Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-10-2010 (Texas 12, Seattle 3)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-4.008	0.000	-4.008	0.000	0.000	11.09	17
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.229	-0.781	0.000	1.061	-0.509	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	-0.971	0.104	0.000	-1.075	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.585	1.341	0.000	-0.756	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.477	-1.131	0.000	1.608	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-3.642	-0.996	0.000	-2.646	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	1.798	0.489	0.000	1.309	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.263	-0.902	0.000	0.639	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.187	0.432	0.000	-0.352	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-1.486	-1.486	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Shawn Kelley	-0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000	0.000	7.73	3
SEA	Garrett Olson	0.154	0.000	0.154	0.000	0.000	3.90	3
SEA	Brandon League	0.064	0.000	0.064	0.000	0.000	3.59	1
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.734	0.734	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Tommy Hunter	-1.093	0.000	-1.093	0.000	0.000	6.71	18
TEX	Matt Treanor	0.043	0.150	0.000	-0.107	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	1.205	1.205	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	-2.018	-0.440	0.000	-0.672	-0.906	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	1.931	1.507	0.000	0.424	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	-0.026	-0.987	0.000	0.961	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	3.354	1.920	0.000	1.434	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	-1.104	1.209	0.000	-1.568	-0.745	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	2.293	0.329	0.000	1.857	0.107	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	2.102	2.102	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Frank Francisco	0.316	0.000	0.316	0.000	0.000	2.55	3
TEX	Darren O'Day	0.239	0.000	0.239	0.000	0.000	3.20	3
TEX	Darren Oliver	0.622	0.000	0.622	0.000	0.000	0.00	3
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.369	-0.369	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	-0.082	-0.267	0.000	0.185	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	-0.209	-0.209	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	TEX Luckbox	2.418	2.418	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	2.718	0.000	0.000	-2.718	0.000	0.00	0.622

Player of the Game: Josh Hamilton (3.354 NRuns: 1.920 hitting, 1.434 pitching)
Texas Luckbox: 2.418 NRuns

Rangers with more than 2.000 NRuns: 3 (Hamilton, Guerrero, Murphy)

Rob Johnson's defense: 1.061 NRuns
Josh Wilson's defense: -2.646 NRuns

Ichiro at DH: -1.486 NRuns

Mariners Player of the Game: Michael Saunders (1.798 NRuns: 0.489 hitting, 1.309 fielding)

Goat: Ryan Rowland-Smith (-4.008 pitching NRuns... 11.09 EXERA)

******

One item deserves comment: Brandon League's meltdown was not Brandon League's fault. Of the six batters he faced in his 4th run 6th inning appearance (after he entered with two outs), four hit groundballs, one struck out and one hit a line drive. And the line drive came after back to back to back groundballs, any of which could have been converted into the 3rd out to end the frame. Instead, Rangers batters reached on all three, two of which beat SS Josh Wilson.

For any and all help that Josh Wilson has provided at the plate, his defense at SS has been fairly bad, and Jack Wilson's return would likely upgrade the fielding at that position. Wilson is not a long term solution at SS, not because of his hitting (which it turns out might actually be useful) but because you don't want his relative lack of range at SS everyday if you're a defense-first team.

So in any case, many will point to this outing as a Brandon League meltdown, but Brandon League pitched fine. His defense let him down, and Ryan Rowland-Smith did far more to give the game away early with one of his worst pitching performances in what's been a pretty bad season for the embattled Aussie.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-9-2010 (Texas 12, Seattle 2)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ian Snell	-2.382	0.000	-2.686	0.304	0.000	18.63	5
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-3.391	-1.569	0.000	-1.822	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-0.228	0.421	0.000	-0.649	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.102	-0.570	0.000	0.468	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.305	0.289	0.000	-0.594	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	1.493	0.964	0.000	0.529	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-1.182	-0.757	0.000	-0.425	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-1.492	-1.075	0.000	-0.417	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.421	-0.405	0.000	0.826	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.190	0.154	0.000	0.000	-0.344	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	1.112	-0.870	0.000	1.982	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Luke French	-1.211	0.000	-1.211	0.000	0.000	7.08	16
SEA	Sean White	-0.749	0.000	-0.749	0.000	0.000	11.44	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.164	0.164	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	CJ Wilson	-3.571	0.000	-3.571	0.000	0.000	9.45	21
TEX	Max Ramirez	-0.957	-0.818	0.000	-0.165	0.026	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-0.928	-0.393	0.000	-0.535	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	2.205	1.873	0.000	0.332	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	1.664	1.664	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	-0.191	-1.295	0.000	1.104	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	2.056	2.256	0.000	-0.200	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	3.440	0.965	0.000	2.475	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	5.311	1.050	0.000	4.261	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	1.310	1.712	0.000	0.000	-0.402	0.00	0
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.286	-0.286	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	-0.209	-0.209	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	0.652	0.000	0.000	0.652	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Dustin Nippert	-1.209	0.000	-1.209	0.000	0.000	12.75	4
TEX	Neftali Feliz	0.454	0.000	0.454	0.000	0.000	-0.49	2
TEX	TEX Luckbox	0.881	0.881	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	2.580	0.000	0.000	-2.580	0.000	0.00	0.622

Player of the Game: David Murphy (5.311 NRuns: 1.050 hitiing, 4.261 fielding)

Josh Hamilton: 2.056 NRuns
Julio Borbon: 3.440 NRuns
Ian Kinsler: 2.205 NRuns
Michael Young: 1.664 NRuns
Vlad Guerrero: 1.310 NRuns

Rangers hitting: 6.519 NRuns
Rangers pitching: -4.326 NRuns

Mariners hitting: -3.418 NRuns
Mariners pitching: -4.646 NRuns
Mariners infield defense: -1.764 NRuns

Goat: Eliezer Alfonzo (-3.391 NRuns: -1.569 hitting, -1.822 catching)
Dishonorable mention: Ian Snell (-2.382 NRuns: -2.686 pitching, 18.63 EXERA, 0.304 fielding)

******

Dave Cameron's expecting a DFA for Ian Snell tomorrow morning, and... well... I can't really defend Snell at this point.

With Luke French looking fairly poor himself, I wonder who you would call up to replace Snell. Do you go with French in the rotation and maybe get another reliever (Brian Sweeney?). Do you go and get one of the other fringe starters (Chris Seddon, Steven Shell)?

Don't know, don't particularly care. This game sucked and this team sucks. Ryan Langerhans saved like two runs in the field during his two innings of work, though. All the good it did.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-8-2010 (Texas 7, Seattle 1)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	-0.621	0.000	-0.621	0.000	0.000	6.05	18
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.071	1.169	0.000	0.000	-1.098	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	-0.658	-1.519	0.000	0.861	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.732	-0.346	0.000	-0.386	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.904	-0.071	0.000	-0.833	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.435	-1.296	0.000	0.861	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-2.584	-0.332	0.000	-2.386	0.134	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.479	0.582	0.000	0.866	0.031	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.321	-1.317	0.000	0.996	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-1.280	-1.280	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Garrett Olson	0.200	0.000	0.200	0.000	0.000	3.52	3
SEA	Chad Cordero	-0.112	0.000	-0.112	0.000	0.000	6.12	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.745	0.745	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Colby Lewis	-1.174	0.000	-1.200	0.026	0.000	6.62	21
TEX	Max Ramirez	0.404	-0.560	0.000	0.964	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	2.590	1.390	0.000	1.200	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	0.314	-0.243	0.000	0.557	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	-1.210	-1.210	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	1.555	1.865	0.000	-0.310	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	1.683	1.603	0.000	0.080	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	1.270	-1.284	0.000	2.554	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	0.595	0.315	0.000	0.280	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	-0.008	-0.008	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.369	-0.369	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Chris Ray	0.131	0.000	0.131	0.000	0.000	4.10	3
TEX	Darren O'Day	0.316	0.000	0.316	0.000	0.000	2.55	3
TEX	TEX Luckbox	0.525	0.525	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	1.470	0.000	0.000	-1.470	0.000	0.00	0.622

Player of the Game: Justin Smoak (2.590 NRuns: 1.390 hitting, 1.200 fielding)
Rangers with over 1.000 NRuns: 4 (Smoak, Andrus, Hamilton, Borbon)
Rangers defense: 5.351 NRuns

Mariners defnese: -0.021 NRuns
Positive Mariners contributions: 3 (Johnson, Gutierrez, Olson)
Negative Mariners contributions: 10

Goat: Michael Saunders (-2.584 NRuns: -0.332 hitting, -2.386 fielding, 0.134 running)

******

This was a "Just in case you thought Cliff Lee's complete game gave the M's any momentum" game.

One note about this game: Felix's first five innings were TERRIFIC. Felix saved about 1.904 NRuns (2.17 EXERA) through five... and then the wheels flew right off in the 6th: A hit batter, a walk and three line drives in a three run inning for the Rangers. Saunders getting played like a piano on that two out two run double by Elvis Andrus sure didn't help, but it's like Felix just flipped a switch before the top 6th and became a tomato can. Usually the M's watch the bullpen blow games... it's not everyday that a top starter like Felix would come out and blow his own game by himself.

Whether or not it worked yesterday, hitting Milton Bradley 2nd sure didn't work today (-1.280 hitting NRuns), but then again nobody for the M's (save for Franklin Gutierrez, and Rob Johnson of all people) was hitting today. Mike Carp (-1.519), Josh Wilson (-1.296) and Ichiro (-1.317) also had notably bad days at the plate.

Factoids on the first four rounds of the MLB draft

1. Since drafting Joe Mauer 1st overall in 2001 the Minnesota Twins have had 16 1st round selections thanks to Type A and B compensation, and have whiffed on all but two of those: Only Denard Span (2002), Matt Garza (2005) and Glen Perkins (2004) have seen serious time in the Majors. Perkins turned out rather ordinary while Garza didn't hit his stride until he was traded to Tampa Bay and only now is Span paying dividends after a ton of time in the minors.

Even the woebegone Pirates, notorious for whiffing on high picks, managed to get six of their picks in the 2000's to the bigs, and once Brad Lincoln gets an expected callup sometime this year that will make it seven.

2. In back to back years, the Yankees drafted players in the 2nd round who didn't sign and went on to prominent football careers. In 1981 they burned their 2nd rounder on an OF named John Elway, and in 1982 they spent a 2nd round pick on a high school SS named Bo Jackson. The latter of course comes with an obvious caveat: Bo Jackson would become a two sport star at Auburn University and eventually get drafted in the 4th round of the 1986 draft by the Kansas City Royals, going on to a famous dual career with the Royals and football's Los Angeles Raiders.

3. You'd be hard pressed to find a team that drafted more MLB value in the 3rd round than the Texas Rangers, but sadly most of that value paid off for other teams.

Dean Palmer (1986) would go on to a solid career with the Detroit Tigers. Scott Podsednik (1994) would eventually break in with the Mariners, see his first regular action with the Brewers and go on to win a World Series with the White Sox. Ryan Dempster (1995) broke in with the Marlins and has since gone on to a productive career with the Cubs. And their biggest 3rd round prize, Barry Zito (1998), did most of his damage as a star for the rival Oakland Athletics.

The only 3rd rounder the Rangers picked who became a solid player under their watch? Darren Oliver (1988) became a productive pitcher for them during the 1990's, and at age 39 is coincidentally with them today as their top lefthanded reliever.

4. The 4th round is where the percentage of eventual MLBers really drops. But the Angels had the most prolific stretch of 4th rounders prior to 1996, producing 16 players that would eventually reach the bigs out of 30 4th round selections. Key regulars from this stretch included catcher Brian Harper, pitchers Mike Witt and Kirk McCaskill, and LF Garret Anderson. But since 1995, only one of their 4th round picks has reached the bigs, and the one that did got away: Brian Matusz passed on the Angels offer, went to college and eventually got drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in 2008.

Prolifically barren histories include the aforementioned Pirates, who of their 45 selections only produced 8 players who eventually saw MLB time, and of those eight only Jeff Keppinger (2001), Wes Chamberlain (1987) and pitcher Stew Cliburn (1977) would become MLB regulars for any real length of time. The Brewers only produced 7 major leaguers from 43 picks, and none of those picks produced more than 0.5 WAR over their careers. Granted, one of those MLBers was the late Josh Hancock, who died in a car wreck very early in his career with the Cardinals, and the jury's out on 2005 pick Mat Gamel.

The greatest 4th round pick of all time had to come from the Oakland A's in 1976, when they burned the 96th overall pick on a local outfielder from Technical HS named Rickey Henderson.

The Dodgers had the most interesting stretch of 4th rounders. After drafting eventual catcher Steve Yeager in 1967, the Dodgers had 19 consecutive 4th round picks between 1970-1989 that never played a game in the big leagues. Following that, 9 of their next 13 4th round selections would go on to play in the Majors, though none ever became a productive regular. Since 2003 none of their 4th rounders have reached the Majors.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-7-2010 (Seattle 4, Texas 2)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	2.510	0.000	3.035	-0.525	0.000	2.38	27
SEA	Rob Johnson	1.031	1.031	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	0.261	-0.163	0.000	0.424	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-2.269	0.454	0.000	-2.214	-0.509	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-2.014	-0.380	0.000	-1.125	-0.509	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.812	-0.497	0.000	1.309	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	1.975	1.210	0.000	0.765	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.418	-1.269	0.000	0.851	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.537	-0.482	0.000	0.912	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.627	-0.627	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.166	0.000	0.000	0.166	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.298	0.298	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.262	-0.262	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Scott Feldman	-1.291	0.000	-1.457	0.166	0.000	7.33	17
TEX	Matt Treanor	-0.478	-1.389	0.000	0.911	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	-0.863	-0.622	0.000	-0.241	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	0.617	-0.052	0.000	0.669	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	0.490	-0.481	0.000	0.766	0.205	0.00	0
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.623	-0.078	0.000	-0.545	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	-0.150	-0.479	0.000	0.329	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	1.165	-0.020	0.000	1.185	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	0.005	-0.380	0.000	0.385	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	-0.783	-0.783	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-0.044	-0.044	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Matt Harrison	1.327	0.000	0.345	0.982	0.000	4.33	10
TEX	TEX Luckbox	0.787	0.525	0.000	0.262	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	2.159	0.000	0.000	-2.159	0.000	0.00	0.622

How Net Runs works

Player of the Game: Cliff Lee (2.510 NRuns: 3.035 pitching, -0.525 fielding... 2.38 EXERA)

Honorable mention: Michael Saunders (1.975 NRuns: 1.210 hitting, 0.765 fielding)

Mariners defense: 0.563 NRuns
Mariners hitting: -0.723 NRuns
Mariners baserunning: -0.911 NRuns
Cliff Lee's pitching: 3.035 NRuns

Josh Hamilton: 1.165 NRuns
Rest of Rangers lineup: -1.829 NRuns

Goats?

Chone Figgins (-2.269 NRuns: 0.454 hitting, -2.214 fielding, -0.509 running)
Jose Lopez (-2.014 NRuns: -0.380 hitting, -1.125 fielding, -0.509 running)

******

This may be Cliff Lee's best performance of the season, shaking off some defensive miscues and throwing a complete game in one of MLB's offensive launchpads against a strong Texas Rangers lineu- okay fine they started Joaquin Arias, Andres Blanco and Craig Gentry today, but still. Conditions were ripe for a tough outing and Lee instead pitched arguably his best game of the season.

His best innings had to be the 4th (1.117 NRuns), where he went groundball, strikeout, strikeout, groundball, groundball to shake off two groundball singles and not allow any damage... and the 9th and final inning (0.959 NRuns), where he got five groundballs, a harmless flyout and a pop out to end the game. His only real blemish was the line drive that ended the 6th... a line drive that found SS Josh Wilson for the 3rd out.

Masterful performance, Cliff Lee.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-2-2010 (Texas 3, Seattle 1, 11 innings)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	CJ Wilson	0.049	0.000	-0.297	0.346	0.000	4.57	21
TEX	Max Ramirez	0.154	0.096	0.000	0.058	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-0.357	-0.357	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	-0.362	-0.159	0.000	-0.203	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	-2.303	-1.562	0.000	-0.741	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	1.623	0.407	0.000	1.057	0.159	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	0.946	-0.408	0.000	1.354	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	1.537	-0.477	0.000	2.014	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	0.968	0.525	0.000	0.877	-0.434	0.00	0
TEX	Ryan Garko	1.025	-0.819	0.000	1.844	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Matt Treanor	-0.313	-0.313	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	0.264	0.264	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.356	-0.356	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Chris Ray	-0.922	0.000	-0.922	0.000	0.000	11.91	3
TEX	Darren Oliver	-0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000	0.000	7.49	3
TEX	Dustin Nippert	-0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000	0.000	8.48	3
TEX	Neftali Feliz	0.073	0.000	0.073	0.000	0.000	3.60	3
TEX	TEX Luckbox	1.132	1.132	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	-0.253	-0.253	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Doug Fister	0.222	0.000	0.141	0.081	0.000	4.07	24
SEA	Rob Johnson	-1.511	-0.784	0.000	-0.727	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.609	-0.510	0.000	1.119	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.271	0.686	0.000	0.181	-0.596	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.056	-0.441	0.000	0.497	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jack Wilson	-0.196	-0.127	0.000	-0.069	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Eric Byrnes	-0.344	-1.548	0.000	1.204	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	2.004	1.568	0.000	0.436	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.075	-1.338	0.000	1.697	-0.434	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-1.248	-1.031	0.000	0.000	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000	0.000	8.94	3
SEA	Brandon League	-0.328	0.000	-0.328	0.000	0.000	6.95	3
SEA	Mark Lowe	-1.233	0.000	-0.550	-0.683	0.000	8.80	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.470	0.217	0.000	0.253	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.004 NRuns: 1.568 hitting, 0.436 fielding)

Banner Bank Building to the Future (With the Crumbling Foundation of the Present):
Mark Lowe (-1.233 NRuns: -0.550 pitching, -0.683 fielding)

We dumped him in part because his defense was awful: Ryan Garko (1.025 NRuns: -0.819 hitting, 1.844 fielding)

Elvis has thankfully left the building: Elvis Andrus (1.623 NRuns: 0.407 hitting, 1.057 fielding, 0.159 running)

TEX Luckbox: 1.132 NRuns
Mariners baserunning: -1.247 NRuns

Mariners Goat: Rob Johnson (-1.511 NRuns: -0.784 hitting, -0.727 fielding)

Texas sized goat: Michael Young (-2.303 NRuns: -1.562 hitting, -0.741 fielding)

Goodbye, team goat: Eric Byrnes (-0.344 NRuns: -1.548 hitting, 1.204 fielding)

******

Of Doug Fister's incredible 2010 starts, this one was the best, as while the other ones were smoke and mirrors, this was a legitimately strong, above average start. He kept the line drives and flyballs to a minimum, so go figure it took the Texas Rangers six innings to hit him.

Other than that, there's not much more to say. The offense didn't produce again. The bullpen had no margin for error and cost the team the lead once the Rangers scored, and with the Mariners running on empty at the plate, it was only a matter of time before the Rangers struck. And that was without designated outs Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Sweeney in the lineup, so save for Eric Byrnes (who was let go after today's game), who you saw is essentially the present and future for the Mariners as of right now, barring any subsequent moves. It's doubtful Ryan Langerhans will be more than a part time player, and as of right now there's no plans to upgrade at catcher.

That's all.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-1-2010 (Texas 6, Seattle 3)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Matt Harrison	-1.236	0.000	-1.236	0.000	0.000	5.93	18
TEX	Matt Treanor	-0.713	-0.713	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-0.542	0.227	0.000	-0.552	-0.217	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	0.274	0.980	0.000	-0.706	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	-0.517	0.142	0.000	-0.659	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	2.860	1.527	0.000	1.333	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	0.903	0.542	0.000	0.361	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	2.127	-0.147	0.000	2.274	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	1.478	0.289	0.000	1.189	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	-1.203	-0.769	0.000	0.000	-0.434	0.00	0
TEX	Chris Ray	-0.676	0.000	-0.676	0.000	0.000	9.85	3
TEX	Frank Francisco	0.003	0.000	0.003	0.000	0.000	4.19	3
TEX	Darren O'Day	0.214	0.000	0.138	0.076	0.000	3.06	3
TEX	TEX Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	-0.511	0.000	-1.263	0.752	0.000	6.64	13
SEA	Rob Johnson	-1.420	-1.108	0.000	0.169	-0.481	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.118	-0.108	0.000	0.226	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.360	0.717	0.000	-0.357	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.849	0.733	0.000	0.116	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jack Wilson	1.175	0.004	0.000	1.171	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	0.727	0.201	0.000	0.526	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-2.673	-0.735	0.000	-1.721	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.173	-0.508	0.000	0.681	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-0.750	-0.750	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jesus Colome	-0.327	0.000	-0.327	0.000	0.000	5.58	6
SEA	Kanekoa Texeira	-0.665	0.000	-0.873	0.208	0.000	7.85	6
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.324	-0.324	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	0.217	0.000	0.000	0.217	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	1.031	1.031	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.952	0.000	0.000	-0.952	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Elvis Andrus (2.860 NRuns: 1.527 hitting, 1.333 fielding)
Fairly close: Julio Borbon (2.127 NRuns: -0.147 hitting, 2.274 fielding)

Felix Hernandez: -1.263 NRuns
Mariners bullpen: -1.200 NRuns

Leading Mariner: Jack Wilson (1.175 NRuns: 0.004 hitting, 1.171 fielding)
SEA Luckbox: 1.031 NRuns
Rest of Mariners: -4.226 NRuns

Goat: Franklin Gutierrez (-2.673 NRuns: -0.735 hitting, -1.721 fielding, -0.217 running)

******

I didn't bother with this one until the next morning because I didn't want to think about it, and I'm sure most of you didn't either. Felix Hernandez had a stiff back. Franklin Gutierrez is in a slump, the old men still aren't hitting, and the Mariners lost again. NEXXXXXXT

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-30-2010 (Texas 2, Seattle 0, 12 innings)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Colby Lewis	3.248	0.000	3.248	0.000	0.000	1.20	27
TEX	Matt Treanor	-0.457	-0.457	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-1.580	-0.960	0.000	-0.620	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	0.122	-0.364	0.000	0.703	-0.217	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	0.094	0.335	0.000	-0.241	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	-0.658	-0.178	0.000	-0.480	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	-0.586	-0.749	0.000	0.163	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	-0.445	-0.591	0.000	0.146	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	0.225	-0.862	0.000	1.087	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ryan Garko	-1.148	-1.148	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	TEX Luckbox	2.555	1.324	0.000	1.231	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	-0.358	0.000	-0.358	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	0.588	-0.095	0.000	0.683	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	-0.098	-0.098	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Darren Oliver	0.174	0.000	0.174	0.000	0.000	0.00	1
TEX	Darren O'Day	0.093	0.000	0.093	0.000	0.000	3.05	2
TEX	Frank Francisco	0.409	0.000	0.409	0.000	0.000	0.80	3
TEX	Neftali Feliz	-0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000	0.000	5.70	3

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	0.240	0.000	0.240	0.000	0.000	3.93	21
SEA	Adam Moore	-0.337	-0.337	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-1.130	-1.275	0.000	0.145	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.033	-0.631	0.000	1.664	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.085	0.083	0.000	0.002	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jack Wilson	-0.518	-0.792	0.000	0.274	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	1.802	0.689	0.000	1.113	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.574	-1.543	0.000	0.969	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	1.618	1.055	0.000	0.563	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.297	-0.297	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.358	0.358	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Eric Byrnes	-1.685	-1.685	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-1.685	-1.204	0.000	0.000	-0.481	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-0.481	0.000	0.000	-0.481	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mark Lowe	0.002	0.000	0.002	0.000	0.000	4.20	3
SEA	David Aardsma	0.360	0.000	0.360	0.000	0.000	1.21	3
SEA	Brandon League	-0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000	0.000	6.51	7
SEA	Sean White	0.276	0.000	0.276	0.000	0.000	0.76	2
	Safeco Field	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Colby Lewis (3.248 pitching NRuns)
Gifts from Mariners mistakes: 2.555 NRuns

Putting the 'suicide' in suicide squeeze: -1.685 NRuns

Welcome to the Sweendawghouse: Mike Sweeney (-1.685 NRuns)

Mariners hitting: -5.579 NRuns

Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, Ichiro and Milton Bradley: 4.693 NRuns
All other Mariners: -6.693 NRuns

******

This game was everything about the 2010 Seattle Mariners in a 12 inning nutshell. They got great pitching and wasted a fine starting pitching performance. They made fine defensive plays. They couldn't score any runs. They made an ordinary starting pitcher look incredible. Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Sweeney made easy outs and showed they have next to nothing left as hitters. Eric Byrnes made people angry. Don Wakamatsu overmanaged and made bad decisions as a result. A reliever took a loss he didn't necessarily deserve. Their opponents did everything to give the game away and the Mariners did them tenfold better to give it right back. We saw Sean White. They kept a winnable game close, but blew every chance they got to take it, and instead found a way to lose it.

Don Wakamatsu only received Net Runs credit for the intentional walk he had Brandon League issue, but if you wanted to give him credit for the bad suicide squeeze call (and given it blew up in part because of bad communication, you could make a case for that), then Wak cost the Mariners 2.109 NRuns, easily the most a manager has cost his team in a single game. As it stands, his total is fairly close to the biggest negative contribution by a manager in a game.

I almost decided to go to this game at Safeco Field tonight. Now I'm glad I didn't.

Colby Lewis: A hidden pitching gem for Texas?

The Rangers aren't just chasing free agent pitchers like Rich Harden. They're also mining Japan for under-the-radar options like Colby Lewis, who has spent the last two seasons with the Hiroshima Carp.

Lewis, drafted in the 38th round of the 1999 draft by the Rangers, came up through the Rangers system and struggled badly after a 2002 callup (34.1 IP, 4 HR, 26 walks, 28 K, 6.29 ERA), as well as in 2003 (127 IP, 23 HR, 70 walks, 88 K, 7.30 ERA) before his shoulder gave out in 2004 and required surgery.

The Tigers picked Lewis up in 2005 and he looked good upon returning in 2006 with AAA Toledo (147.2 IP, 13 HR, 36 walks, 104 K) but he only pitched in two games for the Tigers before being released. The A's picked him up in 2007 and after a solid run in AAA Sacramento (95.2 IP, 8 HR, 23 BB, 97 K) he gave them 26 mostly ugly games (37.2 IP, 7 HR, 14 BB, 23 K, 6.45 ERA) before he said 'screw it' and went to Japan, where he has excelled. In 2008 he threw 178 innings for Hiroshima, allowing only 12 HR and 27 walks while striking out 183. His 2009 was just as good (176.1 IP, 13 HR, 19 BB, 186 K) before health problems with his family compelled him to return stateside.

Given his history of being a AAAA-quality ballplayer that thrives in AAA but flounders in MLB (also note that Sacramento and Oklahoma boast two of the PCL's pitching friendlier home parks), and given that while NPB has improved in quality, the level of play there is still around AAA level (which is in part why guys like Lewis and Seth Gresinger can go over there and dominate)... it's not likely Lewis has gotten all that much better. He certainly rediscovered his ability to throw strikes and avoid walks (the NPB strike zone, BTW, is narrower than the MLB strike zone), which was his single biggest problem as an MLB hurler. If he's a little wiser and a little better, can make the Rangers rotation and hold down a spot, then Mariners and Angels fans may have a bit more to be concerned about.

An updated look at the AL West

Texas - Derek Holland and Luis Mendoza upgrade the bullpen a little, while Scott Feldman is a functional upgrade over the terrible Kris Benson. But this is still the worst pitching staff in the majors. However, the pitching upgrades add a few wins to their projected finish: They're still on track for 90-95 losses.

Seattle - Losing Kenji Johjima to injury wasn't a big downgrade since Johjima as a hitter came close to replacement level anyway. Rob Johnson could even be a hitting upgrade at catcher. Ryan Rowland-Smith may take his time coming back from a bum elbow, which allows Chris Jakubauskas, arguably a superior option as the #5 starter, to ring up more starts before returning to the pen. Seattle still has this division right where they want it, and remain on track for about 85 wins.

Oakland - Adding the replacement level Dan Giese may not prove a productive move, nor may going with eleven pitchers to get Jack Hannahan on the team. Hannahan improves the offense a tad, but dumping lefthander Jerry Blevins doesn't improve the pitching staff. It appears Oakland will ride their six relievers until the need arises to add a 7th, which is generally a sound idea, but Giese was a definite downgrade. Oakland remains on pace for 85-90 losses.

Anaheim - The likely imminent return of Ervin Santana and John Lackey is a huge boost for the Angels, but this is still a sub .500 team with a ton of holes in the bullpen and not enough power in the lineup. The likely chance of getting 200-220 replacement level innings over this season still sinks the Angels, a 75-80 win team.

An educated guess about the AL West for 2009

AL West

1. Seattle Mariners
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers

The AL West is a battle of who wants to lose the least, with two weak .500-ish teams, one bad team, and one not so bad team.

Yes, I predicted the Seattle Mariners would win this division despite projecting them for the worst offense in the AL. No, I’m not making that pick as a Mariners fan and a homer. Their defense should be (despite Yuniesky Betancourt) the best in the AL. Add in an average pitching staff led by Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard, and they can easily steal this division with about 85-90 wins. They will play a lot of low scoring games, they have incorporated that annoying brand of smallball sacrifice and singles baseball that the Angels used to win the last few division titles, and the power arms at the front of their bullpen should lock down most games once they get a lead.

But the real reason they’ll win is because the Angels lost a good deal of talent and did too little to replace it. They don’t play that aforementioned smallball as well as they used to. Even if John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar weren’t injured, the Angels had lost closer Francisco Rodriguez and LF Garret Anderson, replacing them with… Bobby Abreu. Sure, Abreu is a great bat, but his defense is pretty bad in LF and he’s a definite defensive downgrade over the defensively average Anderson. This subtraction by addition helps turn a solid defense into a bad one.

The youngsters stepping up, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales, aren’t all particularly good defenders themselves, downgrading what was once a solid defensive infield. Vlad Guerrero is also getting older and he’s a slug in RF, albeit a slug with a cannon arm. The Angels struggled to reload their once great bullpen, and the injuries to Lackey and Santana (plus Nick Adenhart’s tragic death) have only exacerbated a shaky rotation situation (it was already doubtful we’d ever see Escobar again). After years of assured contention, a .500 season is a distinct possibility, even if Lackey and Santana come back on schedule and pitch well out of the gate all the way to season’s end. They could well hand the Mariners a division title by mid September.

Oakland should hang around 75 wins with a semi-productive lineup (with a lot of holes) and a cavernous home park with a flyball-killing sea breeze to help offset the crappiness of the A’s no name pitching staff. If Justin Duchscherer doesn’t return, Dana Eveland is their ace. Thankfully, while it seems they drew their bullpen’s names out of a hat, it’s a solid unit, and the defense, as always (thanks, Billy Beane) is an overall solid unit. They won’t get embarrassed, but they’re not going to compete.

If and when the Rangers’ up and coming young talent (Chris Davis, Taylor Teagarden, Elvis Andrus and a few others in the minors) develops and supplants the power-hitting mediocrity in front of them, they may have themselves a competitive team. Until then, they’ll have to settle for average defense, horrid pitching (they gave the withered remains of Kris Benson a job!) and a bandbox home park that makes both of those things worse, along with an offense of fading quality that can’t keep up. 90 losses, ahoy!