The key for the Cards, aside from some requisite big plays on offense, will be to win the field position battle on special teams (which is very possible as Cards punter Ben Graham is one of the NFL's best punters) and try to pin Aaron Rodgers back, forcing the Pack to drive the length of the field to score again and again. If they can get Pack drives to stall outside the 25 yard line, they've got a good chance as Mason Crosby is one of the NFL's worst kickers... though being indoors may help him.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
Favorite: Packers (67.6%)
Team Efficiency (Using FO's Weighted Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)):
Packers: 30.3% (2nd)... Offense DVOA: 22.5% (4th)... Defense: -14.0% (2nd)... Special: -6.2% (32nd)
Cardinals: 10.5% (13th)... Offense DVOA: 8.8% (13th)... Defense: -0.1% (12th)... Special: 1.6% (11th)
Packers Offense (with grade):
Points Per Drive: 2.33 (A)
Drive Success Rate: .665 (C)
Turnovers per: .107 (B)
Offense Line Run Blocking: B-
Left End: F
LT: C-
Interior: A+
RT: C
Right End: B+
Pass Protection: Conditional F*
The Conditional F: Green Bay ranked near the bottom in adjusted sacks... but Aaron Rodgers also had a documented problem with staying in the pocket for far too long, which obviously facilitated more sacks. The run blocking numbers indicate parts of the line need work, and with a less hesitant QB the numbers may still be below average, but I'm going to label the F as conditional. The evidence indicates this isn't a Grade F pass blocking group.
QB: Aaron Rodgers: A (Rushing: A+... Camping in Pocket: A++)
RB: Ryan Grant: B (Receiving: B)
RB: Ahman Green: C
RB: Brandon Jackson: D (Receiving: A+)
WR: Donald Driver: B
WR: Greg Jennings: B
WR: James Jones: C-
WR: Jordy Nelson: A+
TE: Jermichael Finley: A
TE: Donald Lee: F
TE: Spencer Havner: A
Packers defense (Base 3-4):
Overall: B (Momentum Weighted*: A)
* - Weighed to emphasize late season performances over early season performances
Run Defense: B-
vs left end sweeps: C
Right DE: C
Interior run defense: A-
Left DE: C+
vs right end sweeps: B
Pass Defense: B
Defensive line vs rush: A-
Pass rush: C
vs #1 WR: A+
vs #2 WR: C+
vs Other WR: B+
vs TE: A
vs RB: B
Packers Special Teams:
Kicker: D (Kickoffs: D)
Kick returns: C-
Punting: F
Punt returns: C
******
Cardinals Offense (with grade):
Points Per Drive: 1.84 (C)
Drive Success Rate: .679 (C)
Turnovers per: .176 (F)
Offense Line Run Blocking: C
Left End: A
LT: C
Interior: C-
RT: C+
Right End: C-
Pass Protection: Conditional B
Likewise, Arizona gets a conditional B because Kurt Warner has an amazingly quick releases, which offsets any shortcomings in the pass protection. If the run blocking is any indication, the line is probably more like a Grade C pocket than a Grade B.
QB: Kurt Warner: B+ (Religious Obsession: A++++)
RB: Beanie Wells: C (Receiving: A)
RB: Tim Hightower: D+ (Receiving: B- ... Touchdown Vulturing: A)
Also watch out for Larod Stephens-Howling, who has caught a few passes out of the backfield for the Cards this season. He's not that great, though.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald: B
WR: Steve Breaston: B
WR: Anquan Boldin: C
WR: Early Doucet: B
WR: Jerheme Urban: D
TE: Ben Patrick: A
TE: Anthony Becht: D
TE: Stephen Spach: F
Cardinals defense (Base 3-4):
Overall: C (Momentum Weighted*: C)
* - Weighed to emphasize late season performances over early season performances
Run Defense: B-
vs left end sweeps: C
Right DE: C
Interior run defense: C
Left DE: A-
vs right end sweeps: C
Pass Defense: B
Defensive line vs rush: C+
Pass rush: C+
vs #1 WR: D
vs #2 WR: A+
vs Other WR: B
vs TE: C
vs RB: C
Cardinals Special Teams:
Kicker: C+ (Kickoffs: C)
Kick returns: C
Punting: A-
Punt returns: D+
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