Sunday, March 7, 2010

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Mid American Conference (MAC)

Part 16 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

The MAC, once a mid-major hotbed for college basketball, fell on hard times this season and their best team in 2010, Kent State, might make the low rungs of the NIT at-large. The conference as a whole is average in strength compared to all 32 conferences, and their worst teams (Northern Illinois, Toledo) could get beat by many of the weakest conferences' average teams.

That said, Kent State is a mild favorite (34.7%) in a ho-hum but somewhat competitive 12 team MAC tournament field. Central Michigan, probably the 7th best team in the conference, snuck their way to a #2 seed plus a 1st round bye and is still a 19 to 1 shot. #3 Akron (21.6%) is probably the next best shot to win this thing. Don't be terribly shocked if Kent or Akron doesn't win it, though. It's sort of a toss-up as to who would usurp them both, but in this field it's entirely possible one or both teams go down. Likely suspects include #4 Miami-Ohio, #7 Western Michigan and #9 Ohio U.

Toledo has a better chance of finding God in a strip club and convincing him to deliver world peace to mankind than they do of winning this tournament. Getting out of the opening round versus Buffalo (13.5 to 1) would require a bit of divine intervention as well.

Here are the MAC odds for every team involved.

1. Kent State: 1.9 to 1 (34.7%)
2. Central Michigan: 19.1 to 1
3. Akron: 7 to 2 (21.6%)
4. Miami-Ohio: 9 to 1
5. Buffalo: 15.6 to 1
6. Eastern Michigan: 31 to 1
7. Western Michigan: 9.1 to 1
8. Ball State: 228.2 to 1
9. Ohio University: 10.9 to 1
10. Bowling Green: 152.2 to 1
11. Northern Illinois: 440.8 to 1
12. Toledo: 23368.3 to 1

Next: The Mid Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

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