There is only one way to rebuild Chicago State basketball

You will not find a more hopeless program in D1 college basketball than Chicago State. A flat broke university that the State of Illinois seriously considered closing a couple years ago, there's no money, no boosters, and they're forced to play in the D1 wasteland conference that is the WAC, requiring a brutally long road trip for all of their games.

No one in D1 wants to play them unless it's a Power 6 program that needs an easy early-season blowout.

Lance Irvin last offseason took a men's head coaching job that no one wanted, and regardless of his ability to recruit or coach he's not going to get much mileage out of a 2-star group of cast-offs and walk-ons. They're not going to outplay programs who have more talent, more resources, let alone any program that has better coaching. They're not going to out-recruit kids against D1 programs who all have a lot more to offer than Chicago State in every category other than playing time.

So what can Irvin (or any coach that comes after him) do to move this program forward?

There is honestly only one way, one that need only requires effort and repetition.

They've got to play absolutely relentless full court man to man defense, every single possession. On offense, they've got to grind the clock with a basic motion passing game (it doesn't have to be the Princeton offense, but if they could learn it that would work), take open inside looks whenever they get them, and otherwise take good open shots near the end of the shot clock.

Teams don't play full court man to man defense correctly. They typically play it as a press, where you close out players in the backcourt, except then a) they try and press the ballhandler to the sidelines, instead of just playing him close and making him work around that defender, plus 2) defenders back off as soon as the ballhandler gets around the first guy, and let the offense freely advance over the timeline.

It's one thing to close a guy out, to quickly step to a ballhandler's face and defend him close. But your hands and footwork once you're there, the second part, is often forgotten.

An astute ballhandler, if they can't pass out of the close, will immediately try and go around the defender. Most guards are quick and can easily outrun defensive positioning... unless the defender knows how to Bounce and Reach.

Bounce and Reach is the process of stepping back (bounce), then stepping back into (and as necessary disrupting) the defender's path (reach). Done right, this provides the defende a controlled way of staying in front of his man, much more so than the more typical recovery-chase after a driving or advancing ballhandler. You typically should even do it when the ballhandler is stationary or otherwise not advancing with the dribble, re-positioning yourself so the defender lacks a convenient dribbling path around the defender.

This allows you to tightly defend ballhandlers in the backcourt as well as the frontcourt. A key reason full court ball-defenders give up and run back once the guards dribble around is because, whether or not they closed out well, they lack knowledge or ability to bounce and reach. They have no personal Plan B once the ballhandler drives or otherwise dribbles past them, and it's up to help defense to save them.

Also, a key reason coaches shy away from close outs in general is because many modern coaches now teach their players to counter a close-out in the half court by driving around it. This is smart for the above reasons: A ball defender who closes out without any plan B is simply beaten unless his pure athleticism allows him to stay ahead.

Here's the thing with close-outs in the full court: Few ballhandlers will drive the rim from 50-90 feet away. Even if they do, even if they can beat the ball defender, the rest of the defense can step up and help as needed to switch and close out themselves.

And, of course, most players closed out in the backcourt will seek to pass out of it. Then you close out the recipient of the pass (which is easy, because the target can't move while the ball's in the air), and repeat the process. If a potential steal is there, you do what you can to take it. Otherwise, close out the receiver and they once again have to work around it.

You can effectively create an obstacle course of tight defense in the backcourt simply by closing out, then bouncing and reaching to maintain position as long as possible until the ballhandler passes out of it or otherwise escapes.

And, even if they get the ball across the timeline before 10 seconds, you continue closing out, continue bouncing and reaching, and just make the offense work as much as possible to set up and run their offense.

This takes only effort and solid footwork. There's no need to reach in. Keep your hands up and back, and simply look to deny or contest a shot. Because of the effort the offense will require, steals will often create themselves since teams have to play perfectly to work around this kind of defense, and teams won't.

On offense, you need not hustle as hard, but guys off the ball should constantly move and cut to the ball. Ballhandlers should look to make a quick pass or take an open shot in lieu of dribbling. If in doubt, position the offense in more of a 5 out (everyone working from the perimeter), and work from there. Inside scoring opportunities should come from open cuts and drives, rather than posting up and dumping it in. If all you've got are outside looks, spot up and take a three, or if a shooter consistently cans midrange jumpers take that. But make the defense move and shift and adjust. And if they sit back in the paint, take open threes and seek to kill them like that until they come out to meet you.

Don't complicate it beyond that. You already aren't going to outcoach most teams, or recruit better talent. So just grind them up. Make their 40 minutes miserable.

This is probably Chicago State's only plausible path to relevance. I don't know if Lance Irvin is the guy to get them there. But either way this is worth a shot.

How a 96 team NCAA Tournament would have looked this year

To illustrate what a field of 96 would look like, I went through bracketing an entire 96 team field of this season's teams. Of course, the seeds go from #1 to #24 for each region. The top eight seeds in each region receive a first round bye. The lowest seed from there plays the next highest available seed, the 2nd lowest vs the 2nd highest and so on, i.e. #9 plays #24, #10 plays #23, #11 plays #22... until you get to #16 vs #17.

Unlike the 65 team format, being #15 or #16 doesn't mean you suck. Those teams are now in the #23-24 range. The teams at #16 in a 96 team field are more NIT-like: UAB, Texas Tech, NC State and Arizona State are examples of teams in that range. The #16-#17 matchup ensures the #1 seed gets a competitive opponent in the round of 64, now know as the 2nd round.

I itemized all the conference champs, and gave at-large bids to the remaining teams according to their Sagarin ratings. Save for the #1 seeds, and deferring to the Committee's decision to seed Purdue #4 due to the perceived impact of Robbie Hammel's injury... I pretty much followed the Sagarin ratings verboten in assigning the seeds. I did my best to separate conference teams from each other in the brackets, and made sure none of them could meet any earlier than the Sweet 16... and in those cases, such teams were often lower seeds that would each have to pull upsets to meet in the Sweet 16. The most I shifted a team to make a bracket work was one seed higher or lower than they ought to have been, and did my best to put such teams in as competitive a situation as possible relative to what their seed should have been whenever I did shift them.

The last at-large bid was handed to Northeastern, rated #85 by Sagarin. As mentioned, I bypassed six higher rated teams with losing records (I gather the NCAA would have the decency not to invite teams with losing records to the NCAA Tournament). I did not encounter any teams right at .500 but had I done so I would have left them out as well. Winning records only!

96-team bubble teams that just missed: Arizona (16-15), Louisiana Tech (24-10), Charlotte (19-12). Once you pass the #21 seed, the at-larges disappear and you get into the small conference champs and upset mid-major tourney winners. I did my best to keep those teams in a region somewhat close to their home base. The #1 seeds got placed relate to their location: The western-most #1 seed, Kansas, fronts the West Region. Duke gets the South, Kentucky the Midwest and Syracuse the East. As for everyone else, I ignored geography and used an S pattern to seed them in as competitive a manner as possible while keeping conference mates separated.

Now an interesting part. Here are conferences with multiple bids, with their seeds. (C) notes the conference tournament champ:

ACC: 10 bids. #1 Duke (C), #4 Maryland, #7 Georgia Tech, #7 Clemson, #8 Florida State, #9 Wake Forest, #10 Virginia Tech, #15 Miami-Fla, #16 North Carolina and #16 NC State. They could have sent literally all 12 of their teams, but Boston College (#76) and Virginia (#77) had losing records at 15-16.

Atlantic 10: 6 teams. #4 Xavier, #6 Temple (C), #11 Richmond, #13 Dayton, #14 Rhode Island, #20 St Louis.

Big East: 13 teams. #1 Syracuse, #2 West Virginia (C), #3 Villanova, #5 Georgetown, #6 Pittsburgh, #9 Marquette, #12 Notre Dame, #14 Louisville, #15 Connecticut, #15 Cincinnati, #17 Seton Hall, #17 St John's, South Florida.

Big Ten: 7 teams. #2 Ohio State (C), #3 Wisconsin, #4 Purdue, #6 Michigan State, #12 Minnesota, #13 Illinois, #19 Northwestern. (Fun fact: This would have been Northwestern's first ever trip to the NCAA Tournament.)

Big 12: 8 teams. #1 Kansas (C), #2 Kansas State, #3 Baylor, #3 Texas A&M, #5 Texas, #5 Missouri, #10 Oklahoma State, #15 Texas Tech.

Colonial: 3 teams. #9 Old Dominion (C), #17 VCU, #21 Northeastern.

Conference USA: 6 teams. #10 UTEP, #14 Memphis, #16 UAB, #18 Marshall, #19 Tulsa, #22 Houston (C). At #106 in the Sagarin ratings, Houston still wouldn't have been good enough to qualify at-large.

Horizon: 2 teams. #4 Butler (C), #20 Wright State.

Mid American (MAC): 2 teams. #18 Kent State, #21 Ohio U (C). Only a 2 bid conference because of Ohio U's upset run to win the tourney.

Missouri Valley: 2 teams. #8 Northern Iowa (C), #17 Wichita State.

Mountain West: 4 teams. #2 BYU, #6 New Mexico, #11 San Diego State (C), #12 UNLV. No other MWC team had a winning record.

Pac 10: 4 teams. #7 California, #9 Washington, #16 Arizona State, #20 USC. Arizona would have just missed, while USC would be one of the last teams in get in at-large.

SEC: 7 teams. #1 Kentucky (C), #5 Tennessee, #8 Vanderbilt, #11 Ole Miss, #12 Mississippi State, #14 Florida, #18 Alabama.

West Coast (WCC): 3 teams. #7 St Mary's (C), #8 Gonzaga, #20 Portland.

WAC: 3 teams. #11 Utah State, #19 Nevada, #21 New Mexico State (C). NMS of course was not in line for an at-large bid before winning the WAC, rated #96 by Sagarin. Louisiana Tech just missed.

So for those wondering how expansion would expand the at-large field, there's how. Here would be the teams who are the sole reps for their conference:

#23 Vermont (America East)
#23 East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun)
#21 Montana (Big Sky)
#24 Winthrop (Big South)
#22 UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
#10 Cornell (Ivy League)
#13 Siena (Metro Atlantic)
#23 Morgan State (MEAC)
#24 Robert Morris (Northeast)
#13 Murray State (Ohio Valley)
#24 Lehigh (Patriot League)
#19 Wofford (Southern)
#22 Sam Houston State (Southland)
#24 Arkansas Pine Bluff (SWAC)
#22 Oakland (Summit League)
#23 North Texas (Sun Belt)

Another illustration of the field's dilution: Anyone seeded higher than #22 would have gotten in at-large.

Here are my first round matchups. In effect, BTW, the pecking order for the first 12 seeds is how I would have seeded those teams in the actual 65 team NCAA's. The #24s are who would have been my actual #16s, the #23s my actual #15s and the #22s my actual #14s. At #21 and above it's hypothetical at-large teams in a 96 team field.

I'm doing just the first round matchups in text since drawing up a 65 team bracket is enough of a pain, and 96 would be too convoluted to get into a single set of images for this exercise. To help you visualize what the drawn up bracket would look like, first note that the bye recipient would play the winner of the matchup below them. Then note where the #9-16 seeds are in these matchups, and think about where those seeds would go in a conventional 64 team bracket. The winner of the matchups between the #9-16 seeds and their lower seeded opponents would slide into the same place as the #9-16s would typically go within a round of 64, i.e. the #16-17 winner playing the #1, the #13-20 winner playing #4, and then the brackets proceeding accordingly from there. Perhaps if I get time I'll draw these into a JPEG with an actual visual bracket to make it an easier visual, but until then hopefully that helps.

Also, see if you can spot a little childhood in-joke in two of the first round matchups. Clue: I grew up in Vegas watching UNLV basketball.

******

WEST REGIONAL

#1 Kansas
BYE

#16 NC State
#17 Seton Hall

#8 Northern Iowa
BYE

#9 Wake Forest
#24 Ark Pine Bluff

#4 Butler
BYE

#13 Murray State
#20 St Louis

#5 Georgetown
BYE

#12 Mississippi State
#21 Montana

#3 Wisconsin
BYE

#14 Louisville
#19 Tulsa

#6 Temple
BYE

#11 Utah State
#22 UC Santa Barbara

#2 BYU
BYE

#15 Miami-Florida
#18 South Florida

#7 California
BYE

#10 Oklahoma State
#23 North Texas

******

SOUTH REGIONAL

#1 Duke
BYE

#16 Arizona State
#17 VCU

#8 Vanderbilt
BYE

#9 Marquette
#24 Winthrop

#4 Xavier
BYE

#13 Illinois
#20 Portland

#5 Texas
BYE

#12 UNLV
#21 New Mexico State

#3 Villanova
BYE

#14 Memphis
#19 Nevada

#6 New Mexico
BYE

#11 Ole Miss
#22 Sam Houston State

#2 Kansas State
BYE

#15 Connecticut
#18 Kent State

#7 St Mary's
BYE

#10 Virginia Tech
#23 East Tennessee State

******

MIDWEST REGIONAL

#1 Kentucky
BYE

#16 UAB
#17 St John's

#8 Florida State
BYE

#9 Washington
#24 Robert Morris

#4 Purdue
BYE

#13 Dayton
#20 USC

#5 Missouri
BYE

#12 Notre Dame
#21 Northeastern

#3 Baylor
BYE

#14 Rhode Island
#19 Wofford

#6 Michigan State
BYE

#11 San Diego State
#22 Oakland

#2 West Virginia
BYE

#15 Texas Tech
#18 Alabama

#7 Georgia Tech
BYE

#10 UTEP
#23 Morgan State

******

EAST REGIONAL

#1 Syracuse
BYE

#16 North Carolina
#17 Wichita State

#8 Gonzaga
BYE

#9 Old Dominion
#24 Lehigh

#4 Maryland
BYE

#13 Siena
#20 Wright State

#5 Tennessee
BYE

#12 Minnesota
#21 Ohio University

#3 Texas A&M
BYE

#14 Florida
#19 Northwestern

#6 Pittsburgh
BYE

#11 Richmond
#22 Houston

#2 Ohio State
BYE

#15 Cincinnati
#18 Marshall

#7 Clemson
BYE

#10 Cornell
#23 Vermont

******

And there you have it. What kind of possibilities would you foresee from such a set of matchups and brackets?

2010 CBI Tournament Probabilities; Early Rounds

The CBI is the brain-child of the Gazelle Group, who decided in 2007 that a 65 team NCAA Tournament and 32 team NIT wasn't enough postseason basketball, and thus the 16 team CBI was born.

Between these three tourneys and the newly created Collegeinsider.com Tournament, there were a lot of spots and in a down year not a lot of eligible and willing teams. Appropriately enough, several eligible teams refused to play in the CBI. The snubs and the alternate tournament left such a dearth of eligible teams that the CBI actually had to delay announcing their field for several hours as they scrambled to fill it. The end result though, similar to the Collegeinsider.com Tournament, is a mix of mid-majors and high end conference low-enders.

Since the CBI follows a wonky four pod seeding format and then re-seeds teams before their semifinal, I'm not going to do a full tournament projection. Instead, I'll project each team's chances of making the CBI Final Four. I'll do a subsequent post after the re-seeding for the CBI Final Four teams.

Motivations will not be considered here as I did with the NIT, since most of these teams are low and mid-major conference teams who are happy to play.

Odds of making the CBI Final Four:

East:

1. Saint Louis: 53.9%
2. Akron: 29.2%
3. UW Green Bay: 10 to 1
4. Indiana State: 12 to 1

South:

1. George Washington: 31.1%
2. Eastern Kentucky: 6 to 1
3. College of Charleston: 9 to 1
4. VCU: 43.3%

West:

1. Oregon State: 42.1%
2. Morehead State: 36.8%
3. Colorado State: 8 to 1
4. Boston U: 9 to 1

Midwest:

1. Hofstra: 41.0%
2. Princeton: 26.3%
3. Duquesne: 11 to 2
4. IUPUI: 5 to 1

Quick notes:

- As you can see, very few teams are out of the hunt. This is a fairly competitive field from top to bottom, with a lot of parity. Had many of the CBI's desired majors accepted a bid, this would not have happened. As it stands, a lot of low and mid-majors meshed with the lesser big conference teams to create parity.

- VCU was badly mis-seeded but it looks like the CBI got it right otherwise.

- In fact, without knowing the re-seeding matchups, VCU is my pick to win this thing.

Final note: Though I planned to do a preview of the Collegeinsider.com Tournament (CIT), the unspecified re-draw format for subsequent rounds makes that a bit infeasible. Therefore, I won't bother. But I will say my bird's-eye pick to win the CIT is Portland.

Predicting the Hard to Predict NIT

It's not a rigorous field that makes the NIT difficult to project, but the motivation factors of major and mid-major conference teams deflated over missing the NCAA Tournament. Many teams who don't refuse an invitation to the NIT often fall flat, opening the door for a more motivated middle of the road team to make a run at the NIT Final Four in Madison Square Garden.

Projecting the NIT would be straightforward and easy if not for the distinct possibility that many of the top teams will likely phone in their first and/or second round games and take a quick exit. The challenge is figuring our which of the favorites and dark horses will come to play... and which of the favorites may not be up to the task.

So rather than weigh the odds (and, since you're wondering, those odds all say the #1 seeds are at least 2 to 1 favorites on paper, though that assumes the teams will play at full speed), let's play media psychoanalysis for a bit and examine the reactions of key teams to gauge who's going to geek up for the NIT and who's probably going to go through the motions and take a quick exit.

Dead weight:

Illinois: Whether or not they're disappointed, the Illini have already run into a hubris-related problem. They can't play their 1st round game with Stony Brook in Champaign because the school booked Cirque du Soleil to play the home gym that night, obviously anticipating the Illini would make the NCAA Tournament and not need it. Though the Illini remain a favorite to beat the lowly Seawolves, the America East regular season champs, it's not a good start for a team many figured would roll into the NCAAs in March.

Money quote: "The guys were extremely disappointed in the locker room. It'll be tough to get out of the mindset of disappointment." - Bill Cole, Forward

Mississippi and Mississippi State: Both Mississippi teams came into the SEC Tournament on the outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble looking in, and neither managed to do enough to get in according to the committee. Both coaches (Andy Kennedy for Ole Miss, Rick Stansbury for Mississippi State) tried to downplay their teams' disappointment and insist they were upbeat for the NIT. But Mississippi State is likely gassed physically and emotionally after taking Kentucky to the wire in the SEC Final, and Ole Miss probably isn't feeling hot after following an easy four game win streak to close the regular season with a thud-loss to Tennessee in their opening SEC tourney game. It's doubtful either loses their opening round NIT game: Ole Miss should be able to handle Troy, and Mississippi State can take care of Jackson State. But each faces matchup problems in the next round with possibly motivated foes.

Money quotes: "We had our opportunities to close it out (the SEC Final vs Kentucky). That's part of the game," Mississippi State coach Rick Stansbury said. "And I can promise you, there's not one ounce left in them."

"Although we are obviously disappointed in not reaching the NCAA tournament, we're looking forward to continuing our season against Troy," said Rebels coach Andy Kennedy.

Note the political clean-ness of the last quote by the head coach. This is typically code for, "Yeah, we're phoning this bad boy in."

Virginia Tech: They got screwed by the Selection Committee to the benefit of marginally deserving Florida, and at this point Seth Greenberg's working as hard to get his team motivated for a tournament run as he is to assemble footage of his opponents. Tech's laid enough eggs to show they don't have the pedigree to just flip on the cruise control and ride into MSG, so they need to play with passion to get there and indications are that... it's not there.

Money quote: “We’ve got a chance to play,” said Seth Greenberg. “We have a chance to go to New York and cut down the nets. That’s going to be the vision we’re going to sell to our team and you know, we’re playing against a team that won 23 games so you know, we’re playing against a team that’s used to winning. We’ve got to get ourselves ready to play and that’s my job.”

Money Quote #2: "Obviously, they were disappointed, why wouldn't they be disappointed?" Tech coach Seth Greenberg told reporters Sunday night. "But as I told them before we started practice today, whether we get in or do not get in, it shouldn't take away from what we have accomplished this year. This team showed tremendous resiliency and they should be really proud of what they accomplished and feel good about themselves."

Reflective quotes on the season are sign #2 that a team is tuning out for the NIT.

Coming to play:

Cincinnati: Despite losing junior forward Rashad Bishop to team-rules suspension, the Bearcats gave a spirited effort in the Big East Tournament, upsetting Louisville before suffering defeat to West Virginia, and appears geeked up for the NIT. They shoot bricks from anywhere outside hook-shot range, but rebound well and play decent enough defense to make a serious run at MSG if Illinois doesn't want it.

Money quotes: The Bearcats said they’re excited about playing in the NIT. “It ain’t the tournament that I wanted,” said senior guard Deonta Vaughn. “But what can we say? We lost a tough one (to West Virginia). That kind of hurt us deep down inside. But the NIT is better than the CBI.”

“It would mean that we made a lot of progress,” Vaughn said. “First we got the CBI, now we got the NIT, then hopefully next year they’ll go to the NCAA.”

“The NIT will help us build on what we’re going to be next year,” said junior forward Ibrahima Thomas. “Our next season is going to start with the NIT.”

Arizona State: The Sun Devils kind of knew after losing to Stanford in the Pac 10 Tourney that they were probably out of the big dance despite finishing 2nd in an admittedly weak Pac 10. Still, any disappointment appears to be more with their inconsistent season as a whole rather than being left out of the dance. Signs point to the Sun Devils taking the NIT seriously as they earn their second #1 NIT seed in three years.

Money quote: “The season isn’t over,” Eric Boateng said. “We’re still in the NIT and there’s still great competition, players and teams. That’s where my focus is now. The season’s not over until it’s over. We still have basketball to play and hopefully a championship to win.”

North Carolina: Coach Roy Williams is a man of pride, and even amidst one of his worst seasons as a major college head coach leading to a disappointing miss from the NCAAs and his first ever trip to the NIT, he's not about to let a team of his pack it in and lay an egg in the NIT under his watch. He gets a good but beatable William and Mary squad at home in round one, then likely travels to Mississippi State against a deflated Bulldogs squad ripe for the picking. Dadgumit, this team might actually win a title yet... even if it is the NIT title.

Money quotes: "I'm just really excited for another opportunity to play," fifth-year senior Marcus Gilyard said. "I'm just hoping we finish this off better than we did the regular season."

"I'm playing for this year," Roy Williams said. "I don't think I can cheat (seniors) Deon (Thompson) and Marcus, that's not fair. ... I'm coaching for this year, this team, trying to get this team to win one more game. And if we do that, I'll try to get them to win one more game. I think that's the best way I can do it."

UAB: UNC's biggest obstacle might not be top seed Mississippi State, but Mike Davis' Blazers, who came into this season hoping for the NCAA's but appear very enthusiastic about playing in the NIT. They certainly have the pedigree to get to MSG, mixing solid shot-contesting defense with an uncanny ability to draw fouls and get to the line.

Money quote: UAB point guard Aaron Johnson still was excited about the team’s postseason opportunity. “I just think about being able to play basketball again,” Johnson said. “I know we were very close to making the NCAA Tournament but that was on us. We let ourselves down, nobody else let us down. We just are happy to be able to play some more basketball.”

Bulleted thoughts on Championship Week's developments

- Thanks to Utah State and UTEP losing, the bubble just lost two bids. Utah State should still get in, but barely, while UTEP is still comfortably in and is probably a 9 seed... but now they're taking at-large bids instead of automatic bids. The bubble might have got one back when UW downed Cal in the Pac 10 final, but UW was looking to sneak in anyway so maybe not.

- Thanks to their surprise run to win the Mountain West, San Diego State is in, though they may have made it at-large anyway on the strength of their upset over New Mexico in the semis. Said upset should quiet the darling hype the Lobos were getting from the media, as the upset loss probably now leaves them as a #6. SDSU is a #10 or #11. Though the MWC final looked like an elimination game going into today, UNLV may barely make it in as a #11 or #12: They probably had enough on their resume to get in before that game.

- Who probably loses in the bubble race? Believe it or not, the SEC. Mississippi State played themselves onto the bubble but the UTEP/Utah State upsets screwed the pooch there, so now they've probably got to beat likely #1 seed Kentucky to get in... not likely. And Ole Miss and Florida played themselves out with early SEC Tournament losses. The SEC may only send three teams: Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. They can make it four if UK lays down for the Bulldogs. UK is still a #1 seed, though, while Tennessee is probably a #5 and Vanderbilt (unless they get another favor from the Committee) is probably a #7.

- Another likely bubble casualty is Wake Forest, who took a drop from an upset loss to Miami-Fla and would have been right on the edge of the bubble had the UTEP/Utah State losses not happened.

- And the way the upsets fell like dominoes today, you have to wonder if conference refs had top teams take a dive to get extra conference teams in. Ethics are only something to bully-pulpit about in the NCAA.

- Don't be surprised to see Northern Iowa get a single digit seed on Sunday.

- Syracuse might have played their way out of a #1 seed with their quarterfinal loss to Georgetown, who might have played their way into a #3.

- Minnesota, left for dead on the side of the road after getting owned late this season by Michigan, may have played their way in with today's surprising annihilation of Purdue, who without Robbie Hammel may now have dropped to a 3 seed, maybe lower if the Committee's that unimpressed.

- The Big East is still sending eight teams. Not that I had serious doubt, but Richmond's upset of Xavier solidifies them as the A-10's 3rd tourney team

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

Part 30 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

After 29 other tournaments and several convoluted tournament scenarios and formats... our final tournament is a straightforward eight team, three round tournament with a clear favorite, a clear dark horse and a bunch of longshots.

Utah State's move to the WAC years ago was a good idea, even as the conference was besieged with defections and the founding of the Mountain West. They are the big dogs in a conference with enough of a mid-major profile to get them on the map, and rated 38 in the Sagarin ratings, they have what it takes to get in at-large if somehow they don't win the WAC tournament, which they should as a 50.8% favorite.

The obvious dark horse to knock them off is the #2 seed and tournament host, Nevada. With the tournament in Reno and a halfway decent team that might win the CBI but nothing more, the Wolfpack have a 7 to 3 shot (30.3%) to win, and post the biggest challenge to the Aggies in the Final.

But really, it's likely Utah State rolls through their three rounds, collects their trophy and cruises on into the NCAA's as a #10 seed.

Here are the WAC odds for every team involved.

1. Utah State: Even (50.8%)
2. Nevada: 2.3 to 1 (30.3%)
3. New Mexico State: 28.1 to 1
4. Louisiana Tech: 11.8 to 1
5. Fresno State: 57.4 to 1
6. San Jose State: 54.3 to 1
7. Idaho: 37.9 to 1
8. Boise State: 62.5 to 1

And with that, this 30 part series of conference projections is complete! I hope you enjoyed a look at everyone's odds, and perhaps gotten a better idea of what odds teams face of winning a conference tournament. I look forward to projecting the forthcoming NCAA Tournament, NIT, CBI and Collegeinsider.com Tournament.

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Southeast Conference (SEC)

Part 29 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Kentucky's definitely the best team in the SEC and, as things stand, a likely #1 NCAA Tournament seed coming into the SEC tournament. But believe it or not, they're not the favorite.

Kentucky, at 11 to 5 (31.0%) to win as the #1 East seed, isn't as good a shot to win as tournament host Vanderbilt at 9 to 5 (36.2%). This would be a 50-50 matchup if these two teams were to meet in the tournament final, but Vandy, as the #2 East seed has a slightly easier road to the Final than Kentucky. Vanderbilt is no less than a 71.4% favorite in any possible game up to the finals, but Kentucky will likely face a dangerous foe in the semis in #2W Ole Miss (29.7% chance of beating UK) or #3E Tennessee (39.4%).

After that, only 7 to 1 Tennessee is a dark horse. The next closest shot to win is #1 West seed Mississippi State at 13 to 1. And despite their high seed, Mississippi State is rated 56 in the Sagarin ratings, indicating they're probably NIT bound if they don't win out.

The SEC has an unusually perilous at-large perch. Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt are definitely in, but Florida and Ole Miss are on the bubble.

Florida, rated 43, absolutely has to beat Auburn in the opening round, then it's a toss up as to whether a 50-50 matchup with Mississippi State in the quarters requires that they win or if they can afford a loss and still get into the NCAA's. For their sake, the Gators may as well assume they need to win that game to get in. Anything beyond that is gravy.

Ole Miss, rated 45, would be an underdog to likely opponent Tennessee (LSU's a 10 to 1 underdog to beat the Vols) and jury's out if a close loss would be enough to bump them in. With few upsets rattling the at-large picture, ranking in the low 40's might be enough, but that's danger territory no matter what.

As for the definite ins, Vanderbilt has a funny tendency of getting higher than deserved seeds from the Selection Committee, so far be it from me to say their projected #7 is absolute. But it's highly recommended they reach the final if they want to take advantage of that favoritism. The committee may be willing to humor that #7-ish placement otherwise.

Tennessee is about a #5 right now, and as an opening round seed, they could boost that profile with a run to the semis. They have a chance against Kentucky (39.3%) but are definitely an underdog in a potential semis matchup. They could play their way up from #5 if they pull that upset.

Kentucky is one of my picks for a #1 seed, and they've got to win out to keep that rep, even though I find it hard to believe West Virginia or Villanova in the Big East could play their way into giving the Big East a 2nd #1 (Syracuse is a lock for a #1 seed) unless they win out. Kentucky can end that conversation, however, by winning out.

Here are the SEC odds for every team involved:

SEC East Seeds:

1. Kentucky: 11 to 5 (31.0%)
2. Vanderbilt: 9 to 5 (36.2%)
3. Tennessee: 7 to 1
4. Florida: 22.2 to 1
5. South Carolina: 173.8 to 1
6. Georgia: 174 to 1

SEC West seeds:

1. Mississippi State: 13.1 to 1
2. Mississippi: 15.1 to 1
3. Arkansas: 388.3 to 1
4. Alabama: 84.5 to 1
5. Auburn: 411.2 to 1
6. LSU: 9628.8 to 1

Next: Our final conference tournament... the WAC

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big Ten

Part 28 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Don't believe the hype behind Robbie Hummel's injury sinking Purdue. Aside from a home loss to surging Michigan State, Purdue hasn't lost since their star forward's season ending injury and is part of a three team horse race in the lead to win the Big Ten Tournament. Purdue, the #2 seed, is 3 to 1 (25.8%), while #4 seed Wisconsin is 5 to 2 (27.8%) and everyone's pick, Ohio State, is a bit behind them both at 3 to 1 (24.3%).

#3 Michigan State is the dark horse at 15 to 2, with no one else closer than 16 to 1 (#6 Minnesota, who by the way blew their chance at an at-large bid down the stretch).

The Big Ten has four tournament-worthy teams. Seeds are estimated according to Sagarin rating.

- Purdue's loss of Hammel may bump them from a deserved #2 seed unless they make a do-able run to the title.

- Ohio State may take that #2 seed if they indeed win out, but Wisconsin is a threat (54.4%) to take them down in the semis, while either Purdue (49.3%) or Michigan State (41.0%) could give them a serious fight in the final. Ohio State is in #4 seed territory right now and definitely needs to make the final to improve that.

- Wisconsin should be a #3 seed but loses points for being #4 in the Big Ten. They are favored in every possible matchup and could get that #3 by winning out... maybe more if the Selection Committee's impressed with the run.

- Michigan State slots as a tenuous #6 seed right now, and getting as far as the semis will solidify that, but short of winning the tournament there's not much they can do to go higher than that. A loss to Minnesota in the quarters could drop them to #7.

Speaking of Minnesota, they're definitely an NIT team, as is Illinois. Northwestern might be. An upset would turn 'might' into 'definitely will'.

Here are the Big Ten odds for every team involved:

1. Ohio State: 3.1 to 1 (24.3%)
2. Purdue: 2.9 to 1 (25.8%)
3. Michigan State: 7.4 to 1
4. Wisconsin: 2.6 to 1 (27.8%)
5. Illinois: 41.2 to 1
6. Minnesota: 15.8 to 1
7. Northwestern: 138.2 to 1
8. Michigan: 102.2 to 1
9. Iowa: 6810.3 to 1
10. Indiana: 5558.3 to 1
11. Penn State: 579.6 to 1

Next: The SEC

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

Part 27 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

We are now down to the last of the major conferences. This series will be done after tonight and all that's left is to watch the tourneys and see how they play out.

The ACC is one of college basketball's strongest conferences in a down year, with 6-7 likely tournament teams among the field. But like the Big 12 the field will be at the mercy of one big dog: The Duke Blue Devils. Duke is a 63.8% odds on favorite to win, with no one all that close to catching them. #2 Maryland, at 13 to 2, is the 2nd most likely team to win the ACC and the only team at under 14 to 1 to win.

With North Carolina down this year and such a muddled ACC field that Florida State and Virginia Tech have first round byes, Coach K's kids have no excuses. The only reasonable outcome for them is to win out and clinch a #1 seed in the NCAAs.

All that said, let's see where the potential tourney teams stand and what they need to do in the ACC tourney to improve their position.

#2 Maryland: Pretty much a #4 seed in the NCAAs barring an amazing development. Amazing developments include laying a quarterfinal egg against Georgia Tech or North Carolina, getting chop blocked in the semis or finals by some freak ACC Cinderella run, and beating Duke in the final to win the ACC Tournament outright. Anything inbetween is reasonable and shouldn't adversely affect their possible seeding. A run to the finals could get them a #3. Anything higher and the committee's in the bag.

#3 Florida State: Rare is the year FSU is a serious contender, but they're probably a #7 even if they fall in the quarters after their bye (Clemson would be favored if the Tigers won their opening round game to meet FSU). They could sneak a #6 seed if they face and knock off Clemson, then give at least an admirable effort in defeat in the semis. If Duke falls, there is a reasonable chance they could win the whole thing, and that of course would boost them farther.

#4 Virginia Tech: Repeat what I said about FSU contending for VT. Tech basketball just isn't supposed to do well, let alone get 1st round byes in the ACC tourney. VT is in the driver's seta for an #8 seed provided they at least play a close game with the winner of Wake Forest and Miami. A win will at least seal that, and they're probably facing Duke in the semis so not much to prognosticate beyond that.

#5 Wake Forest: Amidst a down year like many other big time programs, Wake is probably a #9 or #10 this year, but should be in unless they get somehow humilated. They're a favorite to beat Miami in the opening round, and getting a win before bowing to Virginia Tech isn't too bad or unreasonable an outcome.

#6 Clemson: Always a scrappy contender, Clemson's on the bcak end of a #6 seed right now and looking at a #7 unless they give a strong showing, which means beating NC State in the opening round and at the least taking Florida State to the wire in the quarters if they're going to lose. Winning that game would be nice. As with the others, Duke taking an early upset loss would upgrade their ACC title chances to 'fairly possible' and that could probably get them a #4 or #5.

#7 Georgia Tech: The one ACC team on the bubble, the Yellow Jackets have a difficult first round matchup vs a North Carolina team with their backs to the wall. GT has to win this game to stay out of bubble trouble. A win after the first round is unlikely, but unnecessary. They are probably a #10 or #11 provided they get in.

Anyone not mentioned is on the outside looking in, and nowhere close to qualifying at-large. Anyone not named Virginia is an NIT candidate (Virginia's only chance at the CBI-level tourneys is to reach the semis, and given they're a 30 to 1 shot to reach the semis, good luck to that). If Boston College loses in the first round, though, no NIT for them: They'd be 15-16 in D-I play and losing records are dealbreakers.

NC State is 17-14 but being 71 in the Sagarin ratings indicates they may be on the NIT bubble. UNC and Miami, however, are definitely in the NIT if they choose to play.

Chance of upsetting Duke in a head-to-head matchup:

Maryland: 24.1%
Florida State: 18.2%
Virginia Tech: 13.4%
Wake Forest: 14.9%
Clemson: 20.5%
Georgia Tech: 15.2%
Boston College: 8.4%
Virginia: 7.1%
North Carolina: 11.3%
NC State: 8.9%
Miami-Fla: 9.7%

Here are the ACC odds for every team involved:

1. Duke: 63.8%
2. Maryland: 6.7 to 1
3. Florida State: 14.2 to 1
4. Virginia Tech: 28 to 1
5. Wake Forest: 37.2 to 1
6. Clemson: 16.3 to 1
7. Georgia Tech: 44.5 to 1
8. Boston College: 210.5 to 1
9. Virginia: 385.4 to 1
10. North Carolina: 123.2 to 1
11. NC State: 269.3 to 1
12. Miami-Fla: 157.1 to 1

Next: The Big Ten

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)

Part 26 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Arkansas Pine Bluff started the season with an absolutely brutal non-conference schedule that included force fed beatings on the road from UTEP, Arizona State, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Missouri, Kansas State and Oregon, all in succession before they began SWAC conference play... with an overtime win against Mississippi Valley State.

One 14-4 conference season later, the only thing ugly about Pine Bluff's outlook is their overall record. The impossible non-conference stretch managed to battle-harden them for their SWAC conference schedule, and once that began they were clearly head and shoulders above most of the lowly conference, typically a farm for 16 seeds, en route to finishing 2nd in conference play.

And none of this is to say Pine Bluff isn't a 16 seed if they win out: Their record alone would probably land them in the Play-In Game (they'd be 17-15 should they win out), but Sagarin has them rated 247 out of 347 teams, best in the SWAC, and Pomeroy has them rated 242. They are definitely a 16 seed if they take the SWAC.

And the reason I dwell on them is because they are the 3 to 2 favorite (40.5%) to win the SWAC. Credit the schedule. Credit their resolve. Or credit the crappiness of a conference whose bottom five teams are among the 15 worst teams in all of Division I according to Sagarin: Last place Alcorn State, left out of the tournament, is in fact 347th out of 347 D-I teams. Southern University, also left out, is 345th, while 8th seed Grambling is 344th.

Dark horses to knock off the comeback kids are top seeded Jackson State (9 to 2) and #5 Texas Southern (4 to 1), with #3 Alabama State (17 to 2) in the distance.

Here are the SWAC odds for every team involved:

1. Jackson State: 4.7 to 1
2. Ark Pine Bluff: 3 to 2 (40.5%)
3. Alabama State: 8.4 to 1
4. Prairie View: 13.3 to 1
5. Texas Southern: 3.9 to 1
6. Alabama A&M: 55.5 to 1
7. Mississippi Valley State: 55.9 to 1
8. Grambling: 201.5 to 1

Next: The ACC, where certainly Duke is Duke. They're on TV more than Leave it To Beaver... reruns

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Southland

Part 25 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Usually offering a designated whipping boy slash 16-seed of the tournament, the Southland conference could send an honest to goodness underdog competitor to the NCAA's, if regular season champ and top seed Sam Houston State runs the table as expected in the 8 team, three round tourney in suburban Katy, TX to claim the conference's NCAA bid. Sam Houston State (18-7) is rated 105 by the Sagarin ratings, indicating that they could get an honest to goodness seed of substance, something like a 13 or 14 instead of a 16 and the need to pray that they don't have to play-in at Dayton for the right to get owned by Kansas.

SHS is a 6 to 5 favorite (48.5%) to win the tourney, and isn't facing significant resistance from any one foe. Top dark horses to knock them off include #2 Stephen F Austin (13 to 2), the over-named #3 Texas A&M Corpus Christi (7 to 1) and #6 Texas San Antonio (19 to 2). There is a significant chance they get knocked off, but it's more of a general shot. No one team poses a grave threat to their season.

And none of those teams would provide more than the same old same old in the NCAAs, another piece of cannon fodder for the Kansas and Dukes of the world to run over en route to the 2nd round. Sam Houston State is not just the favorite to advance, but the fledgling Southland Conference's best chance to make a good impression in the NCAA's with a respectable showing or, better yet, a Cinderella upset... easily one of the conference's better impressions in the past few years.

Here are the Southland Conference odds for every team involved.

1. Sam Houston State: 6 to 5 (48.5%)
2. Stephen F Austin: 6.4 to 1
3. Texas A&M Corpus Christi: 6.9 to 1
4. SE Louisiana: 10 to 1
5. Texas State: 30.9 to 1
6. Texas San Antonio: 9.4 to 1
7. Texas Arlington: 34.9 to 1
8. Nicholls State: 120 to 1

Next: The SWAC, aka Southwestern Athletic Conference, aka the official conference of one half of the Play-In Game

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Pacific 10 (Pac 10)

Part 24 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Is there a team outside of #Washington, #California and #ArizonaSt that could win the #PAC-10 tournament?

Sure, Jay. But it's a dim 7 to 1 shot that someone else will.

The three teams Jay Williams mention are the clear favorites, led by the only legit at-large team in a down Pac 10 in Cal at 3 to 2 (41.3%). UW (3 to 1) and ASU (4 to 1) have decent shots, but are the only non-longshots behind Cal in the field.

And both dark horses carry the sense of urgency that comes with being on the bad end of the bubble, though to their credit they were definitely on the outside looking in a few weeks before thanks to midseason struggles. Washington is 46th in the Sagarin ratings and Arizona State 47th. Both are slated for a semifinal clash, and both absolutely need to reach the final at the absolute least to have a real shot at an at-large bid. And even then, they can only afford to lose to Cal. In the unlikely event the Golden Bears are beaten beforehand, the Huskies or Sun Devils would do themselves good to just win the tourney outright, because at that point there is no scenario where they can lose and have a case for anything other than a #1 NIT seed. Cal was in perilous danger of leaving the Pac 10 with no at-large worthy teams, but a strong finish has them in line for an 8-9 seed provided they at least reach the final. They're definitely in no matter what.



Special note must be given to #5 UCLA on account of holy hell Ben Howland what the hell happened to the 2009-2010 Bruins this year? What was one of the Pac 10's stronger programs faceplanted to a 3-7 start that include losses to lofty opponents like Cal State Fullerton, Portland and Long Beach State. The Bruins might have recovered despite that if not for a 3-4 midseason stretch that included losses to fellow Pac 10 failboats Stanford and Oregon... as well as a disastrous 2-6 finish to the regular season that included another loss to Oregon. Save for the unlikely event that they win the Pac 10 Tournament (21 to 1), the Bruins are doing absolutely nothing come tournament time, not even the CBI Tournament. They would be underdogs to even make it out of the first round if not for the tourney being in their backyard in Los Angeles.

Here are the Pac 10 odds for every team involved.

1. California: 3 to 2 (41.3%)
2. Arizona State: 3.8 to 1 (20.7%)
3. Washington: 2.9 to 1 (25.9%)
4. Arizona: 23.8 to 1
5. UCLA: 20.6 to 1
6. Oregon State: 134.4 to 1
7. Stanford: 71.5 to 1
8. Oregon: 188.5 to 1
9. Washington State: 136.3 to 1

Next: The Southland Conference

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Mountain West

Part 23 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

UNLV gets to host the Mountain West Tournament a little too often, having hosted eight of the last eleven Mountain West tourneys. Notice how UNLV frequently tends to win the Mountain West Tournament when they're hosting: All three of their Mountain West titles in the last 10 years (2000, 2007, 2008) came at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas, and two other times (2002, 2003) they reached the final only to lose the Championship and automatic NCAA Tournament bid in a tight game. UNLV did not win the Mountain West during the three non-Vegas tournaments in Denver, and only reached the final in 2004.

So the Runnin' Rebels have to be happy while the rest of the Mountain West has to be grating their teeth at yet another installment of the Mountain West Tournament at the Thomas and Mack. #3 UNLV is among the favorites to win it all at 3 to 1 (25.9%), but they're not the favorite.

That favorite, however, is not media darling New Mexico, the regular season Mountain West champ who has gotten a series of mainstream media mouthjobs from their 28-3 regular season, with talk that the Lobos might deserve a three seed. The Sagarin ratings disagree, rating them 22nd, which is around 5 seed territory. They can inch their way to a 4 seed with a run to the finals, but they are in fact a big underdog to two potential Final opponents.

One is UNLV, and the other is a familiar face among mid-major powers and the favorite to win: #2 BYU. Yes, they took a late season loss to the Lobos, but Sagarin still rates them 9th overall in the nation despite it, and the Mormon Cougars are a 3 to 2 favorite to win the Mountain West (42.3%). If BYU and the Lobos played ten more times on a neutral floor, BYU would probably win seven of those matchups.

The only other legitimate shot to win is Steve Fisher's #4 San Diego State Aztecs at 7 to 1. Don't consider that a ringing endorsement: They probably win their opening game against #5 Colorado State and then face the underdog life against #1 New Mexico (45.7%), let alone underdog odds against likely Final opponents BYU (26.5%) and UNLV (32.8%). If the Lobos send the Aztecs home, SDSU needs to cross their fingers that they looked good enough (and other teams looked bad enough) to sneak into the NCAA Tournament. Right now the 20-8 Aztecs are on the wrong end of the bubble and could really use a big (and do-able) upset against the Lobos.

But then again, SDSU made the final of last year's tournament and missed the dance despite a stronger rating than they have this year (though they parlayed that denial into a trip to the NIT Final Four at MSG). However, upsets in othe conference tourneys and a decent at-large field sunk the Aztecs' at-large hopes in 2009, while a consensus weak field of at-large teams overall and a relative lack of upsets by outsiders could play to their benefit in 2010... if SDSU can repeat last year's run and pull a big upset. Of course, the Aztecs could also just win the tournament, but that's a hardway bet at best.

Here are the Mountain West odds for every team involved:

1. New Mexico: 4.3 to 1 (18.8%)
2. BYU: 3 to 2 (42.3%)
3. UNLV: 2.9 to 1 (25.9%)
4. San Diego State: 7.3 to 1
5. Colorado State: 314.7 to 1
6. Utah: 232.2 to 1
7. TCU: 1118 to 1
8. Wyoming: 3570.5 to 1
9. Air Force: 16753.8 to 1

Next: The Pac-10

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Conference USA

Part 22 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

UTEP has completed one of their best regular seasons in years with a 24-5 record that has them ranked 34th in the Sagarin ratings, planted on the front end of the NCAA Tournament bubble. That's the good news.

The bad news is that it's not only going to be hard for UTEP to win the Conference USA tournament even though they're a 5 to 2 favorite (27.3%), but there's no way they can take a loss without doing damage to their ratings, as they are technically favored in every single possible matchup the tournament could give them. However, several of those matchups are in doubt: #2 seed Memphis (3 to 1), on the decline following coach John Calipari's departure, has a 48.6% chance to beat the Miners if they meet in the final. #3 UAB (11 to 2), reborn under reborn head coach Mike Davis (he who crashed and burned under pressure with Indiana a few years ago), would have a 40.4% chance vs UTEP in the final.

UTEP could run into trouble before the final. #5 Tulsa (9 to 2) is hosting the tournament and could meet UTEP in the semis with a 49% chance to win. Even if #4 Marshall holds serve, the Thundering Herd are a 37.8% shot to knock off UTEP.

The Miners are (appropriately?) facing a minefield after the quarters, and a loss to any of the possible danger teams could jeopardize their at-large tournament hopes. There isn't a scenario where UTEP can get knocked off and safely get in at-large that doesn't involve several bubble teams in other conferences falling apart while top seeds all hold serve to win their respective conference tournaments.

And of course none of the aforementioned teams are seriously in the hunt for at-large bids. All are easy NIT picks, though. The closest of the bunch to the bubble, Memphis, is favored in any matchup before the final and only a slight dog versus a couple of possible Final opponents. There is not a realistic scenario where the Tigers can lose and sneak in at-large. To get in, they have to win out. But at 3 to 1, they have a good shot to do so, much better than UTEP at 5 to 2 may want to admit. With UAB and Tulsa right behind them, there are several likely suspects contending for the Conference USA title, and no one really stands out.

Here are the Conference USA odds for every team involved:

1. UTEP: 2.7 to 1 (27.3%)
2. Memphis: 3 to 1 (25.0%)
3. UAB: 5.6 to 1
4. Marshall: 10.6 to 1
5. Tulsa: 4.6 to 1
6. Southern Miss: 44.7 to 1
7. Houston: 33 to 1
8. SMU: 144.8 to 1
9. Central Florida: 647.5 to 1
10. East Carolina: 6510.4 to 1
11. Tulane: 2744.5 to 1
12. Rice: 16241.7 to 1

Next: The Mountain West

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big West

Part 21 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

The Big West, like the Big East, took a page from the West Coast Conference and gave their top seeds a double bye (no complaints from UC Santa Barbara's coach as of yet). #1 UC Santa Barbara and #2 Pacific won't have to play until the semifinals of the Big West tourney in Anaheim, while #3 Long Beach State and #4 UC Davis get a free ride into the quarters as the remaining #5 to #8 seeds get to duke it out in the opening round. As expected, the double bye makes the top two seeds an easy favorite, Pacific ahead at 6 to 5 (47.5%) with the Gauchos behind them at 14 to 5 (26.2%).

From there, only #3 Long Beach State has a decent shot at 5 to 1. Everyone else is facing longshot odds to get over, and that's fine. Pacific representing the Big West in the NCAA's yet again is good for the Big West, especially if they can spike an upset and sneak out of the dance with a win. The conference's participation in the Bracket Buster weekend was a big step forward despite a down year for most of the conference (only UCSB and Pacific had winning records overall), and sending a strong representative would be yet another step forward.

Here are the Big West odds for everyone involved.

1. UC Santa Barbara: 2.8 to 1 (26.2%)
2. Pacific: 6 to 5 (47.5%)
3. Long Beach State: 4.9 to 1
4. UC Davis: 34 to 1
5. CS Fullerton: 14.9 to 1
6. Cal Poly SLO: 157.8 to 1
7. UC Irvine: 182.3 to 1
8. CS Northridge: 119 to 1

Next: Conference USA

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big 12 Conference

Part 20 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

With six legit top 20 teams (whether they poll that way or not) and probably seven legit at-large teams, the Big 12 is one of college basketball's best power conferences this fractured season, and you'd expect their 12 team tournament to be a beat-down titanic barnburner of a dogfight once we get to the semis.

Except the Kansas Jayhawks are probably at this point the #1 team in the country (sorry, Syracuse) and are easily the best team in a loaded Big 12, which makes them an even shot (51.2%) to win the Big 12 tournament. If not for them, the above paragraph might be true, but as it stands they're probably playing for 2nd place and hopefully a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can't topple the Jayhawks. Top dark horses include #2 Kansas State (5 to 1), amidst one of their best seasons in a while, and #6 Texas (9 to 1), still one of the best teams in the country but suffered a bit of the dumps in Big 12 Conference play and landed themselves a relatively crappy 6 seed. The funny thing for the Longhorns is that if they can thread the needle through a winnable tournament stretch and make the finals, they can probably notch a 3 seed in the NCAAs... yes, despite being a 6 seed in the Big 12 Tourney.

Everyone else falls back in the pack. #4 Baylor's probably the 3rd best team in the conference but is an 11 to 1 shot to win it. A semifinal loss to superior K-State is likely, and not exactly a scarlet letter on Baylor's resume. They too could warrant a 3 seed in the NCAAs if Texas doesn't. Texas A&M has an argument for the same, but chances that they take a quarterfinal or semifinal loss is fairly likely, and probably drops them back even though the loss would likely come to a superior team (Missouri and Kansas are the suspects). It'd be hard for the committee to give A&M a 3 seed if they take a quarterfinal conference tourney loss, even to a higher seed in A&M. A 4 or 5 is more realistic unless the Aggies thread the needle and at least reach the semis. They are 19 to 1 to win it all so don't hope too hard.

#5 Missouri is a likely 5 seed in the NCAAs as well, and will be hard pressed to down a pesky #12 in Nebraska AND win a tough matchup with Baylor in the quarters. The Tigers are 12 to 1 to win the tourney so don't hold your breath there.

#7 Oklahoma State is on the good side of the bubble, and running a 21-9 record in this tough conference certainly helps. What would also help is holding serve with a 1st round win over #10 Oklahoma and then putting forth an admirable effort in quarterfinal defeat against K-State. One Big 12 Tourney win should be enough for the Cowboys, and scoring the upset to reach the semis certainly will, let alone the 64 to 1 shot that they win the thing. Take comfort, bubble mongers, that Oklahoma State probably isn't ruining anyone's season by winning the Big 12 tourney because they're probably in otherwise anyway.

Here are the Big 12 odds for every team involved:

1. Kansas: Even (51.2%)
2. Kansas State: 5.3 to 1
3. Baylor: 11.2 to 1
4. Texas A&M: 19 to 1
5. Missouri: 12.4 to 1
6. Texas: 9 to 1
7. Oklahoma State: 63.9 to 1
8. Colorado: 612.4 to 1
9. Texas Tech: 593.6 to 1
10. Oklahoma: 1289.6 to 1
11. Iowa State: 580.5 to 1
12. Nebraska: 2001.1 to 1

Next: The Big West

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Big East

Part 19 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Our first power conference tournament is the biggest we've seen yet at 16 teams, with five Top 25 ranked teams and as many as 8-9 teams with a real case for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. Not only is it the biggest and best tournament to date, but it's also arguably the most competitive, and even the favorites will be hard pressed to come out of it alive.

Instead of a conventional 16 team format, the Big East takes a page from the WCC and stepladders their tournament format, giving the top four seeds byes into the quarterfinals while making the 9-16 seeds play each other for the right to face the 5-8 seeds in another qualifying round before the quarters. This protects the top seeds and makes the lower seeds work harder to win the tournament. Take a look at the bracket format here.

Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim complains about receiving a double bye, though that double bye helps make the #1 seeded Orange the favorite at 12 to 5 (29.8%). Right on their heels is #3 West Virginia at around 5 to 2 (26.9%), and a ways back is dark horse #4 Villanova at 6 to 1. Longer shots with the best odds from there are #2 Pittsburgh (11 to 1), #8 Georgetown (14 to 1) and #5 Marquette (18 to 1).

The two teams on the bubble with a real shot of getting in are #7 Notre Dame and #10 Seton Hall. The Irish will have a challenging 2nd round game with either #15 Providence or... Seton Hall. If the Pirates get past Providence, their matchup with Notre Dame could be an elimination game in more ways than one. Obviously, if either team does not get to the quarters, it's probably game over for their at-large tournament chances.

From there, the winner of that early series is definitely an underdog to #2 Pittsburgh in the quarters and wouldn't hurt their chances with a competitive loss... but both have significant chances to win (Notre Dame at 41.1% and Seton Hall at 38.5%), and a win would boost that team's profile enough that as long as their eventual exit isn't embarrassing, said team should have enough pump to their resume to sneak in if they pull a quarterfinal upset. Without it, they could have enough but it depends on how the other bubble teams shake out.

UConn, amidst one of their worst seasons in a couple decades, is 50th in the Sagarin ratings and technically close, but at 17-14 and stumbling down the stretch it's unlikely they can coax at at-large bid from a couple of tourney wins. Rated 58, Cincinnati's been down for a while, and a 16-14 record's probably keeping them out.

The long shots are, as you'd expect, the longest shots we've seen to date, having to pull five upsets against some of the best teams in the country to get a tournament bid. #14 Rutgers faces the impossible at 53922 to 1, but they're not even the longest shot in the tournament. #16 DePaul is 86934 to 1 to win the tournament. To illustrate, let's enlist Funny2.com's help:

Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065
Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524
Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1
Odds of having your identity stolen: 200 to 1
Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1
Odds of being killed sometime in the next year in any sort of transportation accident: 77 to 1
Chance that DePaul's entire roster avoids death via transport in 2010: 83.4%
Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1
Odds of bowling a 300 game: 11,500 to 1
Odds of DePaul winning the 2010 Big East Men's Basketball Tournament: 86,934 to 1

Sad that DePaul's starting point guard has a better chance of having his identity swiped, bowling a 300 game, getting possessed by Satan, dying in a terrible accident or getting burned up with a bottle rocket than he does of winning the Big East Tournament.

Here are the Big East odds for every team involved:

1. Syracuse: 2.4 to 1 (29.8%)
2. Pittsburgh: 10.9 to 1
3. West Virginia: 2.7 to 1 (26.9%)
4. Villanova: 6.1 to 1
5. Marquette: 17.7 to 1
6. Louisville: 22.5 to 1
7. Notre Dame: 48.6 to 1
8. Georgetown: 14.3 to 1
9. South Florida: 513.7 to 1
10. Seton Hall: 118.8 to 1
11. Cincinnati: 186.8 to 1
12. Connecticut: 108.9 to 1
13. St John's: 1113.6 to 1
14. Rutgers: 53921.8 to 1
15. Providence: 753.5 to 1
16. DePaul: 86394 to 1

Next: The Big 12... and a lot more, as Championship Week picks up steam.

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Atlantic 10 (A-10)

Part 18 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

In what's allegedly a down year for top teams in NCAA Division I, the A-10, on the cusp between mid-major and major status, has three teams (Xavier, Temple and Richmond) with legitimate claims for at-large NCAA Tournament bids, while three more (Dayton, Rhode Island, Charlotte) have claims for NIT spots. Most of the rest of the conference can at least put up a good fight against top teams, and the hands-down worst team in the conference, Fordham, did not qualify for the A-10's 12 team conference tournament at fabled Madison Square Garden in NYC.

This is a challenging tournament field, and the top teams, even with first round byes, won't have an easy road to the A-10 title. There is no distinct favorite, simply a multi-tiered horse race in terms of odds.

Top seeds Temple and Xavier are each 11 to 5 shots to win: Temple at 30.8% and Xavier at 31.0%.

Behind then are 6 to 1 shot Richmond at the #3 seed, with #7 Dayton (10 to 1) and #5 Rhode Island (12 to 1) not too far behind. From there, everyone else is a longshot to win, from 28 to 1 #4 Saint Louis all the way to 2700 to 1 #11 UMass.

Even the quarterfinal round is going to prove a tough challenge for the top seeds. #2 Xavier is only a 63.7% favorite to win their opening game should they face #7 Dayton (typically a top seed's first matchup gives them around a 75-85% chance to win), and a likely semifinal matchup with #3 Richmond leaves them with a 65.9% chance to win. However, the Musketeers would be favorites in any possible finals matchup, and if the opponent isn't Temple then they are likely big favorites, no less than 73% to win (and that's if they face Rhode Island). If they can bypass two 2 to 1 shots of losing to reach the final, the A-10 Title and an automatic NCAA Tournament spot (along with possibly a 3 seed) is within easy reach.

Temple has the same odds to win the A-10 as Xavier, but for different reasons. They are easy favorites in their first two rounds, but the potential matchups in the final would cause them trouble. The Owls would actually be underdogs to Xavier (42.3%), while only slight favorites against Richmond (58.6%) or Dayton (56.2%). Even #5 Charlotte has a 3 to 1 shot (24.2%) to steal the title from Temple if the 49ers reach the final.

Richmond is on the high end of the NCAA Tournament bubble, and though some highly ranked teams have clinched automatic bids, which opens up at-large bids at the bottom and improves their chances, they need to be careful not to let their 35-40ish rank drop with a bad tourney loss. Aside from winning the A-10 tourney outright, their best bet is to win their quarterfinal game and at the least take a close loss in the semis... unless in the unlikely event that #10 George Washington is their semifinal opponent in which case the Spiders had better win. Making the final would boost Richmond's rating and profile, but ironically making the final and then losing would similarly damage their at-large chances and likely undo the boost of their semifinal upset because they would be favored over most of their possible opponents. The exception comes if they get to face #1 Temple and can lose that game without getting blown out.

Dayton's a bit too far from the bubble to have a real shot (Sagarin ranks them at 53, and the bubble usually bursts around the low 40's). Upsetting #2 Xavier in the quarters and then winning their semifinal game to reach the final could get them in at-large if they run into #1 Temple in the final and take a competitive loss. But otherwise, their only other hope of the NCAAs is to hit their 10 to 1 ticket and win the A-10 tourney outright.

Here are the A-10 odds for every team involved.

1. Temple: 11 to 5 (30.8%)
2. Xavier: 11 to 5 (31.0%)
3. Richmond: 6 to 1
4. Saint Louis: 27.6 to 1
5. Rhode Island: 11.8 to 1
6. Charlotte: 50.4 to 1
7. Dayton: 9.6 to 1
8. St Bonaventure: 162.1 to 1
9. Duquesne: 298 to 1
10. George Washington: 455 to 1
11. Massachusetts: 2706.4 to 1
12. St Joseph's: 2060.8 to 1

Who would I put money on? Nobody. Given posted future odds (via The Spread) and the odds of winning I posted above, the expected value of every possible pick is negative.

Next: Our first major conference tournament of 2010... The Big East!

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Mid Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

Part 17 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

Morgan State has been the best team in a weak MEAC for quite some time and things are no different as this 11 team tournament kicks off. Morgan State is a 6 to 5 favorite (44.6%) to win, and no one's individually more than a dark horse to catch them.

If anyone's going to knock off Morgan State, the likeliest suspects are #5 Hampton (11 to 2), #3 South Carolina State (13 to 2) and #2 Delaware State (over 8 to 1). North Carolina A&T gets a boost from the tournament's Winston-Salem base being close to Greensboro, but is still almost a 15 to 1 shot as the #9 seed. Everyone else is basically a long shot.

Here are the MEAC odds for every team involved:

1. Morgan State: 6 to 5 (44.6%)
2. Delaware State: 8.4 to 1
3. SC State: 6.4 to 1
4. Norfolk State: 23.7 to 1
5. Hampton: 5.6 to 1
6. UMES: 146.8 to 1
7. Bethune Cookman: 23.3 to 1
8. Howard: 1414.4 to 1
9. NC A&T: 14.6 to 1
10. Florida A&M: 542.8 to 1
11. Coppin State: 164 to 1

Next: We start getting into the big mid-majors and power conferences, as we take a look at The Atlantic 10.

2010 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Probabilities: Mid American Conference (MAC)

Part 16 of a 30 part series. Using Sagarin's Predictor ratings in a prediction formula, I'll weigh the probability of each conference team in each possible tournament matchup and through a Markov chain determine their chances of winning the tournament.

The MAC, once a mid-major hotbed for college basketball, fell on hard times this season and their best team in 2010, Kent State, might make the low rungs of the NIT at-large. The conference as a whole is average in strength compared to all 32 conferences, and their worst teams (Northern Illinois, Toledo) could get beat by many of the weakest conferences' average teams.

That said, Kent State is a mild favorite (34.7%) in a ho-hum but somewhat competitive 12 team MAC tournament field. Central Michigan, probably the 7th best team in the conference, snuck their way to a #2 seed plus a 1st round bye and is still a 19 to 1 shot. #3 Akron (21.6%) is probably the next best shot to win this thing. Don't be terribly shocked if Kent or Akron doesn't win it, though. It's sort of a toss-up as to who would usurp them both, but in this field it's entirely possible one or both teams go down. Likely suspects include #4 Miami-Ohio, #7 Western Michigan and #9 Ohio U.

Toledo has a better chance of finding God in a strip club and convincing him to deliver world peace to mankind than they do of winning this tournament. Getting out of the opening round versus Buffalo (13.5 to 1) would require a bit of divine intervention as well.

Here are the MAC odds for every team involved.

1. Kent State: 1.9 to 1 (34.7%)
2. Central Michigan: 19.1 to 1
3. Akron: 7 to 2 (21.6%)
4. Miami-Ohio: 9 to 1
5. Buffalo: 15.6 to 1
6. Eastern Michigan: 31 to 1
7. Western Michigan: 9.1 to 1
8. Ball State: 228.2 to 1
9. Ohio University: 10.9 to 1
10. Bowling Green: 152.2 to 1
11. Northern Illinois: 440.8 to 1
12. Toledo: 23368.3 to 1

Next: The Mid Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)