1. San Francisco Giants
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Like the Mariners in the AL West, I see the Giants winning a division title despite what I consider the weakest offense in the NL (yes, weaker than the Pirates). They don’t have any real impact bats, not even the kinda sorta impact bats I mentioned the Pirates having, and most of their lineup will struggle to consistently get on base. But they have a solid defense and one of the best rotations in MLB: Tim Lincecum is of course an ace. Many won’t think much of adding the aging Randy Johnson due to his age, but one injury plagued season doesn’t mean he can’t give the Giants 150 solid innings. Matt Cain is a strong starter, Zito is expensive but not horrible, and the emerging Jonathan Sanchez gives the Giants one of the best #5s in baseball. The bullpen’s simply okay but they have solid arms in front, an actual close for a change, and should eke out plenty of low scoring victories to the tune of 85-90 wins.
The Diamondbacks won’t be far behind and will give the Giants a serious run for their money. Their bane, however, is a poor defense and a young lineup loaded with talent but also inconsistency. Their pitching staff will also lean heavily on the ordinary Jon Garland and the inconsistent Doug Davis. Even if Brandon Webb and Dan Haren stay mostly healthy, they won’t have the defensive help the Giants will. 85 wins isn’t impossible: In fact, it’s likely. But their defense and youthful exuberance (read: impatience) at the plate will hold them back.
The Dodgers have the best lineup in the division and probably the most consistently productive pitching staff, but also have the division’s worst defense, thanks in ironically large part to one man: Manny Ramirez. His bat is the biggest and the best in the lineup, but his range and glove at LF are the slowest and the worst in the field. He doesn’t cost his team as many runs in the field as his bat brings to the lineup, but it costs the team enough to likely cost them a real shot at the division title. The Dodgers will play .500 ball, and don’t be surprised to see them finish 2009 with a losing record.
Even with the team’s humidor cancelling out much of the effect of Coors Field’s mile high altitude, the Colorado Rockies should still score plenty of runs thanks to a productive offense with reasonable power. However, they easily boast the worst pitching staff in the division, with a subpar rotation and an okay-at-best bullpen, as well as a subpar defense anchored by one of the worst RF’s in baseball: Brad Hawpe. Hawpe’s power bat boosts the lineup, but his “defense” can cost the Rockies 20-30 runs in the field alone. Garrett Atkins at 3B and a couple others have their issues as fielders, and the combination of subpar pitching and subpar fielding will sink Colorado. 90 losses sounds like a reasonable expectation.
The Padres lost Khalil Greene and didn’t really replace him. They’re expecting serious innings from Kevin Correia, Shawn Hill, the career Mexican Leaguer Walter Silva and maybe Cha Seung Baek. Heath Bell makes a solid replacement for Trevor Hoffman at closer, and Cla Meredith is a solid workhorse, but the rest of the pen is a shoddy contrast to the once-solid Padres pens of yesteryear. The defense is also, shall we say, a little weak. Still, cavernous PETCO Park should help the Padres prevent some runs, but the offense packs too little of a punch to expect anything other than 90-95 losses.
Showing posts with label educated guesses. Show all posts
Showing posts with label educated guesses. Show all posts
Friday, April 24, 2009
An educated guess about the NL Central for 2009
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. St Louis Cardinals
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cubs will have the easiest road to a division title of any division winner. No one in the Central has enough to play better than .500 ball, let alone challenge the Cubs. The Cubs have one of the NL’s best defenses, a solid pitching staff with upside (if Rich Harden stays healthy, he’s the best pitcher in baseball) and a top productive lineup. Everyone else in the Central has their liabilities, but the Cubs don’t have any.
Milwaukee had managed a slow climb to competitive respectability the last few years, but they will take a step backward this season. They should still finish at or above .500, but they cannot hang with the Cubs. The defense has talent (like JJ Hardy at SS) but also liabilities (like Ryan Braun in LF and Prince Fielder at 1B) and comes out about average overall. The pitching staff took a huge drop with the departure of CC Sabathia, and the developing Yovani Gallardo fronts a ho-hum group. The offense can definitely score runs with power bats Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun leading a loaded, powerful lineup, but they don’t pack enough of a punch in run prevention to do anything other than run in place.
They will be fortunate to post a winning record, but the Cincinnati Reds should take a big step forward this year: 75-80 wins is a likely possibility. Gone are defensive liabilities Ken Griffey Jr and Adam Dunn, and their replacements, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, give the Reds at least as much production while playing better defense. The Reds should now have a decent defense in front of an average, consistent pitching staff. The young hitters should continue their progress, though they’ll continue to struggle with consistency.
The Cards see their undoing in a mediocre defense, thanks to weird position shifts to try and get the bats of Skip Schumacher and Rick Ankiel in the lineup, which leads to holes in the defense. Even then, the lineup isn’t much to crow about outside of superstar Albert Pujols and powerful Ryan Ludwick. This lineup is average overall. Dave Duncan’s patchwork pitching staff will do a decent job but there’s only so much they can do to prevent runs with a so-so defense. Below average run prevention with an average offense indicates 75 wins are on the horizon.
The Astros still don’t have much of an offense, as they’re playing speedy but punchless KazMatsui and Michael Bourn everyday. Hunter Pence has emerged as a leader but only brings so much to the table alongside Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. Miguel Tejada is fading and the arrival of Pudge Rodriguez immediately makes him one of their better power bats. That’s not good. The defense is solid, but the pitching is a mess. The reconstructed Mike Hampton, who has pitched a handful of innings over the last few years, immediately became their #3 starter. That’s all you need to know about the rotation: the bullpen has some solid front men but they can only undo so much damage. Still, they can do an okay job at preventing runs and can win 70-75 games, but that’s about it.
The Pirates have probably the worst offense in MLB, with no serious impact bat to speak of in the lineup (Adam LaRoche and Nate McLouth is as close as they get). Their pitching staff continues to develop in the rotation (watch Russ Ohlendorf) though they’re still some ways away, and the bullpen has glaring holes towards the back end. The Pirates will probably lose 100+ and have the top pick in the 2010 draft.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. St Louis Cardinals
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cubs will have the easiest road to a division title of any division winner. No one in the Central has enough to play better than .500 ball, let alone challenge the Cubs. The Cubs have one of the NL’s best defenses, a solid pitching staff with upside (if Rich Harden stays healthy, he’s the best pitcher in baseball) and a top productive lineup. Everyone else in the Central has their liabilities, but the Cubs don’t have any.
Milwaukee had managed a slow climb to competitive respectability the last few years, but they will take a step backward this season. They should still finish at or above .500, but they cannot hang with the Cubs. The defense has talent (like JJ Hardy at SS) but also liabilities (like Ryan Braun in LF and Prince Fielder at 1B) and comes out about average overall. The pitching staff took a huge drop with the departure of CC Sabathia, and the developing Yovani Gallardo fronts a ho-hum group. The offense can definitely score runs with power bats Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun leading a loaded, powerful lineup, but they don’t pack enough of a punch in run prevention to do anything other than run in place.
They will be fortunate to post a winning record, but the Cincinnati Reds should take a big step forward this year: 75-80 wins is a likely possibility. Gone are defensive liabilities Ken Griffey Jr and Adam Dunn, and their replacements, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, give the Reds at least as much production while playing better defense. The Reds should now have a decent defense in front of an average, consistent pitching staff. The young hitters should continue their progress, though they’ll continue to struggle with consistency.
The Cards see their undoing in a mediocre defense, thanks to weird position shifts to try and get the bats of Skip Schumacher and Rick Ankiel in the lineup, which leads to holes in the defense. Even then, the lineup isn’t much to crow about outside of superstar Albert Pujols and powerful Ryan Ludwick. This lineup is average overall. Dave Duncan’s patchwork pitching staff will do a decent job but there’s only so much they can do to prevent runs with a so-so defense. Below average run prevention with an average offense indicates 75 wins are on the horizon.
The Astros still don’t have much of an offense, as they’re playing speedy but punchless KazMatsui and Michael Bourn everyday. Hunter Pence has emerged as a leader but only brings so much to the table alongside Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. Miguel Tejada is fading and the arrival of Pudge Rodriguez immediately makes him one of their better power bats. That’s not good. The defense is solid, but the pitching is a mess. The reconstructed Mike Hampton, who has pitched a handful of innings over the last few years, immediately became their #3 starter. That’s all you need to know about the rotation: the bullpen has some solid front men but they can only undo so much damage. Still, they can do an okay job at preventing runs and can win 70-75 games, but that’s about it.
The Pirates have probably the worst offense in MLB, with no serious impact bat to speak of in the lineup (Adam LaRoche and Nate McLouth is as close as they get). Their pitching staff continues to develop in the rotation (watch Russ Ohlendorf) though they’re still some ways away, and the bullpen has glaring holes towards the back end. The Pirates will probably lose 100+ and have the top pick in the 2010 draft.
An educated guess about the NL East for 2009
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
The NL East is easily the best NL division, with three playoff contenders ahead of two also-rans.
The Phillies are well on their way to repeating. Despite his subpar defense in LF, Raul Ibañez adds an impact bat to the lineup that improves even on the departed Pat Burrell’s. This is the best lineup in the NL, with Ibañez, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shave Victorino, and plenty of productive help around them. The pitching staff has an okay rotation and a solid bullpen, but the real strength is the defense, easily the best in the majors in terms of run prevention. Jayson Werth by himself is one of the best outfielders in baseball. Utley and Rollins are one of baseball’s best double play tandems, Pedro Feliz is an excellent defensive 3B and Raul is the only real weak spot. The Phillies are what the Red Sox are in the AL: a seemingly unbeatable force that’s arguably the best at scoring and preventing runs.
No team should match the Rays’ surprise run (whether or not the saberheads were really surprised), but one team that should rebound strong from a down year is the Atlanta Braves. Picking up Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez quickly makes the Braves rotation the best in the NL, placing them ahead of the emerging Jair Jurjjens, strike throwing Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami and whichever MLB-ready rookie they elect to throw in the #5 spot. Their offense should also score a lot of runs, as the Braves have quietly assembled a consistently productive lineup built around veteran Chipper Jones and top-shelf catcher Brian McCann. Nearly all of these hitters can hit for some power, and much of the lineup consistently gets on base. The defense is merely average, but the Braves should quietly take the Wildcard in a 90-95 win season the old fashioned way: With solid pitching and solid hitting.
Sadly, the big money NY Mets just don’t have what it takes to crack the playoffs this year. Save for the huge JJ Putz trade and signing K-Rod this offseason, they didn’t really add any talent. The lineup, while one of the league’s better lineups, is essentially the same lineup they had last season. K-Rod and JJ vastly upgrade an okay bullpen to an okay bullpen fronted by two great relievers. The next best arm is one of those other players acquired in the JJ trade, Sean Green. Overall, the pitching is among the best in the NL thanks to the bullpen pickups, but the defense is simply decent, the bottom of the lineup gets a bit thin and the Mets simply don’t have enough top-shelf oomph to oust the Phillies or outlast the soon-to-emerge Braves.
The Marlins manage to stay somewhat competitive despite no budget, no fanbase and a sadistic owner, but this season they simply won’t be in the hunt. This is a 65-70 win team that, despite some young stars and a talented, developing rotation, are hampered by a weak bullpen, a subpar offense and a subpar defense. Cameron Maybin is still a year or two away from becoming a star in the Hanley Ramirez mold. Both he and Ramirez are subpar defenders who will get away with it due to their bats. New 3B Emilio Bonifacio is still a couple years away, if he will indeed meet his potential. Jeremy Hermida and Cody Ross hit for power but only give you so much in the lineup, while Jorge Cantu is the most reliable bat outside of Ramirez. Godspeed, new stadium.
The Washington Nationals will definitely hang with the Marlins for 4th in the NL East, but no one’s wrong about the Nationals being bad. They actually have an average lineup between Ryan Zimmerman, a healthy Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young, newly acquired Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes, with help from Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard. They’ll score some runs. The defense is also average, rather than bad as many may think. But the big problem with the Nationals is what has to be far and away the worst pitching staff in the majors. John Lannan fronts a rag-tag bunch of kids and tomato cans, many whom would struggle to hold down the middle of most AAA staffs. Daniel Cabrera is finished, rookie Jordan Zimmerman’s going to get initiated and Scott Olsen has a gopherball problem. The Nationals should allow the most runs in the NL, and it’ll be mainly because of poor pitching.
2. Atlanta Braves
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
The NL East is easily the best NL division, with three playoff contenders ahead of two also-rans.
The Phillies are well on their way to repeating. Despite his subpar defense in LF, Raul Ibañez adds an impact bat to the lineup that improves even on the departed Pat Burrell’s. This is the best lineup in the NL, with Ibañez, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shave Victorino, and plenty of productive help around them. The pitching staff has an okay rotation and a solid bullpen, but the real strength is the defense, easily the best in the majors in terms of run prevention. Jayson Werth by himself is one of the best outfielders in baseball. Utley and Rollins are one of baseball’s best double play tandems, Pedro Feliz is an excellent defensive 3B and Raul is the only real weak spot. The Phillies are what the Red Sox are in the AL: a seemingly unbeatable force that’s arguably the best at scoring and preventing runs.
No team should match the Rays’ surprise run (whether or not the saberheads were really surprised), but one team that should rebound strong from a down year is the Atlanta Braves. Picking up Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez quickly makes the Braves rotation the best in the NL, placing them ahead of the emerging Jair Jurjjens, strike throwing Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami and whichever MLB-ready rookie they elect to throw in the #5 spot. Their offense should also score a lot of runs, as the Braves have quietly assembled a consistently productive lineup built around veteran Chipper Jones and top-shelf catcher Brian McCann. Nearly all of these hitters can hit for some power, and much of the lineup consistently gets on base. The defense is merely average, but the Braves should quietly take the Wildcard in a 90-95 win season the old fashioned way: With solid pitching and solid hitting.
Sadly, the big money NY Mets just don’t have what it takes to crack the playoffs this year. Save for the huge JJ Putz trade and signing K-Rod this offseason, they didn’t really add any talent. The lineup, while one of the league’s better lineups, is essentially the same lineup they had last season. K-Rod and JJ vastly upgrade an okay bullpen to an okay bullpen fronted by two great relievers. The next best arm is one of those other players acquired in the JJ trade, Sean Green. Overall, the pitching is among the best in the NL thanks to the bullpen pickups, but the defense is simply decent, the bottom of the lineup gets a bit thin and the Mets simply don’t have enough top-shelf oomph to oust the Phillies or outlast the soon-to-emerge Braves.
The Marlins manage to stay somewhat competitive despite no budget, no fanbase and a sadistic owner, but this season they simply won’t be in the hunt. This is a 65-70 win team that, despite some young stars and a talented, developing rotation, are hampered by a weak bullpen, a subpar offense and a subpar defense. Cameron Maybin is still a year or two away from becoming a star in the Hanley Ramirez mold. Both he and Ramirez are subpar defenders who will get away with it due to their bats. New 3B Emilio Bonifacio is still a couple years away, if he will indeed meet his potential. Jeremy Hermida and Cody Ross hit for power but only give you so much in the lineup, while Jorge Cantu is the most reliable bat outside of Ramirez. Godspeed, new stadium.
The Washington Nationals will definitely hang with the Marlins for 4th in the NL East, but no one’s wrong about the Nationals being bad. They actually have an average lineup between Ryan Zimmerman, a healthy Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young, newly acquired Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes, with help from Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard. They’ll score some runs. The defense is also average, rather than bad as many may think. But the big problem with the Nationals is what has to be far and away the worst pitching staff in the majors. John Lannan fronts a rag-tag bunch of kids and tomato cans, many whom would struggle to hold down the middle of most AAA staffs. Daniel Cabrera is finished, rookie Jordan Zimmerman’s going to get initiated and Scott Olsen has a gopherball problem. The Nationals should allow the most runs in the NL, and it’ll be mainly because of poor pitching.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
An educated guess about the AL West for 2009
AL West
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers
The AL West is a battle of who wants to lose the least, with two weak .500-ish teams, one bad team, and one not so bad team.
Yes, I predicted the Seattle Mariners would win this division despite projecting them for the worst offense in the AL. No, I’m not making that pick as a Mariners fan and a homer. Their defense should be (despite Yuniesky Betancourt) the best in the AL. Add in an average pitching staff led by Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard, and they can easily steal this division with about 85-90 wins. They will play a lot of low scoring games, they have incorporated that annoying brand of smallball sacrifice and singles baseball that the Angels used to win the last few division titles, and the power arms at the front of their bullpen should lock down most games once they get a lead.
But the real reason they’ll win is because the Angels lost a good deal of talent and did too little to replace it. They don’t play that aforementioned smallball as well as they used to. Even if John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar weren’t injured, the Angels had lost closer Francisco Rodriguez and LF Garret Anderson, replacing them with… Bobby Abreu. Sure, Abreu is a great bat, but his defense is pretty bad in LF and he’s a definite defensive downgrade over the defensively average Anderson. This subtraction by addition helps turn a solid defense into a bad one.
The youngsters stepping up, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales, aren’t all particularly good defenders themselves, downgrading what was once a solid defensive infield. Vlad Guerrero is also getting older and he’s a slug in RF, albeit a slug with a cannon arm. The Angels struggled to reload their once great bullpen, and the injuries to Lackey and Santana (plus Nick Adenhart’s tragic death) have only exacerbated a shaky rotation situation (it was already doubtful we’d ever see Escobar again). After years of assured contention, a .500 season is a distinct possibility, even if Lackey and Santana come back on schedule and pitch well out of the gate all the way to season’s end. They could well hand the Mariners a division title by mid September.
Oakland should hang around 75 wins with a semi-productive lineup (with a lot of holes) and a cavernous home park with a flyball-killing sea breeze to help offset the crappiness of the A’s no name pitching staff. If Justin Duchscherer doesn’t return, Dana Eveland is their ace. Thankfully, while it seems they drew their bullpen’s names out of a hat, it’s a solid unit, and the defense, as always (thanks, Billy Beane) is an overall solid unit. They won’t get embarrassed, but they’re not going to compete.
If and when the Rangers’ up and coming young talent (Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, Elvis Andrus and a few others in the minors) develops and supplants the power-hitting mediocrity in front of them, they may have themselves a competitive team. Until then, they’ll have to settle for average defense, horrid pitching (they gave the withered remains of Kris Benson a job!) and a bandbox home park that makes both of those things worse, along with an offense of fading quality that can’t keep up. 90 losses, ahoy!
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers
The AL West is a battle of who wants to lose the least, with two weak .500-ish teams, one bad team, and one not so bad team.
Yes, I predicted the Seattle Mariners would win this division despite projecting them for the worst offense in the AL. No, I’m not making that pick as a Mariners fan and a homer. Their defense should be (despite Yuniesky Betancourt) the best in the AL. Add in an average pitching staff led by Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard, and they can easily steal this division with about 85-90 wins. They will play a lot of low scoring games, they have incorporated that annoying brand of smallball sacrifice and singles baseball that the Angels used to win the last few division titles, and the power arms at the front of their bullpen should lock down most games once they get a lead.
But the real reason they’ll win is because the Angels lost a good deal of talent and did too little to replace it. They don’t play that aforementioned smallball as well as they used to. Even if John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar weren’t injured, the Angels had lost closer Francisco Rodriguez and LF Garret Anderson, replacing them with… Bobby Abreu. Sure, Abreu is a great bat, but his defense is pretty bad in LF and he’s a definite defensive downgrade over the defensively average Anderson. This subtraction by addition helps turn a solid defense into a bad one.
The youngsters stepping up, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales, aren’t all particularly good defenders themselves, downgrading what was once a solid defensive infield. Vlad Guerrero is also getting older and he’s a slug in RF, albeit a slug with a cannon arm. The Angels struggled to reload their once great bullpen, and the injuries to Lackey and Santana (plus Nick Adenhart’s tragic death) have only exacerbated a shaky rotation situation (it was already doubtful we’d ever see Escobar again). After years of assured contention, a .500 season is a distinct possibility, even if Lackey and Santana come back on schedule and pitch well out of the gate all the way to season’s end. They could well hand the Mariners a division title by mid September.
Oakland should hang around 75 wins with a semi-productive lineup (with a lot of holes) and a cavernous home park with a flyball-killing sea breeze to help offset the crappiness of the A’s no name pitching staff. If Justin Duchscherer doesn’t return, Dana Eveland is their ace. Thankfully, while it seems they drew their bullpen’s names out of a hat, it’s a solid unit, and the defense, as always (thanks, Billy Beane) is an overall solid unit. They won’t get embarrassed, but they’re not going to compete.
If and when the Rangers’ up and coming young talent (Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, Elvis Andrus and a few others in the minors) develops and supplants the power-hitting mediocrity in front of them, they may have themselves a competitive team. Until then, they’ll have to settle for average defense, horrid pitching (they gave the withered remains of Kris Benson a job!) and a bandbox home park that makes both of those things worse, along with an offense of fading quality that can’t keep up. 90 losses, ahoy!
An educated guess about the AL Central for 2009
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox
This will actually be a close race between the Indians and Tigers in a so-so division, and the eventual champ will probably finish in the 85-90 win range. The Indians have slowly rebuilt with a solid young core of youngsters and productive low-cost vets. They easily have the best pitching staff in the division (though still a step below the millionaire Yankee and Red Sox rotations) and a decent defense. Their offense in sum won’t wow you but they have a bevy of productive bats.
The Tigers have gradually reloaded the lineup and while they never will score a ton of runs playing in cavernous Comerica Park, they pack enough power to provide a great defense and an average pitching staff with sufficient support. The Tigers also showed they were willing to unload veteran dead weight, such as Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers and Gary Sheffield, to play younger, more productive players. While they have a better defense than Cleveland, the Indians have a better pitching staff, and the two teams are nearly dead even overall. It would not surprise me to see the AL Central come down to a one game playoff between these two.
One surprise improvement this season will come from the Kansas City Royals, who, while making a series of unproductive pickups over the last couple years (Kyle Davies, Jose Guillen, Willie Bloomquist, Coco Crisp), made their biggest defensive improvement without adding anybody: they moved David DeJesus, a solid CF, to LF, where he becomes one of the position’s top defenders. The emergence of excellent defender Mike Aviles at SS now gives the Royals one of the AL’s best defenses. They won’t score enough runs to compete and their pitching staff still has a few tomato cans, but they can easily play .500 ball.
Fans are high on the Twins, but don’t count on them winning more than 80 games this season, if they can even manage 70-75. Their defense gets help from speedsters like Denard Span and Carlos Gomez, but they still have a few holes, their offense lacks consistency and pop (even with Joe Mauer) and they did little to improve their nondescript, mediocre pitching staff.
The White Sox offense will do a decent job despite some lineup holes (like the revolving door in CF, the fading AJ Pierzynski at catcher and the developing Chris Getz at 2B). But what seals their doom is a weak pitching staff coupled with a terrible defense. Jermaine Dye is a horrible RF, Alexei Ramirez is not a good fielder wherever he plays, none of their fielders are standout defenders and bench players like Wilson Betemit don’t make good defensive replacements. Add in home run friendly U.S. Cellular Field, and the ChiSox should lead the league in runs… allowed. This team likely reaches 95 losses, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen will likely lose their jobs, and many of the incumbent vets (Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle) should get the old heave-ho via trade or free agency during or after 2009.
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox
This will actually be a close race between the Indians and Tigers in a so-so division, and the eventual champ will probably finish in the 85-90 win range. The Indians have slowly rebuilt with a solid young core of youngsters and productive low-cost vets. They easily have the best pitching staff in the division (though still a step below the millionaire Yankee and Red Sox rotations) and a decent defense. Their offense in sum won’t wow you but they have a bevy of productive bats.
The Tigers have gradually reloaded the lineup and while they never will score a ton of runs playing in cavernous Comerica Park, they pack enough power to provide a great defense and an average pitching staff with sufficient support. The Tigers also showed they were willing to unload veteran dead weight, such as Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers and Gary Sheffield, to play younger, more productive players. While they have a better defense than Cleveland, the Indians have a better pitching staff, and the two teams are nearly dead even overall. It would not surprise me to see the AL Central come down to a one game playoff between these two.
One surprise improvement this season will come from the Kansas City Royals, who, while making a series of unproductive pickups over the last couple years (Kyle Davies, Jose Guillen, Willie Bloomquist, Coco Crisp), made their biggest defensive improvement without adding anybody: they moved David DeJesus, a solid CF, to LF, where he becomes one of the position’s top defenders. The emergence of excellent defender Mike Aviles at SS now gives the Royals one of the AL’s best defenses. They won’t score enough runs to compete and their pitching staff still has a few tomato cans, but they can easily play .500 ball.
Fans are high on the Twins, but don’t count on them winning more than 80 games this season, if they can even manage 70-75. Their defense gets help from speedsters like Denard Span and Carlos Gomez, but they still have a few holes, their offense lacks consistency and pop (even with Joe Mauer) and they did little to improve their nondescript, mediocre pitching staff.
The White Sox offense will do a decent job despite some lineup holes (like the revolving door in CF, the fading AJ Pierzynski at catcher and the developing Chris Getz at 2B). But what seals their doom is a weak pitching staff coupled with a terrible defense. Jermaine Dye is a horrible RF, Alexei Ramirez is not a good fielder wherever he plays, none of their fielders are standout defenders and bench players like Wilson Betemit don’t make good defensive replacements. Add in home run friendly U.S. Cellular Field, and the ChiSox should lead the league in runs… allowed. This team likely reaches 95 losses, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen will likely lose their jobs, and many of the incumbent vets (Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle) should get the old heave-ho via trade or free agency during or after 2009.
An educated guess about the AL East for 2009
AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox have the best lineup, one of the best defenses and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. This division is theirs for the taking unless something catastrophic happens.
The Rays just don’t have the firepower to outhit the Yankees and Red Sox, but they have the talent to outplay any other team in any other division.
What will eventually do in the Yankees’ division title hopes is their subpar defense: Jeter’s liability as a defensive SS is starting to enter public knowledge, A-Rod’s slipped at 3B himself (plus he’s going to miss about half the season, with the questionable Cody Ransom taking his place), and Xavier Nady’s injury actually led the Yankees to upgrade his subpar defense in RF by playing Nick Swisher. That said, they should still outlast the Rays for the Wildcard, as the Yankees have more offense and much better pitching, which can offset the defensive shortcomings.
Toronto’s patchwork pitching staff, led by a very strong Roy Halladay, should work well with a solid defense to get the Blue Jays around .500 despite a subpar offense, not bad for a 4th place team in MLB’s toughest division.
The Orioles have an average lineup and a decent defense, but their pitching situation is horrid, with a lack of depth leading them to run AAA-worthy arms out there. Expect 100 losses.
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox have the best lineup, one of the best defenses and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. This division is theirs for the taking unless something catastrophic happens.
The Rays just don’t have the firepower to outhit the Yankees and Red Sox, but they have the talent to outplay any other team in any other division.
What will eventually do in the Yankees’ division title hopes is their subpar defense: Jeter’s liability as a defensive SS is starting to enter public knowledge, A-Rod’s slipped at 3B himself (plus he’s going to miss about half the season, with the questionable Cody Ransom taking his place), and Xavier Nady’s injury actually led the Yankees to upgrade his subpar defense in RF by playing Nick Swisher. That said, they should still outlast the Rays for the Wildcard, as the Yankees have more offense and much better pitching, which can offset the defensive shortcomings.
Toronto’s patchwork pitching staff, led by a very strong Roy Halladay, should work well with a solid defense to get the Blue Jays around .500 despite a subpar offense, not bad for a 4th place team in MLB’s toughest division.
The Orioles have an average lineup and a decent defense, but their pitching situation is horrid, with a lack of depth leading them to run AAA-worthy arms out there. Expect 100 losses.
MLB: They call these predictions. I call them educated guesses
After a copious amount of statistical research, analysis and projections this year's MLB teams, here are my educated guesses at where teams will finish, along with how I think each team in each league ranks in the main components: offense, pitching and defense.
AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox
AL West
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers
Batting rank:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Texas Rangers
5. Detroit Tigers
6. Tampa Bay Rays
7. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Baltimore Orioles
10. Oakland Athletics
11. Toronto Blue Jays
12. Kansas City Royals
13. Minnesota Twins
14. Seattle Mariners
Pitching rank:
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
6. Toronto Blue Jays
7. Seattle Mariners
8. Kansas City Royals
9. Detroit Tigers
10. Oakland Athletics
11. Minnesota Twins
12. Chicago White Sox
13. Baltimore Orioles
14. Texas Rangers
Defense rank:
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Toronto Blue Jays
7. Oakland Athletics
8. Baltimore Orioles
9. Cleveland Indians
10. Minnesota Twins
11. Texas Rangers
12. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
13. New York Yankees
14. Chicago White Sox
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. St Louis Cardinals
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Offense rank:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Milwaukee Brewers
7. New York Mets
8. St Louis Cardinals
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
10. Washington Nationals
11. Cincinnati Reds
12. Florida Marlins
13. Houston Astros
14. San Diego Padres
15. Pittsburgh Pirates
16. San Francisco Giants
Pitching rank:
1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Chicago Cubs
5. San Francisco Giants
6. St Louis Cardinals
7. Philadelphia Phillies
8. San Diego Padres
9. Cincinnati Reds
10. Arizona Diamondbacks
11. Milwaukee Brewers
12. Houston Astros
13. Florida Marlins
14. Colorado Rockies
15. Pittsburgh Pirates
16. Washington Nationals
Defense rank:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Chicago Cubs
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Houston Astros
5. New York Mets
6. Cincinnati Reds
7. Pittsburgh Pirates
8. Atlanta Braves
9. Washington Nationals
10. Milwaukee Brewers
11. St Louis Cardinals
12. Florida Marlins
13. Colorado Rockies
14. San Diego Padres
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
16. Los Angeles Dodgers
And though the playoffs take on a crapshoot like quality, here are some 'for the hell of it' predictions for the resulting playoff series:
AL Division Series:
Boston Red Sox over Cleveland Indians
New York Yankees over Seattle Mariners
AL Championship Series: Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees
NL Division Series:
Philadelphia Phillies over San Francisco Giants
Atlanta Braves over Chicago Cubs
NL Championship Series: Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta Braves
World Series: Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox
I'll look to explain this a little further later.
AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox
AL West
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers
Batting rank:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Texas Rangers
5. Detroit Tigers
6. Tampa Bay Rays
7. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Baltimore Orioles
10. Oakland Athletics
11. Toronto Blue Jays
12. Kansas City Royals
13. Minnesota Twins
14. Seattle Mariners
Pitching rank:
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
6. Toronto Blue Jays
7. Seattle Mariners
8. Kansas City Royals
9. Detroit Tigers
10. Oakland Athletics
11. Minnesota Twins
12. Chicago White Sox
13. Baltimore Orioles
14. Texas Rangers
Defense rank:
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Toronto Blue Jays
7. Oakland Athletics
8. Baltimore Orioles
9. Cleveland Indians
10. Minnesota Twins
11. Texas Rangers
12. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
13. New York Yankees
14. Chicago White Sox
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. St Louis Cardinals
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Offense rank:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Milwaukee Brewers
7. New York Mets
8. St Louis Cardinals
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
10. Washington Nationals
11. Cincinnati Reds
12. Florida Marlins
13. Houston Astros
14. San Diego Padres
15. Pittsburgh Pirates
16. San Francisco Giants
Pitching rank:
1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Chicago Cubs
5. San Francisco Giants
6. St Louis Cardinals
7. Philadelphia Phillies
8. San Diego Padres
9. Cincinnati Reds
10. Arizona Diamondbacks
11. Milwaukee Brewers
12. Houston Astros
13. Florida Marlins
14. Colorado Rockies
15. Pittsburgh Pirates
16. Washington Nationals
Defense rank:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Chicago Cubs
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Houston Astros
5. New York Mets
6. Cincinnati Reds
7. Pittsburgh Pirates
8. Atlanta Braves
9. Washington Nationals
10. Milwaukee Brewers
11. St Louis Cardinals
12. Florida Marlins
13. Colorado Rockies
14. San Diego Padres
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
16. Los Angeles Dodgers
And though the playoffs take on a crapshoot like quality, here are some 'for the hell of it' predictions for the resulting playoff series:
AL Division Series:
Boston Red Sox over Cleveland Indians
New York Yankees over Seattle Mariners
AL Championship Series: Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees
NL Division Series:
Philadelphia Phillies over San Francisco Giants
Atlanta Braves over Chicago Cubs
NL Championship Series: Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta Braves
World Series: Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox
I'll look to explain this a little further later.
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