Whose Mascot Would Win In A Fight? A predictive experiment.

My mother leaned on this method in her pro football weekly picks contest (with a surprising degree of success) and, inspired by a post somewhere that mentioned this method, I decided as an homage to her to predict winners of games in the NBA, NFL, NHL and college basketball based on this expert analytical method:

WHOSE MASCOT WOULD WIN IN A FIGHT?

NBA:

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers. A Cavalier would last maybe three seconds against a carnivorous Raptor. Pick: Toronto

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat. This one is a little more difficult. How much Heat are we talking about here? Are we talking about a warm room? A fire? A volcano? A slightly warmed down comforter? A Pacer's chance of survival is a matter of what he's up against: He burns to death in a fire, but a warm pancake isn't going to phase the man who determines how fast whatever it is he is pacing is going to go.

We must turn to the team's original logo for the answer. The logo features a flaming basketball. However, that by itself does not answer the question: A stationary flaming basketball or one moving slowly enough to be dodged or eventually doused isn't going to vanquish a Pacer, whereas one moving at meteoric speed right at the Pacer will eliminate him easily.

Eventually, we have to side with the inanimate production of energy, simply because its uncertain form makes too unpredictable an enemy for the otherwise one-dimensional Pacer: Pick: Miami

NHL:

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers. Lightning can never be defeated, but can kill in an instant with an accurate blow to the crown of a Ranger, especially if that Mark Messier looking loser is wearing his metal helmet. Pick: Tampa Bay

Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers. A Civil War era soldier may have better weaponry, but the Flyer can... well, fly. The trump card comes in the fact that the Blue Jacket has a musket, and I don't care how well you can fly. You take some buckshot in the gut and you're gone. Pick: Columbus

Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals. Originally named for the Winged Wheelers that owner James E Norris was a part of in Montreal, the Red Wings may not be a city like the Capitals, but they sure as hell can run everyone over and eventually get out of their cars and take control. Pick: Detroit

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Atlanta Thrashers. Know why Toronto's the worst team in the NHL? Because a damn leaf off a maple tree can't beat anything in a fight. Duh. Pick: Atlanta

Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators. Aboriginal warriors in a fight with blue blood politicians. Right. Pick: Chicago

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins. It's dinner time on the Island! Who wants poultry? Pick: New York

Buffalo Sabres at Anaheim Ducks. No really, who wants poultry? Pick: Buffalo

San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings. If this fight were in the Shark Tank, the King would be dead meat. Because the Shark is on land and in the Kings' house, game over. Pick: Los Angeles

NCAA Basketball:

Northwestern Wildcats at Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeye tree is mahogany, 15-25 feet tall, and impervious to the claws and teeth of a Wildcat, but if falling could kill that stupid cat in a heartbeat. Pick: Ohio State

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. A tiger can maybe sway a wasp or two, but a hundred of the little buggers should be able to sting the big cat to death. Pick: Georgia Tech

Albany Great Danes at Boston University Terriers. A great dane fighting with a terrier. Right. Pick: Albany

Chicago State Cougars at Eastern Kentucky Colonels. Whether you're talking about the violent feline cougars or the fortysomething MILF cougars, an elderly colonel is no match for either one. Pick: Chicago State

George Mason Patriots at Hofstra Pride. Pride is a mental concept and a sin, so in essense the George Mason Patriots are at war with themselves, their own egos, their own hubris. And if Jim Larranaga has anything to say about it (and history shows he definitely does), his Patriots shall overcome. Pick: George Mason

Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide. While a group of unknowing Volunteers stand around wondering what exactly constitutes a crimson tide, a herd of elephants answers their questions in a violent stampede. Pick: Alabama

Hartford Hawks at Vermont Catamounts. A catamount is a form of cougar. That Hawk can fly around and peck/claw away all day, but that lion's going to get his jaws on him eventually. Pick: Vermont

Longwood Lancers at Maryland Terrapins. A terrapin is a turtle. Yes, a turtle. A lancer can poke at that sucker all day but he'll just... well... turtle, and none of the blows will have any effect. The lancer will eventually stab at the ground in anger, snap his lance in half and end up impaling himself. Dumb lancer: No wonder your team's 3-14. Pick: Maryland

Oklahoma Sooners at Texas A&M Aggies. 19th century settlers of Oklahoma vs folks generally predispositioned to agriculture. The settlers are a bit more battle hardened from a long journey as well as a perceived need to kill Native Americans and take their land. The Aggies may have pitchforks, but the Sooners know how to use them. Boomer Sooner... and GIT OFF MAH LAND. Pick: Oklahoma

Indiana State Sycamores vs Missouri State Bears. Bears run into the same problems as the wildcats above when it comes to trees, but the Platanus Occidentalis are even bigger, growing up to 100-130 feet in size. Yeah, good luck with that, Grizz. Pick: Indiana State

Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini. Let's see, fighting (and likely armed) Native Americans vs trained craftsmen who make steel fabrications. Uh huh. Pick: Illinois

Boston College Eagles at Miami-Fla Hurricanes. Gale force winds in a storm hundreds of miles wide. A bird. Pick: Miami-Fla

Northern Iowa Panthers at Wichita State Shockers. I'm SHOCKED. SHOCKED, I tell you. When Panthers get shocked, I hear they just get angrier and tear you up more quickly. But honestly, the nickname Shocker is short for Wheatshocker, a euphemism for students who harvested fields for pocket money. Yeah, they stand a chance against Panthers. Pick: Northern Iowa

San Diego State Aztecs vs Utah Utes. Now here's a tough question. Which Native tribe would win in a fight? The Aztecs invade as far north as they've ever gone, into colder, more mountainous Northern Ute territory. Ute history shows that their only military successes came when they allied (ill-advisedly) with the U.S. in wars against the Navajo and Apache during the 1860's. Their biggest solo effort? The Meeker Massacre. And the eventual loss of most of their land. A look at the history books, however, show that those Aztecs knew how to kick some ass. Pick: San Diego State

Ron Artest fell down the stairs

Using an alibi stereotypically reserved for domestic abuse victims, Ron Artest reportedly injured his head and left elbow in a fall down the stairs of his Los Angeles home. After stitches and a CT scan, he was released from the hospital, but missed tonight's Lakers game.

Now, the last time I can recall a "fall down the stairs" impacting a professional athlete, both stories were cover ups for some unflattering reality.

- Former Mariners closer Kaz Sasaki's fall down the stairs and subsequent rib injury "with some luggage" turned out to be something different: The underground rumor indicated it was a domestic dispute gone wrong but popular reports indicated he was practicing pro wrestling maneuvers with friends while drinking.

- Rockies infielder Clint Barmes' fall down some stairs "with some groceries" (which at some point bizarrely changed to a fall "with some venison") turned out to be cover for an ATV accident.

The funny thing is, despite my typically jaded nature, I actually believe Testy. I can buy that he just took a tumble and hurt himself, especially with minimal leaks indicating the contrary. But go figure there have been enough fishy stories behind off-the-field injuries that our first instinct as a culture is to wonder what actually happened.

On Paul Pierce's ideas of NBA rule changes

Paul Pierce has three ideas to fix the NBA

1. Eliminate the age limit.
2. Cut the regular season from 82 games to 60.
3. Raise the rim 3 inches to 10'3"

Some thoughts:

The NBA age limit is a joke: Kids just camp at a college for one year, and then turn pro at 19. How they use a scholarship with no intention of getting an actual education or being anything more than a one year mercenary shows the pointlessness of the age limit. There's little difference between a 17 or 18 year old entering the NBA and a 19 year old. If Stern thought going to school mattered, he should have made the age limit 22 or 23.

As for the rim... yeah, there's no way they would do it, especially given you have to dip into international and college basketball and get everyone to do it for it to work, but I think it would do the game some good to force people to learn how to shoot and pass again. The NBA product today, while a little better than recent years, is still garbage and a big reason why is because there's a lack of polished, fundamentally sound basketball.

And I actually agree with his idea for the 60 game season. Much of the season is a giant sleepwalk. We don't need 82 games to figure out who sucks and who doesn't (after 20-25 games, for example, we have a pretty good idea of how good the 2-win Nets are), especially if you're letting more than half the league into the playoffs.

NBA Draft Steals in History

The NBA has one of sports' shorter drafts, only two rounds long. This is due to the limited number of players required to field an NBA team, usually no more than 15. Despite this, few players beyond the mid to late 1st round make an impact in the NBA over their careers. Many never play a single minute in the NBA and many play hundreds of forgettable minutes, usually off the bench, before being dropped and forgotten. And this never minds the many top 10-20 picks that get drafted as franchise players but 'bust' as non-impact players.

How do so few NBA draftees make an impact? Until the rush of high school stars overran the NBA in the 1990's, it wasn't too uncommon for low draft picks to eventually become key contributors on NBA teams over their career. But as the influx of star teenage talent accelerated the league's natural increase in athletic talent, it became harder for anyone outside of top draft picks to break in, let alone make an impact.

Thus it's a surprise when a player picked late in the 1st round or anyone picked in the 2nd round goes on to become a star or key player. Such players often see no more than bench time or supporting roles. Many of the following steals in recent NBA draft history were late picks who ended up giving their teams more than they hoped for... though there is a notable top pick who was a great steal himself for entirely different reasons. Here are the top NBA steals of the post-modern basketball era, starting with the most recent:

Monta Ellis (Golden State Warriors, 40th overall 2006 draft)

The Warriors took a 2nd round flier on the talented Mississippi high school star guard who finished 2nd all time on the state's top career scoring list. After a quiet watch-and-learn rookie season on the bench, Ellis entered the starting lineup for the 2006-2007 season and averaged 16.5 points per game with over 4 assists and 34 minutes per game, never looking back. The Warriors' flier paid off, as Ellis is now the team's leading scorer and thief (2.3 steals) while leading a team known for distributing the basketball well with 5.4 assists per.

Carlos Boozer (Cleveland Cavaliers, 34th overall 2002 draft)

Despite a decorated college career as one of Duke's leading post players during 1999-2002, Boozer slid all the way to the 2nd round in a loaded 2002 draft (Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire, Nene, Caron Butler and a host of heralded others who didn't quite pan out). The Cavs, having figured they already scored with Memphis guard Dajuan Wagner, had to feel as if they scored a bonus when Boozer fell to their 2nd pick.

The funny thing is that Wagner was a non-factor for the pre-LeBron Cavs in a forgettable three seasons, while Boozer became their impact player from the 2002 draft as their top big man before he turned his back on the Cavs to sign with the Utah Jazz in 2004. With the Jazz, he has since become one of the league's best post players, averaging no less than 18.0 points and 9.3 rebounds in any of his five plus seasons since. While the Cavs lost Boozer to free agency, he was still one of the 2002 draft's biggest scores.

Tony Parker (San Antonio Spurs, 28th pick 2001 draft)

The player picked two spots later in this draft, Gilbert Arenas (by the Warriors), would become a greater scorer. But few teams thought much of the teenage French point guard the Spurs happily swept up with the final pick in the 1st round. The Spurs are no strangers to luck with the draft, as you'll see later in this piece... and Parker ended up becoming the team's mainstay leader at point guard, remaining so to this day.

Michael Redd (Milwaukee Bucks, 43rd pick 2000 draft)

The typically woebegone Bucks didn't have much to crow about during the Aughts, but their leading scorer for years to come ended up coming from a forgettable 2nd round pick out of Ohio State University in the 2000 draft. After learning the ropes over his first three seasons, Redd vaulted past the 20.0 PPG mark in 2003-2004 and never looked back. He led the mostly forgettable Bucks in scoring for each of the next five seasons.

Manu Ginobli (San Antonio Spurs, 57th pick 1999 draft)

One year removed from a championship season, a talented Spurs team burned the 2nd to last pick in the 1999 NBA Draft on a lanky 21 year old Argentian wingman that could nail a long-range jumper, dish the rock like a 2nd point guard and take a charge with the sort of flair that draws phantom foul calls from unsuspecting referees. Like many foreign imports before him and since, Ginobli was taken more as a project than as an expected franchise-changer. But like Tony Parker after him, Ginobli's game translated better to the NBA than most could have imagined, and he has been a key player for one of the best teams of the NBA this past decade.

Tim Duncan (San Antonio Spurs, 1st pick 1997 draft)

Wait, you ask, how could the #1 pick in a draft be classified as a steal?

It's not the pick itself, an obvious one as Duncan was far and away the best player in the 1997 draft, but the circumstances that led to the Spurs acquiring their future franchise player.

The Spurs themselves were a fairly tough playoff team during the 1990's, led by star center David Robinson. Early in the 1996-1997 season, however, Robinson went down with a season ending broken foot. This with other injuries left the Spurs in shambles, and a normally competitive Spurs team stumbled to a league worst 20-62 record, which helped them win the NBA Draft Lottery and the 1st pick in the next draft.

This allowed the Spurs to add Wake Forest's Tim Duncan, giving the Spurs the leagues best post duo in the rehabilitated Robinson and the young Duncan. The #1 pick, usually reserved for giving one of the league's worst teams the draft's best talent, had by a twist of fate landed the best talent with one of the league's best teams.

The Spurs won their first NBA Championship the next season, and would go on to win three more NBA titles (2003, 2005, 2007) with Duncan as their centerpiece.

Nick Van Exel (Los Angeles Lakers, 37th pick 1993 draft)

The 3-point specialist out of a talented University of Cincinnati program didn't jump out at any draft scouts, but the Lakers were keen on Van Exel's shooting ability when their 37th pick came up and he remained on the board. Van Exel became the Lakers' starting point guard right away and he became a pivotal star for the post-Magic Lakers. He averaged 14-16 points per game and 7-9 assists during five Laker seasons, while nailing 1528 career threes and logging 76 career playoff games with three different teams over thirteen NBA seasons. Cincy coach Bob "Huggy Bear" Huggins taught him well.

Latrell Sprewell (Golden State Warriors, 25th pick 1992 draft)

Before he became known for choking out coach PJ Carlesimo at a practice, the one time rim-spinning basketball star was a talented but not quite heralded star from the University of Alabama, who jumped ship after a good but not great sophomore season at a so-so college program to go pro. As a result, his stock wasn't terribly high and he fell to the late 1st round, where the Warriors considered him an academic pick at 25. Before attempting to strangle his coach, Sprewell became one of the league's biggest scoring threats with an all around game of hyper speed power-dunks combined with an outside shooter's touch, leading a typically poor Warriors team in scoring from 1993-1994 until he choked out Carlesimo in December 1997.

The attack led to a season long suspension and an eventual trade to the Knicks. Violence and legal troubles hung over Sprewell for the rest of his productive but checkered career, but the Warriors still netted a huge score when he fell to him in the 1992 draft.

No news is good news when it comes to referees... so we're told

With the regular NBA refs locked out, replacement refs get good marks from the Utah Jazz after their preseason opener with the Denver Nuggets. The refs even thwarted a grade-school level trick by the Denver Nuggets when a player tried to take free throws for another player but the refs caught the Nuggets in the act. From the Salt Lake Tribune:

Despite the fact that referees Trey Maddox, Deldre Carr and C.J. Washington called 69 fouls and the Jazz and Nuggets combined to shoot 88 free throws, the participants were generally happy with the officiating.

"Most of the time they did a pretty good job, I think," (Jazz player Mehmet) Okur said.

Jazz coach Jerry Sloan, who seemed upset with a call only once in a game that took 2 hours, 34 minutes to complete, agreed.

"I thought they did fine," he said. "I don't have a problem with that. Then again, we can't spend our time worrying about those guys.

"They're learning, we're learning and you've got to give everybody a chance to [move] forward. I hope everything goes great for them because it makes it easier for us."

In 21 1/2 minutes, (Jazz guard) Deron Williams shot only two free throws.

No problem.

"The officials were good," he said. "I thought they did a good job. They didn't look like replacements to me."

... "I thought they were good," (C.J.) Miles said. "We were able to talk to them. They were responsive. They called it both ways. ... They did a good job for their first game."

I can see the point that this story and other news outlets are trying to make: The replacement refs didn't do anything out of line to get anyone's attention, and by the 'no news is good news' mantra, this indicates the replacements can be trusted to call a clean game down the middle.

What's funny about the Salt Lake Tribune's story is that is does not once mention the final score of the game. Granted, it's preseason and the results don't matter (and the other outlets did mention the score, though they downplayed it), but it's common practice at least number-drop the final score early in the piece. In an attempt to make it clear there's no story, the media outlets make the replacement refs the story.

The NBA did reiterate their longstanding policy of a $25,000 fine to anyone who ever criticizes the officiating, a troublesome policy that has reinforced the questionable, bias officiating over the years that has helped drag down the quality of competition in the NBA. So it's likely the teams and their media mouthpieces alike are all going out of their way to sugar-talk the refs in an attempt to play nice with a league that's got enough problems as they try and hash out a deal with arguably pro sports' worst groups of officials.

Given the money issue, it's actually in the NBA's best financial interests to wash out the ref's union and go full-time with the replacements, and smoothing the tracks for their replacement officials may be a key step in that. One could make the general arguemtn that the quality of replacement officiating is worse than the incumbent officiating, but in the age of Tim Donaghy, Superstar calls and curiously slanted officiating in key playoff games... I can't say the NBA or we as sports fans would lose all that much quality in letting the incumbents walk away... especially if the replacements, as C.J. Miles said, call the games both ways.

... for a change.

Basketball: Where the fix is on

Last year, the University of Washington men's basketball team won 16 games in the process of missing the NCAA Tournament AND the NIT for a second straight disappointing season, and if coach Lorenzo Romar wasn't canned after last season (he wasn't), he was certainly on the hot seat to win this year, and win big, or go home.

Today, UW won their 15th game of the season with more than a month of regular season basketball left, following a surprising 86-75 victory at home over 13th ranked UCLA, amazing given this season looked like more of the same on opening day for UW following an inexplicable 80-74 loss at lowly Portland University.

It looks like an amazing, impressive victory... until you look at the box score, and a familiar problem with basketball at any level rears its ugly head.

Free throws:
UCLA - 10 made in 15 attempted
Washington - 36 made in 43 attempted

Fouls called:
UCLA - 28
Washington - 18

UCLA - road team
Washington - home team

The foul situation and free throws awarded gave UW such a decided advantage that Lorenzo Romar should have been fired if UW lost this game.

Some pundits rave about a team's ability to draw fouls. However, the so-called ability to draw fouls belies the point that a foul is a subjective penalty: a referee must decide a foul has been committed in order for a foul to get called.

Granted, UW starter Justin Dentmon got four fouls called on him, and spent much of the game on the bench himself. His team had to hold serve without the services of one of their best players. Bt this belies the point that the home team, UW, in front of a raucous crowd who came not just to see former star Brandon Roy's jersey retired at Edmundson Pavilion, but to see their then 14-4 ballclub, resurgent after last year's 16-17 disappointment, try and upend arguably the best team in the Pac 10 Conference in UCLA. There was a lot to gain in sending 15,000 home fans happy with a division lead-grabbing win over a top opponent. For now, let's just say one side stands to gain more from receiving the benefit of the doubt.

How officials elect to call fouls in a game varies from game to game. Watch enough games and you will notice a distinctive trend of certain teams getting favorable calls on both sides of the ball, which is statisically justified in surveying Top 25 NCAA Division I squads. For example, Duke, one of the perennial top college teams in the country, plays a game or two at Cameron Indoor Stadium, their home court, and key players on the opposing team get rung up on curious foul calls from vague, ticky-tack contact, landing on the bench with multiple fouls. Duke, meanwhile, contentedly jabs and shoves at their opposition, at times committing what typically would be blatant fouls in knocking the ball from their opponent's possession without a call from the official. After the inevitable Blue Devils' win, the TV pundits praise Duke's ability to take control of the game and shut down the other team's offense, while bashing the other team's erratic foul-prone ways and their 'inability' to stay out of foul trouble. Any officiating mistakes lead to slaps on the wrist, maybe a one game suspension or loss of postseason assignments, but nothing more.

Too often for comfort you get such a discrepancy of fouls called to one team's benefit, typically a home team with a great following with a lot to gain from winning, that cries come from the peanut gallery that the fix is on. We see a lot of favoritism in the NBA as well, dating back to the Jordan Rule, which is not to be confused with the late 80's Detroit Pistons' "Jordan Rules", which in a nutshell were to beat up Michael Jordan and take his wallet... though the Jordan Rule may be the NBA's response to Detroit's Jordan Rules.

The Jordan Rule was the unwritten rule that Bulls star Michael Jordan could basically make all the contact he wanted on defense or, say, take five steps before a dunk and the refs would never call him on it, or an opposing player would get a foul called if he so much as grazed Jordan's wrist while swiping at the ball... because it benefited the league as a whole for Jordan to succeed, so he got the benefit of the doubt 9 times out of 10. It's akin to, say, letting a former football player off the hook for murdering his ex-wife because he's a famous ex-football player. The Jordan Rule wasn't an active rule: simply an unspoken rule put to practice by all officials to benefit the NBA by enhancing its best player's image as a top player.

The crown jewel moment of the Jordan Rule came on the winning shot that sealed the Bulls 6th and final NBA title under Jordan. With the Bulls trailing and needing a go-ahead bucket with seconds left on an inbound play, Utah Jazz leading defender Bryon Russell covered Jordan, and Jordan gave Russell a blatant two handed shove that knocked Russell back a couple feet before taking the inbound pass and a resulting wide open three-pointer that he sunk to seal Utah's doom and Chicago's 6th title. No foul was called. A couple of pundits took notice but the media shushed it away in praising Jordan's dominance.

We see this sort of favoritism in officiating NBA stars like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Shaq and others. And the recent Tim Donaghy gambling scandal certainly didn't help the NBA's officiating credibility.

Be we certainly see it in college basketball. Never mind that the top schools have a lot of the top talent. Despite lacking fundamentals and chemistry, these teams also get a disproportionate advantage in foul calls. It can't all be a giant coincidence, and not every team they play (and many of these Top 25 teams do play other talented teams not known for foul trouble) loses their ability to play defense without fouling players. Eventually, the trend is too decided to simply call it a coincidence, or a product of some innate tangible ability to 'draw fouls'.

Now, this trend doesn't manifest itself every single time. For example, since I love picking on Duke: in Duke's January 17 win over 12th ranked Georgetown, Georgetown managed more free throws by a pinch but still lost. While there were relatively few free throws, there were still a healthy 37 fouls called, so you can't say this game had an officiating crew that kept their hands off. That said, the foul distribution was straight down the middle, and both teams had key players in foul trouble. However, that was also the game where Georgetown postman Greg Monroe got called for a dubious technical foul that allowed Duke to seize some valuable momentum with 15 minutes left. Even though they didn't get all the calls, Duke got a timely call that helped them win the game.

Still, this is not to say that refs fix every game and predetermine every outcome like pro wrestling. Hardly: many crews call a straight game and the teams on the court decide the game themselves. But you get a lot of games where the officials skew the calls in one direction for whatever reason: intimidation from the home crowd, the NCAA, their employing conference or the situation, a few hundred bucks on the home team at -130 to win straight up, etc.

The NBA is losing their fanbase in part because of a sloppy game where officiating, not the play on the court, decides far too many games. College basketball will always have a rabid following, but slanted officiating remains a problem that turns off casual fans. Many diehard fans blow off the need for better officiating, but as the quality of the pro game and the college game decreases despite a continually growing talent base, league officials at all levels ought to make a serious effort to overhaul how their officials call games, and let the players on the court decide the games.

It's nice to see UW win a big game against a Top 25 rival. It would be far nicer to see them win an evenly officiated contest where they did not receive such a blatant opportunity advantage. And I say this as a local fan who wants to see the Huskies succeed... with integrity.