Dave Cameron's piece on retooling for 2011 offered some interesting food for thought.
Dave proposed a couple of wire-level pickups:
Chris Resop: Yeah, he would be a great piece to pick up and test drive, but with the Braves leading the NL East and definitely looking at a postseason return, plus two late 30's pitchers in their rotation (Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami) coming with a significant non-zero injury risk, along with a converted reliever (Kris Medlen) filling in for a currently injured young starter (Jair Jurrjens) who was already struggling before his DL trip, and their other fringe rotation options struggling at AAA (Jo-Jo Reyes, James Parr)... what if the Braves consider Resop a valuable piece of rotation insurance?
They wouldn't need Resop as a starter in October with a playoff-shortened rotation. But if one of the old men hits the DL during the regular season, if Jurrjens doesn't get back up to speed and/or if Medlen comes back to Earth and looks more like a reliever-quality arm (or gets hurt himself), they might need Resop's arm in the rotation, and his excellent work in AAA probably isn't lost on the Braves front office even if he's not on their 25 man roster.
Resop has a clause in his contract that says he's got to get called up by 6/15 this season or get released. But with Jesse Chavez struggling in the Braves pen, no assurances that Cristhian Martinez will be a useful reliever over the long term, a host of young option-able arms in the pen that could possibly unravel, and the elephant in the room of the two veteran starters (Lowe and Kawakami) struggling, I'm not convinced the Braves consider Resop as disposable as he'd need to be to make for an easy flier pickup.
Kila Ka’aihue and Alex Gordon: Gordon is admittedly an if-pickup in Cameron's scenario, but his focus is on Ka'aihue, who is admittedly a more do-able pickup. The question is whether the Royals would be keen on unloading him for a low price. They didn't mind unloading Dan Cortes and Derrick Saito from their system for Yuniesky Betancourt, but Cortes and Saito were young pitchers in a system full of them.
Ka'aihue, even rotting away in AAA, could be of use to the Royals down the road, and is only blocked because of the likes of Billy Butler and Jose Guillen. Guillen's most likely gone after this season, which could open up a spot at 1B or DH. Kansas City's not the brightest bulb in the box when it comes to talent assembly but they have to be mindful that Ka'aihue could help their team next year. It's going to take a more valuable piece than just a junk prospect or two to pry him away.
Both proposed ideas are predicated on the acquisition pieces being disposable assets to their respective teams, but a closer look indicates they may not be as disposable as it currently seems.
******
As for re-tooling the roster... there are 15 potential spots for an upgrade, but many of them are easy to fill.
Despite the M's struggles with the bullpen this season, a good bullpen is fairly easy to assemble and re-tool: Between failed starters and relievers with a hot fastball or a single fine out pitch, a lot of league-minimum guys offer potential to fill the spot. You do what most teams do: Go get a bunch of arms, put the best ones on the 25 man and stash the rest in AAA in case the audition winners don't cut it and/or guys get hurt. Closer is not as difficult a role to fill as many think: Incumbent David Aardsma was a waiver trade pickup that won an open audition for the role in 2009. If you think you need to replace him, an open audition among 4-5 qualified relievers can easily produce a guy that can get three outs in the 9th with a 1-3 run lead 30-40 times in a year.
The bench is always easy to assemble because the sort of parts you need to fill it (backup catcher, modular infielder, modular outfielder, pinch hit bats) typically only need to be a bit better than AAAA quality and thus the roles are cheap and easy to fill. Thus of the 15 given question marks, eight should not be terribly difficult to fill or at least address with a workable solution that doesn't significantly hurt the team.
As for the rotation, if we buy the notion that true #5 starters don't exist (and I can), then you only really need to fill one of the two open rotation slots with a genuinely good pitcher. It depends on how short you think Jason Vargas and Doug Fister fall of filling the #3 slot in the rotation, if an audition for the #5 role doesn't somehow produce a superior candidate.
Really, you don't need five strong starting pitchers... probably one or two good to great pitchers, one or two decent/average/useful starters and then an okay guy to round out the 5 slot with the understanding that the owner of this slot can and probably will fluctuate. The need to fill two spots is predicated on thinking of Vargas and Fister as back-end or replacement level arms... and that depends on your impression of their work this season. I don't consider either one anything resembling an ace, but both can be and have been mostly reliable starters (Fister's shoulder fatigue notwithstanding). You can focus on upgrading one rotation slot and then, like the bench and bullpen, assemble an audition of talent to fill the #5 slot while stashing alternatives in AAA Tacoma (if the minor league system hasn't produced potential alternatives by then).
We can agree the lineup needs to be upgraded. One or two additional lineup upgrades isn't an impossibility. From there, if supply and money make upgrading other spots infeasible, you can take fliers on guys or have the incumbents continue in those roles until you can upgrade. The easiest spots to upgrade on this roster are catcher, 1B and DH. These spots can probably get upgraded at an affordable cost or even filled by flier-type acquisitions. Shortstop and 3B aren't going to be as easy to address: Good players at either position don't come cheap. How you fill LF depends on how much you value hitting and defense. An incumbent could fill the role provided his shortcomings aren't in an area you highly value.
So while the team has a lot of potential upgrade spots, the situation isn't as dire as it seems at first glance. Even if many of the 2010 underperformers can be expected to continue to underperform, a lot of the potential openings are fairly easy to fill, meaning the M's should be able to focus their resources on filling the other needed roles.
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Net Runs Special, 4-17-2010: Ubaldo Jimenez's No Hitter (Colorado 4, Atlanta 0)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | Ubaldo Jimenez | 1.112 | 0.371 | 0.497 | 0.138 | 0.106 |
| COL | Miguel Olivo | -1.645 | -1.511 | 0.000 | 0.352 | -0.486 |
| COL | Todd Helton | 1.085 | 0.645 | 0.000 | 0.440 | 0.000 |
| COL | Clint Barmes | -0.498 | -0.504 | 0.000 | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| COL | Ian Stewart | 0.571 | 0.083 | 0.000 | 0.488 | 0.000 |
| COL | Troy Tulowitzki | -0.465 | -0.686 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.000 |
| COL | Carlos Gonzalez | 1.914 | 1.546 | 0.000 | 0.368 | 0.000 |
| COL | Dexter Fowler | 0.450 | -1.003 | 0.000 | 1.453 | 0.000 |
| COL | Brad Hawpe | 1.224 | 0.858 | 0.000 | 0.366 | 0.000 |
| COL | COL Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| COL | Jim Tracy | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Kenshin Kawakami | -0.295 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 0.000 | -0.459 |
| ATL | Brian McCann | -0.605 | -0.605 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| ATL | Troy Glaus | -0.388 | -0.533 | 0.000 | 0.145 | 0.000 |
| ATL | Martin Prado | 0.439 | 0.028 | 0.000 | 0.411 | 0.000 |
| ATL | Chipper Jones | 0.142 | -0.238 | 0.000 | 0.601 | -0.221 |
| ATL | Yunel Escobar | -2.394 | -0.846 | 0.000 | -1.655 | 0.107 |
| ATL | Melky Cabrera | 0.244 | -0.210 | 0.000 | 0.592 | -0.138 |
| ATL | Nate McLouth | -1.167 | -0.877 | 0.000 | -0.290 | 0.000 |
| ATL | Jason Heyward | 0.261 | -0.009 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.000 |
| ATL | ATL Luckbox | 0.159 | 0.159 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| ATL | Bobby Cox | -0.252 | -0.252 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| ATL | Brooks Conrad | -0.317 | -0.317 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| ATL | Jonny Venters | 0.617 | 0.000 | 0.541 | 0.076 | 0.000 |
| ATL | Eric Hinske | -0.170 | -0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| ATL | Jesse Chavez | 0.141 | 0.000 | 0.141 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Expected ERAs for today's pitching performances:
Ubaldo Jimenez: 3.79
Kenshin Kawakami: 3.97
Jonny Venters: 2.74
Jesse Chavez: 3.07
Player of the Game: Carlos Gonzalez (1.914 NRuns: 1.546 hitting, 0.368 fielding)
The Man Who Threw the No Hitter: Ubaldo Jimenez (1.112 NRuns: 0.371 hitting, 0.497 pitching, 0.138 fielding, 0.106 baserunning)
Goat: Yunel Escobar (-2.394 NRuns: -0.846 hitting, -1.655 fielding, 0.107 running)
How can a man throw a no-hitter and not be the Player of the Game? Simple: Walk six guys and give up a bunch of flyballs that outfielders pile up Net Runs by catching. Walks, line drives and flyballs negatively impact a pitcher's Net Runs, and you can cruise through a game with a sinking Net Run total if you've got good defense and luck on your side, and Ubaldo had a lot of both on his side today. Ubaldo does deserve credit for positively contributing in all four Net Runs categories (probably the first time I've seen that this season), and as you see he did have a fine game today no matter how you slice it. But he needed about 4 runs worth of defensive help to finish the job today, and to his defense's credit he got all of it he needed.
If nothing else, this is a fine illustration of how much luck and help a pitcher needs to throw a no hitter. Ubaldo struck out seven but walked six and had 11 flyouts to 8 groundouts. Everyone in the field for the Rockies contributed positively, though no one did more defensively than CF Dexter Fowler, who included a running catch of a dicey flyball to right center among his 1.453 fielding NRuns. If not for his atrocious day at the plate (-1.003 NRuns hitting) he'd have had a shot at Player of the Game.
Congratulations to Ubaldo Jimenez and the Colorado Rockies for threading the needle and completing one of the more unlikely no hitters in baseball history.
Friday, April 24, 2009
An educated guess about the NL East for 2009
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
The NL East is easily the best NL division, with three playoff contenders ahead of two also-rans.
The Phillies are well on their way to repeating. Despite his subpar defense in LF, Raul Ibañez adds an impact bat to the lineup that improves even on the departed Pat Burrell’s. This is the best lineup in the NL, with Ibañez, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shave Victorino, and plenty of productive help around them. The pitching staff has an okay rotation and a solid bullpen, but the real strength is the defense, easily the best in the majors in terms of run prevention. Jayson Werth by himself is one of the best outfielders in baseball. Utley and Rollins are one of baseball’s best double play tandems, Pedro Feliz is an excellent defensive 3B and Raul is the only real weak spot. The Phillies are what the Red Sox are in the AL: a seemingly unbeatable force that’s arguably the best at scoring and preventing runs.
No team should match the Rays’ surprise run (whether or not the saberheads were really surprised), but one team that should rebound strong from a down year is the Atlanta Braves. Picking up Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez quickly makes the Braves rotation the best in the NL, placing them ahead of the emerging Jair Jurjjens, strike throwing Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami and whichever MLB-ready rookie they elect to throw in the #5 spot. Their offense should also score a lot of runs, as the Braves have quietly assembled a consistently productive lineup built around veteran Chipper Jones and top-shelf catcher Brian McCann. Nearly all of these hitters can hit for some power, and much of the lineup consistently gets on base. The defense is merely average, but the Braves should quietly take the Wildcard in a 90-95 win season the old fashioned way: With solid pitching and solid hitting.
Sadly, the big money NY Mets just don’t have what it takes to crack the playoffs this year. Save for the huge JJ Putz trade and signing K-Rod this offseason, they didn’t really add any talent. The lineup, while one of the league’s better lineups, is essentially the same lineup they had last season. K-Rod and JJ vastly upgrade an okay bullpen to an okay bullpen fronted by two great relievers. The next best arm is one of those other players acquired in the JJ trade, Sean Green. Overall, the pitching is among the best in the NL thanks to the bullpen pickups, but the defense is simply decent, the bottom of the lineup gets a bit thin and the Mets simply don’t have enough top-shelf oomph to oust the Phillies or outlast the soon-to-emerge Braves.
The Marlins manage to stay somewhat competitive despite no budget, no fanbase and a sadistic owner, but this season they simply won’t be in the hunt. This is a 65-70 win team that, despite some young stars and a talented, developing rotation, are hampered by a weak bullpen, a subpar offense and a subpar defense. Cameron Maybin is still a year or two away from becoming a star in the Hanley Ramirez mold. Both he and Ramirez are subpar defenders who will get away with it due to their bats. New 3B Emilio Bonifacio is still a couple years away, if he will indeed meet his potential. Jeremy Hermida and Cody Ross hit for power but only give you so much in the lineup, while Jorge Cantu is the most reliable bat outside of Ramirez. Godspeed, new stadium.
The Washington Nationals will definitely hang with the Marlins for 4th in the NL East, but no one’s wrong about the Nationals being bad. They actually have an average lineup between Ryan Zimmerman, a healthy Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young, newly acquired Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes, with help from Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard. They’ll score some runs. The defense is also average, rather than bad as many may think. But the big problem with the Nationals is what has to be far and away the worst pitching staff in the majors. John Lannan fronts a rag-tag bunch of kids and tomato cans, many whom would struggle to hold down the middle of most AAA staffs. Daniel Cabrera is finished, rookie Jordan Zimmerman’s going to get initiated and Scott Olsen has a gopherball problem. The Nationals should allow the most runs in the NL, and it’ll be mainly because of poor pitching.
2. Atlanta Braves
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
The NL East is easily the best NL division, with three playoff contenders ahead of two also-rans.
The Phillies are well on their way to repeating. Despite his subpar defense in LF, Raul Ibañez adds an impact bat to the lineup that improves even on the departed Pat Burrell’s. This is the best lineup in the NL, with Ibañez, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shave Victorino, and plenty of productive help around them. The pitching staff has an okay rotation and a solid bullpen, but the real strength is the defense, easily the best in the majors in terms of run prevention. Jayson Werth by himself is one of the best outfielders in baseball. Utley and Rollins are one of baseball’s best double play tandems, Pedro Feliz is an excellent defensive 3B and Raul is the only real weak spot. The Phillies are what the Red Sox are in the AL: a seemingly unbeatable force that’s arguably the best at scoring and preventing runs.
No team should match the Rays’ surprise run (whether or not the saberheads were really surprised), but one team that should rebound strong from a down year is the Atlanta Braves. Picking up Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez quickly makes the Braves rotation the best in the NL, placing them ahead of the emerging Jair Jurjjens, strike throwing Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami and whichever MLB-ready rookie they elect to throw in the #5 spot. Their offense should also score a lot of runs, as the Braves have quietly assembled a consistently productive lineup built around veteran Chipper Jones and top-shelf catcher Brian McCann. Nearly all of these hitters can hit for some power, and much of the lineup consistently gets on base. The defense is merely average, but the Braves should quietly take the Wildcard in a 90-95 win season the old fashioned way: With solid pitching and solid hitting.
Sadly, the big money NY Mets just don’t have what it takes to crack the playoffs this year. Save for the huge JJ Putz trade and signing K-Rod this offseason, they didn’t really add any talent. The lineup, while one of the league’s better lineups, is essentially the same lineup they had last season. K-Rod and JJ vastly upgrade an okay bullpen to an okay bullpen fronted by two great relievers. The next best arm is one of those other players acquired in the JJ trade, Sean Green. Overall, the pitching is among the best in the NL thanks to the bullpen pickups, but the defense is simply decent, the bottom of the lineup gets a bit thin and the Mets simply don’t have enough top-shelf oomph to oust the Phillies or outlast the soon-to-emerge Braves.
The Marlins manage to stay somewhat competitive despite no budget, no fanbase and a sadistic owner, but this season they simply won’t be in the hunt. This is a 65-70 win team that, despite some young stars and a talented, developing rotation, are hampered by a weak bullpen, a subpar offense and a subpar defense. Cameron Maybin is still a year or two away from becoming a star in the Hanley Ramirez mold. Both he and Ramirez are subpar defenders who will get away with it due to their bats. New 3B Emilio Bonifacio is still a couple years away, if he will indeed meet his potential. Jeremy Hermida and Cody Ross hit for power but only give you so much in the lineup, while Jorge Cantu is the most reliable bat outside of Ramirez. Godspeed, new stadium.
The Washington Nationals will definitely hang with the Marlins for 4th in the NL East, but no one’s wrong about the Nationals being bad. They actually have an average lineup between Ryan Zimmerman, a healthy Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young, newly acquired Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes, with help from Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard. They’ll score some runs. The defense is also average, rather than bad as many may think. But the big problem with the Nationals is what has to be far and away the worst pitching staff in the majors. John Lannan fronts a rag-tag bunch of kids and tomato cans, many whom would struggle to hold down the middle of most AAA staffs. Daniel Cabrera is finished, rookie Jordan Zimmerman’s going to get initiated and Scott Olsen has a gopherball problem. The Nationals should allow the most runs in the NL, and it’ll be mainly because of poor pitching.
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