Net Runs Special, 5-5-2010: The game that incurred Bruce Drennan's wrath (Toronto 5, Cleveland 4)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TOR	Brandon Morrow	-0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000	0.000	5.39	16
TOR	Jose Molina	0.875	0.875	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Lyle Overbay	-1.230	-0.786	0.000	0.075	-0.519	0.00	0
TOR	Aaron Hill	-0.251	-1.591	0.000	1.340	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Jose Bautista	-1.065	-0.255	0.000	-0.810	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Alex Gonzalez	-0.023	-0.646	0.000	0.623	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Fred Lewis	1.045	0.689	0.000	0.356	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Vernon Wells	1.274	0.326	0.000	0.838	0.110	0.00	0
TOR	Travis Snider	-0.469	-0.198	0.000	-0.303	0.032	0.00	0
TOR	Adam Lind	1.608	1.818	0.000	0.000	-0.210	0.00	0
TOR	Jason Frasor	0.391	0.000	0.391	0.000	0.000	1.65	4
TOR	Shawn Camp	0.089	0.000	0.089	0.000	0.000	2.98	2
TOR	Mike McCoy	-0.089	-0.320	0.000	0.231	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	John Buck	-0.164	-0.164	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Rommie Lewis	-0.627	0.000	-0.627	0.000	0.000	7.24	5
TOR	TOR Luckbox	1.420	1.420	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Cito Gaston	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
CLE	Fausto Carmona	-2.049	0.000	-2.552	0.503	0.000	7.46	19
CLE	Mike Redmond	0.902	0.902	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Russell Branyan	0.842	-0.007	0.000	0.849	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Mark Grudzielanek	-1.668	-1.710	0.000	0.516	-0.474	0.00	0
CLE	Jhonny Peralta	-0.041	-1.338	0.000	1.297	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Luis Valbuena	0.706	0.722	0.000	-0.016	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Matt LaPorta	0.404	0.975	0.000	-0.571	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Grady Sizemore	-0.311	-0.018	0.000	-0.293	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Travis Hafner	1.727	0.733	0.000	0.994	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Shin,Soo Choo	-0.001	-0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Tony Sipp	0.977	0.000	0.977	0.000	0.000	-4.05	3
CLE	Chris Perez	-0.332	0.000	-0.332	0.000	0.000	5.76	5
CLE	Austin Kearns	0.117	0.117	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Lou Marson	-0.430	-0.320	0.000	-0.110	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	CLE Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Manny Acta	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Progressive Field	2.803	0.000	0.000	-2.803	0.000	0.00	0

Here is the text of Bruce Drennan's epic rant, and I'll include contextual Net Runs data in the transcript when applicable:

We stink, man. Ah... I thought Carmona... he wasn't GREAT (-2.552 NRuns)... but he certainly pitched well enough to WIN, considering (his team saved a couple runs for him and scored 4)....

Oh, Valbuena! Valbuena, Valbuena, Valbuena (-1.420 NRuns from two errors in 9th)... you know what? Give him back to the Mets, man (actually he came from the Mariners in the Franklin Gutierrez trade, though the Mets were involved in that trade). You know, somebody said he should be in Columbus tonight. I said... send him to Mahoning Valley. He can't do any harm there! They haven't even started their season!!

Oh! Ugh! Painful. Uh... Branyan (-0.007 hitting Runs). Here it is. Here's his stroke. [simulates slow, graceful left handed swing of bat] Beautfiul form [repeats]... IF IT'S A PRACTICE SWING ON THE FIRST TEE! [repeats] Let's pretend I'm a ballerina.

Unbelieveable! Oh! And Peralta... oh God (-1.338 hitting NRuns). Oh... oh... I am in such pain, PAIN I SAY. Oh, I have pain in my side on this side, I have pain in my side on this side, my knees hurt, my elbow hurts like LeBron, most of all my head hurts, my psyche's hurt, I'm hurting all over my body, head to toe. Ohhh God. WE STINK. STINK.

And I'll tell you something else... the starting pitching has been pretty good, pretty good. Just think if they go South... with this... Big Red Machine of the mid 70's lineup that we got (0.055 NRuns today). Just think if that starting rotation goes sour- which has been pretty good, including today (again, no). Just think of that. Ohh! Oh!

Peralta... OHH!! you know, I'll give him credit (1.297 fielding NRuns)... he made two... outstanding defensive plays- which I was in awe of, I mean, I couldn't... the play he made by the dugout (0.584 NRuns) there by the stands was truly a tremendous play. I... if you would have said to me, is he capable of making that play- I would have obviously said no. I'm just thinking what odds- you know All Bets Are Off here, but what odds would I give you that he would make that play, I mean, you're getting the point... I mean, give credit where it's due (Tony Sipp actually got credited for the NRuns on that play as it was a pop up). He made that play and he made that line drive, that great play on that line drive too (1.222 NRuns for that play, coming with men on the corners and one out).

But 0 or 5 for Peralta- including at the end of the game when we actually had a shot at the bottom of the 9th inning to tie it up after the disaster in the top of the 9th*!!! Unbelieveable! Peralta, a .216 after- even after he got a home run and IT'S ABOUT TIME... 212. Sizemore, 220. OH. Uh, Branyan [repeats Branyan swing]... .212.

(* - Chris Perez: -0.851 NRuns that frame, 12.08 EXERA. Valbuena: -0.570 NRuns at SS that inning. Toronto Luckbox: 1.420 NRuns. Cleveland lost a 4-2 lead in the 9th and the 5-4 deficit would eventually be the final.)

LaPorta, OH MY (-0.571 fielding NRuns)- How about the play by LaPorta in Left Field (-0.796 NRuns)? Chuck Miller... I've known Chuck- he was the official scorer today. I've known Chuck for decades... greta guy, good baseball man and a good official scorer. Uh, a writer... for many many many years, good baseball man. Ahem... I'm all choked up here... uh... he was wrong on that play. That can't be a triple THAT CAN'T BE A TRIPLE IT CAN'T BE A TRIPLE THAT'S AN ERROR ON LAPORTA I DON'T CARE WHAT ANYBODY SAYS. THAT'S AN ERROR ON LAPORTA. Turning around like this it's like in my swivel chair here!

(Net Runs, of course, credited LaPorta in full for the gaffe regardless, while Carmona got -0.040 for allowing a flyball. However, Jose Bautista got a 0.836 NRun gift for hitting what was probably a flyout)

My God, did anybody remind these players who are making millions of dollars... even the kids are making four, five, six hundred thousand dollars, you know. That's a lot of money! That's even more than (the producer) Gene makes. Did anybody remind them this is the Major Leagues? Did anybody remind them this is the Major Leagues?

An updated look at the AL Central

Minnesota - The Twins didn't realize it, but their bullpen overhaul actually made them worse. Sure, they had to replace the injured Jesse Crain, but Jose Mijares and Juan Morillo (though the Twins went out of their way to get him on the roster, there's a reason the pitching-starved Rockies dumped him last season) have such bad control problems that they may actually pitch BELOW replacement level. R.A. Dickey is fine as a replacement arm, but swapping out Brian Duensing and punting Phillip Humber while relying on three replacement arms is not. The Twins now have a serious shot at 90 losses.

Kansas City - Alex Gordon's injury leads to Mitch Maier's promotion (he's not a bad bench bat) and more time for Alberto Callaspo. The team should see surprisingly little dropoff, as Gordon's defense was simply okay, his hitting was decent but not great, Maier adds some power off the bench and Callaspo isn't terrible at the plate. Brian Bannister supplants Horacio Ramirez in the rotation, and gives a bit above replacement level effort at best. For some reason, I expected Ramirez to be halfway decent. Huh. Anyway, the Royals' chances of .500 baseball go down from these developments, and 85 losses now seems a more solid prognosis.

Detroit - Backup catcher Matt treanor got hurt, and now something called Dane Sardinha backs up Gerald Laird, downgrading the offense just a bit (Treanor is a least a bit above replacement level). Losing Marcus Thames however (ribs) is a huge blow, even if Ryan Raburn's power and better ability to get on base makes him a solid replacement. Thames had other-worldly power, and even the best backup power bat is a big downgrade. Offsetting some of that damage is the return to Joel Zumaya to the bullpen, instantly bolstering an average unit. Also bolstering Detroit's chances is the increased likelihood that the halfway-decent Zach Miner will stick in the rotation, as Rick Porcello hasn't impressed as Jeremy Bonderman's fill-in. As it stands, 85-90 wins and the AL Central title is still an easy possibility.

Cleveland - Scott Lewis will spend a week or two on the DL with a forearm strain, meaning replacement innings from Aaron Laffey. The Indians turned over their bullpen, sending down Zach Jackson and bringing in the likes of Vinnie Chulk, Jensen Lewis and Tony Sipp, slightly above replacement level downgrades. This reduces the likelihood of significant innings from Zach Jackson, as the team likely won't give him a chance to start until later this season, if at all before September. This is the opening the Tigers may need to sneak off with the Central, as when we started the two teams were neck and neck. But this drops the Indians to a solid 85 win team.

Chicago White Sox - The team sent away struggling Mike MacDougal and decided to test drive replacement level Lance Broadway. He's a downgrade but this is already a bleh pitching staff hampered by a bad defense, so not much loss there. Jerry Owens is back as DeWayne Wise hits the DL with a separated shoulder, but it looks like an improved Brian Anderson will soak up most of the starts at CF. This team still sucks, on the 95-100 loss level.

An educated guess about the AL Central for 2009

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox

This will actually be a close race between the Indians and Tigers in a so-so division, and the eventual champ will probably finish in the 85-90 win range. The Indians have slowly rebuilt with a solid young core of youngsters and productive low-cost vets. They easily have the best pitching staff in the division (though still a step below the millionaire Yankee and Red Sox rotations) and a decent defense. Their offense in sum won’t wow you but they have a bevy of productive bats.

The Tigers have gradually reloaded the lineup and while they never will score a ton of runs playing in cavernous Comerica Park, they pack enough power to provide a great defense and an average pitching staff with sufficient support. The Tigers also showed they were willing to unload veteran dead weight, such as Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers and Gary Sheffield, to play younger, more productive players. While they have a better defense than Cleveland, the Indians have a better pitching staff, and the two teams are nearly dead even overall. It would not surprise me to see the AL Central come down to a one game playoff between these two.

One surprise improvement this season will come from the Kansas City Royals, who, while making a series of unproductive pickups over the last couple years (Kyle Davies, Jose Guillen, Willie Bloomquist, Coco Crisp), made their biggest defensive improvement without adding anybody: they moved David DeJesus, a solid CF, to LF, where he becomes one of the position’s top defenders. The emergence of excellent defender Mike Aviles at SS now gives the Royals one of the AL’s best defenses. They won’t score enough runs to compete and their pitching staff still has a few tomato cans, but they can easily play .500 ball.

Fans are high on the Twins, but don’t count on them winning more than 80 games this season, if they can even manage 70-75. Their defense gets help from speedsters like Denard Span and Carlos Gomez, but they still have a few holes, their offense lacks consistency and pop (even with Joe Mauer) and they did little to improve their nondescript, mediocre pitching staff.

The White Sox offense will do a decent job despite some lineup holes (like the revolving door in CF, the fading AJ Pierzynski at catcher and the developing Chris Getz at 2B). But what seals their doom is a weak pitching staff coupled with a terrible defense. Jermaine Dye is a horrible RF, Alexei Ramirez is not a good fielder wherever he plays, none of their fielders are standout defenders and bench players like Wilson Betemit don’t make good defensive replacements. Add in home run friendly U.S. Cellular Field, and the ChiSox should lead the league in runs… allowed. This team likely reaches 95 losses, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen will likely lose their jobs, and many of the incumbent vets (Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle) should get the old heave-ho via trade or free agency during or after 2009.