2010 NFL Wildcard Playoff Preview, Part 3: Ravens at Patriots

I'm pressed for time so the following will be quick and dirty, with ratings only. The only quick thought I'll offer is that the Sagarin ratings ignore two key factors: The Patriots defense has a lot of holes, and added to the loss of Tom Brady's favorite receiver Wes Welker, this could go the other way, and badly.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Favorite: Patriots (68.7%)

Team Efficiency (Using FO's Weighted Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)):

Ravens: 32.5% (1st)... Offense DVOA: 16.9% (8th)... Defense: -13.6% (3rd)... Special: 2.0% (8th)
Patriots: 28.3% (4th)... Offense DVOA: 29.7% (1st)... Defense: 2.6% (17th)... Special: 1.2% (13th)



Ravens Offense (with grade):

Points Per Drive: 2.03 (B)
Drive Success Rate: .702 (C)
Turnovers per: .112 (B)

Offense Line Run Blocking: B+
Left End: C
LT: C
Interior: B
RT: C
Right End: A+
Pass Protection: C

QB: Joe Flacco: B (Rushing: F)
RB: Ray Rice: B+ (Receiving: B)
RB: Willis McGahee: B+ (Receiving: D)
RB: LeRon McClain: B (Receiving: C)

WR: Derrick Mason: C (Running plays: A+)
WR: Mark Clayton: D-
WR: Kelly Washington: A
WR: Demetrius Williams: B+
TE: Todd Heap: A

Ravens defense (Base 3-4):

Overall: B+ (Momentum Weighted*: B)

* - Weighed to emphasize late season performances over early season performances

Run Defense: B+
vs left end sweeps: B
Right DE: B+
Interior run defense: C
Left DE: A
vs right end sweeps: A-

Pass Defense: B
Defensive line vs rush: A+
Pass rush: D
vs #1 WR: A
vs #2 WR C+
vs Other WR: D+
vs TE: A+
vs RB: A

Ravens Special Teams:

Kicker: C- (Kickoffs: B+)
Kick returns: B+
Punting: C
Punt returns: C



Patriots Offense (with grade):

Points Per Drive: 2.34 (B+)
Drive Success Rate: .746 (A)
Turnovers per: .126 (C)

Offense Line Run Blocking: B
Left End: C+
LT: C
Interior: B+
RT: C-
Right End: D+
Pass Protection: A

QB: Tom Brady: A+ (Rushing: F)
RB: Laurence Maroney: C (Receiving: C)
RB: Kevin Faulk: A+ (Receiving: C)
RB: Fred Taylor: A
RB: Sammy Morris: C- (Receiving: A)
RB: Benjarvus Green-Ellis: C

WR: (The Injured) Wes Welker: A- (Current knee structure: F)
WR: Randy Moss: A (Consistent determination to win: C-)
WR: Julian Edelman: C
WR: Sam Aiken: D+
WR: Joey Galloway: Please retire
TE: Ben Watson: A+
TE: Chris Baker: A

Patriots defense (Base 3-4):

Overall: C (Momentum Weighted*: C)

* - Weighed to emphasize late season performances over early season performances

Run Defense: B-
vs left end sweeps: C
Right DE: A-
Interior run defense: F
Left DE: C
vs right end sweeps: D-

Pass Defense: D+
Defensive line vs rush: D
Pass rush: C
vs #1 WR: D
vs #2 WR: B
vs Other WR: B-
vs TE: D
vs RB: D

Patriots Special Teams:

Kicker: C (Kickoffs: B)
Kick returns: D+
Punting: D
Punt returns: A