Super Bowl XLIV Preview: Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints

Super Bowl XLIV (Miami, FL)
Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints
Favorite: Saints (52.5%)

This was one of the best Super Bowl matchups we could get given the teams, not as much because each team was the best of their respective conferences, but because both teams have high-powered passing games and suspect pass defenses, which plays to both teams' offensive strengths. To call the Saints the 'favorite' is a bit of the misnomer: It's more like they have a 53-47 edge in what's actually a close matchup.



Colts Offense (with grade):

Points Per Drive: 2.43 (B+)
Drive Success Rate: .748 (A+)
Turnovers per: .140 (C)

The Colts' biggest issue, aside from their token running game, is that they are somewhat prone to turnovers and face a Saints defense that generates a strong number of turnovers. Together with somewhat slippery game balls and one of Brett Favre's dumbest throws ever, they helped generate several turnovers in their NFC title win over the Vikings.

Offense Line Run Blocking: D+
Left End: F
LT: C
Interior: B-
RT: C
Right End: C
Pass Protection: A+

Colts Backfield:

QB: Peyton Manning: A+
RB: Joseph Addai: B- (Receiving: B)
RB: Mike Hart: D
RB: Donald Brown: D (Receiving: A)

Colts Receivers:

WR: Reggie Wayne: B
WR: Austin Collie: B
WR: Pierre Garcon: C
WR: Hank Baskett: F
TE: Dallas Clark: A
TE: Tom Santi: B
TE: Jacob Tamme: F


It's a good thing Peyton Manning is arguably one of the greatest QBs ever to play in the NFL and that he has good receivers, because his running game does not play a huge factor in the Colts offense. Whether it's because of spotty run blocking or lacking abilities on the part of non-Joseph Addai tailbacks, the Colts can't count on much from the backfield on the ground.

As for the passing game, the Saints can match up well with Reggie Wayne, and might be able to somewhat contain Dallas Clark, but they are average overwise, which should open doors for Austin Collie.

One other key factor: The game is outdoors, and both teams are dome teams. Manning over his career has been a good QB whether at home or on the road, though Manning does have more picks on the road (101) than at home (80). However, this year he posted better numbers on the road (112.6 rating) than at home (89.9). And one more factor in Manning's favor: He has 4 career regular season games vs the Saints, and has done well against them: 75 of 115, 1173 yards, 11 TD, 4 INT, 116.3 rating. They can pick him (4 picks in 4 games), but he can shred them like he can anyone else.

Once the wind and elements comes into play, however, it's always going to be more difficult to throw the football outdoors than inside, no matter what. This never minds the condition of a grass field, though by all accounts the turf at Miami's Landshark Stadium was consistently firm and held up well during last week's Pro Bowl.

Colts defense (Base 4-3):

Overall: C (Momentum Weighted*: C+)
Points per Drive: 1.64 (C)
Drive Success Rate: .688 (C-)
Turnovers per Drive: .144 (C)

* - Weighed to emphasize late season performances over early season performances

Run Defense: C
vs left end sweeps: C
Right DE: D-
Interior run defense: C
Left DE: D
vs right end sweeps: F

Pass Defense: C
Defensive line vs rush: D-
Pass rush: C
vs #1 WR: C
vs #2 WR: D+
vs Other WR: C
vs TE: C
vs RB: C-

Never mind the injury to Dwight Freeney: The Colts defensive unit in itself is fairly overrated. Freeney and Robert Mathis are the only threats in an average pass rush. As run defenders they get run over. The run defense, beyond the raw stats, is actually fairly average per play, and weak when opponents run off-tackle. The pass defense is average at best, and frequently beatable. Expect big games from Drew Brees, Robert Meachem, Pierre Thomas and of course the emerging Reggie Bush.

Colts Special Teams:

Kicker: C (Kickoffs: C)
Kick returns: C
Punting: C+
Punt returns: D+

******



Saints offense:

Points Per Drive: 2.56 (A)
Drive Success Rate: .742 (A-)
Turnovers per: .148 (C)

Like the Colts, the Saints offense has a high powered offense that doesn't protect the ball as well as it shouldn. Unlike the Saints, however, the Colts aren't especially hawkish for the ball, and chances of the Colts generating turnovers aren't as likely.

Offense Line Run Blocking: A
Left End: C-
LT: C
Interior: A
RT: B+
Right End: A-
Pass Protection: B+

Saints Backfield:

QB: Drew Brees: A+ (Rushing: A+)
RB: Pierre Thomas: A (Receiving: A-)
RB: Mike Bell: C
RB: Reggie Bush: A (Receiving: C)

Saints Receivers:

WR: Marques Colston: A
WR: Robert Meachem: A+ (Rushing: A+)
WR: Devery Henderson: B
WR: Lance Moore: A
TE: Jeremy Shockey: A
TE: David Thomas: B-

Also unlike the Colts, the Saints have a good running game, and Freeney or not, expect the Colts to get run over frequently. Of course, the Saints true offensive strength is their passing game, and the Colts defense gives little indication that they'll be able to slow down, let alone stop the Saints' impressive passing game.

Saints Defense (Base 4-3):

Overall: C (Momentum Weighted*: D+)
Points per drive: 1.71 (C)
Drive success rate: .670 (C)
Turnovers per drive: .187 (A-)

* - Weighed to emphasize late season performances over early season performances

Run Defense: D-
vs left end sweeps: D-
Right DE: F
Interior run defense: C
Left DE: C
vs right end sweeps: A+

Pass Defense: C+
Defensive line vs rush: C-
Pass rush: C
vs #1 WR: A
vs #2 WR: C-
vs Other WR: C
vs TE: B
vs RB: C

Beyond their ballhawking tendencies, the Saints defense isn't particularly strong. They defend the #1 receiver and tight end well but are just average in covering anyone else. Their run defense isn't too good, for some reason prone to getting blown up on left-side outside sweeps while impressive in shutting down sweeps to the (right handed) QB's throwing side. Their left side does an alright job against the run but the right side gets owned too often.

Fortunately for the Saints, the Colts aren't a big running team and probably won't take advantage of the holes up front too often. But Peyton Manning is going to pick apart the Saints secondary, so long as he continues his excellent job of reading the coverage and doesn't walk into a blindside pick or two.

Saints Special Teams:

Kicking: D- (Kickoffs: C)
Kick returns: B
Punting: D
Punt returns: D

Whatever edge a good kick return game would get the Saints is blown by a poor kicking game that's been disguised all season by the Saints' prolific offense and winning ways. This will become a much more pronounced weakness in the outdoor conditions, especially if the game is at all close and field position plus field goals become a key issue.

******

So do the Saints really have the edge?

Only in the slightest sense of having a few more advantages than the Colts have. But otherwise, both teams are similarly strong and possess similar weaknesses. This is going to be a high scoring game, and the only way you could convince me to put money on this game is to take the over on the over/under line regardless of the number. But otherwise, I'd feel it foolish to put money on either team, even with the Saints getting +4 on the point spread from Vegas as the nominal underdog. Any dramatic swings during the game could turn the tide completely.

It should be a fun Super Bowl, so enjoy!

2010 NFC Championship Preview: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Favorite: Saints (61.0%)

Minnesota cranked a shockingly rattled Cowboys team in Minnesota last week, indicative of their season: Easy wins against teams that are either bad or good teams that are for whatever reason out of their element and don't show up. But they're going into the hostile Superdome in New Orleans this week against a Saints team that does everything they like to do, and arguably better than they do.

The Saints did lose their last three regular season games but don't be fooled: A la the Colts, they essentially folded their tent in Week 15 once they reached 13-0 and were assured of the #1 seed, and gave the backups more playing time. As they showed in last week's 45-14 romp over Arizona, they are just fine, and just too tough to stop on offense when they're trying.

As always, all stats are courtesy of Football Outsiders. All their advanced stats give you a closer look at the marginal utility of all teams and players over (or under) their counterparts.



Vikings Offense (with grade):

Points Per Drive: 2.44 (A-)
Drive Success Rate: .724 (B)
Turnovers per: .092 (A)

Offense Line Run Blocking: C
Left End: C-
LT: B
Interior: C
RT: D
Right End: C-
Pass Protection: C

Vikings backfield:

QB: Brett Favre: A+
QB: Tavaris Jackson: A
RB: Adrian Peterson: C (Receiving: B)
RB: Chester Taylor: F (Receiving: B)

If it seems Adrian Peterson's slid a bit this season, well... he has, and his line hasn't been all that strong either. Go figure the team's best success has been running near the left tackle, right in the vicinity of all pro LG Steve Hutchinson.

But while they've ground out some yards here, a big run there, the tailbacks haven't been very efficient. Brett Favre leaned on the ground game early in the season, but go figure his passing numbers took off as the season wore on. They had to, because he had to do more with the passing game as the season progressed. Good thing he had....

Vikings receivers:

WR: Sidney Rice: A+ (Rushing: A)
WR: Percy Harvin: B
WR: Bernard Berrian: C
WR: Greg Lewis: C+
TE: Visanthe Shaincoe: A
TE: Jimmy Kleinsasser: I thought you did this for a living

Again, Percy Harvin is good enough to be split to one of the ends instead of the 3rd wideout in a 3-wideout set, though maybe the reason he makes so many plays is because teams blanket Rice, cover Berrian, put a good linebacker on Shaincoe and Harvin's often left against safeties and nickel backs.
However, the bad news is that Harvin is questionable for the title game after spending the week with migraines. He's improved and expects to play but there's no telling what he can give the Vikes on Sunday after little practice. The Saints are also fairly effective in containing opposing tight ends, so don't expect Visanthe Shaincoe and his strained quad to get open too often.

The good news is that, despite Rice facing better cover corners this week, Bernard Berrian may see more open space on the other side. The vanquished Cowboys were more consistent in covering a team's top two receivers than the Saints were. While the Saints do a fine job of containing opponents' #1 receivers, they don't do as good a job against the #2 or slot receivers. Sidney Rice did have a great game against good cover corners, but Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter will definitely key on him and give him a harder time. Rice can still ring up 4-6 catches, and he is indoors on a rug despite being on the road so he'll have every bit the speed he has at home. Don't count him out: Just don't expect a repeat of last week's dominance.

However, unlike the mediocre Cowboys pass defense, the Saints can contain some of the Vikings' pass weapons, which puts a greater onus on Brett Favre and his running game to make plays on their own.

Vikings defense (Base 4-3):

Overall: C (Momentum Weighted*: C+)
Points per drive: 1.52 (B-)
Drive success rate: .636 (A-)
Turnovers per drive: .118 (D+)

* - Weighed to emphasize late season performances over early season performances

Run Defense: A
vs left end sweeps: D+
Right DE: B-
Interior run defense: B
Left DE: B-
vs right end sweeps: A

Pass Defense: D
Defensive line vs rush: B
Pass rush: B+
vs #1 WR: D
vs #2 WR: B
vs Other WR: D
vs TE: D
vs RB: C-

There's a big problem looming, and it's not the crappy pass defense: Three of the Vikings' starting defensive linemen, Kevin and Pat Williams plus Ray Edwards, are all questionable with various injuries. Yes, players play hurt in the NFL all the time, but if you're questionable, your injury's bad enough to hamper strength and movement. Even if any or all of the above play, the usually great defensive line is going to get pushed around.

This not only will compromise the pass rush (and likely bottle up Jared Allen if he's the only healthy threat the Saints have to worry about), but the strong run defense as well. The linebacking for the Vikes hasn't been the same either since EJ Henderson's leg snapped like a twig a month ago. If the Saints decide to change it up and go with Pierre Thomas between the tackles, we may be surprised at how easily the Saints can stick their blocks and give Thomas enough space to get to the 2nd level of the front seven.

On top of that, the Vikings aren't particularly good at containing a team's #1 receiver, opting instead to balance their coverage and force that top receiver to make plays, and TBH the Vikes do give up an uncanny number of big plays in the secondary. They don't cover secondary receivers well, and the Saints love to use three wideout sets just like the Vikes do. Don't be surprised if some Saints receiver you don't hear much about, like Robert Meachem or Lance Moore, has a massive game. Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey have a great chance at big numbers as well. Drew Brees shredded the Cards while last week's game was competitive, and chances are likely he'll shred the Vikings too.

Vikings Special Teams:

Kicking: B (Kickoffs: D)
Kick returns: A+
Punting: C
Punt returns: C+

Percy Harvin is typically the key to the return game, but his injury compromises that return game, unless infrequently used Darius Reynaud (4 decent but mostly unspectacular returns all season) finds a crease or two on returns. The Vikes did not return a single kick in their 34-3 romp over Dallas last week.

******



Saints offense:

Points Per Drive: 2.56 (A)
Drive Success Rate: .742 (A-)
Turnovers per: .148 (C)

Offense Line Run Blocking: A
Left End: C-
LT: C
Interior: A
RT: B+
Right End: A-
Pass Protection: B+

Saints Backfield:

QB: Drew Brees: A+ (Rushing: A+)
RB: Pierre Thomas: A (Receiving: A-)
RB: Mike Bell: C
RB: Reggie Bush: A (Receiving: C)

Saints Receivers:

WR: Marques Colston: A
WR: Robert Meachem: A+ (Rushing: A+)
WR: Devery Henderson: B
WR: Lance Moore: A
TE: Jeremy Shockey: A
TE: David Thomas: B-

Sure, the Cards didn't have the defense to pose much of a challenge last week, but the Saints have a ton of offensive weapons. Drew Brees is one of the top 3-4 QBs in the game today. Pierre Thomas is a workhorse relatively fresh since he doesn't have to carry a load... because fellow backfielder Reggie Bush is a freakish playmaker, and Brees has a full arsenal in the passing game: A rotation of Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem (who is also hell on reverses and end arounds) and Lance Moore, as well as top-shelf receiving tight end Jeremy Shockey. No wonder nobody in the NFL has been able to contain this offense. The crappy Vikings secondary sure won't.

Saints Defense (Base 4-3):

Overall: C (Momentum Weighted*: D+)
Points per drive: 1.71 (C)
Drive success rate: .670 (C)
Turnovers per drive: .187 (A-)

* - Weighed to emphasize late season performances over early season performances

Run Defense: D-
vs left end sweeps: D-
Right DE: F
Interior run defense: C
Left DE: C
vs right end sweeps: A+

Pass Defense: C+
Defensive line vs rush: C-
Pass rush: C
vs #1 WR: A
vs #2 WR: C-
vs Other WR: C
vs TE: B
vs RB: C

One bad sign for the Vikes is that, with the exception of Pittsburgh, all the other teams that beat the Vikes this season sported a 4-3 defensive front. And the Steelers' linebackers are fairly big and tough, i.e. in some ways resemble D-linemen in size and strength. 4-3 defenses tend to generate a greater pass rush and give the O-line a tougher time in run blocking, though the weakness comes in pass defense (if the pass rush doesn't get to the QB) and when the rushers get past the trench as there are fewer linebackers to cover the 2nd level. Even if the line doesn't ring up sacks, consistently putting pressure on the QB is usually enough to disrupt the passing game.

Brett Favre's line in his losses:

4 games, 106 for 162 (65.4%, 40.5 attempts per), 1154 yards (228.5 per), 4 TD, 4 INT, 14 sacks (3.5 per)

In 12 wins: 257 for 369 (69.6%, 31 attempts per), 3048 yards (254 per), 29 TD, 3 INT, 24 sacks (2.0 per)

Obviously, QB turnovers and losses tend to go hand in hand. Sacks too, to some extent, and QBs tend to throw more in losses, as when the team falls behind they abandon the running game and throw the football. Note that Brett Favre only threw more than 31 attempts in one of Minnesota's wins: 48 times in Minnesota's 36-10 victory over Chicago on November 29, and Favre largely took over in that game because the Bears have a poor secondary and were playing a soft zone that contained their running game. It made sense to throw every down in that situation. However, with the book out on Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and Favre's other weapons, opponents finally keyed on Favre's receivers and it's unlikely the Vikings get a window like that again.

As the Cards found out the hard way, the Saints are a good ballhawking team and can generate turnovers. Favre has gotten much better at avoiding turnovers, but on a bad day he's still good for a couple picks. Add in Adrian Peterson's penchant for the big fumble, and this could get away if the Saints get three turnovers and capitalize on at least a couple of them. The Vikings don't generate as many turnovers and generally have to rely on avoiding those mistakes, while hoping the other team does something stupid, to win the turnover battle.

Saints Special Teams:

Kicking: D- (Kickoffs: C)
Kick returns: B
Punting: D
Punt returns: D

Rarely does the Saints' fate come down to their below average kicking game. However, the kick return game could chew up a few big returns against a below average kick coverage unit.

******

So who has the edge?

Neither team has much of a pass defense, and with the Vikings' pass rushers hurting, 800+ yards total passing is not out of the question. For the Vikes, it will come down to whether they can avoid turnovers and keep pace on offense. The Saints are going to hold serve on offense. Getting Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor going and being able to kill the clock and keep that Saints offense off the field will certainly help the Vikings. However, the Vikings can't afford to make more than one big mistake, or Drew Brees and Co will make sure this game gets away from the Vikes fairly quickly. Despite their best efforts, the Vikes are in trouble given the Saints defense's nose for the football and, more specifically, taking it away from you.

That said, the Vikings shouldn't fold vs the Saints the way the Cards did last week should they fall behind. They've got enough talent, and the Saints have enough defensive holes, to make a thing or three happen and stay in this game if things go wrong for them. One common denominator in the Vikings' losses, aside from all coming on the road, is that they came against teams with tough defensive fronts. The Saints, for whatever rep their defense may or may not have, aren't particularly tough up front despite a 4-3 front and can be pushed back. That lack of magic formula is good news for the Vikes, even if they are on the road in arguably the most hostile indoor stadium in the NFL.

My friends have money on the Vikes to make the Super Bowl, so that's who I'm rooting for. However, history and the numbers indicate that Minnesota's facing an uphill battle under sea level in the Superdome.

2010 NFL Divisional Playoff Preview, Part 1: Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
Favorite: Saints (80.8%)

Last week the Cards teamed with the Packers to obliterate NFL postseason records before a lucky break on defense helped them seal the deal on a 51-45 overtime victory. Discouraging to indications that the Cards can repeat this Saturday with a win vs the Saints was that, despite predictably getting to Aaron Rodgers for five sacks, an opening-play pick and the closing fumble and TD, the defense allowed him to torch their secondary for 422 yards while the Packers running game gained another 90 despite minimal use (20 total rushes, including three Rodgers scrambles, vs 47 pass plays).

Granted, the Packers have the 4th best offense in the NFL per Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, so yeah they were very likely to have the day they had last week... but the forthcoming Saints have the #2 offense in DVOA, and an offense much more well known for torching defenses, especially in the Superdome where this game will take place. They will likely repeat the feat and torch the Cards for big points... plus Drew Brees doesn't hold the ball like Rodgers does (in fact, the Saints have allowed the 4th fewest adjusted sacks in the NFL), so it's not likely the Cards can manage five sacks or even a turnover.

On the flip side, that the Cards rang up 531 yards of their own against the 2nd best defense in the NFL bodes well given the Saints' D is a much more mediocre 14th. However, the Cards have consistency issues and were clearly clicking on offense while playing in their own domed stadium. Now they're going into a hostile road dome where the crowd's not going to let Kurt Warner call plays without ear-splitting noise. Do the Cards come out on fire again, on the road, against the prohibitive favorite to get to the Super Bowl, which BTW has a prolific offense of their own? Highly doubtful. Could happen (remember that the Cards did well on the road this season), but doubtful.

Team Efficiency (Using FO's Weighted Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)... as of the end of the regular season):

Cardinals: 10.5% (13th)... Offense DVOA: 8.8% (13th)... Defense: -0.1% (12th)... Special: 1.6% (11th)
Saints: 23.4% (6th)... Offense DVOA: 27.6% (2nd)... Defense: 1.3% (14th)... Special: -2.8% (28th)



Cardinals Offense (with grade):

Points Per Drive: 1.84 (C)
Drive Success Rate: .679 (C)
Turnovers per: .176 (F)

Offense Line Run Blocking: C
Left End: A
LT: C
Interior: C-
RT: C+
Right End: C-
Pass Protection: Conditional B

As mentioned last week, Arizona gets a conditional B because Kurt Warner has an amazingly quick release, which offsets any shortcomings in the pass protection. If the run blocking is any indication, the line is probably more like a Grade C pocket than a Grade B.

The good news is that, like the Packers, the Saints are an average-ish pass rushing team, and Warner only got sacked once in last week's tilt. And per adjusted line yards, the Saints are not as good against the run as the Packers are... not even close. The Cards still managed 156 yards on the ground last week. They could be good for that and more vs the Saints, especially if they get a two score lead and Ken Whisenhunt (wisely) elects to work the clock, keep the ball away from that prolific Saints offense and protect the ball on subsequent drives.

Cardinals backfield:

QB: Kurt Warner: B+ (Religious Obsession: A++++)
RB: Beanie Wells: C (Receiving: A)
RB: Tim Hightower: D+ (Receiving: B- ... Touchdown Vulturing: A)

Beanie looked more like a B vs the Packers, though Warner's propensity for torching that secondary may have set up many of those yards in making every subsequent run play a glorified draw play. That said, the rushers themselves aren't incredible and will serve more to help the Cards grind the clock and convert the occasional short yardage situation than move the football.

Warner, of course, still turns to his Arena Football roots, firing quickly and often to take what he can get while he has openings. And the Saints are going to give him plenty on defense.

Cardinals receivers:

WR: Larry Fitzgerald: B
WR: Steve Breaston: B
WR: Anquan Boldin: C
WR: Early Doucet: B
WR: Jerheme Urban: D
TE: Ben Patrick: A
TE: Anthony Becht: D
TE: Stephen Spach: F

Too many weapons, even though some of them suck and aren't good for more than change-of-pace targets. But there's no way the Saints can keep them all covered: They can lock down whoever they decide is the #1 receiver, but that's essentially it. One of the B's will go off for 100+ yards. Last week it was Early Doucet. Who will it be this week?

Do the Saints believe the hype and decide the lockdown target is Doucet, opening up Fitzgerald? Does Fitz get the bullseye, allowing Doucet go off again and start building a playoff legend? Do the Saints lock Fitzgerald, while they get a couple guys on Doucet... and open the door for Steve Breaston to have a massive game? Do all three get bumped and run to death, opening the door for a career game from TE Ben Patrick? Does Tim Hightower channel Larry Centers out of the backfield and go off on a 20 catch, 150 yard game? Who knows, but someone in that receiving corps will have a massive game in the Superdome.

Cardinals defense (Base 3-4):

Overall: C (Momentum Weighted*: C)
Points per drive: 1.56 (C+)
Drive success rate: .647 (B)
Turnovers per drive: .140 (C)

* - Weighed to emphasize late season performances over early season performances

Run Defense: B-
vs left end sweeps: C
Right DE: C
Interior run defense: C
Left DE: A-
vs right end sweeps: C

One thing the Cards can do with some consistency is stop the run, so don't expect a massive game from Pierre Thomas or Reggie Bush... though the Saints are a great run blocking team so it could happen. The decent run defense, however, is one reason Aaron Rodgers got the ball much of the time and got to go crazy. Drew Brees will likely repeat the effort and the Saints will likely just gun it against the Cards defense.

Pass Defense: B
Defensive line vs rush: C+
Pass rush: C+
vs #1 WR: D
vs #2 WR: A+
vs Other WR: B
vs TE: C
vs RB: C

Aaron Rodgers and the top shelf Packers offense shredded the Cards secondary, and there's little doubt the Saints can do the same. The Cards put up good numbers vs teams' secondary options because they tend to leave the #1 on an island and allow him to go off. Indeed, Greg Jennings blew past 100 yards on 8 catches, and Marques Colston is even more dangerous. Defending the tight end is also not their strong suit, and Jermichael Finley is peanuts as a TE compared to Jeremy Shockey. The Cards also don't defend backfield receivers all that great, and Reggie Bush is as dangerous from the backfield as tailbacks get. Drew Brees could easily throw for 500 yards if this game remains competitive into the 2nd half.

Cardinals Special Teams:

Kicker: C+ (Kickoffs: C)
Kick returns: C
Punting: A-
Punt returns: D+

It didn't come down to the kicking game, obviously, vs the Pack, but this game will definitely be a tougher matchup for the Cards. If the offense doesn't click this week, Ben Graham's coffin-corner ability as a punter is going to be very, very important, as forcing repeated 90 yard drives may be the Cards' only chance in hell of stopping the Saints offense. At least Neil Rackers gets to kick in a dome again.



Saints offense:

Points Per Drive: 2.56 (A)
Drive Success Rate: .742 (A-)
Turnovers per: .148 (C)

Offense Line Run Blocking: A
Left End: C-
LT: C
Interior: A
RT: B+
Right End: A-
Pass Protection: B+

This is pretty much the polar opposite of the situation the Cards front seven had with the Packers, with a great offensive line, a fast backfield and a fire-away QB who has no problem getting the ball away quickly. Don't expect five sacks. In fact, the Cards are in big trouble because their one strength is getting pressure on the QB and the Saints front line and offensive style pretty much makes that close to impossible.

The Cards do have some hope in that their strength vs the run is along left DE, which happens to be one of the Saints' stronger points, so neutralizing right off-tackle runs could give them a chance to contain the backfield. That still leaves Brees, his excellent pass protection and his host of passing weapons, though.

Saints Backfield:

QB: Drew Brees: A+ (Rushing: A+)
RB: Pierre Thomas: A (Receiving: A-)
RB: Mike Bell: C
RB: Reggie Bush: A (Receiving: C)

Okay, that backfield is ridiculous. If they get traction against the Cards' front seven and the Cards aren't firing at 110% capacity like last week, this is over in one and a half quarters.

Saints Receivers:

WR: Marques Colston: A
WR: Robert Meachem: A+ (Rushing: A+)
WR: Devery Henderson: B
WR: Lance Moore: A
TE: Jeremy Shockey: A
TE: David Thomas: B-

The only reason I now feel wrong about the Drew Brees 500 yard estimate as I type this is that I now see that estimate might have been a bit conservative.

Saints Defense (Base 4-3):

Overall: C (Momentum Weighted*: D+)
Points per drive: 1.71 (C)
Drive success rate: .670 (C)
Turnovers per drive: .187 (A-)

* - Weighed to emphasize late season performances over early season performances

Run Defense: D-
vs left end sweeps: D-
Right DE: F
Interior run defense: C
Left DE: C
vs right end sweeps: A+

Yeah, I'm not sure what's up with the right side of the Saints' defensive line, but they can be run over. Again, the Cards best hope is to strike quick, get a lead, and then try to kill the clock by running it down their throats... which can be done against this mediocre run defense.

The Saints, however, have had better fortune than most with turnovers, subject as always to variance but there could be a ballhawking mentality to them. If the backers can step in front of a couple of Kurt Warner bullets or a blitzer can get to him and knock the ball from his smallish hands, getting a two TD lead on the Saints may be far easier said than done. In fact, a timely turnover or three could help put this game on ice quickly.

Pass Defense: C+
Defensive line vs rush: C-
Pass rush: C
vs #1 WR: A
vs #2 WR: C-
vs Other WR: C
vs TE: B
vs RB: C

The Saints can defend the strong side well, so while I boasted the possibility Ben Patrick likely won't blow up on the Saints for a big game. But any of the receivers could unload for big yards, possibly multiple receivers. The Saints do a fine job of locking down a key target, but they can be exploited by a team with several receiving weapons, as the Cards have.

Saints Special Teams:

Kicking: D- (Kickoffs: C)
Kick returns: B
Punting: D
Punt returns: D

Yeah, well, it's a good thing the Saints score a crapton of points and their crappy special teams don't matter.

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So who has the edge?

I haven't made it much of a secret, but the Cards aren't going to see many of the advantages they had with the Pack, and that game was awfully close. The Saints have just as much firepower on offense, in fact way more, and the Cards are now in a hostile dome against a ballhawking defense, with the added caveat that Kurt Warner is as prone to big turnover games as he is to big passing games.

Unless the Cards successfully exploit the Saints defense without any miscues without missing a beat from last week's explosion, the Saints are probably going to humble the Cards on Saturday, ensuring we have a new NFC Champion in 2010.