Dead Cat's Bounce

5/18 Mariners Minor League Recap

2011-05-19T09:08:00.000-07:00

Well, I had written this for the Mariner Central website, as Lonnie had asked me to cover his beat for the week, but I didn't realize until finished that http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifhe had in fact written the recap for this night! Whoops! Not wanting the work to go to waste, I decided to go ahead and post it here. To see more of the same from Lonnie or myself, check out Mariner Central.

Don't expect regular posts on this subject. I just didn't want this to go to waste.

******

A: Clinton 4, Burlington 3
CLI: 11-29... BUR: 28-10

Edlando Seco: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, wild pitch
Nathan Reed: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Jandy Sena: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, balk
Tyler Burgoon: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Wind: 12 mph in from CF

Kevin Rivers: 1-4, double, RBI, walk, K
Mickey Wiswall: 1-3, double, RBI
Jake Schlander: 1-4, 2 run HR, 2 K

A bullpen relay led by Edlando Seco's first start of the season kept the Midwest League's best team in check, holding them to three runs while managing four runs against the league's best pitching and defense (3.03 runs/game).

Burlington's Tyler Vail, who had four walks on the season coming into this game, walked four batters in his 4.1 innings including two in the first. Bees manager Aaron Nieckula suspected foul umpiring and got himself tossed in the 2nd after Jake Schlander's 2 run bomb made it 3-0 (Schlander BTW really needed that after opening his Clinton tenure with a 2 for 16 skid following demotion from High Desert).

The Bees did claw their way back in against Seco and Nathan Reed to tie it at 3 in the 6th. But Clinton got a break on a leadoff error in the 7th to put Tim Morris aboard. After Morris stole a base and took 3rd on a bad pickoff throw, Mickey Wiswall sac flied him in to give Clinton the 4-3 lead, which Jandy Sena and closer Tyler Burgoon did not relinquish.

Morris now leads the Lumber Kings with 7 stolen bags, while Wiswall's sac fly gives him a team-leading 16 RBI.

A+: High Desert 10, Lancaster 8
Mavs: 18-22... Jethawks: 17-23

Anthony Fernandez: 4.0 IP, 11 H, (6 R), 1 BB, 4 K
Jason Markovitz: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
Willy Kesler: 3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Wind: 30 mph L to R

Nick Franklin: 1-6, double, 2 K
Matthew Cerrione: 2-5, R, 2 K
Vincent Catricala: 2-5, solo HR, 2 R
Dennis Raben: 2-3, solo HR, solo HR, sac fly, walk, K
Mario Martinez: 2-5, triple, R, RBI, K
Denny Almonte: 2-5, 2 run HR, 2 K
Gabriel Noriega: 2-5, triple, RBI, K

The gusting wind likely turned damn near everything hit to RF a home run. The Mavs didn't help themselves with a 1st inning Vinnie Catricala error: The wind likely was a factor in screwing up the routine 1-3 putout that led instead to three Lancaster runs.

The wind was probably a factor all around. The Jethawks had a passed ball in the 1st themselves, and James Jones scored in the 2nd on a wild pitch. Jones himself had a heck of a time in RF, as several flyballs dropped around him, including two that helped score a Lancaster run to make it 4-1.

But the Mavs took advantage of the conditions in the 3rd, squeezing out four hits in five plate appearances, including Mario Martinez's swirling RBI triple to LF, followed by Denny Almonte riding the wind to a two run bomb to ultimately produce a 5-4 lead. But Lancaster themselves responded in the bottom 3rd as they and the wind further abused James Jones in RF with a two run triple to make it 6-5 Jethawks.

Miraculously (given these conditions) in the 4th, both teams got runners on 2nd and 3rd, and neither scored.

Dennis FREAKING Raben put a stop to that by leading off the 5th with a solo bomb to tie the ballgame at 5. The wind helped out on two throwing errors by Lancaster, James Jones stole another base, and Gabriel Noriega's triple all contributed to chasing Lancaster starter Bobby Doran as the Mavs took a 8-6 lead.

But having chased beleaguered Mavs starter Anthony Fernandez, Lancaster themselves responded in the bottom 5th off Jason Markovitz with three singles, a walk and a sac fly to tie the ballgame at 8.

But back to back jacks in the 6th by Catricala and Raben made it 10-8... and the scoring magically stopped. Even after loading the bases in that frame the Mavs did not get another run across. Willy Kesler stepped in during the 6th did not allow another airborne ball in play until the 9th inning, and even then Kesler went 1-2-3 as the Mavs held on.

AA: Jackson 6, Huntsville 4
JG's: 23-15... HUN: 19-20

Taylor Stanton: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Stephen Penney: 0.1 IP, 2 H, (3 R), 1 BB, 1 K
Edward Paredes: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Josh Fields: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Wind: 3 mph with varied direction

Carols Triunfel: 2-4, RBI
Kuo Hui Lo: 2-3, double, 3 run HR, 2 R, walk, K
rest of Generals: 3-21, 6 walks, 4 K

You know... I don't miss the moniker "West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx" at all. Yeah, the JG's redubbed themselves to celebrate a nostalgic anniversary, but I say they ought to keep the revised name. I even like the old school logo.

Whatever Taylor Stanton's doing, he ought to keep doing it. The M's wisely ignored his artificially inflated 8.20 ERA from High Desert and have seen him handle his first two AA starts just fine. Taylor followed an abbreviated 4.2 inning start with 6 shutout innings as the Generals built a 3-0 lead.

But leave it to the bullpen to hit the reset button in the 7th. Stephen Penney walked the leadoff batter and let Huntsville's Chuck Caufield go yard to make it 3-2. An unfortunate pair of groundballs (one of which led to Carlos Triunfel's 11th error of the season) put two men aboard before Penney got the hook for recently demoted Edward Paredes, and Lee Haydel blooped a pitch off Paredes into LF to tie the ballgame before a not so timely double play got the JGs out.

Paredes did strike out the side in the 8th, however, and Kuo Hui Lo became the hero with a two out three run bomb in the bottom half to give the Generals the lead for good. Huntsville eked out a two out run in the 9th off Josh Fields but could not get any more.

AAA: ORG SWEEP! The Rainiers had Wednesday off!

Odds and thoughts on the 2011 NCAA Tournament

2011-03-15T11:43:00.001-07:00

Last year I composed a series of convoluted posts detailing each team's odds of winning their respective conference tournaments, then composed a full set of probabilities for each NCAA Tournament team to make the Final Four. Despite a little rust on the prob/stat end due to my theatre exploits, I jogged my memory and quickly whipped out a full set of probabilities, adjusting for the new wonky 68 team format.

The new at-large play-in format doesn't adversely affect those teams' already dim chances of making the Sweet 16 or Final Four. We're talking about 11 and 12 seeds here, after all. These teams are already facing long odds of getting to the Final Four. At worst, playing in cuts those chances by 70%, and if so that team's probably not good enough to project getting far anyway. More than likely, a worthy Cinderella candidate only sees their chances drop by 1/3... for example a 12% shot to make the Final Four becomes a 9% shot... not a huge difference.

In the distant past I've gone over the formula for determining each team's odds of winning individual games based on Sagarin ratings, and determining their odds of reaching certain points in the tournament based on Markov formulas. I won't bore you now with the details but rest assured this isn't just a bunch of numbers and ideas I pulled out of my ass.

So now, here are the four regions and odds for each team in the region:

EAST

The only region with two play in games has a lot of wonky stuff going on aside from the bonus action, but this is pretty much Ohio State's region for the taking.

Dark horse: Washington (7). I'd say Kentucky at #4 but they'll run into consensus #1 team Ohio State in the Sweet 16, easily the team to beat this year, and Orange would be a 2 to 1 dog in that matchup: I don't foresee an upset. UW, however, is a deserving but dangerous 7 seed that, for all their ups and downs (and legal trouble) this year, can play with just about anyone in the country. If they faced overseeded #2 UNC in round two I'd actually have the Huskies as the slight favorite, and think #3 Syracuse would give them a tougher but winnable challenge in the Sweet 16. Don't be too shocked if Ohio State ends up facing UW in the regional final. I won't say the Huskies would win... but they could certainly give the Buckeyes a scare at the least, and scoring the upset isn't impossible.

Overseeded: North Carolina (2) and Xavier (6). Reputation's pretty much carrying UNC in a down year: They're more like a 4 this year. Three teams below them (Syracuse, Kentucky, Washington) would be favorites to beat them on a neutral floor. Roy Williams' team would be fortunate to make the 2nd weekend, dad gummit. Xavier is more of a double digit seed, such a bad misseeding by the committee that they may have table-set a 1st round upset (more in a bit).

Underseeded: Clemson (12) and Marquette (11). Clemson did not have the best year but they should not be playing in when they're better than at least 4-5 other at-large teams, if not more. Marquette also got unduly punished, and probably deserved a single digit seed. 1st round opponent Xavier is similarly mismatched, and don't be surprised if Marquette sends Xavier packing.

No chance in hell: Neither 16 seed poses any sort of credible threat. Texas-San Antonio's odds at the Final Four are suitably long at 430,000 to 1, but the odds for Alabama State, easily the weakest team in this 68 team field, are so laughably long they make Powerball look like a better bet: 69,000,000 to 1. That is not an exaggeration. Their odds of getting to the round of 32 alone are 612 to 1 and their odds of making the 2nd weekend are roughly 23,800 to 1.

You have a better chance of... dying in a tsunami (condolences, Japan). In fact, you're more than ten times more likely to die randomly in a tsunami (615,488 to 1). Those odds obviously go up if you live on coastline in a fault zone, but still.

At least their odds are better than the odds of winning Powerball: 195,000,000 to 1.

Odds:

1. Ohio State. Sweet 16: 79.3%. Final Four: 1.4 to 1 (41.5%)
2. North Carolina. Sweet 16: 46.2%. Final Four: 9.5 to 1
3. Syracuse. Sweet 16: 59.4%. Final Four: 7.2 to 1
4. Kentucky. Sweet 16: 59.4%. Final Four: 6.0 to 1
5. West Virginia. Sweet 16: 26.4%. Final Four: 27.3 to 1
6. Xavier. Sweet 16: 14.6%. Final Four: 96.9 to 1
7. Washington. Sweet 16: 45.1%. Final Four: 8.3 to 1
8. George Mason. Sweet 16: 7.8%. Final Four: 96.7 to 1
9. Villanova. Sweet 16: 12.8%. Final Four: 42.4 to 1
10. Georgia. Sweet 16: 6.9%. Final Four: 271 to 1
11. Marquette. Sweet 16: 23.7%. Final Four: 38.9 to 1
12. UAB. Sweet 16: 2.8%. Final Four: 861 to 1
12. Clemson. Sweet 16: 8.8%. Final Four: 131 to 1
13. Princeton. Sweet 16: 2.6%. Final Four: 2488 to 1
14. Indiana State. Sweet 16: 2.3%. Final Four: 4125 to 1
15. Long Island. Sweet 16: 1.8%. Final Four: 4331 to 1
16. Texas San Antonio. Sweet 16: 0.1%. Final Four: 430,000 to 1
16. Alabama State. Sweet 16: LOL. Final Four: 69,000,000 to 1

WEST

A more conventional 16 team region also has a conventional favorite, as Duke like OSU is facing considerable odds (41%) of making the Final Four. Few teams here can pose a serious challenge for them.

Dark Horse: San Diego State (2) and Texas (4). Silly to cite two high seeds as dark horses, but these are pretty much the best teams in the field not named Duke and the only real challengers to the Blue Devils. Texas is only a 60-40 dog to Duke and if they pulled the upset they'd be the favorite against every possible opponent. SDSU would be a 2 to 1 dog vs Duke in the Elite Eight and a 56-44 dog to Texas if the Longhorns pulled the upset but would be the favorite against anyone else. The odds for either aren't terrific, around 9 to 2 or 5 to 1, but they have the most realistic chance of everyone else to pull it off.

Overseeded: Tennessee (9) and Memphis (12). The Volunteers probably deserved a double digit seed, while Memphis' reputational license has long since expired. They won their conference tourney to get in, but they pack little more punch than your run of the mill mid-major these days, and probably belongs in the 13-14 range. Don't count on a 5-12 upset when Memphis meets legit 5 seed Arizona, while Tennessee has a reasonable shot at a round one win but stands little chance against Duke in the 32-round.

Underseeded: Texas (4) and Missouri (11). Texas has the strength of a 2, and if they meet Duke in the Sweet 16 as expected they will likely pose the toughest challenge of the bracket to the Blue Devils. Missouri probably warrants a middle seed more than a bubble seed, and likely no one will notice because Cincinnati at 6 is pretty good and is a slight 54-46 favorite to dispatch the Tigers, who deserved better.

No chance in hell: 16 seed Hampton is already a 50 to 1 dog to beat Duke in round one. Their odds of going all the way to the Final Four? A paltry 100,000 to 1.

You have a better chance of... sinking a hole in one from 150 yards (80,000 to 1). Maybe Hampton should bag the tourney and join the golf team for a relaxing weekend that doesn't involve getting crushed by 30 points against a Duke team running at half speed.

Odds:

1. Duke. Sweet 16: 82.8%. Final Four: 1.4 to 1 (41.2%)
2. San Diego State. Sweet 16: 65.3%. Final Four: 4.8 to 1
3. Connecticut. Sweet 16: 45.4%. Final Four: 12.4 to 1
4. Texas. Sweet 16: 59.9%. Final Four: 4.6 to 1
5. Arizona. Sweet 16: 30.2%. Final Four: 21.9 to 1
6. Cincinnati. Sweet 16: 28.2%. Final Four: 24 to 1
7. Temple. Sweet 16: 18.6%. Final Four: 54.1 to 1
8. Michigan. Sweet 16: 9.7%. Final Four: 90.9 to 1
9. Tennessee. Sweet 16: 7.2%. Final Four: 153 to 1
10. Penn State. Sweet 16: 13.8%. Final Four: 93.7 to 1
11. Missouri. Sweet 16: 22.9%. Final Four: 35.5 to 1
12. Memphis. Sweet 16: 3.5%. Final Four: 1133 to 1
13. Oakland. Sweet 16: 6.4%. Final Four: 315 to 1
14. Bucknell. Sweet 16: 3.4%. Final Four: 1568 to 1
15. Northern Colorado. Sweet 16: 2.4%. Final Four: 2974 to 1
16. Hampton. Sweet 16: 0.3%. Final Four: 100,000 to 1

SOUTHWEST

The odds of someone other than the top seed get a little better here, but not by much,a s top seed Kansas has a 34.6% chance of making the Final Four. However, the challenge is more broad and general, with no specific dark horses posing a threat aside from....

Dark horse: Purdue (3). Purdue might be a touch underseeded but it makes little difference at 3. They are a do-able 62-38 dog against Kansas if they meet in the regional final, and are solid (though typically not dominant) favorites against anyone else in the field, even 2 seed Notre Dame. Their chances of making the Elite Eight are a solid 39.5%, and there's a 47% chance Kansas falls before that point, which would make the Boilermakers a favorite to make the Final Four.

Overseeded: Both 11 seeds in the region's play-in game: USC and VCU. Actually, "shouldn't be in the tournament at all" is a better label. Given the snubs (Colorado, St Mary's, New Mexico), and how low both of these teams rate overall, the fact that either of these teams are playing championship basketball at all is insulting. Neither objectively is close to being a bubble team, and yet here they are. USC is a 69-31 favorite in the game, and a 74-26 dog against a far superior #6 Georgetown team. 12 seed Richmond could wipe the floor with both these play-in jokes.

Underseeded: UNLV (8) and Illinois (9). Both these 1st round opponents should be a couple seeds higher. If not playing each other for the right to get force-fed to Kansas, both would have a very good shot at the 2nd weekend.

No chance in hell: Newcomer St Peter's (14) faces some fairly long odds at 11,000 to 1 thanks to drawing tough Purdue in round one, making them a 13 to 1 dog for the upset. They probably should have been a 15 but debating the low seeds is a quibble. Our 16 in this bracket, Boston U, is facing 53,600 to 1 odds, and 33 to 1 odds of getting past top seeded Kansas. Even given that, the Terriers have the best chances of any 16 seed in the field.

Odds:

1. Kansas. Sweet 16: 72.3%. Final Four: 1.9 to 1 (34.6%)
2. Notre Dame. Sweet 16: 61.8%. Final Four: 6.8 to 1
3. Purdue. Sweet 16: 62.1%. Final Four: 4.1 to 1
4. Louisville. Sweet 16: 56.9%. Final Four: 8.2 to 1
5. Vanderbilt. Sweet 16: 26.0%. Final Four: 33.8 to 1
6. Georgetown. Sweet 16: 23.0%. Final Four: 25.4 to 1
7. Texas A&M. Sweet 16: 18.1%. Final Four: 65.3 to 1
8. UNLV. Sweet 16: 12.9%. Final Four: 37.1 to 1
9. Illinois. Sweet 16: 14.6%. Final Four: 30.1 to 1
10. Florida State. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 65.0 to 1
11. USC. Sweet 16: 7.5%. Final Four: 141 to 1
11. VCU. Sweet 16: 1.1%. Final Four: 2911 to 1
12. Richmond. Sweet 16: 14.3%. Final Four: 105 to 1
13. Morehead State. Sweet 16: 2.8%. Final Four: 2818 to 1
14. St Peter's. Sweet 16: 0.9%. Final Four: 11,000 to 1
15. Akron. Sweet 16: 1.9%. Final Four: 5832 to 1
16. Boston U. Sweet 16: 0.3%. Final Four: 53,600 to 1

SOUTHEAST

The weakest (1) seed in Pittsburgh has a somewhat serious challenger and perhaps a couple of dim challengers to their Final Four throne. This region is rather seed, chock full of mid majors, only some of which pose a serious threat one on one, and many are underseeded, forcing them to climb uphill for the right to try and knock off the Panthers. But that said, Pittsburgh's weak-favorite status means there's a 68% chance someone else will represent the Southeast region in the Final Four, with over half the teams having roulette-like odds at doing so.

Dark Horse: BYU (3). Even without dismissed Brandon Davies, the Mormon Cougars have a solid top ten ballclub, and are no worse than a slight underdog to anyone. A couple of breaks and they could sneak past Pitt into the Final Four. Only a lack of dominant strength makes them a somewhat distant shot at 20.7%. Wisconsin (4) is close in strength but is slated to run into Pittsburgh in the Sweet 16 if they get that far.

Overseeded: Florida (2) and UCLA (7). The weakest two seed in the field should be a 5 or even lower. A very weak sub-bracket (UCLA at 7 and a downish Michigan State at 10, and of course the Gators draw the easily beatable 15 seed UCSB in round one) gives them an even money chance to get to the 2nd weekend, but BYU would be a 2 to 1 favorite if they met in the Sweet 16, and even #6 St John's could give them a serious game.

I had UCLA on the bubble, but they got a 7 seed. Ridiculous. They're a 56-44 underdog to Michigan State in the 1st round.

Underseeded: Utah State (12) and Belmont (13). Look, I know mid majors play weak schedules and you have to bear that in mind when they, say, win 30 games comfortably and only lose to top 50 opponents. But weak scheds never stopped the NCAA in previous years from giving Tark's UNLV teams or old powerhouse Memphis teams high seeds. Hell, Princeton teams in the 90's got single digit seeds a few times, and they rarely played anybody during the regular season.

Oh, but they never go far in the tourney anyway, right? The reason you never see these Utah States and Belmonts go far in the tourney is because you keep giving them 12 and 13 seeds and they're forced to play a tough 4 or 5 seed in the first round instead of some middling power conference team that they could beat. Are the powers that be afraid of getting their conferences exposed as overrated in an NCAA Div-I with better parity? Are they afraid of Utah State pulling a Gonzaga and showing they could go deep and that maybe these perennially successful small schools can play with the big boys and deserve respect?

Anyway, watch out for the 5-12 upset special here, as (5) Kansas State is a slight 47-53 underdog to Utah State. Belmont is not so lucky at 13: (4) Wisconsin is the real deal and a 64-36 favorite.

Speaking of Gonzaga, they're not what they used to be, but they're a slight 52-48 favorite at (11) to topple (6) St John's. Expect many upsets in this region. But not from....

No chance in hell: Arkansas Little Rock is a gift... for Pittsburgh, that is, if they can overcome 2 to 1 favorite UNC Asheville in the play in game. UALR is a 173,000 to 1 shot to thread the needle and make the Final Four.

You have a better chance of: Being killed on the job if you're a teacher or nurse (143,000 to 1). Education majors at UALR can both take comfort and weep at these facts.

Odds:

1. Pittsburgh. Sweet 16: 75.6%. Final Four: 2.1 to 1
2. Florida. Sweet 16: 52.4%. Final Four: 9 to 1
3. BYU. Sweet 16: 58.7%. Final Four: 3.8 to 1
4. Wisconsin. Sweet 16: 41.3%. Final Four: 6.9 to 1
5. Kansas State. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 33.2 to 1
6. St John's. Sweet 16: 18.1%. Final Four: 31.2 to 1
7. UCLA. Sweet 16: 18.3%. Final Four: 58.9 to 1
8. Butler. Sweet 16: 13.5%. Final Four: 61.7 to 1
9. Old Dominion. Sweet 16: 9.9%. Final Four: 108 to 1
10. Michigan State. Sweet 16: 25.8%. Final Four: 30.6 to 1
11. Gonzaga. Sweet 16: 20.1%. Final Four: 25.9 to 1
12. Utah State. Sweet 16: 22.2%. Final Four: 23.5 to 1
13. Belmont. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 29.9 to 1
14. Wofford. Sweet 16: 3.1%. Final Four: 840 to 1
15. UC Santa Barbara. Sweet 16: 3.5%. Final Four: 1649 to 1
16. UNC Asheville. Sweet 16: 0.9%. Final Four: 7729 to 1
16. Ark Little Rock. Sweet 16: 0.1%. Final Four: 173,000 to 1

More teams, more delusions: A terrible effort by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee

2011-03-14T23:26:00.000-07:00

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee's made some questionable choices every year, but even granted the novelty of the expanded 68 team field, this has to be one of the worst efforts I've seen from them in over a decade... as if most of them didn't know anything about college basketball.

By Sagarin rating (to this day one of the best barometers for team strength), if you filter out all the automatic qualifiers then the at-large selections should go down to the 50th rated team. Among those in the top 50, here is who got snubbed:

Virginia Tech (40)
St. Mary's (43)
New Mexico (48)
Colorado (49)
Maryland (50)

Here are the teams rated below that cutoff line that did get in at-large:

Tennessee (51)
Georgia (52)
UAB (53)
USC (62)
VCU (77)

The top three on that last list might be explainable: Bubble decisions can come down to various, sometimes arbitrary factors. But letting USC and VCU in at-large was inexcusable. Those two teams might not even qualify for the top half of an NIT field.

This is some of the worst seeding I've seen in years.

- I'm not a Texas fan but they're worthy of a 2 or a 3, not the 4 seed they actually got, not-as-strong schedule or not.

- And if you're going to dock Texas for a lack of top-25 wins and holding serve on a padded schedule, then why give North Carolina a 2 seed despite a 4-seed caliber season and the same type of resume?

- Georgetown getting a 6 despite going 21-10 against arguably the toughest schedule in the nation (18 of their 31 games against top 50 teams, no less) is ridiculous. Give them at least a 5, if not a 4.

- Speaking of ridiculous, Florida at 2 despite a relatively easy schedule, only two top 25 wins and four losses versus teams outside the top 50. They're a 5.

- Call me a Vegas homer, but UNLV got ripped off with an 8 seed despite finishing 3rd in a tough Mountain West conference with two top 10 teams (BYU, San Diego State) and a shoulda-been-in New Mexico team while going 24-8 with one of the nation's tougher non-conference schedules. Give them a 6 if you don't like them but they could've warranted a 5... not an 8. An 8 is what you give a 19-13 power conference team or a decent power team that built a 23-26 win season on an easy schedule. It's about time the Mountain West's better teams started getting more than mid-major respect.

- Along those lines, when is the committee going to stop treating Utah State like a small school and giving them 12 seeds when they're clearly a top 25 team? They didn't even do that to the 80's-90's UNLV teams, who played in the weaksauce Big West... and the NCAA HATED Jerry Tarkanian! Utah State this year was a 6 for sure, even with their weak schedule.

- I'm more of a body-of-work guy than a reward-the-hot-finish guy, so I'm not a fan of Villanova at 9 even though they did kind of collapse to close the season. Thing is... even if you're hot or cold at season's end, the NCAA Tourney is a whole new environment, whole new opponents, whole different situation, and when you put 18-22 year old kids in a new situation like that, it can change the perspective of even the most resilient kid and change their game in an instant. Once the nominal season ends and we hit the do-or-die nationally-staged portion of the season, the hot and cold streaks don't really matter anymore because whatever environment you entrenched your groove or rut in is wiped out. Villanova had a decent season overall and keep in mind their cold run came during conference play in the nation's toughest conference (Big East). They still had eight top-50 wins and went 21-11 against one of the 20 toughest schedules in the country. Hit the reset button on their year and I bet things change. And I bet they're not only going to beat George Mason, but they could give #1 seed Ohio State problems this weekend. Yeah, the collapse still happened, but I would've given them a 6 or 7.

- Kansas State is overseeded at 5. Objectively they're maybe a 6, likely a 7. You could even make a case they're more of an 8, but I've give their tough schedule and 21-10 record the benefit of the doubt. And go figure their 12-seed opponent in the 64 round is none other than Utah State. Possible upset.

- Missouri and Marquette at 11 is kind of ridiculous. Both are top 30 teams... yes, even 20-14 Marquette. Missouri didn't fare well vs what top 25 talent they faced but they had four wins vs numbers 26-50 and pretty much held serve otherwise over a meaty schedule in a 22-10 season. Marquette faced 18 top-50 teams in their 34 game season, and beat five top 25 teams. Nearly all of their 14 losses came against the top 50, and bear in mind in this field the committee would have ideally let in everyone in the top 50. Sure, I can see punishing Marquette's 14 losses, and sure I can see punishing Missouri's lack of big wins. But I find that petty here: Both had tough schedules and there's no reason either one wouldn't warrant an 8 or a 9 in this field.

- One 13 loss team that should've gotten the 10-12 seed treatment is Michigan, who did not beat a single top 25 team and though they beat six teams rated 26-50, they took a dive versus four teams outside the top 50. I'd still give them a 10, but certainly not the 8 seed they got.

- Vanderbilt got their annual overseeding gift from the tournament committee. This year's prize: A 5 seed in an 8-seed worthy 23-10 season with a dodgy non-con schedule, only two top 25 wins, and four losses against teams outside the top 50. Seriously, I wonder if gifts from the Vanderbilt AD to the Tournament Selection Committee are part of Vanderbilt University's annual budget.

- Belmont at 13 is stupid. Look at their track record: 30 mostly convincing wins (yes, they play in the lowly Atlantic Sun, but several of those teams had good years), hanging tough in two losses to tourney team Tennessee and in another loss to tourney-bound Vanderbilt, their only real blip being a road loss to Lipscomb in late January. With a lack of convincing majors in the field this year, give them a 9 or a 10 and see if they can give one of those meh majors a scare. Or at least reward the strong year with an 11 or 12. Don't give them a 13 like they're some garbage auto-qualified small school with 8-10 losses as if they got blown out by every top 25 team they faced, or like they lost several games against crappy no-name schools.

- Xavier and their zero top-25 wins is so overseeded at 6 that the committee clearly table-set an upset loss to underseeded 11 seed Marquette. Conversely, Richmond kind of got the shaft at 12, though with a padded sched I kind of see it. Both should have been a 9 or 10 IMO. If you're going to shaft Richmond with a 12 you should have done the same for Xavier given they've had mostly identical seasons. Why unduly reward one while punishing the other? Because we recognize Xavier on a TV set more than we recognize Richmond? That's not how you're supposed to seed teams.

- Old Dominion at 9 isn't terrible but they're easily the weakest 9 in the field and if they weren't facing a similarly weak 8 in Butler, ODU would get crushed. Both are riding reputations from previous seasons: I'd have Butler at 12 this year (they went 22-9 off a pretty weak schedule), and while I might make ODU a 10, I could see seeding them as low as 12: They won 27 games off a somewhat weak schedule and didn't look as convincing as Belmont did with their weak sched.

- I don't like making Clemson play-in: I have eight tournament teams behind them, four of which incidentally got wrongfully snubbed. They're at least an 11. They didn't look too impressive against tougher teams but they still won 21 games against a decent schedule.

- If you're going to punish 13-14 loss teams at all, then why give Penn State a 10 despite 14 losses? Because they had a hot run in the Big Ten Tourney? Again, not a fan of rewarding hot streaks, because then you get 3-4 days off and have to play a new, tough opponent on a new, neutral, nationally televised court in a do or die game... which changes everything. Yes, I like their very tough schedule, but if you reward that for a team while ignoring 13-14 losses, then don't go punishing Marquette.

- UCLA at 7 makes little sense. Yes, three top 25 wins in a 22-10 season, but they had a pretty weak schedule for a Pac 10 team (only eight top-50 opponents in all), didn't look particularly convincing in many of their wins, and lost five winnable games to teams outside the top 50. I'd have them at 12 and would have had them play-in.

******

Bear in mind... I'm only hitting the clear, distinct mistakes. Poring through the teams and ratings, there was so much else to cover that, if I could see a couple of plausible reasons to overlook a seeding mistake, maybe a particularly strong/weak schedule or a lot more losses/wins than usual or something, I let it go if it was just 1-2 seeds over or under. This post could have been twice as long if I hit everything.

Well done, Selection Committee. Way to use three extra at-large bids as an excuse to turn completely stupid.

Can't take the Heat? Get out of the kitchen

2010-07-10T13:06:00.000-07:00

Go figure that LeBron James takes a bunch of Heat, then takes the Miami Heat's offer... but not before aligning with the mainstream media to turn his free agency process into a top-story news saga that did more to embarrass the sports media than it did to elevate/desecrate LeBron's image or report on any actual news.

Here's the thing with reporting on trades and free agency in pro sports: There is only one type of news that actually matters, and that's when a deal is actually made. All the rumors, all the hearsay, all the insider info... they come and go and rarely is any of it ultimately right or even valid: Often it brews from a throwaway comment in conversation blown very far out of proportion, speculation passed along as fact. No reporting in sports media is more consistently worthless that the reporting of trade or free agency rumors.

Couple that with LeBron's insistence on formally prolonging his decision and then aligning with ESPN to conduct a one hour special where he announced his decision (a decision he by all accounts made two weeks ago), and all you've got is equal parts three ring circus and pied piper, pulling the gullible masses along, of which includes the mainstream media itself, thirst for something to report on in the doldrums of baseball season with the World Cup winding down, the NBA and Stanley Cup Finals having long since concluded and NFL football season still more than a month away.

Thus I give very, very little credence to criticisms of LeBron James' character. He made no secret that he was unhappy with the Cleveland Cavaliers and that he would test the market. Given the obvious widespread interest in the superstar's services, LeBron was virtually assured of signing elsewhere. For LeBron to leave a perpetually underachieving Cleveland Cavs team is not an act of treason, but simply a desire to play for a better team. He owes the Cleveland Cavaliers nothing except his services over the life of his contract with the team, which expired after this season. Any moral arguments to the contrary are, like those trade and free agency rumors, all hot air in a media world that's already full of it.

Nobody told Michael Rosenberg.

Michael Jordan announced on national television he's leaving Chicago to join the Detroit Pistons. Jordan said it was tough to bolt Chicago, where he was the most popular athlete in many years, because he thinks he has a better chance to win a championship if he plays with Pistons star Isiah Thomas. Jordan said by playing together, he and Thomas "won't have the pressure of going out and scoring 30 every night."

That would have sounded absurd, right? Well, it is no more absurd than what LeBron James is doing. Jordan was 27 years old in 1990, slightly older than James is now. He had never been to the NBA Finals. He had been beaten up by the Celtics and Pistons for years. He doubted his supporting cast was good enough.

First of all, Michael Jordan was part of a carefully assembled, vastly improved team with strong role players (a young Scottie Pippen and BJ Armstrong, Horace Grant, John Paxson), and an innovative and effective coach in Phil Jackson. His team was loaded with young and improving talent, plus effective veterans (Grant, Bill Cartwright, Paxson, etc) with a lot of mileage left.

LeBron was on a hastily thrown together team of okay-ish players (Mo Williams, Delonte West) declining veterans (Shaq, Anthony Parker, Zydrunas Ilgauskas) and maybe one other young talent that might be an effective counterpart over the long haul (JJ Hickson). Their coach, the recently fired Mike Brown, was a terrible strategist and had barely the first idea of how to manage his personnel. With no head coach as of yet, no assurance the Cavs would hire a good coach, and no young supporting cast, not to mention a constantly transitioning roster with no identity let alone no style.

Save for improving to a winning record the last few seasons, the Cavs were nothing, NOTHING, like the Bulls team that Jordan elected to stay with. The situation MJ had in Chicago was vastly superior to the situation he would have found somewhere else. In Chicago, Jordan could be the leader of a young, stable, improving unit under a great strategic coach who also ran the team with a calm, balanced and yet suitably authoritative demeanor. No other team could have provided all of that, and a group he was familiar with to boot.

As for LeBron, he walked away from a rag-tag group that definitely would have to be rebuilt over the next season or three, and could well spend the rest of LeBron's youthful years rebuilding. They didn't even have a coach, nor much of an idea who they wanted to coach.

Contrast that with a fractured but reloaded Miami Heat team that just re-signed Dwyane Wade and just acquired star post man Chris Bosh. They have an incumbent and effective coach in Erik Spoelstra working under legendary Pat Riley. Yes, Miami has to reload that roster, but they also now have three very strong players in James, Wade and Bosh to build that team around. Compare this to the fractured and perpetually directionless situation in Cleveland, and it's no wonder James would choose Miami over that.

Oh wait, Rosenberg's not done yet.

the self-proclaimed King said everything you need to know about him.

1. "You have to do what's best for you, and what's going to make you happy."

This is what's going to make him happy? Sharing a stage with two other stars? Really?

Well... yes!

First of all, Michael Rosenberg, who are you to decide what should and shouldn't make a star player happy? If LeBron James decides tag teaming with two star players instead of being the star leader on another team is what makes him happy, then who are you to tell him that's wrong? It's none of your business to decide what LeBron James does and doesn't want.

I guess that's all LeBron is: A complementary player with superstar talent. We should have figured this out before: He got that giant CHOSEN 1 tattoo on his back and calls himself King James because he is desperate for reassurance.

Actually, the MEDIA and his cohorts dubbed him King James. He ran it because well why the hell not.

And Rosenberg plays sports psychologist again, telling us with certainty that James got those tattoos because he was desperate for constant reassurance. Maybe LeBron just thought they were cool nicknames synonymous with his reputation. People get tattoos for a variety of reasons, some of which make more rational sense than others.

So far, we've got an article heading forward with a full head of steam on the basis of three very hastily assembled and poorly thought out presuppositions concocted purely in the author's imaginative mind. I have a bad feeling about the rest of this piece.

2. "We don't have the pressure of going out and scoring 30 every night or shooting a high percentage."

Whoa. Hold on there. Scoring 30 a night is too much pressure for one of the five most talented players ever?

Well, when defenses are tighter than ever and every team you play is focused intently on stopping you... yes, Michael, yes it is. I don't care if you're Jesus Christ and have blessed yourself with a 68 inch vertical leap, and the refs are giving you every call ever.

LeBron would rather be on a team where other stars provide a sthreat and, if he ahs a down night, others will be able to pick up the slack... than be a 30 point guy on a team where if he doesn't throw down 30 his team's probably losing because everyone else sucks. LeBron isn't perfect and can't play 82 spectacular games a year, plus 15-25 spectacular games in the playoffs, if his body can hold up to that kind of pressure. Strange, I know. There are very few players that could play consistently great all the way down the stretch in those conditions, and the list consists of Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson and... uh....

Find me another all-time NBA great who would utter those words. Jordan would rather do an adidas commercial than say that. Bryant must have laughed as he heard the so-called "King" say that. Larry Bird? The next time he complains about pressure will be the first. Magic was the greatest team player of the last 40 years, but he was also so competitive that he wanted to play Jordan one-on-one in a promotional event -- and this was when Magic had won titles and Jordan had not, so Magic had more to lose.

Now would be a good time to note that Jordan had Scottie Pippen and, later, Dennis Rodman. Bryant had Shaq during his first title run and Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Ron Artest during his 2nd. Bird had Kevin McHale and Robert Parrish. And Magic had James Worthy and some dude named Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on his team, who BTW I hear is only the NBA's all time leading scorer. Yeah, none of those had or needed any help whatsoever. None.

3. "I know how loyal I am."

The man just dumped his hometown(s) on national television.

LeBron, like the rest of us, is loyal to an employer as long as he is technically employed by them. And like the rest of us, he is as loyal to his hometown as long as living there serves him well. He owes Cleveland nothing. Do we serious think Michael Rosenberg would stay loyal to SI if they treated him badly and another media outlet offered him three times the money to write for them?

This is pretty sad to read, because Rosenberg generally is a fairly decent sports writer. But this just reeks of Rosenberg being pressured by his employer and peers to craft up false moral indignance over a decision that honestly makes sense for all parties.

LeBron James just jumped into an elevator and wants us to think he can fly. Sorry, but we know better. We know that he did something Michael, Magic, Bird and Bill Russell never would have done. We know he ditched Cleveland for an All-Star team.

Right, because if Michael Jordan were the leading scorer for a rag-tag Cleveland Cavs team instead of the young, improving Bulls team he was a part of upon free agency, he totally would have stayed. If Bill Russell were the only good player on the Clippers, he totally would have stayed. Magic would have eschewed good money to be the man on a team of nobodies with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Oh wait, all of those players were great players on great teams with great teammates and great coaches, and LeBron walked away from a fractured team with the revolving-door roster and no coach.

I've already given this terrible piece more attention than it probably warrants, so I'll just say that while LeBron's media whoring was amusingly annoying, it made sense and his ultimate decision made sense.

Media hot air, however, will never make sense. Aside from drawing attention to said outlets, it rarely if ever provides any real sociocultural value.

Why would teams try to win in a lost season?

2010-06-27T11:29:00.000-07:00

Check this out.

The Mariners are over 10 games out of 1st place in the AL West, and well below .500. Why would they trade two fringey prospects (Ezequiel Carrera, Juan Diaz) to get back Russell Branyan in a lost season? There are two simple reasons, one being much bigger to the Mariners than the other.

Even if the team and many fans (such as many reading here, myself included) have given up on the season, many local/regional fans still might have an interest in attending Mariner games, so long as the team can make a significant effort to win, i.e. not make the cost and time invested to see a game a complete waste of their time. A team that scores 3 runs a game and is clearly/obviously punting the season isn’t going to draw most casual fans.

But believe it or not, the ticket sales side of the equation is the small part. Ticket sales, while valuable, make up a minority of the team's revenue. The biggest reason why Jack would want to buff up 2010’s team in a lost season is that the team's in-season performance from here on out does matter to the team’s relationship with FSNW and ESPN Radio, given the networks are paying the Mariners a lucrative sum for their media contracts.

A better team that competes despite the record equals more game-to-game interest which means more ratings. More interest in the team in 2010 means more viewers in 2010 which means higher average ratings during 2010 as well as over the life of the current contract, which means more ad dollars down the line.

If ratings for Mariners broadcasts tank, a) FSNW loses money in the long run as advertisers can cite lowered average ratings as justifiable leverage to lower the price on ad spots with the network and b) the Mariners may lose out on money from a new radio or TV contract down the line, as the network side will cite low ratings from this period as justification for low-balling the M’s when it comes time to negotiate a renewal. Sure, the Mariners have a 10 year, $300 million deal with FSN through 2020, but let's say the team wanted to buy out and jump to a more lucrative deal, or let's say FSN wanted to nix the deal. Don't forget the radio deal with KIRO ($5.5 million per year) only lasts through 2011. There is still plenty of leverage, as well as money, that can be gained and lost by what team they elect to field for the rest of 2010.

Even if the team's playoff chances in a vacuum make upgrading the 2010 roster seem like a waste of time, doing so could have an impact that reaches way beyond the field, and way beyond 2010.

Net Runs shelved indefinitely

2010-06-22T11:34:00.000-07:00

For various personal reasons, I have decided to shelve Net Runs until further notice. My eventual goal with the system is to program a method where I can calculate it quickly and automatically. I gather Net Runs will return once that is possible. But for now....

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-19-2010 (Seattle 5, Cincinnati 1)

2010-06-20T11:33:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
CIN	Sam LeCure	-1.140	0.000	-1.392	0.252	0.000	6.15	18
CIN	Ramon Hernandez	-0.683	-0.576	0.000	-0.107	0.000	0.00	0
CIN	Joey Votto	2.144	0.697	0.000	1.340	0.107	0.00	0
CIN	Brandon Phillips	-0.947	-0.883	0.000	-0.064	0.000	0.00	0
CIN	Scott Rolen	-1.768	-1.183	0.000	-0.368	-0.217	0.00	0
CIN	Orlando Cabrera	-0.297	-0.909	0.000	0.612	0.000	0.00	0
CIN	Laynce Nix	-0.160	-0.574	0.000	0.414	0.000	0.00	0
CIN	Drew Stubbs	0.823	0.069	0.000	0.647	0.107	0.00	0
CIN	Jay Bruce	0.370	-0.484	0.000	0.854	0.000	0.00	0
CIN	Jonny Gomes	0.162	0.162	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CIN	Jordan Smith	0.265	0.000	0.265	0.000	0.000	3.11	6
CIN	CIN Luckbox	0.139	0.139	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CIN	Dusty Baker	-0.358	0.000	0.000	-0.358	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	1.340	0.000	1.335	0.005	0.000	2.98	27
SEA	Rob Johnson	-1.149	-1.010	0.000	-0.139	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.367	-0.443	0.000	0.076	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.177	0.777	0.000	0.293	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.468	-0.460	0.000	0.209	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.737	-0.243	0.000	-0.494	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	2.480	2.210	0.000	0.270	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.968	0.197	0.000	1.586	0.185	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	1.187	0.783	0.000	0.404	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-1.284	-1.284	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.358	0.358	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	3.055	0.000	0.000	-3.055	0.000	0.00	0
	RE/Inning: 0.505

Player of the Game: Michael Saunders (2.480 NRuns: 2.210 hitting, 0.270 fielding)
Mariners over 1.000 NRuns: 5 (Hernandez, Figgins, Saunders, Gutierrez, Ichiro)

Goat: Scott Rolen (-1.768 NRuns: -1.183 hitting, -0.368 fielding, -0.217 running)

Felix Hernandez's pitching: 1.335 NRuns... 2.98 EXERA
Mariners defense: 2.210 NRuns

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-18-2010 (Seattle 1, Cincinnati 0)

2010-06-18T23:25:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	EXERA	PitOuts
CIN	Johnny Cueto	1.240	0.000	1.095	0.145	2.60	17
CIN	Corky Miller	-0.345	-0.576	0.000	0.231	0.00	0
CIN	Joey Votto	0.048	0.043	0.000	0.005	0.00	0
CIN	Brandon Phillips	-0.284	-0.505	0.000	0.221	0.00	0
CIN	Scott Rolen	0.190	-0.355	0.000	0.545	0.00	0
CIN	Orlando Cabrera	-1.285	-0.386	0.000	-0.899	0.00	0
CIN	Jonny Gomes	-1.728	-1.310	0.000	-0.418	0.00	0
CIN	Chris Heisey	0.136	-0.505	0.000	0.641	0.00	0
CIN	Jay Bruce	-0.484	-0.484	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CIN	Miguel Cairo	-0.574	-0.574	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CIN	Danny Herrera	0.867	0.000	0.867	0.000	-1.21	4
CIN	Drew Stubbs	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CIN	Arthur Rhodes	0.607	0.000	0.607	0.000	-0.85	3
CIN	CIN Luckbox	0.107	0.107	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CIN	Dusty Baker	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	-0.196	0.000	-0.196	0.000	0.000	4.39	27
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.255	-0.148	0.000	-0.107	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	-0.842	-0.842	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.814	-0.814	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	1.188	0.683	0.000	0.505	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	1.389	1.556	0.000	-0.274	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-0.077	-1.120	0.000	1.043	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.034	-0.668	0.000	1.702	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.978	-0.672	0.000	1.650	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.534	-0.534	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.222	0.000	0.000	0.222	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-0.588	-0.588	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	RE/Inning: 0.505

Player of the Game: Josh Wilson (1.389 NRuns: 1.556 hitting, -0.274 fielding)

Cliff Lee: -0.196 NRuns, 4.39 EXERA
Mariners outfield defense: 4.395 NRuns

Reds pitching: 2.569 NRuns
Reds defense: 0.471 NRuns
Reds lineup: -4.652 NRuns

Goat: Jonny Gomes (-1.728 NRuns: -1.310 hitting, -0.418 fielding)

Seattle Mariners minor league EMERA for June 2010

2010-06-18T12:51:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the delay in Net Runs posts: The preceding games will get caught up later tonight, along with posts for a couple of other special items.

Following up on the Seattle Mariners minor league system's pitching, here is the Mariners minor league EMERA for all eligible pitchers* based on season pitching totals current as of yesterday. Pitchers are broken down by tiers: Ignoring all other developmental concerns, you could hypothetically slot the 1st tier in AAA, the 2nd tier in AA, the 3rd tier in High A and the 4th tier in Low A. On a more relevant scale, you want AAA pitchers in the 1st tier, not the 2nd tier or below... and you expect single A pitchers in the 3rd or 4th tier, so they're doing well if slotted higher.

And of course, EMERA is designed to estimate a pitcher's potential MLB ERA, so if his EMERA looks like a decent MLB ERA, that pitcher theoretically could pitch in the bigs right now.

(Ryan Feierabend is currently pitching in AAA and has enough innings to qualify, but I included his High A totals in parentheses as a point of comparative reference, as he has enough innings at that level to qualify as well.)

* - Minimum of 10 IP

Player - 1st Tier	Lvl	EMERA
Brian Sweeney	AAA	3.74
Robert Rohrbaugh	AA	4.43
Garrett Olson	AAA	4.80
Edward Paredes	AA	4.96
Anthony Vasquez	A+	5.14
Anthony Varvaro	AA	5.23
Michael Pineda	AA	5.42
Stephen Penney	A+	5.45
Mauricio Robles	AA	5.50
Anthony Vasquez	A	5.51
Steve Bray	AA	5.59
Ryan Feierabend	AAA	5.61

Player - 2nd Tier	Lvl	EMERA
Steve Palazzolo	AAA	5.66
Steven Hensley	AA	5.78
Aaron Jensen	AA	5.94
Maikel Cleto	A+	5.95
Josh Fields	AA	5.98
(Ryan Feierabend)	A+	6.06
Chad Cordero	AAA	6.10
Chris Kirkland	A	6.39
Brian Moran	A	6.71
Dan Cortes	AA	6.71
Luis Muñoz	AA	6.75
Andrew Carraway	A+	6.85
Taylor Stanton	A	6.90

Player - 3rd Tier	Lvl	EMERA
Mumba Rivera	AA	6.91
David Pauley	AAA	6.99
Steven Richard	A+	7.16
Chris Seddon	AAA	7.19
Levale Speigner	AAA	7.21
Luke French	AAA	7.24
Andy Baldwin	AAA	7.31
Jake Wild	A+	7.34
Steven Shell	AAA	7.38
Erasmo Ramirez	A	7.57
Cheyne Hann	A+	7.67
Jon Hesketh	A	7.73

Player - 4th Tier	Lvl	EMERA
Mike Koplove	AAA	7.76
Jose Jimenez	A	8.08
Bobby LaFromboise	A+	8.28
Blake Nation	A+	8.31
John Housey	A	8.41
Yusmeiro Petit	AAA	8.55
Kenn Kasparek	A+	8.65
Nick Czyz	A+	9.66
Brandon Josselyn	A	9.85
Marwin Vega	A+	9.96
James Gillheeney	A	10.49
Daniel Cooper	A	11.74
Taylor Lewis	A	12.25
Tyler Blandford	A	14.51
Ryan Moorer	A+	14.92

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-16-2010 (Seattle 2, St Louis 1)

2010-06-16T23:34:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	-0.282	-0.497	0.215	0.000	0.000	3.83	23
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-1.631	-1.174	0.000	-0.248	-0.209	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	-0.476	-0.255	0.000	-0.221	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.626	0.516	0.000	0.000	0.110	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.248	0.108	0.000	0.140	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.465	-0.486	0.000	0.021	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.182	0.008	0.000	-0.190	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	2.323	-0.075	0.000	2.398	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.609	0.716	0.000	0.698	-0.805	0.00	0
SEA	Brandon League	0.351	0.000	0.351	0.000	0.000	-4.72	1
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-0.319	-0.509	0.000	0.190	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-0.126	0.000	-0.126	0.000	0.000	5.11	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.324	0.169	0.000	0.155	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
STL	Jaime Garcia	-0.911	-0.394	-0.517	0.000	0.000	4.68	21
STL	Yadier Molina	-0.948	-0.649	0.000	-0.299	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Albert Pujols	0.127	-0.015	0.000	0.142	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Felipe Lopez	-1.319	-1.110	0.000	-0.209	0.000	0.00	0
STL	David Freese	0.749	0.297	0.000	0.452	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Brendan Ryan	-0.800	-0.256	0.000	-0.544	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Matt Holliday	0.780	-0.908	0.000	1.688	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Colby Rasmus	-1.217	-1.142	0.000	-0.075	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Ryan Ludwick	0.706	0.127	0.000	0.579	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Randy Winn	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Trever Miller	0.009	0.000	0.009	0.000	0.000	3.99	3
STL	Jason Motte	1.198	0.000	1.198	0.000	0.000	-5.93	3
STL	Dennys Reyes	-0.041	0.000	-0.041	0.000	0.000	∞	0
STL	Nick Stavinoha	0.574	0.412	0.000	0.000	0.162	0.00	0
STL	STL Luckbox	0.248	0.248	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Tony LaRussa	-0.155	-0.155	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Busch Stadium	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	RE/Inning: 0.487

Player of the Game: Michael Saunders (2.323 NRuns: -0.075 hitting, 2.398 fielding)

Goat? Eliezer Aflonzo (-1.631 NRuns: -1.174 hitting, -0.248 fielding, -0.209 running)

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-15-2010 (St Louis 4, Seattle 2)

2010-06-15T23:11:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-2.909	-0.548	-2.361	0.000	0.000	8.99	12
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.171	0.124	0.000	0.047	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-1.069	-0.718	0.000	-0.351	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-1.338	-1.101	0.000	-0.237	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	1.593	0.232	0.000	1.361	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-1.676	-1.936	0.000	0.260	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	2.247	1.365	0.000	0.882	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.724	-0.549	0.000	1.273	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	2.110	-0.510	0.000	2.478	0.142	0.00	0
SEA	Garrett Olson	-1.064	0.000	-1.064	0.000	0.000	8.50	6
SEA	Brandon League	0.206	0.000	0.206	0.000	0.000	2.34	3
SEA	Shawn Kelley	0.124	0.000	0.331	-0.207	0.000	1.30	3
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	0.116	0.116	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.155	0.000	0.000	0.155	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
STL	Jeff Suppan	0.139	0.017	0.122	0.000	0.000	3.81	12
STL	Yadier Molina	-1.074	-0.932	0.000	-0.142	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Albert Pujols	0.139	0.494	0.000	0.280	-0.635	0.00	0
STL	Skip Schumaker	-0.710	0.203	0.000	-0.913	0.000	0.00	0
STL	David Freese	0.230	0.090	0.000	0.140	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Brendan Ryan	2.919	1.111	0.000	1.646	0.162	0.00	0
STL	Matt Holliday	0.406	-0.637	0.000	1.043	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Colby Rasmus	1.570	1.298	0.000	0.272	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Ryan Ludwick	-0.493	-1.096	0.000	0.603	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Kyle McClellan	0.554	0.000	0.323	0.231	0.000	2.72	6
STL	Randy Winn	-0.163	-0.163	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Ryan Franklin	-0.374	0.000	-0.374	0.000	0.000	7.18	3
STL	Blake Hawksworth	0.631	0.000	0.631	0.000	0.000	0.90	5
STL	Trever Miller	-0.041	0.000	-0.041	0.000	0.000	5.09	1
STL	Felipe Lopez	0.061	0.055	0.000	0.006	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Nick Stavinoha	0.260	0.260	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
STL	STL Luckbox	0.032	0.032	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Tony LaRussa	-0.155	-0.155	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	RE/Inning: 0.487

Player of the Game: Brendan Ryan (2.919 NRuns: 1.111 hitting, 1.646 fielding, 0.162 running)

Goat: Ryan Rowland-Smith (-2.909 NRuns: -0.548 hitting, -2.361 pitching, 8.99 EXERA)

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-14-2010 (St Louis 9, Seattle 3)

2010-06-15T18:25:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Luke French	-3.667	-0.093	-3.574	0.000	0.000	11.52	12
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.696	-0.696	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	-0.253	-0.371	0.000	0.118	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.878	1.087	0.000	0.543	0.248	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-3.420	-0.940	0.000	-1.845	-0.635	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.189	-0.876	0.000	1.065	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.020	-0.665	0.000	0.535	0.110	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.321	-1.486	0.000	1.807	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	3.440	1.680	0.000	1.760	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ian Snell	-0.764	0.000	-0.764	0.000	0.000	7.25	6
SEA	Chad Cordero	-0.836	0.000	-0.836	0.000	0.000	11.04	3
SEA	Sean White	-1.404	0.000	-1.404	0.000	0.000	15.78	3
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.962	0.412	0.000	0.550	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	-0.163	-0.163	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	1.005	1.005	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
STL	Adam Wainwright	-0.780	0.192	-0.763	0.000	-0.209	4.97	21
STL	Yadier Molina	-1.076	-1.076	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Albert Pujols	1.910	2.951	0.000	-0.207	-0.834	0.00	0
STL	Felipe Lopez	-1.990	-1.351	0.000	-0.639	0.000	0.00	0
STL	David Freese	-0.078	-0.698	0.000	0.620	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Brendan Ryan	-0.077	-0.118	0.000	0.041	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Matt Holliday	0.963	0.434	0.000	0.529	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Colby Rasmus	3.638	1.536	0.000	2.102	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Ryan Ludwick	3.266	2.677	0.000	0.589	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Aaron Miles	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Jason Motte	0.401	0.000	0.401	0.000	0.000	0.72	3
STL	Mitchell Boggs	-0.331	0.000	-0.331	0.000	0.000	6.82	3
STL	STL Luckbox	1.600	1.600	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
STL	Tony LaRussa	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Busch Stadium	4.018	0.000	0.000	-4.018	0.000	0.00	0
	RE/Inning: 0.487

Co-Players of the Game:

Colby Rasmus (3.638 NRuns: 1.536 hitting, 2.102 fielding)
Ryan Ludwick (3.266 NRuns: 2.677 hitting, 0.589 fielding)

Cardinals luckbox: 1.600 NRuns

Mariners luckbox: 1.005 NRuns

Mariners Player of the Game: Ichiro (3.440 NRuns: 1.680 hitting, 1.760 fielding)

Co-Goats:

Luke French (-3.667 NRuns: -0.093 hitting, -3.574 pitching, 11.52 EXERA)
Jose Lopez (-3.420 NRuns: -0.940 hitting, -1.845 fielding, -0.635 running)
Mariners bullpen (-3.004 NRuns, 11.14 EXERA)

******

I will only add that never have I seen three such good performances in a game with two such bad performances. This even ignores Sean White's awful 8th inning (-1.404 NRuns, 15.78 EXERA), not to mention the garbage effort by the rest of the bullpen (though Ian Snell's striking out of the side was a fine way to go out: He was DFA'd today).

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-13-2010 (Seattle 4, San Diego 2)

2010-06-13T19:24:00.000-07:00

Quick and dirty... but nice job by Felix today:

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	1.642	-0.125	1.556	0.211	0.000	1.67	26
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.525	0.622	0.000	0.000	-0.097	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	-1.421	-1.409	0.000	-0.012	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.356	-0.037	0.000	0.028	-0.347	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.238	0.430	0.000	0.085	-0.753	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.029	-0.312	0.000	0.283	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	2.051	2.041	0.000	0.010	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.695	0.110	0.000	-0.805	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.852	0.852	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000	0.000	6.42	1
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.194	0.000	0.000	0.194	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.102	0.102	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.497	-0.497	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SDP	Clayton Richard	0.006	-0.255	0.261	0.000	0.000	2.86	21
SDP	Nick Hundley	-0.730	-0.730	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Adrian Gonzalez	0.088	0.436	0.000	-0.348	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	David Eckstein	0.736	-0.562	0.000	1.298	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chase Headley	-0.314	-0.505	0.000	0.191	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Jerry Hairston	0.110	0.044	0.000	0.066	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Scott Hairston	-1.319	-0.262	0.000	-1.154	0.097	0.00	0
SDP	Tony Gwynn	2.010	1.171	0.000	0.839	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Will Venable	-0.891	-0.891	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Ryan Webb	0.381	0.000	0.381	0.000	0.000	-1.60	2
SDP	Joe Thatcher	-0.748	0.000	-0.748	0.000	0.000	21.89	1
SDP	Luke Gregerson	0.110	0.000	0.110	0.000	0.000	2.25	3
SDP	Oscar Salazar	-0.125	-0.125	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	SDP Luckbox	0.659	0.162	0.000	0.497	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Bud Black	-0.102	0.000	0.000	-0.102	0.000	0.00	0
	RE/Inning: 0.380

Player of the Game: Milton Bradley (2.051 NRuns: 2.041 hitting, 0.010 fielding)

Mariners defense: -0.006 NRuns
Felix Hernandez: 1.556 pitching NRuns, 1.67 EXERA

Goat? Mike Carp (-1.421 NRuns: -1.409 hitting, -0.012 fielding)

Net Runs Special, 6-8-2010: Stephen Strasburg's Major League Debut (Washington 5, Pittsburgh 2)

2010-06-13T13:40:00.001-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
PIT	Jeff Karstens	-0.671	-0.274	-0.397	0.000	0.000	4.95	15
PIT	Jason Jaramillo	-0.804	-0.803	0.000	-0.001	0.000	0.00	0
PIT	Garrett Jones	-1.788	-0.939	0.000	-0.009	-0.840	0.00	0
PIT	Neil Walker	0.807	-0.164	0.000	0.971	0.000	0.00	0
PIT	Andy LaRoche	-0.030	-0.082	0.000	0.052	0.000	0.00	0
PIT	Ronny Cedeno	1.180	-0.044	0.000	1.118	0.106	0.00	0
PIT	Lastings Milledge	2.335	0.248	0.000	2.087	0.000	0.00	0
PIT	Andrew McCutchen	-0.694	-0.912	0.000	0.218	0.000	0.00	0
PIT	Delwyn Young	0.543	1.397	0.000	-0.854	0.000	0.00	0
PIT	Javier Lopez	-1.237	0.000	-1.237	0.000	0.000	14.61	3
PIT	Evan Meek	0.606	0.000	0.606	0.000	0.000	1.76	6
PIT	Ryan Church	-0.319	-0.319	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
PIT	PIT Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
PIT	John Russell	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
WAS	Stephen Strasburg	0.017	-0.412	0.429	0.000	0.000	3.78	21
WAS	Ivan Rodriguez	-0.355	0.454	0.000	-0.106	-0.703	0.00	0
WAS	Adam Dunn	2.660	2.522	0.000	0.138	0.000	0.00	0
WAS	Cristian Guzman	0.484	-0.462	0.000	0.840	0.106	0.00	0
WAS	Ryan Zimmerman	1.615	1.616	0.000	-0.001	0.000	0.00	0
WAS	Ian Desmond	0.381	-0.703	0.000	1.084	0.000	0.00	0
WAS	Josh Willingham	1.132	1.245	0.000	0.376	-0.489	0.00	0
WAS	Nyjer Morgan	-0.482	-0.482	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
WAS	Roger Bernadina	-1.066	-1.564	0.000	0.498	0.000	0.00	0
WAS	Tyler Clippard	0.143	0.000	0.143	0.000	0.000	3.10	3
WAS	Matt Capps	0.446	0.000	0.446	0.000	0.000	0.57	3
WAS	Adam Kennedy	-0.001	0.000	0.000	-0.001	0.000	0.00	0
WAS	Willie Harris	-0.240	-0.240	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
WAS	WAS Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
WAS	Jim Riggleman	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Nationals Park	4.662	0.000	0.000	-4.662	0.000	0.00	0
	RE/Inning: 0.514

How Net Runs works.

More on Strasburg's debut in this piece.

Player of the Game: ... Adam Dunn?! (2.660 NRuns: 2.522 hitting, 0.138 fielding)

What about our hero, Stephen Strasburg? (0.017 NRuns: -0.412 hitting, 0.429 pitching... 3.78 EXERA)

Nationals defense: 2.828 NRuns
Nationals hitting: 1.974 NRuns

Goat: Garrett Jones (-1.788 NRuns: -0.939 hitting, -0.009 fielding, -0.840 running)

******

I don't process Net Runs with any personal bias. At most, I make judgment calls on which fielder was responsible for some plays, and whether a wild pitch was truly a wild pitch or a pitch the catcher should have blocked and didn't. But otherwise, I just put in the play by play data, my spreadsheet auto-scores it accordingly and what you get is the end result.

For any misgivings I have offered about the possibilities of Stephen Strasburg's greatness, I fully expected him to be the Player of the Game for this contest and for his pitching stats to bear out a dominant performance against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.

Instead, Net Runs indicates that he had simply a good game, an effort where you should expect him to allow 3 runs over 7 innings. He allowed two runs on a home run by Delwyn Young in the 4th, but I figured that would be a blip on a radar of strikeouts and groundballs that would roll up positive Net Runs like a Katamari ball.

Instead, it turns out that inning also featured three of the five line drives Strasburg allowed, each of which cost him 0.521 NRuns. Strasburg's 14 strikeouts averaged 0.180 NRuns per K, a total of 2.520 NRuns in pitching production. And the line drives cost him about 2.605 NRuns, offseting all of that and more. You can say that Strasburg had a bad lineup so far off balance that it shouldn't matter, and contextually speaking you're probably right. But on five occasions, Pirates hitters were able to square a Strasburg pitch up and drive it, and appropriately four of those line drives produced base hits, one of which was Delwyn Young's two run homer.

Strasburg still finished in the black thanks to four groundballs at 0.102 NRuns a pop, and a pop up (which it turns out ended the two run inning) for 0.102 NRuns. But a combination of the Pirates' own futility and a bit of fortune during the two run inning (a double play turned against Garrett Jones actually saved a run: Young's homer came in the next plate appearance) did just as much to cement Strasburg's dominance as Strasburg did himself.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-12-2010 (San Diego 7, Seattle 1)

2010-06-13T11:19:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	-0.835	-0.784	0.330	-0.381	0.000	2.78	21
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.718	0.171	0.000	0.547	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	0.114	0.326	0.000	-0.212	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.341	-0.005	0.000	0.346	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-1.982	-0.976	0.000	0.000	-1.006	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-1.016	-0.198	0.000	-0.818	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	0.388	-0.211	0.000	0.599	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.285	-0.048	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.924	1.530	0.000	-0.606	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Sean White	0.052	0.000	0.052	0.000	0.000	1.87	1
SEA	Brandon League	0.125	0.000	0.125	0.000	0.000	1.61	2
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.671	-0.671	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-0.831	-0.831	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.283	0.283	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SDP	Wade LeBlanc	-0.604	-0.448	-0.253	0.097	0.000	3.52	18
SDP	Yorvit Torrealba	1.095	0.089	0.000	1.006	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Adrian Gonzalez	1.829	1.692	0.000	0.137	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	David Eckstein	0.135	-0.031	0.000	0.166	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chase Headley	0.892	0.084	0.000	0.677	0.131	0.00	0
SDP	Jerry Hairston	-0.075	-0.045	0.000	0.614	-0.644	0.00	0
SDP	Scott Hairston	-1.528	-0.419	0.000	-1.109	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Tony Gwynn	1.289	0.166	0.000	1.123	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chris Denorfia	-0.001	0.223	0.000	-0.055	-0.169	0.00	0
SDP	Luke Gregerson	0.243	0.000	0.243	0.000	0.000	1.14	3
SDP	Will Venable	0.606	0.522	0.000	0.084	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Mike Adams	0.031	0.000	0.031	0.000	0.000	2.91	3
SDP	Edward Mujica	0.186	0.000	0.186	0.000	0.000	1.62	3
SDP	Oscar Salazar	2.385	2.385	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	SDP Luckbox	0.424	0.424	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Bud Black	-0.283	0.000	-0.283	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Petco Park	4.257	0.000	0.000	-4.257	0.000	0.00	0.380
	RE/Inning: 0.380

Player of the Game: Oscar Salazar (2.385 hitting NRuns on pinch home run)
Padres with 1.000+ NRuns: 4 (Torrealba, Gonzalez, Gwynn, Salazar)
Padres defense: 2.740 NRuns

Mariners defense: -0.192 NRuns
Mariners with 1.000+ NRuns: 0

Goat: Jose Lopez (-1.982 NRuns: -0.976 hitting, 0.000 fielding, -1.006 running)

******

Three interesting topics from this game:

- Twice the Mariners loaded the bases with less than two outs, and both times they came up empty.

1st inning: With no outs and the sacks jacked, Jose Lopez hit a groundball to 3B that 3B Chase Headley astutely threw home for the force out to save a run (and cut the RE by 0.677 runs). But despite the play being a bit slow and despite catcher Yorvit Torrealba struggling with the handle upon turning to throw to 1B, he still got Jose Lopez at 1st for the 5-2-3 double play, costing the Mariners a whole other run in run expectancy (1.006 to be exact). With one ill-timed groundball and a subsequent lack of hustle up the line, Jose Lopez gave up 1.683 NRuns. Josh Wilson's flyball to right was subsequently caught to end the inning (-0.671 NRuns).

8th inning: With one out and the bases loaded, Michael Saunders pinch hit for Rob Johnson... and struck out (-0.831 NRuns). Casey Kotchman pinch hit for Cliff Lee (after seven decent innings), and grounded to short to end the threat (-0.671 NRuns). The decision to pinch hit for Rob wasn't terribly curious, as he's not having a good season at the plate, but he did have a double earlier in the game and has shown a propensity to work some walks, while Saunders (though he's much improved from last season) has looked overmatched at the plate on occasion this season, especially in pressure situations. I can understand not wanting to bring groundball machine Kotchman to the plate with one out... but why not let Robo Rob hit with one out in that situation?

Unless Wak is tacitly admitting the season is lost and he's experimenting at this point (and a willingness to lean on Sean White and Brandon League in high leverage situations as usual along with a reversion to his usual lineup indicates this isn't the case), that first pinch substitution was probably not the best decision given all the factors. The Kotchman PH for Lee was fine: Kotch is probably the best guy to send up at that point.

But twice the Mariners had a great opportunity to pick up, on average, a couple runs, and each time they found a way to come up empty. It's little wonder they have one of MLB's worst records.

- Jerry Hairston's caught stealing play was actually a blown bunt and run by Wade LeBlanc, who didn't get the bunt down. But for consistentcy's sake, I always score a CS in Net Runs against the runner regardless of the circumstances.

Here it still makes sense: Even a blown hit and run should be far closer than this play was, as Hairston was out by several yards. It's like Hairston changed his mind about going (probably not given Tony Gwynn Jr at 1st base was going, indicating a called double steal bunt and run), changed his mind again in a fraction of a second, and by the time he took off he got such a terrible jump he might as well have gone on contact as usual.

Whatever the case, Hairston timed the run so poorly that there was no saving that play.

- The National League's lack of a designated hitter creates some interesting game situations, as the pitcher is usually a terrible hitter and compels opposing managers to plan their in-game pitching strategy around the pitcher's spot in the lineup approaching.

That said, the intentional walk is usually not a good call statistically speaking, and Bud Black's decision to intentionally walk Rob Johnson with two outs and a man on 2nd in the 6th looked like a good decision with the pitcher Cliff Lee on deck. But a longer view of the situation shows that it probably was not.

Despite his double earlier in the game, Rob Johnson is not an effective hitter, and usually can be put out. Yes, with a man on 2nd going on contact, even a grounder into the outfield runs a significant risk of plating a run. The Pads had a 3-1 lead in their cavernous pitcher's park and the run expectancy in this situation at Petco Park is a mere 0.266 runs. Roughly a quarter of the time, the batting team gets a run or more in during this situation, and that's assuming they send a league average hitter (AL average: 261/332/410) to the plate. Rob Johnson (198/304/316) is decidedly below average as a hitter and not by any means a serious threat.

Even granted Rob's propensity for walks, if he does walk, that just puts him harmlessly at 1st base, leaving Mike Carp at 2B and raising the run expectancy to 0.374 runs... with the pitcher Cliff Lee coming up. Bud Black opted to take that situation in passing Rob Johnson intentionally, but facing Rob would have given his pitcher Wade LeBlanc a strong situation PLUS set up a strong situation for the 7th inning

In the 78-80% chance you get Rob Johnson out, the pitcher Cliff Lee (who likely finishes the bottom 6th against the Pads) is then due to lead off the 7th inning. Either the Mariners pull their dominant ace about 1-2 innings too early, easing up on your hitters as the M's go to their vulnerable bullpen... or in wanting another inning from Lee, the Mariners are forced to let him hit, most likely producing the 1st out and cutting their run expectancy in the 7th by nearly half: 0.380 runs with no outs and empty bases to 0.198 runs with one out and empty bases, undercutting their top 7th.

Black's decision helped get the Pads easily out of the 6th... but facing Johnson could have also gotten the Pads easily out of the 6th, while ALSO setting up an easy 7th inning, either for the defense as they likely pick up a quick out on the pitcher... or for the hitters if the M's lifted Lee for a pinch hitter, giving the Pads an easier pitch to face from the bottom 7th onward.

All this aside, the M's eventually imploded in the 8th with lots of help from bad defense and Oscar Salazar, rendering much of this moot. But Black's decision and the strategic implications provides an excellent look into how NL baseball differs from AL baseball, where the DH simplifies most managerial decision-making.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-11-2010 (San Diego 4, Seattle 3)

2010-06-11T23:51:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	1.048	-0.664	1.615	0.097	0.000	0.92	18
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-0.384	-0.384	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-1.123	-1.289	0.000	0.166	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-1.043	-0.474	0.000	-0.569	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.463	-0.829	0.000	1.292	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.275	0.511	0.000	-0.236	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	1.972	1.457	0.000	0.360	0.155	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.969	0.730	0.000	-1.699	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-1.922	0.178	0.000	-2.100	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-0.342	0.360	-0.702	0.000	0.000	11.96	2
SEA	Michael Saunders	-0.125	-0.125	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Shawn Kelley	0.865	0.000	0.865	0.000	0.000	-4.05	3
SEA	Brandon League	0.352	0.000	0.255	0.097	0.000	1.04	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.587	0.398	0.000	0.189	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.668	-0.084	-0.584	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SDP	Kevin Correia	-1.182	-1.061	-0.121	0.000	0.000	3.34	18
SDP	Nick Hundley	-1.865	-1.467	0.000	-0.398	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Adrian Gonzalez	0.653	0.822	0.000	0.000	-0.169	0.00	0
SDP	David Eckstein	-0.415	-0.076	0.000	-0.339	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chase Headley	0.498	-0.138	0.000	0.636	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Jerry Hairston	0.189	0.137	0.000	0.052	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Scott Hairston	2.102	-0.228	0.000	2.330	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Tony Gwynn	0.809	1.891	0.000	-1.082	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Chris Denorfia	-0.445	-0.077	0.000	-0.368	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Will Venable	0.360	0.360	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Joe Thatcher	0.019	0.000	0.019	0.000	0.000	3.01	3
SDP	Aaron Cunningham	-0.169	-0.169	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Ryan Webb	0.574	0.000	0.574	0.000	0.000	0.78	6
SDP	SDP Luckbox	1.042	0.958	0.000	0.084	0.000	0.00	0
SDP	Bud Black	-0.189	-0.189	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Petco Park	0.967	0.000	0.000	-0.967	0.000	0.00	0.380

Player of the Game: Scott Hairston (2.102 NRuns: -0.228 hitting, 2.330 fielding)
Padres Luckbox: 1.042 NRuns

Runs given away by Mariners intentional walks: 0.584

Mariners Player of the Game: Milton Bradley (1.972 NRuns: 1.457 hitting, 0.360 fielding, 0.155 running)

David Aardsma: -0.702 NRuns (11.96 EXERA)
Rest of Mariners pitching: 2.735 NRuns (2.75 EXERA)
Jason Vargas: 1.615 pitching NRuns (0.92 EXERA)

Mariners outfield defense: -3.439 NRuns

Goat: Ichiro (-1.922 NRuns: 0.178 hitting, -2.100 fielding)

******

You can't chalk David Aardsma's meltdown and eventual walkoff loss to bad luck: A leadoff line drive, a hit batter, a flyball and (following Wak's intentional walk call) the fatal flyball. Aardsma lives and dies on the edge with his wild and flyball prone pitching, and once again this time it killed the Mariners.

Ichiro is not the defender he used to be.

Milton Bradley's had games like this before only to disappear for yet another long stretch, but boy did he need the big game at the plate he had today: Three hits, including a home run.

Don't get too excited about Jason Vargas' great day. It was a truly good game, but line drives and walks in Petco Park tend to count for little damage since the park plays so well for pitchers. However, strikeouts with runners on are huge, and Vargas got two big ones in the bottom 4th with men on 2nd and 3rd (1.182 NRuns total) to get out of trouble.

On ideas about the 2011 Mariners

2010-06-10T23:29:00.000-07:00

Dave Cameron's piece on retooling for 2011 offered some interesting food for thought.

Dave proposed a couple of wire-level pickups:

Chris Resop: Yeah, he would be a great piece to pick up and test drive, but with the Braves leading the NL East and definitely looking at a postseason return, plus two late 30's pitchers in their rotation (Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami) coming with a significant non-zero injury risk, along with a converted reliever (Kris Medlen) filling in for a currently injured young starter (Jair Jurrjens) who was already struggling before his DL trip, and their other fringe rotation options struggling at AAA (Jo-Jo Reyes, James Parr)... what if the Braves consider Resop a valuable piece of rotation insurance?

They wouldn't need Resop as a starter in October with a playoff-shortened rotation. But if one of the old men hits the DL during the regular season, if Jurrjens doesn't get back up to speed and/or if Medlen comes back to Earth and looks more like a reliever-quality arm (or gets hurt himself), they might need Resop's arm in the rotation, and his excellent work in AAA probably isn't lost on the Braves front office even if he's not on their 25 man roster.

Resop has a clause in his contract that says he's got to get called up by 6/15 this season or get released. But with Jesse Chavez struggling in the Braves pen, no assurances that Cristhian Martinez will be a useful reliever over the long term, a host of young option-able arms in the pen that could possibly unravel, and the elephant in the room of the two veteran starters (Lowe and Kawakami) struggling, I'm not convinced the Braves consider Resop as disposable as he'd need to be to make for an easy flier pickup.

Kila Ka’aihue and Alex Gordon: Gordon is admittedly an if-pickup in Cameron's scenario, but his focus is on Ka'aihue, who is admittedly a more do-able pickup. The question is whether the Royals would be keen on unloading him for a low price. They didn't mind unloading Dan Cortes and Derrick Saito from their system for Yuniesky Betancourt, but Cortes and Saito were young pitchers in a system full of them.

Ka'aihue, even rotting away in AAA, could be of use to the Royals down the road, and is only blocked because of the likes of Billy Butler and Jose Guillen. Guillen's most likely gone after this season, which could open up a spot at 1B or DH. Kansas City's not the brightest bulb in the box when it comes to talent assembly but they have to be mindful that Ka'aihue could help their team next year. It's going to take a more valuable piece than just a junk prospect or two to pry him away.

Both proposed ideas are predicated on the acquisition pieces being disposable assets to their respective teams, but a closer look indicates they may not be as disposable as it currently seems.

******

As for re-tooling the roster... there are 15 potential spots for an upgrade, but many of them are easy to fill.

Despite the M's struggles with the bullpen this season, a good bullpen is fairly easy to assemble and re-tool: Between failed starters and relievers with a hot fastball or a single fine out pitch, a lot of league-minimum guys offer potential to fill the spot. You do what most teams do: Go get a bunch of arms, put the best ones on the 25 man and stash the rest in AAA in case the audition winners don't cut it and/or guys get hurt. Closer is not as difficult a role to fill as many think: Incumbent David Aardsma was a waiver trade pickup that won an open audition for the role in 2009. If you think you need to replace him, an open audition among 4-5 qualified relievers can easily produce a guy that can get three outs in the 9th with a 1-3 run lead 30-40 times in a year.

The bench is always easy to assemble because the sort of parts you need to fill it (backup catcher, modular infielder, modular outfielder, pinch hit bats) typically only need to be a bit better than AAAA quality and thus the roles are cheap and easy to fill. Thus of the 15 given question marks, eight should not be terribly difficult to fill or at least address with a workable solution that doesn't significantly hurt the team.

As for the rotation, if we buy the notion that true #5 starters don't exist (and I can), then you only really need to fill one of the two open rotation slots with a genuinely good pitcher. It depends on how short you think Jason Vargas and Doug Fister fall of filling the #3 slot in the rotation, if an audition for the #5 role doesn't somehow produce a superior candidate.

Really, you don't need five strong starting pitchers... probably one or two good to great pitchers, one or two decent/average/useful starters and then an okay guy to round out the 5 slot with the understanding that the owner of this slot can and probably will fluctuate. The need to fill two spots is predicated on thinking of Vargas and Fister as back-end or replacement level arms... and that depends on your impression of their work this season. I don't consider either one anything resembling an ace, but both can be and have been mostly reliable starters (Fister's shoulder fatigue notwithstanding). You can focus on upgrading one rotation slot and then, like the bench and bullpen, assemble an audition of talent to fill the #5 slot while stashing alternatives in AAA Tacoma (if the minor league system hasn't produced potential alternatives by then).

We can agree the lineup needs to be upgraded. One or two additional lineup upgrades isn't an impossibility. From there, if supply and money make upgrading other spots infeasible, you can take fliers on guys or have the incumbents continue in those roles until you can upgrade. The easiest spots to upgrade on this roster are catcher, 1B and DH. These spots can probably get upgraded at an affordable cost or even filled by flier-type acquisitions. Shortstop and 3B aren't going to be as easy to address: Good players at either position don't come cheap. How you fill LF depends on how much you value hitting and defense. An incumbent could fill the role provided his shortcomings aren't in an area you highly value.

So while the team has a lot of potential upgrade spots, the situation isn't as dire as it seems at first glance. Even if many of the 2010 underperformers can be expected to continue to underperform, a lot of the potential openings are fairly easy to fill, meaning the M's should be able to focus their resources on filling the other needed roles.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-10-2010 (Texas 12, Seattle 3)

2010-06-10T23:05:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-4.008	0.000	-4.008	0.000	0.000	11.09	17
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.229	-0.781	0.000	1.061	-0.509	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	-0.971	0.104	0.000	-1.075	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.585	1.341	0.000	-0.756	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	0.477	-1.131	0.000	1.608	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-3.642	-0.996	0.000	-2.646	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	1.798	0.489	0.000	1.309	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.263	-0.902	0.000	0.639	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.187	0.432	0.000	-0.352	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-1.486	-1.486	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Shawn Kelley	-0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000	0.000	7.73	3
SEA	Garrett Olson	0.154	0.000	0.154	0.000	0.000	3.90	3
SEA	Brandon League	0.064	0.000	0.064	0.000	0.000	3.59	1
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.734	0.734	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Tommy Hunter	-1.093	0.000	-1.093	0.000	0.000	6.71	18
TEX	Matt Treanor	0.043	0.150	0.000	-0.107	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	1.205	1.205	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	-2.018	-0.440	0.000	-0.672	-0.906	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	1.931	1.507	0.000	0.424	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	-0.026	-0.987	0.000	0.961	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	3.354	1.920	0.000	1.434	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	-1.104	1.209	0.000	-1.568	-0.745	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	2.293	0.329	0.000	1.857	0.107	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	2.102	2.102	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Frank Francisco	0.316	0.000	0.316	0.000	0.000	2.55	3
TEX	Darren O'Day	0.239	0.000	0.239	0.000	0.000	3.20	3
TEX	Darren Oliver	0.622	0.000	0.622	0.000	0.000	0.00	3
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.369	-0.369	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	-0.082	-0.267	0.000	0.185	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	-0.209	-0.209	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	TEX Luckbox	2.418	2.418	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	2.718	0.000	0.000	-2.718	0.000	0.00	0.622

Player of the Game: Josh Hamilton (3.354 NRuns: 1.920 hitting, 1.434 pitching)
Texas Luckbox: 2.418 NRuns

Rangers with more than 2.000 NRuns: 3 (Hamilton, Guerrero, Murphy)

Rob Johnson's defense: 1.061 NRuns
Josh Wilson's defense: -2.646 NRuns

Ichiro at DH: -1.486 NRuns

Mariners Player of the Game: Michael Saunders (1.798 NRuns: 0.489 hitting, 1.309 fielding)

Goat: Ryan Rowland-Smith (-4.008 pitching NRuns... 11.09 EXERA)

******

One item deserves comment: Brandon League's meltdown was not Brandon League's fault. Of the six batters he faced in his 4th run 6th inning appearance (after he entered with two outs), four hit groundballs, one struck out and one hit a line drive. And the line drive came after back to back to back groundballs, any of which could have been converted into the 3rd out to end the frame. Instead, Rangers batters reached on all three, two of which beat SS Josh Wilson.

For any and all help that Josh Wilson has provided at the plate, his defense at SS has been fairly bad, and Jack Wilson's return would likely upgrade the fielding at that position. Wilson is not a long term solution at SS, not because of his hitting (which it turns out might actually be useful) but because you don't want his relative lack of range at SS everyday if you're a defense-first team.

So in any case, many will point to this outing as a Brandon League meltdown, but Brandon League pitched fine. His defense let him down, and Ryan Rowland-Smith did far more to give the game away early with one of his worst pitching performances in what's been a pretty bad season for the embattled Aussie.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-9-2010 (Texas 12, Seattle 2)

2010-06-09T23:25:00.001-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ian Snell	-2.382	0.000	-2.686	0.304	0.000	18.63	5
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-3.391	-1.569	0.000	-1.822	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-0.228	0.421	0.000	-0.649	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.102	-0.570	0.000	0.468	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.305	0.289	0.000	-0.594	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	1.493	0.964	0.000	0.529	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-1.182	-0.757	0.000	-0.425	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-1.492	-1.075	0.000	-0.417	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.421	-0.405	0.000	0.826	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.190	0.154	0.000	0.000	-0.344	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	1.112	-0.870	0.000	1.982	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Luke French	-1.211	0.000	-1.211	0.000	0.000	7.08	16
SEA	Sean White	-0.749	0.000	-0.749	0.000	0.000	11.44	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.164	0.164	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	CJ Wilson	-3.571	0.000	-3.571	0.000	0.000	9.45	21
TEX	Max Ramirez	-0.957	-0.818	0.000	-0.165	0.026	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-0.928	-0.393	0.000	-0.535	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	2.205	1.873	0.000	0.332	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	1.664	1.664	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	-0.191	-1.295	0.000	1.104	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	2.056	2.256	0.000	-0.200	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	3.440	0.965	0.000	2.475	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	5.311	1.050	0.000	4.261	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	1.310	1.712	0.000	0.000	-0.402	0.00	0
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.286	-0.286	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	-0.209	-0.209	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	0.652	0.000	0.000	0.652	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Dustin Nippert	-1.209	0.000	-1.209	0.000	0.000	12.75	4
TEX	Neftali Feliz	0.454	0.000	0.454	0.000	0.000	-0.49	2
TEX	TEX Luckbox	0.881	0.881	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	2.580	0.000	0.000	-2.580	0.000	0.00	0.622

Player of the Game: David Murphy (5.311 NRuns: 1.050 hitiing, 4.261 fielding)

Josh Hamilton: 2.056 NRuns
Julio Borbon: 3.440 NRuns
Ian Kinsler: 2.205 NRuns
Michael Young: 1.664 NRuns
Vlad Guerrero: 1.310 NRuns

Rangers hitting: 6.519 NRuns
Rangers pitching: -4.326 NRuns

Mariners hitting: -3.418 NRuns
Mariners pitching: -4.646 NRuns
Mariners infield defense: -1.764 NRuns

Goat: Eliezer Alfonzo (-3.391 NRuns: -1.569 hitting, -1.822 catching)
Dishonorable mention: Ian Snell (-2.382 NRuns: -2.686 pitching, 18.63 EXERA, 0.304 fielding)

******

Dave Cameron's expecting a DFA for Ian Snell tomorrow morning, and... well... I can't really defend Snell at this point.

With Luke French looking fairly poor himself, I wonder who you would call up to replace Snell. Do you go with French in the rotation and maybe get another reliever (Brian Sweeney?). Do you go and get one of the other fringe starters (Chris Seddon, Steven Shell)?

Don't know, don't particularly care. This game sucked and this team sucks. Ryan Langerhans saved like two runs in the field during his two innings of work, though. All the good it did.

Last night, Stephen Strasburg assured he's going to be a disappointment

2010-06-09T12:15:00.000-07:00

... wait, what?

No, last night wasn't disappointing by any means. Last night a young and undisciplined Pittsburgh Pirates lineup spent seven innings getting played like a piano by Stephen Strasburg. And Strasburg didn't even get a lot of help from the home plate umpire, who was actually squeezing Strasburg on pitch calls quite a bit during the early innings. Strasburg got the Pirates to swing and miss pitches in the zone and got them to chase crisp breaking pitches out of the zone, ringing up 14 incredible strikeouts over 7 strong (to say the least) innings. Why would I claim disappointment is coming?

First, let's look down the road at his next potential outings.

- He's probably going to have another great game in 4 days at Cleveland during interleague play because the Indians are also awful.

- The White Sox come to DC after that, many of the ChiSox power bats are somewhat neutered outside of their bandbox home park and a lot of their mid-level bats are hackers.

- Then the Royals come to DC and the Nats will probably get him a home start versus yet another weak, hacktastic lineup.

- Then he goes to Atlanta's pitching friendly Turner Field and gets a relatively power-limp Braves lineup. It's here where he'll face his first actual test, as Atlanta currently leads the NL in walks plus has the 4th fewest strikeouts at the plate in the NL.

What's probably going to happen is Strasburg is going to throw two more terrific games, possibly a third against a somewhat respected (read: overrated) ChiSox lineup, building his already bloated hype machine as he did pitching against weakish Mountain West lineups in San Diego State's very pitcher-friendly home park during college.

But we're not going to see how relatively good Strasburg is until he offers his stuff to real, average-level MLB lineups laden with selective hitters, and he's not going to see one until he faces the Braves late this month.

The Nats planned the timing of his debut perfectly. The timing wasn't so much about starting his service time clock at the right time or controlling arb years, because they're just going to buy those out in a couple years by offering him a ridiculous contract to lock him up through his prime, as other teams have with their young phenoms (like Justin Upton with the D-Backs and Evan Longoria with the Rays). It wasn't even about ensuring several home starts: That could have been timed on several occasions during this season, and if it was about maximizing gate revenue they would have added him to the roster a month or two ago. Strasburg's hype would have assured a sellout in early April.

No, Washington's timing of Strasburg's debut was about ensuring his first starts came against crappy, beatable lineups that were easy for a talented pitcher to dominate. Instead of throwing him to the wolves and risking an up and down beginning that would undercut the hype around their now-franchise pitcher, they give him the best chance to come out looking dominant and make him look every bit like the pitcher he was hyped by everyone in the media, scouting community and blogosphere to be.

So how is he going to disappoint people? Pretty simple. As the season wears on, other teams are going to assemble scouting data on Strasburg, figure out how to attack him and maximize their chances of hitting and getting on base against him. Last night the Pirates were mostly blind squirrels, in part because they hadn't really seen Strasburg before and in part because, well, most of them aren't very disciplined hitters. Cleveland's hitters will likely suffer the same fate, as will Kansas City's.

Some of Atlanta's players will run into the same problem: Their rookie phenom Jason Heyward has struck out in over 21% of his plate appearances, not terrible but indicative that a deceptive power pitcher like Strasburg could own him. Veteran Troy Glaus has struck out in 20% of his PAs. If Nate McLouth (22% K's) plays, he could get owned. But everyone else in that lineup is fairly good at working the count AND avoiding the K. The key will be if Strasburg can induce a ton of groundballs if he doesn't rack up the K's.

And from there, Strasburg's opposition will get tougher. He gets the Mets at home to start July, and while they struggled early this season, they've got some good veteran hitters (David Wright, Jose Reyes, a surging Angel Pagan... and they might get Carlos Beltran back) that have seen the likes of power pitchers like Strasburg before and aren't going to be intimidated. Ditto with the Giants, who don't exactly have a vaunted lineup but do have a lineup of disciplined, productive veteran hitters (Bengie Molina, Juan Uribe, Aaron Rowand, Aubrey Huff et al) that aren't going to surrender like the Pirates did yesterday.

The tradeoff of the Nats giving Strasburg a soft landing is that, in dominating weaker lineups, Strasburg's going to elevate expectations so high that even if he does alright against better lineups and/or lineups that know when to attack him and when to back off, it's going to be deflating for fans when those outings aren't ownership-claiming 14 strikeout outings. That isn't fair, because Strasburg again could be effective against better lineups, but he will rarely if ever again be as good as he was yesterday and likely will be during his first 3-4 Major League starts.

Stephen Strasburg is good. Unfortunately, last night didn't tell us too much about exactly HOW good he is, other than he can dominate bad, intimidated lineups. A lot of good pitchers can dominate bad, intimidated lineups. Let's see how many batters Stephen Strasburg strikes out once the book's out on him and he's facing good MLB hitters that can get around on a 98 mph fastball and take pitches out of the zone. If he strikes out 14 batters against a lineup like the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals or L.A. Dodgers, then I'll cream my pants with the rest of the saber-fanboys. But I doubt he's going to do that well even in his prime. He might have more days like yesterday... if he faces more bad, dominable lineups like that Pirates lineup.

Meanwhile, I don't foresee him throwing every start as good as that debut, which went as perfectly as the Nats could have hoped... mainly because of how well they timed his debut and who they threw him against. And now that Strasburg's shown people a performance beyond many's wild imaginations, he's ensured he'll never live up to the hype that casual fans have bought into. What we saw last night, and what we may see over the next 2-3 starts, is an exceptional deviation from what he will bring to the table.

That is, unless...

a) Umpires bring the LeBron Rule to MLB, and start giving him superstar strike calls on pitches off the plate to help appease the hype MLB and the media have placed on him. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens and many other stars can thank umpires for a few hundred extra career strikeouts netted in part from marginally wider star pitcher strike zones.

b) He gets hurt. Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets... many a phenom came out of the gates fast only to stumble headlong into obscurity once the injuries piled up. We have no assurance Strasburg will remain healthy and sharp even if the Nats are careful about deploying him.

Or...

c) He gets hit in one or more of his next three starts, which should in itself bring expectations back to Earth. (I'm not expecting it, though)

Anyway, I wouldn't pencil in Strasburg for 470 strikeouts a year. Or even 300. Let's see him strike out a few lineups with guys like Chase Utley and Manny Ramirez first... or at least a few lineups with better hitters than Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones.

In all likelihood, however, he's never going to be as good as he was last night, not over 32-34 starts a season. Analysts certainly wouldn't expect that, but a lot of casual fans might. And they're in for a letdown, even if Strasburg goes on to a Hall of Fame career.

Also, check out the Net Runs data for Strasburg's debut.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-8-2010 (Texas 7, Seattle 1)

2010-06-08T23:43:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	-0.621	0.000	-0.621	0.000	0.000	6.05	18
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.071	1.169	0.000	0.000	-1.098	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	-0.658	-1.519	0.000	0.861	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.732	-0.346	0.000	-0.386	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.904	-0.071	0.000	-0.833	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.435	-1.296	0.000	0.861	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-2.584	-0.332	0.000	-2.386	0.134	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.479	0.582	0.000	0.866	0.031	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.321	-1.317	0.000	0.996	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-1.280	-1.280	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Garrett Olson	0.200	0.000	0.200	0.000	0.000	3.52	3
SEA	Chad Cordero	-0.112	0.000	-0.112	0.000	0.000	6.12	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.745	0.745	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Colby Lewis	-1.174	0.000	-1.200	0.026	6.62	21
TEX	Max Ramirez	0.404	-0.560	0.000	0.964	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	2.590	1.390	0.000	1.200	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	0.314	-0.243	0.000	0.557	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	-1.210	-1.210	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Elvis Andrus	1.555	1.865	0.000	-0.310	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	1.683	1.603	0.000	0.080	0.00	0
TEX	Julio Borbon	1.270	-1.284	0.000	2.554	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	0.595	0.315	0.000	0.280	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	-0.008	-0.008	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.369	-0.369	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Chris Ray	0.131	0.000	0.131	0.000	4.10	3
TEX	Darren O'Day	0.316	0.000	0.316	0.000	2.55	3
TEX	TEX Luckbox	0.525	0.525	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	1.470	0.000	0.000	-1.470	0.00	0.622

Player of the Game: Justin Smoak (2.590 NRuns: 1.390 hitting, 1.200 fielding)
Rangers with over 1.000 NRuns: 4 (Smoak, Andrus, Hamilton, Borbon)
Rangers defense: 5.351 NRuns

Mariners defnese: -0.021 NRuns
Positive Mariners contributions: 3 (Johnson, Gutierrez, Olson)
Negative Mariners contributions: 10

Goat: Michael Saunders (-2.584 NRuns: -0.332 hitting, -2.386 fielding, 0.134 running)

******

This was a "Just in case you thought Cliff Lee's complete game gave the M's any momentum" game.

One note about this game: Felix's first five innings were TERRIFIC. Felix saved about 1.904 NRuns (2.17 EXERA) through five... and then the wheels flew right off in the 6th: A hit batter, a walk and three line drives in a three run inning for the Rangers. Saunders getting played like a piano on that two out two run double by Elvis Andrus sure didn't help, but it's like Felix just flipped a switch before the top 6th and became a tomato can. Usually the M's watch the bullpen blow games... it's not everyday that a top starter like Felix would come out and blow his own game by himself.

Whether or not it worked yesterday, hitting Milton Bradley 2nd sure didn't work today (-1.280 hitting NRuns), but then again nobody for the M's (save for Franklin Gutierrez, and Rob Johnson of all people) was hitting today. Mike Carp (-1.519), Josh Wilson (-1.296) and Ichiro (-1.317) also had notably bad days at the plate.

Factoids on the first four rounds of the MLB draft

2010-06-08T12:15:00.000-07:00

1. Since drafting Joe Mauer 1st overall in 2001 the Minnesota Twins have had 16 1st round selections thanks to Type A and B compensation, and have whiffed on all but two of those: Only Denard Span (2002), Matt Garza (2005) and Glen Perkins (2004) have seen serious time in the Majors. Perkins turned out rather ordinary while Garza didn't hit his stride until he was traded to Tampa Bay and only now is Span paying dividends after a ton of time in the minors.

Even the woebegone Pirates, notorious for whiffing on high picks, managed to get six of their picks in the 2000's to the bigs, and once Brad Lincoln gets an expected callup sometime this year that will make it seven.

2. In back to back years, the Yankees drafted players in the 2nd round who didn't sign and went on to prominent football careers. In 1981 they burned their 2nd rounder on an OF named John Elway, and in 1982 they spent a 2nd round pick on a high school SS named Bo Jackson. The latter of course comes with an obvious caveat: Bo Jackson would become a two sport star at Auburn University and eventually get drafted in the 4th round of the 1986 draft by the Kansas City Royals, going on to a famous dual career with the Royals and football's Los Angeles Raiders.

3. You'd be hard pressed to find a team that drafted more MLB value in the 3rd round than the Texas Rangers, but sadly most of that value paid off for other teams.

Dean Palmer (1986) would go on to a solid career with the Detroit Tigers. Scott Podsednik (1994) would eventually break in with the Mariners, see his first regular action with the Brewers and go on to win a World Series with the White Sox. Ryan Dempster (1995) broke in with the Marlins and has since gone on to a productive career with the Cubs. And their biggest 3rd round prize, Barry Zito (1998), did most of his damage as a star for the rival Oakland Athletics.

The only 3rd rounder the Rangers picked who became a solid player under their watch? Darren Oliver (1988) became a productive pitcher for them during the 1990's, and at age 39 is coincidentally with them today as their top lefthanded reliever.

4. The 4th round is where the percentage of eventual MLBers really drops. But the Angels had the most prolific stretch of 4th rounders prior to 1996, producing 16 players that would eventually reach the bigs out of 30 4th round selections. Key regulars from this stretch included catcher Brian Harper, pitchers Mike Witt and Kirk McCaskill, and LF Garret Anderson. But since 1995, only one of their 4th round picks has reached the bigs, and the one that did got away: Brian Matusz passed on the Angels offer, went to college and eventually got drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in 2008.

Prolifically barren histories include the aforementioned Pirates, who of their 45 selections only produced 8 players who eventually saw MLB time, and of those eight only Jeff Keppinger (2001), Wes Chamberlain (1987) and pitcher Stew Cliburn (1977) would become MLB regulars for any real length of time. The Brewers only produced 7 major leaguers from 43 picks, and none of those picks produced more than 0.5 WAR over their careers. Granted, one of those MLBers was the late Josh Hancock, who died in a car wreck very early in his career with the Cardinals, and the jury's out on 2005 pick Mat Gamel.

The greatest 4th round pick of all time had to come from the Oakland A's in 1976, when they burned the 96th overall pick on a local outfielder from Technical HS named Rickey Henderson.

The Dodgers had the most interesting stretch of 4th rounders. After drafting eventual catcher Steve Yeager in 1967, the Dodgers had 19 consecutive 4th round picks between 1970-1989 that never played a game in the big leagues. Following that, 9 of their next 13 4th round selections would go on to play in the Majors, though none ever became a productive regular. Since 2003 none of their 4th rounders have reached the Majors.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-7-2010 (Seattle 4, Texas 2)

2010-06-07T23:23:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	2.510	0.000	3.035	-0.525	0.000	2.38	27
SEA	Rob Johnson	1.031	1.031	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Carp	0.261	-0.163	0.000	0.424	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-2.269	0.454	0.000	-2.214	-0.509	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-2.014	-0.380	0.000	-1.125	-0.509	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.812	-0.497	0.000	1.309	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	1.975	1.210	0.000	0.765	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.418	-1.269	0.000	0.851	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.537	-0.482	0.000	0.912	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.627	-0.627	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.166	0.000	0.000	0.166	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.298	0.298	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.262	-0.262	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TEX	Scott Feldman	-1.291	0.000	-1.457	0.166	0.000	7.33	17
TEX	Matt Treanor	-0.478	-1.389	0.000	0.911	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Joaquin Arias	-0.863	-0.622	0.000	-0.241	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ian Kinsler	0.617	-0.052	0.000	0.669	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Michael Young	0.490	-0.481	0.000	0.766	0.205	0.00	0
TEX	Andres Blanco	-0.623	-0.078	0.000	-0.545	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Craig Gentry	-0.150	-0.479	0.000	0.329	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Josh Hamilton	1.165	-0.020	0.000	1.185	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	David Murphy	0.005	-0.380	0.000	0.385	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Vladimir Guerrero	-0.783	-0.783	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Justin Smoak	-0.044	-0.044	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Matt Harrison	1.327	0.000	0.345	0.982	0.000	4.33	10
TEX	TEX Luckbox	0.787	0.525	0.000	0.262	0.000	0.00	0
TEX	Ron Washington	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Rangers Ballpark	2.159	0.000	0.000	-2.159	0.000	0.00	0.622

How Net Runs works

Player of the Game: Cliff Lee (2.510 NRuns: 3.035 pitching, -0.525 fielding... 2.38 EXERA)

Honorable mention: Michael Saunders (1.975 NRuns: 1.210 hitting, 0.765 fielding)

Mariners defense: 0.563 NRuns
Mariners hitting: -0.723 NRuns
Mariners baserunning: -0.911 NRuns
Cliff Lee's pitching: 3.035 NRuns

Josh Hamilton: 1.165 NRuns
Rest of Rangers lineup: -1.829 NRuns

Goats?

Chone Figgins (-2.269 NRuns: 0.454 hitting, -2.214 fielding, -0.509 running)
Jose Lopez (-2.014 NRuns: -0.380 hitting, -1.125 fielding, -0.509 running)

******

This may be Cliff Lee's best performance of the season, shaking off some defensive miscues and throwing a complete game in one of MLB's offensive launchpads against a strong Texas Rangers lineu- okay fine they started Joaquin Arias, Andres Blanco and Craig Gentry today, but still. Conditions were ripe for a tough outing and Lee instead pitched arguably his best game of the season.

His best innings had to be the 4th (1.117 NRuns), where he went groundball, strikeout, strikeout, groundball, groundball to shake off two groundball singles and not allow any damage... and the 9th and final inning (0.959 NRuns), where he got five groundballs, a harmless flyout and a pop out to end the game. His only real blemish was the line drive that ended the 6th... a line drive that found SS Josh Wilson for the 3rd out.

Masterful performance, Cliff Lee.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-6-2010 (Anaheim 9, Seattle 4)

2010-06-06T22:13:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Joel Pineiro	-0.594	0.000	-0.343	-0.251	0.000	4.69	18
ANA	Mike Napoli	2.888	2.888	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Robb Quinlan	1.048	0.713	0.000	0.335	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	-0.404	-0.752	0.000	0.348	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kevin Frandsen	-0.875	-0.875	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	0.653	1.655	0.000	-1.161	0.159	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	0.903	0.109	0.000	0.794	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Torii Hunter	0.192	-0.094	0.000	0.286	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	-1.382	-1.839	0.000	0.457	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	0.389	0.389	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Fernando Rodney	-0.187	0.000	-0.187	0.000	0.000	5.77	3
ANA	Francisco Rodriguez	0.771	0.000	0.474	0.297	0.000	0.26	3
ANA	Kevin Jepsen	0.283	0.000	0.283	0.000	0.000	1.85	3
ANA	ANA Luckbox	2.102	2.102	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	-0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	-1.556	0.000	-1.399	-0.157	0.000	6.16	18
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-0.312	-0.312	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.576	-0.741	0.000	0.165	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.347	0.408	0.000	0.000	-0.755	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.686	1.155	0.000	-1.841	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.796	0.533	0.000	0.263	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.319	-0.304	0.000	0.623	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.852	-0.865	0.000	2.717	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	3.427	1.189	0.000	2.238	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.358	-0.358	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Brandon League	0.500	0.000	0.500	0.000	0.000	0.04	3
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-1.660	-0.689	0.000	-0.971	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-1.356	0.000	-1.356	0.000	0.000	21.18	2
SEA	Luke French	-0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000	0.000	14.75	1
SEA	Shawn Kelley	-1.935	0.000	-1.935	0.000	0.000	28.43	2
SEA	Garrett Olson	-0.708	0.000	-0.708	0.000	0.000	21.93	1
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.194	0.194	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	2.766	0.000	0.000	-2.766	0.000	0.00	0.505

How Net Runs works

(Note the new number in the lower right corner of the home team table. This is the run expectancy for every half inning in the home park.)

Player of the Game: Ichiro (3.427 NRuns: 1.189 hitting, 2.238 fielding)
Mariners pitching: -5.319 NRuns
Mariners below -1.000 NRuns: 4 (Vargas, Tuiasosopo, Aardsma, Kelley)

Goat: Shawn Kelley (-1.935 pitching NRuns... 28.43 EXERA)

I will not dignify this effort with descriptive or analytical text.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-5-2010 (Anaheim 11, Seattle 2)

2010-06-05T23:00:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Ervin Santana	1.040	0.000	-0.498	1.538	0.000	4.91	18
ANA	Bobby Wilson	-1.140	-0.738	0.000	-0.402	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Napoli	-0.091	-0.343	0.000	0.220	0.032	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	1.223	1.460	0.000	-0.237	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Maicer Izturis	1.499	2.058	0.000	-0.559	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	0.186	-0.341	0.000	0.527	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	1.442	0.754	0.000	0.905	-0.217	0.00	0
ANA	Torii Hunter	3.407	3.158	0.000	0.249	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	1.520	0.940	0.000	0.580	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	-0.870	-0.870	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Kevin Frandsen	0.750	0.389	0.000	0.361	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Robb Quinlan	-0.217	-0.169	0.000	-0.048	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Reggie Willits	-0.098	-0.098	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Jason Bulger	0.497	0.000	0.497	0.000	0.000	2.14	6
ANA	Scot Shields	-0.808	0.000	-0.808	0.000	0.000	10.95	3
ANA	ANA Luckbox	0.660	0.440	0.000	0.220	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-1.484	0.000	-1.484	0.000	0.000	6.69	15
SEA	Rob Johnson	0.642	0.562	0.000	0.080	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	0.260	-0.607	0.000	0.867	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.662	1.338	0.000	0.924	-0.600	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-2.151	-1.794	0.000	-0.357	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-2.773	-0.463	0.000	-2.310	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.796	-0.908	0.000	2.059	-0.355	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-1.178	-1.485	0.000	0.200	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	0.141	1.380	0.000	-1.239	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.160	-0.297	0.000	0.000	0.137	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.440	0.440	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Garrett Olson	-0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000	0.000	7.97	1
SEA	Shawn Kelley	-3.092	0.000	-3.092	0.000	0.000	81.60	1
SEA	Sean White	-1.416	0.000	-1.416	0.000	0.000	13.07	4
SEA	Brandon League	-0.376	0.000	-0.376	0.000	0.000	7.35	3
SEA	Chad Cordero	0.142	0.000	0.142	0.000	0.000	3.03	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	-0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Torii Hunter (3.407 NRuns: 3.158 hitting, 0.249 fielding)

Angels with over 1.000 NRuns: 6 (Santana, Hunter, Kendrick, Izturis, Rivera, Abreu)
Angels hitting: 6.200 NRuns

Mariners worse than -1.000 NRuns: 6
Mariners pitching: -6.376 NRuns
Mariners hitting: -1.834 NRuns

Goat: Shawn Kelley (-3.092 pitching NRuns, 81.60 EXERA)

I'd credit Chone Figgins for Mariners player of the game honors, except go figure he did a lot of his damage in garbage time. Of course.

Ryan Rowland-Smith's first two innings were good. It was the other three that needed some polish. Of course, that's nothing compared to the middle relief, which needs to be amputated.

Quick and Dirty 2010 World Cup projections

2010-06-05T21:15:00.000-07:00

These projections are based on nothing more than Massey Ratings and other basic knowledge of the FIFA pecking order. As with any projections, these are simple percentage-based projections and as always numerous variables can change the projected outcome. But yeah, it's Spain's World Cup to lose ;P

Group Play. In the event of ties for the 2nd qualification spot in a group, obviously the selected team is projected to have a greater overall goal differential.

Group A:

Mexico (3) over South Africa
France (1) and Uruguay (1) draw
Uruguay (4) over South Africa
Mexico (4) and France (2) draw
Uruguay (5) and Mexico (5) draw
France (5) over South Africa

Qualifiers: Uruguay and France

Group B:

Argentina (3) over Nigeria
South Korea (3) over Greece
Nigeria (1) and Greece (1) draw
Argentina (6) over South Korea (3)
South Korea (6) over Nigeria (1)
Argentina (9) over Greece (1)

Qualifiers: Argentina and South Korea

Group C:

England (3) over United States
Slovenia (3) over Algeria
Slovenia (4) and United States (1) draw
England (6) over Algeria
England (9) over Slovenia (4)
United States (4) over Algeria

Qualifiers: England and United States

Group D:

Germany (3) over Australia
Serbia (3) over Ghana
Germany (6) over Serbia (3)
Australia (3) over Ghana
Germany (9) over Ghana
Australia (4) and Serbia (4) draw

Qualifiers: Germany and Serbia

Group E:

Netherlands (3) over Denmark
Japan (1) and Cameroon (1) draw
Netherlands (6) over Japan (1)
Denmark (3) over Cameroon (1)
Denmark (6) over Japan (1)
Netherlands (9) over Cameroon (1)

Qualifiers: Netherlands and Denmark

Group F:

Italy (3) over Paraguay
New Zealand (1) and Slovakia (1) draw
Paraguay (3) over Slovakia (1)
Italy (6) over New Zealand (1)
Italy (9) over Slovakia (1)
Paraguay (6) over New Zealand (1)

Qualifiers: Italy and Paraguay

Group G:

Portugal (3) over Cote d'Ivoire
Brazil (3) over North Korea
Brazil (6) over Cote d'Ivoire
Portugal (6) over North Korea
Cote d'Ivoire (3) over North Korea
Brazil (9) over Portugal (6)

Qualifiers: Brazil and Portugal

Group H:

Chile (3) over Honduras
Spain (3) over Switzerland
Chile (6) over Switzerland
Spain (6) over Honduras
Honduras (1) and Switzerland (1) draw
Spain (9) over Chile (6)

Qualifiers: Spain and Chile

Elimination matches. Asterisks note projections of doubt. These matches are very close and a break here or there would easily sway the outcome the other way, not to mention the variables in extra time and penalty kicks.

2nd round:

Uruguay over South Korea*
England over Serbia
Netherlands over Paraguay
Brazil over Chile
Argentina over France
Germany over United States
Italy over Denmark*
Spain over Portugal

Quarterfinals:

England over Uruguay
Brazil over Netherlands
Germany over Argentina*
Spain over Italy

Semifinals:

Brazil over England*
Spain over Germany

Final:

Spain over Brazil*

Brief thoughts:

- Host country South Africa will not only get shut out in Group A play, they probably won't even score a goal. They, however, won't finish 32nd of the 32 teams: North Korea has no business in this tournament and their best chance at scoring a goal (not winning: They have little to no chance of even drawing any of their matches) will be their Group G final with Cote d'Ivoire. But there's about a 50/50 chance they don't score in that match either: Cote d'Ivoire, meanwhile, has a reasonable shot at 2 goals in that match, and they're not particularly good themselves. North Korea is just that bad.

- Cameroon, a favorite pick to make it out of Group E, will likely draw with Japan, will be lucky to earn a draw with Denmark (but is likely to lose) and probably won't score against the Netherlands, but will definitely give up at least a goal and maybe 2. In other words, advancement not likely.

- Brazil and Argentina aren't going to be the only South American teams in the 2nd round. Chile and Paraguay should easily make it out of their groups, albeit as the 2nd team in both cases. Paraguay can easily beat Slovakia and New Zealand in Group F, while Chile should have little trouble with Honduras and Switzerland in Group H.

- The U.S. has little margin for error but they can probably get out of Group C as the #2 team. They will probably draw with Slovenia, and if they hold serve by beating Algeria they will probably get into the 2nd round not by goal differential but by goals scored. They have a better offense than Slovenia.

- South Africa aside, Group A has a serious chance of ending with three teams at 5 points. Uruguay, France and Mexico are all good teams that could play each other to a stalemate, which I suppose makes this the 2010 World Cup's edition of the Group of Death. Uruguay has the best offense of the three and one of the better defenses in Group A. France's offense is the least of the three but their defense is best in the group. Mexico's weaker defense could leave them as the odd team out, especially if they continue their World Cup tradition of coddling the ball and playing keep away for 90+ minutes: They don't have the defensive team to make that strategy work this year.

Net Runs Special, 5-5-2010: The game that incurred Bruce Drennan's wrath (Toronto 5, Cleveland 4)

2010-06-05T12:11:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
TOR	Brandon Morrow	-0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000	0.000	5.39	16
TOR	Jose Molina	0.875	0.875	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Lyle Overbay	-1.230	-0.786	0.000	0.075	-0.519	0.00	0
TOR	Aaron Hill	-0.251	-1.591	0.000	1.340	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Jose Bautista	-1.065	-0.255	0.000	-0.810	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Alex Gonzalez	-0.023	-0.646	0.000	0.623	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Fred Lewis	1.045	0.689	0.000	0.356	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Vernon Wells	1.274	0.326	0.000	0.838	0.110	0.00	0
TOR	Travis Snider	-0.469	-0.198	0.000	-0.303	0.032	0.00	0
TOR	Adam Lind	1.608	1.818	0.000	0.000	-0.210	0.00	0
TOR	Jason Frasor	0.391	0.000	0.391	0.000	0.000	1.65	4
TOR	Shawn Camp	0.089	0.000	0.089	0.000	0.000	2.98	2
TOR	Mike McCoy	-0.089	-0.320	0.000	0.231	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	John Buck	-0.164	-0.164	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Rommie Lewis	-0.627	0.000	-0.627	0.000	0.000	7.24	5
TOR	TOR Luckbox	1.420	1.420	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
TOR	Cito Gaston	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
CLE	Fausto Carmona	-2.049	0.000	-2.552	0.503	0.000	7.46	19
CLE	Mike Redmond	0.902	0.902	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Russell Branyan	0.842	-0.007	0.000	0.849	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Mark Grudzielanek	-1.668	-1.710	0.000	0.516	-0.474	0.00	0
CLE	Jhonny Peralta	-0.041	-1.338	0.000	1.297	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Luis Valbuena	0.706	0.722	0.000	-0.016	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Matt LaPorta	0.404	0.975	0.000	-0.571	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Grady Sizemore	-0.311	-0.018	0.000	-0.293	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Travis Hafner	1.727	0.733	0.000	0.994	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Shin,Soo Choo	-0.001	-0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Tony Sipp	0.977	0.000	0.977	0.000	0.000	-4.05	3
CLE	Chris Perez	-0.332	0.000	-0.332	0.000	0.000	5.76	5
CLE	Austin Kearns	0.117	0.117	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Lou Marson	-0.430	-0.320	0.000	-0.110	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	CLE Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
CLE	Manny Acta	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Progressive Field	2.803	0.000	0.000	-2.803	0.000	0.00	0

Here is the text of Bruce Drennan's epic rant, and I'll include contextual Net Runs data in the transcript when applicable:

We stink, man. Ah... I thought Carmona... he wasn't GREAT (-2.552 NRuns)... but he certainly pitched well enough to WIN, considering (his team saved a couple runs for him and scored 4)....

Oh, Valbuena! Valbuena, Valbuena, Valbuena (-1.420 NRuns from two errors in 9th)... you know what? Give him back to the Mets, man (actually he came from the Mariners in the Franklin Gutierrez trade, though the Mets were involved in that trade). You know, somebody said he should be in Columbus tonight. I said... send him to Mahoning Valley. He can't do any harm there! They haven't even started their season!!

Oh! Ugh! Painful. Uh... Branyan (-0.007 hitting Runs). Here it is. Here's his stroke. [simulates slow, graceful left handed swing of bat] Beautfiul form [repeats]... IF IT'S A PRACTICE SWING ON THE FIRST TEE! [repeats] Let's pretend I'm a ballerina.

Unbelieveable! Oh! And Peralta... oh God (-1.338 hitting NRuns). Oh... oh... I am in such pain, PAIN I SAY. Oh, I have pain in my side on this side, I have pain in my side on this side, my knees hurt, my elbow hurts like LeBron, most of all my head hurts, my psyche's hurt, I'm hurting all over my body, head to toe. Ohhh God. WE STINK. STINK.

And I'll tell you something else... the starting pitching has been pretty good, pretty good. Just think if they go South... with this... Big Red Machine of the mid 70's lineup that we got (0.055 NRuns today). Just think if that starting rotation goes sour- which has been pretty good, including today (again, no). Just think of that. Ohh! Oh!

Peralta... OHH!! you know, I'll give him credit (1.297 fielding NRuns)... he made two... outstanding defensive plays- which I was in awe of, I mean, I couldn't... the play he made by the dugout (0.584 NRuns) there by the stands was truly a tremendous play. I... if you would have said to me, is he capable of making that play- I would have obviously said no. I'm just thinking what odds- you know All Bets Are Off here, but what odds would I give you that he would make that play, I mean, you're getting the point... I mean, give credit where it's due (Tony Sipp actually got credited for the NRuns on that play as it was a pop up). He made that play and he made that line drive, that great play on that line drive too (1.222 NRuns for that play, coming with men on the corners and one out).

But 0 or 5 for Peralta- including at the end of the game when we actually had a shot at the bottom of the 9th inning to tie it up after the disaster in the top of the 9th*!!! Unbelieveable! Peralta, a .216 after- even after he got a home run and IT'S ABOUT TIME... 212. Sizemore, 220. OH. Uh, Branyan [repeats Branyan swing]... .212.

(* - Chris Perez: -0.851 NRuns that frame, 12.08 EXERA. Valbuena: -0.570 NRuns at SS that inning. Toronto Luckbox: 1.420 NRuns. Cleveland lost a 4-2 lead in the 9th and the 5-4 deficit would eventually be the final.)

LaPorta, OH MY (-0.571 fielding NRuns)- How about the play by LaPorta in Left Field (-0.796 NRuns)? Chuck Miller... I've known Chuck- he was the official scorer today. I've known Chuck for decades... greta guy, good baseball man and a good official scorer. Uh, a writer... for many many many years, good baseball man. Ahem... I'm all choked up here... uh... he was wrong on that play. That can't be a triple THAT CAN'T BE A TRIPLE IT CAN'T BE A TRIPLE THAT'S AN ERROR ON LAPORTA I DON'T CARE WHAT ANYBODY SAYS. THAT'S AN ERROR ON LAPORTA. Turning around like this it's like in my swivel chair here!

(Net Runs, of course, credited LaPorta in full for the gaffe regardless, while Carmona got -0.040 for allowing a flyball. However, Jose Bautista got a 0.836 NRun gift for hitting what was probably a flyout)

My God, did anybody remind these players who are making millions of dollars... even the kids are making four, five, six hundred thousand dollars, you know. That's a lot of money! That's even more than (the producer) Gene makes. Did anybody remind them this is the Major Leagues? Did anybody remind them this is the Major Leagues?

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-4-2010 (Anaheim 7, Seattle 1)

2010-06-05T10:53:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	EXERA	PitOuts
ANA	Joe Saunders	-1.874	0.000	-1.989	0.115	6.98	18
ANA	Mike Napoli	-1.584	-1.477	0.000	-0.107	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Ryan	0.150	0.150	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Howie Kendrick	1.563	0.686	0.000	0.877	0.00	0
ANA	Maicer Izturis	1.302	0.775	0.000	0.527	0.00	0
ANA	Erick Aybar	0.370	-0.309	0.000	0.679	0.00	0
ANA	Hideki Matsui	3.964	3.238	0.000	0.726	0.00	0
ANA	Torii Hunter	0.017	-0.376	0.000	0.393	0.00	0
ANA	Juan Rivera	1.755	0.248	0.000	1.507	0.00	0
ANA	Bobby Abreu	-0.183	-0.183	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Trevor Bell	0.317	0.000	0.317	0.000	2.89	6
ANA	Francisco Rodriguez	0.500	0.000	0.500	0.000	0.04	3
ANA	Reggie Willits	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Robb Quinlan	-0.324	-0.324	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	ANA Luckbox	0.027	0.027	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
ANA	Mike Scoiscia	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Ian Snell	-2.136	0.000	-2.136	0.000	0.000	7.55	16
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-0.382	-0.462	0.000	-0.027	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-0.771	0.150	0.000	-0.921	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-1.544	-0.893	0.000	0.217	-0.868	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.341	-0.460	0.000	0.119	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	-0.689	-0.603	0.000	0.131	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	-0.095	-0.965	0.000	0.870	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.259	-0.088	0.000	0.347	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	2.754	1.629	0.000	1.018	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-1.014	-1.014	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chad Cordero	-0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000	0.000	5.65	3
SEA	Garrett Olson	0.228	0.000	0.228	0.000	0.000	3.26	6
SEA	Sean White	0.138	0.000	0.138	0.000	0.000	2.49	2
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.252	0.032	0.000	0.220	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	2.487	0.000	0.000	-2.487	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Hideki Matsui (3.964 NRuns: 3.238 hitting, 0.726 fielding)
Positive Angels contributions: 9
Negative Angels contributions: 4

Positive Mariners contributions: 4 (2 from the last two relievers once the game was out of reach)
Negative Mariners contributions: 9

Ichiro: 2.754 NRuns (1.629 hitting, 1.018 fielding, 0.107 running)
Rest of Mariners: -6.519 NRuns

Goat: Ian Snell (-2.136 pitching NRuns... 7.55 EXERA)

******

So with yet another game out of reach, Wak emptied the back of the bullpen to test drive new arrivals Chad Cordero and Garrett Olson, plus see if pet reliever Sean White had shown any progress from his brief time in Tacoma. Sure enough, Sean White is still hittable, Chad Cordero is still a hittable flyballer (and many have no idea how well old RFK Stadium masked that weakness when Cordero closed for the Nats years ago, but that's another story), and Garrett Olson allowed two flyballs and a grounder to three batters. You're never going to learn too much in mop-up time as the other side's typically going through the motions, but there you go. The M's needed extra arms for a rough stretch of games, and discovered that the new arrivals aren't particularly good. Are we sure adding Brian Sweeney from Tacoma isn't on the table?

If Ian Snell is the goat (and way to step up in these gift starts, champ), the runner up for goat status has to go to former Angel Chone Figgins, who continues to find ways to stink it up in games against his old team. Wak might not be too far out of line just to bench Chone in games against the Angels, as it seems like he's charitable with gifts to his old team, whether it's a timely miss on a grounder in the field, an inning killing strikeout or a pitcher-bailing double play ball. I'm not going to say Chone's taking a dive to help his old friends out, but we're rapidly approaching the point where, much like you can expect Jose Lopez not to hit during cold weather months, you can expect bad games from Chone Figgins when his old team comes calling.

The M's probably need to go anywhere from 63-45 to 71-37 the rest of the way to have a decent shot at the playoffs. They need to run off a couple of six game winning streaks just to get themselves back into the picture. I'm not seeing it happen with this group, a group that rolled over and played dead against the hittably awful Joe Saunders once Snell let the Angels build a big lead.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-3-2010 (Seattle 4, Minnesota 1)

2010-06-04T00:28:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
MIN	Carl Pavano	0.102	0.000	0.367	-0.265	0.000	3.78	21
MIN	Joe Mauer	-1.207	-0.425	0.000	-0.782	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Justin Morneau	0.290	0.290	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Matt Tolbert	-0.464	-0.826	0.000	0.362	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Danny Valencia	-0.469	-0.267	0.000	-0.202	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Nick Punto	-0.408	-0.553	0.000	0.145	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Delmon Young	0.084	-0.603	0.000	0.904	-0.217	0.00	0
MIN	Denard Span	1.300	-0.228	0.000	1.528	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jason Kubel	-0.955	-0.359	0.000	-0.596	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jim Thome	-0.574	-0.574	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jesse Crain	0.355	0.000	0.355	0.000	0.000	1.25	3
MIN	MIN Luckbox	0.470	0.217	0.000	0.253	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Ron Gardenhire	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Felix Hernandez	0.284	0.000	0.284	0.000	0.000	3.92	24
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.808	-0.374	0.000	-0.217	-0.217	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.858	-0.722	0.000	-0.136	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	-0.757	-0.979	0.000	0.222	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	1.451	1.945	0.000	-0.494	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	1.013	0.146	0.000	0.760	0.107	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	1.606	0.778	0.000	1.023	-0.195	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.080	-0.478	0.000	0.558	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	2.135	0.312	0.000	1.407	0.416	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	-0.505	-0.505	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	0.138	0.000	0.138	0.000	0.000	3.06	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	2.029	0.000	0.000	-2.029	0.000	0.00	0

Player of the Game: Ichiro (2.135 NRuns: 0.312 hitting, 1.407 fielding, 0.416 running)
Mariners with more than 1.000 NRuns: 4 (Ichiro, Saunders, Lopez, Josh Wilson)

Mariners defense: 3.123 NRuns

Goat: Joe Mauer (-1.207 NRuns: -0.425 hitting, -0.782 fielding)

******

The only reason Felix Hernandez didn't have a great Net Runs today were his 1st and 3rd innings. The one run 1st came about through two line drives, and he led off the 3rd with a walk before allowing a line drive (that thankfully was caught by Ichiro). The rest of his day was excellent, especially those four strikeouts in the 8th inning. Thanks to Rob Johnson for enabling that by failing for block a strike three curveball in the dirt.

No further comment.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-2-2010 (Seattle 2, Minnesota 1, 10 innings)

2010-06-02T22:56:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
MIN	Kevin Slowey	0.442	0.000	0.005	0.437	0.000	4.21	21
MIN	Joe Mauer	0.009	0.415	0.000	-0.406	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Justin Morneau	0.294	0.294	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Matt Tolbert	-1.971	-0.240	0.000	-1.297	-0.434	0.00	0
MIN	Nick Punto	-0.705	-0.288	0.000	-0.417	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	JJ Hardy	0.926	-0.743	0.000	1.669	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Delmon Young	0.336	-0.862	0.000	1.198	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Denard Span	-0.205	-0.722	0.000	0.517	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Michael Cuddyer	0.886	-0.034	0.000	0.920	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jason Kubel	-1.497	-1.497	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jim Thome	-0.098	-0.098	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Brendan Harris	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jesse Crain	-0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000	0.000	6.32	3
MIN	Matt Guerrier	0.222	0.000	0.077	0.145	0.000	3.83	5
MIN	Jose Mijares	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	MIN Luckbox	0.159	0.159	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Ron Gardenhire	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Cliff Lee	0.518	0.000	0.349	0.169	0.000	3.85	24
SEA	Rob Johnson	-0.417	-0.692	0.000	0.275	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.085	-0.008	0.000	0.757	-0.834	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	0.181	-0.386	0.000	0.567	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	-0.407	-0.194	0.000	-0.213	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.534	-0.408	0.000	0.942	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	2.288	0.498	0.000	1.384	0.406	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.316	-0.051	0.000	1.367	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.193	-0.346	0.000	0.153	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-0.938	-0.938	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Langerhans	0.672	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.672	0.00	0
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	-0.315	-0.315	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	David Aardsma	-0.886	0.000	-0.886	0.000	0.000	11.61	3
SEA	Brandon League	0.138	0.000	0.138	0.000	0.000	3.06	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	0.952	0.000	0.000	-0.952	0.000	0.00	0

How Net Runs works

Player of the Game: Milton Bradley (2.288 NRuns: 0.498 hitting, 1.384 fielding, 0.406 running)

Mariners defense: 5.401 NRuns
Positive Mariners hitting contributions other than Bradley: 0
Mariners hitting: -2.840 NRuns

Goat: Matt Tolbert (-1.971 NRuns: -0.240 hitting, -1.297 fielding, -0.434 running)

******

On the heels of Ken Griffey Jr's sudden retirement (and that's a subject for another time), the M's gave a spirited but sputtering effort at the plate, squeezing home both of their runs on small ballish plays. Milton Bradley had a great game and his two steals proved instrumental in scoring the first run, while Ichiro's flukish single led to a run thanks to Ryan Langerhans picking a good time to get aggressive, with Twins 2B Matt Tolbert floating an ill-fated toss to short for the force out on Wilson. Once it failed and Langerhans was well on his way home, JJ Hardy had no chance to get him.

Both teams got decent pitching. Cliff Lee didn't have his best game (3.85 EXERA) but the M's defense saved over five runs in a massive performance today. Kevin Slowey had an average day and the M's just couldn't score any runs off of him. They typically need to draw walks to succeed and it's hard to draw walks off a pitcher who never issues them like Slowey.

That is all. very busy day today.

Armando Galarraga made history today

2010-06-02T20:23:00.000-07:00

Armando Galarraga became more famous in not achieving a perfect game than he would have if he did.

With two outs in the top 9th, Indians shortstop Jason Donald grounded to the right side and Miguel Cabrera snared it, fired to Galarraga covering 1st to beat Donald by about 4-5 feet, and 1B umpire Jim Joyce called him safe. The Tigers were not amused... well, except for Galarraga himself.

It's almost as if Galarraga, in realizing he HAD earned a perfect game whether Jim Joyce agreed or not, also realized that he had just taken a front row seat in the moment of what will likely become one of the most famous blown calls in MLB history.

Joyce, to his credit, knows he blew the call and feels terrible. But the moment underscores a looming problem in MLB, the human error of umpires and their impact on the game. MLB, stubbornly resisting any steps to formally second guess their umpires, grudgingly adopted instant replay on home run calls, a very limited basis, this past year. That didn't stop the drumbeat to expand replay and corrective procedures to everything from base calls to balls and strikes, a drumbeat that grows with every blown umpire call, calls that unfortunately happen on a regular basis in almost every game played.

MLB is trying to do everything to avoid what they should do. The scorer is allegedly looking into scoring the Donald play as an error to credit Galarraga with a bastardized no hitter, even though there clearly was no error on the play. Such a 'correction' would be a bigger disgrace than the blown call itself.

There is only one way MLB can fix this in the short term. Commissioner Bud Selig has the power of Special Action, basically a hand of god. He used it to call off the All Star Game in Milwaukee, the infamous 11 inning tie game, and used it to extend a World Series game that honestly should have been called off early.

Since the Donald hit had no bearing on the outcome of the game (Galarraga got the next batter out to end it), Selig should take a Special Action to have Donald declared rightfully out on the play to end the game, and award Galarraga with the perfect game that he clearly earned.

A perfect way to mitigate the lack of opportunity for a team and home crowd celebration would be to fly into Detroit tomorrow, have Selig go out to the field before the game and announce this decision. It would give the team and fans a chance to celebrate the accomplishment before the game, with a bonus handshake from the Commissioner. Then they can play the day's game as scheduled.

Of course, it's highly unlikely Bud Selig makes such an overriding and undermining decision if he can help it, which is a shame given this is one of the few times the umpire in question has openly admitted to blowing a key call. This is a special case that deserves such an exception, and Selig can argue that there would not be a need for it again anytime soon.

But in any case, even if nothing is done to mitigate today's injustice, Armando Galarraga has been immortalized even moreso for throwing a perfect game that was taken away at the very end by a blown call. No other pitcher could ever claim such a feat. Like Harvey Haddix's 12 perfect innings, and Ernie Shore relieving Babe Ruth after a leadoff ejection and retiring the next 27 batters, Galarraga may not get his name on the list of perfect game hurlers, but he has now earned a special and more unique place in history... especially if this incident leads to changes in MLB's instant replay and umpiring policy.

No one is going to forget what happened with Armando Galarraga today.

Should Ryan Howard be more aggressive?

2010-06-02T12:12:00.000-07:00

Pat Andriola postulated that Ryan Howard's not helping himself by putting more balls in play as he gets older, leaning back on the Moneyball adage that sluggers should try to take more walks as they age. Howard instead had cut down on his high K rate and his walk rate by being more aggressive.

A brief look at his swing rates: With pitchers pitching around him more than ever (the 42.4% pitches thrown in the zone are the lowest rate he's seen in his career), Howard is swinging at more balls out of the zone (32.6%, up from his usual 25-27%) even though he's swinging at nearly 9% fewer balls in the zone, and is by a hair running the highest contact rate (69.7%) of his career. It's not a drastic move on his part, but Howard is to some extent being more aggressive at the plate despite pitchers pitching around him more than ever.

There are various ways to look at the issue. Howard is slow so while he could draw more walks he'd clog up the basepaths when he does, hindering the efforts of hitters behind him in the order. On the flip side, by swinging more he's generating more outs, even if he might generate more power.

But let's focus on the numbers. I decided to use his batted ball rates to estimate a difference between his current approach and his previous approach, and then estimate numbers based on the suggested approach (be patient, take more walks) to compare.

So let's take his current averages on balls in play and estimate how he would do. Howard's career numbers by BIP:

GB: .205 AVG, .209 SLG
FB: .417 AVG, 1.382 SLG
LD ISO: .338

For his line drives, we'll use his isolated power to determine his LD slugging but use a static .732 average for LD since LD averages tend to fall in the same range regardless of player.

Now this season he has seen a noticeable decline in his power. His isolated power on flyballs, at .965 over his career, has dipped sharply to .560. His 2010 numbers:

GB: .257 AVG, .257 SLG
FB: .240 AVG, .800 SLG
LD ISO: .235

Now, GB rates tend to be consistent for a player over his career as footspeed is a big factor. So for this projection I'll use his career AVG/SLG of .205 and .209. I expect his current .257 AVG will regress over time. I'll use his 2010 FB rates as those are largely determined by power and ability, and for his LD rates I'll again use the standard .732 AVG and tack on his revised ISO for 2010 to get a LD slugging of .967.

So here are the batted ball averages I'll use as we continue:

GB: .205 AVG, .209 SLG
FB: .240 AVG, .800 SLG
LD: .732 AVG, .967 SLG

Let's take these revised averages and apply them along with his career walk, strikeout and batted ball rates over 500 hypothetical plate appearances to estimate how this new and dis-improved Ryan Howard would hit if he didn't change a thing:

Walk: 12.6%
Strikeout: 32.2%
GB %: 39.1%
LD %: 23.2%
FB %: 37.7%

AB: 439
H: 94
TB: 169
BB: 63
K: 161
AVG/OBP/SLG... OPS: .214/.314/.385... .699

Yeah, that's the look of a player that's done. So can't blame Ryan Howard for trying to change his game.

Now, let's take his current batted ball rates and his current walk and K rates to estimate how he'd do over 500 hypothetical PAs.

Walk: 7.6%
Strikeout: 25.6%
GB %: 43.5%
LD %: 22.1%
FB %: 34.4%

AB: 462
H: 111
TB: 194
BB: 38
K: 128
AVG/OBP/SLG... OPS: .240/.298/.420... .718

Still not good, but better than he would do otherwise. He'd get on base less, but he'd hit for higher average (on average) and he'd hit for more power.

However, we should also estimate how he'd do with the advised approach, taking more pitches and trying to draw more walks. To estimate his walk and K rates, we thankfully have a relatively close approximation of a season where he saw a similarly low number of pitches in the zone: His spectacular 2007 season. That year he saw 44.4% of pitches hit the zone, and in that season he drew walks in a career high 16.5% of his PAs. However, he also whiffed a career high 37.6% of the time.

Let's make some assumptions: Given he's watching 57.6% of pitches miss the zone, if he were to take pitches accordingly he could almost match that 16% walk rate. He's going to K a lot, but his eye has improved from 2007 and his K rate will be a bit lower... more like 35%. He's still going to strike out a lot as age erodes his already limited ability to recognize and make contact with pitches in the zone, and as he takes more pitches to try and work more walks and/or wait for pitches to hit.

Let's assume his current batted ball rates will match his batted ball rates going forward and estimate a line over 500 hypothetical PAs.

Walk: 16.0%
Strikeout: 35.0%
GB %: 43.5%
LD %: 22.1%
FB %: 34.4%

AB: 420
H: 82
TB: 142
BB: 80
K: 175
AVG/OBP/SLG... OPS: .195/.324/.338... .662

Ewwwwwwww. If Ryan Howard were to take the suggested approach, he'd draw more walks... at the expense of pretty much everything else, and his collapse would be even MORE pronounced than had he done nothing.

So maybe, by electing to get more aggressive, Ryan Howard is on to something. All that aside, he is in a loaded lineup full of great players, and he's going to drive more of them in by hitting the ball than by drawing free passes, and I go back to the first point about his slowness clogging up the basepaths and limiting the hitters behind him when he does take walks. And most of all, he just signed a ridiculous $125 million extension, and they're not paying him to draw 80 walks. They're paying him to swing the bat and drive in his teammates.

But the averages themselves show that the suggested approach of patience, whether it worked for David Justice in a bygone era or not, would not work for Ryan Howard. It would kill his career faster than he would by staying the course and waiting for collapse. His increased aggression may not get him on base as much, but it's probably going to extend his career a couple years longer...

... assuming, of course, that this is a permanent adjustment and not just the product of random noise from his first two months of the season. But if and when he needs to adjust, history indicates he's better served playing to his strengths as a power hitter and focusing on hitting the ball, rather than playing to his weaknesses and trying to work ball four before taking strike three, and clogging the basepaths.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 6-1-2010 (Seattle 7, Minnesota 1)

2010-06-02T00:34:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
MIN	Nick Blackburn	-1.450	0.000	-1.450	0.000	0.000	7.51	11
MIN	Joe Mauer	-0.386	-0.002	0.000	-0.384	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Justin Morneau	-0.316	-0.223	0.000	0.124	-0.217	0.00	0
MIN	Nick Punto	-0.695	0.011	0.000	-0.706	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Brendan Harris	-1.484	-0.829	0.000	-0.655	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	JJ Hardy	0.100	0.346	0.000	-0.246	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Delmon Young	0.961	-0.457	0.000	1.281	0.137	0.00	0
MIN	Denard Span	-1.023	-1.078	0.000	0.055	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Michael Cuddyer	-1.194	-0.805	0.000	-0.389	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jason Kubel	-0.428	-0.428	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Alex Burnett	1.090	0.000	1.090	0.000	0.000	0.32	7
MIN	Ron Mahay	-0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000	0.000	6.81	3
MIN	Brian Duensing	0.166	0.000	0.166	0.000	0.000	2.83	3
MIN	MIN Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Ron Gardenhire	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Jason Vargas	-1.399	0.000	-2.303	0.904	0.000	6.96	21
SEA	Eliezer Alfonzo	0.015	0.152	0.000	-0.137	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	1.976	0.426	0.000	1.550	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	2.456	1.828	0.000	0.491	0.137	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	2.036	2.031	0.000	0.005	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	0.535	-0.596	0.000	1.131	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	0.241	-1.002	0.000	1.243	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	-0.177	-0.463	0.000	0.286	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	1.921	1.087	0.000	0.834	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-0.887	-0.053	0.000	0.000	-0.834	0.00	0
SEA	Shawn Kelley	0.355	0.000	0.355	0.000	0.000	1.25	3
SEA	Garrett Olson	-0.328	0.000	-0.328	0.000	0.000	6.95	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.247	0.247	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	2.021	0.000	0.000	-2.021	0.000	0.00	0

How Net Runs works

Player of the Game: Chone Figgins (2.456 NRuns: 1.828 hitting, 0.491 fielding, 0.137 running)
Also: Jose Lopez (2.036 NRuns: 2.031 hitting, 0.005 fielding)

Positive Mariner contributions: 8
Negative Mariner contributions: 4

Mariners hitting: 3.410 NRuns
Mariners defense: 6.307 NRuns
Mariners pitching: -2.276 NRuns

Positive Twins contributions: 4
Negative Twins contributions: 9

Twins with less than -1.000 NRuns: 4 (Nick Blackburn, Brendan Harris, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer)

Starting pitchers for both teams: -3.753 NRuns

Goat: Brendan Harris (-1.484 NRuns: -0.829 hitting, -0.655 fielding)
Almost goat: Nick Blackburn (-1.450 pitching NRuns... 7.51 EXERA)

******

It's late so this will be brief.

A rare banner day at the plate for the M's overshadowed the defense masking a bad game by Jason Vargas. Vargas got away with a LOT of line drives and walks today in stringing together seven strong innings. The 1st inning was bad, the 2nd... mehhhhhh, the 3rd was bad, the 4th was good, the 5th was bad (and nice job snaring that comebacker, Jason), the 6th wasn't too hot and the 7th to his credit was good. Many point to Doug Fister being all smoke and mirrors, but really of the upstart SPs, Jason Vargas has been the one tiptoeing through line drives and flyballs thanks to good outcomes. He has had decent games per EXERA, but between he and Fister, Vargas is the more likely to regress over time. Thankfully, his defense was terrific and Nick Blackburn was even worse than he was.

The defense deserves credit for an exceptional, almost flawless game. Save for Delmon Young swiping a base off Eliezer Alfonzo, everyone for the M's positively contributed in the field. Casey Kotchman had a great game at 1B, Josh Wilson deserves credit in light of recent struggles for a great game at SS, and Michael Saunders undid a bad day at the plate with a good day in LF.

Chone Figgins really needed a good game at the plate like he had today, as did Jose Lopez. To a lesser extent, Casey Kotchman really needed a big hit to fall for him as well and he got it late.

Good job Mariners. Another 73 games like this before October 3 and maybe you'll make the playoffs.

How To Shake Up a Losing Team

2010-06-01T18:35:00.000-07:00

Right now, the biggest endemic problem behind the Mariners' continued futility (aside obviously from bad fortune and a relative lack of talent) is Don Wakamatsu's insistence on affixing and entitling players to roles.

Last year, a big part of the team's success lied behind Wak's constant reshuffling and tinkering of the existing roster, hitting, pitching and playing nearly everyone in different lineup spots, different bullpen situations, different substitution roles, different lots of things, unless guys showed a consistent demonstrated in-season ability to produce at a given spot. History and track records were largely ignored.

Save for Griffey in the 5 hole, Wak didn't let a bad hitter hit 2nd or 3rd while leaving a good hitter to either bat 8th or rot on the bench in 2009. He didn't balk at letting slugger Russell Branyan bat 2nd just because he was "not a #2 hitter" or because "he's a middle of the order bat". Save for Ichiro at RF and batting leadoff, Wak mixed and matched a lot of different lineups, often moving guys up if they were hitting well and moving guys down if they weren't.

This year, however, he's insistently batted Chone Figgins 2nd despite weak production, insistently batted Milton Bradley 4th or Griffey 5th despite weak production, insistently batted Josh Wilson 7th-9th despite actual production, and insistently refused to play Ryan Langerhans despite actual production when he has played.

The bullpen is no different. He's insistently turned to Sean White and Brandon League in pressure situations because he doesn't trust the other pitchers... even though he turned to everybody last year without regard to whether he could "trust X pitcher in a pressure situation". That's how short reliever David Aardsma got the chance to establish himself as the closer last year.

******

If Wak wants to help turn this ship around (whether or not it's too late and you could have argued it was weeks ago), he needs to ditch the roles and start mixing up the lineups again. If a guy's hot, hit him higher in the order even if your scouts say the guy blows. Let him prove he blows, and then move him down or bench him in favor of someone else that's hitting hot. Take Langerhans and Saunders off the bench and play them 3-4 times a week... somewhere, ANYWHERE. Let Langerhans start at 1B or LF vs LHPs. Maybe Wak will finally learn that he can hit lefties (psst, Langerhans CAN hit LHPs). Start Griffey in LF and- no, just kidding, let that old man sleep, and wake him if you need a PH in the 9th.

Take your starting lineup and bat the guys based on their numbers. Go ahead and bat Ichiro leadoff. Have the two other highest OPS hitters bat 3rd and 4th. Take the next highest OBP and bat that guy 2nd. Then sort the 5-9 hitters by slugging %. If you want, put the fastest guy or the best remaining OBP at #9. Do this every night even if it means putting someone in a lineup spot he doesn't seem to belong in. What, the guys you're batting 3rd belong there now? Is that how the M's landed dead last in offense?

Here's a sample of what I'd consider an optimal hitting lineup given stats as of 5-31-2010. Langerhans would, as he's done a few times this year, play 1B, Sweeney would DH and Bradley would play LF. You could mix/match that around and have Bradley DH, Sweeney play 1B and Langerhans play LF if you'd like.

Ichiro 9
Guti 8
Bard 2
Langerhans 3
Sweeney 0
Wilson 6
Bradley 7
Lopez 5
Figgins 4

Here would be the optimal lineup that benches Milton Bradley, which may not be in the team's best interests as despite his numbers he's actually a good hitter, but is true to the hitting numbers as his are among the team's lowest:

Ichiro 9
Guti 8
Bard 2
Langerhans 3
Sweeney 0
Saunders 7
Wilson 6
Lopez 5
Figgins 4

The bullpen: Wak ought to put the relievers on a rotation and use them regularly regardless of the situation. Put Shawn Kelley in that pressure situation. Pitch Sean White in the 7th even if we're up 6 or down 7. Go ahead and bring Aardsma in for the 9th in a tie game or if we're down one.

This is admittedly an idealist proposal: There's no way Wak's getting away from the closer role. In any case, I'd ideally keep a loose rotation of three tandems of relievers (one durable middle man and one short reliever), with each day's designated tandem working in relief of the starter after he faced 27 batters (the entire order three times).

The middle men would be more durable and expected to work multiple innings to bridge the gap between the starter and short reliever, while the short man would be expected to get the last 2-4 outs. Each tandem first lists the long/middle man, then the short man.

Tandem 1: Sean White, David Aardsma
Tandem 2: Garrett Olson, Shawn Kelley
Tandem 3: Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brandon League

This is from the existing pool of six Mariners relievers and is balanced out: White is probably the best of the three middle men and he is paired with the most unreliable of the short men, which ironically is the current closer Aardsma. Kelley and League just happen to be more reliable short men than Aardsma. Likewise, RRS is probably the least reliable of the long/middle men and gets paired with the more reliable short man Brandon League.

This would not be a firm rotation: Sometimes the starter goes the distance, some relievers may recover quicker than others, and adverse situations (like the starter getting destroyed and leaving the bullpen 5-7 innings of relief) may require burning more than two relievers. But given the starters are mostly working deep into games, 6-8 innings, it's not too much to try and stick to a rotation where relievers would be assured of work every 3 games, with 2-3 days of rest between outing. And of course, guys can improve or devolve, and a guy lower on the chain may prove to be more reliable than originally thought, and vice versa.

Tandem One goes on day one, T2 on day 2, T3 on day 3 and then back to T1 on day 4 and so on. And yes, you send them out there in their given order no matter what the score is. If Aardsma enters with a 10-1 lead, whatever. If Shawn Kelley inherits a save situation, so be it. Once the starter faces the lineup three full times, yank him and put in the middle reliever.

Have the middle reliever get to the 9th, whether that takes 2 pitches or four innings (all three middle men have starting experience and can easily stretch out to handle that sort of workload). At least have the middle man face the lineup a full time (9 batters), then put in the short guy to finish. This should work fine at least 90% of the time given this defense, the rotation and the home park. Rarely should the short man come in with 3-4 innings left (if he does, it's because someone got hurt or you're getting annihilated). If that's the case, burn another reliever depending on rest and whatever else and reorganize as need be.

If you have to jack around with the system and overuse guys, just make sure everyone gets as much rest as you can get them. At this point in a lost season it's not so much about winning as it is about getting guys regular work and making sure they stay as fresh as possible over the entire season.

But it's in the Mariners best interests at this point to get away from roles like the "8th inning fireman" and "#2 hitter" and "#8 hitter", because the roles obviously haven't helped this 19-31 team win. What's the worst that can happen if you do? They keep losing? Well, maybe if they do we'll at least learn something new about these players (maybe even something useful) if you get them out of the comfort zones you've insisted on maintaining despite those comfort zones landing you 11 games under .500 in 2010.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 5-31-2010 (Minnesota 5, Seattle 4)

2010-05-31T23:17:00.000-07:00

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
MIN	Francisco Liriano	0.616	0.000	0.616	0.000	0.000	3.36	18
MIN	Joe Mauer	-0.709	-0.392	0.000	-0.317	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Justin Morneau	1.552	1.172	0.000	0.439	-0.059	0.00	0
MIN	Michael Cuddyer	0.296	1.191	0.000	-0.895	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Nick Punto	-0.271	-0.520	0.000	0.249	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	JJ Hardy	-1.890	-0.897	0.000	-0.559	-0.434	0.00	0
MIN	Delmon Young	2.039	1.457	0.000	0.582	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Denard Span	-0.090	-0.297	0.000	0.207	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jason Kubel	-0.441	-0.044	0.000	-0.397	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jim Thome	-0.722	-0.288	0.000	0.000	-0.434	0.00	0
MIN	Alexi Casilla	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Brendan Harris	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Jesse Crain	0.424	0.000	0.424	0.000	0.000	0.68	3
MIN	Matt Guerrier	0.143	0.000	0.143	0.000	0.000	3.02	3
MIN	Jon Rauch	-0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000	0.000	6.17	3
MIN	MIN Luckbox	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
MIN	Ron Gardenhire	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0

Team	Player	Net Runs	Hit	Pitch	Def	Base	EXERA	PitOuts
SEA	Doug Fister	0.160	0.000	0.160	0.000	0.000	4.04	23
SEA	Rob Johnson	-1.122	-1.122	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Matt Tuiasosopo	-1.446	-0.936	0.000	-0.510	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Chone Figgins	1.318	0.840	0.000	0.231	0.247	0.00	0
SEA	Jose Lopez	1.850	0.365	0.000	1.485	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Josh Wilson	1.598	1.595	0.000	0.003	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Milton Bradley	0.608	-0.284	0.000	0.892	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	1.152	0.234	0.000	0.918	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ichiro Suzuki	-0.401	-0.228	0.000	-0.173	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Mike Sweeney	-0.651	-0.651	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ken Griffey Jr	-0.390	-0.390	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Michael Saunders	-0.324	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.324	0.00	0
SEA	Casey Kotchman	-0.208	-0.208	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Ryan Rowland-Smith	-0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000	0.000	15.95	1
SEA	Brandon League	0.279	0.000	0.279	0.000	0.000	1.89	3
SEA	SEA Luckbox	0.317	0.317	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
SEA	Don Wakamatsu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00	0
	Safeco Field	2.983	0.000	0.000	-2.983	0.000	0.00	0

How Net Runs works

Player of the Game: Delmon Young (2.039 NRuns: 1.457 hitting, 0.582 fielding)
Also pretty good: Justin Morneau (1.552 NRuns: 1.172 hitting, 0.439 fielding, -0.059 running)

Mariners Player of the Game: Jose Lopez (1.850 NRuns: 0.365 hitting, 1.485 fielding)
Mariners with more than 1.000 NRuns contributed: 4 (Lopez, Josh Wilson, Franklin Gutierrez, Chone Figgins)

Mariners defense: 2.846 NRuns
Rob Johnson and Matt Tuiasosopo: -2.058 hitting NRuns
Mike Sweeney and pinch hitters (Griffey, Kotchman): -1.249 hitting NRuns
Rest of Mariners hitters: 2.522 NRuns

Goat: JJ Hardy (-1.890 NRuns: -0.897 hitting, -0.559 fielding, -0.434 running)

******

I'm tired of talking about the futility of losses in what's become a lost season, so I'll focus on the simpler, productive details.

Francisco Liriano and Doug Fister pitched much better games than their lines indicate. The final was 5-4 but had more of the makings of a 3-2 game. Fister's had better games but not only did he show veteran caliber backbone in shaking off five flash runs and pitching into the 8th, but 5 of his 7 full innings were 1-2-3 frames. Save for the two bad frames (flyballs and line drives are going to happen: It's just a matter of minimizing them), Fister was solid yet again. Those of you waiting for him to plummet back to replacement level Earth... once again have to wait another week.

Liriano seemed like he got into a lot of trouble, and... well... he kind of did, but killed a lot of rallies with big strikeout after big strikeout... though I guess getting to face Rob Johnson and Matt Tuiasosopo certainly helps.

Don Wakamatsu finally got the hint with Josh Wilson and let the surprisingly productive shortstop hit during a pressure situation in the 9th, only to see Wilson come up with an RBI single. Probably not a bad idea to try that again. Actually, Wak also made good moves in pinch hitting Griffey and Kotchman, even if both produced rally-killer outs to end the game. Griffey and Kotchman are much better bets to produce in a tight spot than Rob and Tui.

Brandon League's going to get kudos for getting the M's out of a two runner, no out jam in the top 9th, and truth be told he did a fine job with three groundballs. But the credit belongs mainly to a guy who has caught a lot of flak lately: Jose Lopez.

On a double play ball, Lopez could have gone for the 5-4-3 and conceded the run. He also could have checked Justin Morneau back to 3rd and taken the out at 1st (though that would have put runners at 2nd and 3rd and Wak likely would have responded with yet another stupid intentional walk). Instead, Morneau helped Lopez out by breaking for home a little too soon and being forced to commit to his ill-fated run, giving Lopez the easy decision to throw home and get Morneau for the 1st out AND save a run. Lopez already had made a solid play by keeping Cuddyer's ground in the infield (0.481 NRuns), but added another 0.218 runs by getting the out at home.

Lopez then finished the inning by snagging the other two League grounders and converting both into outs. Lopez's work that inning was worth 1.485 NRuns, pretty much cleaning up the mess that Ryan Rowland-Smith had left Brandon League. Nicely done.