As a Vegas native, with access to teeming masses of sportsbook data (as well as parents who regularly brought home parlay and teaser cards), I dabbled in speculative handicapping while growing up, studying teams and trying to predict games, with understandably middling results. Obviously, as a minor, I didn't wager any actual money, and once of-age I maybe placed bets on games a handful of times.
Anyway, I'm conducting a sizable experiment on handicapping games using Sagarin ratings. I crunched predictions for every NFL, NHL, NBA and college basketball game today, and I'm going to note the results relative to the predictions. In other words, I expect the results to deviate from the predictions... the questions is how much and in what direction, if a correlation shows up.
I had been toying with the Sagarin numbers for a while, in using them to toy with Yahoo's league ranker polling system and in making predictions for Ballhype's Golden Picks contest. When I haven't deviated from Sagarin's ratings, I find the picks straight up are accurate roughly 55-65% of the time.
Ballhype's system rewards fractions of points for picking successful favorites and several points for picking successful underdogs, while docking you one point for every incorrect pick period. This system is allegedly gamed very easily by consistently making an astute series of underdog picks: a couple of players win regularly at the game this way, though the reward is nothing more than being a featured user on Ballhype's front page.
But of course, handicapped picks must be made against the spread. Since Sagarin uses a unique scoring system somewhat irrelevant to the scoring in each respective sport, there may not be a direct correlation between the scoring difference using Sagarin's White Owl Predictor and the actual score of the actual game in question. It can show the scope of difference in performance ability between teams, but does it consistently match the likely difference in score?
Google research has turned up little data: As with most subjects, research posted on the subject is typically shallow and poorly thought out at best. On paper, I will pick each individual game against the spread using the adjusted Predictor scores relative to the point spread to determine my initial picks. I'll note the results and look to note any sustained differences between the predicted margin of victory and the results. I expect plenty of white noise and variance in the short term: The key will be to find long run correlations.
Picks below the jump. Warning: Lots of raw data, listed in a clunky straightforward format. Have some painkillers ready if you're going to read them all. I'll try and streamline the data into a spreadsheet or chart format as I go along.
NBA Picks
Dallas (95.07) at Detroit (92.20+3.84 = 96.04)
Spread: Dallas -4.5
Pick: Detroit +4.5 (-110)
(Over 185)
LA Clippers (83.63) at Oklahoma City (95.28+3.84 = 99.12)
Spread: Oklahoma City -5.5
Pick: Oklahoma City -5.5 (-110)
(under 183)
Toronto (91.58) at Phoenix (93.15+3.84 = 96.99)
Spread: Phoenix -8
Pick: Toronto +8 (-110)
(under 232)
Houston (94.41) at LA Lakers (93.35+3.84 = 97.19)
Spread: LA Lakers -9
Pick: Houston +9 (-110)
(under 200.5)
NHL:
Minnesota (-115)
Atlanta (-150)
San Jose (+110)
NFL:
Jacksonville (11.47) at NY Jets (26.91+0.95 = 27.86)
Spread: NY Jets -6.5
Pick: NY Jets -6.5
(Under 41)
Denver (26.34) at Washington (10.10 + 0.95 = 11.05)
Spread: Denver -3.5
Pick: Denver -3.5
(Over 36.5)
Cincinnati (27.08) at Pittsburgh (25.09+0.95 = 26.04)
Spread: Pittsburgh -7
Pick: Cincinnati +7
(Over 42)
Buffalo (15.69) at Tennessee (13.43+0.95 = 14.38)
Spread: Tennessee -7.5
Pick: Buffalo +7.5
(Under 41)
Detroit (8.71) at Minnesota (24.77+0.95 = 25.72)
Spread: Minnesota -17
Pick: Minnesota -17
(Under 47)
New Orleans (31.34) at St Louis (4.18+0.95 = 5.13)
Spread: New Orleans -14
Pick: New Orleans -14
(Under 50.5)
Atlanta (26.20) at Carolina (14.79+0.95 = 15.74)
Spread: Atlanta -1.5
Pick: Atlanta -1.5
(Under 43.5)
Tampa Bay (9.91) at Miami (24.31+0.95 = 25.26)
Spread: Miami -10
Pick: Miami -10
(Under 43)
Kansas City (11.28) at Oakland (9.82+0.95 = 10.77)
Spread: Oakland -2.5
Pick: Kansas City +2.5
(Under 36.5)
Seattle (17.76) at Arizona (23.43+0.95 = 24.38)
Spread: Arizona -8.5
Pick: Seattle +8.5
(Under 46.5)
Philadelphia (23.52) at San Diego (23.13+0.95 = 24.08)
Spread: Pick Em
Pick: San Diego (PK)
(Over 47)
Dallas (25.57) at Green Bay (22.35+0.95 = 23.30)
Spread: Dallas -3
Pick: Green Bay +3
(Over 47.5)
New England (31.25) at Indianapolis (27.96+0.95 = 28.91)
Spread: Indianapolis -2.5
Pick: New England +2.5
(Over 48)
Baltimore (28.07) at Cleveland (10.44+0.95 = 11.38)
Spread: Baltimore -11
Pick: Baltimore -11
(Under 39.5)
NCAA Football:
East Carolina (69.37) at Tulsa (68.05+3.07 = 71.12)
Spread: Tulsa -4.5
Pick: East Carolina +4.5
NCAA Basketball:
UC Irvine (70.06) at Texas (87.44+3.98 = 91.42)
Spread: Texas -25.5
Pick: UC Irvine +25.5
George Washington (73.36) at UNC Wilmington (68.71+3.98 = 72.69)
Spread: George Washington -2.5
Pick: UNC Wilmington +2.5
Wake Forest (84.31) at East Carolina (67.66+3.98 = 70.64)
Spread: Wake Forest -16
Pick: East Carolina +16
William & Mary (69.71) at Harvard (66.89+3.98 = 70.87)
Spread: Harvard -4.5
Pick: William & Mary +4.5
Western Michigan (71.57) at Detroit (68.77+3.98 = 72.75)
Spread: Detroit -4.5
Pick: Western Michigan +4.5
FIU (66.14) at Tulsa (78.08+3.98 = 82.06)
Spread: Tulsa -22.5
Pick: FIU +22.5
Dartmouth (61.46) at George Mason (79.22+3.98 = 83.20)
Spread: George Mason -20
Pick: George Mason -20
Oregon State (73.56) at Texas Tech (80.47+3.98 = 84.45)
Spread: Texas Tech -9
Pick: Texas Tech -9
Valparaiso (72.40) vs North Carolina (94.64+3.98 = 98.62)
Spread: North Carolina -22.5
Pick: North Carolina -22.5
Brown (67.19) at Virginia Tech (80.90+3.98 = 84.88)
Spread: Virginia Tech -21
Pick: Brown +21
Cal Poly SLO (67.19) at Stanford (84.42+3.98 = 88.40)
Spread: Stanford -18.5
Pick: Stanford -18.5
Middle Tennessee (71.14) at Ohio (74.07+3.98 = 78.05)
Spread: Ohio -6
Pick: Ohio -6
Sacramento State (60.35) at South Alabama (74.85+3.98 = 78.83)
Spread: South Alabama -12.5
Pick: South Alabama -12.5
Samford (67.79) at UAB (81.79+3.98 = 85.77)
Spread: UAB -6
Pick: UAB -6
Wis-Green Bay (76.09) at Kent State (78.38+3.98 = 82.36)
Spread: Kent State -7.5
Pick: Wis Green Bay +7.5
Loyola Marymount (64.27) at Montana (72.88+3.98 = 76.86)
Spread: Montana -8
Pick: Montana -8
Boise State (74.28) at North Dakota (62.99+3.98 = 66.97)
Spread: Boise State -16
Pick: North Dakota +16
Winston-Salem (58.03) at UC Davis (64.95+3.98 = 68.93)
Spread: UC Davis -11
Pick: Winston-Salem +11
Colorado State (72.48) at Oregon (80.47+3.98 = 84.45)
Spread: Oregon -16.5
Pick: Colorado State +16.5
Belmont (75.23) at Wright State (77.06+3.98 = 81.04)
Spread: Wright State -7
Pick: Belmont +7
Portland State (74.63) at Washington (85.36+3.98 = 89.34)
Spread: Washington -17
Pick: Portland State +17
Loyola-MD (69.94) at West Virginia (87.10+3.98 = 91.08)
Spread: West Virginia -25.5
Pick: Loyola-MD +25.5
Austin Peay (71.98) at Akron (78.28+3.98 = 82.26)
Spread: Akron -12.5
Pick: Austin Peay +12.5
Northern Arizona (69.75) at Arizona (84.70+3.98 = 88.68)
Spread: Arizona -17
Pick: Arizona -17
Fordham (67.74) at Fairfield (71.56+3.98 = 75.54)
Spread: Fairfield -12.5
Pick: Fordham +12.5
Idaho State (68.96) at Bradley (78.27+3.98 = 82.25)
Spread: Bradley -12.5
Pick: Bradley -12.5
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