Showing posts with label St Louis Cardinals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label St Louis Cardinals. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-16-2010 (Seattle 2, St Louis 1)


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAJason Vargas -0.282-0.4970.2150.0000.0003.8323
SEAEliezer Alfonzo -1.631-1.1740.000-0.248-0.2090.000
SEARyan Langerhans -0.476-0.2550.000-0.2210.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins 0.6260.5160.0000.0000.1100.000
SEAJose Lopez 0.2480.1080.0000.1400.0000.000
SEAJosh Wilson -0.465-0.4860.0000.0210.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley -0.1820.0080.000-0.1900.0000.000
SEAMichael Saunders 2.323-0.0750.0002.3980.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 0.6090.7160.0000.698-0.8050.000
SEABrandon League 0.3510.0000.3510.0000.000-4.721
SEARob Johnson 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAMatt Tuiasosopo -0.319-0.5090.0000.1900.0000.000
SEADavid Aardsma -0.1260.000-0.1260.0000.0005.113
SEASEA Luckbox0.3240.1690.0000.1550.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
STLJaime Garcia -0.911-0.394-0.5170.0000.0004.6821
STLYadier Molina -0.948-0.6490.000-0.2990.0000.000
STLAlbert Pujols 0.127-0.0150.0000.1420.0000.000
STLFelipe Lopez -1.319-1.1100.000-0.2090.0000.000
STLDavid Freese 0.7490.2970.0000.4520.0000.000
STLBrendan Ryan -0.800-0.2560.000-0.5440.0000.000
STLMatt Holliday 0.780-0.9080.0001.6880.0000.000
STLColby Rasmus -1.217-1.1420.000-0.0750.0000.000
STLRyan Ludwick 0.7060.1270.0000.5790.0000.000
STLRandy Winn 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
STLTrever Miller 0.0090.0000.0090.0000.0003.993
STLJason Motte 1.1980.0001.1980.0000.000-5.933
STLDennys Reyes -0.0410.000-0.0410.0000.000∞0
STLNick Stavinoha 0.5740.4120.0000.0000.1620.000
STLSTL Luckbox0.2480.2480.0000.0000.0000.000
STLTony LaRussa-0.155-0.1550.0000.0000.0000.000
 Busch Stadium0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.487


Player of the Game: Michael Saunders (2.323 NRuns: -0.075 hitting, 2.398 fielding)

Goat? Eliezer Aflonzo (-1.631 NRuns: -1.174 hitting, -0.248 fielding, -0.209 running)

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-15-2010 (St Louis 4, Seattle 2)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEARyan Rowland-Smith -2.909-0.548-2.3610.0000.0008.9912
SEARob Johnson 0.1710.1240.0000.0470.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman -1.069-0.7180.000-0.3510.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins -1.338-1.1010.000-0.2370.0000.000
SEAJose Lopez 1.5930.2320.0001.3610.0000.000
SEAJosh Wilson -1.676-1.9360.0000.2600.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley 2.2471.3650.0000.8820.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 0.724-0.5490.0001.2730.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 2.110-0.5100.0002.4780.1420.000
SEAGarrett Olson -1.0640.000-1.0640.0000.0008.506
SEABrandon League 0.2060.0000.2060.0000.0002.343
SEAShawn Kelley 0.1240.0000.331-0.2070.0001.303
SEARyan Langerhans 1.0001.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAMike Carp 0.1160.1160.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.1550.0000.0000.1550.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
STLJeff Suppan 0.1390.0170.1220.0000.0003.8112
STLYadier Molina -1.074-0.9320.000-0.1420.0000.000
STLAlbert Pujols 0.1390.4940.0000.280-0.6350.000
STLSkip Schumaker -0.7100.2030.000-0.9130.0000.000
STLDavid Freese 0.2300.0900.0000.1400.0000.000
STLBrendan Ryan 2.9191.1110.0001.6460.1620.000
STLMatt Holliday 0.406-0.6370.0001.0430.0000.000
STLColby Rasmus 1.5701.2980.0000.2720.0000.000
STLRyan Ludwick -0.493-1.0960.0000.6030.0000.000
STLKyle McClellan 0.5540.0000.3230.2310.0002.726
STLRandy Winn -0.163-0.1630.0000.0000.0000.000
STLRyan Franklin -0.3740.000-0.3740.0000.0007.183
STLBlake Hawksworth 0.6310.0000.6310.0000.0000.905
STLTrever Miller -0.0410.000-0.0410.0000.0005.091
STLFelipe Lopez 0.0610.0550.0000.0060.0000.000
STLNick Stavinoha 0.2600.2600.0000.0000.0000.000
STLSTL Luckbox0.0320.0320.0000.0000.0000.000
STLTony LaRussa-0.155-0.1550.0000.0000.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.487


Player of the Game: Brendan Ryan (2.919 NRuns: 1.111 hitting, 1.646 fielding, 0.162 running)

Goat: Ryan Rowland-Smith (-2.909 NRuns: -0.548 hitting, -2.361 pitching, 8.99 EXERA)

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-14-2010 (St Louis 9, Seattle 3)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEALuke French -3.667-0.093-3.5740.0000.00011.5212
SEARob Johnson -0.696-0.6960.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAMike Carp -0.253-0.3710.0000.1180.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins 1.8781.0870.0000.5430.2480.000
SEAJose Lopez -3.420-0.9400.000-1.845-0.6350.000
SEAJosh Wilson 0.189-0.8760.0001.0650.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley -0.020-0.6650.0000.5350.1100.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 0.321-1.4860.0001.8070.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 3.4401.6800.0001.7600.0000.000
SEAIan Snell -0.7640.000-0.7640.0000.0007.256
SEAChad Cordero -0.8360.000-0.8360.0000.00011.043
SEASean White -1.4040.000-1.4040.0000.00015.783
SEAMichael Saunders 0.9620.4120.0000.5500.0000.000
SEARyan Langerhans -0.163-0.1630.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox1.0051.0050.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
STLAdam Wainwright -0.7800.192-0.7630.000-0.2094.9721
STLYadier Molina -1.076-1.0760.0000.0000.0000.000
STLAlbert Pujols 1.9102.9510.000-0.207-0.8340.000
STLFelipe Lopez -1.990-1.3510.000-0.6390.0000.000
STLDavid Freese -0.078-0.6980.0000.6200.0000.000
STLBrendan Ryan -0.077-0.1180.0000.0410.0000.000
STLMatt Holliday 0.9630.4340.0000.5290.0000.000
STLColby Rasmus 3.6381.5360.0002.1020.0000.000
STLRyan Ludwick 3.2662.6770.0000.5890.0000.000
STLAaron Miles 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
STLJason Motte 0.4010.0000.4010.0000.0000.723
STLMitchell Boggs -0.3310.000-0.3310.0000.0006.823
STLSTL Luckbox1.6001.6000.0000.0000.0000.000
STLTony LaRussa0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Busch Stadium4.0180.0000.000-4.0180.0000.000
 RE/Inning: 0.487


Co-Players of the Game:

Colby Rasmus (3.638 NRuns: 1.536 hitting, 2.102 fielding)
Ryan Ludwick (3.266 NRuns: 2.677 hitting, 0.589 fielding)

Cardinals luckbox: 1.600 NRuns

Mariners luckbox: 1.005 NRuns

Mariners Player of the Game: Ichiro (3.440 NRuns: 1.680 hitting, 1.760 fielding)

Co-Goats:

Luke French (-3.667 NRuns: -0.093 hitting, -3.574 pitching, 11.52 EXERA)
Jose Lopez (-3.420 NRuns: -0.940 hitting, -1.845 fielding, -0.635 running)
Mariners bullpen (-3.004 NRuns, 11.14 EXERA)

******

I will only add that never have I seen three such good performances in a game with two such bad performances. This even ignores Sean White's awful 8th inning (-1.404 NRuns, 15.78 EXERA), not to mention the garbage effort by the rest of the bullpen (though Ian Snell's striking out of the side was a fine way to go out: He was DFA'd today).

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Net Runs Special, 4-17-2010: The Game You Thought Would Never End (NY Mets 2, St Louis 1, 20 innings)


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
NYMJohan Santana 1.621-0.1631.7840.0000.000
NYMRod Barajas -0.768-0.5320.000-0.2360.000
NYMFernando Tatis -0.512-0.5120.0000.0000.000
NYMLuis Castillo 0.682-0.9440.0001.6260.000
NYMDavid Wright -0.121-0.4530.0000.431-0.099
NYMJose Reyes -0.836-1.4070.0000.5710.000
NYMJason Bay 0.140-1.2010.0001.3410.000
NYMAngel Pagan 2.4591.0090.0001.659-0.209
NYMJeff Francoeur -1.624-1.7760.0000.1520.000
NYMNYM Luckbox0.6220.6220.0000.0000.000
NYMJerry Manuel-0.912-0.723-0.1890.0000.000
NYMFernando Nieve 1.3100.0001.3100.0000.000
NYMHenry Blanco 0.295-0.5570.0000.8520.000
NYMJohn Maine 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
NYMHisanori Takahashi 1.0210.0001.715-0.6940.000
NYMJonathon Niese -0.093-0.0930.0000.0000.000
NYMJenrry Mejia 0.1460.0000.1460.0000.000
NYMRaul Valdes -1.996-0.511-1.0620.000-0.423
NYMFrancisco Rodriguez -1.1420.000-1.1420.0000.000
NYMMike Pelfrey -0.0040.000-0.0040.0000.000
NYMFrank Catalanotto -0.093-0.0930.0000.0000.000
NYMRyota Igarashi 0.2340.0000.2340.0000.000
NYMPedro Feliciano 0.2480.0000.2480.0000.000
NYMAlex Cora 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
NYMGary Matthews Jr-0.307-0.3070.0000.0000.000
NYMMike Jacobs 0.4010.4010.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBase
STLJaime Garcia 0.727-0.6081.1930.1420.000
STLYadier Molina 0.2430.1440.0000.0990.000
STLAlbert Pujols 2.1220.8070.0001.3150.000
STLSkip Schumaker -0.757-0.5710.0000.023-0.209
STLDavid Freese 0.167-0.0470.0000.2140.000
STLFelipe Lopez -0.785-1.0250.1650.284-0.209
STLMatt Holliday -1.113-1.8590.0000.7460.000
STLColby Rasmus -1.050-1.0590.0000.0090.000
STLRyan Ludwick -1.197-0.9510.0000.870-1.116
STLSTL Luckbox0.4250.4250.0000.0000.000
STLTony LaRussa-0.855-0.070-0.622-0.1630.000
STLTrever Miller 0.2310.000-0.5150.7460.000
STLJason Motte -0.518-0.7710.484-0.2310.000
STLDennys Reyes 0.2810.0000.2810.0000.000
STLBlake Hawksworth -0.615-0.7710.1560.0000.000
STLBryan Anderson -0.481-0.4810.0000.0000.000
STLRyan Franklin 0.3570.0000.3570.0000.000
STLKyle Lohse 0.301-0.3070.0000.6080.000
STLKyle McClellan 0.6900.0000.6900.0000.000
STLNick Stavinoha 0.2600.2600.0000.0000.000
STLMitchell Boggs 0.1140.0000.1140.0000.000
STLAllen Craig -0.095-0.4380.0000.552-0.209
STLJoe Mather -0.993-0.018-1.3690.3940.000
STLBrendan Ryan -0.695-0.6540.000-0.2040.163


Expected ERAs for today's pitching performances:

Johan Santana: 1.94
Fernando Nieve: 0.00
Hisanori Takahashi: 0.00
Jenrry Mejia: 3.45
Raul Valdes: 8.49
Francisco Rodriguez: 13.59
Mike Pelfrey: 4.10
Ryota Igarashi: 2.60
Pedro Feliciano: 2.51

Jaime Garcia: 2.64
Trever Miller: 8.36
Jason Motte: 1.03
Dennys Reyes: 1.72
Blake Hawksworth: 3.51
Ryan Franklin: 1.08
Kyle McClellan: 1.18
Mitchell Boggs: 3.35
---
Felipe Lopez: 2.69
Joe Mather: 9.77

NYM Player of the Game: CF Angel Pagan (2.459 NRuns: 1.009 hitting, 1.659 fielding, -0.209 running)

STL Player of the Game: 1B Albert Pujols (2.122 NRuns: 0.807 hitting, 1.315 fielding)

NYM Goat: RP Raul Valdes (-1.996 NRuns: -0.511 hitting, -1.062 pitching, -0.423 running)

STL Goat: OF Ryan Ludwick (-1.197 NRuns: -0.951 hitting, 0.870 fielding, -1.116 running)

The Net Runs surprise from a game this long is that no player cost his team more than a run and change, while no player contributed more than 2 runs and change. This was also a rare game in that Busch Stadium itself had no impact on the run expectancy: No ball went over the fence, and only Albert Pujols' 19th inning double came close to the wall. Every bit of run expectancy was impacted between the lines and in full control of the participating teams.

... except when the managers meddled. Mets manager Jerry Manuel and Cards manager Tony LaRussa combined to leak away 1.767 runs through sacrifice bunts and intentional walks. Granted, in the end game some of the intentional walks were somewhat smart, done so to get to one of the many relief pitchers who were forced to bat with two outs for an easy out. But many of the sacrifices and free passes came with no or one out, and while things could have gone badly for either manager as a result, they did not until the 19th and 20th innings.

Oddly enough, Jerry Manuel held K-Rod until his team finally took the lead in the top 19th, only to watch K-Rod pitch atrociously and blow the save in the bottom 19th before escaping. The key to victory for the Mets, however, was the Cardinals bullpen running out of gas, and Tony LaRussa being forced to enlist position players Felipe Lopez and Joe Mather to pitch (which matched just fine with pitcher Kyle Lohse being forced into duty in left field... Lohse BTW actually did a decent job fielding in left).

Felipe Lopez actually pitched fairly well, but only threw a single inning, and Mather, left out there for two frames, pitched much, much more like a player who never pitches. Two free passes, a line drive and two sac flies later, the Mets had a lead they would not relinquish, and it was coincidentally another out of place player, #2 starter Mike Pelfrey, who came on and pitched a decent 20th for an oddball save he likely will never forget.

Friday, April 24, 2009

An educated guess about the NL Central for 2009

1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. St Louis Cardinals
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Cubs will have the easiest road to a division title of any division winner. No one in the Central has enough to play better than .500 ball, let alone challenge the Cubs. The Cubs have one of the NL’s best defenses, a solid pitching staff with upside (if Rich Harden stays healthy, he’s the best pitcher in baseball) and a top productive lineup. Everyone else in the Central has their liabilities, but the Cubs don’t have any.

Milwaukee had managed a slow climb to competitive respectability the last few years, but they will take a step backward this season. They should still finish at or above .500, but they cannot hang with the Cubs. The defense has talent (like JJ Hardy at SS) but also liabilities (like Ryan Braun in LF and Prince Fielder at 1B) and comes out about average overall. The pitching staff took a huge drop with the departure of CC Sabathia, and the developing Yovani Gallardo fronts a ho-hum group. The offense can definitely score runs with power bats Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun leading a loaded, powerful lineup, but they don’t pack enough of a punch in run prevention to do anything other than run in place.

They will be fortunate to post a winning record, but the Cincinnati Reds should take a big step forward this year: 75-80 wins is a likely possibility. Gone are defensive liabilities Ken Griffey Jr and Adam Dunn, and their replacements, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, give the Reds at least as much production while playing better defense. The Reds should now have a decent defense in front of an average, consistent pitching staff. The young hitters should continue their progress, though they’ll continue to struggle with consistency.

The Cards see their undoing in a mediocre defense, thanks to weird position shifts to try and get the bats of Skip Schumacher and Rick Ankiel in the lineup, which leads to holes in the defense. Even then, the lineup isn’t much to crow about outside of superstar Albert Pujols and powerful Ryan Ludwick. This lineup is average overall. Dave Duncan’s patchwork pitching staff will do a decent job but there’s only so much they can do to prevent runs with a so-so defense. Below average run prevention with an average offense indicates 75 wins are on the horizon.

The Astros still don’t have much of an offense, as they’re playing speedy but punchless KazMatsui and Michael Bourn everyday. Hunter Pence has emerged as a leader but only brings so much to the table alongside Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. Miguel Tejada is fading and the arrival of Pudge Rodriguez immediately makes him one of their better power bats. That’s not good. The defense is solid, but the pitching is a mess. The reconstructed Mike Hampton, who has pitched a handful of innings over the last few years, immediately became their #3 starter. That’s all you need to know about the rotation: the bullpen has some solid front men but they can only undo so much damage. Still, they can do an okay job at preventing runs and can win 70-75 games, but that’s about it.

The Pirates have probably the worst offense in MLB, with no serious impact bat to speak of in the lineup (Adam LaRoche and Nate McLouth is as close as they get). Their pitching staff continues to develop in the rotation (watch Russ Ohlendorf) though they’re still some ways away, and the bullpen has glaring holes towards the back end. The Pirates will probably lose 100+ and have the top pick in the 2010 draft.