Wednesday, March 3, 2010

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Northeast Conference

Part 8 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

After a couple of different conference tournament situations, the Northeast Conference and its home-court campus format gets us back to the usual formula: A favorite (#1 seed Quinnipiac at 51.8%) lording over an eight team field that features a couple of dark horses (#2 Robert Morris and #3 Mount St Mary's, each with chances around 20-22%) and a field of longshots.

There's not much else to say here. As a small time conference, the tournament winner will likely get fed to a top 3 seed in the NCAAs. The home court format means the high seeds will get the advantage, meaning that even though #3 Mt. St. Mary's is very close in strength to top seed Quinnipiac, having to go on the road to beat the #1 or #2 puts them at a disadvantage. #8 Monmouth is stronger than the three seeds above them but it doesn't make much of a difference where they're seeded as they like the others are a huge longshot (149 to 1).

Here are the Missouri Valley Tournament Odds for every team involved:

1. Quinnipiac: Even (51.8%)
2. Robert Morris: 7 to 2 (21.7%)
3. Mt. St. Mary's: 4 to 1 (20.1%)
4. Long Island: 28.9 to 1
5. Fairleigh Dickinson: 365.2 to 1
6. St. Francis-PA: 486.5 to 1
7. Central Connecticut State: 403.7 to 1
8. Monmouth: 149.0 to 1

Next: Colonial Athletic Association

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