Showing posts with label Josh Bard. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Josh Bard. Show all posts

Monday, May 17, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-17-2010 (Oakland 8, Seattle 4)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEARyan Rowland-Smith-2.0540.000-2.0540.0000.00010.368
SEAJosh Bard-1.342-0.4580.000-0.8840.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman-0.838-0.6270.000-0.2110.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins0.0460.4880.000-0.031-0.4110.000
SEAJose Lopez1.7071.8020.000-0.1990.1040.000
SEAJosh Wilson0.165-0.3570.0000.5220.0000.000
SEAMatt Tuiasosopo-0.4060.2160.000-0.6220.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez1.4390.0780.0001.2570.1040.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki1.1050.4890.0000.3920.2240.000
SEAKen Griffey Jr-1.921-1.1080.0000.000-0.8130.000
SEAIan Snell0.3200.0000.1590.1610.0003.438
SEAJesus Colome0.5090.0000.5090.0000.0001.385
SEASean White0.3470.0000.3470.0000.0001.033
SEASEA Luckbox0.0300.0300.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
OAKGio Gonzalez-0.8720.000-0.9930.1210.0005.1121
OAKKurt Suzuki-0.621-0.3830.000-0.2380.0000.000
OAKDaric Barton1.5711.2320.0000.3390.0000.000
OAKAdam Rosales3.1702.3890.0000.7810.0000.000
OAKKevin Kouzmanoff0.8990.8760.0000.231-0.2080.000
OAKCliff Pennington0.327-0.1720.0000.3950.1040.000
OAKJack Cust-0.0550.2660.000-0.3210.0000.000
OAKRajai Davis1.6991.3010.0000.2940.1040.000
OAKRyan Sweeney-0.332-0.1740.0000.200-0.3580.000
OAKJake Fox-1.468-1.0570.0000.000-0.4110.000
OAKEric Patterson-0.3570.0000.000-0.3570.0000.000
OAKJerry Blevins-0.5230.000-0.5230.0000.0000
OAKBrad Ziegler-0.2020.0000.052-0.2540.0003.282
OAKCraig Breslow0.0970.0000.0970.0000.0001.501
OAKAndrew Bailey0.4150.0000.4150.0000.0000.473
OAKOAK Luckbox0.7230.7230.0000.0000.0000.000
OAKBob Geren0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
 Oakland Coliseum3.5780.0000.000-3.5780.0000.000


Player of the Game: Adam Rosales (3.170 NRuns: 2.389 hitting, 0.781 fielding)

Goat: Ryan Rowland-Smith (-2.054 pitching NRuns)
Fairly close: Ken Griffey Jr (-1.921 NRuns: -1.108 hitting, -0.813 running)

Mariners bullpen: 1.015 pitching NRuns

Bad catcher?: Josh Bard (-1.342 NRuns: -0.458 hitting, -0.884 fielding)

Franklin, Ichiro and Jose Lopez: 4.251 NRuns

******

Lost in this abominative performance is that, of the 13 Mariners who took the field today, only five produced negative performances. However, three of those negative performances were particularly awful: RRS, Josh Bard and Ken Griffey Jr.

I've been pressed for about a week to write a response to the Ken Griffey Jr "sleeping in the clubhouse" story, and aside from not finding the time and inclination, I'm not sure what else there is to add, especially after Kirby Arnold's excellent summary. Larry LaRue only made a story of it because Griffey was not used to pinch hit in a key late-inning situation during a May 2 game and in digging to find out why he discovered Junior was asleep in the clubhouse. And away it went.

And as has been mentioned, it has only become a story because Junior is struggling, and he hasn't looked quite as bad in this mundane season of his as he looked tonight, killing a few rallies and costing his team nearly a couple runs. Every day he elects to continue playing despite clearly lacking the skill to play at a competitive level anymore simply delays the inevitable and does nothing to rectify what has become a depressing end to a storied career.

But tonight he's hardly the biggest problem. Ryan Rowland-Smith probably drove a stake through his tenure as the #5 starting pitcher with this wretched performance. The first inning looked rockier for him than it was. The second inning was legitimately awful, as was the 3rd inning and thankfully Wak pulled him before we got a chance to see if it could get worse.

The last pitch of the RRS start led me to cast a suspicious eye on new catcher Josh Bard. Bard called for a 2nd pitch change-up to Adam Rosales, not a bad idea... except he placed his glove middle-in, right where a righty hitter with a platoon advantage could flat out crush a pitch from a lefthanded pitcher.

Sure enough, RRS put a 78 mph changeup right where Bard wanted it and Rosales crapped all over it. I'm not sure why Bard would call for a pitch best thrown away from an opposite-handed hitter... right in a batter's wheelhouse. One of the knocks on the journeyman catcher is... well... his catching ability, and a curious decision like that certainly doesn't help dissuade that.

RRS was sitting 88-90 with his fastball at the end (he had started 87-89), hit the zone consistently and showed a diverse range of speeds between his curve, change and fastball. But too many of his pitches caught the meat of the plate, and the disciplined A's hitters took advantage often. It didn't help that the A's just got back leading catcher Kurt Suzuki and slugger Jack Cust, but neither were factors in this RRS beatdown.

The obvious move at this point is to move RRS to the bullpen and give Ian Snell another shot in the rotation. At least RRS gives the pen a lefty and, at least in the short term, he can be used situationally vs lefthanders, giving Wak some sort of opportunity at finding an edge. Snell looked effective enough today (some of those 5 hits were flukish) that I can see him doing a better job in the rotation than RRS for now.

One factor that leads me to avoid blaming Josh Bard for the performance was how the bullpen did under his watch, allowing only one run in the final 5.1 innings, including 2.2 of the best innings Ian Snell's thrown this season. However, by the time RRS exited the A's had a comfortable 7-1 lead with the M's showing little life at the plate against Gio Gonzalez, so it's likely the A's flipped on the cruise control and didn't work too hard against the Mariners bullpen. This cheapens fine outings by Jesus Colome and Sean White. Looking at the time of the game (only 2 hours 22 minutes despite 12 runs scored) one would have to guess the A's hacked away just to get the game over with.

However, nobody told Bob Geren to hurry, as he made a somewhat ridiculous four pitching changes in the final two innings, including three in the 8th. Sure, with the M's having crawled within four runs, using closer Andrew Bailey in the 9th wasn't a bad idea. But Geren has a fatal-flaw thing for playing the matchups, even in a game where his team is comfortably ahead and he could afford to let a reliever face a bad platoon split for a batter or two, especially when those batters aren't hitting.

I could understand getting the pen some work, esepcially given they only needed to work an inning for Trevor Cahill yesterday vs Anaheim, but you've still got a game tomorrow and a series looming the day after with Detroit. There was no need to burn the pen in a game like this.

Bob Geren's bullpen matchup fetish a) sort of explains the A's rash of bullpen injuries under his watch and b) will be their undoing in the AL West race as the bullpen will wear out more quickly.

The silliest of Geren's moves came when he called in lefthander Craig Breslow solely to face... Ken Griffey Jr. Previous pitcher Brad Ziegler is a submarining righty, sure, and Griffey would have the advantage as a lefty of Ziegler's pitches appearing to float more. But even granted that, what is Griffey going to do if he gets a meaty pitch? Fly out to right field? He's done. He can't even turn on hittable pitches anymore. Ziegler probably could have gotten him out. Any replacement level pitcher could easily get Junior out.

Save Breslow and use him in a more important situation in a couple days. In fact, save Ziegler and save lefty Jerry Blevins for more important situations. Geren could have easily sent newly returned Michael Wuertz to face lefthanded Ichiro and switch hitting Chone Figgins, the latter of which is struggling, before facing Franklin Gutierrez, and then have a guy or two ready in the unlikely event things get real bad.

End rant. It's too bad I wasted so much text without mentioning a great hitting game by Jose Lopez, though it came against a lefthander and for all his struggles he is battering lefthanded pitching this year. He's not out of the woods yet: Let's see what he does tomorrow against a rehabbed Ben Sheets.

And I didn't even bother criticising a weak lineup from Wak. I've had enough of targeting Wak. This team blows and at worst it's only partially his fault.

I also forgot the comical "home run" by Tui that bounced off Rajai Davis' glove and over the fence. That's the first time I've credited a home run to a fielder this season: All the others got credited to the ballpark.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Mariners fans, look out for Josh Bard


A seemingly innocuous acquisition of lefthanded journeyman catcher Josh Bard by the Seattle Mariners seems like little more than a depth move, as Bard's career 259/326/389 and caught stealing percentage of 20% indicates that he's as marginal as the other current Mariners options at catcher (all-defense Rob Johnson and prospect Adam Moore, who may need a bit more time in AAA).

But Bard's history masks an ability that exceeds his numbers, and a friendlier situation in Seattle may allow him to break out in the likely event that Johnson's surgically repaired hip and wrist haven't healed and Moore isn't quite ready to play regularly at the MLB level.

First point: 3+ seasons in pitcher friendly home parks may have disguised Bard's potential as a useful hitter. Bard posted decent line drive rates over the last three seasons:

2009: 18.3%
2008: 21.6%
2007: 18.7%

Bard's Groundball rates, good as groundballs tend to go for hits more often than flyballs (though flyballs obv lead to more XBHs), also look good.

GB rates:
2009: 51.8%
2008: 47.1%
2007: 40.0%

Basically, he's clearly getting on top of the ball like a good hitter and putting the ball in play with consistent, strong contact. Given averages on each different type of ball in play, here are composite numbers for 2007-2009 with walks and strikeouts included based on my method that uses batted ball rates to create a composite line that reflects how said player did.

2009: 267/328/431
2008: 301/368/453
2007: 287/370/440

Bard played 2007-2008 in San Diego, which has one of the most pitcher-friendly offense-depressing environments in MLB, and shared a division with the Dodgers (who play in pitcher friendly Chavez Ravine) and Giants (pitcher friendly AT&T Park). He played 2009 in Washington DC, which has a new park that has shown to be neutral at best but trends slightly in favor of pitching, and in an NL East with a pitcher friendly park (Landshark Stadium in FLA) and two parks that trend towards the pitcher (Turner Field in ATL and Citi Field in Queens, NY). They also play an interleague rival series with the Mariners in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

Bard's actual stats:

2007: 285/364/404 (443 Plate Appearances), 235/341/344 at home
2008: 202/279/270 (198 PA), 177/261/190 at home
2009: 230/293/361 (301 PA), 243/304/392 at home

The park thing is by no means a dealbreaker. Note that in 2007, the only season where he seized most of the playing time, he posted decent numbers despite playing in San Diego (and the listed home splits tell the story). Partial playing time as well as nagging injuries may have also prevented him from keeping his rhythm with his swing, which certainly doesn't help.

The hitting stats from the last two years aren't reflective of what Bard can bring to the table as a hitter. His walk rate per PA has never dropped below a respectable 8% and has typically stuck closer to 9-10%. His K rates never go above 17% (whiffers usually hit the 24-26% mark), so he still makes consistent contact. His career isolated power of .130 indicates he hasn't lost any power, and the batted ball splits indicate he consistently gets on top of the ball. Add in Safeco's short-ish RF porch which favors Bard's switch hitting ability when lefthanded, and it's possible Bard's numbers could see a spike in Seattle in 2009.

But then there's Bard's low CS% of 20%. The baseline for success is 25-30%. Catch more than that, and you're containing baserunners. Catch less than that and they're gaining an edge on you.

Is that Bard's fault? History indicates not. With his first team, Cleveland, Bard posted some decent CS numbers: 37.1% over his 3+ seasons with the Indians. It's only after he began his brief ill-fated stint in Boston as knuckleballer Tim Wakefield's personal catcher than things tumbled. Knuckleballers are easy to run on and difficult to catch for in general and Bard allowed 12 of 13 runners to steal. But the problem continued when he ended up in San Diego:

CS%

2006: 20%
2007: 8%
2008: 16%

What happened to Josh Bard's arm? The San Diego Padres rotation, that's what.

Here are career stolen base allowance rates for key Padres SPs that Bard worked with (remember, you want a number lower than 70%):

Jake Peavy: 82%
Greg Maddux: 76%
Chris Young: 91% (Fun fact: All 44 stolen base attempts against him in 2007 were successful)
Justin Germano: 84%
David Wells: 69%
Randy Wolf: 60%
Cha Seung Baek: 58%
Josh Banks: 81%

Of that group, only Wells, Wolf and Baek posted good career numbers, and Wells and Wolf spent much of their careers somewhere else. Also, Bard only caught full time with the Pads for about 1838.2 innings. There are about 1450 innings in a typical regular season, and the careers of those first four pitchers span well past a full season.

Go figure that when Bard played for the Nationals in 2009, his CS% went up to 27%. Also, Bard wasn't the only Pads catcher that struggled to throw out baserunners: Young catcher Nick Hundley's career CS percentage is 22%, and all 138 of his career games have come with the Pads.

Connect the dots. I don't think Josh Bard's arm was the problem with the Padres SB-allowance situation as much as the tendency of his SPs to either work with slower, more exploitable windups or work under managerial and coaching direction that de-emphasized controlling the running game. Which exactly it was, we don't know, but Bard was clearly in a situation with San Diego where he didn't have the chance to gun down runners that he would have on a typical MLB team.

Bard's got a better arm than the numbers indicate. And I have a feeling Z and his crew see this as well. This doesn't look like more than a depth acquisition, but don't be surprised if Bard's not only on the 2010 Opening Day Seattle Mariners roster, but he becomes the regular catcher and posts a breakout season, while helping the Mariners address their issues with containing opposing baserunners.