Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-25-2010 (Chicago White Sox 3, Seattle 2)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	-0.603	0.000	-0.603	0.000	0.000	5.32	20
SEA	Adam Moore	-0.665	0.124	0.000	-0.789	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.284	0.506	0.000	0.068	-0.858	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.799	-0.421	0.000	-0.378	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.017	-0.120	0.000	0.137	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	0.308	-0.696	0.000	1.004	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Eric Byrnes	1.367	-0.784	0.000	2.151	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.349	0.202	0.000	1.147	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.427	-0.479	0.000	0.906	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	0.080	0.080	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.477	-0.477	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Sean White	-0.503	0.000	-0.503	0.000	0.000	17.15	1
SEA	Brandon League	0.114	0.000	0.114	0.000	0.000	3.61	3

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
CWS	John Danks	-0.092	0.000	-0.343	0.251	0.000	4.92	24
CWS	AJ Pierzynski	-1.439	-1.439	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Paul Konerko	2.497	2.429	0.000	0.068	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Gordon Beckham	0.546	-0.078	0.000	0.624	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Mark Teahen	0.265	0.060	0.000	0.205	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Alexei Ramirez	0.325	-1.006	0.000	1.331	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Juan Pierre	0.767	-0.456	0.000	1.008	0.215	0.00	0
CWS	Alex Rios	-0.275	-0.095	0.000	-0.281	0.101	0.00	0
CWS	Carlos Quentin	-0.562	-0.986	0.000	0.424	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Andruw Jones	-0.594	-0.594	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	CWS Luckbox	0.473	0.473	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Ozzie Guillen	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Bobby Jenks	0.133	0.000	0.133	0.000	0.000	3.45	3
	US Cellular Field	2.375	0.000	0.000	-2.375	0.000	0.00	0

He blasted off on the bullpen again: Paul Konerko (2.497 NRuns: 2.429 hitting, 0.068 fielding)
Godspeed, Tyler Flowers: AJ Pierzynski (-1.439 NRuns, all hitting)

He can still run them down: Eric Byrnes (1.367 NRuns: -0.784 hitting, 2.151 fielding)
So can he, of course: Franklin Gutierrez (1.349 NRuns: 0.202 hitting, 1.147 fielding)

Please retire:

Mike Sweeney: 0.080 NRuns, all hitting
Ken Griffey Jr: -0.477 NRuns, all hitting

Lowest M's contribution today: Chone Figgins (-0.799 NRuns: -0.421 hitting, -0.378 fielding)

******

There isn't much of a goat today. Even Brandon League can't be blamed for allowing a go-ahead home run to Paul Konerko that had a stiff 22 mph wind to left behind it: Outfield flies become outs 77-80% of the time... at least when there's not a 20 mph wind behind them, and otherwise he was solid.

But rearing its ugly head was a lack of patience by Mariner hitters. Mike Sweeney was the most obvious offender with several bad swings and quick outs, but the team seemed to be patient until around the 5th inning, and then it seemed like everyone swung into 1st, 2nd and 3rd pitch outs. He's by no means one of the better hitters on this team, but kudos to Adam Moore for being one of the few who did take pitches throughout the game (except of course for his RBI single on a 2nd pitch changeup in his 2nd PA).

Perhaps the Mariners figured that being aggressive against strikeout lefty John Danks was better than getting to two strikes, putting the PA in Danks' control and then getting fooled into bad swings... but alas, to the contrary they made Danks' day easier by swinging into easy outs and keeping his pitch count low enough for him to work eight innings. He actually didn't pitch that great of a game (4.92 EXERA), but strong infield defense (2.228 NRuns) and a decent day by Juan Pierre in LF (1.008 NR) plus the Mariners' quick outs helped him breeze through eight frames. A better lineup probably chases Danks after 6 or 7 at most if he's dealing. They don't get impatient after five innings and buy him an extra couple of frames with quick outs.

At this point, there's a lot of calls to bench Ken Griffey Jr and unload Mike Sweeney, as the two aged DH bats are not helping the offense and obviously can't help the fielding. Griffey's not going anywhere as the team has built several promotional nights at Safeco Field around him and thus has an incentive to keep him on the roster... but they can still bench him and use him as just a pinch hitter or a spot DH. Sweeney, on the other hand, hasn't justified the roster spot handed to hit after a hot spring, as his hitting has been anything but hot in limited duty.

However, they're not the only reasons this team hasn't produced at the plate.

- I've mentioned the quick outs.
- I also mentioned the struggles against the changeup, and a couple more of Chone Figgins' outs today came on bad swings against the change.
- Matt Tuiasosopo, filling in for Jack Wilson at SS, hasn't been bad defensively, but his patient hitting value hasn't cashed out, as he's been probably the easiest out in the lineup this side of Junior over the weekend.
- Eric Byrnes has been absolutely empty at the plate save for a few walks, and if not for his defense he'd probably justify a powerflush from the roster.
- Ichiro's aggressive swings early in the count have always been a part of his game, and I'm not going to argue with his particular approach after 3000+ professional hits. But sometimes that approach is going to hurt him and he's going to have games like today where he mostly comes up empty after only 2-3 pitches. To a much smaller extent, this is also true of Jose Lopez, but to Jose's credit he did work a couple counts and has been a little more patient this season.

Really, if anyone should get blamed for this weekend's sweep, it should be the bats for repeatedly coming up empty against White Sox pitchers that could be beaten, especially in a bandbox with a consistently stiff wind out to LF. The starting pitching was terrific, the bullpen got snakebit by spotty control, flyballs and the wind, and the defense was mostly there. The bats, however, came up too empty too often, and got exposed as a bit too easy to beat. They, not the bullpen, are the big problem with the team right now.

Parts of the offense can be obviously improved (the two DH spots), but beyond that there's not a lot of obvious options for improvement. No one in Triple A Tacoma seems capable of stepping into LF or DH, or upgrading the team at catcher. And none of the available options can really do anything about the offensive black hole at SS (Jack Wilson's recent doubles aside), save for the unlikely event that Josh Wilson's really hot April in Tacoma becomes a hot May and is in some way for real.

This is the offense we're stuck with, and most knew that going in. The team was rolling the dice with pitching and defense, and hoping the offense would sneak enough runs across to win games. This team has only topped 4 runs five times in 19 games this season (the expected league average is 4.7 runs/game). Even when Milton Bradley's sore calf heals and he returns to the lineup, this team's still got a few rally-killing holes, some lineup-related and some approach-related, and until they're addressed those holes, scoring is going to be a problem and games are going to be close enough that bullpen cracks are going to continue to ignite losses.

Sure, the opposition can't win if they don't score. But neither can you.

A quick Net Runs look at Jake Peavy

As Dave Cameron noted, Jake Peavy isn't looking so good this season. None of his four starts have looked particularly pretty, and Net Runs confirms that, even granted Peavy's better looking 7.1 inning start in Cleveland, he's done a fairly poor job in all four starts.

	Opp	IP	NR	EXERA
04/07/10	CLE	5.0	-1.516	7.09
04/12/10	@TOR	5.2	-1.884	6.88
04/17/10	@CLE	7.1	-2.810	7.29
04/22/10	TBR	4.1	-1.564	7.57

The guy has been a walk machine (a bloated 13.6% of batters faced), and along with a lack of strikeouts (also 13.6%) and a 28.5% line drive rate as of today, it's clear Peavy's struggles aren't any product of bad luck, before you even delve into his velocity or pitch profile... which in turn offers plenty of evidence that something isn't right.

In the meantime, he's costing his team nearly 2 runs per start, and if he can't quickly adjust and resume getting guys out consistently, Peavy might need to look at a DL stint. The White Sox are struggling and need all the help they can get from a struggling pitching staff. Matt Thornton and John Danks can't do all the work ;P

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-24-2010 (Chicago White Sox 5, Seattle 4)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Doug Fister	-0.718	0.000	-0.718	0.000	0.000	5.31	24
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.546	-0.684	0.000	0.138	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	1.861	1.567	0.000	0.294	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.546	-0.188	0.000	0.734	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	1.851	0.760	0.000	0.990	0.101	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-0.115	-0.478	0.000	0.363	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Eric Byrnes	-2.126	-1.207	0.000	-0.919	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.126	0.281	0.000	0.845	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.158	-0.730	0.000	0.888	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.627	-0.627	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.282	0.282	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jack Wilson	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000	0.000	5.13	2

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
CWS	Freddy Garcia	2.193	0.000	2.056	0.137	0.000	2.11	21
CWS	AJ Pierzynski	-1.056	-0.955	0.000	-0.101	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Paul Konerko	-1.764	-0.123	0.000	-1.139	-0.502	0.00	0
CWS	Gordon Beckham	-0.459	-0.950	0.000	0.491	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Mark Teahen	0.105	0.105	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Alexei Ramirez	1.447	1.255	0.000	0.431	-0.239	0.00	0
CWS	Juan Pierre	-0.843	0.111	0.000	-0.497	-0.457	0.00	0
CWS	Alex Rios	2.535	2.024	0.000	0.649	-0.138	0.00	0
CWS	Andruw Jones	0.569	0.482	0.000	0.087	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Carlos Quentin	-0.422	-0.422	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	CWS Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Ozzie Guillen	-0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Jayson Nix	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CWS	Sergio Santos	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.56	3
CWS	Bobby Jenks	-0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000	0.000	5.53	3
	US Cellular Field	3.704	0.000	0.000	-3.704	0.000	0.00	0

Hey look! The Expected ERAs for today's performances are now included in the charts! They are of course under the label EXERA, and should be easy to find as they'll have a non-zero number in a new column on their right: PitOuts are the number of outs the team netted while a pitcher was on the hill, and is used to determine that pitcher's EXERA. If I haven't yet explained the formula in full (and yes I've got to go back and check), I will make sure to do so soon.

Player of the Game: U.S. Cellular Field (3.704 NRuns, all on bogus as hell wind-aided home runs SCREW THAT PLACE)

ChiSox Player of the Game: Alex Rios (2.535 NRuns: 2.024 hitting, 0.649 fielding, -0.138 running)

For a guy that's finished he sure pitched well: Freddy Garcia (2.193 NRuns: 2.056 pitching, 0.137 fielding)

Good thing this guy hit a HR because wow did he suck otherwise: Paul Konerko (-1.764 NRuns: -0.123 hitting, -1.139 fielding, -0.502 running)

Mariners Player of the Game: Casey Kotchman (1.861 NRuns: 1.567 hitting, 0.294 fielding)

Goat: Eric Byrnes (-2.126 NRuns: -1.207 hitting, -0.919 fielding)

******

- What do you get when your erratic flyball-happy closer takes the hill with a two run lead, an 18 mph wind out to left field and some good hitters due up? Why, absolute disaster, of course!

Aardsma didn't actually do all that worse or better in this walkoff loss than he usually does. He's always flyball prone. He's always walk prone. He's always throwing gas and striking people out. And with that every batter he faces seems like a roll of the dice. Most of the time since his 2009 arrival, he's succeeded. Sometimes, the flyballs and walks produce disaster.

Add in a stadium that would fit in well in the Cal League, and some good ChiSox hitters, and failure becomes distinctly possible. David Aardsma is still who he is, and who he is can close out his fair share of games. Two wind-aided flyballs over the LF fence later (though Rios did put a decent charge in his; that might have been able to leave many yards with no wind), I'm not any more or less concerned about him than I was before today. He hit 97 on the radar gun, and he was spotty with his control, film at 11.

- So after a few good games in the field, Eric Byrnes sure picked a bad time to go and have as bad a game as possible, as he was totally useless at the plate and also had a poor game in the field. With the team looking for spots to upgrade the roster, the last thing he wanted to do was look expendable, especially against an ordinary SP like....

- ... Freddy Garcia. For the second night in a row, the Mariners got owned by a pitcher with weak stuff who makes his living by nibbling at the edges of the zone. I didn't watch the game but decided to examine the pitch F/X and pitch by pitch data on MLB.com Gameday to try and get an idea as to why the lineup only got two hits in 7 innings off an otherwise hittable Freddy Garcia.

In what's becoming a recurring theme, the Mariners got eaten alive by the changeup. Several of Freddy's swinging strikes came on that pitch (he put awa Chone Figgins on strikes twice with the changeup). But to the M's credit, they took a lot of pitches... probably too many. They took a lot of called strikes, and let Freddy get to strike two uncontested quite a bit. Perhaps that was the idea, to try and get him to throw as many pitches per plate appearance as possible.

Many of the outs in play came on fastballs along the outside edge of the zone (though Junior's outs in play came mostly on the change), and the M's just could not take advantage of the jetstream, with only two balls (Franklin Gutierrez's HR and Jose Lopez's line drive RBI double, which BTW came on a 1st pitch slider) being hit to left field. Freddy got a lot of pop ups, and all the other flyballs were hit harmlessly to center. The lineup improved on yesterday's flailing failboat at the plate, and played it more patient with Freddy. The patience didn't pay off, and at the same time their struggles with hitting the changeup once again came into play.

Freddy's EXERA was around the 1's for most of this start and only reached the 2's towards the end. Casey Kotchman's RBI double (helped by a not-so-wise fan along the RF line) was the only serious damage by the M's off the bullpen.

- As for Doug Fister, who after yet another strong 8 inning start is definitely locked into the rotation for the foreseeable future... his outing was once again pedestrian per EXERA. Perhaps one item that could be improved with Net Runs over time is how line drives are counted against the pitcher. The methodology of assigning a value to each ball in play and handing that to the pitcher is fine, but not all line drives are perfectly equal, nor are all flyballs or groundballs. For example, Doug Fister allowed six line drives... but five of those came with the bases empty, and ultimately the ChiSox only scored two runs against him. Four of the six line drives came with one out and the other with two outs. Here's the composite run expectancy for US Cellular Field:

Situation	0 outs	1 out	2 outs
Empty	0.547	0.296	0.114
1xx	0.974	0.571	0.239
x2x	1.124	0.701	0.340
xx3	1.382	0.945	0.370
12x	1.601	1.013	0.477
1x3	1.816	1.228	0.502
x23	1.966	1.358	0.603
123	2.479	1.727	0.807

In US Cellular, I assign each line drive a value of 0.503 runs and give that to the pitcher. That's the average run expectancy added by all line drives in MLB, park adjusted to this horrifyingly hitter friendly South Side bandbox. But notice the run expectancy with the bases empty and one out, or two out. 0.296. 0.114. And notice the difference with a man on 1st and one out or two out. 0.571. 0.239. Not quite 0.503 big, is it? A double with one out and empty bases might be close to that value, but not with two outs.

The thing is that, to accurately assess the value by base and out would require an entire run expectancy chart for each batted ball type, and then conversions for every single situation, for every single park. And in the end, I'm not convinced I would have accurate, consistent values. It may be worth a shot down the line, but that's an example of how much tedious and lengthy work the slightest adjustment will require at this stage. The methodology that produced this method alone was a lengthy, tedious, weeks long process.

That is not to say I won't eventually work to do it, and see what happens. But this should illustrate why I stick with the current process even with the knowledge that there may be a more accurate way to assign value. As it stands, the current methodology is still fairly accurate and has done a consistent job of assigning overall value to a performance. And it does reward fielders in kind for catching a typically difficult to catch ball, even when a fielder happens to be in the right spot to catch it, or getting a ball back in quickly and preventing damaging extra bases.

To wit and to the contrary, when is a line drive allowed by a pitcher ever a good indicator, even if it's caught for an out? The batter timed and anticpated a pitch well enough to hit it hard on a line, a batted ball type that falls for a hit 70-75% of the time. That indicates the pitcher didn't fool the batter.

So anyway, after all that, Doug Fister allowed line drives on 25% of his balls in play, and that's not a good ratio... but he did only walk one, did strike out four and did get a lot of groundballs. The line drives are what lands his EXERA for the second consecutive 8 inning start despite an actual line that looks much better. His defense is that good (well, except for Eric Byrnes today, but still).

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-23-2010 (Chicago White Sox 7, Seattle 6)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-2.439	0.000	-2.439	0.000	0.000
SEA	Adam Moore	-0.652	-0.206	0.000	-0.446	0.000
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-1.117	-1.117	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.956	1.317	0.000	0.639	0.000
SEA	Jose Lopez	4.813	2.071	0.000	2.742	0.000
SEA	Jack Wilson	0.498	0.427	0.000	0.071	0.000
SEA	Eric Byrnes	0.424	0.256	0.000	-0.083	0.251
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.850	-0.333	0.000	1.183	0.000
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.331	0.331	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.841	-0.841	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.150	0.150	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.137	0.000	-0.137	0.000	0.000
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-1.488	-1.229	0.000	-0.259	0.000
SEA	Kanekoa Texeira	0.454	0.000	0.454	0.000	0.000
SEA	Sean White	-0.816	0.000	-0.892	0.076	0.000
SEA	Brandon League	0.158	0.000	-0.024	0.182	0.000
SEA	Mark Lowe	0.068	0.000	0.068	0.000	0.000

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
CWS	Gavin Floyd	0.560	0.000	0.934	-0.374	0.000
CWS	Donny Lucy	-0.290	-0.290	0.000	-0.101	0.101
CWS	Paul Konerko	1.893	1.756	0.000	0.137	0.000
CWS	Gordon Beckham	0.656	-0.342	0.000	0.998	0.000
CWS	Jayson Nix	-1.158	-0.152	0.000	-1.006	0.000
CWS	Alexei Ramirez	0.565	0.172	0.000	0.393	0.000
CWS	Andruw Jones	2.702	1.485	0.000	1.760	-0.543
CWS	Alex Rios	-0.604	-0.102	0.000	0.000	-0.502
CWS	Carlos Quentin	-1.749	-0.036	0.000	-1.713	0.000
CWS	Juan Pierre	-0.514	-0.729	0.000	0.000	0.215
CWS	CWS Luckbox	1.272	1.272	0.000	0.000	0.000
CWS	Ozzie Guillen	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
CWS	Mark Teahen	-0.114	-0.114	0.000	0.000	0.000
CWS	JJ Putz	-0.560	0.000	-0.560	0.000	0.000
CWS	Matt Thornton	1.208	0.000	1.208	0.000	0.000

Expected ERAs based on today's performances:

Ryan Rowland-Smith: 8.38
Kanekoa Texeira: 0.00
Sean White: 15.73
Brandon League: 4.71
Mark Lowe: 3.71

Gavin Floyd: 3.33
JJ Putz: 18.58
Matt Thornton: 0.24

Player of the Game: Jose Lopez (4.813 NRuns: 2.071 hitting, 2.742 fielding)

Hail the Conquering Hero: Andruw Jones (2.702 NRuns: 1.485 hitting, 1.760 fielding, -0.543 running)

CWS Luckbox: 1.272 NRuns

(Luckbox > 1.000 ---------> Other team screwed up a lot)

His fielding wasn't the problem: Matt Tuiasosopo (-1.488 NRuns: -1.229 hitting, -0.259 fielding)

Goat: Ryan Rowland-Smith (-2.439 NRuns, all pitching)

Remember when we were glad we lost him cause he sucked?: Matt Thornton (1.208 NRuns pitching)

Remember when we lamented losing him cause he was good?: JJ Putz (-0.560 NRuns in 0.2 IP = 7.56 R/G)

US Cellular Field: 6.079 NRuns

******

Two items stand out on everyone's radar, as well they should. And apologies but I'm going to digress from the numbers above in discussing them.

1. Sean White pitching the 7th. Lou Piniella had Bobby Ayala. Mike Hargrove had Julio Mateo. John McLaren had Rick White. And it appears Don Wakamatsu has Sean White. It seems that, save for Bob Melvin, who simply had bad career timing, every Mariners manager in recent memory has a sentimental bullpen favorite that gains a lot more trust than he deserves, and inevitably that overrated reliever gets thrust into key situation after key situation (often when better options are available) only to go grease-fire on those high leverage situations and often blow the game.

Last year, Sean White was a functional two pitch reliever with a swaying sinker and a hot fastball. But this year his stuff has cooled off back to his crappy 2007 form, when the Mariners took a shot with him in the Rule 5 draft and he pitched so poorly even in mop up and long relief that the team DL'd him at the first wince of arm pain and never took him off until they had to.

In 2007, he only hit the zone 40-41% of the time, with a 90-91 mph heater and pedestrian secondary stuff. After toiling in the minors during 2008, he came out in 2009 with a few extra ticks on his heater (now 93-94) and a sinker with some bite, plus better control, hitting the zone nearly 48% of the time. He posted stronger numbers across the board in 2009 and gave Wak every indication that he had emerged as a strong groundball reliever.

But now in 2010 his heater has cooled back off to 91-92, his once promising sinker has lost its bite... when it actually does sink instead of hanging in the zone, and speaking of the latter he's once again only hitting the zone 41% of the time. But now hitters are making more contact on his pitches than they even did back in his crappy 2007. Go figure that the ChiSox ripped two line drives off him in the 7th, setting up Alex Rios' game tying double.

Wak wants to think that the 2010 Sean White is still the 2009 Sean White. But he's not. He's basically the 2007 Sean White, and I have just as little an idea as to why as you do. But I do know for certain that Wak's hurting the team as long as he doesn't realize that the Sean White he has now is barely a replacement level reliever, and should be 5th or 6th in line when it comes to his high leverage options... not 1st or 2nd in line... at least until Sean can get himself back to that 2009 form... if he can at all.

I humbly suggest looking at DL'ing Sean White. He's lost velocity and control. He was hurt before this spring. Maybe something's still wrong. And you have a golden chance to do so without hurting the team, with Cliff Lee coming back and needing to unload an arm to open up space for him anyway. Yes, Jesus Colome sucks too and should probably go as well. Send them both away then: You've got several guys missing bats in Tacoma, and one of them could serve as your back-end mop-up guy if you must carry 12 pitchers.

But if he's okay, Wak needs to be realistic instead of optimistic with Sean White, and use him in lower leverage situations until he shows real signs that he's one of the bullpen's best arms for tough situations.

2. Jack Wilson bangs up his thumb and suddenly the team's only option for SS was... Matt Tuiasosopo, a barely passable defensive infielder at 2B and 3B who struggles at shortstop (though granted he wasn't worse than so-so at the 6 today). Now, obviously going forward the team ought to look at calling up Jack Hannahan or Josh Wilson (who is currently Tacoma's hottest hitter) to come up and hold down shortstop until Jack's thumb heals. Wilson's hot AAA bat may be worth a test drive, but Hannahan might be a better option as he's slated to return to the team from an injury anyway.

But IMO Wak missed another opportunity when he inserted Tui at SS. Whether or not US Cellular Field is a bandbox, every run counts for these Mariners and they need to field the best defense possible. Once Jack was hurt and had to come out, Wak could have been a bit more creative than just putting Tui in Jack's position.

Chone Figgins at 2B is probably the best infielder in the lineup at this point. While his limited career experience at SS with the Angels wasn't terrific (about -0.5 UZR in 150.2 career innings), the guy at least had considerable experience at the spot and would have been better suited to fill in at SS than Tui, who could have slid over to the more comfortable 2B in Chone's place. Since the ChiSox had a lineup of eight right handed pull hitters, the M's were better off having their better defenders on the left side of the infield. Jose Lopez, who has been great at 3B so far, was fine there, and while not perfect, Chone would have been a more suitable fill-in for the SS position. Sure, he's not used to playing there and would be a bit rusty not having played there since 2006, but he should have enough cross-applicable fielding skill and enough sense memory to do a functional job for six frames... at least better than Tui.

******


Now, back to the numbers. I'd be remiss not to mention Jose Lopez posting arguably the best single game performance by a Mariner this season, not only hitting that grand slam but making several key plays in the field that saved nearly 3 runs in their own right. While Jose's power bat hasn't shown up until today, he's been a beast in the field for the M's all season long. It's like he's become a different player defensively, and not just because he switched positions. He's more aggressive to the ball and hustling now, without rushing into too many mistakes.

And I'd be remiss not to mention Ryan Rowland-Smith doing his part to facilitate a ChiSox win by pitching like absolute crap. Blah blah bandbox, blah blah flyball pitcher. He gave up enough line drives that even if he didn't get unlucky with a couple flyballs and even if they were playing this game in Safeco, he would have looked awful almost no matter what. He's got to mix it up and locate his stuff down in the zone: If he's going to miss with his pitches (and his swervy pitches miss a LOT), at least miss low.

The broken play that injured Jack's thumb cost the M's 0.678 runs, a huge break that eventually led to Paul Konerko's RBI single (off, go figure, a line drive against RRS). Tui later screwed up a play that added another 0.457 runs to the ChiSox's chances. While RRS and Sean White's poor pitching had a big hand in the loss, the M's also gave away over a run to the ChiSox through miscues.

An updated look at the AL Central

Minnesota - The Twins didn't realize it, but their bullpen overhaul actually made them worse. Sure, they had to replace the injured Jesse Crain, but Jose Mijares and Juan Morillo (though the Twins went out of their way to get him on the roster, there's a reason the pitching-starved Rockies dumped him last season) have such bad control problems that they may actually pitch BELOW replacement level. R.A. Dickey is fine as a replacement arm, but swapping out Brian Duensing and punting Phillip Humber while relying on three replacement arms is not. The Twins now have a serious shot at 90 losses.

Kansas City - Alex Gordon's injury leads to Mitch Maier's promotion (he's not a bad bench bat) and more time for Alberto Callaspo. The team should see surprisingly little dropoff, as Gordon's defense was simply okay, his hitting was decent but not great, Maier adds some power off the bench and Callaspo isn't terrible at the plate. Brian Bannister supplants Horacio Ramirez in the rotation, and gives a bit above replacement level effort at best. For some reason, I expected Ramirez to be halfway decent. Huh. Anyway, the Royals' chances of .500 baseball go down from these developments, and 85 losses now seems a more solid prognosis.

Detroit - Backup catcher Matt treanor got hurt, and now something called Dane Sardinha backs up Gerald Laird, downgrading the offense just a bit (Treanor is a least a bit above replacement level). Losing Marcus Thames however (ribs) is a huge blow, even if Ryan Raburn's power and better ability to get on base makes him a solid replacement. Thames had other-worldly power, and even the best backup power bat is a big downgrade. Offsetting some of that damage is the return to Joel Zumaya to the bullpen, instantly bolstering an average unit. Also bolstering Detroit's chances is the increased likelihood that the halfway-decent Zach Miner will stick in the rotation, as Rick Porcello hasn't impressed as Jeremy Bonderman's fill-in. As it stands, 85-90 wins and the AL Central title is still an easy possibility.

Cleveland - Scott Lewis will spend a week or two on the DL with a forearm strain, meaning replacement innings from Aaron Laffey. The Indians turned over their bullpen, sending down Zach Jackson and bringing in the likes of Vinnie Chulk, Jensen Lewis and Tony Sipp, slightly above replacement level downgrades. This reduces the likelihood of significant innings from Zach Jackson, as the team likely won't give him a chance to start until later this season, if at all before September. This is the opening the Tigers may need to sneak off with the Central, as when we started the two teams were neck and neck. But this drops the Indians to a solid 85 win team.

Chicago White Sox - The team sent away struggling Mike MacDougal and decided to test drive replacement level Lance Broadway. He's a downgrade but this is already a bleh pitching staff hampered by a bad defense, so not much loss there. Jerry Owens is back as DeWayne Wise hits the DL with a separated shoulder, but it looks like an improved Brian Anderson will soak up most of the starts at CF. This team still sucks, on the 95-100 loss level.

An educated guess about the AL Central for 2009

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox

This will actually be a close race between the Indians and Tigers in a so-so division, and the eventual champ will probably finish in the 85-90 win range. The Indians have slowly rebuilt with a solid young core of youngsters and productive low-cost vets. They easily have the best pitching staff in the division (though still a step below the millionaire Yankee and Red Sox rotations) and a decent defense. Their offense in sum won’t wow you but they have a bevy of productive bats.

The Tigers have gradually reloaded the lineup and while they never will score a ton of runs playing in cavernous Comerica Park, they pack enough power to provide a great defense and an average pitching staff with sufficient support. The Tigers also showed they were willing to unload veteran dead weight, such as Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers and Gary Sheffield, to play younger, more productive players. While they have a better defense than Cleveland, the Indians have a better pitching staff, and the two teams are nearly dead even overall. It would not surprise me to see the AL Central come down to a one game playoff between these two.

One surprise improvement this season will come from the Kansas City Royals, who, while making a series of unproductive pickups over the last couple years (Kyle Davies, Jose Guillen, Willie Bloomquist, Coco Crisp), made their biggest defensive improvement without adding anybody: they moved David DeJesus, a solid CF, to LF, where he becomes one of the position’s top defenders. The emergence of excellent defender Mike Aviles at SS now gives the Royals one of the AL’s best defenses. They won’t score enough runs to compete and their pitching staff still has a few tomato cans, but they can easily play .500 ball.

Fans are high on the Twins, but don’t count on them winning more than 80 games this season, if they can even manage 70-75. Their defense gets help from speedsters like Denard Span and Carlos Gomez, but they still have a few holes, their offense lacks consistency and pop (even with Joe Mauer) and they did little to improve their nondescript, mediocre pitching staff.

The White Sox offense will do a decent job despite some lineup holes (like the revolving door in CF, the fading AJ Pierzynski at catcher and the developing Chris Getz at 2B). But what seals their doom is a weak pitching staff coupled with a terrible defense. Jermaine Dye is a horrible RF, Alexei Ramirez is not a good fielder wherever he plays, none of their fielders are standout defenders and bench players like Wilson Betemit don’t make good defensive replacements. Add in home run friendly U.S. Cellular Field, and the ChiSox should lead the league in runs… allowed. This team likely reaches 95 losses, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen will likely lose their jobs, and many of the incumbent vets (Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle) should get the old heave-ho via trade or free agency during or after 2009.