Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-11-2010 (San Diego 4, Seattle 3)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	1.048	-0.664	1.615	0.097	0.000	0.92	18
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-0.384	-0.384	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-1.123	-1.289	0.000	0.166	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-1.043	-0.474	0.000	-0.569	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.463	-0.829	0.000	1.292	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.275	0.511	0.000	-0.236	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	1.972	1.457	0.000	0.360	0.155	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.969	0.730	0.000	-1.699	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-1.922	0.178	0.000	-2.100	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-0.342	0.360	-0.702	0.000	0.000	11.96	2
SEA	Michael Saunders	-0.125	-0.125	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Shawn Kelley	0.865	0.000	0.865	0.000	0.000	-4.05	3
SEA	Brandon League	0.352	0.000	0.255	0.097	0.000	1.04	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.587	0.398	0.000	0.189	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.668	-0.084	-0.584	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SDP	Kevin Correia	-1.182	-1.061	-0.121	0.000	0.000	3.34	18
SDP	Nick Hundley	-1.865	-1.467	0.000	-0.398	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Adrian Gonzalez	0.653	0.822	0.000	0.000	-0.169	0.00	0
SDP	David Eckstein	-0.415	-0.076	0.000	-0.339	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chase Headley	0.498	-0.138	0.000	0.636	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Jerry Hairston	0.189	0.137	0.000	0.052	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Scott Hairston	2.102	-0.228	0.000	2.330	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Tony Gwynn	0.809	1.891	0.000	-1.082	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chris Denorfia	-0.445	-0.077	0.000	-0.368	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Will Venable	0.360	0.360	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Joe Thatcher	0.019	0.000	0.019	0.000	0.000	3.01	3
SDP	Aaron Cunningham	-0.169	-0.169	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Ryan Webb	0.574	0.000	0.574	0.000	0.000	0.78	6
SDP	SDP Luckbox	1.042	0.958	0.000	0.084	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Bud Black	-0.189	-0.189	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Petco Park	0.967	0.000	0.000	-0.967	0.000	0.00	0.380

Player of the Game: Scott Hairston (2.102 NRuns: -0.228 hitting, 2.330 fielding)
Padres Luckbox: 1.042 NRuns

Runs given away by Mariners intentional walks: 0.584

Mariners Player of the Game: Milton Bradley (1.972 NRuns: 1.457 hitting, 0.360 fielding, 0.155 running)

David Aardsma: -0.702 NRuns (11.96 EXERA)
Rest of Mariners pitching: 2.735 NRuns (2.75 EXERA)
Jason Vargas: 1.615 pitching NRuns (0.92 EXERA)

Mariners outfield defense: -3.439 NRuns

Goat: Ichiro (-1.922 NRuns: 0.178 hitting, -2.100 fielding)

******

You can't chalk David Aardsma's meltdown and eventual walkoff loss to bad luck: A leadoff line drive, a hit batter, a flyball and (following Wak's intentional walk call) the fatal flyball. Aardsma lives and dies on the edge with his wild and flyball prone pitching, and once again this time it killed the Mariners.

Ichiro is not the defender he used to be.

Milton Bradley's had games like this before only to disappear for yet another long stretch, but boy did he need the big game at the plate he had today: Three hits, including a home run.

Don't get too excited about Jason Vargas' great day. It was a truly good game, but line drives and walks in Petco Park tend to count for little damage since the park plays so well for pitchers. However, strikeouts with runners on are huge, and Vargas got two big ones in the bottom 4th with men on 2nd and 3rd (1.182 NRuns total) to get out of trouble.

On ideas about the 2011 Mariners

Dave Cameron's piece on retooling for 2011 offered some interesting food for thought.

Dave proposed a couple of wire-level pickups:

Chris Resop: Yeah, he would be a great piece to pick up and test drive, but with the Braves leading the NL East and definitely looking at a postseason return, plus two late 30's pitchers in their rotation (Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami) coming with a significant non-zero injury risk, along with a converted reliever (Kris Medlen) filling in for a currently injured young starter (Jair Jurrjens) who was already struggling before his DL trip, and their other fringe rotation options struggling at AAA (Jo-Jo Reyes, James Parr)... what if the Braves consider Resop a valuable piece of rotation insurance?

They wouldn't need Resop as a starter in October with a playoff-shortened rotation. But if one of the old men hits the DL during the regular season, if Jurrjens doesn't get back up to speed and/or if Medlen comes back to Earth and looks more like a reliever-quality arm (or gets hurt himself), they might need Resop's arm in the rotation, and his excellent work in AAA probably isn't lost on the Braves front office even if he's not on their 25 man roster.

Resop has a clause in his contract that says he's got to get called up by 6/15 this season or get released. But with Jesse Chavez struggling in the Braves pen, no assurances that Cristhian Martinez will be a useful reliever over the long term, a host of young option-able arms in the pen that could possibly unravel, and the elephant in the room of the two veteran starters (Lowe and Kawakami) struggling, I'm not convinced the Braves consider Resop as disposable as he'd need to be to make for an easy flier pickup.

Kila Ka’aihue and Alex Gordon: Gordon is admittedly an if-pickup in Cameron's scenario, but his focus is on Ka'aihue, who is admittedly a more do-able pickup. The question is whether the Royals would be keen on unloading him for a low price. They didn't mind unloading Dan Cortes and Derrick Saito from their system for Yuniesky Betancourt, but Cortes and Saito were young pitchers in a system full of them.

Ka'aihue, even rotting away in AAA, could be of use to the Royals down the road, and is only blocked because of the likes of Billy Butler and Jose Guillen. Guillen's most likely gone after this season, which could open up a spot at 1B or DH. Kansas City's not the brightest bulb in the box when it comes to talent assembly but they have to be mindful that Ka'aihue could help their team next year. It's going to take a more valuable piece than just a junk prospect or two to pry him away.

Both proposed ideas are predicated on the acquisition pieces being disposable assets to their respective teams, but a closer look indicates they may not be as disposable as it currently seems.

******

As for re-tooling the roster... there are 15 potential spots for an upgrade, but many of them are easy to fill.

Despite the M's struggles with the bullpen this season, a good bullpen is fairly easy to assemble and re-tool: Between failed starters and relievers with a hot fastball or a single fine out pitch, a lot of league-minimum guys offer potential to fill the spot. You do what most teams do: Go get a bunch of arms, put the best ones on the 25 man and stash the rest in AAA in case the audition winners don't cut it and/or guys get hurt. Closer is not as difficult a role to fill as many think: Incumbent David Aardsma was a waiver trade pickup that won an open audition for the role in 2009. If you think you need to replace him, an open audition among 4-5 qualified relievers can easily produce a guy that can get three outs in the 9th with a 1-3 run lead 30-40 times in a year.

The bench is always easy to assemble because the sort of parts you need to fill it (backup catcher, modular infielder, modular outfielder, pinch hit bats) typically only need to be a bit better than AAAA quality and thus the roles are cheap and easy to fill. Thus of the 15 given question marks, eight should not be terribly difficult to fill or at least address with a workable solution that doesn't significantly hurt the team.

As for the rotation, if we buy the notion that true #5 starters don't exist (and I can), then you only really need to fill one of the two open rotation slots with a genuinely good pitcher. It depends on how short you think Jason Vargas and Doug Fister fall of filling the #3 slot in the rotation, if an audition for the #5 role doesn't somehow produce a superior candidate.

Really, you don't need five strong starting pitchers... probably one or two good to great pitchers, one or two decent/average/useful starters and then an okay guy to round out the 5 slot with the understanding that the owner of this slot can and probably will fluctuate. The need to fill two spots is predicated on thinking of Vargas and Fister as back-end or replacement level arms... and that depends on your impression of their work this season. I don't consider either one anything resembling an ace, but both can be and have been mostly reliable starters (Fister's shoulder fatigue notwithstanding). You can focus on upgrading one rotation slot and then, like the bench and bullpen, assemble an audition of talent to fill the #5 slot while stashing alternatives in AAA Tacoma (if the minor league system hasn't produced potential alternatives by then).

We can agree the lineup needs to be upgraded. One or two additional lineup upgrades isn't an impossibility. From there, if supply and money make upgrading other spots infeasible, you can take fliers on guys or have the incumbents continue in those roles until you can upgrade. The easiest spots to upgrade on this roster are catcher, 1B and DH. These spots can probably get upgraded at an affordable cost or even filled by flier-type acquisitions. Shortstop and 3B aren't going to be as easy to address: Good players at either position don't come cheap. How you fill LF depends on how much you value hitting and defense. An incumbent could fill the role provided his shortcomings aren't in an area you highly value.

So while the team has a lot of potential upgrade spots, the situation isn't as dire as it seems at first glance. Even if many of the 2010 underperformers can be expected to continue to underperform, a lot of the potential openings are fairly easy to fill, meaning the M's should be able to focus their resources on filling the other needed roles.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-10-2010 (Texas 12, Seattle 3)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-4.008	0.000	-4.008	0.000	0.000	11.09	17
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.229	-0.781	0.000	1.061	-0.509	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	-0.971	0.104	0.000	-1.075	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.585	1.341	0.000	-0.756	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.477	-1.131	0.000	1.608	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-3.642	-0.996	0.000	-2.646	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	1.798	0.489	0.000	1.309	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.263	-0.902	0.000	0.639	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.187	0.432	0.000	-0.352	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-1.486	-1.486	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Shawn Kelley	-0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000	0.000	7.73	3
SEA	Garrett Olson	0.154	0.000	0.154	0.000	0.000	3.90	3
SEA	Brandon League	0.064	0.000	0.064	0.000	0.000	3.59	1
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.734	0.734	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Tommy Hunter	-1.093	0.000	-1.093	0.000	0.000	6.71	18
TEX	Matt Treanor	0.043	0.150	0.000	-0.107	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	1.205	1.205	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	-2.018	-0.440	0.000	-0.672	-0.906	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	1.931	1.507	0.000	0.424	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	-0.026	-0.987	0.000	0.961	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	3.354	1.920	0.000	1.434	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	-1.104	1.209	0.000	-1.568	-0.745	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	2.293	0.329	0.000	1.857	0.107	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	2.102	2.102	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Frank Francisco	0.316	0.000	0.316	0.000	0.000	2.55	3
TEX	Darren O'Day	0.239	0.000	0.239	0.000	0.000	3.20	3
TEX	Darren Oliver	0.622	0.000	0.622	0.000	0.000	0.00	3
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.369	-0.369	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	-0.082	-0.267	0.000	0.185	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	-0.209	-0.209	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	TEX Luckbox	2.418	2.418	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	2.718	0.000	0.000	-2.718	0.000	0.00	0.622

Player of the Game: Josh Hamilton (3.354 NRuns: 1.920 hitting, 1.434 pitching)
Texas Luckbox: 2.418 NRuns

Rangers with more than 2.000 NRuns: 3 (Hamilton, Guerrero, Murphy)

Rob Johnson's defense: 1.061 NRuns
Josh Wilson's defense: -2.646 NRuns

Ichiro at DH: -1.486 NRuns

Mariners Player of the Game: Michael Saunders (1.798 NRuns: 0.489 hitting, 1.309 fielding)

Goat: Ryan Rowland-Smith (-4.008 pitching NRuns... 11.09 EXERA)

******

One item deserves comment: Brandon League's meltdown was not Brandon League's fault. Of the six batters he faced in his 4th run 6th inning appearance (after he entered with two outs), four hit groundballs, one struck out and one hit a line drive. And the line drive came after back to back to back groundballs, any of which could have been converted into the 3rd out to end the frame. Instead, Rangers batters reached on all three, two of which beat SS Josh Wilson.

For any and all help that Josh Wilson has provided at the plate, his defense at SS has been fairly bad, and Jack Wilson's return would likely upgrade the fielding at that position. Wilson is not a long term solution at SS, not because of his hitting (which it turns out might actually be useful) but because you don't want his relative lack of range at SS everyday if you're a defense-first team.

So in any case, many will point to this outing as a Brandon League meltdown, but Brandon League pitched fine. His defense let him down, and Ryan Rowland-Smith did far more to give the game away early with one of his worst pitching performances in what's been a pretty bad season for the embattled Aussie.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-9-2010 (Texas 12, Seattle 2)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ian Snell	-2.382	0.000	-2.686	0.304	0.000	18.63	5
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-3.391	-1.569	0.000	-1.822	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-0.228	0.421	0.000	-0.649	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.102	-0.570	0.000	0.468	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.305	0.289	0.000	-0.594	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	1.493	0.964	0.000	0.529	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-1.182	-0.757	0.000	-0.425	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-1.492	-1.075	0.000	-0.417	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.421	-0.405	0.000	0.826	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.190	0.154	0.000	0.000	-0.344	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	1.112	-0.870	0.000	1.982	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Luke French	-1.211	0.000	-1.211	0.000	0.000	7.08	16
SEA	Sean White	-0.749	0.000	-0.749	0.000	0.000	11.44	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.164	0.164	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	CJ Wilson	-3.571	0.000	-3.571	0.000	0.000	9.45	21
TEX	Max Ramirez	-0.957	-0.818	0.000	-0.165	0.026	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-0.928	-0.393	0.000	-0.535	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	2.205	1.873	0.000	0.332	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	1.664	1.664	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	-0.191	-1.295	0.000	1.104	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	2.056	2.256	0.000	-0.200	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	3.440	0.965	0.000	2.475	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	5.311	1.050	0.000	4.261	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	1.310	1.712	0.000	0.000	-0.402	0.00	0
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.286	-0.286	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	-0.209	-0.209	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	0.652	0.000	0.000	0.652	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Dustin Nippert	-1.209	0.000	-1.209	0.000	0.000	12.75	4
TEX	Neftali Feliz	0.454	0.000	0.454	0.000	0.000	-0.49	2
TEX	TEX Luckbox	0.881	0.881	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	2.580	0.000	0.000	-2.580	0.000	0.00	0.622

Player of the Game: David Murphy (5.311 NRuns: 1.050 hitiing, 4.261 fielding)

Josh Hamilton: 2.056 NRuns
Julio Borbon: 3.440 NRuns
Ian Kinsler: 2.205 NRuns
Michael Young: 1.664 NRuns
Vlad Guerrero: 1.310 NRuns

Rangers hitting: 6.519 NRuns
Rangers pitching: -4.326 NRuns

Mariners hitting: -3.418 NRuns
Mariners pitching: -4.646 NRuns
Mariners infield defense: -1.764 NRuns

Goat: Eliezer Alfonzo (-3.391 NRuns: -1.569 hitting, -1.822 catching)
Dishonorable mention: Ian Snell (-2.382 NRuns: -2.686 pitching, 18.63 EXERA, 0.304 fielding)

******

Dave Cameron's expecting a DFA for Ian Snell tomorrow morning, and... well... I can't really defend Snell at this point.

With Luke French looking fairly poor himself, I wonder who you would call up to replace Snell. Do you go with French in the rotation and maybe get another reliever (Brian Sweeney?). Do you go and get one of the other fringe starters (Chris Seddon, Steven Shell)?

Don't know, don't particularly care. This game sucked and this team sucks. Ryan Langerhans saved like two runs in the field during his two innings of work, though. All the good it did.

Last night, Stephen Strasburg assured he's going to be a disappointment

... wait, what?

No, last night wasn't disappointing by any means. Last night a young and undisciplined Pittsburgh Pirates lineup spent seven innings getting played like a piano by Stephen Strasburg. And Strasburg didn't even get a lot of help from the home plate umpire, who was actually squeezing Strasburg on pitch calls quite a bit during the early innings. Strasburg got the Pirates to swing and miss pitches in the zone and got them to chase crisp breaking pitches out of the zone, ringing up 14 incredible strikeouts over 7 strong (to say the least) innings. Why would I claim disappointment is coming?

First, let's look down the road at his next potential outings.

- He's probably going to have another great game in 4 days at Cleveland during interleague play because the Indians are also awful.

- The White Sox come to DC after that, many of the ChiSox power bats are somewhat neutered outside of their bandbox home park and a lot of their mid-level bats are hackers.

- Then the Royals come to DC and the Nats will probably get him a home start versus yet another weak, hacktastic lineup.

- Then he goes to Atlanta's pitching friendly Turner Field and gets a relatively power-limp Braves lineup. It's here where he'll face his first actual test, as Atlanta currently leads the NL in walks plus has the 4th fewest strikeouts at the plate in the NL.

What's probably going to happen is Strasburg is going to throw two more terrific games, possibly a third against a somewhat respected (read: overrated) ChiSox lineup, building his already bloated hype machine as he did pitching against weakish Mountain West lineups in San Diego State's very pitcher-friendly home park during college.

But we're not going to see how relatively good Strasburg is until he offers his stuff to real, average-level MLB lineups laden with selective hitters, and he's not going to see one until he faces the Braves late this month.

The Nats planned the timing of his debut perfectly. The timing wasn't so much about starting his service time clock at the right time or controlling arb years, because they're just going to buy those out in a couple years by offering him a ridiculous contract to lock him up through his prime, as other teams have with their young phenoms (like Justin Upton with the D-Backs and Evan Longoria with the Rays). It wasn't even about ensuring several home starts: That could have been timed on several occasions during this season, and if it was about maximizing gate revenue they would have added him to the roster a month or two ago. Strasburg's hype would have assured a sellout in early April.

No, Washington's timing of Strasburg's debut was about ensuring his first starts came against crappy, beatable lineups that were easy for a talented pitcher to dominate. Instead of throwing him to the wolves and risking an up and down beginning that would undercut the hype around their now-franchise pitcher, they give him the best chance to come out looking dominant and make him look every bit like the pitcher he was hyped by everyone in the media, scouting community and blogosphere to be.

So how is he going to disappoint people? Pretty simple. As the season wears on, other teams are going to assemble scouting data on Strasburg, figure out how to attack him and maximize their chances of hitting and getting on base against him. Last night the Pirates were mostly blind squirrels, in part because they hadn't really seen Strasburg before and in part because, well, most of them aren't very disciplined hitters. Cleveland's hitters will likely suffer the same fate, as will Kansas City's.

Some of Atlanta's players will run into the same problem: Their rookie phenom Jason Heyward has struck out in over 21% of his plate appearances, not terrible but indicative that a deceptive power pitcher like Strasburg could own him. Veteran Troy Glaus has struck out in 20% of his PAs. If Nate McLouth (22% K's) plays, he could get owned. But everyone else in that lineup is fairly good at working the count AND avoiding the K. The key will be if Strasburg can induce a ton of groundballs if he doesn't rack up the K's.

And from there, Strasburg's opposition will get tougher. He gets the Mets at home to start July, and while they struggled early this season, they've got some good veteran hitters (David Wright, Jose Reyes, a surging Angel Pagan... and they might get Carlos Beltran back) that have seen the likes of power pitchers like Strasburg before and aren't going to be intimidated. Ditto with the Giants, who don't exactly have a vaunted lineup but do have a lineup of disciplined, productive veteran hitters (Bengie Molina, Juan Uribe, Aaron Rowand, Aubrey Huff et al) that aren't going to surrender like the Pirates did yesterday.

The tradeoff of the Nats giving Strasburg a soft landing is that, in dominating weaker lineups, Strasburg's going to elevate expectations so high that even if he does alright against better lineups and/or lineups that know when to attack him and when to back off, it's going to be deflating for fans when those outings aren't ownership-claiming 14 strikeout outings. That isn't fair, because Strasburg again could be effective against better lineups, but he will rarely if ever again be as good as he was yesterday and likely will be during his first 3-4 Major League starts.

Stephen Strasburg is good. Unfortunately, last night didn't tell us too much about exactly HOW good he is, other than he can dominate bad, intimidated lineups. A lot of good pitchers can dominate bad, intimidated lineups. Let's see how many batters Stephen Strasburg strikes out once the book's out on him and he's facing good MLB hitters that can get around on a 98 mph fastball and take pitches out of the zone. If he strikes out 14 batters against a lineup like the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals or L.A. Dodgers, then I'll cream my pants with the rest of the saber-fanboys. But I doubt he's going to do that well even in his prime. He might have more days like yesterday... if he faces more bad, dominable lineups like that Pirates lineup.

Meanwhile, I don't foresee him throwing every start as good as that debut, which went as perfectly as the Nats could have hoped... mainly because of how well they timed his debut and who they threw him against. And now that Strasburg's shown people a performance beyond many's wild imaginations, he's ensured he'll never live up to the hype that casual fans have bought into. What we saw last night, and what we may see over the next 2-3 starts, is an exceptional deviation from what he will bring to the table.

That is, unless...

a) Umpires bring the LeBron Rule to MLB, and start giving him superstar strike calls on pitches off the plate to help appease the hype MLB and the media have placed on him. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens and many other stars can thank umpires for a few hundred extra career strikeouts netted in part from marginally wider star pitcher strike zones.

b) He gets hurt. Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets... many a phenom came out of the gates fast only to stumble headlong into obscurity once the injuries piled up. We have no assurance Strasburg will remain healthy and sharp even if the Nats are careful about deploying him.

Or...

c) He gets hit in one or more of his next three starts, which should in itself bring expectations back to Earth. (I'm not expecting it, though)

Anyway, I wouldn't pencil in Strasburg for 470 strikeouts a year. Or even 300. Let's see him strike out a few lineups with guys like Chase Utley and Manny Ramirez first... or at least a few lineups with better hitters than Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones.

In all likelihood, however, he's never going to be as good as he was last night, not over 32-34 starts a season. Analysts certainly wouldn't expect that, but a lot of casual fans might. And they're in for a letdown, even if Strasburg goes on to a Hall of Fame career.

Also, check out the Net Runs data for Strasburg's debut.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-8-2010 (Texas 7, Seattle 1)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	-0.621	0.000	-0.621	0.000	0.000	6.05	18
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.071	1.169	0.000	0.000	-1.098	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	-0.658	-1.519	0.000	0.861	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.732	-0.346	0.000	-0.386	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.904	-0.071	0.000	-0.833	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.435	-1.296	0.000	0.861	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-2.584	-0.332	0.000	-2.386	0.134	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.479	0.582	0.000	0.866	0.031	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.321	-1.317	0.000	0.996	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-1.280	-1.280	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Garrett Olson	0.200	0.000	0.200	0.000	0.000	3.52	3
SEA	Chad Cordero	-0.112	0.000	-0.112	0.000	0.000	6.12	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.745	0.745	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Colby Lewis	-1.174	0.000	-1.200	0.026	0.000	6.62	21
TEX	Max Ramirez	0.404	-0.560	0.000	0.964	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	2.590	1.390	0.000	1.200	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	0.314	-0.243	0.000	0.557	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	-1.210	-1.210	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	1.555	1.865	0.000	-0.310	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	1.683	1.603	0.000	0.080	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	1.270	-1.284	0.000	2.554	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	0.595	0.315	0.000	0.280	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	-0.008	-0.008	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.369	-0.369	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Chris Ray	0.131	0.000	0.131	0.000	0.000	4.10	3
TEX	Darren O'Day	0.316	0.000	0.316	0.000	0.000	2.55	3
TEX	TEX Luckbox	0.525	0.525	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	1.470	0.000	0.000	-1.470	0.000	0.00	0.622

Player of the Game: Justin Smoak (2.590 NRuns: 1.390 hitting, 1.200 fielding)
Rangers with over 1.000 NRuns: 4 (Smoak, Andrus, Hamilton, Borbon)
Rangers defense: 5.351 NRuns

Mariners defnese: -0.021 NRuns
Positive Mariners contributions: 3 (Johnson, Gutierrez, Olson)
Negative Mariners contributions: 10

Goat: Michael Saunders (-2.584 NRuns: -0.332 hitting, -2.386 fielding, 0.134 running)

******

This was a "Just in case you thought Cliff Lee's complete game gave the M's any momentum" game.

One note about this game: Felix's first five innings were TERRIFIC. Felix saved about 1.904 NRuns (2.17 EXERA) through five... and then the wheels flew right off in the 6th: A hit batter, a walk and three line drives in a three run inning for the Rangers. Saunders getting played like a piano on that two out two run double by Elvis Andrus sure didn't help, but it's like Felix just flipped a switch before the top 6th and became a tomato can. Usually the M's watch the bullpen blow games... it's not everyday that a top starter like Felix would come out and blow his own game by himself.

Whether or not it worked yesterday, hitting Milton Bradley 2nd sure didn't work today (-1.280 hitting NRuns), but then again nobody for the M's (save for Franklin Gutierrez, and Rob Johnson of all people) was hitting today. Mike Carp (-1.519), Josh Wilson (-1.296) and Ichiro (-1.317) also had notably bad days at the plate.

Factoids on the first four rounds of the MLB draft

1. Since drafting Joe Mauer 1st overall in 2001 the Minnesota Twins have had 16 1st round selections thanks to Type A and B compensation, and have whiffed on all but two of those: Only Denard Span (2002), Matt Garza (2005) and Glen Perkins (2004) have seen serious time in the Majors. Perkins turned out rather ordinary while Garza didn't hit his stride until he was traded to Tampa Bay and only now is Span paying dividends after a ton of time in the minors.

Even the woebegone Pirates, notorious for whiffing on high picks, managed to get six of their picks in the 2000's to the bigs, and once Brad Lincoln gets an expected callup sometime this year that will make it seven.

2. In back to back years, the Yankees drafted players in the 2nd round who didn't sign and went on to prominent football careers. In 1981 they burned their 2nd rounder on an OF named John Elway, and in 1982 they spent a 2nd round pick on a high school SS named Bo Jackson. The latter of course comes with an obvious caveat: Bo Jackson would become a two sport star at Auburn University and eventually get drafted in the 4th round of the 1986 draft by the Kansas City Royals, going on to a famous dual career with the Royals and football's Los Angeles Raiders.

3. You'd be hard pressed to find a team that drafted more MLB value in the 3rd round than the Texas Rangers, but sadly most of that value paid off for other teams.

Dean Palmer (1986) would go on to a solid career with the Detroit Tigers. Scott Podsednik (1994) would eventually break in with the Mariners, see his first regular action with the Brewers and go on to win a World Series with the White Sox. Ryan Dempster (1995) broke in with the Marlins and has since gone on to a productive career with the Cubs. And their biggest 3rd round prize, Barry Zito (1998), did most of his damage as a star for the rival Oakland Athletics.

The only 3rd rounder the Rangers picked who became a solid player under their watch? Darren Oliver (1988) became a productive pitcher for them during the 1990's, and at age 39 is coincidentally with them today as their top lefthanded reliever.

4. The 4th round is where the percentage of eventual MLBers really drops. But the Angels had the most prolific stretch of 4th rounders prior to 1996, producing 16 players that would eventually reach the bigs out of 30 4th round selections. Key regulars from this stretch included catcher Brian Harper, pitchers Mike Witt and Kirk McCaskill, and LF Garret Anderson. But since 1995, only one of their 4th round picks has reached the bigs, and the one that did got away: Brian Matusz passed on the Angels offer, went to college and eventually got drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in 2008.

Prolifically barren histories include the aforementioned Pirates, who of their 45 selections only produced 8 players who eventually saw MLB time, and of those eight only Jeff Keppinger (2001), Wes Chamberlain (1987) and pitcher Stew Cliburn (1977) would become MLB regulars for any real length of time. The Brewers only produced 7 major leaguers from 43 picks, and none of those picks produced more than 0.5 WAR over their careers. Granted, one of those MLBers was the late Josh Hancock, who died in a car wreck very early in his career with the Cardinals, and the jury's out on 2005 pick Mat Gamel.

The greatest 4th round pick of all time had to come from the Oakland A's in 1976, when they burned the 96th overall pick on a local outfielder from Technical HS named Rickey Henderson.

The Dodgers had the most interesting stretch of 4th rounders. After drafting eventual catcher Steve Yeager in 1967, the Dodgers had 19 consecutive 4th round picks between 1970-1989 that never played a game in the big leagues. Following that, 9 of their next 13 4th round selections would go on to play in the Majors, though none ever became a productive regular. Since 2003 none of their 4th rounders have reached the Majors.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-7-2010 (Seattle 4, Texas 2)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	2.510	0.000	3.035	-0.525	0.000	2.38	27
SEA	Rob Johnson	1.031	1.031	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	0.261	-0.163	0.000	0.424	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-2.269	0.454	0.000	-2.214	-0.509	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-2.014	-0.380	0.000	-1.125	-0.509	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.812	-0.497	0.000	1.309	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	1.975	1.210	0.000	0.765	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.418	-1.269	0.000	0.851	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.537	-0.482	0.000	0.912	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.627	-0.627	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.166	0.000	0.000	0.166	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.298	0.298	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.262	-0.262	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Scott Feldman	-1.291	0.000	-1.457	0.166	0.000	7.33	17
TEX	Matt Treanor	-0.478	-1.389	0.000	0.911	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	-0.863	-0.622	0.000	-0.241	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	0.617	-0.052	0.000	0.669	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	0.490	-0.481	0.000	0.766	0.205	0.00	0
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.623	-0.078	0.000	-0.545	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	-0.150	-0.479	0.000	0.329	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	1.165	-0.020	0.000	1.185	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	0.005	-0.380	0.000	0.385	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	-0.783	-0.783	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-0.044	-0.044	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Matt Harrison	1.327	0.000	0.345	0.982	0.000	4.33	10
TEX	TEX Luckbox	0.787	0.525	0.000	0.262	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	2.159	0.000	0.000	-2.159	0.000	0.00	0.622

How Net Runs works

Player of the Game: Cliff Lee (2.510 NRuns: 3.035 pitching, -0.525 fielding... 2.38 EXERA)

Honorable mention: Michael Saunders (1.975 NRuns: 1.210 hitting, 0.765 fielding)

Mariners defense: 0.563 NRuns
Mariners hitting: -0.723 NRuns
Mariners baserunning: -0.911 NRuns
Cliff Lee's pitching: 3.035 NRuns

Josh Hamilton: 1.165 NRuns
Rest of Rangers lineup: -1.829 NRuns

Goats?

Chone Figgins (-2.269 NRuns: 0.454 hitting, -2.214 fielding, -0.509 running)
Jose Lopez (-2.014 NRuns: -0.380 hitting, -1.125 fielding, -0.509 running)

******

This may be Cliff Lee's best performance of the season, shaking off some defensive miscues and throwing a complete game in one of MLB's offensive launchpads against a strong Texas Rangers lineu- okay fine they started Joaquin Arias, Andres Blanco and Craig Gentry today, but still. Conditions were ripe for a tough outing and Lee instead pitched arguably his best game of the season.

His best innings had to be the 4th (1.117 NRuns), where he went groundball, strikeout, strikeout, groundball, groundball to shake off two groundball singles and not allow any damage... and the 9th and final inning (0.959 NRuns), where he got five groundballs, a harmless flyout and a pop out to end the game. His only real blemish was the line drive that ended the 6th... a line drive that found SS Josh Wilson for the 3rd out.

Masterful performance, Cliff Lee.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-6-2010 (Anaheim 9, Seattle 4)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Joel Pineiro	-0.594	0.000	-0.343	-0.251	0.000	4.69	18
ANA	Mike Napoli	2.888	2.888	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Robb Quinlan	1.048	0.713	0.000	0.335	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	-0.404	-0.752	0.000	0.348	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kevin Frandsen	-0.875	-0.875	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	0.653	1.655	0.000	-1.161	0.159	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	0.903	0.109	0.000	0.794	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Torii Hunter	0.192	-0.094	0.000	0.286	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	-1.382	-1.839	0.000	0.457	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	0.389	0.389	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Fernando Rodney	-0.187	0.000	-0.187	0.000	0.000	5.77	3
ANA	Francisco Rodriguez	0.771	0.000	0.474	0.297	0.000	0.26	3
ANA	Kevin Jepsen	0.283	0.000	0.283	0.000	0.000	1.85	3
ANA	ANA Luckbox	2.102	2.102	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	-0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	-1.556	0.000	-1.399	-0.157	0.000	6.16	18
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-0.312	-0.312	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.576	-0.741	0.000	0.165	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.347	0.408	0.000	0.000	-0.755	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.686	1.155	0.000	-1.841	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.796	0.533	0.000	0.263	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.319	-0.304	0.000	0.623	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.852	-0.865	0.000	2.717	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	3.427	1.189	0.000	2.238	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.358	-0.358	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Brandon League	0.500	0.000	0.500	0.000	0.000	0.04	3
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-1.660	-0.689	0.000	-0.971	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-1.356	0.000	-1.356	0.000	0.000	21.18	2
SEA	Luke French	-0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000	0.000	14.75	1
SEA	Shawn Kelley	-1.935	0.000	-1.935	0.000	0.000	28.43	2
SEA	Garrett Olson	-0.708	0.000	-0.708	0.000	0.000	21.93	1
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.194	0.194	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	2.766	0.000	0.000	-2.766	0.000	0.00	0.505

How Net Runs works

(Note the new number in the lower right corner of the home team table. This is the run expectancy for every half inning in the home park.)

Player of the Game: Ichiro (3.427 NRuns: 1.189 hitting, 2.238 fielding)
Mariners pitching: -5.319 NRuns
Mariners below -1.000 NRuns: 4 (Vargas, Tuiasosopo, Aardsma, Kelley)

Goat: Shawn Kelley (-1.935 pitching NRuns... 28.43 EXERA)

I will not dignify this effort with descriptive or analytical text.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-5-2010 (Anaheim 11, Seattle 2)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Ervin Santana	1.040	0.000	-0.498	1.538	0.000	4.91	18
ANA	Bobby Wilson	-1.140	-0.738	0.000	-0.402	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Napoli	-0.091	-0.343	0.000	0.220	0.032	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	1.223	1.460	0.000	-0.237	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Maicer Izturis	1.499	2.058	0.000	-0.559	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	0.186	-0.341	0.000	0.527	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	1.442	0.754	0.000	0.905	-0.217	0.00	0
ANA	Torii Hunter	3.407	3.158	0.000	0.249	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	1.520	0.940	0.000	0.580	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	-0.870	-0.870	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kevin Frandsen	0.750	0.389	0.000	0.361	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Robb Quinlan	-0.217	-0.169	0.000	-0.048	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Reggie Willits	-0.098	-0.098	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Jason Bulger	0.497	0.000	0.497	0.000	0.000	2.14	6
ANA	Scot Shields	-0.808	0.000	-0.808	0.000	0.000	10.95	3
ANA	ANA Luckbox	0.660	0.440	0.000	0.220	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-1.484	0.000	-1.484	0.000	0.000	6.69	15
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.642	0.562	0.000	0.080	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.260	-0.607	0.000	0.867	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.662	1.338	0.000	0.924	-0.600	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-2.151	-1.794	0.000	-0.357	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-2.773	-0.463	0.000	-2.310	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.796	-0.908	0.000	2.059	-0.355	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-1.178	-1.485	0.000	0.200	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.141	1.380	0.000	-1.239	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.160	-0.297	0.000	0.000	0.137	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.440	0.440	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Garrett Olson	-0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000	0.000	7.97	1
SEA	Shawn Kelley	-3.092	0.000	-3.092	0.000	0.000	81.60	1
SEA	Sean White	-1.416	0.000	-1.416	0.000	0.000	13.07	4
SEA	Brandon League	-0.376	0.000	-0.376	0.000	0.000	7.35	3
SEA	Chad Cordero	0.142	0.000	0.142	0.000	0.000	3.03	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Torii Hunter (3.407 NRuns: 3.158 hitting, 0.249 fielding)

Angels with over 1.000 NRuns: 6 (Santana, Hunter, Kendrick, Izturis, Rivera, Abreu)
Angels hitting: 6.200 NRuns

Mariners worse than -1.000 NRuns: 6
Mariners pitching: -6.376 NRuns
Mariners hitting: -1.834 NRuns

Goat: Shawn Kelley (-3.092 pitching NRuns, 81.60 EXERA)

I'd credit Chone Figgins for Mariners player of the game honors, except go figure he did a lot of his damage in garbage time. Of course.

Ryan Rowland-Smith's first two innings were good. It was the other three that needed some polish. Of course, that's nothing compared to the middle relief, which needs to be amputated.

Quick and Dirty 2010 World Cup projections

These projections are based on nothing more than Massey Ratings and other basic knowledge of the FIFA pecking order. As with any projections, these are simple percentage-based projections and as always numerous variables can change the projected outcome. But yeah, it's Spain's World Cup to lose ;P

Group Play. In the event of ties for the 2nd qualification spot in a group, obviously the selected team is projected to have a greater overall goal differential.

Group A:

Mexico (3) over South Africa
France (1) and Uruguay (1) draw
Uruguay (4) over South Africa
Mexico (4) and France (2) draw
Uruguay (5) and Mexico (5) draw
France (5) over South Africa

Qualifiers: Uruguay and France

Group B:

Argentina (3) over Nigeria
South Korea (3) over Greece
Nigeria (1) and Greece (1) draw
Argentina (6) over South Korea (3)
South Korea (6) over Nigeria (1)
Argentina (9) over Greece (1)

Qualifiers: Argentina and South Korea

Group C:

England (3) over United States
Slovenia (3) over Algeria
Slovenia (4) and United States (1) draw
England (6) over Algeria
England (9) over Slovenia (4)
United States (4) over Algeria

Qualifiers: England and United States

Group D:

Germany (3) over Australia
Serbia (3) over Ghana
Germany (6) over Serbia (3)
Australia (3) over Ghana
Germany (9) over Ghana
Australia (4) and Serbia (4) draw

Qualifiers: Germany and Serbia

Group E:

Netherlands (3) over Denmark
Japan (1) and Cameroon (1) draw
Netherlands (6) over Japan (1)
Denmark (3) over Cameroon (1)
Denmark (6) over Japan (1)
Netherlands (9) over Cameroon (1)

Qualifiers: Netherlands and Denmark

Group F:

Italy (3) over Paraguay
New Zealand (1) and Slovakia (1) draw
Paraguay (3) over Slovakia (1)
Italy (6) over New Zealand (1)
Italy (9) over Slovakia (1)
Paraguay (6) over New Zealand (1)

Qualifiers: Italy and Paraguay

Group G:

Portugal (3) over Cote d'Ivoire
Brazil (3) over North Korea
Brazil (6) over Cote d'Ivoire
Portugal (6) over North Korea
Cote d'Ivoire (3) over North Korea
Brazil (9) over Portugal (6)

Qualifiers: Brazil and Portugal

Group H:

Chile (3) over Honduras
Spain (3) over Switzerland
Chile (6) over Switzerland
Spain (6) over Honduras
Honduras (1) and Switzerland (1) draw
Spain (9) over Chile (6)

Qualifiers: Spain and Chile

Elimination matches. Asterisks note projections of doubt. These matches are very close and a break here or there would easily sway the outcome the other way, not to mention the variables in extra time and penalty kicks.

2nd round:

Uruguay over South Korea*
England over Serbia
Netherlands over Paraguay
Brazil over Chile
Argentina over France
Germany over United States
Italy over Denmark*
Spain over Portugal

Quarterfinals:

England over Uruguay
Brazil over Netherlands
Germany over Argentina*
Spain over Italy

Semifinals:

Brazil over England*
Spain over Germany

Final:

Spain over Brazil*

Brief thoughts:

- Host country South Africa will not only get shut out in Group A play, they probably won't even score a goal. They, however, won't finish 32nd of the 32 teams: North Korea has no business in this tournament and their best chance at scoring a goal (not winning: They have little to no chance of even drawing any of their matches) will be their Group G final with Cote d'Ivoire. But there's about a 50/50 chance they don't score in that match either: Cote d'Ivoire, meanwhile, has a reasonable shot at 2 goals in that match, and they're not particularly good themselves. North Korea is just that bad.

- Cameroon, a favorite pick to make it out of Group E, will likely draw with Japan, will be lucky to earn a draw with Denmark (but is likely to lose) and probably won't score against the Netherlands, but will definitely give up at least a goal and maybe 2. In other words, advancement not likely.

- Brazil and Argentina aren't going to be the only South American teams in the 2nd round. Chile and Paraguay should easily make it out of their groups, albeit as the 2nd team in both cases. Paraguay can easily beat Slovakia and New Zealand in Group F, while Chile should have little trouble with Honduras and Switzerland in Group H.

- The U.S. has little margin for error but they can probably get out of Group C as the #2 team. They will probably draw with Slovenia, and if they hold serve by beating Algeria they will probably get into the 2nd round not by goal differential but by goals scored. They have a better offense than Slovenia.

- South Africa aside, Group A has a serious chance of ending with three teams at 5 points. Uruguay, France and Mexico are all good teams that could play each other to a stalemate, which I suppose makes this the 2010 World Cup's edition of the Group of Death. Uruguay has the best offense of the three and one of the better defenses in Group A. France's offense is the least of the three but their defense is best in the group. Mexico's weaker defense could leave them as the odd team out, especially if they continue their World Cup tradition of coddling the ball and playing keep away for 90+ minutes: They don't have the defensive team to make that strategy work this year.

Net Runs Special, 5-5-2010: The game that incurred Bruce Drennan's wrath (Toronto 5, Cleveland 4)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TOR	Brandon Morrow	-0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000	0.000	5.39	16
TOR	Jose Molina	0.875	0.875	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Lyle Overbay	-1.230	-0.786	0.000	0.075	-0.519	0.00	0
TOR	Aaron Hill	-0.251	-1.591	0.000	1.340	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Jose Bautista	-1.065	-0.255	0.000	-0.810	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Alex Gonzalez	-0.023	-0.646	0.000	0.623	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Fred Lewis	1.045	0.689	0.000	0.356	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Vernon Wells	1.274	0.326	0.000	0.838	0.110	0.00	0
TOR	Travis Snider	-0.469	-0.198	0.000	-0.303	0.032	0.00	0
TOR	Adam Lind	1.608	1.818	0.000	0.000	-0.210	0.00	0
TOR	Jason Frasor	0.391	0.000	0.391	0.000	0.000	1.65	4
TOR	Shawn Camp	0.089	0.000	0.089	0.000	0.000	2.98	2
TOR	Mike McCoy	-0.089	-0.320	0.000	0.231	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	John Buck	-0.164	-0.164	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Rommie Lewis	-0.627	0.000	-0.627	0.000	0.000	7.24	5
TOR	TOR Luckbox	1.420	1.420	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Cito Gaston	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
CLE	Fausto Carmona	-2.049	0.000	-2.552	0.503	0.000	7.46	19
CLE	Mike Redmond	0.902	0.902	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Russell Branyan	0.842	-0.007	0.000	0.849	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Mark Grudzielanek	-1.668	-1.710	0.000	0.516	-0.474	0.00	0
CLE	Jhonny Peralta	-0.041	-1.338	0.000	1.297	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Luis Valbuena	0.706	0.722	0.000	-0.016	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Matt LaPorta	0.404	0.975	0.000	-0.571	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Grady Sizemore	-0.311	-0.018	0.000	-0.293	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Travis Hafner	1.727	0.733	0.000	0.994	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Shin,Soo Choo	-0.001	-0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Tony Sipp	0.977	0.000	0.977	0.000	0.000	-4.05	3
CLE	Chris Perez	-0.332	0.000	-0.332	0.000	0.000	5.76	5
CLE	Austin Kearns	0.117	0.117	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Lou Marson	-0.430	-0.320	0.000	-0.110	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	CLE Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Manny Acta	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Progressive Field	2.803	0.000	0.000	-2.803	0.000	0.00	0

Here is the text of Bruce Drennan's epic rant, and I'll include contextual Net Runs data in the transcript when applicable:

We stink, man. Ah... I thought Carmona... he wasn't GREAT (-2.552 NRuns)... but he certainly pitched well enough to WIN, considering (his team saved a couple runs for him and scored 4)....

Oh, Valbuena! Valbuena, Valbuena, Valbuena (-1.420 NRuns from two errors in 9th)... you know what? Give him back to the Mets, man (actually he came from the Mariners in the Franklin Gutierrez trade, though the Mets were involved in that trade). You know, somebody said he should be in Columbus tonight. I said... send him to Mahoning Valley. He can't do any harm there! They haven't even started their season!!

Oh! Ugh! Painful. Uh... Branyan (-0.007 hitting Runs). Here it is. Here's his stroke. [simulates slow, graceful left handed swing of bat] Beautfiul form [repeats]... IF IT'S A PRACTICE SWING ON THE FIRST TEE! [repeats] Let's pretend I'm a ballerina.

Unbelieveable! Oh! And Peralta... oh God (-1.338 hitting NRuns). Oh... oh... I am in such pain, PAIN I SAY. Oh, I have pain in my side on this side, I have pain in my side on this side, my knees hurt, my elbow hurts like LeBron, most of all my head hurts, my psyche's hurt, I'm hurting all over my body, head to toe. Ohhh God. WE STINK. STINK.

And I'll tell you something else... the starting pitching has been pretty good, pretty good. Just think if they go South... with this... Big Red Machine of the mid 70's lineup that we got (0.055 NRuns today). Just think if that starting rotation goes sour- which has been pretty good, including today (again, no). Just think of that. Ohh! Oh!

Peralta... OHH!! you know, I'll give him credit (1.297 fielding NRuns)... he made two... outstanding defensive plays- which I was in awe of, I mean, I couldn't... the play he made by the dugout (0.584 NRuns) there by the stands was truly a tremendous play. I... if you would have said to me, is he capable of making that play- I would have obviously said no. I'm just thinking what odds- you know All Bets Are Off here, but what odds would I give you that he would make that play, I mean, you're getting the point... I mean, give credit where it's due (Tony Sipp actually got credited for the NRuns on that play as it was a pop up). He made that play and he made that line drive, that great play on that line drive too (1.222 NRuns for that play, coming with men on the corners and one out).

But 0 or 5 for Peralta- including at the end of the game when we actually had a shot at the bottom of the 9th inning to tie it up after the disaster in the top of the 9th*!!! Unbelieveable! Peralta, a .216 after- even after he got a home run and IT'S ABOUT TIME... 212. Sizemore, 220. OH. Uh, Branyan [repeats Branyan swing]... .212.

(* - Chris Perez: -0.851 NRuns that frame, 12.08 EXERA. Valbuena: -0.570 NRuns at SS that inning. Toronto Luckbox: 1.420 NRuns. Cleveland lost a 4-2 lead in the 9th and the 5-4 deficit would eventually be the final.)

LaPorta, OH MY (-0.571 fielding NRuns)- How about the play by LaPorta in Left Field (-0.796 NRuns)? Chuck Miller... I've known Chuck- he was the official scorer today. I've known Chuck for decades... greta guy, good baseball man and a good official scorer. Uh, a writer... for many many many years, good baseball man. Ahem... I'm all choked up here... uh... he was wrong on that play. That can't be a triple THAT CAN'T BE A TRIPLE IT CAN'T BE A TRIPLE THAT'S AN ERROR ON LAPORTA I DON'T CARE WHAT ANYBODY SAYS. THAT'S AN ERROR ON LAPORTA. Turning around like this it's like in my swivel chair here!

(Net Runs, of course, credited LaPorta in full for the gaffe regardless, while Carmona got -0.040 for allowing a flyball. However, Jose Bautista got a 0.836 NRun gift for hitting what was probably a flyout)

My God, did anybody remind these players who are making millions of dollars... even the kids are making four, five, six hundred thousand dollars, you know. That's a lot of money! That's even more than (the producer) Gene makes. Did anybody remind them this is the Major Leagues? Did anybody remind them this is the Major Leagues?