Net Runs Special, 4-17-2010: Ubaldo Jimenez's No Hitter (Colorado 4, Atlanta 0)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
COL	Ubaldo Jimenez	1.112	0.371	0.497	0.138	0.106
COL	Miguel Olivo	-1.645	-1.511	0.000	0.352	-0.486
COL	Todd Helton	1.085	0.645	0.000	0.440	0.000
COL	Clint Barmes	-0.498	-0.504	0.000	0.006	0.000
COL	Ian Stewart	0.571	0.083	0.000	0.488	0.000
COL	Troy Tulowitzki	-0.465	-0.686	0.000	0.221	0.000
COL	Carlos Gonzalez	1.914	1.546	0.000	0.368	0.000
COL	Dexter Fowler	0.450	-1.003	0.000	1.453	0.000
COL	Brad Hawpe	1.224	0.858	0.000	0.366	0.000
COL	COL Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
COL	Jim Tracy	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
ATL	Kenshin Kawakami	-0.295	0.000	0.164	0.000	-0.459
ATL	Brian McCann	-0.605	-0.605	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	Troy Glaus	-0.388	-0.533	0.000	0.145	0.000
ATL	Martin Prado	0.439	0.028	0.000	0.411	0.000
ATL	Chipper Jones	0.142	-0.238	0.000	0.601	-0.221
ATL	Yunel Escobar	-2.394	-0.846	0.000	-1.655	0.107
ATL	Melky Cabrera	0.244	-0.210	0.000	0.592	-0.138
ATL	Nate McLouth	-1.167	-0.877	0.000	-0.290	0.000
ATL	Jason Heyward	0.261	-0.009	0.000	0.270	0.000
ATL	ATL Luckbox	0.159	0.159	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	Bobby Cox	-0.252	-0.252	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	Brooks Conrad	-0.317	-0.317	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	Jonny Venters	0.617	0.000	0.541	0.076	0.000
ATL	Eric Hinske	-0.170	-0.170	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	Jesse Chavez	0.141	0.000	0.141	0.000	0.000

Expected ERAs for today's pitching performances:

Ubaldo Jimenez: 3.79

Kenshin Kawakami: 3.97
Jonny Venters: 2.74
Jesse Chavez: 3.07

Player of the Game: Carlos Gonzalez (1.914 NRuns: 1.546 hitting, 0.368 fielding)

The Man Who Threw the No Hitter: Ubaldo Jimenez (1.112 NRuns: 0.371 hitting, 0.497 pitching, 0.138 fielding, 0.106 baserunning)

Goat: Yunel Escobar (-2.394 NRuns: -0.846 hitting, -1.655 fielding, 0.107 running)

How can a man throw a no-hitter and not be the Player of the Game? Simple: Walk six guys and give up a bunch of flyballs that outfielders pile up Net Runs by catching. Walks, line drives and flyballs negatively impact a pitcher's Net Runs, and you can cruise through a game with a sinking Net Run total if you've got good defense and luck on your side, and Ubaldo had a lot of both on his side today. Ubaldo does deserve credit for positively contributing in all four Net Runs categories (probably the first time I've seen that this season), and as you see he did have a fine game today no matter how you slice it. But he needed about 4 runs worth of defensive help to finish the job today, and to his defense's credit he got all of it he needed.

If nothing else, this is a fine illustration of how much luck and help a pitcher needs to throw a no hitter. Ubaldo struck out seven but walked six and had 11 flyouts to 8 groundouts. Everyone in the field for the Rockies contributed positively, though no one did more defensively than CF Dexter Fowler, who included a running catch of a dicey flyball to right center among his 1.453 fielding NRuns. If not for his atrocious day at the plate (-1.003 NRuns hitting) he'd have had a shot at Player of the Game.

Congratulations to Ubaldo Jimenez and the Colorado Rockies for threading the needle and completing one of the more unlikely no hitters in baseball history.

Unseen differences in performance: The 2007 Rockies and Diamondbacks

Jeff Passan notes the divergent paths to 2009 between the two NL West 2007 playoff teams, the Rockies and Diamondbacks, and how the Rockies have returned to the spotlight while the Diamondbacks have fallen off the map. Passan laments one of the best young teams in baseball in the Diamondbacks sputtering while the Rockies returned to glory after an off 2008. A closer look shows that, while indeed one team has sputtered while another thrived, the difference between the two teams was evident even during their dual postseason runs.

In 2007, the Diamondbacks finished with the 3rd fewest runs scored and only the 5th best run prevention in the NL. At 712 runs scored and 732 allowed, their pythagorean record indicated they ought to have finished somewhere around 79-83, well off the pack... not 90-72 and 1st in the NL West. Brandon Webb fronted an unspectacular rotation: Livan Hernandez (4.93 ERA), Doug Davis (4.25), Micah Owings (4.30) and a spate of mediocre others alongside an injury-prone Randy Johnson (3.81, but only 10 starts and 56.2 IP), whose season was done after June.

In August the D-Backs took advantage of a stretch against weak opponents (Pittsburgh, Washington, Florida) to help ring up a 16-12 record despite getting outscored 141 to 127. In June they eked out a 14-13 record despite getting outscored 127 to 108, and went 8-7 in Interleague play despite getting outscored 80 to 71. With the help of such fortuitous stretches, they went 43-29 after the All Star Break to propel them to the NL West title.

How did they get so lucky? Like many teams that defy their pythag projected record, the D-Backs had one of the best bullpens in baseball that year, which helped them in close games. Their top five relievers had ERAs no worse than 3.27 (Tony Peña Jr.), and three of those five, including closer Jose Valverde, had sub-3 ERAs. Go figure they ran a solid 32-20 record in one run games. Arizona also led the NL with 51 saves (as Valverde rang up a career high 47) while only blowing 15 saves. Once the D-Backs had a lead, a deep bullpen did a good job of making sure they didn't (usually) give it up.

Now granted, if you crunch the numbers and consider the history of those pitchers you'll find the bullpen itself wasn't necessarily spectacular. The defense was a key reason they ruled it so hard: Arizona's defensive runs saved above average per Baseball Reference was +27.4, good for 4th in the NL. The key contributors were outfielders Eric Byrnes (+20.3) and Carlos Quentin (+11.5), and while CF Chris Young was the biggest liability (-13.3), having two effective corner outfielders on each side helped neutralize any shortcomings, plus defensive replacements Scott Hairston (+4.5) and Jeff Salazar (+4.5). Aside from Stephen Drew at SS (-7.2), no other D-Back cost his team more than 4 runs in the field. The bullpen had an added edge not just with the good corner outfielders, but Young could be replaced late in the game by a decent backup, turning the outfield into death for flyballs.

As for the lopsided run differential, here's an interesting breakdown:

Wins by 4 + runs: 30
Wins by 1-3 runs: 60
Loss by 1-3 runs: 36
Loss by 4 + runs: 36

While there's a fairly even ratio of routed wins to routed losses, with a few more rout losses, there are far more closer 1-3 run wins than losses. This is where the bullpen and defensive replacements came in: Once the D-Backs got a slim lead, they were able to hold it far more often than not. But they did not frequently dominate, nor did they frequently get dominated. Had they had more even fortune in those close games, their record might have been closer to that projected 79-83 mark and I probably am not discussing them.

Meanwhile, the Rockies finished one game back at 89-73, deadlocked with the San Diego Padres and making the playoffs only after winning a playoff game with help from a dubious sac fly run from Matt Holliday. Their Pythag record walks the walk (860 scored, 758 allowed, 91-72 expected), as did the Padres record (741 in and 666 out for a 89-74 expected record that exactly matched their final record). The Rockies were 2nd in the league in runs scored with obvious help from Coors Field, scoring 478 runs at home but a more average 382 on the road, while going 51-31 at home and a rather mediocre 39-42 on the road.

Colorado's run prevention was actually a tad above average (4.65 runs allowed; the NL average was 4.78). Their .701 defensive efficiency was 2nd best in the NL. Their defense saved an NL best 69.5 runs. They too had an effective bullpen, but even deeper, with six regulars finishing with ERAs below 4, even though none of their starting pitchers had an ERA below 4. Their lineup tied for the NL lead with a team .354 OBP. Their slugging and OPS, like their runs scored per game (5.28), were 2nd to Phialdelphia, which plays in one of baseball's hitter friendliest parks in Citizens Bank Park. This team was clearly, in most ways, better than the Diamondbacks.

The humidor did not turn Coors Field into a completely normal baseball climate

One misconception that popped up during the Mariners' weekend series with Colorado in Coors Field is that the Rockies' usage of a humidor completely negates the offense-happy conditions of Coors Field and that Coors Field is now a more typical playing environment.

While the humidor did cut down on the number of home runs, Coors still has an unusually large outfield, which gives outfielders more ground to cover and is an advantage for hitters, since chances are more likely a ball hit to the outfield will drop in.

Also, the Mariners broadcast team on FSN discussed this during the weekend's games, since they got to tour the humidor: The humidor doesn't weigh the balls down to counteract the high altitude. It simply maintains the temperature and humidity of normal conditions. Denver's climate dried out baseballs, which exacerbated the high altitude's effect on the ball's flight. That high altitude effect still remains to some degree.

Notice that the Rockies, as a team, still hit very well, and their pitchers still tend to sport higher ERAs.

An educated guess about the NL West for 2009

1. San Francisco Giants
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres

Like the Mariners in the AL West, I see the Giants winning a division title despite what I consider the weakest offense in the NL (yes, weaker than the Pirates). They don’t have any real impact bats, not even the kinda sorta impact bats I mentioned the Pirates having, and most of their lineup will struggle to consistently get on base. But they have a solid defense and one of the best rotations in MLB: Tim Lincecum is of course an ace. Many won’t think much of adding the aging Randy Johnson due to his age, but one injury plagued season doesn’t mean he can’t give the Giants 150 solid innings. Matt Cain is a strong starter, Zito is expensive but not horrible, and the emerging Jonathan Sanchez gives the Giants one of the best #5s in baseball. The bullpen’s simply okay but they have solid arms in front, an actual close for a change, and should eke out plenty of low scoring victories to the tune of 85-90 wins.

The Diamondbacks won’t be far behind and will give the Giants a serious run for their money. Their bane, however, is a poor defense and a young lineup loaded with talent but also inconsistency. Their pitching staff will also lean heavily on the ordinary Jon Garland and the inconsistent Doug Davis. Even if Brandon Webb and Dan Haren stay mostly healthy, they won’t have the defensive help the Giants will. 85 wins isn’t impossible: In fact, it’s likely. But their defense and youthful exuberance (read: impatience) at the plate will hold them back.

The Dodgers have the best lineup in the division and probably the most consistently productive pitching staff, but also have the division’s worst defense, thanks in ironically large part to one man: Manny Ramirez. His bat is the biggest and the best in the lineup, but his range and glove at LF are the slowest and the worst in the field. He doesn’t cost his team as many runs in the field as his bat brings to the lineup, but it costs the team enough to likely cost them a real shot at the division title. The Dodgers will play .500 ball, and don’t be surprised to see them finish 2009 with a losing record.

Even with the team’s humidor cancelling out much of the effect of Coors Field’s mile high altitude, the Colorado Rockies should still score plenty of runs thanks to a productive offense with reasonable power. However, they easily boast the worst pitching staff in the division, with a subpar rotation and an okay-at-best bullpen, as well as a subpar defense anchored by one of the worst RF’s in baseball: Brad Hawpe. Hawpe’s power bat boosts the lineup, but his “defense” can cost the Rockies 20-30 runs in the field alone. Garrett Atkins at 3B and a couple others have their issues as fielders, and the combination of subpar pitching and subpar fielding will sink Colorado. 90 losses sounds like a reasonable expectation.

The Padres lost Khalil Greene and didn’t really replace him. They’re expecting serious innings from Kevin Correia, Shawn Hill, the career Mexican Leaguer Walter Silva and maybe Cha Seung Baek. Heath Bell makes a solid replacement for Trevor Hoffman at closer, and Cla Meredith is a solid workhorse, but the rest of the pen is a shoddy contrast to the once-solid Padres pens of yesteryear. The defense is also, shall we say, a little weak. Still, cavernous PETCO Park should help the Padres prevent some runs, but the offense packs too little of a punch to expect anything other than 90-95 losses.