1. Since drafting Joe Mauer 1st overall in 2001 the Minnesota Twins have had 16 1st round selections thanks to Type A and B compensation, and have whiffed on all but two of those: Only Denard Span (2002), Matt Garza (2005) and Glen Perkins (2004) have seen serious time in the Majors. Perkins turned out rather ordinary while Garza didn't hit his stride until he was traded to Tampa Bay and only now is Span paying dividends after a ton of time in the minors.
Even the woebegone Pirates, notorious for whiffing on high picks, managed to get six of their picks in the 2000's to the bigs, and once Brad Lincoln gets an expected callup sometime this year that will make it seven.
2. In back to back years, the Yankees drafted players in the 2nd round who didn't sign and went on to prominent football careers. In 1981 they burned their 2nd rounder on an OF named John Elway, and in 1982 they spent a 2nd round pick on a high school SS named Bo Jackson. The latter of course comes with an obvious caveat: Bo Jackson would become a two sport star at Auburn University and eventually get drafted in the 4th round of the 1986 draft by the Kansas City Royals, going on to a famous dual career with the Royals and football's Los Angeles Raiders.
3. You'd be hard pressed to find a team that drafted more MLB value in the 3rd round than the Texas Rangers, but sadly most of that value paid off for other teams.
Dean Palmer (1986) would go on to a solid career with the Detroit Tigers. Scott Podsednik (1994) would eventually break in with the Mariners, see his first regular action with the Brewers and go on to win a World Series with the White Sox. Ryan Dempster (1995) broke in with the Marlins and has since gone on to a productive career with the Cubs. And their biggest 3rd round prize, Barry Zito (1998), did most of his damage as a star for the rival Oakland Athletics.
The only 3rd rounder the Rangers picked who became a solid player under their watch? Darren Oliver (1988) became a productive pitcher for them during the 1990's, and at age 39 is coincidentally with them today as their top lefthanded reliever.
4. The 4th round is where the percentage of eventual MLBers really drops. But the Angels had the most prolific stretch of 4th rounders prior to 1996, producing 16 players that would eventually reach the bigs out of 30 4th round selections. Key regulars from this stretch included catcher Brian Harper, pitchers Mike Witt and Kirk McCaskill, and LF Garret Anderson. But since 1995, only one of their 4th round picks has reached the bigs, and the one that did got away: Brian Matusz passed on the Angels offer, went to college and eventually got drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in 2008.
Prolifically barren histories include the aforementioned Pirates, who of their 45 selections only produced 8 players who eventually saw MLB time, and of those eight only Jeff Keppinger (2001), Wes Chamberlain (1987) and pitcher Stew Cliburn (1977) would become MLB regulars for any real length of time. The Brewers only produced 7 major leaguers from 43 picks, and none of those picks produced more than 0.5 WAR over their careers. Granted, one of those MLBers was the late Josh Hancock, who died in a car wreck very early in his career with the Cardinals, and the jury's out on 2005 pick Mat Gamel.
The greatest 4th round pick of all time had to come from the Oakland A's in 1976, when they burned the 96th overall pick on a local outfielder from Technical HS named Rickey Henderson.
The Dodgers had the most interesting stretch of 4th rounders. After drafting eventual catcher Steve Yeager in 1967, the Dodgers had 19 consecutive 4th round picks between 1970-1989 that never played a game in the big leagues. Following that, 9 of their next 13 4th round selections would go on to play in the Majors, though none ever became a productive regular. Since 2003 none of their 4th rounders have reached the Majors.
Showing posts with label Minnesota Twins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Minnesota Twins. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Friday, June 4, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-3-2010 (Seattle 4, Minnesota 1)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Carl Pavano | 0.102 | 0.000 | 0.367 | -0.265 | 0.000 | 3.78 | 21 |
| MIN | Joe Mauer | -1.207 | -0.425 | 0.000 | -0.782 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Justin Morneau | 0.290 | 0.290 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Matt Tolbert | -0.464 | -0.826 | 0.000 | 0.362 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Danny Valencia | -0.469 | -0.267 | 0.000 | -0.202 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Nick Punto | -0.408 | -0.553 | 0.000 | 0.145 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Delmon Young | 0.084 | -0.603 | 0.000 | 0.904 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Denard Span | 1.300 | -0.228 | 0.000 | 1.528 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Jason Kubel | -0.955 | -0.359 | 0.000 | -0.596 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Jim Thome | -0.574 | -0.574 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Jesse Crain | 0.355 | 0.000 | 0.355 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.25 | 3 |
| MIN | MIN Luckbox | 0.470 | 0.217 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Ron Gardenhire | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Felix Hernandez | 0.284 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.92 | 24 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | -0.808 | -0.374 | 0.000 | -0.217 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | -0.858 | -0.722 | 0.000 | -0.136 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -0.757 | -0.979 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | 1.451 | 1.945 | 0.000 | -0.494 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 1.013 | 0.146 | 0.000 | 0.760 | 0.107 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | 1.606 | 0.778 | 0.000 | 1.023 | -0.195 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 0.080 | -0.478 | 0.000 | 0.558 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 2.135 | 0.312 | 0.000 | 1.407 | 0.416 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | -0.505 | -0.505 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | David Aardsma | 0.138 | 0.000 | 0.138 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.06 | 3 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 2.029 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.029 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Ichiro (2.135 NRuns: 0.312 hitting, 1.407 fielding, 0.416 running)
Mariners with more than 1.000 NRuns: 4 (Ichiro, Saunders, Lopez, Josh Wilson)
Mariners defense: 3.123 NRuns
Goat: Joe Mauer (-1.207 NRuns: -0.425 hitting, -0.782 fielding)
******
The only reason Felix Hernandez didn't have a great Net Runs today were his 1st and 3rd innings. The one run 1st came about through two line drives, and he led off the 3rd with a walk before allowing a line drive (that thankfully was caught by Ichiro). The rest of his day was excellent, especially those four strikeouts in the 8th inning. Thanks to Rob Johnson for enabling that by failing for block a strike three curveball in the dirt.
No further comment.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-2-2010 (Seattle 2, Minnesota 1, 10 innings)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Kevin Slowey | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.437 | 0.000 | 4.21 | 21 |
| MIN | Joe Mauer | 0.009 | 0.415 | 0.000 | -0.406 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Justin Morneau | 0.294 | 0.294 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Matt Tolbert | -1.971 | -0.240 | 0.000 | -1.297 | -0.434 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Nick Punto | -0.705 | -0.288 | 0.000 | -0.417 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | JJ Hardy | 0.926 | -0.743 | 0.000 | 1.669 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Delmon Young | 0.336 | -0.862 | 0.000 | 1.198 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Denard Span | -0.205 | -0.722 | 0.000 | 0.517 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Michael Cuddyer | 0.886 | -0.034 | 0.000 | 0.920 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Jason Kubel | -1.497 | -1.497 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Jim Thome | -0.098 | -0.098 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Brendan Harris | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Jesse Crain | -0.252 | 0.000 | -0.252 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.32 | 3 |
| MIN | Matt Guerrier | 0.222 | 0.000 | 0.077 | 0.145 | 0.000 | 3.83 | 5 |
| MIN | Jose Mijares | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | MIN Luckbox | 0.159 | 0.159 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Ron Gardenhire | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Cliff Lee | 0.518 | 0.000 | 0.349 | 0.169 | 0.000 | 3.85 | 24 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | -0.417 | -0.692 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | -0.085 | -0.008 | 0.000 | 0.757 | -0.834 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | 0.181 | -0.386 | 0.000 | 0.567 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -0.407 | -0.194 | 0.000 | -0.213 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 0.534 | -0.408 | 0.000 | 0.942 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | 2.288 | 0.498 | 0.000 | 1.384 | 0.406 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 1.316 | -0.051 | 0.000 | 1.367 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | -0.193 | -0.346 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | -0.938 | -0.938 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ryan Langerhans | 0.672 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.672 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Eliezer Alfonzo | -0.315 | -0.315 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | David Aardsma | -0.886 | 0.000 | -0.886 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 11.61 | 3 |
| SEA | Brandon League | 0.138 | 0.000 | 0.138 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.06 | 3 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 0.952 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.952 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
How Net Runs works
Player of the Game: Milton Bradley (2.288 NRuns: 0.498 hitting, 1.384 fielding, 0.406 running)
Mariners defense: 5.401 NRuns
Positive Mariners hitting contributions other than Bradley: 0
Mariners hitting: -2.840 NRuns
Goat: Matt Tolbert (-1.971 NRuns: -0.240 hitting, -1.297 fielding, -0.434 running)
******
On the heels of Ken Griffey Jr's sudden retirement (and that's a subject for another time), the M's gave a spirited but sputtering effort at the plate, squeezing home both of their runs on small ballish plays. Milton Bradley had a great game and his two steals proved instrumental in scoring the first run, while Ichiro's flukish single led to a run thanks to Ryan Langerhans picking a good time to get aggressive, with Twins 2B Matt Tolbert floating an ill-fated toss to short for the force out on Wilson. Once it failed and Langerhans was well on his way home, JJ Hardy had no chance to get him.
Both teams got decent pitching. Cliff Lee didn't have his best game (3.85 EXERA) but the M's defense saved over five runs in a massive performance today. Kevin Slowey had an average day and the M's just couldn't score any runs off of him. They typically need to draw walks to succeed and it's hard to draw walks off a pitcher who never issues them like Slowey.
That is all. very busy day today.
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-1-2010 (Seattle 7, Minnesota 1)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Nick Blackburn | -1.450 | 0.000 | -1.450 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.51 | 11 |
| MIN | Joe Mauer | -0.386 | -0.002 | 0.000 | -0.384 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Justin Morneau | -0.316 | -0.223 | 0.000 | 0.124 | -0.217 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Nick Punto | -0.695 | 0.011 | 0.000 | -0.706 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Brendan Harris | -1.484 | -0.829 | 0.000 | -0.655 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | JJ Hardy | 0.100 | 0.346 | 0.000 | -0.246 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Delmon Young | 0.961 | -0.457 | 0.000 | 1.281 | 0.137 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Denard Span | -1.023 | -1.078 | 0.000 | 0.055 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Michael Cuddyer | -1.194 | -0.805 | 0.000 | -0.389 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Jason Kubel | -0.428 | -0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Alex Burnett | 1.090 | 0.000 | 1.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.32 | 7 |
| MIN | Ron Mahay | -0.311 | 0.000 | -0.311 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.81 | 3 |
| MIN | Brian Duensing | 0.166 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.83 | 3 |
| MIN | MIN Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Ron Gardenhire | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Jason Vargas | -1.399 | 0.000 | -2.303 | 0.904 | 0.000 | 6.96 | 21 |
| SEA | Eliezer Alfonzo | 0.015 | 0.152 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | 1.976 | 0.426 | 0.000 | 1.550 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | 2.456 | 1.828 | 0.000 | 0.491 | 0.137 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | 2.036 | 2.031 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 0.535 | -0.596 | 0.000 | 1.131 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | 0.241 | -1.002 | 0.000 | 1.243 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | -0.177 | -0.463 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 1.921 | 1.087 | 0.000 | 0.834 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | -0.887 | -0.053 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.834 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Shawn Kelley | 0.355 | 0.000 | 0.355 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.25 | 3 |
| SEA | Garrett Olson | -0.328 | 0.000 | -0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.95 | 3 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.247 | 0.247 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 2.021 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.021 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
How Net Runs works
Player of the Game: Chone Figgins (2.456 NRuns: 1.828 hitting, 0.491 fielding, 0.137 running)
Also: Jose Lopez (2.036 NRuns: 2.031 hitting, 0.005 fielding)
Positive Mariner contributions: 8
Negative Mariner contributions: 4
Mariners hitting: 3.410 NRuns
Mariners defense: 6.307 NRuns
Mariners pitching: -2.276 NRuns
Positive Twins contributions: 4
Negative Twins contributions: 9
Twins with less than -1.000 NRuns: 4 (Nick Blackburn, Brendan Harris, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer)
Starting pitchers for both teams: -3.753 NRuns
Goat: Brendan Harris (-1.484 NRuns: -0.829 hitting, -0.655 fielding)
Almost goat: Nick Blackburn (-1.450 pitching NRuns... 7.51 EXERA)
******
It's late so this will be brief.
A rare banner day at the plate for the M's overshadowed the defense masking a bad game by Jason Vargas. Vargas got away with a LOT of line drives and walks today in stringing together seven strong innings. The 1st inning was bad, the 2nd... mehhhhhh, the 3rd was bad, the 4th was good, the 5th was bad (and nice job snaring that comebacker, Jason), the 6th wasn't too hot and the 7th to his credit was good. Many point to Doug Fister being all smoke and mirrors, but really of the upstart SPs, Jason Vargas has been the one tiptoeing through line drives and flyballs thanks to good outcomes. He has had decent games per EXERA, but between he and Fister, Vargas is the more likely to regress over time. Thankfully, his defense was terrific and Nick Blackburn was even worse than he was.
The defense deserves credit for an exceptional, almost flawless game. Save for Delmon Young swiping a base off Eliezer Alfonzo, everyone for the M's positively contributed in the field. Casey Kotchman had a great game at 1B, Josh Wilson deserves credit in light of recent struggles for a great game at SS, and Michael Saunders undid a bad day at the plate with a good day in LF.
Chone Figgins really needed a good game at the plate like he had today, as did Jose Lopez. To a lesser extent, Casey Kotchman really needed a big hit to fall for him as well and he got it late.
Good job Mariners. Another 73 games like this before October 3 and maybe you'll make the playoffs.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-31-2010 (Minnesota 5, Seattle 4)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Francisco Liriano | 0.616 | 0.000 | 0.616 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.36 | 18 |
| MIN | Joe Mauer | -0.709 | -0.392 | 0.000 | -0.317 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Justin Morneau | 1.552 | 1.172 | 0.000 | 0.439 | -0.059 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Michael Cuddyer | 0.296 | 1.191 | 0.000 | -0.895 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Nick Punto | -0.271 | -0.520 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | JJ Hardy | -1.890 | -0.897 | 0.000 | -0.559 | -0.434 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Delmon Young | 2.039 | 1.457 | 0.000 | 0.582 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Denard Span | -0.090 | -0.297 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Jason Kubel | -0.441 | -0.044 | 0.000 | -0.397 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Jim Thome | -0.722 | -0.288 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.434 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Alexi Casilla | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Brendan Harris | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Jesse Crain | 0.424 | 0.000 | 0.424 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.68 | 3 |
| MIN | Matt Guerrier | 0.143 | 0.000 | 0.143 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.02 | 3 |
| MIN | Jon Rauch | -0.235 | 0.000 | -0.235 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.17 | 3 |
| MIN | MIN Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| MIN | Ron Gardenhire | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Doug Fister | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.04 | 23 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | -1.122 | -1.122 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Matt Tuiasosopo | -1.446 | -0.936 | 0.000 | -0.510 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | 1.318 | 0.840 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.247 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | 1.850 | 0.365 | 0.000 | 1.485 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Josh Wilson | 1.598 | 1.595 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | 0.608 | -0.284 | 0.000 | 0.892 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 1.152 | 0.234 | 0.000 | 0.918 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | -0.401 | -0.228 | 0.000 | -0.173 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | -0.651 | -0.651 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ken Griffey Jr | -0.390 | -0.390 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Michael Saunders | -0.324 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.324 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | -0.208 | -0.208 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ryan Rowland-Smith | -0.469 | 0.000 | -0.469 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 15.95 | 1 |
| SEA | Brandon League | 0.279 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.89 | 3 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.317 | 0.317 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Safeco Field | 2.983 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -2.983 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
How Net Runs works
Player of the Game: Delmon Young (2.039 NRuns: 1.457 hitting, 0.582 fielding)
Also pretty good: Justin Morneau (1.552 NRuns: 1.172 hitting, 0.439 fielding, -0.059 running)
Mariners Player of the Game: Jose Lopez (1.850 NRuns: 0.365 hitting, 1.485 fielding)
Mariners with more than 1.000 NRuns contributed: 4 (Lopez, Josh Wilson, Franklin Gutierrez, Chone Figgins)
Mariners defense: 2.846 NRuns
Rob Johnson and Matt Tuiasosopo: -2.058 hitting NRuns
Mike Sweeney and pinch hitters (Griffey, Kotchman): -1.249 hitting NRuns
Rest of Mariners hitters: 2.522 NRuns
Goat: JJ Hardy (-1.890 NRuns: -0.897 hitting, -0.559 fielding, -0.434 running)
******
I'm tired of talking about the futility of losses in what's become a lost season, so I'll focus on the simpler, productive details.
Francisco Liriano and Doug Fister pitched much better games than their lines indicate. The final was 5-4 but had more of the makings of a 3-2 game. Fister's had better games but not only did he show veteran caliber backbone in shaking off five flash runs and pitching into the 8th, but 5 of his 7 full innings were 1-2-3 frames. Save for the two bad frames (flyballs and line drives are going to happen: It's just a matter of minimizing them), Fister was solid yet again. Those of you waiting for him to plummet back to replacement level Earth... once again have to wait another week.
Liriano seemed like he got into a lot of trouble, and... well... he kind of did, but killed a lot of rallies with big strikeout after big strikeout... though I guess getting to face Rob Johnson and Matt Tuiasosopo certainly helps.
Don Wakamatsu finally got the hint with Josh Wilson and let the surprisingly productive shortstop hit during a pressure situation in the 9th, only to see Wilson come up with an RBI single. Probably not a bad idea to try that again. Actually, Wak also made good moves in pinch hitting Griffey and Kotchman, even if both produced rally-killer outs to end the game. Griffey and Kotchman are much better bets to produce in a tight spot than Rob and Tui.
Brandon League's going to get kudos for getting the M's out of a two runner, no out jam in the top 9th, and truth be told he did a fine job with three groundballs. But the credit belongs mainly to a guy who has caught a lot of flak lately: Jose Lopez.
On a double play ball, Lopez could have gone for the 5-4-3 and conceded the run. He also could have checked Justin Morneau back to 3rd and taken the out at 1st (though that would have put runners at 2nd and 3rd and Wak likely would have responded with yet another stupid intentional walk). Instead, Morneau helped Lopez out by breaking for home a little too soon and being forced to commit to his ill-fated run, giving Lopez the easy decision to throw home and get Morneau for the 1st out AND save a run. Lopez already had made a solid play by keeping Cuddyer's ground in the infield (0.481 NRuns), but added another 0.218 runs by getting the out at home.
Lopez then finished the inning by snagging the other two League grounders and converting both into outs. Lopez's work that inning was worth 1.485 NRuns, pretty much cleaning up the mess that Ryan Rowland-Smith had left Brandon League. Nicely done.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
An updated look at the AL Central
Minnesota - The Twins didn't realize it, but their bullpen overhaul actually made them worse. Sure, they had to replace the injured Jesse Crain, but Jose Mijares and Juan Morillo (though the Twins went out of their way to get him on the roster, there's a reason the pitching-starved Rockies dumped him last season) have such bad control problems that they may actually pitch BELOW replacement level. R.A. Dickey is fine as a replacement arm, but swapping out Brian Duensing and punting Phillip Humber while relying on three replacement arms is not. The Twins now have a serious shot at 90 losses.
Kansas City - Alex Gordon's injury leads to Mitch Maier's promotion (he's not a bad bench bat) and more time for Alberto Callaspo. The team should see surprisingly little dropoff, as Gordon's defense was simply okay, his hitting was decent but not great, Maier adds some power off the bench and Callaspo isn't terrible at the plate. Brian Bannister supplants Horacio Ramirez in the rotation, and gives a bit above replacement level effort at best. For some reason, I expected Ramirez to be halfway decent. Huh. Anyway, the Royals' chances of .500 baseball go down from these developments, and 85 losses now seems a more solid prognosis.
Detroit - Backup catcher Matt treanor got hurt, and now something called Dane Sardinha backs up Gerald Laird, downgrading the offense just a bit (Treanor is a least a bit above replacement level). Losing Marcus Thames however (ribs) is a huge blow, even if Ryan Raburn's power and better ability to get on base makes him a solid replacement. Thames had other-worldly power, and even the best backup power bat is a big downgrade. Offsetting some of that damage is the return to Joel Zumaya to the bullpen, instantly bolstering an average unit. Also bolstering Detroit's chances is the increased likelihood that the halfway-decent Zach Miner will stick in the rotation, as Rick Porcello hasn't impressed as Jeremy Bonderman's fill-in. As it stands, 85-90 wins and the AL Central title is still an easy possibility.
Cleveland - Scott Lewis will spend a week or two on the DL with a forearm strain, meaning replacement innings from Aaron Laffey. The Indians turned over their bullpen, sending down Zach Jackson and bringing in the likes of Vinnie Chulk, Jensen Lewis and Tony Sipp, slightly above replacement level downgrades. This reduces the likelihood of significant innings from Zach Jackson, as the team likely won't give him a chance to start until later this season, if at all before September. This is the opening the Tigers may need to sneak off with the Central, as when we started the two teams were neck and neck. But this drops the Indians to a solid 85 win team.
Chicago White Sox - The team sent away struggling Mike MacDougal and decided to test drive replacement level Lance Broadway. He's a downgrade but this is already a bleh pitching staff hampered by a bad defense, so not much loss there. Jerry Owens is back as DeWayne Wise hits the DL with a separated shoulder, but it looks like an improved Brian Anderson will soak up most of the starts at CF. This team still sucks, on the 95-100 loss level.
Kansas City - Alex Gordon's injury leads to Mitch Maier's promotion (he's not a bad bench bat) and more time for Alberto Callaspo. The team should see surprisingly little dropoff, as Gordon's defense was simply okay, his hitting was decent but not great, Maier adds some power off the bench and Callaspo isn't terrible at the plate. Brian Bannister supplants Horacio Ramirez in the rotation, and gives a bit above replacement level effort at best. For some reason, I expected Ramirez to be halfway decent. Huh. Anyway, the Royals' chances of .500 baseball go down from these developments, and 85 losses now seems a more solid prognosis.
Detroit - Backup catcher Matt treanor got hurt, and now something called Dane Sardinha backs up Gerald Laird, downgrading the offense just a bit (Treanor is a least a bit above replacement level). Losing Marcus Thames however (ribs) is a huge blow, even if Ryan Raburn's power and better ability to get on base makes him a solid replacement. Thames had other-worldly power, and even the best backup power bat is a big downgrade. Offsetting some of that damage is the return to Joel Zumaya to the bullpen, instantly bolstering an average unit. Also bolstering Detroit's chances is the increased likelihood that the halfway-decent Zach Miner will stick in the rotation, as Rick Porcello hasn't impressed as Jeremy Bonderman's fill-in. As it stands, 85-90 wins and the AL Central title is still an easy possibility.
Cleveland - Scott Lewis will spend a week or two on the DL with a forearm strain, meaning replacement innings from Aaron Laffey. The Indians turned over their bullpen, sending down Zach Jackson and bringing in the likes of Vinnie Chulk, Jensen Lewis and Tony Sipp, slightly above replacement level downgrades. This reduces the likelihood of significant innings from Zach Jackson, as the team likely won't give him a chance to start until later this season, if at all before September. This is the opening the Tigers may need to sneak off with the Central, as when we started the two teams were neck and neck. But this drops the Indians to a solid 85 win team.
Chicago White Sox - The team sent away struggling Mike MacDougal and decided to test drive replacement level Lance Broadway. He's a downgrade but this is already a bleh pitching staff hampered by a bad defense, so not much loss there. Jerry Owens is back as DeWayne Wise hits the DL with a separated shoulder, but it looks like an improved Brian Anderson will soak up most of the starts at CF. This team still sucks, on the 95-100 loss level.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
An educated guess about the AL Central for 2009
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox
This will actually be a close race between the Indians and Tigers in a so-so division, and the eventual champ will probably finish in the 85-90 win range. The Indians have slowly rebuilt with a solid young core of youngsters and productive low-cost vets. They easily have the best pitching staff in the division (though still a step below the millionaire Yankee and Red Sox rotations) and a decent defense. Their offense in sum won’t wow you but they have a bevy of productive bats.
The Tigers have gradually reloaded the lineup and while they never will score a ton of runs playing in cavernous Comerica Park, they pack enough power to provide a great defense and an average pitching staff with sufficient support. The Tigers also showed they were willing to unload veteran dead weight, such as Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers and Gary Sheffield, to play younger, more productive players. While they have a better defense than Cleveland, the Indians have a better pitching staff, and the two teams are nearly dead even overall. It would not surprise me to see the AL Central come down to a one game playoff between these two.
One surprise improvement this season will come from the Kansas City Royals, who, while making a series of unproductive pickups over the last couple years (Kyle Davies, Jose Guillen, Willie Bloomquist, Coco Crisp), made their biggest defensive improvement without adding anybody: they moved David DeJesus, a solid CF, to LF, where he becomes one of the position’s top defenders. The emergence of excellent defender Mike Aviles at SS now gives the Royals one of the AL’s best defenses. They won’t score enough runs to compete and their pitching staff still has a few tomato cans, but they can easily play .500 ball.
Fans are high on the Twins, but don’t count on them winning more than 80 games this season, if they can even manage 70-75. Their defense gets help from speedsters like Denard Span and Carlos Gomez, but they still have a few holes, their offense lacks consistency and pop (even with Joe Mauer) and they did little to improve their nondescript, mediocre pitching staff.
The White Sox offense will do a decent job despite some lineup holes (like the revolving door in CF, the fading AJ Pierzynski at catcher and the developing Chris Getz at 2B). But what seals their doom is a weak pitching staff coupled with a terrible defense. Jermaine Dye is a horrible RF, Alexei Ramirez is not a good fielder wherever he plays, none of their fielders are standout defenders and bench players like Wilson Betemit don’t make good defensive replacements. Add in home run friendly U.S. Cellular Field, and the ChiSox should lead the league in runs… allowed. This team likely reaches 95 losses, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen will likely lose their jobs, and many of the incumbent vets (Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle) should get the old heave-ho via trade or free agency during or after 2009.
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox
This will actually be a close race between the Indians and Tigers in a so-so division, and the eventual champ will probably finish in the 85-90 win range. The Indians have slowly rebuilt with a solid young core of youngsters and productive low-cost vets. They easily have the best pitching staff in the division (though still a step below the millionaire Yankee and Red Sox rotations) and a decent defense. Their offense in sum won’t wow you but they have a bevy of productive bats.
The Tigers have gradually reloaded the lineup and while they never will score a ton of runs playing in cavernous Comerica Park, they pack enough power to provide a great defense and an average pitching staff with sufficient support. The Tigers also showed they were willing to unload veteran dead weight, such as Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers and Gary Sheffield, to play younger, more productive players. While they have a better defense than Cleveland, the Indians have a better pitching staff, and the two teams are nearly dead even overall. It would not surprise me to see the AL Central come down to a one game playoff between these two.
One surprise improvement this season will come from the Kansas City Royals, who, while making a series of unproductive pickups over the last couple years (Kyle Davies, Jose Guillen, Willie Bloomquist, Coco Crisp), made their biggest defensive improvement without adding anybody: they moved David DeJesus, a solid CF, to LF, where he becomes one of the position’s top defenders. The emergence of excellent defender Mike Aviles at SS now gives the Royals one of the AL’s best defenses. They won’t score enough runs to compete and their pitching staff still has a few tomato cans, but they can easily play .500 ball.
Fans are high on the Twins, but don’t count on them winning more than 80 games this season, if they can even manage 70-75. Their defense gets help from speedsters like Denard Span and Carlos Gomez, but they still have a few holes, their offense lacks consistency and pop (even with Joe Mauer) and they did little to improve their nondescript, mediocre pitching staff.
The White Sox offense will do a decent job despite some lineup holes (like the revolving door in CF, the fading AJ Pierzynski at catcher and the developing Chris Getz at 2B). But what seals their doom is a weak pitching staff coupled with a terrible defense. Jermaine Dye is a horrible RF, Alexei Ramirez is not a good fielder wherever he plays, none of their fielders are standout defenders and bench players like Wilson Betemit don’t make good defensive replacements. Add in home run friendly U.S. Cellular Field, and the ChiSox should lead the league in runs… allowed. This team likely reaches 95 losses, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen will likely lose their jobs, and many of the incumbent vets (Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle) should get the old heave-ho via trade or free agency during or after 2009.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Mariners notes from April 7 (Minnesota 6, Seattle 5)
- Well, the first 8.8 innings went pretty well :P
- Yuniesky Betancourt won't even be the great defender he was when he first came up in 2005. You can thank getting fat and happy off the mainland for that. But the leaping Superman catch he made to rob what looked like a sure base hit indicates he's at least close. Working out and dieting this offseason did him good.
- Don't be fooled by 11 runs in 2 games: the Mariners have had a lot of luck on grounders getting past the infield for hits. You can bet that once they get off the bouncy Metrodome FieldTurf that a lot of those grounders become easy outs, so more of those grounders need to become line drives or the M's are going to look more like last year's team at the plate.
- Franklin Gutierrez makes every play look routine. There were a couple flyballs that looked like extra bases, but after a few quick steps, Gut casually strolled to the spot and made what looked like an easy catch. I give the saberheads grief but they're not kidding about the guy's range: He's probably the best CF the M's have had since Mike Cameron. He can cover all of CF and parts of LF and RF if he wants. Hell, if you stuck him out there by himself, I'm not sure you could get a flyball with any lift by him unless you hit it down the line.
- What sucks for Brandon Morrow is that he put down the first two batters easily. But even then he never had much control of his fastball, and then once he decided to work away from the next batter (a lefty), he kept missing high and outside and it just got away from him. Such is the peril of sending a guy who spent spring training injured out there to close after only four innings of work. Does he lose control of his stuff if not so rusty? Can't say for certain, but chances aren't as likely.
Manager Don Wakamatsu and Rick Adair didn't want Morrow challenging the lefthanders inside, but really, once the control was gone, they should have just said screw the game plan and had him pound fastballs on the inner half. That fastball was around 97 (the FSN gun said 93-94 but others insist that was off) and with how it moves, it's often unhittable even when he throws it down the pike. By focusing on the outside part of the plate, Morrow just landed in the no man's land of zero control and couldn't get out. Throwing it down the middle is generally bad, but when you can't hit your spots and your stuff's generally tough to hit, I think you can make an exception in game-breaking circumstances.
- And enough about Brandon Morrow's diabetes. It had far less to do with the meltdown than being rusty did.
- Even after walking the bases loaded, the Mariners still get out of this with a win and a cheap save for Miguel Batista if Denard Span's bases loaded grounder hadn't take such a high, FieldTurf aided superbounce that left Adrian Beltre with no play. One hung breaking ball from Batista to Alexi Casilla later and that was that.
- Yuniesky Betancourt won't even be the great defender he was when he first came up in 2005. You can thank getting fat and happy off the mainland for that. But the leaping Superman catch he made to rob what looked like a sure base hit indicates he's at least close. Working out and dieting this offseason did him good.
- Don't be fooled by 11 runs in 2 games: the Mariners have had a lot of luck on grounders getting past the infield for hits. You can bet that once they get off the bouncy Metrodome FieldTurf that a lot of those grounders become easy outs, so more of those grounders need to become line drives or the M's are going to look more like last year's team at the plate.
- Franklin Gutierrez makes every play look routine. There were a couple flyballs that looked like extra bases, but after a few quick steps, Gut casually strolled to the spot and made what looked like an easy catch. I give the saberheads grief but they're not kidding about the guy's range: He's probably the best CF the M's have had since Mike Cameron. He can cover all of CF and parts of LF and RF if he wants. Hell, if you stuck him out there by himself, I'm not sure you could get a flyball with any lift by him unless you hit it down the line.
- What sucks for Brandon Morrow is that he put down the first two batters easily. But even then he never had much control of his fastball, and then once he decided to work away from the next batter (a lefty), he kept missing high and outside and it just got away from him. Such is the peril of sending a guy who spent spring training injured out there to close after only four innings of work. Does he lose control of his stuff if not so rusty? Can't say for certain, but chances aren't as likely.
Manager Don Wakamatsu and Rick Adair didn't want Morrow challenging the lefthanders inside, but really, once the control was gone, they should have just said screw the game plan and had him pound fastballs on the inner half. That fastball was around 97 (the FSN gun said 93-94 but others insist that was off) and with how it moves, it's often unhittable even when he throws it down the pike. By focusing on the outside part of the plate, Morrow just landed in the no man's land of zero control and couldn't get out. Throwing it down the middle is generally bad, but when you can't hit your spots and your stuff's generally tough to hit, I think you can make an exception in game-breaking circumstances.
- And enough about Brandon Morrow's diabetes. It had far less to do with the meltdown than being rusty did.
- Even after walking the bases loaded, the Mariners still get out of this with a win and a cheap save for Miguel Batista if Denard Span's bases loaded grounder hadn't take such a high, FieldTurf aided superbounce that left Adrian Beltre with no play. One hung breaking ball from Batista to Alexi Casilla later and that was that.
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