Breaking Loose in Tulsa: Anatomy of a bad at-large NCAA Tournament selection, and the business of at-large bids

Every NCAA Tournament selection show ends with howling over snubs and undeserving inclusions. This year's bad-inclusion winner is a duesy: Tulsa made the field at large despite ranking 75th in Massey Ratings and a mediocre finish that included multiple losses to unheralded Memphis.

Syracuse (58th) caught similar flak, especially after losing 5 of their last 6, including a regular season closing road loss to NIT-worthy Florida State. This is especially glaring given the omissions of worthy programs like South Carolina (44th) and Georgia Tech (45th). However, Tulsa's inclusion is quite glaring given their rating even made them a marginal pick for the subordinate NIT tournament.

Someone on reddit floated an excellent theory that might not only explain these inclusions but also illustrate the sort of political factors within the NCAA that lead to certain selections and omissions:

Each conference gets a certain sum of money for every NCAA bid they get. Louisville and SMU, who would have certainly made the field, are barred from postseason play this year and could not go. The ACC (Louisville) and American Athletic Conference (SMU) lose out... unless the tournament takes one extra at-large team from those conferences in their stead.

Hence Syracuse (ACC) and Tulsa (AAC) got bids they probably didn't deserve, as a restitution payoff to the power conferences for their powerful but banned programs not getting in.

Yes, this is terribly unfair from a competitive standpoint. Yes, the committee ideally should take teams on their own merit rather than out of loyalty to a conference or program. But as long as the NCAA fills a field by hand picking teams at-large, this is always going to happen with the bubble teams. Teams are always going to get seeded higher or lower than they should, or play at an out of place region when circumstances would have allowed them to play closer to home.

Unfortunately, when you give a group of rich white men the power to hand pick competitors for a championship, political and business interests become just as important a factor in your program's fate as your strength of schedule or win loss record.

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Conference USA

Part 22 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

UTEP has completed one of their best regular seasons in years with a 24-5 record that has them ranked 34th in the Sagarin ratings, planted on the front end of the NCAA Tournament bubble. That's the good news.

The bad news is that it's not only going to be hard for UTEP to win the Conference USA tournament even though they're a 5 to 2 favorite (27.3%), but there's no way they can take a loss without doing damage to their ratings, as they are technically favored in every single possible matchup the tournament could give them. However, several of those matchups are in doubt: #2 seed Memphis (3 to 1), on the decline following coach John Calipari's departure, has a 48.6% chance to beat the Miners if they meet in the final. #3 UAB (11 to 2), reborn under reborn head coach Mike Davis (he who crashed and burned under pressure with Indiana a few years ago), would have a 40.4% chance vs UTEP in the final.

UTEP could run into trouble before the final. #5 Tulsa (9 to 2) is hosting the tournament and could meet UTEP in the semis with a 49% chance to win. Even if #4 Marshall holds serve, the Thundering Herd are a 37.8% shot to knock off UTEP.

The Miners are (appropriately?) facing a minefield after the quarters, and a loss to any of the possible danger teams could jeopardize their at-large tournament hopes. There isn't a scenario where UTEP can get knocked off and safely get in at-large that doesn't involve several bubble teams in other conferences falling apart while top seeds all hold serve to win their respective conference tournaments.

And of course none of the aforementioned teams are seriously in the hunt for at-large bids. All are easy NIT picks, though. The closest of the bunch to the bubble, Memphis, is favored in any matchup before the final and only a slight dog versus a couple of possible Final opponents. There is not a realistic scenario where the Tigers can lose and sneak in at-large. To get in, they have to win out. But at 3 to 1, they have a good shot to do so, much better than UTEP at 5 to 2 may want to admit. With UAB and Tulsa right behind them, there are several likely suspects contending for the Conference USA title, and no one really stands out.

Here are the Conference USA odds for every team involved:

1. UTEP: 2.7 to 1 (27.3%)
2. Memphis: 3 to 1 (25.0%)
3. UAB: 5.6 to 1
4. Marshall: 10.6 to 1
5. Tulsa: 4.6 to 1
6. Southern Miss: 44.7 to 1
7. Houston: 33 to 1
8. SMU: 144.8 to 1
9. Central Florida: 647.5 to 1
10. East Carolina: 6510.4 to 1
11. Tulane: 2744.5 to 1
12. Rice: 16241.7 to 1

Next: The Mountain West