So how does the NFL get those #1 seeds to keep trying in Week 16 and 17?

Following up on my earlier piece on the NFL combating top seeds that quit on games... now Deadspin notes that the NFL may try to carrot top teams into playing competitively the final weeks by rewarding them with draft picks for doing so.

Wow, that's opening a can of moldy worms if I've ever seen one. Give a top team picks in a draft designed to improve lesser teams and level the playing field. Nothing levels the playing field like giving more top college talent to the best teams, Roger Goodell. Great idea, genius.

Barry Petchesky's idea to revoke draft picks for quitting on games sounds appealing, but really... if a team is good enough to clinch a top seed, they probably don't need that 3rd or 5th round draft pick, maybe not even their 1st round pick (since it'll likely be a 28th-32nd pick, good to pick up a useful role-player but nothing that will break you if you lose it).

I think the best option is to dock a team that pulls their starters with a heavy fine, something in the neighborhood of $1 million to $2 million. If that's not enough to deter teams (but really, with $50-60 million payrolls stretched to the limit with big salaries, it should), make the fine bigger until it does.

If taking that much money makes your moral sphincter clench... then just take that much money off their salary cap next season instead. They'll have to meet a payroll limit that's $1-2 million lower than everyone else's if they need to rest their starters.

Oh, that's right. The NFLPA's looking into revoking the salary cap in the next couple seasons when their deal with the NFL expires.

So then... just get over your morally capitalist hangups and just fine any team that pulls its starters during any competitive game (i.e. any game that a team is leading by fewer than two scores), or before the 4th quarter (remember that the Colts pulled their starters midway through the 3rd), in the final two weeks. That's the best way to coerce compliance.

As for teams looking to keep their starters out of harm's way (the real reason teams "rest" their starters), just run a conservative ball-control offense centered around runs and quick passes, rotate your non-QB starters in and out of the game to keep them fresh and minimize injury chances while keeping them involved, and work the clock as much as you can. That'll ensure fewer plays run in the game, meaning fewer chances for your players to get hurt, and running plays with quick pass plays will minimize the chances for your QB to get hit and/or injured.

On the NFL Draft and rebuilding through the middle picks

One strategy I've put to successful use in detailed football league simulators is trading down when I have a high pick. Typically a top 5-10 draft pick commands a large, star player type of salary, and the chances that said player turns out a bust typically makes such a contract a bad value even if by all other signals the player is fairly certain to at some point in his career provide that value.

One of two scenarios is often the case with top players in the NFL Draft:

- He played at a small school, so sure, he didn't have a great supporting cast and that's a testament to his ability to rise above it... but he also played mostly against weak competition.

- He played at a power school, so he got to play against some tougher competition, but he also had a supporting cast of some of the best players in college football, got to play mostly against inferior teams, and had coaching and a system conducive to success at that level.

In both cases, each star player is in for a shock against NFL defenses where every player on every team (yes, even the Browns, Chiefs and Lions) was himself a good player in college. Sure, many top picks step in and make an impact from day one. Many don't, though, and many never do.

Basically, a top 5-10 pick often does not add that much more value to your team than someone in the late 1st round. In fact, you can find talent that can likely contribute to your NFL team anywhere between the 1st and 5th rounds (admittedly, guys selected from the 5th round on are shots in the dark at best).

Thus if I had a top ten pick, I would try to trade it down and get 2-3 later picks, or maybe a pick or two and a useful player that fills one of my needs. I know that some have devised basic systems to equate the value of picks, so if you wanted to figure out exactly what you could get for it. There are GMs who would definitely value a top ten pick and offer what you're looking for: the best teams to target are those who acquired other team's picks and have a surplus of picks in the early rounds that would offset the loss of dealing you a pick or three.

For example, if I inherited a shit-fest of a team as the GM and had the 5th pick, I'd maybe try and swing a deal to a team jonesing for a player projected in that slot for... say... a 1st and 2nd rounder this year, and maybe even a 1st or 2nd rounder next year. If they offered a player I needed, I'd be okay with just a 1st and 2nd rounder, whether in this year's draft or next year's. Or if I had the 15th pick I'd consider flipping it for a late 1st rounder and late 2nd rounder.

This is a fine strategy if you're rebuilding, though many argue that a top 5-10 provides more bang for the buck and is worth keeping. Sure, that top pick might get you your next franchise player. And it might get you Ryan Leaf. On top of that, now you've got a star player but he's still surrounded by crappy talent. Instead of drafting that one top player, why not swap the pick to draft 2-3 decent college players and fill more of the many needs your rebuilding team likely has?

If I wanted to I could take the strategy a bit farther: If I had a 2nd round pick to burn, maybe an extra one acquired via trade, I'd look into trying to flip it in an otherwise innocuous deal for a 3rd and 4th rounder. If I had a disgruntled veteran, or a surplus of depth at some position, I'd try and flip those guys for picks as well. I could, along with getting an extra pick or two in the late 1st to 3rd round area, grow a set of picks in the 3rd to 5th round range, where I could load up on potential role players and rebuild the depth of the team, especially on the offensive line and the defense.

The best part about this is that, once you get past the first round, all of these players come cheap. The bonuses are minimal and most will gladly play for the league minimum, a huge advantage over the single 1st round draft pick that will want several million dollars in cap busting bonuses up front, aside from whatever money you need to pay your other picks. The more roster spots you can improve in an offseason for a low cost, the more money you keep free under the cap to sign or otherwise acquire a high impact free agent or four. It's Stars & Scrubs, NFL Style.

You could probably turn a 4-12 squad into at least a .500 team in one season this way, even with a ho-hum cast of incumbent veterans. It's best done with a Singletary-style philosophy of controlling the clock with the run and playing physical defense, though, as players that fit into such an effort-over-skill system are easier to find and develop.