in the nation and can definitely hang with the top 10-15 teams in the country.
Not a prayer:
The Play-In Game is a joke, meant to a) protect all 34 at-large bids and b) siphon out one of two somewhat embarrassing 16 seeds, basically the lowest of the bunch, two automatic bid teams that, if the Committee had any say in the matter, would be left out of the dance.
It ultimately accomplishes little: The winner typically has little to no chance against the #1 seed two days later. Amidst the 96 team expansion proposal is an alternate proposal to expand the tournament to a more modest 68 teams and have four 16-seed play-in games. This would at least make some sense as it would give every 16 seed a chance to win one NCAA Tournament game before getting fed to the lions.
Meanwhile, this year's participants: Winthrop, the small South Carolina school from the Big South Conference that has made eight previous appearances and even scored a 1st round upset over Notre Dame as a #11 seed in 2007. They are definitely not that good this year, relying on their solid defense and ball control with a slow-ish tempo to disguise their gag-worthy lack of accurate shooting. The other foil: Arkansas-Pine Bluff, who began their season with a rigorous non-conference gang beating ERRRRRR schedule of mid-major and power conference foes that left them 0-11 going into conference play... where they channeled the hard lessons of that non-conference slate and unloaded on the lowly Southwestern Athletic Conference to the tune of a 14-4 conference record, before running the table in the SWAC Tournament to pick up the bid and a trip to Dayton to try and put some shine on their ugly 17-15 record.
The chances for a 16 seed making the Final Four are already long, since after all no #16 has ever beaten a #1 in the 1st round in 100 tries, so winning four games is kind of hard if you can't win the 1st. But the play-in game helps send the astronomical odds of these two teams into the next galaxy, as they each stand a competitive chance of beating the other (Winthrop currently is a 54.5% favorite to beat Pine Bluff) which virtually doubles each team's longshot odds.
Their chances look like the odds of winning a state lottery. Winthrop is a 1835 to 1 longshot just to make the Sweet 16. Their odds of making the Final Four?
889,564 to 1.
And guess what? Those are better odds than Arkansas Pine Bluff's. Is Pine Bluff a one in a million shot? Actually, being a one in a million shot would give them a slightly better chance of making the Final Four. Their odds stand at 1,065,522 to 1.
Makes #15 Robert Morris seem like a good shot at 53,834 to 1, doesn't it?
Don't expect any Cinderellas:
The top 4 seeds are comfortable favorites to make the Sweet 16, and chances aren't likely that Duke's rivals will knock them off en route to the Final Four. The road to Indianapolis is clear for Coach K and the Blue Devils.
Odds:
1. Duke. Sweet 16: 76.9%. Final Four: 6 to 5 (46.6%)
2. Villanova. Sweet 16: 62.5%. Final Four: 13 to 2
3. Baylor. Sweet 16: 55.6%. Final Four: 15 to 2
4. Purdue. Sweet 16: 42.7%. Final Four: 12.1 to 1
5. Texas A&M. Sweet 16: 24.8%. Final Four: 31.3 to 1
6. Notre Dame. Sweet 16: 18.0%. Final Four: 58.1 to 1
7. Richmond. Sweet 16: 14.2%. Final Four: 86.3 to 1
8. California. Sweet 16: 15.6%. Final Four: 20.8 to 1
9. Louisville. Sweet 16: 13 to 1. Final Four: 69.3 to 1
10. St Mary's CA. Sweet 16: 22.7%. Final Four: 36.6 to 1
11. Old Dominion. Sweet 16: 22.8%. Final Four: 37.2 to 1
12. Utah State. Sweet 16: 23.4%. Final Four: 35.0 to 1
13. Siena. Sweet 16: 10 to 1. Final Four: 219.3 to 1
14. Sam Houston State. Sweet 16: 27 to 1. Final Four: 1393.9 to 1
15. Robert Morris. Sweet 16: 166 to 1. Final Four: 53834.2 to 1
16a. Winthrop. Sweet 16: 1834 to 1. Final Four: 889563.7 to 1
16b. Arkansas Pine Bluff. Sweet 16: 2197 to 1. Final Four: 1065521.6 to 1
Duke dominates a top heavy yet mediocre South Regional, with little more than a couple of dark horse challengers en route to a fairly likely trip to the Final Four.
Overseeded:
Notre Dame: The Irish weren't exactly on the bubble (they hung firmly in the 35-40 range for most of the season), but they weren't exactly #6 seed material either, as a gruesome midseason 3-7 Big East conference stretch showed with losses to NIT-worthy Cincinnati, St John's and Seton Hall as well as to lowly Rutgers. Despite the Conference's alleged overlooking of a team's last 12 games, the only real indication of quality was a six game winning streak that bookended Notre Dame's season before falling to West Virginia in the Big East Tournament. Now they get a matchup with a #11 Old Dominion team that could well beat them.
Richmond: This is not to say that the Spiders don't deserve some credit for one of their best seasons in a long time. But the Spiders have only three top 25 wins, can't rebound on the offensive end to save their lives and, aside from their ball control, the only element of their game that can be considered "good" is their ability to contest shots on the defensive end and generate steals. Defense wins championships, sure, but this isn't the A-10, and Richmond is not a #7 seed. They probably should switch seeds with another team that....
Got the Shaft:
St Mary's (CA): Like Richmond, the #10 Gaels had a fine season, in their case despite the loss of star guard Paddy Mills, showing that they were not a one man show and that they had the shooting accuracy and perimeter game to play big time basketball en route to the WCC title. A #10 beating a #7 isn't much of an upset, as like the #8 vs #9 matchup it's considered more of a matchup of equals, but the Gaels are probably the favorite against Richmond, and #2 Villanova is no lock to walk over them en route to the Sweet 16. But the Gaels probably should have been a #7 or #8, not a #10.
Utah State: Okay, jobbing in your conference title game to New Mexico State is never a good move, but the Aggies were one of best outside shooting and ball control teams in the country, and a strong rebounding team as well. That should be worth at least a #10, especially if you were going to reward lucky shot New Mexico State (who may not even be a top 100 team) with a #12 seed. Giving Utah State a #12 and a first round date with #5 Texas A&M only makes sense if you're sowing the seeds for a classic 5-12 upset, as A&M has a problem with hitting free throws, getting stuffed inside and... guess what... defending three point shooting teams. Uh ohs.
And yes, that's one of your two upset picks. The other as mentioned is #11 Old Dominion, who was seeded right but is facing a weak #6 in Notre Dame. ODU has one of the best defenses in the country and is the best offensive rebounding team in the country according to Pomeroy, which can neutralize the Irish's effective offense.
Contrary to Popular Belief:
Villanova belongs at #2 and Baylor's a legit #3. People look at Nova's six late season losses in ten games, hold their nose and insist Nova is #2 in a different sense than the 2nd South Regional seed. But three of those losses came to top 15 powerhouses (Georgetown, Syracuse and West Virginia), a 4th came to top 20 Pittsburgh, and a 5th came to down but still competitive Connecticut. The 6th was a four point loss in their opening Big East Tournament game against top 30 Marquette. And during that stretch, they lost by double digits only twice (Georgetown and Syracuse) and beat West Virginia in another matchup. Finally, keep in mind... with eight legitimate bids, the Big East is probably the best conference in college basketball this year. 4-6 to close the season looks a lot worse in Conference USA than it does in an eight-bid Big East.
As for Baylor, I have no idea other than bias towards historical reputation why people are down on Baylor being a #3. They closed the regular season on a 9-2 run that included two wins against Texas (and they picked up a 3rd win over Texas in their first Big 12 Tournament game), another against a decent Texas A&M squad and another against a top 25 Missouri squad. Their eventual Big 12 tourney exit came against a top 10 Kansas State squad. Perhaps a loss to iffy Oklahoma State and a midseason job to lowly Colorado looked a bit poor, but Baylor's had one of the most consistent performances in a year full of inconsistent seasons. They have one of the top all-around offensive squads in the nation and can definitely hang with the top 10-15 teams in the country.
Not a prayer:
The Play-In Game is a joke, meant to a) protect all 34 at-large bids and b) siphon out one of two somewhat embarrassing 16 seeds, basically the lowest of the bunch, two automatic bid teams that, if the Committee had any say in the matter, would be left out of the dance.
It ultimately accomplishes little: The winner typically has little to no chance against the #1 seed two days later. Amidst the 96 team expansion proposal is an alternate proposal to expand the tournament to a more modest 68 teams and have four 16-seed play-in games. This would at least make some sense as it would give every 16 seed a chance to win one NCAA Tournament game before getting fed to the lions.
Meanwhile, this year's participants: Winthrop, the small South Carolina school from the Big South Conference that has made eight previous appearances and even scored a 1st round upset over Notre Dame as a #11 seed in 2007. They are definitely not that good this year, relying on their solid defense and ball control with a slow-ish tempo to disguise their gag-worthy lack of accurate shooting. The other foil: Arkansas-Pine Bluff, who began their season with a rigorous non-conference gang beating ERRRRRR schedule of mid-major and power conference foes that left them 0-11 going into conference play... where they channeled the hard lessons of that non-conference slate and unloaded on the lowly Southwestern Athletic Conference to the tune of a 14-4 conference record, before running the table in the SWAC Tournament to pick up the bid and a trip to Dayton to try and put some shine on their ugly 17-15 record.
The chances for a 16 seed making the Final Four are already long, since after all no #16 has ever beaten a #1 in the 1st round in 100 tries, so winning four games is kind of hard if you can't win the 1st. But the play-in game helps send the astronomical odds of these two teams into the next galaxy, as they each stand a competitive chance of beating the other (Winthrop currently is a 54.5% favorite to beat Pine Bluff) which virtually doubles each team's longshot odds.
Their chances look like the odds of winning a state lottery. Winthrop is a 1835 to 1 longshot just to make the Sweet 16. Their odds of making the Final Four?
889,564 to 1.
And guess what? Those are better odds than Arkansas Pine Bluff's. Is Pine Bluff a one in a million shot? Actually, being a one in a million shot would give them a slightly better chance of making the Final Four. Their odds stand at 1,065,522 to 1.
Makes #15 Robert Morris seem like a good shot at 53,834 to 1, doesn't it?
Don't expect any Cinderellas:
The top 4 seeds are comfortable favorites to make the Sweet 16, and chances aren't likely that Duke's rivals will knock them off en route to the Final Four. The road to Indianapolis is clear for Coach K and the Blue Devils.
Odds:
1. Duke. Sweet 16: 76.9%. Final Four: 6 to 5 (46.6%)
2. Villanova. Sweet 16: 62.5%. Final Four: 13 to 2
3. Baylor. Sweet 16: 55.6%. Final Four: 15 to 2
4. Purdue. Sweet 16: 42.7%. Final Four: 12.1 to 1
5. Texas A&M. Sweet 16: 24.8%. Final Four: 31.3 to 1
6. Notre Dame. Sweet 16: 18.0%. Final Four: 58.1 to 1
7. Richmond. Sweet 16: 14.2%. Final Four: 86.3 to 1
8. California. Sweet 16: 15.6%. Final Four: 20.8 to 1
9. Louisville. Sweet 16: 13 to 1. Final Four: 69.3 to 1
10. St Mary's CA. Sweet 16: 22.7%. Final Four: 36.6 to 1
11. Old Dominion. Sweet 16: 22.8%. Final Four: 37.2 to 1
12. Utah State. Sweet 16: 23.4%. Final Four: 35.0 to 1
13. Siena. Sweet 16: 10 to 1. Final Four: 219.3 to 1
14. Sam Houston State. Sweet 16: 27 to 1. Final Four: 1393.9 to 1
15. Robert Morris. Sweet 16: 166 to 1. Final Four: 53834.2 to 1
16a. Winthrop. Sweet 16: 1834 to 1. Final Four: 889563.7 to 1
16b. Arkansas Pine Bluff. Sweet 16: 2197 to 1. Final Four: 1065521.6 to 1
2010 NCAA Tournament Preview: East Regional
First of all, there's no argument from me about the #1 seeds. All deserve them, and I'd say three of the four #2's are legit as well. Kentucky is no exception, but thanks to some underseeding, they've got what actually looks like the toughest bracket of the four #1 seeds.
Overrated:
New Mexico. The media darling of the late college seasons got a lot of hype for a 3 seed and despite a semifinal Mountain West Tournament loss to San Diego State, they got it, the lack of stuffing to their 29-4 record makes them little more than a padded #6. This is going to prove all the more awkward should they face a likely matchup with legitimate #6 Marquette, or a legitimate #11 in Washington that has the speed and stamina to play like a top 25 team.
Wake Forest: I had the defense-minded Demon Deacons in by the skin of their at-large teeth after an ugly conclusion to their season (1-5), but the Committee thought them more of a #9. That's a shame, because their opponent....
Got the Shaft:
Texas: From my view, this region has three #4 seeds. It's just that only one of them got an actual #4 (Wisconsin), one got seeded an acceptable shade low (#5 Temple) and the other is #8 seed Texas. I'm not sure if the Committee saw their nine late season losses (7 of 9 which BTW came to top 25 caliber teams) and, forgetting that Texas plays in a tough Big 12 Conference, figured that the Longhorns were stumbling. Texas could easily go Harrison Bergeron with a higher seed and make it to the second weekend. But as it stands, they get a surprisingly beatable Wake team and then are slated to get fed to a seemingly unfair 2nd round matchup with Kentucky that's going to be a lot more competitive than people may think, and certainly moreso than the Wildcats would like.
Missouri: One of the nation's best defenses took the pipe in the Big 12 Tourney against Nebraska and despite Dan Guerrero's assurances that the Committee downplays or even ignores the last 12 games of the season, the Tigers were given a #10 seed on the strength of a couple of embarrassing mid-season slip ups (Oral Roberts and a poor Oklahoma team), that Nebraska loss and three losses to top Big 12 teams (Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas). Boy, is #7 Clemson going to be upset when they realize their #10 seed opponent is in fact a tough underseeded equal, and if I'm #2 West Virginia, I don't get too cocky about easily making the 2nd weekend.
Contrary to popular belief:
Cornell did not get overseeded. Sagarin has the deliberately paced but offensively talented Big Red around 50, which is right below the at-large cutoff point. This is a legitimately good team hidden in a mostly weak Ivy League (though Harvard had a good season and Princeton came on late in the year), and while their chances of beating top 20 Temple are dim, they certainly deserve to get seeded as high as 12.
Not a prayer:
East Tennessee State is the strongest #16 in the field but has a 7.3% chance of beating Kentucky. #15 Morgan State isn't much better, with only a 7.4% chance of ousting #2 West Virginia. ETSU has less than a 9600 to 1 chance of reaching Indianapolis, but Morgan State is the longer shot at 10700+ to 1.
You have a better chance of... dying of a drug overdose between the ages of 35 and 44. The odds of that are 7877 to 1.
Watch out for:
Wisconsin. Ken Pomeroy actually has the Badgers rated 3rd in the nation, while Sagarin has them at a more reasonable 14. The defense-minded Badgers have one of their best offensive squads in years, great at controlling the ball (their 15.1% turnover rate is 3rd best in the country) while their defense allows the fewest offensive rebounds per possession in the country at 25.8%. The Badgers are going to be a tough out for everybody, and has a very real chance of ousting Kentucky should they meet in the Sweet 16. A berth in the Final Four is not an unrealistic possibility.
Odds:
1. Kentucky. Sweet 16: 55.7%. Final Four: 4.2 to 1
2. West Virginia. Sweet 16: 53.8%. Final Four: 4.3 to 1
3. New Mexico. Sweet 16: 31.7%. Final Four: 28.3 to 1
4. Wisconsin. Sweet 16: 61.9%. Final Four: 4.1 to 1
5. Temple. Sweet 16: 26.9%. Final Four: 22.2 to 1
6. Marquette. Sweet 16: 32.7%. Final Four: 17.7 to 1
7. Clemson. Sweet 16: 22.4%. Final Four: 15.9 to 1
8. Texas. Sweet 16: 34.3%. Final Four: 8.7 to 1
9. Wake Forest. Sweet 16: 9.2%. Final Four: 87.9 to 1
10. Missouri. Sweet 16: 23.1%. Final Four: 15.1 to 1
11. Washington. Sweet 16: 30.7%. Final Four: 20.0 to 1
12. Cornell. Sweet 16: 12 to 1. Final Four: 236.3 to 1
13. Wofford. Sweet 16: 27 to 1. Final Four: 945.6 to 1
14. Montana. Sweet 16: 20 to 1. Final Four: 1014.1 to 1
15. Morgan State. Sweet 16: 143 to 1. Final Four: 10732.5 to 1
16. East Tennessee State: Sweet 16: 125 to 1. Final Four: 9667.1 to 1
Overrated:
New Mexico. The media darling of the late college seasons got a lot of hype for a 3 seed and despite a semifinal Mountain West Tournament loss to San Diego State, they got it, the lack of stuffing to their 29-4 record makes them little more than a padded #6. This is going to prove all the more awkward should they face a likely matchup with legitimate #6 Marquette, or a legitimate #11 in Washington that has the speed and stamina to play like a top 25 team.
Wake Forest: I had the defense-minded Demon Deacons in by the skin of their at-large teeth after an ugly conclusion to their season (1-5), but the Committee thought them more of a #9. That's a shame, because their opponent....
Got the Shaft:
Texas: From my view, this region has three #4 seeds. It's just that only one of them got an actual #4 (Wisconsin), one got seeded an acceptable shade low (#5 Temple) and the other is #8 seed Texas. I'm not sure if the Committee saw their nine late season losses (7 of 9 which BTW came to top 25 caliber teams) and, forgetting that Texas plays in a tough Big 12 Conference, figured that the Longhorns were stumbling. Texas could easily go Harrison Bergeron with a higher seed and make it to the second weekend. But as it stands, they get a surprisingly beatable Wake team and then are slated to get fed to a seemingly unfair 2nd round matchup with Kentucky that's going to be a lot more competitive than people may think, and certainly moreso than the Wildcats would like.
Missouri: One of the nation's best defenses took the pipe in the Big 12 Tourney against Nebraska and despite Dan Guerrero's assurances that the Committee downplays or even ignores the last 12 games of the season, the Tigers were given a #10 seed on the strength of a couple of embarrassing mid-season slip ups (Oral Roberts and a poor Oklahoma team), that Nebraska loss and three losses to top Big 12 teams (Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas). Boy, is #7 Clemson going to be upset when they realize their #10 seed opponent is in fact a tough underseeded equal, and if I'm #2 West Virginia, I don't get too cocky about easily making the 2nd weekend.
Contrary to popular belief:
Cornell did not get overseeded. Sagarin has the deliberately paced but offensively talented Big Red around 50, which is right below the at-large cutoff point. This is a legitimately good team hidden in a mostly weak Ivy League (though Harvard had a good season and Princeton came on late in the year), and while their chances of beating top 20 Temple are dim, they certainly deserve to get seeded as high as 12.
Not a prayer:
East Tennessee State is the strongest #16 in the field but has a 7.3% chance of beating Kentucky. #15 Morgan State isn't much better, with only a 7.4% chance of ousting #2 West Virginia. ETSU has less than a 9600 to 1 chance of reaching Indianapolis, but Morgan State is the longer shot at 10700+ to 1.
You have a better chance of... dying of a drug overdose between the ages of 35 and 44. The odds of that are 7877 to 1.
Watch out for:
Wisconsin. Ken Pomeroy actually has the Badgers rated 3rd in the nation, while Sagarin has them at a more reasonable 14. The defense-minded Badgers have one of their best offensive squads in years, great at controlling the ball (their 15.1% turnover rate is 3rd best in the country) while their defense allows the fewest offensive rebounds per possession in the country at 25.8%. The Badgers are going to be a tough out for everybody, and has a very real chance of ousting Kentucky should they meet in the Sweet 16. A berth in the Final Four is not an unrealistic possibility.
Odds:
1. Kentucky. Sweet 16: 55.7%. Final Four: 4.2 to 1
2. West Virginia. Sweet 16: 53.8%. Final Four: 4.3 to 1
3. New Mexico. Sweet 16: 31.7%. Final Four: 28.3 to 1
4. Wisconsin. Sweet 16: 61.9%. Final Four: 4.1 to 1
5. Temple. Sweet 16: 26.9%. Final Four: 22.2 to 1
6. Marquette. Sweet 16: 32.7%. Final Four: 17.7 to 1
7. Clemson. Sweet 16: 22.4%. Final Four: 15.9 to 1
8. Texas. Sweet 16: 34.3%. Final Four: 8.7 to 1
9. Wake Forest. Sweet 16: 9.2%. Final Four: 87.9 to 1
10. Missouri. Sweet 16: 23.1%. Final Four: 15.1 to 1
11. Washington. Sweet 16: 30.7%. Final Four: 20.0 to 1
12. Cornell. Sweet 16: 12 to 1. Final Four: 236.3 to 1
13. Wofford. Sweet 16: 27 to 1. Final Four: 945.6 to 1
14. Montana. Sweet 16: 20 to 1. Final Four: 1014.1 to 1
15. Morgan State. Sweet 16: 143 to 1. Final Four: 10732.5 to 1
16. East Tennessee State: Sweet 16: 125 to 1. Final Four: 9667.1 to 1
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
Part 30 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
After 29 other tournaments and several convoluted tournament scenarios and formats... our final tournament is a straightforward eight team, three round tournament with a clear favorite, a clear dark horse and a bunch of longshots.
Utah State's move to the WAC years ago was a good idea, even as the conference was besieged with defections and the founding of the Mountain West. They are the big dogs in a conference with enough of a mid-major profile to get them on the map, and rated 38 in the Sagarin ratings, they have what it takes to get in at-large if somehow they don't win the WAC tournament, which they should as a 50.8% favorite.
The obvious dark horse to knock them off is the #2 seed and tournament host, Nevada. With the tournament in Reno and a halfway decent team that might win the CBI but nothing more, the Wolfpack have a 7 to 3 shot (30.3%) to win, and post the biggest challenge to the Aggies in the Final.
But really, it's likely Utah State rolls through their three rounds, collects their trophy and cruises on into the NCAA's as a #10 seed.
Here are the WAC odds for every team involved.
1. Utah State: Even (50.8%)
2. Nevada: 2.3 to 1 (30.3%)
3. New Mexico State: 28.1 to 1
4. Louisiana Tech: 11.8 to 1
5. Fresno State: 57.4 to 1
6. San Jose State: 54.3 to 1
7. Idaho: 37.9 to 1
8. Boise State: 62.5 to 1
And with that, this 30 part series of conference projections is complete! I hope you enjoyed a look at everyone's odds, and perhaps gotten a better idea of what odds teams face of winning a conference tournament. I look forward to projecting the forthcoming NCAA Tournament, NIT, CBI and Collegeinsider.com Tournament.
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Southeast Conference (SEC)
Part 29 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
Kentucky's definitely the best team in the SEC and, as things stand, a likely #1 NCAA Tournament seed coming into the SEC tournament. But believe it or not, they're not the favorite.
Kentucky, at 11 to 5 (31.0%) to win as the #1 East seed, isn't as good a shot to win as tournament host Vanderbilt at 9 to 5 (36.2%). This would be a 50-50 matchup if these two teams were to meet in the tournament final, but Vandy, as the #2 East seed has a slightly easier road to the Final than Kentucky. Vanderbilt is no less than a 71.4% favorite in any possible game up to the finals, but Kentucky will likely face a dangerous foe in the semis in #2W Ole Miss (29.7% chance of beating UK) or #3E Tennessee (39.4%).
After that, only 7 to 1 Tennessee is a dark horse. The next closest shot to win is #1 West seed Mississippi State at 13 to 1. And despite their high seed, Mississippi State is rated 56 in the Sagarin ratings, indicating they're probably NIT bound if they don't win out.
The SEC has an unusually perilous at-large perch. Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt are definitely in, but Florida and Ole Miss are on the bubble.
Florida, rated 43, absolutely has to beat Auburn in the opening round, then it's a toss up as to whether a 50-50 matchup with Mississippi State in the quarters requires that they win or if they can afford a loss and still get into the NCAA's. For their sake, the Gators may as well assume they need to win that game to get in. Anything beyond that is gravy.
Ole Miss, rated 45, would be an underdog to likely opponent Tennessee (LSU's a 10 to 1 underdog to beat the Vols) and jury's out if a close loss would be enough to bump them in. With few upsets rattling the at-large picture, ranking in the low 40's might be enough, but that's danger territory no matter what.
As for the definite ins, Vanderbilt has a funny tendency of getting higher than deserved seeds from the Selection Committee, so far be it from me to say their projected #7 is absolute. But it's highly recommended they reach the final if they want to take advantage of that favoritism. The committee may be willing to humor that #7-ish placement otherwise.
Tennessee is about a #5 right now, and as an opening round seed, they could boost that profile with a run to the semis. They have a chance against Kentucky (39.3%) but are definitely an underdog in a potential semis matchup. They could play their way up from #5 if they pull that upset.
Kentucky is one of my picks for a #1 seed, and they've got to win out to keep that rep, even though I find it hard to believe West Virginia or Villanova in the Big East could play their way into giving the Big East a 2nd #1 (Syracuse is a lock for a #1 seed) unless they win out. Kentucky can end that conversation, however, by winning out.
Here are the SEC odds for every team involved:
SEC East Seeds:
1. Kentucky: 11 to 5 (31.0%)
2. Vanderbilt: 9 to 5 (36.2%)
3. Tennessee: 7 to 1
4. Florida: 22.2 to 1
5. South Carolina: 173.8 to 1
6. Georgia: 174 to 1
SEC West seeds:
1. Mississippi State: 13.1 to 1
2. Mississippi: 15.1 to 1
3. Arkansas: 388.3 to 1
4. Alabama: 84.5 to 1
5. Auburn: 411.2 to 1
6. LSU: 9628.8 to 1
Next: Our final conference tournament... the WAC
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big Ten
Part 28 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
Don't believe the hype behind Robbie Hummel's injury sinking Purdue. Aside from a home loss to surging Michigan State, Purdue hasn't lost since their star forward's season ending injury and is part of a three team horse race in the lead to win the Big Ten Tournament. Purdue, the #2 seed, is 3 to 1 (25.8%), while #4 seed Wisconsin is 5 to 2 (27.8%) and everyone's pick, Ohio State, is a bit behind them both at 3 to 1 (24.3%).
#3 Michigan State is the dark horse at 15 to 2, with no one else closer than 16 to 1 (#6 Minnesota, who by the way blew their chance at an at-large bid down the stretch).
The Big Ten has four tournament-worthy teams. Seeds are estimated according to Sagarin rating.
- Purdue's loss of Hammel may bump them from a deserved #2 seed unless they make a do-able run to the title.
- Ohio State may take that #2 seed if they indeed win out, but Wisconsin is a threat (54.4%) to take them down in the semis, while either Purdue (49.3%) or Michigan State (41.0%) could give them a serious fight in the final. Ohio State is in #4 seed territory right now and definitely needs to make the final to improve that.
- Wisconsin should be a #3 seed but loses points for being #4 in the Big Ten. They are favored in every possible matchup and could get that #3 by winning out... maybe more if the Selection Committee's impressed with the run.
- Michigan State slots as a tenuous #6 seed right now, and getting as far as the semis will solidify that, but short of winning the tournament there's not much they can do to go higher than that. A loss to Minnesota in the quarters could drop them to #7.
Speaking of Minnesota, they're definitely an NIT team, as is Illinois. Northwestern might be. An upset would turn 'might' into 'definitely will'.
Here are the Big Ten odds for every team involved:
1. Ohio State: 3.1 to 1 (24.3%)
2. Purdue: 2.9 to 1 (25.8%)
3. Michigan State: 7.4 to 1
4. Wisconsin: 2.6 to 1 (27.8%)
5. Illinois: 41.2 to 1
6. Minnesota: 15.8 to 1
7. Northwestern: 138.2 to 1
8. Michigan: 102.2 to 1
9. Iowa: 6810.3 to 1
10. Indiana: 5558.3 to 1
11. Penn State: 579.6 to 1
Next: The SEC
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Part 27 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
We are now down to the last of the major conferences. This series will be done after tonight and all that's left is to watch the tourneys and see how they play out.
The ACC is one of college basketball's strongest conferences in a down year, with 6-7 likely tournament teams among the field. But like the Big 12 the field will be at the mercy of one big dog: The Duke Blue Devils. Duke is a 63.8% odds on favorite to win, with no one all that close to catching them. #2 Maryland, at 13 to 2, is the 2nd most likely team to win the ACC and the only team at under 14 to 1 to win.
With North Carolina down this year and such a muddled ACC field that Florida State and Virginia Tech have first round byes, Coach K's kids have no excuses. The only reasonable outcome for them is to win out and clinch a #1 seed in the NCAAs.
All that said, let's see where the potential tourney teams stand and what they need to do in the ACC tourney to improve their position.
#2 Maryland: Pretty much a #4 seed in the NCAAs barring an amazing development. Amazing developments include laying a quarterfinal egg against Georgia Tech or North Carolina, getting chop blocked in the semis or finals by some freak ACC Cinderella run, and beating Duke in the final to win the ACC Tournament outright. Anything inbetween is reasonable and shouldn't adversely affect their possible seeding. A run to the finals could get them a #3. Anything higher and the committee's in the bag.
#3 Florida State: Rare is the year FSU is a serious contender, but they're probably a #7 even if they fall in the quarters after their bye (Clemson would be favored if the Tigers won their opening round game to meet FSU). They could sneak a #6 seed if they face and knock off Clemson, then give at least an admirable effort in defeat in the semis. If Duke falls, there is a reasonable chance they could win the whole thing, and that of course would boost them farther.
#4 Virginia Tech: Repeat what I said about FSU contending for VT. Tech basketball just isn't supposed to do well, let alone get 1st round byes in the ACC tourney. VT is in the driver's seta for an #8 seed provided they at least play a close game with the winner of Wake Forest and Miami. A win will at least seal that, and they're probably facing Duke in the semis so not much to prognosticate beyond that.
#5 Wake Forest: Amidst a down year like many other big time programs, Wake is probably a #9 or #10 this year, but should be in unless they get somehow humilated. They're a favorite to beat Miami in the opening round, and getting a win before bowing to Virginia Tech isn't too bad or unreasonable an outcome.
#6 Clemson: Always a scrappy contender, Clemson's on the bcak end of a #6 seed right now and looking at a #7 unless they give a strong showing, which means beating NC State in the opening round and at the least taking Florida State to the wire in the quarters if they're going to lose. Winning that game would be nice. As with the others, Duke taking an early upset loss would upgrade their ACC title chances to 'fairly possible' and that could probably get them a #4 or #5.
#7 Georgia Tech: The one ACC team on the bubble, the Yellow Jackets have a difficult first round matchup vs a North Carolina team with their backs to the wall. GT has to win this game to stay out of bubble trouble. A win after the first round is unlikely, but unnecessary. They are probably a #10 or #11 provided they get in.
Anyone not mentioned is on the outside looking in, and nowhere close to qualifying at-large. Anyone not named Virginia is an NIT candidate (Virginia's only chance at the CBI-level tourneys is to reach the semis, and given they're a 30 to 1 shot to reach the semis, good luck to that). If Boston College loses in the first round, though, no NIT for them: They'd be 15-16 in D-I play and losing records are dealbreakers.
NC State is 17-14 but being 71 in the Sagarin ratings indicates they may be on the NIT bubble. UNC and Miami, however, are definitely in the NIT if they choose to play.
Chance of upsetting Duke in a head-to-head matchup:
Maryland: 24.1%
Florida State: 18.2%
Virginia Tech: 13.4%
Wake Forest: 14.9%
Clemson: 20.5%
Georgia Tech: 15.2%
Boston College: 8.4%
Virginia: 7.1%
North Carolina: 11.3%
NC State: 8.9%
Miami-Fla: 9.7%
Here are the ACC odds for every team involved:
1. Duke: 63.8%
2. Maryland: 6.7 to 1
3. Florida State: 14.2 to 1
4. Virginia Tech: 28 to 1
5. Wake Forest: 37.2 to 1
6. Clemson: 16.3 to 1
7. Georgia Tech: 44.5 to 1
8. Boston College: 210.5 to 1
9. Virginia: 385.4 to 1
10. North Carolina: 123.2 to 1
11. NC State: 269.3 to 1
12. Miami-Fla: 157.1 to 1
Next: The Big Ten
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)
Part 26 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
Arkansas Pine Bluff started the season with an absolutely brutal non-conference schedule that included force fed beatings on the road from UTEP, Arizona State, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Missouri, Kansas State and Oregon, all in succession before they began SWAC conference play... with an overtime win against Mississippi Valley State.
One 14-4 conference season later, the only thing ugly about Pine Bluff's outlook is their overall record. The impossible non-conference stretch managed to battle-harden them for their SWAC conference schedule, and once that began they were clearly head and shoulders above most of the lowly conference, typically a farm for 16 seeds, en route to finishing 2nd in conference play.
And none of this is to say Pine Bluff isn't a 16 seed if they win out: Their record alone would probably land them in the Play-In Game (they'd be 17-15 should they win out), but Sagarin has them rated 247 out of 347 teams, best in the SWAC, and Pomeroy has them rated 242. They are definitely a 16 seed if they take the SWAC.
And the reason I dwell on them is because they are the 3 to 2 favorite (40.5%) to win the SWAC. Credit the schedule. Credit their resolve. Or credit the crappiness of a conference whose bottom five teams are among the 15 worst teams in all of Division I according to Sagarin: Last place Alcorn State, left out of the tournament, is in fact 347th out of 347 D-I teams. Southern University, also left out, is 345th, while 8th seed Grambling is 344th.
Dark horses to knock off the comeback kids are top seeded Jackson State (9 to 2) and #5 Texas Southern (4 to 1), with #3 Alabama State (17 to 2) in the distance.
Here are the SWAC odds for every team involved:
1. Jackson State: 4.7 to 1
2. Ark Pine Bluff: 3 to 2 (40.5%)
3. Alabama State: 8.4 to 1
4. Prairie View: 13.3 to 1
5. Texas Southern: 3.9 to 1
6. Alabama A&M: 55.5 to 1
7. Mississippi Valley State: 55.9 to 1
8. Grambling: 201.5 to 1
Next: The ACC, where certainly Duke is Duke. They're on TV more than Leave it To Beaver... reruns
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Southland
Part 25 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
Usually offering a designated whipping boy slash 16-seed of the tournament, the Southland conference could send an honest to goodness underdog competitor to the NCAA's, if regular season champ and top seed Sam Houston State runs the table as expected in the 8 team, three round tourney in suburban Katy, TX to claim the conference's NCAA bid. Sam Houston State (18-7) is rated 105 by the Sagarin ratings, indicating that they could get an honest to goodness seed of substance, something like a 13 or 14 instead of a 16 and the need to pray that they don't have to play-in at Dayton for the right to get owned by Kansas.
SHS is a 6 to 5 favorite (48.5%) to win the tourney, and isn't facing significant resistance from any one foe. Top dark horses to knock them off include #2 Stephen F Austin (13 to 2), the over-named #3 Texas A&M Corpus Christi (7 to 1) and #6 Texas San Antonio (19 to 2). There is a significant chance they get knocked off, but it's more of a general shot. No one team poses a grave threat to their season.
And none of those teams would provide more than the same old same old in the NCAAs, another piece of cannon fodder for the Kansas and Dukes of the world to run over en route to the 2nd round. Sam Houston State is not just the favorite to advance, but the fledgling Southland Conference's best chance to make a good impression in the NCAA's with a respectable showing or, better yet, a Cinderella upset... easily one of the conference's better impressions in the past few years.
Here are the Southland Conference odds for every team involved.
1. Sam Houston State: 6 to 5 (48.5%)
2. Stephen F Austin: 6.4 to 1
3. Texas A&M Corpus Christi: 6.9 to 1
4. SE Louisiana: 10 to 1
5. Texas State: 30.9 to 1
6. Texas San Antonio: 9.4 to 1
7. Texas Arlington: 34.9 to 1
8. Nicholls State: 120 to 1
Next: The SWAC, aka Southwestern Athletic Conference, aka the official conference of one half of the Play-In Game
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Pacific 10 (Pac 10)
Part 24 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
Is there a team outside of #Washington, #California and #ArizonaSt that could win the #PAC-10 tournament?
Sure, Jay. But it's a dim 7 to 1 shot that someone else will.
The three teams Jay Williams mention are the clear favorites, led by the only legit at-large team in a down Pac 10 in Cal at 3 to 2 (41.3%). UW (3 to 1) and ASU (4 to 1) have decent shots, but are the only non-longshots behind Cal in the field.
And both dark horses carry the sense of urgency that comes with being on the bad end of the bubble, though to their credit they were definitely on the outside looking in a few weeks before thanks to midseason struggles. Washington is 46th in the Sagarin ratings and Arizona State 47th. Both are slated for a semifinal clash, and both absolutely need to reach the final at the absolute least to have a real shot at an at-large bid. And even then, they can only afford to lose to Cal. In the unlikely event the Golden Bears are beaten beforehand, the Huskies or Sun Devils would do themselves good to just win the tourney outright, because at that point there is no scenario where they can lose and have a case for anything other than a #1 NIT seed. Cal was in perilous danger of leaving the Pac 10 with no at-large worthy teams, but a strong finish has them in line for an 8-9 seed provided they at least reach the final. They're definitely in no matter what.
Special note must be given to #5 UCLA on account of holy hell Ben Howland what the hell happened to the 2009-2010 Bruins this year? What was one of the Pac 10's stronger programs faceplanted to a 3-7 start that include losses to lofty opponents like Cal State Fullerton, Portland and Long Beach State. The Bruins might have recovered despite that if not for a 3-4 midseason stretch that included losses to fellow Pac 10 failboats Stanford and Oregon... as well as a disastrous 2-6 finish to the regular season that included another loss to Oregon. Save for the unlikely event that they win the Pac 10 Tournament (21 to 1), the Bruins are doing absolutely nothing come tournament time, not even the CBI Tournament. They would be underdogs to even make it out of the first round if not for the tourney being in their backyard in Los Angeles.
Here are the Pac 10 odds for every team involved.
1. California: 3 to 2 (41.3%)
2. Arizona State: 3.8 to 1 (20.7%)
3. Washington: 2.9 to 1 (25.9%)
4. Arizona: 23.8 to 1
5. UCLA: 20.6 to 1
6. Oregon State: 134.4 to 1
7. Stanford: 71.5 to 1
8. Oregon: 188.5 to 1
9. Washington State: 136.3 to 1
Next: The Southland Conference
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Mountain West
Part 23 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
UNLV gets to host the Mountain West Tournament a little too often, having hosted eight of the last eleven Mountain West tourneys. Notice how UNLV frequently tends to win the Mountain West Tournament when they're hosting: All three of their Mountain West titles in the last 10 years (2000, 2007, 2008) came at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas, and two other times (2002, 2003) they reached the final only to lose the Championship and automatic NCAA Tournament bid in a tight game. UNLV did not win the Mountain West during the three non-Vegas tournaments in Denver, and only reached the final in 2004.
So the Runnin' Rebels have to be happy while the rest of the Mountain West has to be grating their teeth at yet another installment of the Mountain West Tournament at the Thomas and Mack. #3 UNLV is among the favorites to win it all at 3 to 1 (25.9%), but they're not the favorite.
That favorite, however, is not media darling New Mexico, the regular season Mountain West champ who has gotten a series of mainstream media mouthjobs from their 28-3 regular season, with talk that the Lobos might deserve a three seed. The Sagarin ratings disagree, rating them 22nd, which is around 5 seed territory. They can inch their way to a 4 seed with a run to the finals, but they are in fact a big underdog to two potential Final opponents.
One is UNLV, and the other is a familiar face among mid-major powers and the favorite to win: #2 BYU. Yes, they took a late season loss to the Lobos, but Sagarin still rates them 9th overall in the nation despite it, and the Mormon Cougars are a 3 to 2 favorite to win the Mountain West (42.3%). If BYU and the Lobos played ten more times on a neutral floor, BYU would probably win seven of those matchups.
The only other legitimate shot to win is Steve Fisher's #4 San Diego State Aztecs at 7 to 1. Don't consider that a ringing endorsement: They probably win their opening game against #5 Colorado State and then face the underdog life against #1 New Mexico (45.7%), let alone underdog odds against likely Final opponents BYU (26.5%) and UNLV (32.8%). If the Lobos send the Aztecs home, SDSU needs to cross their fingers that they looked good enough (and other teams looked bad enough) to sneak into the NCAA Tournament. Right now the 20-8 Aztecs are on the wrong end of the bubble and could really use a big (and do-able) upset against the Lobos.
But then again, SDSU made the final of last year's tournament and missed the dance despite a stronger rating than they have this year (though they parlayed that denial into a trip to the NIT Final Four at MSG). However, upsets in othe conference tourneys and a decent at-large field sunk the Aztecs' at-large hopes in 2009, while a consensus weak field of at-large teams overall and a relative lack of upsets by outsiders could play to their benefit in 2010... if SDSU can repeat last year's run and pull a big upset. Of course, the Aztecs could also just win the tournament, but that's a hardway bet at best.
Here are the Mountain West odds for every team involved:
1. New Mexico: 4.3 to 1 (18.8%)
2. BYU: 3 to 2 (42.3%)
3. UNLV: 2.9 to 1 (25.9%)
4. San Diego State: 7.3 to 1
5. Colorado State: 314.7 to 1
6. Utah: 232.2 to 1
7. TCU: 1118 to 1
8. Wyoming: 3570.5 to 1
9. Air Force: 16753.8 to 1
Next: The Pac-10
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Conference USA
Part 22 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
UTEP has completed one of their best regular seasons in years with a 24-5 record that has them ranked 34th in the Sagarin ratings, planted on the front end of the NCAA Tournament bubble. That's the good news.
The bad news is that it's not only going to be hard for UTEP to win the Conference USA tournament even though they're a 5 to 2 favorite (27.3%), but there's no way they can take a loss without doing damage to their ratings, as they are technically favored in every single possible matchup the tournament could give them. However, several of those matchups are in doubt: #2 seed Memphis (3 to 1), on the decline following coach John Calipari's departure, has a 48.6% chance to beat the Miners if they meet in the final. #3 UAB (11 to 2), reborn under reborn head coach Mike Davis (he who crashed and burned under pressure with Indiana a few years ago), would have a 40.4% chance vs UTEP in the final.
UTEP could run into trouble before the final. #5 Tulsa (9 to 2) is hosting the tournament and could meet UTEP in the semis with a 49% chance to win. Even if #4 Marshall holds serve, the Thundering Herd are a 37.8% shot to knock off UTEP.
The Miners are (appropriately?) facing a minefield after the quarters, and a loss to any of the possible danger teams could jeopardize their at-large tournament hopes. There isn't a scenario where UTEP can get knocked off and safely get in at-large that doesn't involve several bubble teams in other conferences falling apart while top seeds all hold serve to win their respective conference tournaments.
And of course none of the aforementioned teams are seriously in the hunt for at-large bids. All are easy NIT picks, though. The closest of the bunch to the bubble, Memphis, is favored in any matchup before the final and only a slight dog versus a couple of possible Final opponents. There is not a realistic scenario where the Tigers can lose and sneak in at-large. To get in, they have to win out. But at 3 to 1, they have a good shot to do so, much better than UTEP at 5 to 2 may want to admit. With UAB and Tulsa right behind them, there are several likely suspects contending for the Conference USA title, and no one really stands out.
Here are the Conference USA odds for every team involved:
1. UTEP: 2.7 to 1 (27.3%)
2. Memphis: 3 to 1 (25.0%)
3. UAB: 5.6 to 1
4. Marshall: 10.6 to 1
5. Tulsa: 4.6 to 1
6. Southern Miss: 44.7 to 1
7. Houston: 33 to 1
8. SMU: 144.8 to 1
9. Central Florida: 647.5 to 1
10. East Carolina: 6510.4 to 1
11. Tulane: 2744.5 to 1
12. Rice: 16241.7 to 1
Next: The Mountain West
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big West
Part 21 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
The Big West, like the Big East, took a page from the West Coast Conference and gave their top seeds a double bye (no complaints from UC Santa Barbara's coach as of yet). #1 UC Santa Barbara and #2 Pacific won't have to play until the semifinals of the Big West tourney in Anaheim, while #3 Long Beach State and #4 UC Davis get a free ride into the quarters as the remaining #5 to #8 seeds get to duke it out in the opening round. As expected, the double bye makes the top two seeds an easy favorite, Pacific ahead at 6 to 5 (47.5%) with the Gauchos behind them at 14 to 5 (26.2%).
From there, only #3 Long Beach State has a decent shot at 5 to 1. Everyone else is facing longshot odds to get over, and that's fine. Pacific representing the Big West in the NCAA's yet again is good for the Big West, especially if they can spike an upset and sneak out of the dance with a win. The conference's participation in the Bracket Buster weekend was a big step forward despite a down year for most of the conference (only UCSB and Pacific had winning records overall), and sending a strong representative would be yet another step forward.
Here are the Big West odds for everyone involved.
1. UC Santa Barbara: 2.8 to 1 (26.2%)
2. Pacific: 6 to 5 (47.5%)
3. Long Beach State: 4.9 to 1
4. UC Davis: 34 to 1
5. CS Fullerton: 14.9 to 1
6. Cal Poly SLO: 157.8 to 1
7. UC Irvine: 182.3 to 1
8. CS Northridge: 119 to 1
Next: Conference USA
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big 12 Conference
Part 20 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
With six legit top 20 teams (whether they poll that way or not) and probably seven legit at-large teams, the Big 12 is one of college basketball's best power conferences this fractured season, and you'd expect their 12 team tournament to be a beat-down titanic barnburner of a dogfight once we get to the semis.
Except the Kansas Jayhawks are probably at this point the #1 team in the country (sorry, Syracuse) and are easily the best team in a loaded Big 12, which makes them an even shot (51.2%) to win the Big 12 tournament. If not for them, the above paragraph might be true, but as it stands they're probably playing for 2nd place and hopefully a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can't topple the Jayhawks. Top dark horses include #2 Kansas State (5 to 1), amidst one of their best seasons in a while, and #6 Texas (9 to 1), still one of the best teams in the country but suffered a bit of the dumps in Big 12 Conference play and landed themselves a relatively crappy 6 seed. The funny thing for the Longhorns is that if they can thread the needle through a winnable tournament stretch and make the finals, they can probably notch a 3 seed in the NCAAs... yes, despite being a 6 seed in the Big 12 Tourney.
Everyone else falls back in the pack. #4 Baylor's probably the 3rd best team in the conference but is an 11 to 1 shot to win it. A semifinal loss to superior K-State is likely, and not exactly a scarlet letter on Baylor's resume. They too could warrant a 3 seed in the NCAAs if Texas doesn't. Texas A&M has an argument for the same, but chances that they take a quarterfinal or semifinal loss is fairly likely, and probably drops them back even though the loss would likely come to a superior team (Missouri and Kansas are the suspects). It'd be hard for the committee to give A&M a 3 seed if they take a quarterfinal conference tourney loss, even to a higher seed in A&M. A 4 or 5 is more realistic unless the Aggies thread the needle and at least reach the semis. They are 19 to 1 to win it all so don't hope too hard.
#5 Missouri is a likely 5 seed in the NCAAs as well, and will be hard pressed to down a pesky #12 in Nebraska AND win a tough matchup with Baylor in the quarters. The Tigers are 12 to 1 to win the tourney so don't hold your breath there.
#7 Oklahoma State is on the good side of the bubble, and running a 21-9 record in this tough conference certainly helps. What would also help is holding serve with a 1st round win over #10 Oklahoma and then putting forth an admirable effort in quarterfinal defeat against K-State. One Big 12 Tourney win should be enough for the Cowboys, and scoring the upset to reach the semis certainly will, let alone the 64 to 1 shot that they win the thing. Take comfort, bubble mongers, that Oklahoma State probably isn't ruining anyone's season by winning the Big 12 tourney because they're probably in otherwise anyway.
Here are the Big 12 odds for every team involved:
1. Kansas: Even (51.2%)
2. Kansas State: 5.3 to 1
3. Baylor: 11.2 to 1
4. Texas A&M: 19 to 1
5. Missouri: 12.4 to 1
6. Texas: 9 to 1
7. Oklahoma State: 63.9 to 1
8. Colorado: 612.4 to 1
9. Texas Tech: 593.6 to 1
10. Oklahoma: 1289.6 to 1
11. Iowa State: 580.5 to 1
12. Nebraska: 2001.1 to 1
Next: The Big West
Monday, March 8, 2010
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big East
Part 19 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
Our first power conference tournament is the biggest we've seen yet at 16 teams, with five Top 25 ranked teams and as many as 8-9 teams with a real case for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. Not only is it the biggest and best tournament to date, but it's also arguably the most competitive, and even the favorites will be hard pressed to come out of it alive.
Instead of a conventional 16 team format, the Big East takes a page from the WCC and stepladders their tournament format, giving the top four seeds byes into the quarterfinals while making the 9-16 seeds play each other for the right to face the 5-8 seeds in another qualifying round before the quarters. This protects the top seeds and makes the lower seeds work harder to win the tournament. Take a look at the bracket format here.
Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim complains about receiving a double bye, though that double bye helps make the #1 seeded Orange the favorite at 12 to 5 (29.8%). Right on their heels is #3 West Virginia at around 5 to 2 (26.9%), and a ways back is dark horse #4 Villanova at 6 to 1. Longer shots with the best odds from there are #2 Pittsburgh (11 to 1), #8 Georgetown (14 to 1) and #5 Marquette (18 to 1).
The two teams on the bubble with a real shot of getting in are #7 Notre Dame and #10 Seton Hall. The Irish will have a challenging 2nd round game with either #15 Providence or... Seton Hall. If the Pirates get past Providence, their matchup with Notre Dame could be an elimination game in more ways than one. Obviously, if either team does not get to the quarters, it's probably game over for their at-large tournament chances.
From there, the winner of that early series is definitely an underdog to #2 Pittsburgh in the quarters and wouldn't hurt their chances with a competitive loss... but both have significant chances to win (Notre Dame at 41.1% and Seton Hall at 38.5%), and a win would boost that team's profile enough that as long as their eventual exit isn't embarrassing, said team should have enough pump to their resume to sneak in if they pull a quarterfinal upset. Without it, they could have enough but it depends on how the other bubble teams shake out.
UConn, amidst one of their worst seasons in a couple decades, is 50th in the Sagarin ratings and technically close, but at 17-14 and stumbling down the stretch it's unlikely they can coax at at-large bid from a couple of tourney wins. Rated 58, Cincinnati's been down for a while, and a 16-14 record's probably keeping them out.
The long shots are, as you'd expect, the longest shots we've seen to date, having to pull five upsets against some of the best teams in the country to get a tournament bid. #14 Rutgers faces the impossible at 53922 to 1, but they're not even the longest shot in the tournament. #16 DePaul is 86934 to 1 to win the tournament. To illustrate, let's enlist Funny2.com's help:
Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065
Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524
Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1
Odds of having your identity stolen: 200 to 1
Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1
Odds of being killed sometime in the next year in any sort of transportation accident: 77 to 1
Chance that DePaul's entire roster avoids death via transport in 2010: 83.4%
Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1
Odds of bowling a 300 game: 11,500 to 1
Odds of DePaul winning the 2010 Big East Men's Basketball Tournament: 86,934 to 1
Sad that DePaul's starting point guard has a better chance of having his identity swiped, bowling a 300 game, getting possessed by Satan, dying in a terrible accident or getting burned up with a bottle rocket than he does of winning the Big East Tournament.
Here are the Big East odds for every team involved:
1. Syracuse: 2.4 to 1 (29.8%)
2. Pittsburgh: 10.9 to 1
3. West Virginia: 2.7 to 1 (26.9%)
4. Villanova: 6.1 to 1
5. Marquette: 17.7 to 1
6. Louisville: 22.5 to 1
7. Notre Dame: 48.6 to 1
8. Georgetown: 14.3 to 1
9. South Florida: 513.7 to 1
10. Seton Hall: 118.8 to 1
11. Cincinnati: 186.8 to 1
12. Connecticut: 108.9 to 1
13. St John's: 1113.6 to 1
14. Rutgers: 53921.8 to 1
15. Providence: 753.5 to 1
16. DePaul: 86394 to 1
Next: The Big 12... and a lot more, as Championship Week picks up steam.
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