Showing posts with label Toronto Blue Jays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Toronto Blue Jays. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Jose Bautista's Gambit: The Game Theory behind the failed takeout slide
Over two weeks after Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista became one of the first victims of MLB's new takeout slide rule, I can't get over the fact that Joey Bats actually made what was a smart decision.
The slide itself seemed borderline. This wasn't the traditional spikes-up M.Bison from Street Fighter Slide Kick Into the 2nd Baseman takeout slide that Chase Utley used to injure Ruben Tejada in the 2015 playoffs. Bautista's slide was in line with the bag. His hand made contact with Logan Forsythe's leg as Forsythe tried to turn the potential game ending double play. The booth umpire decided that Bautista had reached for Forsythe's leg on the slide, and called the batter out due to runner interference. Game over, Rays win.
Bautista's no dummy. He knows as well as anyone that interference with the middle infielder on slides into 2nd is now illegal. And I don't believe for a second that his outstretched left hand was circumstantial. Every player knows to keep his upper body compact to maximize speed when sliding into a base. The only reason Bautista happened to extend the hand on the same side as the 2nd baseman was to interfere with his throw.
While that seems rather dumb, to knowingly interfere when it's not legal... Bautista's play was a great game theory move, and the best play for his situation.
------------
See, if Bautista slides normally, Forsythe, a competent 2B, turns the easy double play to throw out the not so fleet footed Jays batter Edwin Encarnacion at 1B to end the game. Of course, if Bautista blatantly slides into Forsythe, it's not only obvious interference and the game is over... but he could also be suspended.
However, when Bautista slides normally into the bag and subtlely extends his hand, there is a chance that the umpires overlook his interference, with the more substantial chance that Forsythe doesn't complete his play (which is what happened: Forsythe in fact made a throwing error due to interference from the outstretched hand), tying the game (Josh Donaldson would score from 3B) and keeping the game alive with two outs in the top 9th. Having a runner on 1st with two outs, obviously, gives you a better chance of winning than the game being over.
Yes, Bautista is often cited for interference and the game is over anyway. But it took an astute challenge from Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash and a conclusive booth review for that ruling to occur. Bautista's interference was subtle, and there appeared such a substantial chance that he could get away with it that many argued (incorrectly) that Bautista hadn't intended to interfere at all! The umpires on the field in fact had not ruled he done so.
Of course, the opposing manager and the booth were a little sharper than that, and Bautista's gambit did not pay off. It also sent a message that this subtle hand-checking-like attempt at interference will get called, so it's unlikely players will attempt it in the future.
But before we knew all that, Bautista made the game theory optimal decision that it was worth a try. It wasn't clean, and he got caught, but it was a very smart move on his part... smarter than playing it clean and taking the certain defeat. There was greater expected value for him and the Jays in attempting to get away with interference, than there was in sliding normally... even with the high odds that his gambit would not succeed.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Net Runs Special, 5-5-2010: The game that incurred Bruce Drennan's wrath (Toronto 5, Cleveland 4)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | Brandon Morrow | -0.824 | 0.000 | -0.824 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.39 | 16 |
| TOR | Jose Molina | 0.875 | 0.875 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Lyle Overbay | -1.230 | -0.786 | 0.000 | 0.075 | -0.519 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Aaron Hill | -0.251 | -1.591 | 0.000 | 1.340 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Jose Bautista | -1.065 | -0.255 | 0.000 | -0.810 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Alex Gonzalez | -0.023 | -0.646 | 0.000 | 0.623 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Fred Lewis | 1.045 | 0.689 | 0.000 | 0.356 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Vernon Wells | 1.274 | 0.326 | 0.000 | 0.838 | 0.110 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Travis Snider | -0.469 | -0.198 | 0.000 | -0.303 | 0.032 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Adam Lind | 1.608 | 1.818 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.210 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Jason Frasor | 0.391 | 0.000 | 0.391 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.65 | 4 |
| TOR | Shawn Camp | 0.089 | 0.000 | 0.089 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.98 | 2 |
| TOR | Mike McCoy | -0.089 | -0.320 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | John Buck | -0.164 | -0.164 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Rommie Lewis | -0.627 | 0.000 | -0.627 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.24 | 5 |
| TOR | TOR Luckbox | 1.420 | 1.420 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Cito Gaston | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Fausto Carmona | -2.049 | 0.000 | -2.552 | 0.503 | 0.000 | 7.46 | 19 |
| CLE | Mike Redmond | 0.902 | 0.902 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | Russell Branyan | 0.842 | -0.007 | 0.000 | 0.849 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | Mark Grudzielanek | -1.668 | -1.710 | 0.000 | 0.516 | -0.474 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | Jhonny Peralta | -0.041 | -1.338 | 0.000 | 1.297 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | Luis Valbuena | 0.706 | 0.722 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | Matt LaPorta | 0.404 | 0.975 | 0.000 | -0.571 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | Grady Sizemore | -0.311 | -0.018 | 0.000 | -0.293 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | Travis Hafner | 1.727 | 0.733 | 0.000 | 0.994 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | Shin,Soo Choo | -0.001 | -0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | Tony Sipp | 0.977 | 0.000 | 0.977 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -4.05 | 3 |
| CLE | Chris Perez | -0.332 | 0.000 | -0.332 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.76 | 5 |
| CLE | Austin Kearns | 0.117 | 0.117 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | Lou Marson | -0.430 | -0.320 | 0.000 | -0.110 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | CLE Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| CLE | Manny Acta | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Progressive Field | 2.803 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.803 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Here is the text of Bruce Drennan's epic rant, and I'll include contextual Net Runs data in the transcript when applicable:
We stink, man. Ah... I thought Carmona... he wasn't GREAT (-2.552 NRuns)... but he certainly pitched well enough to WIN, considering (his team saved a couple runs for him and scored 4)....
Oh, Valbuena! Valbuena, Valbuena, Valbuena (-1.420 NRuns from two errors in 9th)... you know what? Give him back to the Mets, man (actually he came from the Mariners in the Franklin Gutierrez trade, though the Mets were involved in that trade). You know, somebody said he should be in Columbus tonight. I said... send him to Mahoning Valley. He can't do any harm there! They haven't even started their season!!
Oh! Ugh! Painful. Uh... Branyan (-0.007 hitting Runs). Here it is. Here's his stroke. [simulates slow, graceful left handed swing of bat] Beautfiul form [repeats]... IF IT'S A PRACTICE SWING ON THE FIRST TEE! [repeats] Let's pretend I'm a ballerina.
Unbelieveable! Oh! And Peralta... oh God (-1.338 hitting NRuns). Oh... oh... I am in such pain, PAIN I SAY. Oh, I have pain in my side on this side, I have pain in my side on this side, my knees hurt, my elbow hurts like LeBron, most of all my head hurts, my psyche's hurt, I'm hurting all over my body, head to toe. Ohhh God. WE STINK. STINK.
And I'll tell you something else... the starting pitching has been pretty good, pretty good. Just think if they go South... with this... Big Red Machine of the mid 70's lineup that we got (0.055 NRuns today). Just think if that starting rotation goes sour- which has been pretty good, including today (again, no). Just think of that. Ohh! Oh!
Peralta... OHH!! you know, I'll give him credit (1.297 fielding NRuns)... he made two... outstanding defensive plays- which I was in awe of, I mean, I couldn't... the play he made by the dugout (0.584 NRuns) there by the stands was truly a tremendous play. I... if you would have said to me, is he capable of making that play- I would have obviously said no. I'm just thinking what odds- you know All Bets Are Off here, but what odds would I give you that he would make that play, I mean, you're getting the point... I mean, give credit where it's due (Tony Sipp actually got credited for the NRuns on that play as it was a pop up). He made that play and he made that line drive, that great play on that line drive too (1.222 NRuns for that play, coming with men on the corners and one out).
But 0 or 5 for Peralta- including at the end of the game when we actually had a shot at the bottom of the 9th inning to tie it up after the disaster in the top of the 9th*!!! Unbelieveable! Peralta, a .216 after- even after he got a home run and IT'S ABOUT TIME... 212. Sizemore, 220. OH. Uh, Branyan [repeats Branyan swing]... .212.
(* - Chris Perez: -0.851 NRuns that frame, 12.08 EXERA. Valbuena: -0.570 NRuns at SS that inning. Toronto Luckbox: 1.420 NRuns. Cleveland lost a 4-2 lead in the 9th and the 5-4 deficit would eventually be the final.)
LaPorta, OH MY (-0.571 fielding NRuns)- How about the play by LaPorta in Left Field (-0.796 NRuns)? Chuck Miller... I've known Chuck- he was the official scorer today. I've known Chuck for decades... greta guy, good baseball man and a good official scorer. Uh, a writer... for many many many years, good baseball man. Ahem... I'm all choked up here... uh... he was wrong on that play. That can't be a triple THAT CAN'T BE A TRIPLE IT CAN'T BE A TRIPLE THAT'S AN ERROR ON LAPORTA I DON'T CARE WHAT ANYBODY SAYS. THAT'S AN ERROR ON LAPORTA. Turning around like this it's like in my swivel chair here!
(Net Runs, of course, credited LaPorta in full for the gaffe regardless, while Carmona got -0.040 for allowing a flyball. However, Jose Bautista got a 0.836 NRun gift for hitting what was probably a flyout)
My God, did anybody remind these players who are making millions of dollars... even the kids are making four, five, six hundred thousand dollars, you know. That's a lot of money! That's even more than (the producer) Gene makes. Did anybody remind them this is the Major Leagues? Did anybody remind them this is the Major Leagues?
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-20-2010 (Seattle 4, Toronto 3)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | Ricky Romero | -1.453 | 0.000 | -1.675 | 0.222 | 0.000 | 6.31 | 20 |
| TOR | Jose Molina | -1.218 | -1.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Lyle Overbay | -0.340 | -0.311 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Aaron Hill | -0.842 | -0.463 | 0.000 | -0.379 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Edwin Encarnacion | 0.268 | -0.135 | 0.000 | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Alex Gonzalez | 1.131 | 0.864 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.027 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Adam Lind | -0.658 | -0.826 | 0.000 | 0.385 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Fred Lewis | 1.859 | -0.297 | 0.000 | 2.156 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Jose Bautista | 1.075 | 1.497 | 0.000 | -0.529 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Vernon Wells | -0.931 | -0.931 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Jeremy Reed | 0.501 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.501 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Jason Frasor | -0.048 | 0.000 | -0.048 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.41 | 1 |
| TOR | Scott Downs | 0.435 | 0.000 | 0.435 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -1.23 | 2 |
| TOR | Shawn Camp | 0.217 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.000 | 4.21 | 1 |
| TOR | Kevin Gregg | -2.254 | 0.000 | -2.254 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 60.63 | 1 |
| TOR | TOR Luckbox | 0.578 | 0.358 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Cito Gaston | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Jason Vargas | -1.073 | 0.000 | -1.073 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.56 | 20 |
| SEA | Josh Bard | 0.815 | 0.815 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | 0.818 | 1.031 | 0.000 | -0.213 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -0.649 | -1.011 | 0.000 | 0.362 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | 0.624 | 0.402 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | -0.038 | -0.274 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | 0.626 | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.833 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 0.769 | -1.007 | 0.000 | 1.776 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | -0.047 | -0.312 | 0.000 | 0.482 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | 0.427 | 0.427 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ken Griffey Jr | 1.218 | 1.218 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Kanekoa Texeira | 0.216 | 0.000 | -0.886 | 1.102 | 0.000 | 9.76 | 4 |
| SEA | Shawn Kelley | 0.283 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.85 | 3 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | -0.578 | -0.220 | -0.358 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 1.731 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -1.731 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Fred Lewis (1.859 NRuns: -0.297 hitting, 2.156 fielding)
Goat: Kevin Gregg (-2.254 pitching NRuns)
Ken Griffey Jr's walkoff single: 1.218 NRuns
Rest of Mariners lineup: 0.081 NRuns
Mariners defense: 4.800 NRuns
******
Remember what I said about the M's needing to come up big in one of the major facets of the game (hitting, pitching, fielding) to win? Well, today the defense (the outfield in particular) had themselves a great game to bail out shoddy pitching and pedestrian offense, keeping the M's in the game enough for a Kevin Gregg implosion and a Ken Griffey Jr lined single to win it.
As for the Jays, they mostly mailed this one in, with only Fred Lewis's defense, Alex Gonzalez's effort and Jose Bautista's two run shot being the big bright spots. I'm surprised this team is so far above .500. They're like the anti-2010-Mariners.
Wak might have done his team a favor in getting ejected today: To that point he had cost his team over half a run with his managerial decisions to bunt and walk hitters.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-19-2010 (Toronto 3, Seattle 2)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | Brett Cecil | -1.696 | 0.000 | -1.603 | -0.093 | 0.000 | 6.32 | 19 |
| TOR | John Buck | 1.059 | 1.089 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Lyle Overbay | 0.690 | 0.690 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Aaron Hill | -0.591 | -0.969 | 0.000 | 0.378 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Edwin Encarnacion | -1.552 | -1.646 | 0.000 | 0.094 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Alex Gonzalez | 0.560 | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Fred Lewis | 0.692 | -1.091 | 0.000 | 1.783 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Vernon Wells | -1.058 | -0.846 | 0.000 | -0.212 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Jose Bautista | 1.995 | 0.631 | 0.000 | 1.364 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Adam Lind | 0.140 | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Shawn Camp | 0.813 | 0.000 | 0.813 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -5.96 | 2 |
| TOR | Scott Downs | -0.376 | 0.000 | -0.376 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.35 | 3 |
| TOR | Kevin Gregg | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.25 | 3 |
| TOR | TOR Luckbox | 0.208 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| TOR | Cito Gaston | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Doug Fister | 0.117 | 0.000 | 0.117 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.09 | 24 |
| SEA | Josh Bard | -0.248 | -0.248 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | 0.107 | 0.102 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | 0.694 | 0.650 | 0.000 | -0.093 | 0.137 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | 0.669 | -0.814 | 0.000 | 1.483 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 0.112 | 1.541 | 0.000 | -1.429 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | 0.357 | 0.117 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | -1.186 | -1.161 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | -0.304 | -0.590 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | -1.735 | -1.735 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Matt Tuiasosopo | -0.315 | -0.315 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ken Griffey Jr | -0.238 | -0.238 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | David Aardsma | 0.961 | 0.000 | 0.961 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -3.80 | 3 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.217 | 0.217 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | -0.208 | -0.208 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Jose Bautista (1.995 NRuns: 0.631 hitting, 1.364 fielding)
Players with more than 1.000 hitting NRuns: 2 (Josh Wilson and John Buck)
Toronto's lineup: -1.652 NRuns
Seattle's lineup: -2.691 NRuns
Toronto's defense: 3.387 NRuns
Josh Wilson's defense: -1.429 NRuns
Rest of Seattle's defense: 1.896 NRuns
Goat: Mike Sweeney (-1.735 hitting NRuns)
******
Toronto got three runs during two bad innings by Doug Fister, but to Fister's credit he had such a good game in his other six innings that he got back above average for the night (4.09 EXERA) after he finished the 8th inning. David Aardsma shook off a leadoff double and a runner on 3rd with one out to put down the Jays in the 9th.
Aside from that, Mike Sweeney killed some rallies, Franklin Gutierrez killed some rallies (in one of his worst games of the season), and their most productive hitter tonight, Josh Wilson (1.541 hitting NRuns) got lifted in the 9th for Ken Griffey Jr, who popped out. Many of the M's hits came in low-percentage situations, such as two outs and the bases empty (a single or walk here is worth 0.119 NRuns). They amount to hollow victories and baserunners left behind 9 out of 10 times.
The M's had their moments but couldn't get a real rally going more than 2-3 times. Toronto's outfield defense was great tonight, and when the other team's outfielders are making catches there's usually not much you can do, especially when your team blows.
Not that Jack Zduriencik or Don Wakamatsu deserve to lose their jobs, but I wonder how long ownership puts up with this before they put the heat on. This team is partially their fault (Griffey would have been gone weeks ago if not for Chuck Armstrong), but owners will absolve themselves and blame the GM and field manager when things go south.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Three things about misgivings with the Brandon Morrow trade
A response to USSM's misgivings on the Mariners trade of Brandon Morrow to Toronto for fireballing reliever Brandon League and minor league slugger Yohermyn Chavez (and I single them out since they tend to speak for a larger audience of analysts and readers):
Now, three points:
1. "No one knows how Brandon Morrow is going to develop." Yes, and you could say that about every other prospect in the history of MLB player development. Some players have better chances than others, and at this point, Brandon Morrow's been jerked around so much, fallen into enough negative habits (or moreso falling further into existing negative habits) etc. that his chances of success are somewhat lower than other pitchers his age with his makeup, let alone lower than other supposed top pitching prospects with a good heater. To say that the trade isn't kosher because of the non-zero chance that Brandon Morrow may succeed is to say that every trade you've ever made of a prospect for a more established player with a lower ceiling (like Brandon League) isn't kosher. Making such a deal is a neat phenomenon called "risk". You take the risk that Morrow may self actualize despite every flaw he's ever shown you and despite your flaws (and the resulting setbacks) in developing him.
Every deal is a bet that the player(s) you acquire will help you more than the player(s) you deal away will help another team. Every deal. The Mariners took the same risk with Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont and Juan Carlos Ramirez in thinking Cliff Lee and the compensation we get when he walks after next year will help us more. If you're okay with making trades, you have to accept that you don't know if the player you're dealing away is going to turn out great or not. That's part of the package.
2. Hey, wait a minute Dave, didn't you already give a few reasons why Morrow's chances at greatness were dim, expressing doubt on several occasions like this one?
By the way, for those interested, here’s the all-time list of pitchers who accumulated at least 150 innings before age 25 and had a BB/9 of 5.5 or higher at that point in their career. Morrow’s is 5.83 right now, by the way.
61 pitchers on the list. The successes – Nolan Ryan, Johnny Van Der Meer, Lefty Grove, and J.R. Richard if you ignore the fact that his career was over at age 30.
That’s it. There are a bunch of Bobby Witt/Jason Bere/Seth McClung/Daniel Cabrera types, who just never figured it out.
4 out of 60. Do you like those odds?
Why handwring at all about what history shows us is roughly a 15 to 1 longshot, especially a player that you on several occasions have shown is becoming more and more of a longshot to regularly contribute as a starting pitcher?
Is it because we burned the #5 pick in the 2006 draft on him, and there's a perceived need to maximize the return on a bad investment (and it was: Tim Lincecum, Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw and a ton of other better players were on the board)? Look, the pick is gone. We're not getting it back. Morrow's value in the present is not what it was in June 2006. You ought to evaluate him on what he is now, on the chances of the present player's success as a big league pitcher... not the chances of a top 10 draft pick at the time the player is picked.
The team blew it with Morrow's development (and to be fair Dave called that). It's not Z's fault that the current product is a 25 year old, fairly flawed 1.5 pitch pitcher with poor control that, three years later, still has a long way to go before he can be even a consistent starter, let alone a good one, let alone a great one.
3. All that said, pretty much this entire saga of angst can be pinpointed to the idea that Brandon Morrow is a valuable player that can command a Type A player's sort of return. But even Dave himself pointed out that Morrow is a lot closer to Daniel Cabrera or Seth McClung than Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum or even John Danks. He might have had that sort of potential (allegedly) in 2006, but in 2009 he's just an overthrowing fireballer with little command of any of his pitches, not much of a secondary pitch selection, diabetes, and hints of an attitude to boot.
And it's tough to fathom that any of the other 29 MLB general managers share such an inflated sentiment of Brandon Morrow's abilities, and are willing or able (I'm sure the Astros or Royals love him but what could they possibly send the Mariners of value, let alone be willing to send?) to dispense a greater return than Brandon League and Yohermyn Chavez. Maybe Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik didn't so much think lightly of Brandon Morrow (as many including Dave Cameron speculate) as he and his front office team did their research and realized that this was the balance between the value Brandon Morrow had, and the value they were able to get another team to dispense in return (because remember, not every team is willing to deal for Morrow, nor does every team have enough in their organization they're willing or able to offer in return).
There's a general trend, not necessarily in analysis circles as much as in general among informed fans, towards valuing a top domestic MLB draft pick based on where he was selected in the draft, rather than what he actually is as a player. Living in the past is what leads you to wish it was 1995 again and re-sign a broken down 39 year old DH with knee problems after an injury plagued 214/324/411 season.
Here are all the #5 overall picks in the history of the June amateur draft, dating back to 1965, 45 years of picks. 24 were pitchers. 14 made it to the Majors (though to be fair Matthew Hobgood was just drafted this year and needs time). Of those 14, only nine pitched in more than 30 games (a benchmark selected because starters make roughly 30 starts in a single season, eliminating the guys with the briefest of stays). And one of those nine, Kurt Miller, only pitched in 44 career MLB games before hanging it up.
Only two of the remaining eight pitchers won more than 100 career games: Jack McDowell and Doc Gooden. Jack was an effective veteran forgotten to the annals of time (and thanks for serving up The Double, Jack ;P ), and Doc might have been greater if he didn't love the moon powder. Of the career relievers with more than 100 appearances (Morrow, journeyman Kent Mercker, Andy Hawkins (famous for throwing a no-hitter for a crappy Yankees team and still losing that game 4-0) and failed Padres starter Bob Owchinko of the 1970's), only Mercker could say he was anything better than a fungible, mediocre reliever, and only because he pitched during the Roids Era when league ERAs spiked across the board. None of them were shutdown closers: Mercker leads them all with 25 career saves in 18 seasons. None of them were shutdown anything: Only Morrow posted a career ERA under 4.00, and aside from Mercker the others pitched during an era where the average pitcher could run an ERA in the 3's.
So we're not talking about a draft pick position that produces pitching greatness. Only two of the 24 selected in history at that spot turned out being anything resembling great over their careers. And all due respect, but I don't consider McDowell or Gooden anything close to Hall of Fame material. Maybe All Stars once or twice in their best years, but certainly not HOFers. So to think you're pissing away gold with Morrow because of the draft pick investment made in him isn't really fair. You're talking about what history's shown us to be no less than a 12 to 1 shot.
Whether or not the odds are on a #5 pick's side... where Morrow was drafted in the past is immaterial in the present. Bill Bavasi blew the money on the signing bonus and he burned the pick. That's gone. Winning is about focusing on what you have in the present and how it can help you in the future, or how acquisitions can help you in the future. It is not about focusing on the past, except to look at a player's track record to help assess said present and future.
Now back to the present. In June 2006, Brandon Morrow was one of the top 10-20 amateur players in college baseball, out of Cal (though even then he never made more than 14 starts in an NCAA season). Today, he is a back-end starter, maybe (with some work), and definitely a functional reliever with a hot fastball that can sit 93-95 when starting and can hit 101 when relieving (though granted the latter number comes from Morrow rearing back and throwing the ball as hard as he can at the plate instead of actually pitching).
As far as I'm concerned, we're sending away Matt Thornton or Daniel Cabrera, and we got back a young, halfway decent reliever with similar problems and a talented but undisciplined 20 year old hitter that might be somebody if he can learn to take a pitch.
All that said, if Brandon Morrow gives the Blue Jays a bunch of 180-200 inning seasons, cuts down on his walks, learns to command three pitches, wins 15 games a year and becomes an effective regular in that Jays rotation or any rotation over an uninterrupted 7-10 year period, without any serious or recurring health issues, I will frankly be shocked.
A bonus item: Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik may say publically this deal had nothing to do with any notion of "completing" the Halladay/Lee and you may believe him, but public figures say things to the public all the time that turns out not to be true. If you seriously trust the word of a public statement, you are either gullible or showing a patronizingly willful ignorance. To be fair, I don't think Dave really does think this but is simply saying it to maintain good graces: At this point, with the relationship he's developed with the Mariners front office (which BTW do read USSM regularly), I think Dave realizes he has to make political statements on his blog like 'I believe everything our GM says to the media' and keep his disagreements penned in to the given surface logic of the personnel decisions, in order to not piss off the front office and risk losing his connections. Among other reasons, as point #1 indicated Dave isn't a big fan of taking risks, and he has the advantage of knowing his loyal-to-a-fault readership will never call him on it.
All that said, the truth as usual is probably somewhere in the middle: Z and Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos may have contacted each other during the Halladay/Lee negotiations and agreed to shake on the Halladay/Lee deal provided this separate deal. Because otherwise, why the hell would the Jays send off their no-doubt franchise player for three good but not great prospects? I don't know much about Alex Anthopoulos but I'm pretty sure he's not that stupid. Z and Anthopoulos making this deal themselves was probably what it took to get Anthopoulos to agree to the Halladay/Lee deal that gave the M's Cliff Lee, and I'm sure Z knew this when negotiating the Morrow deal.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
An updated look at the AL East
Toronto - Like the Angels, the Blue Jays have a litany of pitcher injuries, leading to scores of replacement level innings that drag down their chances at .500 baseball, not that they had much of a chance in the loaded AL East to begin with. Backup catcher Michael Barrett is also on the DL for a couple weeks with a minor injury sustained while fielding a wild pitch. 75-80 wins in a sub-.500 campaign is more likely now.
Tampa Bay - Ben Zobrist and Gabe Kapler may see more time, but otherwise, this is the same 94-96 win squad that may just miss the wildcard by a game or two. They've stayed healthy.
NY Yankees - With Chien Ming Wang going down, the Yankees appeared in trouble until news broke that Alex Rodriguez would begin rehab assignments this week with a targeted return in early May. Having A-Rod for most of the season boost the Yanks in light of the loss of Wang and Xavier Nady. In fact, the drastic improvement of Nick Swisher defensively in RF over Nady more than offsets any recent personnel losses. The Rays gained some ground, but not enough to stop the Yankees from a 95-98 win campaign and the wildcard.
Boston - Losing Daisuke Matsuzaka for a spell is only a slip: at this stage it's expected he'll make one or two DL trips per year. Jonathan Van Every takes over as the backup outfielder, and there are a few strange faces in the bullpen. But otherwise, this team remains on track for 100 wins and the AL East title, as the big guns remain in place.
Baltimore - Lou Montanez is a solid addition to the bench in lieu of the injured Ryan Freel, and Brian Bergesen is the best of the Orioles' options for a blank rotation spot: He should do fine. Still, this is a 90-95 loss team.
Tampa Bay - Ben Zobrist and Gabe Kapler may see more time, but otherwise, this is the same 94-96 win squad that may just miss the wildcard by a game or two. They've stayed healthy.
NY Yankees - With Chien Ming Wang going down, the Yankees appeared in trouble until news broke that Alex Rodriguez would begin rehab assignments this week with a targeted return in early May. Having A-Rod for most of the season boost the Yanks in light of the loss of Wang and Xavier Nady. In fact, the drastic improvement of Nick Swisher defensively in RF over Nady more than offsets any recent personnel losses. The Rays gained some ground, but not enough to stop the Yankees from a 95-98 win campaign and the wildcard.
Boston - Losing Daisuke Matsuzaka for a spell is only a slip: at this stage it's expected he'll make one or two DL trips per year. Jonathan Van Every takes over as the backup outfielder, and there are a few strange faces in the bullpen. But otherwise, this team remains on track for 100 wins and the AL East title, as the big guns remain in place.
Baltimore - Lou Montanez is a solid addition to the bench in lieu of the injured Ryan Freel, and Brian Bergesen is the best of the Orioles' options for a blank rotation spot: He should do fine. Still, this is a 90-95 loss team.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
An educated guess about the AL East for 2009
AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox have the best lineup, one of the best defenses and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. This division is theirs for the taking unless something catastrophic happens.
The Rays just don’t have the firepower to outhit the Yankees and Red Sox, but they have the talent to outplay any other team in any other division.
What will eventually do in the Yankees’ division title hopes is their subpar defense: Jeter’s liability as a defensive SS is starting to enter public knowledge, A-Rod’s slipped at 3B himself (plus he’s going to miss about half the season, with the questionable Cody Ransom taking his place), and Xavier Nady’s injury actually led the Yankees to upgrade his subpar defense in RF by playing Nick Swisher. That said, they should still outlast the Rays for the Wildcard, as the Yankees have more offense and much better pitching, which can offset the defensive shortcomings.
Toronto’s patchwork pitching staff, led by a very strong Roy Halladay, should work well with a solid defense to get the Blue Jays around .500 despite a subpar offense, not bad for a 4th place team in MLB’s toughest division.
The Orioles have an average lineup and a decent defense, but their pitching situation is horrid, with a lack of depth leading them to run AAA-worthy arms out there. Expect 100 losses.
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox have the best lineup, one of the best defenses and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. This division is theirs for the taking unless something catastrophic happens.
The Rays just don’t have the firepower to outhit the Yankees and Red Sox, but they have the talent to outplay any other team in any other division.
What will eventually do in the Yankees’ division title hopes is their subpar defense: Jeter’s liability as a defensive SS is starting to enter public knowledge, A-Rod’s slipped at 3B himself (plus he’s going to miss about half the season, with the questionable Cody Ransom taking his place), and Xavier Nady’s injury actually led the Yankees to upgrade his subpar defense in RF by playing Nick Swisher. That said, they should still outlast the Rays for the Wildcard, as the Yankees have more offense and much better pitching, which can offset the defensive shortcomings.
Toronto’s patchwork pitching staff, led by a very strong Roy Halladay, should work well with a solid defense to get the Blue Jays around .500 despite a subpar offense, not bad for a 4th place team in MLB’s toughest division.
The Orioles have an average lineup and a decent defense, but their pitching situation is horrid, with a lack of depth leading them to run AAA-worthy arms out there. Expect 100 losses.
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