Saturday, February 9, 2019

The Running Pirates: Out of the Park Baseball, and How I Like To Do It

I play me some Out of the Park Baseball (OOTP), and in my current version I took over the 2017 Pittsburgh Pirates, a middling team lacking direction and at a competitive crossroads.

I've now gotten used to building teams in OOTP around my aggressive running, defense-oriented style, dealing away expensive vets and bringing in lower cost, shorter term guys that fit my mold while acquiring and developing prospects who do the same.

Sure enough I've quickly turned the Pirates into a dangerous 100 win team with a low payroll.

Here's my strategy:



Hitting, or more specifically, Baserunning:
- When there's a man on 1st, we're run + hitting almost every time. Basically, we're stealing as long as the runner has an above average ability to steal bases (which on my team he usually does).
- When there's men on 1st/2nd, and the runner on 2nd is a good base stealer, we're double stealing almost every time regardless of the ability of the trailing runner. It usually works and even the lead-footingest runners get about 5-10 steals a year on my team because of this.
- We don't ever hit and run, but we do run and hit: Here, the runner looks to steal on a pitch and gives the hitter discretion on whether or not to swing.
- On a 0-ball count, the runner is given a straight steal sign instead of the run and hit.
- On a 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, or any 3-ball count, we run and hit. A pitchout on any of these counts may doom the runner but will give us a very good count or another baserunner.
- The Run and Hit is used in other counts at my discretion. Often, we just do it anyway and it just usually works.
- Unless he's a top hitter, the slowest runner in the lineup bats in front of the pitcher. This way, if he gets on with fewer than two outs, the pitcher can bunt him over.

The only times we won't aggressively steal:
- Our only runner is on 1st and either a pitcher or not a good runner.
- We're ahead by a lot late in the game and there's little value to padding the lead.
- The opposing catcher has a very good arm and we only have one baserunner.

- We realize we give away many baserunners caught stealing, and we run ourselves out of some innings. The number of steals and extra runs we produce running this aggressively is considered worth the collateral damage. My team scores about 5-6 runs a game, so if your metrics say we're costing ourselves runs... Scoreboard.
- On a base hit with a runner rounding 3rd and the ball in the OF, we almost always send the runner home instead of holding him at 3rd regardless of the quality of the outfielder's arm. Even with a below average runner, we usually score. The runner has to be incredibly slow and/or the outfielder has to have a laser cannon of an arm for us to consider holding the runner at 3rd.

Defense:
- Every fielder must be rated average or better at his position. Typically we expect at least 55 defense on a 20-80 scale for a regular.
- Defensively, we shift every pull hitter. In DP situations, the infield plays regular DP depth but the outfield shifts, and we will hold the runner if he's a steal threat.
- We'll shift but guard 3B vs a LH pull hitter who can bunt.
- Even against a normal hitter, we usually weak-shift the infield to the hitter's pull side.
- We sub in defensive improvements in the final 1-3 innings, depending on the hitting prowess of the fielder to be subbed out.
- If we're about to pull a pitcher and he comes up to bat with 2 outs and the bases empty in the mid/late innings of a tight game, we'll let him bat and punt the PA rather than wasting a potentially valuable pinch hitter in a spot with a 0.1 run expectancy, especially if his reliever will be expected to work multiple innings. (P.S. Those of you who support the DH in the NL... I honestly wouldn't mind it in these situations)

Pitching:
- Pitchers must have average or better scouted control. Keeping walks low is our top pitching priority.
- Our pitchers never intentionally walk anyone.
- Absolutely no fastballs to a pitcher batting with a runner on 1st, unless he has two strikes and will likely swing away. Don't make it easy for him to bunt. Breaking and offspeed pitches are harder to get down.
- The starting pitcher's goal is to get through the lineup 3 times. Our rule is to pull the SP after a max of 110 pitches or 27 batters, whichever comes first. He may face another 1-2 batters beyond that on an incidental basis. If tired but he has 2 outs and we think he can get out of the inning, we may let him try to finish the inning.
- We have a 6 man rotation... sort of. We have one swingman who is a technically a 6th starter but is used as a reliever when it's clear he won't be needed during the current rotation turn (which is usually). This can be a great spot for a young pitcher with good stuff who struggles with his control, or struggles to get through a lineup more than twice.
- We may also do the same relief deal for the 5th starter if we have days off and can skip the 5th slot in a rotation turn.
- The rotation does not follow a strict order. SPs are sorted based on their performance with the highest rested starter going next. This usually keeps the pitchers in a particular order, but pitchers can leapfrog one another in the order depending on how they pitch, rest, and days off.
- We technically have a 6 man bullpen, but with our use of the back end starters as swing-relievers, it's more like 7-8. Generally, we like to have 4 relievers who can work longer and 2 shorter relievers who could setup or pass for closers on most teams. Ideally, several of our relievers have the stamina to be starters or are former starters.
- Our bullpen is purely by committee. No one has a sole dedicated role, or can solely expect to pitch in particular innings or situations. We may use short men in middle innings if it makes sense, or a longer-reliever to close a game. That said, shorter relief guys generally get the conventional 3 out saves, and longer guys work longer, middle relief or mop up situations.
- We avoid pitching relievers when they're tired or have thrown back to back games. In a fireman situation, if we feel he's well-suited to get 1-2 crucial outs, we may go ahead and throw him there. Usually, these pitchers rest.

We vulture saves whenever possible:
- If ahead by a lot, we'll put in a longer reliever after 6 innings and ask him to finish the last 3 innings for the long save.
- If a reliever enters in the 7th-8th with a 1-3 run lead and we pull ahead by 4+, we'll ask the reliever to finish the game for the save.
- This save-padding is largely to add morale and value for future contracts or trades. GM's and agents tend not to be bright about counting stats like this.
- If a long man's attempting a long save but the game gets back into a 1-3 run save situation, we'll sub in a conventional short reliever for a conventional save.

- When possible we try and get multiple innings out of relievers. The only time we make a mid-inning pitching change is if a pitcher runs out of gas or is otherwise struggling. We deploy for matchups on an inning-to-inning due-up basis, not a batter-to-batter basis.
- We double switch liberally. We try and place the pitcher in the slot that just batted or close to it, if we can sub in a decent player at that position in the prior pitcher's slot.

Personnel:
- Once I took over we quickly dealt anyone who is older, not a particularly good fielder, or expensive over a long term... never minding the expense of short term damage to player morale or fan interest. I took a bath of fire trading Andrew McCutchen and his crappy defense ASAP to the Cubs for Javy Baez and prospects. We actually made that trade during a series at Wrigley! "Happy trails, Cutch. Your new team is down the hall. Tell Javy he can come over when he's ready."
- With trades we seek to add either add unproven potential MLB regulars, pricier quality veteran discards (the Cubs offered Javy when we shopped Cutch, so the AI was looking to trade him), or prospects that display upside plus qualities we value: Control and stamina for pitchers, or speed, defense, contact and plate discipline for hitters.
- We generally trade by shopping a player and seeing who is offered, rather than reaching out to try and land a specific player. We'll then seek to add opposing players of value to an established trade proposal where applicable.
- We'll generally look to quickly deal (or add to a deal) any prospects of value who are unhappy, or who don't appear to have long term potential with the organization (whether they're blocked, they're not good fielders or have other substantial shortcomings that inhibit their role on our MLB team).
- We don't try to fill all 40 spots on the 40 man roster right away. We leave 5-10 spots open at the start of the year to provide the freedom to add desired callups or optionable acquisitions.
- We draft by talent early and by tools late. We often end up picking a lot of hitters in early rounds and a lot of pitchers in later rounds.
- We don't mind picking multiple guys in the Rule 5 any more than we mind skipping it. The team I currently have is pretty much what I want but in a rebuild situation I'll often try and get a bullpen arm, maybe a useful bench player.

Minors:
- Every affiliate should have 14+ batters and 13+ pitchers. Ideally a team has 14-15 available pitchers. I don't mind overloading a team in the short run, but eventually I want upside guys or productive players playing regularly.
- Every MiLB manager is ordered to not intentionally walk or pitch around hitters, to avoid bunting, and not to hit and run. Each given hitter should steal or not steal based on his ability. Managers are usually advised to set lineups in order from the top performing hitters on top to the weakest performing hitters at the bottom. We don't care if the leadoff guy can't steal or if the middle of the order doesn't hit dingers. We mostly care if guys consistently hit and field well.
- The only hitters who are allowed to bunt are hitters who have struggled through 100+ PA, and only according to his skill at bunting. Hitters who are weak at bunting will never be asked to bunt.
- Any hitter or pitcher who is even mildly injured is benched until healed.
- While we seek to play prospects regularly, we spread playing time across the board to start the year and try to regularly play hitters who perform the best at a given level.
- Defensive subs are often used starting in the 7th inning with a lead. This not only helps the relief corps, but allows for a possible PA for the subs since these players aren't getting regular starts.
- Ideally, every player gets 1-2 early season starts at every position he has demonstrated an ability to play.
- We mostly worry about positional fit once a player gets to the AAA level. Either way, if there's no long-term potential MLB fit, we look to deal him.
- Similarly, after our top SPs at each level make 2-3 early season starts, we'll move them to the bullpen and use lesser-used relievers as extended 'openers' for a couple weeks to get everyone some extended work, and help preserve the starters. After every pitcher on the staff has logged about 10 innings, we slot starting pitchers based on performance. The best pitchers start. The next best pitchers are asked to setup and close. Those who don't do well as starters work out of the bullpen. Some top relievers may continue to get used as openers, and over time may stretch out into full time starters.
- Any pitcher who is tired is shelved until he is fully rested. This spreads out the workload to other relievers.
- Even if a player is best suited for short season A ball, we may start his season in full season A ball to keep him active and get him some work if his tools indicate he can handle it, or the A ball teams have a need he can fulfill in the short run. Unless he performs well, he'll be sent back to short season ball once those seasons begin.
- Unhappy players who have no trade value or organizational upside are released.
- When making MLB trades, we sometimes look to have other teams throw in quality non-prospects if they meet a particular affiliate's needs, allow for better placement of other org players at that position (if everyone in the org is playing above their ideal level due to affiliate needs and talent limitations), or have other MLB-level upside that isn't seen by that org or scouts.
- If a player reaches an age older than most others at a given level, and he's not performing at his given level, we may release him rather than send him down, unless he can be traded or can be suitably added to a trade.

Would I recommend this approach?

It's fun, but do whatever you want.

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