Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-14-2010 (St Louis 9, Seattle 3)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Luke French	-3.667	-0.093	-3.574	0.000	0.000	11.52	12
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.696	-0.696	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	-0.253	-0.371	0.000	0.118	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.878	1.087	0.000	0.543	0.248	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-3.420	-0.940	0.000	-1.845	-0.635	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.189	-0.876	0.000	1.065	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.020	-0.665	0.000	0.535	0.110	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.321	-1.486	0.000	1.807	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	3.440	1.680	0.000	1.760	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ian Snell	-0.764	0.000	-0.764	0.000	0.000	7.25	6
SEA	Chad Cordero	-0.836	0.000	-0.836	0.000	0.000	11.04	3
SEA	Sean White	-1.404	0.000	-1.404	0.000	0.000	15.78	3
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.962	0.412	0.000	0.550	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	-0.163	-0.163	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	1.005	1.005	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
STL	Adam Wainwright	-0.780	0.192	-0.763	0.000	-0.209	4.97	21
STL	Yadier Molina	-1.076	-1.076	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Albert Pujols	1.910	2.951	0.000	-0.207	-0.834	0.00	0
STL	Felipe Lopez	-1.990	-1.351	0.000	-0.639	0.000	0.00	0
STL	David Freese	-0.078	-0.698	0.000	0.620	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Brendan Ryan	-0.077	-0.118	0.000	0.041	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Matt Holliday	0.963	0.434	0.000	0.529	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Colby Rasmus	3.638	1.536	0.000	2.102	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Ryan Ludwick	3.266	2.677	0.000	0.589	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Aaron Miles	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Jason Motte	0.401	0.000	0.401	0.000	0.000	0.72	3
STL	Mitchell Boggs	-0.331	0.000	-0.331	0.000	0.000	6.82	3
STL	STL Luckbox	1.600	1.600	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Tony LaRussa	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Busch Stadium	4.018	0.000	0.000	-4.018	0.000	0.00	0
	RE/Inning: 0.487

Co-Players of the Game:

Colby Rasmus (3.638 NRuns: 1.536 hitting, 2.102 fielding)
Ryan Ludwick (3.266 NRuns: 2.677 hitting, 0.589 fielding)

Cardinals luckbox: 1.600 NRuns

Mariners luckbox: 1.005 NRuns

Mariners Player of the Game: Ichiro (3.440 NRuns: 1.680 hitting, 1.760 fielding)

Co-Goats:

Luke French (-3.667 NRuns: -0.093 hitting, -3.574 pitching, 11.52 EXERA)
Jose Lopez (-3.420 NRuns: -0.940 hitting, -1.845 fielding, -0.635 running)
Mariners bullpen (-3.004 NRuns, 11.14 EXERA)

******

I will only add that never have I seen three such good performances in a game with two such bad performances. This even ignores Sean White's awful 8th inning (-1.404 NRuns, 15.78 EXERA), not to mention the garbage effort by the rest of the bullpen (though Ian Snell's striking out of the side was a fine way to go out: He was DFA'd today).

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-11-2010 (San Diego 4, Seattle 3)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	1.048	-0.664	1.615	0.097	0.000	0.92	18
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-0.384	-0.384	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-1.123	-1.289	0.000	0.166	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-1.043	-0.474	0.000	-0.569	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.463	-0.829	0.000	1.292	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.275	0.511	0.000	-0.236	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	1.972	1.457	0.000	0.360	0.155	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.969	0.730	0.000	-1.699	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-1.922	0.178	0.000	-2.100	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-0.342	0.360	-0.702	0.000	0.000	11.96	2
SEA	Michael Saunders	-0.125	-0.125	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Shawn Kelley	0.865	0.000	0.865	0.000	0.000	-4.05	3
SEA	Brandon League	0.352	0.000	0.255	0.097	0.000	1.04	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.587	0.398	0.000	0.189	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.668	-0.084	-0.584	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SDP	Kevin Correia	-1.182	-1.061	-0.121	0.000	0.000	3.34	18
SDP	Nick Hundley	-1.865	-1.467	0.000	-0.398	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Adrian Gonzalez	0.653	0.822	0.000	0.000	-0.169	0.00	0
SDP	David Eckstein	-0.415	-0.076	0.000	-0.339	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chase Headley	0.498	-0.138	0.000	0.636	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Jerry Hairston	0.189	0.137	0.000	0.052	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Scott Hairston	2.102	-0.228	0.000	2.330	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Tony Gwynn	0.809	1.891	0.000	-1.082	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chris Denorfia	-0.445	-0.077	0.000	-0.368	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Will Venable	0.360	0.360	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Joe Thatcher	0.019	0.000	0.019	0.000	0.000	3.01	3
SDP	Aaron Cunningham	-0.169	-0.169	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Ryan Webb	0.574	0.000	0.574	0.000	0.000	0.78	6
SDP	SDP Luckbox	1.042	0.958	0.000	0.084	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Bud Black	-0.189	-0.189	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Petco Park	0.967	0.000	0.000	-0.967	0.000	0.00	0.380

Player of the Game: Scott Hairston (2.102 NRuns: -0.228 hitting, 2.330 fielding)
Padres Luckbox: 1.042 NRuns

Runs given away by Mariners intentional walks: 0.584

Mariners Player of the Game: Milton Bradley (1.972 NRuns: 1.457 hitting, 0.360 fielding, 0.155 running)

David Aardsma: -0.702 NRuns (11.96 EXERA)
Rest of Mariners pitching: 2.735 NRuns (2.75 EXERA)
Jason Vargas: 1.615 pitching NRuns (0.92 EXERA)

Mariners outfield defense: -3.439 NRuns

Goat: Ichiro (-1.922 NRuns: 0.178 hitting, -2.100 fielding)

******

You can't chalk David Aardsma's meltdown and eventual walkoff loss to bad luck: A leadoff line drive, a hit batter, a flyball and (following Wak's intentional walk call) the fatal flyball. Aardsma lives and dies on the edge with his wild and flyball prone pitching, and once again this time it killed the Mariners.

Ichiro is not the defender he used to be.

Milton Bradley's had games like this before only to disappear for yet another long stretch, but boy did he need the big game at the plate he had today: Three hits, including a home run.

Don't get too excited about Jason Vargas' great day. It was a truly good game, but line drives and walks in Petco Park tend to count for little damage since the park plays so well for pitchers. However, strikeouts with runners on are huge, and Vargas got two big ones in the bottom 4th with men on 2nd and 3rd (1.182 NRuns total) to get out of trouble.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-6-2010 (Anaheim 9, Seattle 4)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Joel Pineiro	-0.594	0.000	-0.343	-0.251	0.000	4.69	18
ANA	Mike Napoli	2.888	2.888	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Robb Quinlan	1.048	0.713	0.000	0.335	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	-0.404	-0.752	0.000	0.348	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kevin Frandsen	-0.875	-0.875	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	0.653	1.655	0.000	-1.161	0.159	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	0.903	0.109	0.000	0.794	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Torii Hunter	0.192	-0.094	0.000	0.286	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	-1.382	-1.839	0.000	0.457	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	0.389	0.389	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Fernando Rodney	-0.187	0.000	-0.187	0.000	0.000	5.77	3
ANA	Francisco Rodriguez	0.771	0.000	0.474	0.297	0.000	0.26	3
ANA	Kevin Jepsen	0.283	0.000	0.283	0.000	0.000	1.85	3
ANA	ANA Luckbox	2.102	2.102	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	-0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	-1.556	0.000	-1.399	-0.157	0.000	6.16	18
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-0.312	-0.312	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.576	-0.741	0.000	0.165	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.347	0.408	0.000	0.000	-0.755	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.686	1.155	0.000	-1.841	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.796	0.533	0.000	0.263	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.319	-0.304	0.000	0.623	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.852	-0.865	0.000	2.717	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	3.427	1.189	0.000	2.238	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.358	-0.358	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Brandon League	0.500	0.000	0.500	0.000	0.000	0.04	3
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-1.660	-0.689	0.000	-0.971	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-1.356	0.000	-1.356	0.000	0.000	21.18	2
SEA	Luke French	-0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000	0.000	14.75	1
SEA	Shawn Kelley	-1.935	0.000	-1.935	0.000	0.000	28.43	2
SEA	Garrett Olson	-0.708	0.000	-0.708	0.000	0.000	21.93	1
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.194	0.194	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	2.766	0.000	0.000	-2.766	0.000	0.00	0.505

How Net Runs works

(Note the new number in the lower right corner of the home team table. This is the run expectancy for every half inning in the home park.)

Player of the Game: Ichiro (3.427 NRuns: 1.189 hitting, 2.238 fielding)
Mariners pitching: -5.319 NRuns
Mariners below -1.000 NRuns: 4 (Vargas, Tuiasosopo, Aardsma, Kelley)

Goat: Shawn Kelley (-1.935 pitching NRuns... 28.43 EXERA)

I will not dignify this effort with descriptive or analytical text.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-21-2010 (Seattle 15, San Diego 8)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SDP	Wade LeBlanc	-2.894	0.000	-2.894	0.000	0.000	12.26	9
SDP	Nick Hundley	0.306	0.306	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Adrian Gonzalez	2.766	2.373	0.000	0.256	0.137	0.00	0
SDP	David Eckstein	0.683	1.550	0.000	-0.867	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chase Headley	-1.732	-1.002	0.000	-0.730	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Everth Cabrera	-1.401	-0.262	0.000	-1.139	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Jerry Hairston Jr	-0.962	-1.048	0.000	0.086	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chris Denorfia	0.458	-0.372	0.000	0.583	0.247	0.00	0
SDP	Will Venable	-3.595	-1.524	0.000	-2.071	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Oscar Salazar	1.151	1.151	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Tony Gwynn Jr	-0.306	-0.523	0.000	0.217	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Cesar Ramos	-1.708	0.000	-1.939	0.231	0.000	20.39	3
SDP	Adam Russell	1.088	0.000	1.088	0.000	0.000	-0.33	6
SDP	Joe Thatcher	0.359	0.000	0.359	0.000	0.000	1.22	3
SDP	Ryan Webb	0.143	0.000	0.143	0.000	0.000	3.02	3
SDP	SDP Luckbox	2.422	2.422	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Bud Black	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	-0.473	0.000	-0.473	0.000	0.000	4.84	19
SEA	Josh Bard	2.704	3.359	0.000	-0.655	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.613	0.278	0.000	0.335	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.852	-0.541	0.000	-0.311	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-3.017	-1.492	0.000	-1.525	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-1.140	1.376	0.000	-2.734	0.218	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	0.725	0.913	0.000	-0.188	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.527	0.718	0.000	-0.191	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	2.448	0.171	0.000	1.522	0.755	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	4.988	4.988	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jesus Colome	0.472	0.000	0.472	0.000	0.000	1.85	5
SEA	Brandon League	0.293	0.000	0.293	0.000	0.000	1.77	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.217	0.217	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	4.283	0.000	0.000	-4.283	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Mike Sweeney (4.988 hitting NRuns)

Mariners with more than 1.000 total NRuns: 2

Josh Bard (2.704 NRuns: 3.359 hitting, -0.655 fielding)
Ichiro (2.448 NRuns: 0.171 hitting, 1.522 fielding, 0.755 running)

Mariners hitting: 9.770 NRuns
Mariners defense: -3.747 NRuns
Josh Wilson's defense: -2.734 NRuns

Padres defense: -3.434 NRuns



Wade LeBlanc and Cesar Ramos: -4.833 pitching NRuns
Adam Russell: 1.088 NRuns
Padres Luckbox: 2.422 NRuns
Padres Player of the Game: Adrian Gonzalez (2.766 NRuns: 2.373 hitting, 0.256 fielding, 0.137 running)

Goat: Will Venable (-3.595 NRuns: -1.524 hitting, -2.071 fielding)

******

Funny thing about that two run 1st inning for Cliff Lee: He actually pitched pretty well in that inning. Strikeout, groundball, groundball, line drive, big strikeout with two on, groundball, pop out.

It was after that frame that Lee fell back to Earth, but despite taking credit for eight runs allowed, Lee's performance wasn't terrible. It was ultimately below average, but the 4.84 EXERA indicates he wasn't 8-runs-bad. With a typical defensive effort he probably allows three runs.

(The bogus Jerry Hairston strikeout on an inside pitch that led to Hairston's meltdown and ejection didn't have a huge impact: The K only counted for -0.238 NRuns, and even if the pitch had been correctly called a ball the count would have been 2-2, not a hitter friendly count for Hairston against a fine pitcher like Lee)

As for the story with this 23 run game, the Mariners got long balls from Mike Sweeney (who probably snatched the DH spot for the foreseeable future with one of the best Mariner performances this season) and Josh Wilson.

And the Padres front end pitching played a large role in letting this game get away: Had Wade LeBlanc and Cesar Ramos thrown the whole game with the effort they gave today they would have legitimately given up about 15-16 runs. They had help, though: Will Venable got absolutely abused in RF today, giving away over 2 runs all by himself in the field, not to mention his terrible day at the plate (-1.524 NRuns).

Speaking of bad defense, that was the big story here: The two teams combined to give away over 7 runs in the field. Jose Lopez matched Will Venable's failboat with a terrible game at 3B (-1.525 NRuns) to go with his terrible game at the plate today (-1.492 NRuns). Josh Wilson had a homer but was terrible himself at SS (-2.734 NRuns). That the Padres still lost by 7 runs despite getting over two runs of help from Mariners miscues and a terrible defensive effort by the M's speaks to the Mariners' impressive effort today.

Funny enough, the best defensive effort today for the M's came from Ichiro (1.522 NRuns), who has struggled with reigning in key flyballs and line drives for most of this season. His effort was the exception to a terrible game for the Mariners defense. Thanks to Mike Sweeney's big bat and some terrible Padres efforts, the M's threw up 15 runs and got a big win.

This was a case where both teams threw up a lot of runs not so much because of impressive hitting, but because of terrible defense and some bad pitching.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-16-2010 (Tampa Bay 2, Seattle 1)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	1.602	0.000	1.968	-0.366	0.000	2.25	24
SEA	Josh Bard	0.466	0.871	0.000	-0.405	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.186	0.114	0.000	0.072	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-1.724	-1.240	0.000	0.003	-0.487	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.246	-0.450	0.000	0.696	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.953	-0.243	0.000	1.196	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.414	0.509	0.000	-0.095	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.104	0.126	0.000	0.438	-0.460	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-2.744	-1.365	0.000	-1.379	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-1.126	-1.126	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.107	0.107	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TBR	Matt Garza	-2.265	0.000	-2.495	0.230	0.000	7.77	18
TBR	Dioner Navarro	-0.707	-1.060	0.000	0.353	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Hank Blalock	-0.656	-0.656	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Sean Rodriguez	1.357	0.429	0.000	0.928	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Evan Longoria	-0.229	-0.229	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Jason Bartlett	-0.953	-0.986	0.000	0.033	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Carl Crawford	3.100	0.563	0.000	2.400	0.137	0.00	0
TBR	BJ Upton	1.644	0.246	0.000	1.398	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Gabe Kapler	-0.990	-0.672	0.000	-0.318	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Willy Aybar	-0.608	-0.608	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Carlos Pena	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Lance Cormier	-0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000	0.000	6.98	2
TBR	Randy Choate	0.464	0.000	0.319	0.145	0.000	0.31	2
TBR	Dan Wheeler	0.273	0.000	0.273	0.000	0.000	0.89	2
TBR	Rafael Soriano	0.592	0.000	0.592	0.000	0.000	-0.63	3
TBR	TBR Luckbox	0.708	0.708	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TBR	Joe Maddon	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Tropicana Field	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Carl Crawford (3.100 NRuns: 0.563 hitting, 2.400 fielding, 0.137 running)
Rays total contributed team NRuns: 0.808 NRuns
Tampa Bay Luckbox: 0.708 NRuns

Mariners Player of the Game: Cliff Lee (1.602 NRuns: 1.968 pitching, -0.366 fielding)

Goat: Ichiro (-2.744 NRuns: -1.365 hitting, -1.379 fielding)

Ichiro, Chone Figgins and Ken Griffey Jr: -5.594 NRuns
Rest of Mariners: 3.971 NRuns

******

You can pin this loss on three veteran players. Cliff Lee pitched a great game. A young lineup did what they could to help the Mariners win. Three guys did what they could to kill rallies and absolve Matt Garza from a bad pitching performance. The Rays eventually got that 2nd run and locked this up.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-8-2010 (Anaheim 4, Seattle 3, 10 innings)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Joe Saunders	-2.031	0.000	-2.283	0.252	0.000	7.57	17
ANA	Mike Napoli	-0.790	-0.576	0.000	-0.214	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kendry Morales	0.332	0.112	0.000	0.220	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	-0.105	-1.028	0.000	0.923	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kevin Frandsen	0.703	-0.099	0.000	0.802	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	0.047	-0.479	0.000	0.419	0.107	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	-1.400	-0.165	0.000	-1.018	-0.217	0.00	0
ANA	Torii Hunter	1.681	0.713	0.000	0.968	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	0.015	-0.256	0.000	0.112	0.159	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	0.760	0.760	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Reggie Willits	-0.652	-0.518	0.000	0.000	-0.134	0.00	0
ANA	Michael Ryan	0.521	0.521	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Ryan Budde	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Jason Bulger	1.089	0.000	1.089	0.000	0.000	-2.60	4
ANA	Kevin Jepsen	0.824	0.000	0.824	0.000	0.000	-2.66	3
ANA	Fernando Rodney	-0.657	0.000	-0.657	0.000	0.000	9.69	3
ANA	Brian Fuentes	0.360	0.000	0.360	0.000	0.000	1.21	3
ANA	Brandon Wood	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	ANA Luckbox	0.556	0.303	0.000	0.253	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	-0.253	-0.253	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Doug Fister	-2.027	0.000	-2.172	0.145	0.000	6.80	21
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.998	-0.998	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.974	-0.762	0.000	-0.212	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.535	-0.719	0.000	0.835	-0.651	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.113	-0.272	0.000	0.602	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.257	-0.373	0.000	0.009	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.707	-0.028	0.000	0.735	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	2.108	-0.064	0.000	2.065	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	2.597	2.066	0.000	0.531	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-0.534	-0.534	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Brandon League	0.214	0.000	0.214	0.000	0.000	2.43	3
SEA	David Aardsma	-1.170	0.000	-1.170	0.000	0.000	11.53	4
SEA	Shawn Kelley	0.004	0.000	0.004	0.000	0.000	4.16	2
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.794	0.541	0.000	0.253	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.556	-0.253	0.000	-0.303	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.486	0.000	0.000	-0.486	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Ichiro (2.597 NRuns: 2.066 hitting, 0.531 fielding)
Pretty close: Franklin Gutierrez (2.108 NRuns: -0.028 hitting, 2.065 fielding, 0.107 running)

Angels Player of the Game: Torii Hunter (1.681 NRuns: 0.713 hitting, 0.968 fielding, many birthdays ruined)
Jason Bulger and Kevin Jepsen: 1.903 NRuns pitching
Fernando Rodney: -0.657 pitching NRuns

Goat: Starting Pitching
Joe Saunders (-2.031 NRuns: -2.283 pitching, 0.252 fielding)
Doug Fister (-2.027 NRuns: -2.172 pitching, 0.145 fielding)

Number of Mariners with more than -1.000 hitting NRuns: 0
Number of Mariners with positive hitting NRuns: 1 (Ichiro)
Mariners defense: 4.710 NRuns
David Aardsma: -1.170 NRuns

******

Unlike several of the other Mariners' losses in this 8 game skid, this one at least had some interesting details.

- This was easily Doug Fister's worst start of the season by EXERA, and still he only allowed three runs. I'd be hard pressed to find a pitcher whose defense has helped him more than Doug Fister's.

- If the Mariners were going to bust out again anyone in the foreseeable future, it was going to be the painfully hittable lefthander Joe Saunders... and yet the M's could only manage three runs off a couple of rallies. The average team would have scored five runs off of Saunders' 5.2 fitful innings today. Did his defense have his back? Well, somewhat... the infield had most of the positive defensive value for the Angels today (2.364 NRuns). Groundouts and double plays saved Saunders from trouble time and again.

- The two Angels relievers with negative EXERAs earned those by coming in with men on base and striking guys out to escape the jam. A negative EXERA means the reliever's performance not only was worth a 0.00 ERA, but saved the potential runs that the preceding pitcher left on base.

- The potential meltdown of David Aardsma's role as closer may not be a matter of if, but when: Even when he gets the job done he gives up enough line drives and walks to indicate his days may be numbered as Seattle's closer. However, if/when that happens the Mariners won't need to go far to find a suitable replacement: Brandon League has run solid EXERAs most of his times out thanks to a healthy diet of groundballs and strikeouts and a lack of liners. Hitters pose a consistently weak threat to score with League on the hill.

- No one hitter kept sinking the Mariners' critical rallies. Rob Johnson did come up empty with two outs twice, but the team's chances of scoring on that 2nd and final K were slim. His -0.998 hitting NRuns were the low mark at the plate. Most of the roster (save for Ichiro's terrific day at the plate) contributed negatively but, while several hitters meekly killed a few key rallies, none of the hitters were a complete black hole for the team. The Mariners scored three runs, but they still didn't hit well. However, their hitting wasn't as bad as the playing-dead outings of the last few days.

But one more however: This "improvement" came against Joe Saunders, arguably one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB (if not for a depleted Angels farm system he'd have been replaced). If three runs and a bunch of dead rallies are all they have to show against Saunders, it still doesn't bode well for their chances in coming games. They need to score 3-4 runs against better pitchers for the death-slump to be officially over.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-17-2010 (Seattle 4, Detroit 2)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base
DET	Justin Verlander	-0.141	0.000	-0.757	0.616	0.000
DET	Gerald Laird	-0.338	0.027	0.000	-0.365	0.000
DET	Miguel Cabrera	-0.565	-0.862	0.000	0.297	0.000
DET	Scott Sizemore	-0.077	0.404	0.000	0.000	-0.481
DET	Brandon Inge	0.037	-0.044	0.000	0.081	0.000
DET	Adam Everett	-0.431	0.050	0.000	-0.481	0.000
DET	Carlos Guillen	0.457	-0.023	0.000	0.480	0.000
DET	Austin Jackson	0.854	-0.729	0.000	1.583	0.000
DET	Ryan Raburn	-2.334	-1.465	0.000	-0.869	0.000
DET	Magglio Ordoñez	0.427	0.427	0.000	0.000	0.000
DET	DET Luckbox	0.107	0.107	0.000	0.000	0.000
DET	Jim Leyland	-0.165	-0.165	0.000	0.000	0.000
DET	Alex Avila	-0.238	-0.238	0.000	0.000	0.000
DET	Johnny Damon	0.616	0.616	0.000	0.000	0.000
DET	Ramon Santiago	-0.311	-0.169	0.000	-0.142	0.000
DET	Phil Coke	-0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000	0.000
DET	Joel Zumaya	-0.079	0.000	-0.106	0.027	0.000

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hitting	Pitching	Defense	Base
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-1.409	0.000	-1.409	0.000	0.000
SEA	Adam Moore	-0.683	-0.576	0.000	-0.107	0.000
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.150	0.664	0.000	0.000	-0.814
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.738	-1.528	0.000	0.626	0.164
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.629	-0.142	0.000	0.771	0.000
SEA	Jack Wilson	0.077	-0.148	0.000	0.442	-0.217
SEA	Milton Bradley	2.656	-0.233	0.000	2.730	0.159
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.511	1.072	0.000	0.221	0.218
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	3.773	1.947	0.000	1.567	0.259
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-1.262	-1.262	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.589	0.424	0.165	0.000	0.000
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
SEA	Brandon League	-0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000	0.000
SEA	Mark Lowe	-0.768	0.000	-0.768	0.000	0.000
SEA	David Aardsma	-0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000	0.000

Expected ERAs for today's pitching performances:

Justin Verlander - 5.12
Phil Coke - 12.32
Joel Zumaya - 5.54

Ryan Rowland-Smith - 6.17
Brandon League - 7.69
Mark Lowe - 10.62
David Aardsma - 6.92

Player of the Game: Ichiro! (3.773 NRuns: 1.947 batting, 1.567 fielding, 0.259 baserunning)

Honorable Mention: Milton Bradley (2.656 NRuns: -0.233 batting, 2.730 fielding, 0.159 baserunning)

Designated What?: Ken Griffey Jr. (-1.262 NRuns, all batting)

Goat: Ryan Raburn (-2.334 NRuns: -1.465 batting, -0.869 fielding)

Verlander looked like he was going to dominate after a 1st inning in which he saved the Tigers a full run. But a few innings and line drives later, he finished his 7th and final inning with a pedestrian -0.141 NRuns. He began that 7th and final inning by allowing a killer leadoff walk (0.417 NRuns). That baserunner, Milton Bradley, eventually came around to score on Casey Kotchman's RBI double.

Run Expectancy and Net Runs have shown me that, like any outcome, not all walks are created equal. There are three rules I've found to be true with walks (aside from obviously never issuing a walk with the bases loaded):

1. Do not walk the leadoff batter. (0.417 NRuns)

2. Do not walk a guy with two men on, regardless of what bases they occupy. (Average damage: 0.600 NRuns)

3. If you must walk a guy, the best time to issue a walk is with two outs and 1st base empty. (Average: 0.120 NRuns)

A crazy day in baseball today and a streamlined scoring process means I've got bonus material for today. Check back!

Issue a walk any other time