Wednesday, March 10, 2010
2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
Part 30 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.
After 29 other tournaments and several convoluted tournament scenarios and formats... our final tournament is a straightforward eight team, three round tournament with a clear favorite, a clear dark horse and a bunch of longshots.
Utah State's move to the WAC years ago was a good idea, even as the conference was besieged with defections and the founding of the Mountain West. They are the big dogs in a conference with enough of a mid-major profile to get them on the map, and rated 38 in the Sagarin ratings, they have what it takes to get in at-large if somehow they don't win the WAC tournament, which they should as a 50.8% favorite.
The obvious dark horse to knock them off is the #2 seed and tournament host, Nevada. With the tournament in Reno and a halfway decent team that might win the CBI but nothing more, the Wolfpack have a 7 to 3 shot (30.3%) to win, and post the biggest challenge to the Aggies in the Final.
But really, it's likely Utah State rolls through their three rounds, collects their trophy and cruises on into the NCAA's as a #10 seed.
Here are the WAC odds for every team involved.
1. Utah State: Even (50.8%)
2. Nevada: 2.3 to 1 (30.3%)
3. New Mexico State: 28.1 to 1
4. Louisiana Tech: 11.8 to 1
5. Fresno State: 57.4 to 1
6. San Jose State: 54.3 to 1
7. Idaho: 37.9 to 1
8. Boise State: 62.5 to 1
And with that, this 30 part series of conference projections is complete! I hope you enjoyed a look at everyone's odds, and perhaps gotten a better idea of what odds teams face of winning a conference tournament. I look forward to projecting the forthcoming NCAA Tournament, NIT, CBI and Collegeinsider.com Tournament.