Should Phillipe Aumont seriously consider a career in power relief?

The latest Mariners blogosphere firestorm? GM Jack Zduriencik indicates that top pitching prospect Phillipe Aumont was moved to the bullpen to fast-track him to the bigs as a reliever. The Mariners originally moved Aumont to the pen to start 2009 as a 'rest' move to limit his workload. Only during a conversation with Geoff Baker did Zduriencik elaborate on the move.

It turns out the organization met with Aumont roughly a week ago to hash out this plan after top team officials did an evaluation of where things stood with a lot of the minor-league prospects. In Aumont's case, it was decided that his becoming a reliever might be the best thing for him and the organization.

"Nothing is carved in stone," Zduriencik said. "This is an experiment we're doing to see if we can get him to the big leagues quicker."

And, of course, in a role he could be better suited for.

'You look at his size," Zduriencik said, "he's a big, aggressive kid. He was throwing 97 mph at the WBC and we think he has a chance of duplicating that at the big-league level. We think he has a chance to be one of the big bullpen arms in this game."

So... let's say this wasn't just innocuous commentary from the GM in an informal, friendly chat with a beat reporter. Let's say Jack Zduriencik is absolutely serious about converting Phillipe Aumont into a power reliever. What would lead him to take a top starting prospect and put him in the bullpen?

It probably began with the WBC. Phillipe Aumont won a spot on Team Canada, then had his now infamous relief appearance against Team USA, where he loaded the bases before mowing down, in order, David Wright, Kevin Youkilis and Curis Granderson.

This is a 19 year old kid with less than 100 innings of pro experience at any level, and not a single pitch above A ball... putting down three of the top American players at their respective positions. Sure, Granderson's a speedy, powerful hack machine with the patience of a t-ball player and striking him out isn't exactly a rare feat. But Wright is one of the league's best hitters and few in MLB are better than Youkilis at working a count. These are not guys that get easily overwhelmed by any pitcher, and yet Aumont calmly worked out of a bases loaded, no out jam (that he had worked himself into) by systematically mowing all three of them down.

Now, imagine you're the new GM of the Seattle Mariners, and basically all you know about this kid is that the team drafted him with their 1st pick in 2007. You see him mix a 97 mph fastball with a swerving breaking ball and the imposing angle his 6 foot 7 frame provides opposing batters. You see him mow down three of MLB's best American hitters after loading the bases.

You realize how far Aumont is from bringing that brilliance to a rotation. He's a pure project who came out of Quebec with little real instruction and little real experience. This kid has yet to pitch more than a few starts in a row, let alone start for an entire season, and in those starts he took baby step, 70-80 pitch outings that went 3-5 innings. The team, in fact, shut him down in midseason for no other reason than to rest him after what was easily the biggest workload he's ever faced. And that was only half a season of A ball, not even making full 90-100 pitch starts!

You realize that he is a long way from being even a regular pro starter at any level, let alone in MLB, let alone becoming a reliable 30-32 start, 180-200 inning workhorse with 3-4 plus pitches. As the Mariners have found out the hard way time and time again, a lot can happen to a pitching prospect between his first pro pitch and the bigs.

Many don't get there: many get hurt and wash out of baseball well short of the majors. Many wear down from the workload and wash out of baseball. Many get derailed as they struggle with higher AA and AAA level competition and can't adjust... or tinker with their delivery and suddenly lose a consistent feel for their stuff. Phillipe Aumont is 2-3 pitches, the development of the necessary endurance to throw 100-120 pitches every 5 days for six months and a lot of learning away from being an MLB starter, let alone a top MLB starter.

Meanwhile, you're Jack Zduriencik and you see what he can do now over 20-30 pitches. You realize that relievers only need one or two out pitches to succeed in MLB, due to their limited exposure to hitters, coming in fresh and at max energy and the ability to use a pitcher situationally. Aumont mowed down three good MLB hitters, so you know he CAN get MLB hitters out. You know he can work under pressure, because he loaded the bases with nobody out before locking down and getting out of the jam.

You realize that Phillipe Aumont, his imposing size and his blazing stuff are a long, long, long way from helping you as a starter, if he ever can... but he's not too far away from helping you as a reliever.

Yes, you already permaconverted Brandon Morrow to relief. You already have a closer. You drafted a reliever last year. Building a bullpen is easy because decent relievers are a dime a dozen.

But you're not permanently shoehorning Phillipe Aumont. You're taking an existing plan, to start him in the bullpen in 2009, and seeing if he can fast-track to the majors from there. Maybe he doesn't. Maybe over a larger sample, whether 10-20 appearances or two seasons, he struggles as AA and AAA hitters take advantage of his shaky control or his predictable arsenal. Even minor league hitters see swerving sliders and 95-98 mph heaters on a regular enough basis that the decent ones aren't helpless against it.

If Aumont can't break through, then you can say screw fast-tracking him, and work him back into a starting role as long as upside remains. Hell, as we saw the Mariners do with Morrow, even if Aumont reaches the bigs and pitches lights out from the pen... if Aumont learns a 3rd pitch and learns how to pitch wisely, you can develop him as a starter anyway. You can learn a lot from pitching to big league hitters who punish far more of your mistakes than a Cal Leaguer would.

Phillipe Aumont is 20 years old. He's got plenty of time to show you what he can do and can't do. Even if you decide right now to pen him and try to fast-track him to the bigs, as he grows and gives you more information to work with, and as the composition of the team changes (which it usually does on a dramatic scale every season), you can change your plans as needed.

***

Of course, all this assumes Zduriencik was dead serious about Aumont's long term potential role in the pen. Maybe Geoff Baker quoted what was more or less a passing thought in a friendly chat between a GM and a beat reporter the day before Opening Day.

Maybe Jack Zduriencik will actually do what every baseball fan does when the season starts: Wait and see. Aumont will start working out of the pen in AA West Tennessee. What happens next is anyone's guess.

The folly of inflated expectations for the Mariners domestic draft picks

Hardcore Mariners fans are dooming and glooming over two pieces of news:

One, via Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times:

Big news out of camp. Moments ago, I spoke to Brandon Morrow after he'd thrown a bullpen session and he told me (and Shannon Drayer and Tim Booth of AP) that he plans to be a full-time closer from now on. Not just this month, not just this season. For good.

"I feel good about it," he said. "I feel back home."

Wow. This is a major development. As if to hammer that home, the M's just released relief pitcher Tyler Walker. Walker had been one of the guys vying for the closer's job.

Apparently, Morrow made the decision more than a week ago.

Two, also via Geoff Baker:

We've been hinting at this for a while now and today, it became official. Mariners catcher Jeff Clement will start this season in Class AAA. He has some defensive issues to work on, notably, his throws to second base. But also his all-around game-calling. He'll get that chance playing every day down in Tacoma. Should spur some season-ticket sales there.

The Mariners bloggers are practically howling over this. After months of verbal fellatio for the job new GM Jack Zduriencik has done to recompose the Mariners roster, making astute pickups and the like... now they have angrily dismissed these two decisions as grave mistakes, with the classic (and at times hysterical) despair of diehard Mariners fans.

However, consider the following:

- Despite some impressive flashes as a starting pitcher, including a no hitter he took into the 8th inning of his first major league start, Brandon Morrow has yet to show that he can handle a regular starting pitcher's workload over a full season, let alone pitch effectively over a full season. Even among the starts he made, Morrow peppered his outings with walks and stretches of hard-hit frustration, plus he frequently struggled to go deep into ballgames and tended to fade quickly as he tired.

- Brandon Morrow is a diabetic. MLB does have a few diabetics, but diabetics who have successfully managed careers as regular starting pitchers include Jason Johnson... and... well, that's it. Yes, the Mariners drafted Morrow with the #5 pick in 2006 knowing he was a diabetic, and knowing he hadn't pitched more than once a week as a starter in college with Cal. The jury was out on whether Brandon Morrow could pitch every five days in MLB without being a liability in any significant way, such as only being a 5 inning starter (overtaxing the bullpen), or a season long workload eventually causing him health problems....

- ... or, to a more game-related extent, being able to keep his walks down and mix his pitches enough not to consistently fool MLB batters. As a reliever, he only had to throw hard and hit the strike zone enough times to get 3-4 batters out, but a starter has to be able to withstand an entire lineup at least three times, without telegraphing his next pitch or tiring to the point of becoming too hittable.

- Morrow's value as a starter is a question mark as a result. However, we know his value as a reliever: he is a lights out flamethrower that most times is unhittable, and a perfect candidate to close. Morrow and the team may have made this decision to maximize his potential value. Yes, top SPs get paid more than top closers, but you also have to consider expected value. Morrow's chances of becoming a quality starter are at this stage fairly remote for all the reasons stated. However, his chances of being a star closer are far higher.

As Brandon Morrow, do you take a longshot at a 10 out of 10 payout, or do you take a very high chance at a 6-8 out of 10 payout?

As the Seattle Mariners, do you take a longshot at developing a guy at a position where he is a huge question mark, or do you put him in a key position where you know he helps you win tight ballgames right now and likely for years to come? Let's say the M's consider dealing him down the road: do you take the risk of diminishing his current value and perhaps seeing a dim chance at ever maximizing his potential trade value... or do you take his current high value as a reliever and try to maximize that?

- Blogger and fan anger stems not so much from the prospects themselves, as many top prospects never reach their absolute ceiling, but from the fact that these were the team's top domestic draft picks in 2005 and 2006. Clement was picked 3rd overall in 2005 and Morrow was selected 5th overall in 2006. Compounding Morrow's selection is the fact that the Mariners passed on local UW star Tim Lincecum, who would go out to become arguably the top pitcher in the NL for the San Francisco Giants... and on North Carolina product Andrew Miller, who was arguably the top prospect in the 2006 draft but was passed over due to signability concerns.

Jeff Clement still has a long way to go with his defensive mechanics and game calling as a catcher. He has hit fairly well in AAA, though his hot bat has yet to translate to the big league level, and word on the street is that he has yet to make some necessary adjustments as a hitter that the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League has allowed him to overlook. His demotion to AAA isn't necessarily to work on his hitting (though he can certainly learn a few things), but to work on his defense, which presumably he'll get a chance to do full time for the first time since the low minors (he has shared catching duties with Rob Johnson the last couple season in Tacoma).

***

Many fans inflated their expectations for these guys and how the team has handled them, because they were top picks and because top picks such as Evan Longoria, Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Justin Verlander panned out and quickly became top contributors for their teams. There's a bit of fan-related envy of those other top picks, and fans want to see the Mariners top picks materialize into similar stars. Thus, outrage results when personnel moves that otherwise may be for the best indicate that they won't become those stars.

Bill Bavasi and his top assistants made a lot of personnel mistakes. But scouting director Bob Fontaine worked magic in the middle rounds to draft several potentially useful parts, plus international scouting director Bob Engle has brought in hordes of Latin American talent such as Felix Hernandez, Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt (well, before he got lazy) and many other top prospects currently working their way up the system.

The Bavasi era is over, and the healthy thing to do would be to make peace with the fact that some of the team's previous personnel moves and draft picks just aren't going to pan out as hoped. But Mariners fans were bred on misanthropy, with 22 losing seasons in 32 years, and since misanthropy comes most comfortably, the reaction is understandable.

But nothing has been destroyed. Jack Zduriencik has made many smart decisions in rebuilding this team, and the new front office didn't suddenly turn stupid before they made these moves.

Jeff Clement could still become a regular catcher, or a contributor at a different position. He could be traded for contributing talent. Brandon Morrow can be a lights out closer, and even if you say he has no future here, many teams still place significant value in a 98 mph flamethrower that can mow down hitters in the 9th and could offer the Mariners contributing talent. And that belies the point that, once his forearm strain heals, Brandon Morrow can help the Mariners right now. As a starter, there was doubt he could have helped the team in that role at all over the long term.

You may not like these two personnel moves, but they are neither inherently horrible moves given the context, nor have they ruined any serious long term prospects for the team's future. The team is on the same track to rebuilding for the future as they have always been... and as they are currently composed, given the AL West's weakness they could even contend this season with a little good fortune. Relax.