Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-31-2010 (Minnesota 5, Seattle 4)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
MIN	Francisco Liriano	0.616	0.000	0.616	0.000	0.000	3.36	18
MIN	Joe Mauer	-0.709	-0.392	0.000	-0.317	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Justin Morneau	1.552	1.172	0.000	0.439	-0.059	0.00	0
MIN	Michael Cuddyer	0.296	1.191	0.000	-0.895	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Nick Punto	-0.271	-0.520	0.000	0.249	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	JJ Hardy	-1.890	-0.897	0.000	-0.559	-0.434	0.00	0
MIN	Delmon Young	2.039	1.457	0.000	0.582	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Denard Span	-0.090	-0.297	0.000	0.207	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jason Kubel	-0.441	-0.044	0.000	-0.397	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jim Thome	-0.722	-0.288	0.000	0.000	-0.434	0.00	0
MIN	Alexi Casilla	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Brendan Harris	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jesse Crain	0.424	0.000	0.424	0.000	0.000	0.68	3
MIN	Matt Guerrier	0.143	0.000	0.143	0.000	0.000	3.02	3
MIN	Jon Rauch	-0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000	0.000	6.17	3
MIN	MIN Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Ron Gardenhire	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Doug Fister	0.160	0.000	0.160	0.000	0.000	4.04	23
SEA	Rob Johnson	-1.122	-1.122	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-1.446	-0.936	0.000	-0.510	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.318	0.840	0.000	0.231	0.247	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	1.850	0.365	0.000	1.485	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	1.598	1.595	0.000	0.003	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	0.608	-0.284	0.000	0.892	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.152	0.234	0.000	0.918	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.401	-0.228	0.000	-0.173	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-0.651	-0.651	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.390	-0.390	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-0.324	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.324	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.208	-0.208	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000	0.000	15.95	1
SEA	Brandon League	0.279	0.000	0.279	0.000	0.000	1.89	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.317	0.317	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	2.983	0.000	0.000	-2.983	0.000	0.00	0

How Net Runs works

Player of the Game: Delmon Young (2.039 NRuns: 1.457 hitting, 0.582 fielding)
Also pretty good: Justin Morneau (1.552 NRuns: 1.172 hitting, 0.439 fielding, -0.059 running)

Mariners Player of the Game: Jose Lopez (1.850 NRuns: 0.365 hitting, 1.485 fielding)
Mariners with more than 1.000 NRuns contributed: 4 (Lopez, Josh Wilson, Franklin Gutierrez, Chone Figgins)

Mariners defense: 2.846 NRuns
Rob Johnson and Matt Tuiasosopo: -2.058 hitting NRuns
Mike Sweeney and pinch hitters (Griffey, Kotchman): -1.249 hitting NRuns
Rest of Mariners hitters: 2.522 NRuns

Goat: JJ Hardy (-1.890 NRuns: -0.897 hitting, -0.559 fielding, -0.434 running)

******

I'm tired of talking about the futility of losses in what's become a lost season, so I'll focus on the simpler, productive details.

Francisco Liriano and Doug Fister pitched much better games than their lines indicate. The final was 5-4 but had more of the makings of a 3-2 game. Fister's had better games but not only did he show veteran caliber backbone in shaking off five flash runs and pitching into the 8th, but 5 of his 7 full innings were 1-2-3 frames. Save for the two bad frames (flyballs and line drives are going to happen: It's just a matter of minimizing them), Fister was solid yet again. Those of you waiting for him to plummet back to replacement level Earth... once again have to wait another week.

Liriano seemed like he got into a lot of trouble, and... well... he kind of did, but killed a lot of rallies with big strikeout after big strikeout... though I guess getting to face Rob Johnson and Matt Tuiasosopo certainly helps.

Don Wakamatsu finally got the hint with Josh Wilson and let the surprisingly productive shortstop hit during a pressure situation in the 9th, only to see Wilson come up with an RBI single. Probably not a bad idea to try that again. Actually, Wak also made good moves in pinch hitting Griffey and Kotchman, even if both produced rally-killer outs to end the game. Griffey and Kotchman are much better bets to produce in a tight spot than Rob and Tui.

Brandon League's going to get kudos for getting the M's out of a two runner, no out jam in the top 9th, and truth be told he did a fine job with three groundballs. But the credit belongs mainly to a guy who has caught a lot of flak lately: Jose Lopez.

On a double play ball, Lopez could have gone for the 5-4-3 and conceded the run. He also could have checked Justin Morneau back to 3rd and taken the out at 1st (though that would have put runners at 2nd and 3rd and Wak likely would have responded with yet another stupid intentional walk). Instead, Morneau helped Lopez out by breaking for home a little too soon and being forced to commit to his ill-fated run, giving Lopez the easy decision to throw home and get Morneau for the 1st out AND save a run. Lopez already had made a solid play by keeping Cuddyer's ground in the infield (0.481 NRuns), but added another 0.218 runs by getting the out at home.

Lopez then finished the inning by snagging the other two League grounders and converting both into outs. Lopez's work that inning was worth 1.485 NRuns, pretty much cleaning up the mess that Ryan Rowland-Smith had left Brandon League. Nicely done.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-30-2010 (Anaheim 9, Seattle 7)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ian Snell	-0.738	0.000	-0.749	0.011	0.000	6.05	12
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	0.637	2.354	0.000	-0.432	-1.285	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.803	0.722	0.000	0.081	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.426	0.100	0.000	-0.526	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.930	0.930	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.420	0.816	0.000	0.000	-0.396	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.027	-1.061	0.000	0.893	0.141	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.593	-0.778	0.000	1.371	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	1.942	1.319	0.000	0.623	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-0.839	-0.839	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jesus Colome	0.169	0.000	0.169	0.000	0.000	3.08	3
SEA	Kanekoa Texeira	-1.616	0.000	-1.768	0.152	0.000	26.61	2
SEA	Shawn Kelley	1.587	0.000	1.478	0.109	0.000	-0.80	7
SEA	David Aardsma	-0.995	0.000	-1.102	0.107	0.000	32.07	1
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.135	0.135	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Joe Saunders	-3.180	0.000	-3.180	0.000	0.000	10.61	13
ANA	Bobby Wilson	-0.646	-0.646	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Napoli	-0.903	-1.093	0.000	0.190	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	5.113	2.596	0.000	2.517	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Maicer Izturis	-1.372	-1.453	0.000	0.081	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	1.347	1.437	0.000	0.478	-0.568	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	1.893	1.096	0.000	0.797	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Reggie Willits	1.322	0.569	0.000	0.538	0.215	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	-1.127	-0.194	0.000	-0.933	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	0.809	1.487	0.000	0.000	-0.678	0.00	0
ANA	Kevin Frandsen	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Trevor Bell	-0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000	0.000	4.84	5
ANA	Jason Bulger	-0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000	0.000	4.97	4
ANA	Kevin Jepsen	0.324	0.000	0.324	0.000	0.000	0.43	2
ANA	Fernando Rodney	-0.686	0.000	-0.686	0.000	0.000	10.21	3
ANA	ANA Luckbox	1.678	1.678	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	-0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Angels Stadium	6.864	0.000	0.000	-6.864	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Howie Kendrick (5.113 NRuns: 2.596 hitting, 2.517 fielding)

Angels with contributions above 1.000 NRuns: 4 (Kendrick, Aybar, Matsui and Willits)

Angels Luckbox: 1.678 NRuns

Great hitting and bad everything else: Eliezer Alfonzo (0.637 NRuns: 2.354 hitting, -0.432 fielding, -1.285 running)
Eliezer's catcher's interference: -1.000 NRuns

Mariners Player of the Game: Ichiro (1.942 NRuns: 1.319 hitting, 0.623 fielding)

Shawn Kelley: 1.478 pitching NRuns
Jesus Colome: 0.169 pitching NRuns
All other Mariners pitching: -3.619 NRuns

Mariners hitting: 3.563 NRuns
Mariners defense: 2.389 NRuns
Mariners baserunning: -1.540 NRuns

Goat: Joe Saunders (-3.180 pitching NRuns... 10.61 EXERA)

Mariners scapegoats: Kanekoa Texeira and David Aardsma (-2.611 NRuns: -2.870 pitching, 0.259 fielding)

******

Ian Snell managed to completely undo a decent 4 innings with two walks to start the 5th. Both walks were worth a total of -1.060 NRuns, and Snell came into the 5th with a total of 0.311 pitching NRuns, good for a 4.14 EXERA and an indicator that he was pitching just fine.

So here's why Jesus Colome wasn't credited with -2.000 NRuns worth of meltdown in that frame. When he entered the game with men on 1st and 2nd and nobody out, the Angels had a run expectancy of 1.598 NRuns. In other words, you expect the average team in that situation to score about 1.6 runs. If the offense comes away empty handed, the pitching/defense somehow saved 1.6 runs.

So here's Colome's line blow by blow. All run expectancy numbers are derived from a composite of 2005-2009 season data and park adjusted to Angels Stadium:

- Maicer Izturis flies out to center. Colome loses 0.059 NRuns for the flyball while Franklin Gutierrez saves 0.644 NRuns in catching it. However, Reggie Willits tags up at 2nd and takes 3rd, adding 0.215 runs to the Angels' expectancy and costing Franklin 0.215 NRuns since he controlled the ball when Willits took his base. With men on 1st and 3rd and one out the run expectancy is now 1.228 runs.

- Colome then walks Bobby Abreu to load the bases, losing 0.498 NRuns in doing so and raising the Angels run expectancy to 1.726 runs.

- Hideki Matsui pops out for the 2nd out. As pop ups are damn near an automatic out, Colome receives full credit for getting Matsui to swing underneath a pitch and produce an easy out, earning Colome 0.918 NRuns. With two outs and the bases loaded the Angels' run expectancy is now 0.808 runs.

- Colome walks Juan Rivera to force in a run. Since the run expectancy remains the same and the play scored a run, Colome gets docked 1.000 NRuns.

- Colome strikes out Mike Napoli to end the inning. Colome gets 0.808 NRuns as the Angels' run expectancy drops, of course, to 0.

Colome's final tally in that frame? 0.169 NRuns, good for a 3.03 EXERA. You saw him walk two guys, one walk forcing in a run, and already disliking him for his reputation as a fringe fireballer you likely gave him all the credit for the damage in that frame.

However, he came in with the run expectancy at nearly two runs thanks to the two Ian Snell walks that started the inning, and the Mariners came away only having allowed only one run. While the two walks did a lot of damage, the pop up and strikeout were just as huge, as the higher the run expectancy gets, the more critical every out becomes. This is the beauty of Net Runs: There's no need to calculate a leverage index, because run expectancy already has it built in. Riskier base/out situations make outs and bases more valuable. Colome's walks were huge. And so were his outs, because they severely limited the Angels' potential damage and did not allow them to advance baserunners.

I'm not writing this as a treatise to defend the guy. I'm in agreement with the saber status quo that Colome should not have been called up back in April and should have had to show in Tacoma that he had the control and secondary stuff to get MLB hitters out. I agree that, of the 11 current Mariner pitchers, he probably helps the team least right now.

But today is not necessarily an example of Jesus Colome's liabilities. He walked into a bad situation in the 5th, and any pitcher giving an average effort in this situation still would have allowed 1-2 runs. Shawn Kelley or Kanekoa Texeira probably don't do much better with two on and nobody out. That Colome allowed only one run was an accomplishment... a minor accomplishment, but one nonetheless.

Now... speaking of Kanekoa, he was awful today. And David Aardsma was awful today as well. Defensive miscues were not the key to their disaster innings... save for Eliezer Alfonzo getting called for catcher's interference in the 6th to produce one of the M's two runs. But Texeira prior to that call walked in a run and helped load the bags to begin with with a line drive, two flyballs and a walk.

David Aardsma led off the 9th with a walk, got a flyout, allowed a liner and then gave up the fatal flyball that carried over the fence for Howie Kendrick. Of the four batters he faced, two of the outcomes were okay (if you consider the flyball that happened to carry over the fence "okay" and/or unlucky) and two were awful.

Going back to Alfonzo, he quickly wiped out the goodwill around his three run bomb (2.060 NRuns... remember the M's run expectancy indicates the M's expect to score some runs with men on there), and to a lesser extent the runner he caught stealing in the 3rd (0.678 NRuns), with some examples of why he wasn't on a big league roster in the first place, running into an out at 3B in the 4th (-0.779 NRuns), hitting into a double play in the 9th (-1.013 NRuns) and the aforementioned catcher's interference in the 6th (-1.000 NRuns) that forced in a run. Rarely will you see a guy pile up such a grab bag of big plays both for and against his team in a single game, let alone his on-field debut with said team.

Howie Kendrick's walkoff bomb capped off what has to be one of the best single game Net Runs performances I've seen from a position player this season. He not only produced over 2 runs at the plate but prevented over 2 runs in the field at 2B.

At 30 losses and counting and 11 games under .500, the M's don't have a lot of room left for error... if you still think they have a shot at the division title in the first place.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-29-2010 (Anaheim 5, Seattle 1, 10 innings)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	-0.318	0.000	-0.895	0.577	0.000	5.42	24
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.757	-0.647	0.000	-0.110	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-0.648	-0.950	0.000	0.898	-0.596	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-1.487	-0.786	0.000	-0.811	0.110	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.216	-0.091	0.000	-0.125	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.320	-1.084	0.000	0.764	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-0.504	-0.788	0.000	0.284	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	2.500	0.100	0.000	2.259	0.141	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	1.308	0.166	0.000	0.786	0.356	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-1.732	-1.732	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Brandon League	0.490	0.000	0.349	0.141	0.000	2.30	4
SEA	SEA Luckbox	1.682	1.421	0.000	0.261	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Jered Weaver	1.584	0.000	1.448	0.136	0.000	2.76	21
ANA	Bobby Wilson	-0.660	-0.053	0.000	-0.607	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kendry Morales	2.804	2.804	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	-1.221	-0.830	0.000	-0.157	-0.234	0.00	0
ANA	Maicer Izturis	-0.512	-0.512	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	-1.623	-1.187	0.000	-0.436	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Ryan	-1.307	-0.938	0.000	-0.369	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Torii Hunter	0.135	0.135	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	2.652	0.767	0.000	1.775	0.110	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	-0.610	-0.610	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Francisco Rodriguez	1.005	0.000	0.576	0.429	0.000	2.09	6
ANA	Brian Fuentes	0.538	0.000	0.538	0.000	0.000	0.00	3
ANA	Reggie Willits	0.377	-0.670	0.000	1.047	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kevin Frandsen	-0.141	-0.141	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	ANA Luckbox	1.528	1.528	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	-0.261	-0.261	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Angels Stadium	3.978	0.000	0.000	-3.978	0.000	0.00	0

Injury Player of the Game: Kendry Morales (2.804 hitting NRuns... 2.562 on the walkoff HR)

Mariners Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.500 NRuns: 0.100 hitting, 2.259 fielding, 0.141 running)

Tui's bad tag-up for 3B in the 4th: -0.596 NRuns
All other Mariners baserunning: 0.607 NRuns

Chone's fatal E-4 in the 10th: -1.220 NRuns
All other Mariners defense: 5.883 NRuns
Brandon League's contribution in that 10th inning: -0.079 NRuns
League's contribution in the 9th: 0.428 NRuns

Positive Mariners contributions: 3 (Gutierrez, Ichiro and Brandon League)
Negative Mariners contributions: 8 (9 if you include manager Don Wakamatsu)

Mariners luckbox: 1.682 NRuns
Mariners hitting: -5.812 NRuns

Goat: Milton Bradley (-1.732 hitting NRuns)

******

Despite no hitting, despite subpar pitching by Felix Hernandez... the Mariners had this game in the bag thanks to one of the Mariners defense's best efforts this season, and that's saying something with one of MLB's best defenses.

The giveaway: Felix hanging one fastball too many and Bobby Abreu dropping it on the tarp past the CF wall, and a concoction of mistakes in the bottom 10th (The Figgins error and Wak's previous decision to intentionally walk Abreu) that set up the Morales bomb.

Even despite their weak hitting against Jered Weaver, the M's had their share of chances to cash in extra runs. Tui's bad baserunning helped kill one of those chances. Milton Bradley and some untimely strikeouts with RISP helped kill two others early in the game. Felix could have easily finished his start protecting a 3-0 lead instead of 1-0.

Net Runs Special, 5-29-2010: Roy Halladay's Perfect Game (Philadelphia 1, Florida 0)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
PHI	Roy Halladay	0.898	-1.125	2.023	0.000	0.000	2.86	27
PHI	Carlos Ruiz	0.097	0.097	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
PHI	Ryan Howard	-0.672	-0.682	0.000	0.010	0.000	0.00	0
PHI	Chase Utley	-0.804	-1.140	0.000	0.336	0.000	0.00	0
PHI	Juan Castro	0.095	-0.195	0.000	0.183	0.107	0.00	0
PHI	Wilson Valdez	-0.060	0.094	0.000	0.088	-0.242	0.00	0
PHI	Raul Ibanez	-0.248	-1.161	0.000	0.913	0.000	0.00	0
PHI	Shane Victorino	1.062	-0.488	0.000	1.550	0.000	0.00	0
PHI	Jayson Werth	-1.379	-1.379	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
PHI	PHI Luckbox	2.011	2.011	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
PHI	Charlie Manuel	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
FLO	Josh Johnson	1.045	-0.224	1.269	0.000	0.000	3.22	21
FLO	Brett Hayes	-0.530	-0.530	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	Gaby Sanchez	-0.388	-0.570	0.000	0.182	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	Dan Uggla	-0.329	-0.570	0.000	0.241	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	Jorge Cantu	-0.795	-0.795	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	Hanley Ramirez	-0.340	-0.336	0.000	-0.004	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	Chris Coghlan	0.557	-0.795	0.000	1.352	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	Cameron Maybin	0.970	-0.380	0.000	1.350	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	Cody Ross	-0.201	-0.336	0.000	0.135	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	Leo Nunez	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.73	3
FLO	Ronny Paulino	-0.112	-0.112	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	Clay Hensley	0.086	0.000	0.086	0.000	0.000	4.01	3
FLO	Mike Lamb	-0.265	-0.265	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	Wes Helms	-0.190	-0.190	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	FLO Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
FLO	Fredi Gonzalez	-0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Sun Life Stadium	0.367	0.000	0.000	-0.367	0.000	0.00	0

How Net Runs works.

Roy Halladay pitching: 2.023 NRuns... 2.86 EXERA
Phillies defense: 3.080 NRuns
Phillies Luckbox: 2.011 NRuns
Phillies top offensive contribution: Wilson Valdez (0.094 hitting NRuns)
Phillies hitting: -5.979 NRuns

Marlins' Josh Johnson pitching: 1.269 NRuns... 3.22 EXERA
Marlins defense: 3.256 NRuns
Marlins hitting: -5.103 NRuns

Wind: 12 mph in from RF

******

Like Dallas Braden's perfect game, a stiff wind in from RF in Sun Life Stadium did its best to make sure no flyballs left the yard on Saturday night. But the Phillies and Marlins hitters did a better job of hitting the ball deep into the outfield, with several balls reaching the warning track. The light hitting Wilson Valdez, ironically, came closest to clearing the fence with his double off the wall in the 1st inning.

It didn't matter. Roy Halladay, one of baseball's best pitchers, one upped Braden by pitching a legitimately great game and outpitching Marlins ace Josh Johnson, who threw a great game that would have been enough to win on any other day against virtually every other pitcher.

Yeah, a couple of hitters gave Halladay a ride late. A couple of liners thankfully found his defense, and pinch hitter Mike Lamb took Halladay and CF Shane Victorino all the way to the warning track to lead off the bottom 9th. But all of the flyouts, maybe because of the humidity or whatever else, flew well into the outfield... no shallow flyouts, probably for the best that Halladay saw no shallow flies as those are as likely to drop for hits as line drives.

Halladay should also thank his infield defense (3B Juan Castro, SS Wilson Valdez, 2B Chase Utley and 1B Ryan Howard), which converted all eight groundballs into outs. Thankfully, all eight grounders went between the bags, easier to field and convert into outs than a grounder up the middle over 2B, or grounders down the lines that can easily skip past the bags and out-of-position infielders and turn into doubles.

In fact, funny thing about all those balls in play: They followed a fairly defined corridor down the middle of the field.


Image c/o MLB Gameday at MLB.com

Nothing going down the lines indicates that Halladay had the Marlins hitting a lot of lazy grounders, liners and flyballs. I can't confirm that every ball was easy to field, but that the Marlins pulled nothing to straightaway left or right fields, nor did they rip anything solidly the other way. The performance reflects well on the dominant pitching of Roy Halladay, which today saved over two runs alone. But the Phillies still deserve fair credit of their own for saving over three runs: You can't throw a perfecto without an excellent effort from the defense, and they did their job today, especially Shane Victorino who saved over a run and a half on his own in CF, as well as Raul Ibañez in LF, where he saved nearly a run on his own.

And finally, let's not forget this was a 1-0 game and Halladay also faced the pressure of having to outduel effective Marlins ace Josh Johnson, who threw an excellent game of his own over seven strong innings, in Johnson's home park.

Congratulations to Roy Halladay and the Philadelphia Phillies defense for their perfect game in South Florida.

Seattle Mariners minor league EMERA for May 2010

I briefly touched upon the concept a while back, but I now have numbers to go with it.

EMERA, which is short for Expected MLB Earned Run Average, is the ERA you would expect a given minor league pitcher to run over a full season in his present state if he were immediately called up to the Majors.

Once again, here is an average EMERA for the level each of the four full-season minor league affiliates play at. I used only players who had a minimum of ten innings pitched at a given level to make sure I had a decent sample.

Tacoma: 6.36
West Tenn: 7.30
High Desert: 12.80
Clinton: 13.13

Basically, if you have an EMERA equal to one of the above totals, your performance is equivalent to an average pitcher at that level.

If a pitcher runs an EMERA appearing similar to the ERA of a typical MLB pitcher, this indicates the pitcher in question, based on his performance, could pitch in the Majors right now. Obviously, a lot of other variables are at play and the number is based purely on 2010 pitching performances at the given level. So I'm not about to consider these numbers definitive. But they are a helpful guide to how well the pitchers are doing at their given level.

For pitchers who have pitched at multiple levels, all numbers are based on the level at which the player pitched the most. For example, Steve Bray's number is based on his AA numbers while the handful of innings he threw in AAA are ignored.

I broke the pitchers down by tiers of 12. If you were to completely ignore development schedules and plans, you could slot these pitchers by their given tier: Tier one would be your AAA pitchers, tier two would be AA, tier three High A and tier four low A. That in itself can provide a guide to how these pitchers have done: If a single A pitcher is in tier one or two, he's having a good year, and a AAA pitcher in tier three or four is not.

Tier One	Lvl	EMERA
Brian Sweeney	AAA	4.25
Michael Pineda	AA	4.47
Maikel Cleto	A+	4.63
Edward Paredes	AA	4.72
Steven Hensley	AA	5.48
Garrett Olson	AAA	5.54
Mauricio Robles	AA	5.54
Aaron Jensen	AA	5.65
Robert Rohrbaugh	AA	5.78
Anthony Varvaro	AA	5.84
Anthony Vasquez	A	6.26
Steven Richard	A+	6.50

Tier Two	Lvl	EMERA
Dan Cortes	AA	6.55
Steve Bray	AA	6.57
Ryan Feierabend	A+	6.64
Luis Muñoz	AA	6.67
Stephen Penney	A+	6.94
Chad Cordero	AAA	6.96
Josh Fields	AA	7.26
Andrew Carraway	A+	7.27
Chris Kirkland	A	7.33
Brian Moran	A	7.39
Taylor Stanton	A	7.50
Chris Seddon	AAA	7.53

Tier Three	Lvl	EMERA
David Pauley	AAA	7.57
Luke French	AAA	7.68
Levale Speigner	AAA	7.69
Jacob Wild	A+	7.86
Steven Shell	AAA	8.02
John Housey	A	8.05
Andy Baldwin	AAA	8.14
Mike Koplove	AAA	8.18
Brandon Josselyn	A	8.28
Jonathan Hesketh	A	8.45
Cheyne Hann	A+	8.70
Mumba Rivera	AA	8.75

Tier Four	Lvl	EMERA
Bobby LaFromboise	A+	9.04
Erasmo Ramirez	A	9.21
James Gilheeney	A	9.36
Blake Nation	A+	9.44
Kenn Kasparek	A+	9.58
Taylor Lewis	A	9.63
Jose Jimenez	A	10.43
Marwin Vega	A+	11.16
Daniel Cooper	A	11.35
Ryan Moorer	A+	12.75
Tyler Blandford	A	17.33

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-28-2010 (Seattle 8, Anaheim 3)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	-1.140	0.000	0.224	-1.364	0.000	4.25	24
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.171	-0.331	0.000	0.000	0.160	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.317	-0.317	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.519	1.925	0.000	0.701	-1.107	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.788	0.696	0.000	0.092	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.847	0.478	0.000	0.369	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.182	-0.047	0.000	-0.135	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	3.278	1.584	0.000	0.966	0.728	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.970	0.525	0.000	0.445	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-1.388	-1.388	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Shawn Kelley	0.310	0.000	0.310	0.000	0.000	1.90	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.486	0.252	0.000	0.234	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Scott Kazmir	-1.930	0.000	-2.093	0.163	0.000	7.76	16
ANA	Mike Napoli	-0.897	-0.897	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kendry Morales	0.071	-0.065	0.000	0.136	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	0.879	0.635	0.000	0.244	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kevin Frandsen	0.241	0.534	0.000	-0.293	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	-0.162	-1.014	0.000	0.852	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	-0.726	-0.681	0.000	-0.045	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Torii Hunter	-2.109	-1.049	0.000	-1.060	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	-1.545	-0.149	0.000	-1.396	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	-1.019	-1.019	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Trevor Bell	0.809	0.000	0.809	0.000	0.000	0.44	5
ANA	Francisco Rodriguez	0.375	0.000	0.375	0.000	0.000	1.36	3
ANA	Scot Shields	-1.016	0.000	-1.016	0.000	0.000	12.97	3
ANA	ANA Luckbox	2.970	1.863	0.000	1.107	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Angels Stadium	0.941	0.000	0.000	-0.941	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (3.278 NRuns: 1.584 hitting, 0.966 fielding, 0.728 running)
Cooling Off: Mike Sweeney (-1.388 hitting NRuns)

Chone Figgins' baserunning gaffe: -1.107 NRuns
Chone Figgins otherwise: 2.626 NRuns
Franklin Gutierrez scoring from 1st on a single: 0.728 NRuns

Anaheim's Luckbox: 2.970 NRuns

Goat: Torii Hunter (-2.109 NRuns: -1.049 hitting, -1.060 fielding)

******

Two interesting plays:

1) Franklin Gutierrez scored from 1st base on a single by Milton Bradley. This is exceptionally rare, to the point where 1940's Cardinals slugger Enos Slaughter is famous for having done it. Even the fastest runners, even on a hit and run, don't get past 3rd from 1st on a single. Franklin's feat is even more incredible given he's not known for his speed, though granted he is somewhat fast.

2) Chone Figgins killed the mood on Franklin's bases loaded RBI single in the 9th by getting caught between 2nd and 3rd base, forcing Ichiro to run home to try and bail him out (to no avail: Ichiro was tagged out on Chone's behalf as everyone moved up). Ichiro's futile run did have the benefit of allowing Franklin to take 2nd base, which while not significant made the move a positive play on Ichiro's part.

Aside from that, Mike Sweeney plummeted to Earth with an 0 for 5 game, Cliff Lee had 10 strikeouts over 8 in what was a solid performance and the Mariners won a game with a big day at the plate for a change.

Postscript:

Here's some more info on players who have scored from 1st on a single (BTW, the initial poster in the thread is incorrect: Slaughter did in fact score on a single). Willie Mays, go figure, had a prolific history of scoring from 1st base on singles through the 1950's and 1960's. And the thread has an amazing story of how Ty Cobb used psychology to score from 1st on a teammate's routine groundout.

Cobb was on 1st. Hal Chase is covering 1st for the Highlanders. Batter hits routine grounder to SS. Cobb, having taken a nice lead, got a good jump and was off with the pitch. SS fields the ball cleanly and throws to 1st for the out.

Chase gets the ball and Cobb is around 12 feet off of 2nd on the 3B side. Seeing Chase with the ball, arm cocked & poised to throw, Cobb freezes stock still. Arms out like a tightrope walker, bent low to the ground. Chase fears throwing to 2B, fearing Cobb will bolt towards 3rd.

Cobb, with narrowed eyes slit, like a big panther, forces the action. Using his head like a Cobra, he feints his head back towards 2B, as if to dive back, to draw the throw. Chase instantly slings an underhand bullet to 2B to nail his man. But the instant Chase' arm is committed to his throw, Cobb, who had only moved his head, bolts toward 3B like a big cat, with Chase's curses ringing in his ears like music.

The 2nd baseman who takes the throw is slightly off-balance and out of position to make his throw to 3rd. He snags the throw, adjusts to throw to 3rd but finding Cobb in his line of fire, must take that deadly step towards the pitcher's mound, to throw clear of Cobb's body, and fires a bullet to 3B. The 3rd baseman is expecting Cobb to come in low, hook-sliding to his (Cobb's) right, away from him. He takes a perfect throw, and sweeps his gloved hand backwards, expecting to nail Cobb as he slides back to third.

But Cobb had anticipated the mind of the 3rd basemen. He never slid. He leaned way in towards the pitching mound, as if to hook, but violently pivoting on the bag, and never broke stride. While the 3rd basemen was swiping behind him, Cobb was half way home. The 3rd basemen instantly adjusted and prepared to fire home. But once again, Cobb, by watching the catcher's eyes, sees what side the throw is coming from, and keeps in between the throw and the catcher.

So once again, the 3rd baseman, must take that deadly little step to the side, in order to throw around Cobb.

He should have gotten him too, but Cobb watched the catcher's eyes, and positioned himself between the incoming throw and the catcher. The throw came in online, but Cobb, by watching the catcher's eyes, contorted his slide into the path of the throw, so it bounced harmlessly off of his back.

He scored against flawless play by knowing their habits. Genius, just genius.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-26-2010 (Seattle 5, Detroit 4)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
DET	Jeremy Bonderman	-0.326	0.000	0.169	-0.495	0.000	4.01	21
DET	Gerald Laird	0.019	-0.342	0.000	0.361	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Ryan Raburn	-1.213	-0.770	0.000	0.145	-0.588	0.00	0
DET	Danny Worth	-0.287	-0.954	0.000	0.667	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Brandon Inge	-0.966	-1.169	0.000	0.203	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Adam Everett	1.585	0.674	0.000	0.911	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Brennan Boesch	0.518	0.230	0.000	0.288	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Austin Jackson	0.906	0.416	0.000	0.383	0.107	0.00	0
DET	Magglio Ordonez	2.348	2.348	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Johnny Damon	-0.851	-0.851	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Don Kelly	-0.860	0.000	0.000	-0.860	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Ryan Perry	-1.714	0.000	-1.714	0.000	0.000	47.11	1
DET	Phil Coke	0.669	0.000	0.669	0.000	0.000	-4.16	2
DET	DET Luckbox	0.354	0.354	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Jim Leyland	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	0.463	0.000	0.318	0.145	0.000	3.68	15
SEA	Josh Bard	-0.169	-0.169	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	1.113	1.037	0.000	0.076	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.067	-0.240	0.000	0.173	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.939	-0.665	0.000	-0.274	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	1.424	1.459	0.000	-0.172	0.137	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.709	0.101	0.000	0.608	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	2.213	0.807	0.000	1.406	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.961	-1.460	0.000	0.980	-0.481	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.525	-0.525	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.281	0.388	0.000	-0.107	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-0.697	0.000	-0.697	0.000	0.000	12.94	2
SEA	Brandon League	-0.151	0.000	-0.151	0.000	0.000	4.75	7
SEA	David Aardsma	0.073	0.000	0.073	0.000	0.000	3.60	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.571	0.571	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	3.520	0.000	0.000	-3.520	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.213 NRuns: 0.807 hitting, 1.406 fielding)
Player of the Game in Defeat: Magglio Ordoñez (2.348 hitting NRuns)

Mariners outfield defense: 2.994 NRuns
Mariners infield defense: -0.159 NRuns

Mariners with more than 1.000 NRuns: 3 (Guti, Josh Wilson, Mike Sweeney)
Mariners with worse than -1.000 NRuns: 0

Goat: Ryan Perry (-1.714 pitching NRuns... 47.11 EXERA)

******

Thanks to Ryan Perry for handing the Mariners the game in the 8th inning.

While not a pitching duel on yesterday's level, Jason Vargas and Jeremy Bonderman did a solid job in their starts. Vargas ran a sub 4 EXERA in his 5 innings while Bonderman was right around 4.00 in his 7, a relief for him after the Mariners positively battered him the last time they saw him.

Mike Sweeney continues to produce big time with the bat, as does Josh Wilson. Both came up with big hits during the four run 8th inning off Ryan Perry. Also, subbing for the injured Josh Bard, Rob Johnson had one of his better hitting days (0.388 hitting NRuns) and if he can manage to string together a few games with a walk and/or timely hit every game then he'll actually help the team in relief, i.e. won't be the black hole he was before getting benched.

Milton Bradley followed his great game with a non-descript one (-0.525 NRuns). Can't win them all... as long as the numbers are more positive than negative, he's a huge boost to the DH spot.

Not much to say, really. The outfield was good, the M's got a couple long balls and that was enough to overcome some good hitting performances by Detroit (Austin Jackson, Ordoñez).

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-25-2010 (Seattle 5, Detroit 3)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
DET	Justin Verlander	0.685	0.000	0.535	0.150	0.000	3.60	22
DET	Alex Avila	-0.672	-0.672	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Don Kelly	-0.685	-0.830	0.000	0.145	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Danny Worth	0.764	0.614	0.000	0.150	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Brandon Inge	0.931	1.105	0.000	0.307	-0.481	0.00	0
DET	Ramon Santiago	-1.093	-0.881	0.000	-0.212	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Brennan Boesch	0.193	-0.817	0.000	1.010	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Austin Jackson	0.719	0.465	0.000	0.254	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Magglio Ordonez	-0.100	0.318	0.000	-0.418	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Johnny Damon	-1.170	-1.170	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Ryan Raburn	-0.169	-0.169	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Joel Zumaya	-0.096	0.000	-0.096	0.000	0.000	5.41	2
DET	DET Luckbox	0.973	0.973	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
DET	Jim Leyland	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Doug Fister	1.177	0.000	1.101	0.076	0.000	2.90	21
SEA	Josh Bard	-0.505	-0.505	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-1.784	-0.841	0.000	-0.943	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.186	0.260	0.000	0.926	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-1.099	-0.190	0.000	-0.909	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.876	-0.181	0.000	-0.695	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.841	-0.591	0.000	1.432	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	2.023	1.107	0.000	0.916	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.309	-0.812	0.000	0.503	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	2.713	2.713	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Shawn Kelley	-0.198	0.000	-0.198	0.000	0.000	5.87	3
SEA	David Aardsma	0.288	0.000	0.288	0.000	0.000	1.81	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	3.737	0.000	0.000	-3.737	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Milton Bradley (2.713 hitting NRuns)

Pretty good:
Franklin Gutierrez (2.023 NRuns: 1.107 hitting, 0.916 fielding)
Chone Figgins (1.186 NRuns: 0.260 hitting, 0.926 fielding)

Pitcher's duel:
Justin Verlander (0.535 pitching NRuns, 3.60 EXERA)
Doug Fister (1.101 pitching NRuns, 2.90 EXERA)

Mariners defense: 1.306 NRuns

Is there really a goat on a winning team? Casey Kotchman (-1.784 NRuns: -0.841 hitting, -0.943 fielding)

******

Funny that the Mariners score some runs in what turns out to be a pitchers duel, as Doug Fister matched fireballer Justin Verlander step for step until Verlander faltered in the 8th. Also go figure that in two of his lesser starts stat-wise, Fister puts up his best two performances of the season, as his defense lets him down a bit but he pitches better than he has all season, with very few mistakes. Believe it or not, he's getting better even as his line scores fall back to Earth.

Milton Bradley needed a good game at the plate badly to get back on track after his return from his self-imposed exile. Two big Milton Bradley hits keyed the Mariners fortunes at the plate today, one putting the M's on the board with a two run blast and the other putting the Mariners ahead for good with an RBI single. Good thing he and Franklin Gutierrez produced at the plate, because as usual the rest of the Mariners weren't (Chone Figgins' double offset several unproductive plate appearances for him)... though to be fair Justin Verlander is a fairly tough hurler.

The Mariners best not get too confident about today's win, as it was sparked mainly by two players, by Detroit running out their B team (Miggy Cabrera is out for the series due to family issues and several other spots are being manned by backups and youngsters) and by Doug Fister pitching very well. Their infield defense did not have a good game and will need to look better tomorrow with Jason Vargas on the hill and beyond. Ditto for their offense, as the two big days masked the fact that the rest of the lineup didn't do much.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-23-2010 (San Diego 8, Seattle 1)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SDP	Mat Latos	-0.147	0.000	-0.885	0.738	0.000	5.44	18
SDP	Nick Hundley	1.169	1.169	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Adrian Gonzalez	0.554	0.554	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	David Eckstein	0.485	0.216	0.000	0.269	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chase Headley	0.069	-0.305	0.000	0.374	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Everth Cabrera	-0.167	-0.028	0.000	-0.353	0.214	0.00	0
SDP	Oscar Salazar	0.353	-0.790	0.000	1.143	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Tony Gwynn Jr	1.450	0.064	0.000	1.386	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Will Venable	-0.067	0.346	0.000	-0.413	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Matt Stairs	0.417	0.417	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chris Denorfia	1.798	1.339	0.000	0.301	0.158	0.00	0
SDP	Luke Gregerson	0.180	0.000	0.180	0.000	0.000	2.71	3
SDP	Ryan Webb	0.381	0.000	0.305	0.076	0.000	1.67	3
SDP	Joe Thatcher	0.424	0.000	0.424	0.000	0.000	0.68	3
SDP	SDP Luckbox	0.354	0.354	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Bud Black	-0.253	-0.253	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	-0.063	0.000	-0.178	0.115	0.000	4.43	21
SEA	Rob Johnson	-1.326	-0.758	0.000	-0.568	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-1.276	0.286	0.000	-1.562	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.754	-1.190	0.000	0.436	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	0.856	0.495	0.000	0.361	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-1.399	-0.395	0.000	-1.004	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.964	-0.987	0.000	0.023	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.259	-0.891	0.000	1.150	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.934	0.102	0.000	0.832	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.207	-0.207	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jesus Colome	-1.906	0.000	-1.906	0.000	0.000	∞	0
SEA	Kanekoa Texeira	-1.545	0.000	-1.545	0.000	0.000	17.10	3
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	0.138	0.000	0.138	0.000	0.000	3.06	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.253	0.000	0.000	0.253	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Chris Denorfia (1.798 NRuns: 1.339 hitting, 0.301 fielding, 0.158 running)

Innings played by Denorfia: 3

Padres players with negative contributions: 3
Padres with positive contributions: 11

Mariners who had -1.000 NRuns or worse: 5
Mariners bullpen: -3.313 NRuns
Mariners infield defense: -2.222 NRuns
Mariners lineup: -3.545 NRuns

Goat: Jesus Colome (-1.906 pitching NRuns)

******

I feel sorry for any Mariners fan at Safeco Field who paid to watch this today.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-22-2010 (San Diego 2, Seattle 1)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SDP	Clayton Richard	1.785	0.000	1.640	0.145	0.000	2.26	21
SDP	Yorvit Torrealba	0.084	-0.023	0.000	0.000	0.107	0.00	0
SDP	Adrian Gonzalez	-1.127	-0.769	0.000	-0.358	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	David Eckstein	0.707	-0.264	0.000	0.944	0.027	0.00	0
SDP	Chase Headley	-0.664	-0.418	0.000	-0.246	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Everth Cabrera	-2.474	-0.553	0.000	-1.921	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Oscar Salazar	0.180	-0.520	0.000	0.700	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Tony Gwynn Jr	0.990	-0.662	0.000	1.652	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Will Venable	0.293	-0.511	0.000	0.804	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Matt Stairs	0.185	0.185	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chris Denorfia	-0.139	-0.169	0.000	0.030	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Mike Adams	-0.178	0.000	-0.323	0.145	0.000	6.91	3
SDP	Heath Bell	0.333	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.000	1.43	3
SDP	SDP Luckbox	1.627	1.627	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Bud Black	-0.602	-0.602	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ian Snell	-1.085	0.000	-1.085	0.000	0.000	6.02	15
SEA	Josh Bard	-0.365	-0.365	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.979	-1.057	0.000	0.078	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.191	0.447	0.000	-0.256	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.124	-0.346	0.000	0.222	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.321	0.081	0.000	0.081	0.159	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	0.681	-1.283	0.000	1.964	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.321	-0.261	0.000	1.416	-0.834	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.180	0.253	0.000	0.222	-0.655	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	0.316	0.316	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Kanekoa Texeira	-0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000	0.000	7.43	3
SEA	Shawn Kelley	0.662	0.000	0.517	0.145	0.000	2.06	6
SEA	Brandon League	0.279	0.000	0.279	0.000	0.000	1.89	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.602	0.000	0.000	0.602	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.952	0.000	0.000	-0.952	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Clayton Richard (1.785 NRuns: 1.640 pitching, 0.145 fielding)

Padres hitting: -3.724 NRuns
Padres defense: 1.895 NRuns
Padres Luckbox: 1.627 NRuns

Clayton Richard's 1st inning: 2.124 NRuns
Innings 2 through 7: -0.339 NRuns

Mariners outfield defense: 3.602 NRuns
Mariners defense: 4.474 NRuns
Mariners hitting: -2.215 NRuns
Mariners baserunning: -1.330 NRuns

Top Mariners contribution: Milton Bradley (0.681 NRuns: -1.283 hitting, 1.964 fielding)

Goat: Everth Cabrera (-2.474 NRuns: -0.553 hitting, -1.921 fielding)

******

Wow, what a dull game. It was kind of a pitcher's duel (not sure how much home plate umpire Jim Reynolds' strike zone had on that but there were far fewer walks and neither Clayton Richard nor Ian Snell are known for their control), for about 3-4 innings, and then Ian Snell kind of reverted to his hit and miss form long enough for the Pads to plate two runs and from there it was over, because the Mariners spent the rest of the game making Clayton Richard look unhittable despite his having flipped on the cruise control several innings before.

The first inning by Clayton Richard, however, was one of the best per Net Runs by a pitcher to date this season. The line scores will say he allowed three hits, but all three hits came on grounders, which in Safeco are counted for 0.093 NRuns to the pitcher. Clayton also picked off Ichiro, struck out Mike Sweeney with two on and one out and got a pop out (which in Net Runs is totally credited to the pitcher) to end the frame. In effect, Clayton faced five Mariners and got positive outcomes from his end against all of them, plus picked off one of the runners the defense allowed to reach base.

In effect, the Padres infield created about a run and a half, and Clayton Richard saved over two runs in getting them out of it without a run allowed. That is a tremendous inning: Even the best single game pitching performances rarely save more than a couple runs. To save that many in a frame is a fine effort.

Now, the Mariners bats, on the other hand, showed that they spent themselves in yesterday's 15 run outburst... or maybe the Pads defense and pitching came to play today. Will Venable got in the black with his defense in RF one day after costing the Pads a couple runs there. Tony Gwynn Jr was a huge upgrade in CF over Chris Denorfia today. Oscar Salazar was solid in LF. David Eckstein had himself a decent game. Save for Everth Cabrera's stinker at SS, the Pads overall had a good game on defense and that stifled the M's efforts to string together hits and runs.

This even discounts Yorvit Torrealba's effort behind the plate: There's no concrete way to tell, but perhaps he's a superior pitch caller and infield general to young Nick Hundley, who has historically struggled with the role in San Diego. One day after the M's unloaded on talented lefthanded soft tosser Wade LeBlanc, lefthander Clayton Richard shut them down.

Ian Snell actually looked like a new and improved pitcher for about two innings and change, which makes sense since during his stint out of the pen his average outing was about two innings and change in length. After a leadoff strikeout in the 3rd he gave up a line drive and a walk but got a pop out and flyout to escape with no damage, a so-so but okay inning. The 4th inning featured the huge Matt Stairs home run, and Snell ultimately gave up a liner and three flyballs... not good at all. Snell then gave up three line drives with a flyball in the 5th, miraculously escaped damage, and Wak pulled him at the right time, ending his night there after the 5th.

Ultimately, Ian Snell's outing was below average just like the others, though thankfully he only allowed a run. That could have easily been 3 or 4 runs. A positive note to take from this is that, as he was doing from the pen, he attacked the strike zone early in his start and challenged hitters. He started missing on the first pitch after a couple innings and the hitters squared him up from there, but if Snell can continue to harness that aggression, he could be a valuable starter even if he does get hit a bit. He just needs to trust his stuff, not fall behind in the count and nibble.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-21-2010 (Seattle 15, San Diego 8)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SDP	Wade LeBlanc	-2.894	0.000	-2.894	0.000	0.000	12.26	9
SDP	Nick Hundley	0.306	0.306	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Adrian Gonzalez	2.766	2.373	0.000	0.256	0.137	0.00	0
SDP	David Eckstein	0.683	1.550	0.000	-0.867	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chase Headley	-1.732	-1.002	0.000	-0.730	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Everth Cabrera	-1.401	-0.262	0.000	-1.139	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Jerry Hairston Jr	-0.962	-1.048	0.000	0.086	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chris Denorfia	0.458	-0.372	0.000	0.583	0.247	0.00	0
SDP	Will Venable	-3.595	-1.524	0.000	-2.071	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Oscar Salazar	1.151	1.151	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Tony Gwynn Jr	-0.306	-0.523	0.000	0.217	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Cesar Ramos	-1.708	0.000	-1.939	0.231	0.000	20.39	3
SDP	Adam Russell	1.088	0.000	1.088	0.000	0.000	-0.33	6
SDP	Joe Thatcher	0.359	0.000	0.359	0.000	0.000	1.22	3
SDP	Ryan Webb	0.143	0.000	0.143	0.000	0.000	3.02	3
SDP	SDP Luckbox	2.422	2.422	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Bud Black	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	-0.473	0.000	-0.473	0.000	0.000	4.84	19
SEA	Josh Bard	2.704	3.359	0.000	-0.655	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.613	0.278	0.000	0.335	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.852	-0.541	0.000	-0.311	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-3.017	-1.492	0.000	-1.525	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-1.140	1.376	0.000	-2.734	0.218	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	0.725	0.913	0.000	-0.188	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.527	0.718	0.000	-0.191	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	2.448	0.171	0.000	1.522	0.755	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	4.988	4.988	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jesus Colome	0.472	0.000	0.472	0.000	0.000	1.85	5
SEA	Brandon League	0.293	0.000	0.293	0.000	0.000	1.77	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.217	0.217	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	4.283	0.000	0.000	-4.283	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Mike Sweeney (4.988 hitting NRuns)

Mariners with more than 1.000 total NRuns: 2

Josh Bard (2.704 NRuns: 3.359 hitting, -0.655 fielding)
Ichiro (2.448 NRuns: 0.171 hitting, 1.522 fielding, 0.755 running)

Mariners hitting: 9.770 NRuns
Mariners defense: -3.747 NRuns
Josh Wilson's defense: -2.734 NRuns

Padres defense: -3.434 NRuns



Wade LeBlanc and Cesar Ramos: -4.833 pitching NRuns
Adam Russell: 1.088 NRuns
Padres Luckbox: 2.422 NRuns
Padres Player of the Game: Adrian Gonzalez (2.766 NRuns: 2.373 hitting, 0.256 fielding, 0.137 running)

Goat: Will Venable (-3.595 NRuns: -1.524 hitting, -2.071 fielding)

******

Funny thing about that two run 1st inning for Cliff Lee: He actually pitched pretty well in that inning. Strikeout, groundball, groundball, line drive, big strikeout with two on, groundball, pop out.

It was after that frame that Lee fell back to Earth, but despite taking credit for eight runs allowed, Lee's performance wasn't terrible. It was ultimately below average, but the 4.84 EXERA indicates he wasn't 8-runs-bad. With a typical defensive effort he probably allows three runs.

(The bogus Jerry Hairston strikeout on an inside pitch that led to Hairston's meltdown and ejection didn't have a huge impact: The K only counted for -0.238 NRuns, and even if the pitch had been correctly called a ball the count would have been 2-2, not a hitter friendly count for Hairston against a fine pitcher like Lee)

As for the story with this 23 run game, the Mariners got long balls from Mike Sweeney (who probably snatched the DH spot for the foreseeable future with one of the best Mariner performances this season) and Josh Wilson.

And the Padres front end pitching played a large role in letting this game get away: Had Wade LeBlanc and Cesar Ramos thrown the whole game with the effort they gave today they would have legitimately given up about 15-16 runs. They had help, though: Will Venable got absolutely abused in RF today, giving away over 2 runs all by himself in the field, not to mention his terrible day at the plate (-1.524 NRuns).

Speaking of bad defense, that was the big story here: The two teams combined to give away over 7 runs in the field. Jose Lopez matched Will Venable's failboat with a terrible game at 3B (-1.525 NRuns) to go with his terrible game at the plate today (-1.492 NRuns). Josh Wilson had a homer but was terrible himself at SS (-2.734 NRuns). That the Padres still lost by 7 runs despite getting over two runs of help from Mariners miscues and a terrible defensive effort by the M's speaks to the Mariners' impressive effort today.

Funny enough, the best defensive effort today for the M's came from Ichiro (1.522 NRuns), who has struggled with reigning in key flyballs and line drives for most of this season. His effort was the exception to a terrible game for the Mariners defense. Thanks to Mike Sweeney's big bat and some terrible Padres efforts, the M's threw up 15 runs and got a big win.

This was a case where both teams threw up a lot of runs not so much because of impressive hitting, but because of terrible defense and some bad pitching.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-20-2010 (Seattle 4, Toronto 3)

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TOR	Ricky Romero	-1.453	0.000	-1.675	0.222	0.000	6.31	20
TOR	Jose Molina	-1.218	-1.001	0.000	0.000	-0.217	0.00	0
TOR	Lyle Overbay	-0.340	-0.311	0.000	-0.029	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Aaron Hill	-0.842	-0.463	0.000	-0.379	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Edwin Encarnacion	0.268	-0.135	0.000	0.403	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Alex Gonzalez	1.131	0.864	0.000	0.240	0.027	0.00	0
TOR	Adam Lind	-0.658	-0.826	0.000	0.385	-0.217	0.00	0
TOR	Fred Lewis	1.859	-0.297	0.000	2.156	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Jose Bautista	1.075	1.497	0.000	-0.529	0.107	0.00	0
TOR	Vernon Wells	-0.931	-0.931	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Jeremy Reed	0.501	0.000	0.000	0.501	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Jason Frasor	-0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000	0.000	5.41	1
TOR	Scott Downs	0.435	0.000	0.435	0.000	0.000	-1.23	2
TOR	Shawn Camp	0.217	0.000	0.000	0.217	0.000	4.21	1
TOR	Kevin Gregg	-2.254	0.000	-2.254	0.000	0.000	60.63	1
TOR	TOR Luckbox	0.578	0.358	0.000	0.220	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Cito Gaston	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	-1.073	0.000	-1.073	0.000	0.000	5.56	20
SEA	Josh Bard	0.815	0.815	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.818	1.031	0.000	-0.213	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.649	-1.011	0.000	0.362	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.624	0.402	0.000	0.222	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.038	-0.274	0.000	0.236	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	0.626	0.010	0.000	0.833	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.769	-1.007	0.000	1.776	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.047	-0.312	0.000	0.482	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	0.427	0.427	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	1.218	1.218	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Kanekoa Texeira	0.216	0.000	-0.886	1.102	0.000	9.76	4
SEA	Shawn Kelley	0.283	0.000	0.283	0.000	0.000	1.85	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.578	-0.220	-0.358	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	1.731	0.000	0.000	-1.731	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Fred Lewis (1.859 NRuns: -0.297 hitting, 2.156 fielding)

Goat: Kevin Gregg (-2.254 pitching NRuns)

Ken Griffey Jr's walkoff single: 1.218 NRuns
Rest of Mariners lineup: 0.081 NRuns

Mariners defense: 4.800 NRuns

******

Remember what I said about the M's needing to come up big in one of the major facets of the game (hitting, pitching, fielding) to win? Well, today the defense (the outfield in particular) had themselves a great game to bail out shoddy pitching and pedestrian offense, keeping the M's in the game enough for a Kevin Gregg implosion and a Ken Griffey Jr lined single to win it.

As for the Jays, they mostly mailed this one in, with only Fred Lewis's defense, Alex Gonzalez's effort and Jose Bautista's two run shot being the big bright spots. I'm surprised this team is so far above .500. They're like the anti-2010-Mariners.

Wak might have done his team a favor in getting ejected today: To that point he had cost his team over half a run with his managerial decisions to bunt and walk hitters.