Quick and Dirty 2010 World Cup projections

These projections are based on nothing more than Massey Ratings and other basic knowledge of the FIFA pecking order. As with any projections, these are simple percentage-based projections and as always numerous variables can change the projected outcome. But yeah, it's Spain's World Cup to lose ;P

Group Play. In the event of ties for the 2nd qualification spot in a group, obviously the selected team is projected to have a greater overall goal differential.

Group A:

Mexico (3) over South Africa
France (1) and Uruguay (1) draw
Uruguay (4) over South Africa
Mexico (4) and France (2) draw
Uruguay (5) and Mexico (5) draw
France (5) over South Africa

Qualifiers: Uruguay and France

Group B:

Argentina (3) over Nigeria
South Korea (3) over Greece
Nigeria (1) and Greece (1) draw
Argentina (6) over South Korea (3)
South Korea (6) over Nigeria (1)
Argentina (9) over Greece (1)

Qualifiers: Argentina and South Korea

Group C:

England (3) over United States
Slovenia (3) over Algeria
Slovenia (4) and United States (1) draw
England (6) over Algeria
England (9) over Slovenia (4)
United States (4) over Algeria

Qualifiers: England and United States

Group D:

Germany (3) over Australia
Serbia (3) over Ghana
Germany (6) over Serbia (3)
Australia (3) over Ghana
Germany (9) over Ghana
Australia (4) and Serbia (4) draw

Qualifiers: Germany and Serbia

Group E:

Netherlands (3) over Denmark
Japan (1) and Cameroon (1) draw
Netherlands (6) over Japan (1)
Denmark (3) over Cameroon (1)
Denmark (6) over Japan (1)
Netherlands (9) over Cameroon (1)

Qualifiers: Netherlands and Denmark

Group F:

Italy (3) over Paraguay
New Zealand (1) and Slovakia (1) draw
Paraguay (3) over Slovakia (1)
Italy (6) over New Zealand (1)
Italy (9) over Slovakia (1)
Paraguay (6) over New Zealand (1)

Qualifiers: Italy and Paraguay

Group G:

Portugal (3) over Cote d'Ivoire
Brazil (3) over North Korea
Brazil (6) over Cote d'Ivoire
Portugal (6) over North Korea
Cote d'Ivoire (3) over North Korea
Brazil (9) over Portugal (6)

Qualifiers: Brazil and Portugal

Group H:

Chile (3) over Honduras
Spain (3) over Switzerland
Chile (6) over Switzerland
Spain (6) over Honduras
Honduras (1) and Switzerland (1) draw
Spain (9) over Chile (6)

Qualifiers: Spain and Chile

Elimination matches. Asterisks note projections of doubt. These matches are very close and a break here or there would easily sway the outcome the other way, not to mention the variables in extra time and penalty kicks.

2nd round:

Uruguay over South Korea*
England over Serbia
Netherlands over Paraguay
Brazil over Chile
Argentina over France
Germany over United States
Italy over Denmark*
Spain over Portugal

Quarterfinals:

England over Uruguay
Brazil over Netherlands
Germany over Argentina*
Spain over Italy

Semifinals:

Brazil over England*
Spain over Germany

Final:

Spain over Brazil*

Brief thoughts:

- Host country South Africa will not only get shut out in Group A play, they probably won't even score a goal. They, however, won't finish 32nd of the 32 teams: North Korea has no business in this tournament and their best chance at scoring a goal (not winning: They have little to no chance of even drawing any of their matches) will be their Group G final with Cote d'Ivoire. But there's about a 50/50 chance they don't score in that match either: Cote d'Ivoire, meanwhile, has a reasonable shot at 2 goals in that match, and they're not particularly good themselves. North Korea is just that bad.

- Cameroon, a favorite pick to make it out of Group E, will likely draw with Japan, will be lucky to earn a draw with Denmark (but is likely to lose) and probably won't score against the Netherlands, but will definitely give up at least a goal and maybe 2. In other words, advancement not likely.

- Brazil and Argentina aren't going to be the only South American teams in the 2nd round. Chile and Paraguay should easily make it out of their groups, albeit as the 2nd team in both cases. Paraguay can easily beat Slovakia and New Zealand in Group F, while Chile should have little trouble with Honduras and Switzerland in Group H.

- The U.S. has little margin for error but they can probably get out of Group C as the #2 team. They will probably draw with Slovenia, and if they hold serve by beating Algeria they will probably get into the 2nd round not by goal differential but by goals scored. They have a better offense than Slovenia.

- South Africa aside, Group A has a serious chance of ending with three teams at 5 points. Uruguay, France and Mexico are all good teams that could play each other to a stalemate, which I suppose makes this the 2010 World Cup's edition of the Group of Death. Uruguay has the best offense of the three and one of the better defenses in Group A. France's offense is the least of the three but their defense is best in the group. Mexico's weaker defense could leave them as the odd team out, especially if they continue their World Cup tradition of coddling the ball and playing keep away for 90+ minutes: They don't have the defensive team to make that strategy work this year.

Why wasn't Elizabeth Lambert stopped the first time?

During a conference playoff women's soccer match between New Mexico and BYU, NMU player Elizabeth Lambert got herself on the national radar for all the wrong reasons:



Eventually, she issued what I'm sure was an apology hand crafted in part by New Mexico Athletics. She is suspended indefinitely and I would be surprised if she ever plays for them again.

My question isn't so much why she did it, as I'm sure she just lost her mind and once someone loses her mind there's no rationalizing a meltdown.

No, my question is how she was able to do it so many times. I've watched my fair share of soccer, and I find that the first time you so much as slide tackle someone a little too maliciously (let alone punch someone in the back, or dodgeball someone's head with a kicked ball, or hair-pull takedown somebody), you tend to get no less than a yellow card, and often you'll get red carded and sent off from the match.

Yes, it was a playoff match and going down 11 to 10 trailing 1 to nil would have essentially put a nail in New Mexico's coffin. But refs didn't let the competitive circumstances stop them from running French star Zinedine Zidane after he headbutted an Italian player in the 2006 World Cup Final. Refs in the NCAA Tournament don't let the do-or-die format stop them from calling a 5th and disqualifying foul on a team's star player. If you commit a foul, you commit a foul and it's an official's duty to call it accordingly.

You can argue that Elizabeth Lambert's actions are themselves inexcusable, but what's just as inexcusable is that the Mountain West soccer referees didn't immediately send her off the 1st time she committed a flagrant foul, let alone the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th or umpteenth time. That they let her stay in the match and turn it into an informal one-sided catfight is a collective act of gross negligence on their part. Those officials ought to be punished themselves.

80-90% of those violations never happen if Elizabeth Lambert was sent off after the first flagrant act of violence on a BYU player. The best argument given for allowing the catfight style of 'play' to go is that said play is part of women's soccer. But honestly, I'm not sure how one can argue the hair pulling, malicious tackles and punches to the back are excusable at any level of soccer. The officials have to nip it in the bud, or you end up with spectacles like the one Elizabeth Lambert put forth in this match.

The Green Death was ironically the death of this girl’s soccer coach

http://www.patriotledger.com/sports/x575725578/-Green-Death-coach-resigns

The e-mail linked above got Michael Kinahan, a girl's soccer coach, forced out of his job as a hard-nosed coach of a team he dubbed "Green Death", before the season began. Key text from the e-mail below:

The kids will run, they will fall, get bumps, bruises and even bleed a little. Big deal, it’s good for them (but I do hope the other team is the one bleeding). If the refs can’t handle a little criticism, then they should turn in their whistle. The sooner they figure out how to make a decision and live with the consequences the better. My heckling of the refs is actually helping them develop as people. The political correctness police are not welcome on my sidelines. America’s youth is becoming fat, lazy and non-competitive because competition is viewed as “bad”. I argue that competition is good and is important to the evolution of our species and our survival in what has become an increasingly competitive global economy and dangerous world. Second place trophies are nothing to be proud of as they serve only as a reminder that you missed your goal; their only useful purpose is as an inspiration to do that next set of reps. Do you go to a job interview and not care about winning? Don’t animals eat what they kill (and yes, someone actually kills the meat we eat too – it isn’t grown in plastic wrap)? And speaking of meat, I expect that the ladies be put on a diet of fish, undercooked red meat and lots of veggies. No junk food. Protein shakes are encouraged, and while blood doping and HGH use is frowned upon, there is no testing policy. And at the risk of stating the obvious, blue slushies are for winners.

These are my views and not necessarily the views of the league (but they should be). I recognize that my school of thought may be an ideological shift from conventional norms. But it is imperative that we all fight the good fight, get involved now and resist the urge to become sweat-xedo-wearing yuppies who sit on the sidelines in their LL Bean chairs sipping mocha-latte-half-caf-chinos while discussing reality TV and home decorating with other feeble-minded folks. I want to hear cheering, I want to hear encouragement, I want to get the team pumped up at each and every game and know they are playing for something.

I think a) he took it too far without any sort of wink/nudge and b) the sort of soft, comfort-zone driven mentality that led to the hearty backlash is one of the reasons why the United States gets their asses kicked at World Cup soccer every four years.

(No, I’m not counting the fledgling women’s world cup because the U.S. is the only country whose nation’s girls and women seriously participate in the sport en masse, and therefore own a massive advantage. The WWC is a glorified exhibition designed to put the U.S. women over and will be for at least the next 20 years.)

Also, the guy may have helped his case with a few extra paragraph breaks. Holy manifesto, Batman.