Dave Cameron's piece on retooling for 2011 offered some interesting food for thought.
Dave proposed a couple of wire-level pickups:
Chris Resop: Yeah, he would be a great piece to pick up and test drive, but with the Braves leading the NL East and definitely looking at a postseason return, plus two late 30's pitchers in their rotation (Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami) coming with a significant non-zero injury risk, along with a converted reliever (Kris Medlen) filling in for a currently injured young starter (Jair Jurrjens) who was already struggling before his DL trip, and their other fringe rotation options struggling at AAA (Jo-Jo Reyes, James Parr)... what if the Braves consider Resop a valuable piece of rotation insurance?
They wouldn't need Resop as a starter in October with a playoff-shortened rotation. But if one of the old men hits the DL during the regular season, if Jurrjens doesn't get back up to speed and/or if Medlen comes back to Earth and looks more like a reliever-quality arm (or gets hurt himself), they might need Resop's arm in the rotation, and his excellent work in AAA probably isn't lost on the Braves front office even if he's not on their 25 man roster.
Resop has a clause in his contract that says he's got to get called up by 6/15 this season or get released. But with Jesse Chavez struggling in the Braves pen, no assurances that Cristhian Martinez will be a useful reliever over the long term, a host of young option-able arms in the pen that could possibly unravel, and the elephant in the room of the two veteran starters (Lowe and Kawakami) struggling, I'm not convinced the Braves consider Resop as disposable as he'd need to be to make for an easy flier pickup.
Kila Ka’aihue and Alex Gordon: Gordon is admittedly an if-pickup in Cameron's scenario, but his focus is on Ka'aihue, who is admittedly a more do-able pickup. The question is whether the Royals would be keen on unloading him for a low price. They didn't mind unloading Dan Cortes and Derrick Saito from their system for Yuniesky Betancourt, but Cortes and Saito were young pitchers in a system full of them.
Ka'aihue, even rotting away in AAA, could be of use to the Royals down the road, and is only blocked because of the likes of Billy Butler and Jose Guillen. Guillen's most likely gone after this season, which could open up a spot at 1B or DH. Kansas City's not the brightest bulb in the box when it comes to talent assembly but they have to be mindful that Ka'aihue could help their team next year. It's going to take a more valuable piece than just a junk prospect or two to pry him away.
Both proposed ideas are predicated on the acquisition pieces being disposable assets to their respective teams, but a closer look indicates they may not be as disposable as it currently seems.
******
As for re-tooling the roster... there are 15 potential spots for an upgrade, but many of them are easy to fill.
Despite the M's struggles with the bullpen this season, a good bullpen is fairly easy to assemble and re-tool: Between failed starters and relievers with a hot fastball or a single fine out pitch, a lot of league-minimum guys offer potential to fill the spot. You do what most teams do: Go get a bunch of arms, put the best ones on the 25 man and stash the rest in AAA in case the audition winners don't cut it and/or guys get hurt. Closer is not as difficult a role to fill as many think: Incumbent David Aardsma was a waiver trade pickup that won an open audition for the role in 2009. If you think you need to replace him, an open audition among 4-5 qualified relievers can easily produce a guy that can get three outs in the 9th with a 1-3 run lead 30-40 times in a year.
The bench is always easy to assemble because the sort of parts you need to fill it (backup catcher, modular infielder, modular outfielder, pinch hit bats) typically only need to be a bit better than AAAA quality and thus the roles are cheap and easy to fill. Thus of the 15 given question marks, eight should not be terribly difficult to fill or at least address with a workable solution that doesn't significantly hurt the team.
As for the rotation, if we buy the notion that true #5 starters don't exist (and I can), then you only really need to fill one of the two open rotation slots with a genuinely good pitcher. It depends on how short you think Jason Vargas and Doug Fister fall of filling the #3 slot in the rotation, if an audition for the #5 role doesn't somehow produce a superior candidate.
Really, you don't need five strong starting pitchers... probably one or two good to great pitchers, one or two decent/average/useful starters and then an okay guy to round out the 5 slot with the understanding that the owner of this slot can and probably will fluctuate. The need to fill two spots is predicated on thinking of Vargas and Fister as back-end or replacement level arms... and that depends on your impression of their work this season. I don't consider either one anything resembling an ace, but both can be and have been mostly reliable starters (Fister's shoulder fatigue notwithstanding). You can focus on upgrading one rotation slot and then, like the bench and bullpen, assemble an audition of talent to fill the #5 slot while stashing alternatives in AAA Tacoma (if the minor league system hasn't produced potential alternatives by then).
We can agree the lineup needs to be upgraded. One or two additional lineup upgrades isn't an impossibility. From there, if supply and money make upgrading other spots infeasible, you can take fliers on guys or have the incumbents continue in those roles until you can upgrade. The easiest spots to upgrade on this roster are catcher, 1B and DH. These spots can probably get upgraded at an affordable cost or even filled by flier-type acquisitions. Shortstop and 3B aren't going to be as easy to address: Good players at either position don't come cheap. How you fill LF depends on how much you value hitting and defense. An incumbent could fill the role provided his shortcomings aren't in an area you highly value.
So while the team has a lot of potential upgrade spots, the situation isn't as dire as it seems at first glance. Even if many of the 2010 underperformers can be expected to continue to underperform, a lot of the potential openings are fairly easy to fill, meaning the M's should be able to focus their resources on filling the other needed roles.
Showing posts with label Kansas City Royals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kansas City Royals. Show all posts
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-28-2010 (Seattle 6, Kansas City 5)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Ryan Rowland-Smith | -2.533 | 0.000 | -2.533 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 8.78 | 17 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | -1.030 | -0.528 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.502 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | 2.062 | 1.905 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | 2.541 | 1.603 | 0.000 | 1.685 | -0.747 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -0.364 | -0.562 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jack Wilson | 2.900 | 0.573 | 0.000 | 2.327 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | 0.519 | -0.084 | 0.000 | 0.603 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | -1.942 | -2.029 | 0.000 | 0.087 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.726 | 1.075 | 0.000 | -0.506 | 0.157 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | -0.348 | -0.381 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.033 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Brandon League | 0.382 | 0.000 | 0.382 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.66 | 4 |
| SEA | Mark Lowe | -0.406 | 0.000 | -0.406 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 8.43 | 3 |
| SEA | David Aardsma | -0.443 | 0.000 | -0.443 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 8.74 | 3 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | Gil Meche | -1.354 | 0.000 | -0.422 | -0.932 | 0.000 | 5.63 | 18 |
| KCR | Jason Kendall | 2.067 | 2.183 | 0.000 | -0.116 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Billy Butler | -1.245 | -0.299 | 0.000 | -0.946 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Willie Bloomquist | -0.585 | -1.520 | 0.000 | 1.479 | -0.544 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Alberto Callaspo | -0.259 | -0.307 | 0.000 | 0.300 | -0.252 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Yuniesky Betancourt | -0.725 | -0.941 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Scott Podsednik | 1.210 | -0.218 | 0.000 | 1.428 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Mitch Maier | 2.211 | 1.600 | 0.000 | 0.611 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | David DeJesus | -1.103 | 0.307 | 0.000 | -1.410 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Jose Guillen | -0.714 | -0.714 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | KCR Luckbox | 0.145 | 0.145 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Trey Hillman | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Alex Gordon | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Brad Thompson | 0.586 | 0.000 | 0.445 | 0.141 | 0.000 | 2.26 | 4 |
| KCR | Dusty Hughes | -0.803 | 0.000 | -0.966 | 0.163 | 0.000 | 13.11 | 3 |
| KCR | Rob Tejeda | -0.546 | 0.000 | -0.546 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 11.88 | 2 |
| Kauffmann Stadium | 0.949 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.949 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Jack Wilson (2.900 NRuns: 0.573 hitting, 2.327 fielding)
Pretty good:
Chone Figgins (2.541 NRuns: 1.603 hitting, 1.685 fielding, -0.747 running)
Casey Kotchman (2.062 NRuns: 1.905 hitting, 0.157 fielding)
Pretty bad:
Ryan Rowland-Smith (-2.533 pitching NRuns)
Franklin Gutierrez (-1.942 NRuns: -2.029 hitting, 0.087 fielding)
The Royals can play sometimes:
Mitch Maier (2.211 NRuns: 1.600 hitting, 0.611 fielding)
Jason Kendall (2.067 NRuns: 2.183 hitting, -0.116 fielding)
******
Ryan Rowland-Smith: He looked alright the first four innings. He didn't look so good in the 5th, and he looked absolutely terrible in the 6th, which completely sunk his outing. After spending most of the game with an EXERA in the 3's, the 5th sent it up to 5.73 and the 6th inning meltdown left him with an 8.78.
This, however, is not a serious cause for alarm. RRS has historically been a poor pitcher in April who picks up steam and pitches much better the rest of the season. Here are his rate stats by month over his four year MLB career:
| Month | BA | OBP | SLG | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.250 | 0.338 | 0.477 | 11.4 | 7.6 |
| May | 0.224 | 0.281 | 0.241 | 7.7 | 20.0 |
| June | 0.188 | 0.284 | 0.344 | 12.2 | 29.7 |
| July | 0.261 | 0.326 | 0.446 | 6.8 | 14.8 |
| August | 0.241 | 0.309 | 0.389 | 8.1 | 17.1 |
| Sep/Oct | 0.269 | 0.325 | 0.418 | 7.8 | 13.0 |
And in many of those seasons, his velocity and command start out weak and picks up, just as his numbers do. He'll get better. In time, keeping him over Snell will seem more like the smarter move, unless Snell puts it together and becomes a better pitcher during his time in the pen... in which case that's a problem you'd like to have.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-27-2010 (Seattle 3, Kansas City 2)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Ian Snell | 0.638 | 0.000 | -0.453 | 1.091 | 0.000 | 5.76 | 16 |
| SEA | Adam Moore | -0.998 | -0.998 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | -1.776 | -2.048 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -1.379 | -0.437 | 0.000 | -0.942 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | 1.013 | -0.291 | 0.000 | 0.688 | 0.616 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jack Wilson | -1.340 | -1.150 | 0.000 | -0.190 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | 3.861 | 1.363 | 0.000 | 2.498 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 3.102 | 0.978 | 0.000 | 2.124 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | -2.094 | -0.091 | 0.000 | -1.501 | -0.502 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ken Griffey Jr | 0.115 | 0.115 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Eric Byrnes | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Shawn Kelley | 0.620 | 0.000 | 0.620 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.94 | 5 |
| SEA | Mark Lowe | -0.153 | 0.000 | -0.153 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 6.32 | 3 |
| SEA | David Aardsma | -0.609 | 0.000 | -0.609 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 10.13 | 3 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | Zack Greinke | 1.339 | 0.000 | 1.339 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.45 | 21 |
| KCR | Jason Kendall | -0.622 | -1.096 | 0.000 | 0.474 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Billy Butler | 1.595 | 1.199 | 0.000 | 0.396 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Alberto Callaspo | -1.475 | -0.292 | 0.000 | -1.183 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Alex Gordon | -0.308 | -0.491 | 0.000 | 0.026 | 0.157 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Yuniesky Betancourt | -2.195 | -0.991 | 0.000 | -1.204 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Scott Podsednik | -0.105 | -0.705 | 0.000 | 0.600 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Mitch Maier | 1.662 | 1.185 | 0.000 | 0.448 | 0.029 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | David DeJesus | 0.456 | -0.623 | 0.000 | 1.447 | -0.368 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Jose Guillen | -1.606 | -1.606 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | KCR Luckbox | 0.157 | 0.157 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Trey Hillman | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Josh Rupe | -0.102 | 0.000 | -0.102 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.60 | 1 |
| KCR | Rob Tejeda | -1.115 | 0.000 | -0.295 | -0.820 | 0.000 | ∞ | 0 |
| KCR | Bruce Chen | 1.319 | 0.000 | 1.205 | 0.114 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 5 |
| Kauffmann Stadium | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Players of the Game because picking only one is absurd:
Milton Bradley (3.861 NRuns: 1.363 hitting, 2.498 fielding)
Franklin Gutierrez (3.102 NRuns: 0.978 hitting, 2.124 fielding)
ICHIRO HURTS THIS TEAM WITH NEGATIVE NET RUNS (-2.094 NRuns: -0.091 hitting, -1.501 fielding, -0.502 running)
See what happens, Wak, when you use a reliever for multiple innings?: Shawn Kelley (0.620 pitching NRuns)
That pitcher's pretty good, you should use him more: Zack Greinke (1.339 pitching NRuns)
They used to be Mariners:
Yuniesky Betancourt (-2.195 NRuns: -0.991 hitting, -1.204 fielding... the GOAT)
Jose Guillen (-1.606 hitting NRuns)
******
There was no way Ian Snell was going to pitch himself out of a demotion to the bullpen today, but despite his initial trouble he actually pitched very well in the early innings. Both back to back base hits that led off the game were on groundballs past Chone Figgins, and he got a strikeout and pop out with the bases loaded in that frame before a tapback to the mound got him out of it. Even the leadoff double in the 2nd came on a groundball, and none of his outcomes before the inning ending lineout in the 3rd were negative. Even the leadoff walk and wild pitch to start the 4th were negated by a strikeout, and his flyball that led to a triple was negated by a groundout.
It was only the Royals blasting off in his final 1.1 frames (three line drives and a walk) that brought his EXERA hurtling back to Earth like an armaggeddonic meteor. Though Snell will now work out of the bullpen with Cliff Lee back, he showed a ton of reasons today why the team keeps trying to work him into a better pitcher.
This was still a cheese grater of a win, and it took Milton Bradley and Franklin Gutierrez capitalizing with men on for the Mariners to pull ahead. One other positive is that Wak FINALLY used a reliever for multiple frames after a long stretch of one inning outings, as Shawn Kelley finished up the 6th for Snell, and then worked a 1-2-3 7th. See, Wak, it can work! Also, Kudos for actually using the otherwise disused Kelley. Shawn's velocity was down, but he also wasn't working consistently. Perhaps a rhythm of consistent outings can help him get back to form.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-26-2010 (Kansas City 3, Seattle 1)
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Felix Hernandez | -0.277 | 0.000 | 0.493 | -0.770 | 0.000 | 4.46 | 21 |
| SEA | Rob Johnson | 0.812 | 0.812 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Casey Kotchman | -0.881 | -1.160 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Chone Figgins | -3.121 | -1.447 | 0.000 | -1.674 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jose Lopez | -1.782 | -1.808 | 0.000 | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Jack Wilson | -0.611 | -1.223 | 0.000 | 0.612 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Milton Bradley | 1.716 | -0.323 | 0.000 | 2.039 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Franklin Gutierrez | 2.228 | -0.216 | 0.000 | 2.444 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ichiro Suzuki | 0.237 | -0.151 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.388 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Ken Griffey Jr | -0.317 | -0.317 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | SEA Luckbox | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Don Wakamatsu | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Mike Sweeney | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Matt Tuiasosopo | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| SEA | Sean White | -0.660 | 0.000 | -0.660 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 10.55 | 3 |
| Team | Player | Net Runs | Hit | Pitch | Def | Base | EXERA | PitOuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCR | Kyle Davies | 0.451 | 0.000 | 0.451 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.42 | 18 |
| KCR | Jason Kendall | -1.527 | -1.426 | 0.000 | -0.101 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Billy Butler | 1.322 | 1.010 | 0.000 | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Alberto Callaspo | -1.897 | -1.197 | 0.000 | -0.700 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Alex Gordon | -0.238 | -0.401 | 0.000 | 0.163 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Yuniesky Betancourt | 0.652 | 0.454 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Scott Podsednik | 2.009 | -0.037 | 0.000 | 2.046 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Mitch Maier | 2.045 | -0.555 | 0.000 | 2.600 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | David DeJesus | -0.203 | -0.661 | 0.000 | 0.458 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Jose Guillen | -0.325 | -0.325 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | KCR Luckbox | 1.298 | 1.298 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Trey Hillman | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
| KCR | Brad Thompson | -0.558 | 0.000 | -0.558 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 19.01 | 1 |
| KCR | Dusty Hughes | -0.545 | 0.000 | -1.116 | 0.571 | 0.000 | 19.01 | 2 |
| KCR | Kyle Farnsworth | -0.394 | 0.000 | -0.394 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.02 | 5 |
| KCR | Bruce Chen | 0.515 | 0.000 | 0.515 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 1 |
| Kauffmann Stadium | 0.949 | 0.000 | 0.000 | -0.949 | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0 |
Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.228 NRuns: -0.216 hitting, 2.444 fielding)
Great day for center fielders: Mitch Maier (2.045 NRuns: -0.555 hitting, 2.600 fielding)
Bad day for 2nd basemen....
Chone Figgins (-3.121 NRuns: -1.447 hitting, -1.674 fielding... also our GOAT)
Alberto Callaspo (-1.897 NRuns: -1.197 hitting, -0.700 fielding)
Welcome back, Milton Bradley (1.716 NRuns: -0.323 hitting, 2.039 fielding)
... oh... it's you: Jack Wilson (-0.611 NRuns: -1.223 hitting, 0.612 fielding)
We also kind of gave the game away: KCR Luckbox (1.298 NRuns)
SEA hitting: -4.833 NRuns
******
And that's the Mariners' performance in a nutshell. One run in garbage time, knocked in by former Royal and current bench-hog Mike Sweeney, and nothing against the hittable Kyle Davies, who had pretty much an identically ordinary night to Felix Hernandez... only Hernandez watched a ball leave the yard and made a defensive miscue to help bring in another run. And that was pretty much the difference, as neither lineup had much else to offer.
Chone Figgins had a bad game defensively, letting several key balls get by him, but this is hardly just his fault. Aside from Sweendawg, only Rob Johnson of all people had an overall positive contribution at the plate today. This team doesn't need hitters so much as they just need to HIT.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
An updated look at the AL Central
Minnesota - The Twins didn't realize it, but their bullpen overhaul actually made them worse. Sure, they had to replace the injured Jesse Crain, but Jose Mijares and Juan Morillo (though the Twins went out of their way to get him on the roster, there's a reason the pitching-starved Rockies dumped him last season) have such bad control problems that they may actually pitch BELOW replacement level. R.A. Dickey is fine as a replacement arm, but swapping out Brian Duensing and punting Phillip Humber while relying on three replacement arms is not. The Twins now have a serious shot at 90 losses.
Kansas City - Alex Gordon's injury leads to Mitch Maier's promotion (he's not a bad bench bat) and more time for Alberto Callaspo. The team should see surprisingly little dropoff, as Gordon's defense was simply okay, his hitting was decent but not great, Maier adds some power off the bench and Callaspo isn't terrible at the plate. Brian Bannister supplants Horacio Ramirez in the rotation, and gives a bit above replacement level effort at best. For some reason, I expected Ramirez to be halfway decent. Huh. Anyway, the Royals' chances of .500 baseball go down from these developments, and 85 losses now seems a more solid prognosis.
Detroit - Backup catcher Matt treanor got hurt, and now something called Dane Sardinha backs up Gerald Laird, downgrading the offense just a bit (Treanor is a least a bit above replacement level). Losing Marcus Thames however (ribs) is a huge blow, even if Ryan Raburn's power and better ability to get on base makes him a solid replacement. Thames had other-worldly power, and even the best backup power bat is a big downgrade. Offsetting some of that damage is the return to Joel Zumaya to the bullpen, instantly bolstering an average unit. Also bolstering Detroit's chances is the increased likelihood that the halfway-decent Zach Miner will stick in the rotation, as Rick Porcello hasn't impressed as Jeremy Bonderman's fill-in. As it stands, 85-90 wins and the AL Central title is still an easy possibility.
Cleveland - Scott Lewis will spend a week or two on the DL with a forearm strain, meaning replacement innings from Aaron Laffey. The Indians turned over their bullpen, sending down Zach Jackson and bringing in the likes of Vinnie Chulk, Jensen Lewis and Tony Sipp, slightly above replacement level downgrades. This reduces the likelihood of significant innings from Zach Jackson, as the team likely won't give him a chance to start until later this season, if at all before September. This is the opening the Tigers may need to sneak off with the Central, as when we started the two teams were neck and neck. But this drops the Indians to a solid 85 win team.
Chicago White Sox - The team sent away struggling Mike MacDougal and decided to test drive replacement level Lance Broadway. He's a downgrade but this is already a bleh pitching staff hampered by a bad defense, so not much loss there. Jerry Owens is back as DeWayne Wise hits the DL with a separated shoulder, but it looks like an improved Brian Anderson will soak up most of the starts at CF. This team still sucks, on the 95-100 loss level.
Kansas City - Alex Gordon's injury leads to Mitch Maier's promotion (he's not a bad bench bat) and more time for Alberto Callaspo. The team should see surprisingly little dropoff, as Gordon's defense was simply okay, his hitting was decent but not great, Maier adds some power off the bench and Callaspo isn't terrible at the plate. Brian Bannister supplants Horacio Ramirez in the rotation, and gives a bit above replacement level effort at best. For some reason, I expected Ramirez to be halfway decent. Huh. Anyway, the Royals' chances of .500 baseball go down from these developments, and 85 losses now seems a more solid prognosis.
Detroit - Backup catcher Matt treanor got hurt, and now something called Dane Sardinha backs up Gerald Laird, downgrading the offense just a bit (Treanor is a least a bit above replacement level). Losing Marcus Thames however (ribs) is a huge blow, even if Ryan Raburn's power and better ability to get on base makes him a solid replacement. Thames had other-worldly power, and even the best backup power bat is a big downgrade. Offsetting some of that damage is the return to Joel Zumaya to the bullpen, instantly bolstering an average unit. Also bolstering Detroit's chances is the increased likelihood that the halfway-decent Zach Miner will stick in the rotation, as Rick Porcello hasn't impressed as Jeremy Bonderman's fill-in. As it stands, 85-90 wins and the AL Central title is still an easy possibility.
Cleveland - Scott Lewis will spend a week or two on the DL with a forearm strain, meaning replacement innings from Aaron Laffey. The Indians turned over their bullpen, sending down Zach Jackson and bringing in the likes of Vinnie Chulk, Jensen Lewis and Tony Sipp, slightly above replacement level downgrades. This reduces the likelihood of significant innings from Zach Jackson, as the team likely won't give him a chance to start until later this season, if at all before September. This is the opening the Tigers may need to sneak off with the Central, as when we started the two teams were neck and neck. But this drops the Indians to a solid 85 win team.
Chicago White Sox - The team sent away struggling Mike MacDougal and decided to test drive replacement level Lance Broadway. He's a downgrade but this is already a bleh pitching staff hampered by a bad defense, so not much loss there. Jerry Owens is back as DeWayne Wise hits the DL with a separated shoulder, but it looks like an improved Brian Anderson will soak up most of the starts at CF. This team still sucks, on the 95-100 loss level.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
An educated guess about the AL Central for 2009
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox
This will actually be a close race between the Indians and Tigers in a so-so division, and the eventual champ will probably finish in the 85-90 win range. The Indians have slowly rebuilt with a solid young core of youngsters and productive low-cost vets. They easily have the best pitching staff in the division (though still a step below the millionaire Yankee and Red Sox rotations) and a decent defense. Their offense in sum won’t wow you but they have a bevy of productive bats.
The Tigers have gradually reloaded the lineup and while they never will score a ton of runs playing in cavernous Comerica Park, they pack enough power to provide a great defense and an average pitching staff with sufficient support. The Tigers also showed they were willing to unload veteran dead weight, such as Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers and Gary Sheffield, to play younger, more productive players. While they have a better defense than Cleveland, the Indians have a better pitching staff, and the two teams are nearly dead even overall. It would not surprise me to see the AL Central come down to a one game playoff between these two.
One surprise improvement this season will come from the Kansas City Royals, who, while making a series of unproductive pickups over the last couple years (Kyle Davies, Jose Guillen, Willie Bloomquist, Coco Crisp), made their biggest defensive improvement without adding anybody: they moved David DeJesus, a solid CF, to LF, where he becomes one of the position’s top defenders. The emergence of excellent defender Mike Aviles at SS now gives the Royals one of the AL’s best defenses. They won’t score enough runs to compete and their pitching staff still has a few tomato cans, but they can easily play .500 ball.
Fans are high on the Twins, but don’t count on them winning more than 80 games this season, if they can even manage 70-75. Their defense gets help from speedsters like Denard Span and Carlos Gomez, but they still have a few holes, their offense lacks consistency and pop (even with Joe Mauer) and they did little to improve their nondescript, mediocre pitching staff.
The White Sox offense will do a decent job despite some lineup holes (like the revolving door in CF, the fading AJ Pierzynski at catcher and the developing Chris Getz at 2B). But what seals their doom is a weak pitching staff coupled with a terrible defense. Jermaine Dye is a horrible RF, Alexei Ramirez is not a good fielder wherever he plays, none of their fielders are standout defenders and bench players like Wilson Betemit don’t make good defensive replacements. Add in home run friendly U.S. Cellular Field, and the ChiSox should lead the league in runs… allowed. This team likely reaches 95 losses, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen will likely lose their jobs, and many of the incumbent vets (Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle) should get the old heave-ho via trade or free agency during or after 2009.
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox
This will actually be a close race between the Indians and Tigers in a so-so division, and the eventual champ will probably finish in the 85-90 win range. The Indians have slowly rebuilt with a solid young core of youngsters and productive low-cost vets. They easily have the best pitching staff in the division (though still a step below the millionaire Yankee and Red Sox rotations) and a decent defense. Their offense in sum won’t wow you but they have a bevy of productive bats.
The Tigers have gradually reloaded the lineup and while they never will score a ton of runs playing in cavernous Comerica Park, they pack enough power to provide a great defense and an average pitching staff with sufficient support. The Tigers also showed they were willing to unload veteran dead weight, such as Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers and Gary Sheffield, to play younger, more productive players. While they have a better defense than Cleveland, the Indians have a better pitching staff, and the two teams are nearly dead even overall. It would not surprise me to see the AL Central come down to a one game playoff between these two.
One surprise improvement this season will come from the Kansas City Royals, who, while making a series of unproductive pickups over the last couple years (Kyle Davies, Jose Guillen, Willie Bloomquist, Coco Crisp), made their biggest defensive improvement without adding anybody: they moved David DeJesus, a solid CF, to LF, where he becomes one of the position’s top defenders. The emergence of excellent defender Mike Aviles at SS now gives the Royals one of the AL’s best defenses. They won’t score enough runs to compete and their pitching staff still has a few tomato cans, but they can easily play .500 ball.
Fans are high on the Twins, but don’t count on them winning more than 80 games this season, if they can even manage 70-75. Their defense gets help from speedsters like Denard Span and Carlos Gomez, but they still have a few holes, their offense lacks consistency and pop (even with Joe Mauer) and they did little to improve their nondescript, mediocre pitching staff.
The White Sox offense will do a decent job despite some lineup holes (like the revolving door in CF, the fading AJ Pierzynski at catcher and the developing Chris Getz at 2B). But what seals their doom is a weak pitching staff coupled with a terrible defense. Jermaine Dye is a horrible RF, Alexei Ramirez is not a good fielder wherever he plays, none of their fielders are standout defenders and bench players like Wilson Betemit don’t make good defensive replacements. Add in home run friendly U.S. Cellular Field, and the ChiSox should lead the league in runs… allowed. This team likely reaches 95 losses, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen will likely lose their jobs, and many of the incumbent vets (Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle) should get the old heave-ho via trade or free agency during or after 2009.
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